There's a little less smoke and mirrors going on with the Brewers record compared to the team the Cubs just swept. The Brewers are simply scoring a crapload of runs, in large part thanks to Eric Thames's scorching hot April. He has slowed down a bit in May, but he's anchored what has been a pretty good offense, middle infield aside. The biggest disappointment has been Jonathan Villar, who has followed up last year's breakout 3 WAR season with a .215/.281/.344 line and sub-replacement level play. So odds are he will hit four homers in this series (dying laughing)
Team Leaders
Crew
- OBP: Thames (.435)
- ISO: Thames (.378)
- HR: Thames (13)
- R+RBI: Thames (62)
- wRC+: Thames (184)
- BSR: Keon Broxton (1.4)
- SP K/9: Jimmy Nelson (8.32)
- SP BB/9: Matt Garza (1.82)
- SP FIP: Chase Anderson (3.02)
- RP K/9: Corey Knebel (15.00)
- RP BB/9: Knebel (4.29)
- RP FIP: Knebel (1.28)
- WAR: Thames (1.8)
Cubs
- OBP: Kris Bryant (.404)
- ISO: Bryant (.243)
- HR: Bryant/Anthony Rizzo (7)
- R+RBI: Bryant (43)
- wRC+: Bryant (148)
- BSR: Jon Jay (2.4)
- SP K/9: Jake Arrieta (9.87)
- SP BB/9: John Lackey (2.47)
- SP FIP: Jon Lester (3.68)
- RP K/9: Carl Edwards Jr (12.46)
- RP BB/9: Brian Duensing (1.13)
- RP FIP: Wade Davis (1.37)
- WAR: Bryant (1.4)
Bizarre fun fact – Every single Brewers starter has a lower walk rate than any of their relievers.
Injuries, transactions, vengeance pacts, etc.
Ryan Braun is out until the end of the month with a calf strain, which should help keep the lid on this offense. Opening day starter Junior Guerra is starting a rehab assignment soon, and Eric Thames missed most of the last series with strep throat.
Jason Heyward is starting a rehab stint down at South Bend and could be back soon. Zobrist and Jay are dealing with nagging back injuries, and Russell missed time with a sore shoulder in the last week. Brett Anderson is on the DL but has probably thrown his last pitch as a Cub.
Pitching Matchups
K%, BB%, ERA, projected ERA listed for each starter.
Friday: Paolo Espino, RHP (-,-,-,4.37) vs Eddie Butler, RHP (21.7%, 13.0%, 0,00, 5.01), 1:20 PM CT
This is Espino's MLB debut. I don't know much about him, but you don't need to see his stat line to get an idea of what kind of pitcher he is. He made it to AAA in 2010, but this is his MLB debut. He throws a lot of strikes.
Despite the low strikeout rate and weird peripherals in the minors, I kind of…liked…(?) Butler's debut with the Cubs and want to see more. His stuff looked pretty great, it's baffling that his K rate is so low.
Saturday: Chase Anderson, RHP (20.4%, 8.4%, 3.43, 4.43) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (25.0%, 6.6%, 5.44, 3.22), 1:20 PM CT
Speaking of weird peripherals, Arrieta's strikeout and walk rates look pretty good, but he's getting far fewer gound balls this year. When batters hit the ball they're hitting it a lot harder, and a lot of balls have left the yard. The movement seems fine, but I guess this is the consequence of the velocity loss?
Anderson was worse than I remembered last year – posting a 5+ FIP and only throwing 150 innings in 30 starts. Not much has changed this year except that he's given up much fewer home runs. He's averaging slightly more innings per start, but hasn't made it through the sixth in his last three outings.
Sunday: Jimmy Nelson, RHP (21.7%, 7.9%, 3.86, 4.36) vs John Lackey, RHP (23.7%, 6.3%, 4.37, 3.74), 1:20 PM CT
I caught most of Nelson's second start on the radio back in April and to hear the Brewers broadcasters you'd think Nelson was going to win the CYA this year. He went on to give up 15 runs in his next three starts.
I was surprised to find that Lackey has actually thrown the most innings of all of the Cubs starters. He's neck and neck with Lester for the best xFIP among the Cubs starters, he's just given up some extra homers.
Comments
Looks like an ankle injury for Cease.
berseliusQuote Reply
I think he’s thrown a lot of bad pitches. He hasn’t walked as many guys, but he’s left a lot of pitches in the middle of the plate to be crushed. He was probably able to get away with some of that before, but I don’t remember him missing his spots in the zone as often as he has this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
So, another sweep for the Cubs?
EdwinQuote Reply
First sweep in over half a year. It’s about damn time.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Edwin,
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Good gif
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Rice in limbo,
Wonder if it’s possible to merge that with the Cookie Monster gif
Rice in limboQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Sure, they could get swept in this series.
berseliusQuote Reply
Complete outside speculation on trade candidates:
Not going to be traded:
Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Contreras, Heyward, everybody of consequence in the rotation/bullpen.
Very unlikely to be traded:
Schwarber, Zobrist, Baez.
Unlikely to be traded:
Happ, Montero, Jay.
Likely to be offered:
Candelario, La Stella, Almora.
If the FO is going to make a big splash for a good, cost-controlled pitcher, I think Jimenez is their best tradeable asset, but Happ is giving him a run for his money because of his versatility and readiness for teams on the cusp like the 2014 Cubs were or even teams in the running who have more pitching depth than position depth. Candelario has thus far diminished his stock with his top-line stats, but he has seemed unlucky based on his batted ball profile. His defense, however, has been quite competent. I hope to see him destroy AAA and get another good look in the Bigs before the deadline.
Of pitching prospects, Cease is probably the least likely prospect to be traded now that he has that ankle injury (in addition to the team’s long term pitching needs, particularly for a TOR starter). Trevor Clifton and Oscar de la Cruz are right behind him because of their proximity and lack of “prospectiness”. Jose Albertos, however, may not be long for this team.
It’s shaping up to be an interesting deadline. Let’s hope Eddie Butler and Jake Arrieta make a trade less imperative. Leverage is good for negotiation.
ceruleanQuote Reply
*Optionality is leverage. Leverage is good for negotiation.
ceruleanQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Really wish we could like posts
MylesQuote Reply
What’s not to like?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Yeah. I say if you want to like a post, you go right ahead and like it. If you’re worried about potential backlash, just don’t tell anyone you like it.
RynoQuote Reply
God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Posts.
EdwinQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
LF Schwarber
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
CF Happ
2B Zobrist
C Contreras
SS Baez
P Butler
RF Jay
berseliusQuote Reply
Sounds like Heyward will be back on the morrow
berseliusQuote Reply
This rain needs to GTFO
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Kerry Wood is in the booth with Len today.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Butler looks pretty wild so far. 3BB and 2K in the inning.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Meet the real Eddie Butler.
dmick89Quote Reply
This is a high stress inning I am not enjoying.
EdwinQuote Reply
Uh oh.
EdwinQuote Reply
You just cannot walk the bases loaded and expect it to be okay.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Cubs lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maybe the Cubs starters are giving up runs in the first on purpose, in order to put pressure on their own offense to get things going?
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Makes as much sense as the Cubs starters intentionally taking 2-3 mph off their pitches.
dmick89Quote Reply
Dang, Rizzo almost got one.
EdwinQuote Reply
So far the Brewers pitcher has pretty much just been laying it in over the plate. I doubt he gets past the 4th.
EdwinQuote Reply
Butler has 5 walks today. Last year, Kershaw had 105 strikeouts and 5 walks through his first 11 games (86.2 innings). Granted, he was a little wild after that. he struckout 67 the rest of the way and walked 6.
dmick89Quote Reply
Edwin,
That’s a good thing, but Butler probably isn’t making it through 3 innings.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
What I’m trying to get at is that Butler’s control isn’t quite as good as Kershaw’s. Close, but just not as good. If I want someone to throw strikes, I’m probably going to lean toward Kershaw. That’s just me though.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs have done well at keeping Espino’s pitch count low. By the 5th, he’ll have thrown as many as Butler threw in the first.
dmick89Quote Reply
There’s an outside shot Butler can reach 90 pitches this inning.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Close enough. I was rooting for him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maybe the Cubs can buy low on him. Happ and Candelario should get it down.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Baez might draw a walk…
EdwinQuote Reply
Cubs have some of that black magic left, I see.
EdwinQuote Reply
This seems like a shitty game to watch so far.
EdwinQuote Reply
It’s getting better though.
EdwinQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Looks like he’s been even wilder this year. I think he’s already walked 8. Kind of a risky move to give up so much to get Kershaw.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Plus I heard he’s not clutch in the playoffs.
EdwinQuote Reply
It’s unfortunate Butler didn’t get a shot to try for the quality start. He was almost halfway there.
dmick89Quote Reply
He was also Livin’ On A Prayer
berseliusQuote Reply
Bases clogged
berseliusQuote Reply
Willson!
PerkinsQuote Reply
When the wind is howling in like this, the only logical thing to do is walk 5 in 3 innings.
MylesQuote Reply
Damn it, Javy.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
He could have gotten the win if Joe just stuck with him a little longer.
dmick89Quote Reply
Why was Baez bunting with a relief pitcher due up next?
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
Flagged.
EdwinQuote Reply
Can Wade Davis come in to finish this one?
dmick89Quote Reply
Schwarber made a catch. An outside chance of a 4-star catch, but probably not. Even so, that was nice to see.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Fuck it all.
ceruleanQuote Reply
He had him struck out.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Struck him out too.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The rain will be done in an hour. Fuck you umps.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Watch them make the Cubs bat and then call it a game.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Maybe Schwarber should stop taking pitches right down the middle. Might help.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m fairly confident the Cubs will score at least one more run, but it’d be nice if we could stop letting them score more runs. #analysis
MylesQuote Reply
Good thing Montgomery got a plate appearance there. I’d hate to think the Cubs could still have had a lead right now.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Are you fucking shitting me?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Why didn’t they just call a rain delay back in the fifth?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Bah. Schwarber undoes his defense. Congratulations, umps. Shame nobody got injured.
ceruleanQuote Reply
They don’t deserve to win this one anyway. This game reminded me of some of the worst Cubs teams I’ve seen.
dmick89Quote Reply
If Peralta is pitching, the Cubs should be able to come back.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
False.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I said “should.”
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
So, uh, maybe not a sweep, eh?
ceruleanQuote Reply
At the beginning of the year, I thought Schwarber looked completely locked in. Now he’s taking 4 seamers down the middle. It’s weird. He’s getting fastballs above his belt and can’t do anything with them.
JKVQuote Reply
cerulean,
No, I still think there will be a sweep. It’s just not going to be the kind that pleases us.
dmick89Quote Reply
JKV,
He looks almost useless at the plate. He’s still good for the occasional home run and can take a walk, but it comes at the expense of taking pitches he should be hitting 500 feet. He’s not alone though. Contreras, Russell, Rizzo and Heyward are looking useless too.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
And Zobrist. It’s just a lineup of suck and then there’s Kris Bryant who gets to launch home runs with no one on base.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs don’t lose (today, anyway)!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Silver lining of today’s rainout: Cubs can’t be under .500 by the end of the weekend.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
They also get to stay within 5 games of the Brewers.
dmick89Quote Reply
The people calling the game are a joke. It’s ridiculous that they can’t get a game in. Yesterday, it was ridiculous that they continued the game when a small delay would have made the game better and safer. I have access to radar. It’s not hard to anticipate and plan to take advantage of windows of opportunity. WTF!?
ceruleanQuote Reply
I enjoyed reading about Thames and boredom. It underscores how ridiculous it was that Bosio and Lackey cast unfounded PED aspersions on his performance. I hope Epstein game them an earful about that. The only things Thames seems guilty of are Performance Enhancing Development and Performance Enhancing Discipline.
ceruleanQuote Reply
*gave, not game
ceruleanQuote Reply
Terrible timing by Mother Nature – the Cubs can’t even use this off day as a chance to skip Butler in the rotation.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
2B Zobrist
LF War Bear
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
CF Happ
RF Heyward
C Contreras
SS Russell
P Carrieta
Joe mixing it up a bit, though I don’t think moving Schwarber to the second spot is what anyone else had in mind.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Sounds like he’s trying to alternate handedness but still have 2 lefties starting the game off against the RHP
Rice in limboQuote Reply
I saw 94 on the velocity reading.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
So much for the news I saw about Braun’s calf strain keeping him out until June (dying laughing)
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Jake seems to have forgotten that Cubs starters are contractually obligated to give up first inning runs.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Zobrist!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Zo
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
If nothing else they’re making Anderson work for whatever outs he may eventually record.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Cmon Tony
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Huge zone.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
Happ!!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Happ just missed one
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Happ is unaffected by the Cubs RISP jinx.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nice to see Heyward’s defense back out there.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Bryant!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
KB
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Throw strikes, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I was wondering when Jake would revert to 2017 Jake. Who had the 4th inning?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I had the 6th, though I expected two other long innings before he fell apart so there’s still time for me to be right.
dmick89Quote Reply
They need a couple more runs to Arrieta-proof this lead.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
BRYANT
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
~ Come & See ~
the FABULOUS
> Jake Arrieta <
HIGH WIRE Act
~~~featuring~~~
— Kris Bryant —
BASKET BOMBS
ceruleanQuote Reply
Ninth wild pitch of the year for Jake.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Seems low.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Nice results for Jake, but he was lucky to escape the fifth with only one run given up.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
At least he was able to dial it in against Thames and Braun with the bases clogged.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
This team brings back memories—Rizzo with the rally killer.
…And Happ starts a new one…
ceruleanQuote Reply
Perkins,
He was overdue for some luck.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Addy has actually made some decent contact today.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Outs, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Floro might be a good candidate for the rotation. In Iowa.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Enough already. Floro belongs on the Reds.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I just realized Heyward had his first double of the season today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bet the Brewers wish this had been rained out eh
Also Guardians was fun
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Clayton Richard just pitched a complete game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Another young talent the Cubs let get away.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rice in limbo,
(dying laughing), I skipped out of the last few innings and saw Guardians too.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
It was ultimately a good decision as the game was well in hand and the movie was much more entertaining than the beatdown in progress.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/series-preview-san-francisco-giants-19-26-chicago-cubs-22-20/
berseliusQuote Reply