Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers (37-32) @ Chicago Cubs (40-27)

In Series Previews by dmick89114 Comments

The best two teams in the National League in 2016 and 2017 were the Cubs and Dodgers. The best two teams this year probably would have been the Cubs and Dodgers if it wasn’t for some injuries to the Dodgers. The Dodgers have rebounded and are one of the hottest teams in the league so it might turn out that they are again the two best teams in the league. They may meet up for a third time in a row in the NLCS.

Team Leaders

Dodgers

Cubs

Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.

The Dodgers have had a ton of injuries. The biggest is the loss of Corey Seager for the entire season. Any time you lose a player of that caliber for the entire year it’s going to hurt, but the Dodgers have so much talent that it was still surprising to see them start the season so slowly. Also out is Pedro Baez, Walker Buehler, Tony Cingrani, Julio Urias and of course, Clayton Kershaw. It sounds like Kershaw may be a couple weeks away from a return and the Dodgers are still in a good position to take the NL West.

Carl Edwards, Jr. is still out for the Cubs. He’s out with a shoulder injury and has been out nearly a month. He’s thrown off flat ground, but not from a mound yet. It will take him some time once he does to get back to full strength. It’s possible he returns before the All Star Break, but probably not much before. The same is true of Yu Darvish who has been out since May 20th with a triceps injury.

Javier Baez was hit by a pitch last night on the elbow and left the game. He’s listed as day to day, but he said he was good to go. I get the feeling Javy would say that even if his elbow had been completely blown off by the pitch.

Pitching Probables

ERA, FIP, Projected K/9, BB/9, FIP listed for each pitcher. I’m nodding off as I write this so no pithy capsules today. No dinner tomorrow.

At least the Cubs aren’t facing Mikolas.

Monday: Kenta Maeda, RHP (3.61, 3.02, 9.42, 2.56, 3.70) vs Tyler Chatwood, RHP (4.12, 4.76, 8.24, 8.24, 4.50) 7:05 PM CT

Maeda has walked a few more batters this season, but compared to the guy who is pitching for the Cubs tonight, he has had pinpoint control. Maeda has compensated for more walks by striking out more and allowing fewer home runs as he puts together his best season in the states.

Chatwood sucks and has only put up a semi-respectable ERA and FIP to this point because he’s kept the ball in the park. It’s something he probably won’t do as well moving forward. I can’t wait for Darvish to get back so Chatwood can finally take his rightful place in the bullpen. He’s a horrible starting pitcher, but might actually be a decent reliever. At least he’s probably better than Anthony Bass.

Tuesday: Rich Hill, LHP (6.20, 6.33, 9.12, 4.74, 3.96) vs Mike Montgomery, LHP (3.31, 3.89, 5.33, 2.39, 4.30), 7:05 PM CT

Rich Hill hasn’t started since the middle of May. He’s only made 6 starts this year and they haven’t been nearly as good as his standout season last year. He’s still striking out a lot of batters, but his walks have increased significantly and he’s allowing a lot of home runs (this is the Rich Hill I remember from his Cubs days). On his best days he’s almost impossible to hit, but he hasn’t had many of those this year.

Montgomery moved into the rotation on May 28th and has made four starts. In those starts he’s thrown a total of 23.2 innings, allowed 13 hits, 3 runs, 2 home runs, walked 3 and struck out 14. On the season he’s striking out quite a few less batters than he did in 2017 and way less than he did in 2016. He’s also walking many fewer batters and still keeping the ball in the ballpark. Monty is a great pitcher, but he’s been fairly reliable for the Cubs and is the team’s fifth best starter and it’s not even close.

Wednesday: Ross Stripling, RHP (1.75, 2.41, 10.58, 1.49, 3.65) vs Jon Lester, LHP (2.28, 4.19, 7.48, 3.04, 3.90), 1:20 PM CT

Stripling is having a ridiculously good season. His K-BB% is 25.6%. He’s striking out more, walking fewer batters and allowing fewer home runs. He’s also been a little lucky having stranded just over 90% of the runners who have reached base.

It would be nice if Lester would start striking out more batters, but the end result has been pretty good even if it’s not likely to keep itself up. He’s stranded over 85% of the runners, allowed only a .233 BABIP and is allowing many more balls in the air this year. Combined with fewer strikeouts, it’s kind of a miracle he’s allowing so few runs to score. He’ll almost certainly make another all-star team even if there are more deserving pitchers.

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  12. andcounting

    They seem to do this any time it rains at a really inconvenient time. Like, well, it would really suck to cancel this game, so we have to make it clear we gave it every possible chance despite none such chances remotely appearing to exist at all ever.

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  15. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    This time it sorta made sense since this is the only time Dodgers are in town, but I hope at least the fans who stuck it out got their bobbleheads.

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  16. JonKneeV

    So I’m looking at the Dodgers stat leaders above… and I’m thinking who the hell are these people? I have so many questions.

    Who the fuck is Max Muncy? Is that a Jake Fox reincarnation?
    Matt Kemp is still employed to play baseball… and he’s gone back in time to 2013?
    Walker Buehler is an asshole of a name. (sorry, not a question)
    When did the Reds trade Tony Cingrani?
    Should I know who Ross Stripling is?

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  18. Perkins

    JonKneeV:
    So I’m looking at the Dodgers stat leaders above… and I’m thinking who the hell are these people? I have so many questions.

    Who the fuck is Max Muncy? Is that a Jake Fox reincarnation?
    Matt Kemp is still employed to play baseball… and he’s gone back in time to 2013?
    Walker Buehler is an asshole of a name. (sorry, not a question)
    When did the Reds trade Tony Cingrani?
    Should I know who Ross Stripling is?

    Stripling is the guy Dave Roberts pulled during a no-hit bid last season because he was coming back from injury (I think TJS). Apparently he’s really good this year. Cingrani got traded at the deadline last year.

    Also if that’s the real Dodgers_in_5, he really should change his name to Cubs_in_6.

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  19. Author
    dmick89

    I remember looking at KB’s stats about a month ago and he was having a great season. It was his best offensive season so far despite fewer home runs. I figured those would come. He had been worth 2.7 fWAR at that point and looked like he might put together his best season yet. He’s been below replacement level for a long time now and the power is nowhere to be found. He can’t hit the ball to right field anymore, which was never a big part of his game, but he could still hit it out to RF.

    I have no doubt he’ll turn things around. He’s too good not to, but the Cubs would probably have at least a game or two lead if he was performing up to his expectations. It would also be nice if KB figured out how to hit in clutch situations.

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  20. Author
    dmick89

    Perkins,

    Stripling is a really good pitcher. He doesn’t walk anybody and strikes out a lot of batters. Imagine someone with better control than Kyle Hendricks who strikes out a lot of batters. That’s Stripling.

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  24. EnricoPallazzo

    dodgers_in_5 you guys!!!!! i’m guessing that it’s not the real dodgers_in_5 but still the thought that he/she has been lurking silently for the past 2.5 years, just waiting for an opportunity to talk shit, really warms my heart.

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  25. Ryno

    Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 3m
    Because Chatwood pushed to today’s DH opener, Cubs will need a starter for Saturday in Cincinnati. Maddon said it’s been discussed but they’re still working on possible candidates.

    I just submitted my resume via their listing on Indeed.com.

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  28. Myles

    JonKneeV:
    So I’m looking at the Dodgers stat leaders above… and I’m thinking who the hell are these people? I have so many questions.

    Who the fuck is Max Muncy? Is that a Jake Fox reincarnation?
    Matt Kemp is still employed to play baseball… and he’s gone back in time to 2013?
    Walker Buehler is an asshole of a name. (sorry, not a question)
    When did the Reds trade Tony Cingrani?
    Should I know who Ross Stripling is?

    Hey, at least the Cubs are avoiding Miles Mikolas.

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  34. berselius

    Cubs are….winning? Not what I expected after I listened to the first inning before heading off to meetings (dying laughing).

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  37. andcounting

    Almora should try to hit a grand slam 4-rbi homer in this spot since the bases are loaded and runs are good.

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  38. andcounting

    Although letting himself get hit by that pitch instead of popping it up would’ve been an ok plan B.

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  68. Rizzo the Rat

    I know hitting is hard, but I can’t stand watching a batter take strike three with a runner on third base.

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  91. Ryno

    Kris Bryant @KrisBryant_23
    Some of my favorite memories growing up were at home in the cage with my Dad. Check out the video at http://www.redbull.com/KBhouse and happy Fathers Day coming up to all the dads!

    Is he trying to make light of what’s going on at our borders?

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  111. Author
    dmick89

    andcounting:
    dmick89,

    Yeah, they’re basically a missed strike call away from sweeping a series in which both teams played really well.

    I forgot about that missed strike three call by the umpire. All it takes for the Cubs to sweep this series is the umpire doing a halfway decent job.

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