Series Preview: Cubs (75-71) at Rockies (55-92)

In Series Previews by berselius187 Comments

I’m on mini-vacation to catch this series, so I figure the least I could do was actually write a post for once (dying laughing). The Rockies were eliminated some time ago, obviously, but at least I still get some vaguely relevant Cubs baseball. Since it’s pretty much just the Barves and Mets that the Cubs are chasing now, here’s the current state of the race for the third wild card per fangraphs playoff odds:

  • Mets: 80-66, 56.3% chance to make playoffs
  • Barves: 79-67, 55.8% chance to make playoffs
  • Cubs: 75-71, 1.0% chance to make playoffs

Just for fun, if the Cubs won out, they would end with 91 wins. If they do the win-every-series 66% winning percentage, they’d end up with 86 wins. Oddly enough, in the preseason 86 kind of felt meh but now that my mindset is more in the ‘games over 500’, being 10 games over feels like a TON (dying laughing).

There’s not much to be said about the Rockies this season that wasn’t already said in the 2023 preseason. Their decision to sign Bryant after trading Arenado due to salary demands looks even worse than it did a year ago, and public comments from their ownership still seems to think they have a contending team that just caught a few bad breaks. But hey, at least Coors Field is nice.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.241)
  • HR: Happ (23)
  • R+RBI: Happ (163)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (133)
  • SB: Hoerner (28)
  • BSR: PCA (5.2)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.1)
  • SP K/9: Steele (9.21)
  • SP BB/9: Imanaga (1.40)
  • SP FIP: Steele (3.13)
  • RP K/9: Thompson (11.42)
  • RP BB/9: Pearson (0.93)
  • RP FIP: Hodge (2.52)
  • WAR: Happ (3.6)

Rocks

  • OBP: Jacob Stallings (.356)
  • ISO: Michael Toglia (.249)
  • HR: Toglia (23)
  • R+RBI: Brenton Doyle (146)
  • wRC+: Stallings (111)
  • SB: Doyle (27)
  • BSR: Doyle (4.9)
  • Defense: Eziquiel Tovar (13.8)
  • SP K/9: Ryan Feltner (7.96)
  • SP BB/9: Austin Gomber (2.13)
  • SP FIP: Feltner (4.23)
  • RP K/9: Tyler Kinley (10.05)
  • RP BB/9: Angel Chivilli (1.50)
  • RP FIP: Vikton Vodnil (3.83)
  • WAR: Doyle (3.8)

Doyle is a great center fielder, and is probably PCA’s main competition for a GG this year. Aside from having a leg up from playing the full season, he also won it last year.

Who isn’t available

I’m too lazy to look up the rest of the chatbot-generated names on the Rockies roster, so I’ll just note that Kris Bryant has been on the IL since mid August with a back injury. His healthy stints between IL trips this year were 13 games, 11 games, and 13 games. Sad face.

Cubs-wise, Justin Steele threw off a mound earlier this week and could be back before the end of the season. But unless the Cubs kick off a giant winning streak, meh on pushing him. Wesneski is working his way back from a forearm strain and is throwing to hitters in AZ. Julian Merryweather and Jorge Lopez may be back soon as well.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, and FIP listed for each.

Friday: Javier Assad, RHP (7.59, 3.83, 3.14, 4.46) vs Austin Gomber, LHP (6.39, 2.13, 4.50, 4.79), 7:40 PM CT

Saturday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (6.95, 1.72, 3.57, 3.98) vs Kyle Freeland, LHP (7.13, 2.25, 4.97, 4.27), 7:10 PM CT

Sunday: Cyle Hendricks, RHP (6.11, 2.97, 6.51, 5.21) vs Cal Quantrill (?), RHP (6.72, 3.72, 4.63, 5.04), 2:10 PM CT

I bought nice seats by the Cubs dugout for the Sunday game before knowing that Cyle would likely get the start. 2024 vintage Cyle at Coors might not be the greatest combo to watch, but I’m glad that I’ll get to see what’s likely going to be one of his last few starts in a Cubs uniform. He’ll always be one of my favorites.

BOLO for a bearded fat guy in a 2024 Cubs spring training hat and a Santo jersey on the broadcast. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

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  2. Author
    berselius

    Just saw someone in a Bote jersey. Still a ways to go to top the Bonifacio cubs Shirsey I saw in AZ on the before times.

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  7. BVS

    Hey Y’all, remember me?

    Nice job making up names for the last few relievers you listed for the Rockies, B. You should be a novelist, not a physicist.

    Pat said just now that KB is done for the year. 🙁 In hindsight, Jed traded the core 3/4 at the right time.

    Every time I see Assad pitch, which is pretty often on TV for some reason, I think he really should be in the mix at closer and not a SP.

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  8. Author
    berselius

    BVS,

    I dunno, it seems like Assad’s strength is that he looks equally average in the first as he does in the fifth (dying laughing)

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  11. BVS

    berselius,

    I just looked up his splits and you’ve described him perfectly. His ERA the first time through the order is better than the second time, but his WHIP is way worse. His K-BB (isn’t that a stat you guys like?) is better 1st time through because his K-rate decreases a ton 2nd time through.

    We should trade him and Alcantara for Brian Woo, because a guy named Woo belongs at Wrigley, and he’d be an upgrade.

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  15. BVS

    Ethan Roberts reminds me a dumb curiosity I had. I’ve seen colored tattoos, but can you get white in a tattoo? And if so, if you got a life-sized tattoo of a baseball on your leading forearm, would you have to cover it when you pitched?

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  47. Author
    berselius

    (dying laughing) at the people behind me who showed up to their seats 90 minutes late, were shocked that it was the sixth inning, then wandered off at the stretch

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  55. andcounting

    I’m gonna miss baseball, especially with key components of this team finally making it look like a complete-ish roster. Too bad it took five months.

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  56. andcounting

    It was actually pretty cool to see the White Sox celebrate like little leaguers after that walkoff. Sure, it helps that they’re actually little leaguers, but still.

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  78. Author
    berselius

    The ushers made a dude wearing a 45 fuck your feelings shirt turn it inside out like a naughty middle schooler (dying laughing). Might be even better than ejecting him

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  109. Rice Cube

    I realized last night that the A’s currently employ at least three nepo babies…

    Phil Nevin’s kid
    Mike Cameron’s kid
    Jack Wilson’s kid

    What are the odds? It’s like a lesser version of what the Blue Jays had not because they might not be as good but because I didn’t know it happened in Oakland (dying laughing)

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  125. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    LF Happ
    SS Swanson
    DH Suzuki
    RF Bellinger
    3B Paredes
    1B Busch
    2B Hoerner
    CF PCA
    C Amaya

    P Steele

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  154. BVS

    BVS,

    Stats since 8.28, not included tonight.

    G GS GF Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO
    8 0 1 3-5 W-L:0-2,Hld:2. 6.0 11 10 8 6 10

    HR HBP. ERA FIP BF BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
    1 0 12.00 5.00 35 .407 .515 .519 1.034 .625

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  158. BVS

    Cubs cut Shawn Armstrong today. Wesneski back. Armstrong is a FA at end of year so little use for him. Sounds like someone else who pitched last night?

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  170. Rice Cube

    There are 8 games remaining, Cubs at 79-75, 6.5 (really 7.5) behind the Mets. 8-0 is probably difficult with the Phillies inbound, and the Mets would have to go 0-8, and then ATL would have to lose a bunch too. But having a possibility in September is nice.

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