Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (10-10) at Chicago Cubs of Chicago (9-9)

In Series Previews by berselius63 Comments

Team Overview

This is where I would normally talk about what the team’s done, but anything that the Dodgers have acoomplished this year is overshadowed by the legal battle that is shaking up between the McCourts and MLB. It’s going to be a big mess. If MLB does take over, I hope that they appoint current MLB VP of operations Kim Ng to run the team. Not only would it be a slam dunk PR move for MLB, but Ng is intimitely familiar with the Dodgers organization having worked there as an assistant GM from 2001 until earlier this year.

Dodgers NL Ranks:

wOBA: .292 (15th)
UZR: 1.3 (7th)
DRS: -3 (7th)
SP FIP: 4.17 (10th)
SP xFIP: 3.74 (8th)
RP FIP: 5.57 (16th)
RP xFIP: 4.56 (16th)

Batters

Player wOBA ZiPS wOBA
SS Jamey Carroll .315 .304
3B Casey Blake .348 .317
RF Andre Ethier .426 .370
CF Matt Kemp .494 .355
2B Juan Uribe .250 .317
1B James Loney .181 .318
LF Gerald Sands .213 .330
C Rod Barajas .273 .311

The Dodgers offense is pretty much the poor man’s Brewers offense. There are two guys you have to worry about, then a whole lot of nothing. And for what it’s worth Ethier is a player I habitually undervalue. He’s a butcher on defense and I always think he’s a much lousier hitter than he actually is (in my head he’s similar to Jacque Jones). Kemp has obviously been hitting out of his mind. Their starting SS, Rafael Furcal, had a career year last year after it looked like his career was on the rocks. He got off to a poor start this year and is on the DL with a broken thumb.

Pitchers

ERA FIP ZiPS FIP
LHP Clayton Kershaw 2.96 3.38 3.15
RHP Chad Billingsley 4.91 3.27 3.12
LHP Ted Lilly 4.09 3.91 3.62
RHP Hiroki Kuroda 3.33 4.94 3.53
RHP Jon Garland 4.15 4.59 4.33
RHP Jonathon Broxton 6.14 6.46 2.76
RHP Matt Guerrier 0.00 2.59 4.06

The Dodgers have assembled a great pitching staff. If Colletti can find some hitting to go with it they’ll keep up their string of NL West titles, but it looks like it’s not going to happen this year.

Pitching Probables

(ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP in parens)

Friday: Chad Billingsley, RHP (4.91, 3.24, 3.12, 3.10) vs Casey Coleman, RHP (4.22, 6.20, 5.84, 4.86), 1:20 PM CT

The Cubs might as well start Koyie in this game, given the size of the mismatch. We had a long argument in the comments whether or not Coleman is worth a damn or not. At the time I didn’t care if he ended up with the 5th starter role, as it was what I was pushing for at the start of the season. Coleman was decent after being called up last season, but as Doogolas pointed out he was lucky with his HR rate. This year he’s been more unlucky (and only pitched 10 innings), but I don’t really care about those numbers. What’s more important to me is his pathetic strikeout rate in AAA and his brief time in the majors. If you’re going to strike out less than 5 per 9 you need to either get a ton of ground balls or walk less batters. Or prevent home runs. Maybe Coleman has that skill, I don’t know – most of the decent FIPs he posted in the minors were more a factor of his lower than usual HR/9.

Not a lot to say about Billingsley exceptt that he should crush the Cubs today. He had a bizarre/injured start to the season two years ago that he bounced back so well from it’s hard to even tell from his numbers. He signed a 3/35 extension through the 2014 season in spring training that should be a fantastic deal for LA.

Saturday: Ted Lilly, LHP (4.09, 3.88, 4.50, 3.62) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (6.84, 4.61, 3.32, 3.78), 12:05 PM CT

I love this matchup. Along with Mark DeRosa these two pitchers were more or less the popular faces of the late 00s playoff teams. The only question is how many standing ovations Lilly will get (laughing). Lilly succeeded in his move to Wrigley against expectations, and unless the wind is blowing out he should do well again in this start. One of the nice things about Lilly was that it seemed to me that he was the kind of high-variance pitcher who a team would rather have than a consistent one. Lilly would seemingly rattle off two or three great starts in a row, then get absolutely shelled in a single start to make his stat line look average-ish over the span. Hopefully the Cubs catch him on a bad day, and Dempster’s HR luck evens out at the same time.

Sunday: Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (3.33, 4.90, 3.79, 3.49) vs Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.21, 3.91, 3.80, 3.74), 1:20 PM CT 

It feels like Kuroda has always had the Cubs number, though a lot of that is just me remembering how he shut down the Cubs in the 2008 NLDS. He’s been quite unlucky with HRs this year but it hasn’t burned him very much. He gets a ton of ground balls but surprisingly has always had a good BABIP throughout his career.

Z had his best game of the season last time out and Z with his good stuff is always fun to watch. It’s too bad the rest of the game was such a snoozer. Batters slugged only .181 against him that night. More importantly, he got the ground balls that had been missing from his previous starts.

Prediction

I think the Dodgers are probably the slightly better team, but I’ll take the Cubs to win both of the weekend games anyway.

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Comments

  1. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Yeah, but every year there seems to be a reach pick that makes you scratch your head like Whitner, Heyward-Bey, Tyson Alualu, etc. Maybe that’s his reach prediction.[/quote]
    That’s true, but those guys were late first rounders that went in the early- to mid-first. This guy is a damn near carbon copy of a guy who went in the mid-third round LAST YEAR.

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  2. Berselius

    Damn, I forgot to make a prediction that the Cubs would lose a game on 5,000 singles. Good thing Garza isn’t starting this series (dying laughing)

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  3. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Berselius]Good thin Garza isn’t starting this series (dying laughing)[/quote]
    What an odd nickname.

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  4. Mucker

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]That’s true, but those guys were late first rounders that went in the early- to mid-first. This guy is a damn near carbon copy of a guy who went in the mid-third round LAST YEAR.[/quote]Yeah that’s a good point.

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  7. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Damn, I forgot to make a prediction that the Cubs would lose a game on 5,000 singles. Good thing Garza isn’t starting this series (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing) that game still cracks me up. Didn’t they have 8 of them in a row? About an hour after I said they couldn’t keep doing it. (dying laughing)

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  8. Berselius

    berselius ——–> finally got around to finishing The Wire last night. I loved season 5. It might be my favorite, though that could just be because I watched it most recently (dying laughing)

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  9. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Yeah that’s a good point.[/quote]
    I do think senior QBs who are the most ready to play in the NFL will have added value because of the lack of a CBA right now. Dalton, Ponder, Locker and Stanzi have made themselves a bit of money thanks to the lockout…though Locker probably lost 8 figures by staying in school.

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  10. Mucker

    [quote name=Berselius]berselius ——–> finally got around to finishing The Wire last night. I loved season 5. It might be my favorite, though that could just be because I watched it most recently (dying laughing)[/quote]Top 5 tv shows of all time. *Spoiler Alert* The only thing I hated was how Omar got it. But it just goes to show you that’s how badass he was that the only one who could have got to him was a little churn.

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  11. Berselius

    [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Top 5 tv shows of all time. *Spoiler Alert* The only thing I hated was how Omar got it. But it just goes to show you that’s how badass he was that the only one who could have got to him was a little churn.[/quote]
    At least we have a new Omar now.

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  12. Berselius

    FWIW I liked Omar but never got into the whole Legend of Omar Little thing that seems pervasive among fans of the show.

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  13. Mucker

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]I do think senior QBs who are the most ready to play in the NFL will have added value because of the lack of a CBA right now. Dalton, Ponder, Locker and Stanzi have made themselves a bit of money thanks to the lockout…though Locker probably lost 8 figures by staying in school.[/quote]Locker definitely lost a shit ton of money by staying. Aren’t they working on the rookie salaries and capping those?

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  14. Berselius

    If the game is played, today’s lineup:

    Fukudome
    Barney
    Not Marlon Byrd (i.e. Castro)
    Ramirez
    Pena
    Byrd
    Soriano
    Soto
    Coleman

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  16. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]If the game is played, today’s lineup:

    Fukudome
    Barney
    Not Marlon Byrd (i.e. Castro)
    Ramirez
    Pena
    Byrd
    Soriano
    Soto
    Coleman[/quote]
    This displeases me.

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  17. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Locker definitely lost a shit ton of money by staying. Aren’t they working on the rookie salaries and capping those?[/quote]
    That’s the rumor. Given that it was also the rumor last year, I was surprised more juniors and red-shirt sophomores didn’t declare for the 2010 draft.

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  20. GBTS

    [quote name=Berselius]FWIW I liked Omar but never got into the whole Legend of Omar Little thing that seems pervasive among fans of the show.[/quote]If you Google “Omar”, Omar Little is the first result.

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  21. Mucker

    [quote name=Berselius]At least we have a new Omar now.[/quote]
    Absolutely!! I thought that was awesome.

    [quote name=Berselius]FWIW I liked Omar but never got into the whole Legend of Omar Little thing that seems pervasive among fans of the show.[/quote]Omar definitely had his moments but yeah I hear what you are saying. Everybody loved the scene where he jumped out the window.

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  22. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Locker definitely lost a shit ton of money by staying. Aren’t they working on the rookie salaries and capping those?[/quote]The definitely want to get rid of the slotting system for guaranteed money in the draft, a move which the players are resisting because for all but the very best players, that’s the only guaranteed money they will ever get from the skinflint owners.

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  23. Berselius

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/history.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB602

    Heads up, GW and b.[/quote]
    Sweet deal. I’ll have to do it once these legislature mandated days of prayer for rain are over (dying laughing).

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  25. Berselius

    [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Omar definitely had his moments but yeah I hear what you are saying. Everybody loved the scene where he jumped out the window.[/quote]
    Yeah, that was nuts. When he was going around trying to call Marlo out after that I half-expected him to be gaming everyone with how seriously injured his leg was.

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  26. Suburban kid

    [quote name=Berselius]If the game is played, today’s lineup:

    Fukudome
    Barney
    Not Marlon Byrd (i.e. Castro)
    Ramirez
    Pena
    Byrd
    Soriano
    Soto
    Coleman[/quote]
    Interesting how Byrd got demoted but Soriano and Soto still anchor the bottom of the order.

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  27. Mucker

    [quote name=Berselius]Yeah, that was nuts. When he was going around trying to call Marlo out after that I half-expected him to be gaming everyone with how seriously injured his leg was.[/quote]Yeah, that whole battle between him and Marlo was nuts. I love how he would whistle “The Farmer and the Dell” walking down the street with a sawed off.

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  28. Berselius

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]Interesting unsurprising how Byrd got demoted but Soriano and Soto still anchor the bottom of the order.[/quote].

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  29. Berselius

    Was that Omar’s shotgun that Michael was using in his last scene? I didn’t get a good luck. I know a bunch of the hoppers took souveniers.

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  30. Suburban kid

    [quote name=Berselius] Interesting unsurprising how The Byrdman! got demoted but Soriano and Soto still anchor the bottom of the order.[/quote].

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  31. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Berselius]Sweet deal. I’ll have to do it once these legislature mandated days of prayer for rain are over (dying laughing).[/quote]
    Can’t you do both?

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  32. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Suburban Kid]Interesting how Byrd got demoted but Soriano and Soto still anchor the bottom of the order.[/quote]
    It’s because they’re lazy Latins who will only single when they should’ve had a double anyway.

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  33. Berselius

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]Can’t you do both?[/quote]
    Heh, I also don’t have a working motor vehicle right now.

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  35. Mucker

    [quote name=Berselius]Was that Omar’s shotgun that Michael was using in his last scene? I didn’t get a good luck. I know a bunch of the hoppers took souveniers.[/quote]I asked that same question and nobody ever really knew. I always thought it was. Makes it that much better. Like a passing of the torch.

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  38. Mucker

    [quote name=Jame Gumb]That’s the rumor. Given that it was also the rumor last year, I was surprised more juniors and red-shirt sophomores didn’t declare for the 2010 draft.[/quote]I was too. I thought most underclassmen that were generating draft buzz would declare.

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  41. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I think Omar is the best tv character ever. Agent Dale Cooper is a close second.[/quote]
    I can think of three characters on that show alone that I would put over Omar – McNulty, Stringer Bell, and Bubbles.

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  44. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]He’s not being paid all that money to hang around on balconies, MB.[/quote]
    (dying laughing)

    I see what you did there…

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  45. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]I can think of three characters on that show alone that I would put over Omar – McNulty, Stringer Bell, and Bubbles.[/quote]I didn’t care much for Bubbles. Pretty much everyone knows he’s a CI and he’s still alive? McNulty was awesome in the first season, but by the end of the show I couldn’t even stand him. He started to get on my nerves like Lila did in season 2 of Dexter. Idris Elba was the perfect actor for Stringer.

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  46. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I didn’t care much for Bubbles. Pretty much everyone knows he’s a CI and he’s still alive? McNulty was awesome in the first season, but by the end of the show I couldn’t even stand him. He started to get on my nerves like Lila did in season 2 of Dexter. Idris Elba was the perfect actor for Stringer.[/quote]
    I left Bunk off my list too. His reaction shots alone in season 5 are incredible (dying laughing).

    McNulty is an asshole but I liked where the show went with him over its run.

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  47. mb21

    I liked McNulty in season 2 also. I guess it was sometime in season 3 when I started to get annoyed with him. Overall a solid character that i thought should have left the show after season 3.

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  48. Berselius

    The biggest laugh of the entire series was when they brought in the FBI guy to profile McNulty’s phony serial killer (dying laughing).

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  49. mb21

    One of my favorite scenes in the show is with McNulty and Bunk in season 1. An entire season where both of them just say Fuck and it ends with Bunk’s “fuckity fuckity fuck fuck fuck.”

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  50. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]The biggest laugh of the entire series was when they brought in the FBI guy to profile McNulty’s phony serial killer (dying laughing).[/quote]I vaguely remember it, but the show was so unbelievable at that point. Paul Sullivan wouldn’t have been fooled and he’s retarded.

    Simon said that he was upset they didn’t get a full run in season 5 and they had to shorten things up. I’d like to have seen how season 5 went if they had 12 episodes.

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  51. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I vaguely remember it, but the show was so unbelievable at that point. Paul Sullivan wouldn’t have been fooled and he’s retarded.

    Simon said that he was upset they didn’t get a full run in season 5 and they had to shorten things up. I’d like to have seen how season 5 went if they had 12 episodes.[/quote]
    The guy pretty much pegged McNulty. High functioning alcoholic, pissed off about his job, probably in law enforcement, white male in 30s-40s, etc. etc.

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  52. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]I think JR Ewing is the best recent tv character ever. Agent Ed Norton is a close second.[/quote].

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  57. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]The guy pretty much pegged McNulty. High functioning alcoholic, pissed off about his job, probably in law enforcement, white male in 30s-40s, etc. etc.[/quote]I was talking more about the general cluelessness of the media and the police. It was even more unbelievable than Hamsterdam. Paul Sullivan breaks both those stories wide open in the middle of a Cubs game while blogging about Soriano’s laziness.

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