Baseball! It’s back! At 4am (my time)!
It’s been a pretty cool vicarious experience to see the Cubs in Japan, maybe I should try to spend less than a decade before I return next time*. Everyone seems to be enjoying themselves, including Shota and Seiya in their unofficial roles as hosts.
Both teams were shut out by the Hanshin Tigers in exhibition games, but they both beat the Yomiuri Giants. You could really feel the relatively dead NPB ball in these games, especially in the Tigers game; hopefully the Cubs offense will pick up with the official ball in these games.
Team Leaders
Based on projected numbers
Dodgers
- OBP: Freddie Freeman (.384)
- ISO: Shohei Ohtani (.302!!)
- HR: Ohtani (45)
- R+RBI: Ohtani (266)
- wRC+: Ohtani (165)
- BSR: Ohtani (5.1)
- Defense: Will Smith (11.7)
- SP K/9: Blake Snell (11.91)
- SP BB/9: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1.91)
- SP FIP: Yamamoto (3.24)
- RP K/9: Alex Vesia (11.70)
- RP BB/9: Blake Treinen (2.74)
- RP FIP: Tanner Scott (2.94)
- WAR: Ohtani (6.5)
Cubs
- OBP: Tucker (.355)
- ISO: Tucker (.210)
- HR: Tucker (23)
- R+RBI: Happ (163)
- wRC+: Tucker (131)
- BSR: PCA (2.9)
- Defense: Swanson (17.5)
- SP K/9: Ben Brown (9.58)
- SP BB/9: Shota (2.07)
- SP FIP: Steele (3.46)
- RP K/9: Merryweather (10.18)
- RP BB/9: Brasier (2.48)
- RP FIP: Pressly (3.34)
- WAR: Hoerner?! (4.2)
That Shohei Ohtani guy must be pretty good I guess. Also, I had seen commentary from Dan Szymborski about how the Cubs ZiPS projections were weird, but it’s still a little wild to both see Nico at the top of this list and to figure that he’d likely be traded if the Cubs had landed Bregman. ZiPS really likes the Cubs defense, with Dansby, Nico, and PCA all rating as double-digit runs above average and solid numbers from part timers Workman, Kelly, and Berti. I’ve got no idea why Tucker rates so poorly (-4.1 runs), IIRC he won a gold glove in 2022. The fangraphs defensive numbers don’t really like him but he’s generally average to above average on b-ref.
Who isn’t available?
The only two Cubs injuries of note are Nico, who is still recovering from offseason surgery and should/could be back for the stateside opener, and Javier Assad, who suffered an oblique injury early in ST and probably won’t be ready for the start of the season. Assad has been the Cubs Shawn Camp memorial pitching staff MVP for the past few years, but having him out simplifies the fifth starter calculus a bit to make things more likely for Ben Brown to slide in. Though given the off-days in the Cubs April schedule he may not be needed for that many starts.
The most notable missing player is Mookie Betts, who lost 15 pounds to (likely) the flu last week and isn’t back to playing energy levels, so the Cubs get to dodge at least one superstar. As usual the Dodgers have a zillion pitchers on the shelf, but at least at this point they won’t need two strong innings from Joe Kelly to get through each of these games. Guys of note include Brusdar Graterol, Gavin Stone, and Michael Grove (shoulder surgeries), Clayton Kershaw (toe/knee surgery / age), and Michael Kopech (forearm inflammation). Aside from helicoptering in cash on guys, the Dodgers strategy seems to be rolling the dice on pitching injuries for better or worse.
Pitching Matchups
ZiPS Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each
Tuesday: Yoshinobo Yamamoto, RHP (9.27, 1.91, 3.24) vs Shota Imanaga, LHP (9.06, 2.07, 3.65), 5:00 AM CT (FOX/Marquee)
Yoshi missed about three months last season due to a strained rotator cuff suffered in early June, but was effective in relatively limited innings after coming back in September. His first start back was against the Cubs, where he struck out eight batters in four innings. He faced off against Shota in that game, who went seven innings and gave up three solo shots.
Saturday: Roki Sasaki, RHP (10.99, 2.48, 3.56) vs Justin Steele, LHP (8.42, 2.42, 3.46), 5:00 AM CT
I can only scout the spreadsheet with Sasaki, but he’s probably gonna be pretty good. Given how the Cubs looked against other Japanese pitchers that they don’t have much tape on in the Tokyo Dome exhibition games this could be a rough one. But you never know how a young guy is going to react to what is probably the biggest start of his career.
Steele had a fantastic 2024, I just hope he manages to not repeat last year’s first-game-of-the-season injury.
Go Cubs Go. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.
*two out of the three times I was planning to visit Japan were wiped away by a tsunami/nuclear meltdown and a global pandemic, so maybe Japan doesn’t want me to visit (dying laughing)
Comments
I am leaning toward waking up early, just need a cold shower afterwards to prep for interview (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I took the day off tomorrow (though I’ll probably do some work after I wake up from a nap), but it’s probably going to be coffee IV day on Wednesday (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Realizing we won’t even get a lineup until the middle of the night unless they take pity upon us American pigs and do it before bedtime
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It’ll be pretty surprising if the lineup is not
LF Happ
RF Tucker
DH Suzuki
1B Busch
SS Swandong
CF PCA
3B Shaw
C Amaya
2B Berti
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
That seems right though they might let Seiya play the field in front of his home crowd
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Palencia was optioned, no word on other moves yet
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/roster/transactions
Dodgers blogger suggests they’re using 12 pitchers (including Roki now) and 14 position players (including Mookie who’s sick) so that’s interesting. Used the 60 day IL to make room
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Cubs did announce their moves, Keegan DFA as expected
https://bsky.app/profile/bastianmlb.bsky.social/post/3lkmpsuppwk2c
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Updated now, there’s Shaw on the roster
Rice CubeQuote Reply
A dead horse I didn’t have time to beat in the podcast: I bet Turnbull will be a more valuable pitcher than Lance Lynn.
BVSQuote Reply
berselius,
It me the surprised
LF Happ
DH Suzuki
RF Tucker
1B Busch
3B Shaw
SS Swandong
CF PCA
C Amaya
2B Berti
SP Shota
berseliusQuote Reply
Chicago Cubs baseball is ON the air!
berseliusQuote Reply
Pat Hughes and Ron Coomer are on the air!
andcountingQuote Reply
Oh wow, Freeman is also out. Rib discomfort.
berseliusQuote Reply
Rare beginning of the season W to mlb.tv for not cutting out the radio feed during a tv commercial break
berseliusQuote Reply
I get FOX whee
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hell yeah cubs radio now doing yuengling ad reads
berseliusQuote Reply
That was an acceptable first inning
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Fuck yeah, Shota.
andcountingQuote Reply
Shota CYA inc
berseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at the season starting on an automatic ball.
andcountingQuote Reply
Average exit velo of 58 not doing it for me.
andcountingQuote Reply
Was about to make some coffee but:
berseliusQuote Reply
Crappy command and some calls not going Shota’s way
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Complaining about strike zones, baseball is so back (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
I don’t think they’re overlaying that annoying K zone box and that’s nice, or maybe I’m just too sleepy to notice
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing), just saw someone point out that pikachu is wearing a #025 jersey since he is Pokémon number 25
berseliusQuote Reply
Just realized that they didn’t do the adult diapers ad read after Happ walked in the first. End of an era.
berseliusQuote Reply
PCA chants
berseliusQuote Reply
Cubs shall neither be no-hit nor shut out
Rice CubeQuote Reply
LFG!
berseliusQuote Reply
Nice shot, Amaya.
andcountingQuote Reply
No dirt between bases is trippy
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
Can’t remember which of the astroturf stadiums used to do this, I think the Expos park?
berseliusQuote Reply
andcounting,
If Amaya is even somewhat cromulent at the plate this year it’s a huge upgrade
berseliusQuote Reply
Chose the wrong Pirate
Rarity: 12
IMMACULATE!
Play at:
https://immaculategrid.com
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Easy
Daily Walkoff
Cubs #200
“Dawn Of The Decades”
dailywalkoff.com
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Daily Walkoff
Cubs #200
“Dawn Of The Decades”
dailywalkoff.com
berseliusQuote Reply
Expecting radio/tv ad desync fuckery once the season proper starts but glad to get the ads on the score today
berseliusQuote Reply
Shota the pop up king
berseliusQuote Reply
No Dodger hits is cool.
andcountingQuote Reply
Shota damage control
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t think Shaw gets to see Yamamoto a third time due to pitch count but if he did he probably rethinks those swings on those nasty sliders
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess they were splitters
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oh there’s the stupid K zone
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Brown looks like he aged like 15 years in the offseason
berseliusQuote Reply
Damn, rough to see Ohtani get the hit after brown hung clown shoes on him with that breaking ball
berseliusQuote Reply
Cubed
Rice CubeQuote Reply
DFA Berti smh
berseliusQuote Reply
Lousy talented Dodgers
PerkinsQuote Reply
Blergh.
andcountingQuote Reply
I guess it’s the babip godzilla in Japan
berseliusQuote Reply
Not an inspiring inning but I think Yamamoto is done…now just have to face their 15 elite closers
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pitching around Pages to get to Ohtani is a choice.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
A good one, I guess (dying laughing)
andcountingQuote Reply
berselius,
He did the same thing in Game 1 of Spring Training
BVSQuote Reply
Apparently a lot of the old turf cookie cutters had no dirt between bases. Image search says Olympic in Montreal, Riverside in Cinci (which I went to a few times as a kid, Yay memory), 3 Rivers, Twinkiedome.
BVSQuote Reply
Welp
Make up those 2 runs with 9 outs
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
6 outs
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Baseball is back, Coom is making passive aggressive complaints about the pitch clock (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Time for Seiya to say Seeya
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
You have been banned from Obstructed View. You can browse but not participate. Please fax your acknowledgement
berseliusQuote Reply
BVS,
Dammit
BVSQuote Reply
berselius,
I have to copy it first, but the mimeograph is out of ink.
Smells good though
BVSQuote Reply
May have to make up 3+ soon
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Counsell kindly introducing us to the new bullpen guys that we’ll get mad at
berseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Sigh
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dodgers pitchers 111 pitches. 8ip
Cubs 183 pitches 9.1+ ip.
BVSQuote Reply
It’s been a while since I’ve seen a major leaguer with as closed of a batting stance as Matt Shaw
BVSQuote Reply
Oof too early in the morning for Marquee to do a shot of the Hachiko statue
berseliusQuote Reply
Baseball is back and the Cubs have a chance to win tomorrow
Rice CubeQuote Reply
121 vs 185
Poor execution on both sides of the ball today by the Cubs.
Remember when the Cubs signed Fukudone and he taught them how to work a count?
BVSQuote Reply
Good luck today RC, you’ll crush it
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, that’ll be a more important win. Do a palm tree dance after.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
Hard to work a count when they either throw strikes or Frisbees
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New-ish stuff for tomorrow’s game that the Cubs will hopefully win –> https://www.obstructedview.net/a-post-loss-haiku/
Rice CubeQuote Reply