Atlanta has been having trouble scoring runs this year, and is currently on a 2-8 skid that included sweeps by the Marlins and Giants. To get an idea of how awful the Braves offense has been, they have score 24 runs fewer than the mighty Cubs offense. Ouch. We could see less than 15 total runs scored this entire series.
They’ve managed to compensate by allowing the fewest runs in the NL, which is pretty surprising considering their pitchers pretty much live in Dr. James Andrews’s waiting room these days.
Team Overviews
Cubes
- wRC+: 80 (14th)
- BSR: 2.3 (2nd)
- UZR: 1.4 (8th)
- DRS: 6 (10th)
- SP FIP-: 86 (2nd)
- RP FIP-: 107 (11th)
Barves
- wRC+: 88 (11th)
- BSR: 2.3 (3rd)
- UZR: 16.3 (2nd)
- DRS: 26 (2nd)
- SP FIP-: 89 (4th)
- RP FIP-: 65 (1st)
It’s tough to pin down what exactly is causing the Braves offensive woes. As noted above, their wRC+ number is much better than you’d think for a team that’s been outscored by the Cubs. The main thing that jumps out is that they and the Cubs are tied for the worst strikeout rate in the NL, but they don’t have any BABIP issues or anything like that to speak of. I guess it’s just the hitter equivalent of strand rate. Justin Upton and Freeman have been hitting the cover off the ball, but it’s been a huge dropoff to the rest of the lineup. Even with his .420 wOBA Justin Upton has posted a whopping 34.1% strikeout rate. His brother, meanwhile, has posted a .212/.293/.331 line with a strikeout rate nearly as high. Rounding out the OF is Jason Heyward‘s .209/.295/.310. Ouch. 3B Chris Johnson was recently rewarded with a contract extension, hopefully not on the basis of his .246/.274/.322 line this year.
News, notes, blood oaths, etc.
Pedro Strop hit the DL with a groin strain earlier this week following his implosion in Tuesday night’s game. He’ll join Jose Veras in his mysterious quest to find the strike zone.
Ervin Santana missed his last start with a thumb injury, but is feeling fine after throwing a bullpen session on Wednesday and should make his scheduled start in this series.
Gavin Floyd joined the Braves rotation last week, his first start back after going under the knife for Frank Jobe surgery last spring.
Jed Hoyer had nice things to say about Renteria’s performance so far. Now that it seems like the Cubs aren’t bunting all over the place anymore, I’d mostly agree. He’s made some questionable decisions with the bullpen, but you could say that about any manager.
Pitching Matchups
ERA, projected FIP, current xFIP listed for each pitcher
Friday: Jason Hammel, RHP (2.43, 4.05, 3.53) vs Julio Teheran, RHP (1.80, 3.64, 3.88), 6:35 PM CT
Both pitchers have been solid so far this year. Hammel has bumped up his strikeout rate and has only walked nine batters over his six starts. He threw a quality start against the Cards in his last outing, though arguably his least effective start of the year as he only went six innings.
Teheran’s 1.80 ERA is not surprising given his .207 BABIP and 87.4% strand rate, but he’s a solid pitcher regardless. He throws a good mix of plus pitches, including a sinker, slider, change, and occasional cutter. His slider is extra slide-y, and would be giving Junior Lake headaches if he were in the lineup today.
Saturday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (1.62, 3.42, 3.50) vs Ervin Santana, RHP (2.41, 3.56, 2.61), 6:10 PM CT
The big story from Shark’s last start was that he was left in to throw a ton of pitches. I don’t really care that much about the pitch count (Shark, like Z is a guy who can rack those up), I’m more annoyed that leaving him in seemed to have more to do with ‘getting him a W’ than any particular game strategy – he batted for himself in the 8th during a tie game, and was left in the ninth even after a few baserunners. Wesley Wright was warmed up and ready to take on, say, Dunn after Abreu walked. Shark got out of it with a double play ball but it all seemed kind of unnecessary.
The National League has been very kind to Santana, who has seen his strikeout rate increase by nearly 50% in the small sample of starts he’s had so far. Combine that with a smidge of HR/FB luck and his peripherals and ERA are pretty much spot on. I’ve always remembered Santana as a guy who couldn’t stay healthy, so I’m surprised to see that he’s only failed to throw at least 30 starts twice since he became a full time starter in 2006. Curse you, brain.
Sunday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.57, 3.66, 3.96) vs Gavin Floyd, RHP (1.29, 3.83, 3.06), 12:25 PM CT
Jackson finally had the start we’ve been waiting to see from him for months. He went seven innings, striking out nine batters and walking none and allowing just one run. He doesn’t have TWTW though, and thus didn’t pick up the W. This Braves offense could be just what he needs to get in a groove.
Floyd’s first start back from TJS was a surprisingly long one, with seven innings and 100+ pitches. His pitch velocities in the start were almost exactly on his career averages, so I guess there’s probably no worries there. I must say that I’m happy that he’s not on the White Sox anymore, since I he and John Danks were always the same pitcher in my head.