The Cubs stand ready with their boots on Pittsburgh’s neck. A Cubs sweep and the Pirates’ divisional chances are essentially over. Pittsburgh has played poorly over the past few weeks while the Cubs suddenly look merely very good (as opposed to historically great). The Cubs welcome the Pirates for three games in this one.
Cubs (100 PA)
- OBP: Ben Zobrist (.425)
- ISO: Anthony Rizzo (.269) (nice)
- HR: Rizzo/Kris Bryant (15)
- R+RBI: Bryant (93)
- wRC+: Zobrist (151)
- BSR: Javier Baez (2.5)
- SP K/9: Jake Arrieta/Jon Lackey (9.31)
- SP BB/9: Jon Lester (1.79)
- SP FIP: Arrieta (2.59)
- RP K/9: Pedro Strop (13.50)
- RP BB/9: Hector Rondon (1.17)
- RP FIP: Rondon (1.88)
- WAR: Bryant (3.2)
Pirates (100 PA)
- OBP: Matt Joyce (.423)
- ISO: Jung-Ho Kang (.321)
- HR: (three players) (9)
- R+RBI: Gregory Polanco (83)
- wRC+: Joyce (173)
- BSR: Starling Marte (3.8)
- SP K/9: Juan Nicasio (9.15)
- SP BB/9: Gerrit Cole (2.63)
- SP FIP: Cole (3.06)
- RP K/9: Neftali Feliz (10.65)
- RP BB/9: Feliz (1.90)
- RP FIP: Andrew Schugel (2.86)
- WAR: Polanco (2.5)
Friday’s Probables (1:20 PM) (ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, Fastball velocity)
Francisco Liriano (4.92, 5.52, 4.46, 9.04, 5.45, 92.3) vs. Jake Arrieta (1.89, 2.59, 3.12, 9.31, 2.90, 94.1)
There was a nice little run when Liriano was able to keep his walks in check. When that happens, Liriano is a very good pitcher, maybe even a #1 starter. He certainly hasn’t been this year. The issue with these types of pitchers is that you know they have the stuff to be dominant, so if you get them on the wrong day, you can have a really tough time. All things considered, I’m not especially worried about him. He also is going against Jake from State Farm, who is about as dominant as last year. In my hot take land, I think Arrieta is at the bottom of the “ace” category, but that’s still an ace. Something to watch for: Arrieta usually throws around 28% cutters, but this year it’s down to 20%. I don’t know if that’s a weather-related decision or what, but his pitch mix is as Baltimore-esque as it has been since he arrived.
Saturday’s Probables (7:15 PM)
Jonathon Niese (4.60, 5.21, 4.24, 6.37, 2.95, 89.2) vs. Jon Lester (1.89, 2.85, 3.18, 8.93, 1.79, 92.0)
Jon Niese is what every Cubs pitching prospect would look like in the majors. He doesn’t strike anyone out, can’t overpower anyone, and because of those two things, he walks a good amount of people despite decent control. Niese isn’t throwing his curveball that often this year, instead relying on a 89 mph fastball to put people away. For some reason, no one is running on Lester. Good for him! He’s having the best season of his career right now, though he’s clearly been sequence-lucky. I think he’s had demonstrably better control this year than last, and the familiarity with the National League helps him be the team’s second #1 starter.
Sunday’s Probables (7:08 PM)
Jameson Taillon [2 starts] (1.93, 3.78, 3.67, 5.14, 1.93, 94.9) vs. Kyle Hendricks (3.05, 3.30, 3.64, 7.45, 2.32, 87.3)
I’ve seen Taillon in person (AAA). He looked impossible to hit. I’m really looking forward to this game. He features two main pitches: a huge fastball and a huge curveball. Always love these types of pitchers. Hendricks has been steady as usual. Hope he has his change working in this one; anecdotally, it seems to desert him last start.
Comments
Inigo…I hope we win.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Arrieta at the bottom of the ace category? That must be a tight category.
JasonQuote Reply
Weird for Bryant to be getting a breather against a southpaw (who has a significant platoon split).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
There are, at any point, between 4-8 aces or so. Kershaw, Sale, Arrieta, Scherzer, Hernandez, Greinke right now. Price, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Cueto have arguments.
mylesQuote Reply
And Felix is just about ready to drop out, but for half a decade he was one of the 2 best pitchers in baseball and that’s hard to shake.
mylesQuote Reply
Felix has shown significantly diminished velocity of late, so he may not be an ace anymore.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Kind of like how there’s always 2 Sith lords, a Master and Apprentice.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Has Grienke started to turn things around in Arizona? His season started out trash.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
i would check his bref page and let you know but his picture terrifies me.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I want to empirically define an ace. I feel like I did before but don’t remember.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
Myles Handley,
I geel what you’re saying.
joshQuote Reply
I like to try and use standard deviations for deciding who’s an “Ace”.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
I like to use the onion test. I throw an onion at them and see if they catch it. If they do, ace. If they catch it and cry? Super ace.
joshQuote Reply
josh,
Checks out.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Fixed.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bros with Bryant and schwarber jerseys on the platform. Sorry bros.
SKQuote Reply
Millertime,
I keep getting arrested for whipping onions at people, but I swear that homeless man with the ragged beard looked like Clayton Kershaw.
joshQuote Reply
Millertime,
Yeah, he’s been fine.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
https://mobile.twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/743829247064743936
I thought it might have been something other than a normal off-day for Bryant. Hope he feels better soon.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Minor league K rate is truly the Valjean to OV’s Javert.
uncle daveQuote Reply
My definition I just made up is a bit broader because “ace” should be synonymous with #1:
Has a WHIP near 1.000 than 1.100 with at least six more strikeouts than walks per nine averaging at least 6 innings per start over the last 300 innings.
If we want to get into perennial Cy Young candidate, I think that’s a different metric more in line with the list you gave.
ceruleanQuote Reply
What makes us think pitching talent is normally distributed, even among a population of people who are already long-tail physical freaks?
umbraQuote Reply
A quick, easy one: take the last 4 years and weight them 4-3-2-1, most recent first. They get the points if they fit at least 2 of the 3 criteria (and pitched at least 170 innings in that year):
Finished 3rd or better in Cy Young voting
Were in the top 10 in their respective league in K% without being worse than league average or worse in BB%
Had 5 or games of 70+ in Game Score
And anything 6 or above is an ace.
mylesQuote Reply
Jaso leading off, huh? That’s pretty weird.
joshQuote Reply
I got the stomach flu yesterday and it sucks. It’s 100 degrees outside and I’m freezing. I still feel like shit today, but I feel better than I did yesterday.
dmick89Quote Reply
Coom just called Gregory Polanco 5-tool player after lamenting that the term was overused.
joshQuote Reply
I think the problem with the word ace is that it becomes a small hall, large hall kind of debate. I’m a large hall person. I see no reason that ace should be defined so narrowly. I’d say there are 20-30 aces in MLB at any given time and I don’t think it always has the same group of people. I think the top 5 is mostly safe, at least within a season anyway, but the bottom 5 is likely a rotating group that includes at least 10 different pitchers.
Rather than say Arrieta is at the bottom of the ace group, which can be defined 100 different ways, I’d rather just say that Arrieta is safely among the top 10 starting pitchers in baseball. He’s probably within the top 5.
Take Jon Lester as an example. I’d not include him among the aces last season, but would in 2014 and would certainly include him there in 2016.
dmick89Quote Reply
josh,
(dying laughing), he’s also probably not. i think his defense kind of sucks regardless off what the metrics say. I’m pretty sure they’re getting his defense wrong (assuming they are positive because everyone seems to say he’s good when he’s pretty bad).
dmick89Quote Reply
Szczur!!!!!
dmick89Quote Reply
I think you’d have to use future years too to determine ace in a statical manner.
http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/when-did-max-scherzers-talent-level-exceed-that-of-justin-verlander
In the comments, after linking to a couple other articles, Tango also says this, which is without a doubt true.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
fangraphs had him right at around 0 for defense.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89,
Not that I think he’s a bad player, but I don’t know.
joshQuote Reply
josh,
Looks like his DRS is just above average and UZR still well above average.
dmick89Quote Reply
josh,
No, definitely not. He’s a very good player. I just think he’s not only quite a bit worse defensively than the metrics say, but actually a bad fielder.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, I agree. He also doesn’t strike me as a power hitter, but I guess he does all right. I’m looking at last season where it looks like most of his value was… baserunning?
joshQuote Reply
Some days Rich Hill is an Ace.
MillertimeQuote Reply
How do you solve a pitcher like Arrieta? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
MillertimeQuote Reply
A lot of pitches for Arrieta so far, but he’s really working on that FIP today.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hell yeah, Jake.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Special cloud tackling netting.
dmick89Quote Reply
Millertime,
A flibbertijibbet! The Pittsburghpirates are clowns!
uncle daveQuote Reply
Contreras scouting report, if this hasn’t been shared yet:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-willson-contreras-scouting-report/
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
So it looks like the issue with waiting to call him up had more to do with his overall defense, which isn’t surprising given how long he’s been behind the plate. Maybe the fluency thing was a small part of it, but obviously not a big deal.
dmick89Quote Reply
Strikeouts and pop-ups which don’t leave the infield, sliders and change-ups thrown on a string. These are a few of my favorite things.
MillertimeQuote Reply
It makes way more sense.
MillertimeQuote Reply
The minor league pitching coaches must be so pissed at Jake right now.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
Yeah, because to believe that was the primary reason for not calling him up would require you to believe there was a colossal fuck up by the organization to not spend the last few offseasons working on it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Liriano is afraid to throw Jake a strike.
dmick89Quote Reply
It also interferes with the Contreras is a plus defender narrative.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
Good point, though I think given how optimistic Cubs fans have become, any player who could possibly be projected to be above average at something is suddenly well above average it. It’s kind of amazing at how poorly the Cubs beat writers still cover this organization. You’d think they’d be interested in reporting on some of this and trying to be accurate .
dmick89Quote Reply
I had a really good fastball when I was 10 years old. Pretty good 12-6 curve too. Tell that to Cubs fans and then tell them I was drafted in the 29th round this year and suddenly I’d be an all-star caliber steal the Cubs front office discovered all on their own. My 65 mph fastball would get obliterated in the minors leagues, but hey, I once showed promise with the fastball so I’m still well above average.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
You’d be part of this year’s genious drafting strategy of drafting players who were good at one point, and might be so again. Bonus points if you never strike anyone out and have already dealt with injuries.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
It’s doubtful I could strike anyone out and I’m still dealing with a pinched nerve in my neck that causes pain in my shoulders so we’re good. I should have entered the draft this year. Next year though.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m going to Europe on Monday. I figure the best way to prepare is to listen to the Sound of Music soundtrack.
MillertimeQuote Reply
I need Bryant or Rizzo to hit a HR so I can say that they’re 16, going on 17.
MillertimeQuote Reply
What the fuck is Hurdle out there arguing about?
dmick89Quote Reply
Liriano is terrible.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Baez should have just had the red light. Lirianio hasn’t been close to the zone the past inning or two.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Come on, Addy
dmick89Quote Reply
The Pirates hit a lot of batters, which I don’t mind. Pitching inside is solid strategy, and if it works, then teams should be doing it as much as possible. The problem is whenever the Pirate hitters get hit by a pitch, they immeadiately take it personally and start up a bean ball war.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Cubs have a chance at a Papa Slam.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Yeah, they’re terrible. They learned from Tony La Russa or something. Even worse than the Cardinals, they act like victims.
dmick89Quote Reply
If the Cubs lose this game, it’s really going to sting.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
Like the game on Wednesday, they’ve let several opportunities go. This game really shouldn’t be close.
dmick89Quote Reply
Pretty sure putting guys on in front of McCutchen is a bad idea.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jake is probably just challenging himself.
MillertimeQuote Reply
dmick89,
Not if you walk him!
joshQuote Reply
Freeze swings and misses at ball 4. Thanks for that.
MillertimeQuote Reply
josh,
#strategery
joshQuote Reply
Jake can still bat for himself next inning though, right?
MillertimeQuote Reply
It would be unusual if he didn’t.
dmick89Quote Reply
*makes fart noise*
sorry, just trying to even things out around here.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Millertime,
Twice!
joshQuote Reply
Jake getting some help from the Ump.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Does every count have to be this deep?
dmick89Quote Reply
Should have walked Ulysses on 4 straight.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Wow. Less of that, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jesus Jake. Pulled a Marmol there.
joshQuote Reply
Millertime,
Gameday thought it was in the zone. pitch 1 I mean. Borderline but in the zone. No idea if that means anything.
joshQuote Reply
GREAT, NOW MY BOSS KNOWS I’M WATCHING THE GAME BECAUSE I JUST STARTED YELLING AND CAN’T STOP
umbraQuote Reply
But it did really pump up the fans. If that had been Marmol, fans would have lost their minds.
MillertimeQuote Reply
umbra,
Just tell him you were really pumped up about completing a task for your job.
dmick89Quote Reply
josh,
Huh. My gameday mobile makes the pitch look high by a solid inch or two.
MillertimeQuote Reply
I’m listening to the game so I didn’t have the chance to see, but did the Pirates come to the plate without bats last inning?
uncle daveQuote Reply
josh,
Although that Cubs Strike ZoneTwitter thing put it way high and on the other side of the plate. I DON’T KNOW WHO TO TRUST
joshQuote Reply
Can Carlos Zambrano come back to the team for a visit yet, or is he still on the black list with Sosa?
MillertimeQuote Reply
uncle dave,
It seemed like once they got the bases loaded, they didn’t have much interest in trying to hit the ball. Jake fell behind so it was hard to tell, but even with 2 strikes, they looked more curious about whether or not they could take another walk.
dmick89Quote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
There has been an unusual amount of musical theatre referenced here today. (I don’t consider fart noises musical theatre, but YMMV.)
uncle daveQuote Reply
No, you need to listen to the band Europe. Preferably while microwaving a burrito.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Millertime,
black list. He’s also going without dinner. He has not eaten in a long time. He probably looks like Christian Bale from The Machinist.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,
Listen to The Final Countdown as your getting ready to take off.
dmick89Quote Reply
I believe there’s a Blazing Saddles musical in the works, so fart noises will soon be musical theatre.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
uncle dave,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsPJa_lVPHQ
MillertimeQuote Reply
dmick89,
That movie was freaky.
MillertimeQuote Reply
I’m surprised the Pirates haven’t retaliated for Jake hitting Jaso in the back foot yet. A couple of beanballs are surely coming.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m listening on the radio today, so can someone please let me know if there’s more than one store in Chicago that sells apples? If not, those would be some expensive apples.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,
Millertime,
Such poetry.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
I recommend the ham sandwiches that come with an apple that you can purchase in a gas station.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m more concerned about Ron Coomer’s sleeping troubles. Thank god he found a good pillow.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
dmick89,
16-year-old uncle dave agrees.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Do they still have those? Maybe they have a corn dog with an apple these days.
dmick89Quote Reply
uncle dave,
I’d have printed the lyrics, but bad language or abuse I never, never use, whatever the emergency.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Baez draws a walk!
MillertimeQuote Reply
I like the apples that are individually wrapped in celophane at super shitty motels that feature “free breakfast and ESPN!”
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Almora is making his case to stay on the team.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89,
I was more the vending machine sandwich type of guy. I went into a 7-11 for ice the other day and basically had to keep my eyes to the floor so as to not lose all faith in humanity, so I can’t tell you if they have old deli sandwiches anymore.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Pat “I had a hard time understanding Ron myself”. Nice.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Good AB by Addy so far
joshQuote Reply
Millertime,
Yeah, that was a great line.
joshQuote Reply
That’s 2 walks today for Baez, isn’t it? Is the world ending?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’m thinking it’s a dream world like in Inception.
MillertimeQuote Reply
dmick89,
Sources say “Yes”
joshQuote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
Addy better cash in on this. This is crazy
joshQuote Reply
10 pitches.
MillertimeQuote Reply
I’ll take that.
joshQuote Reply
12.
MillertimeQuote Reply
That was a great at-bat.
dmick89Quote Reply
His best PA ever.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
#DFAMontero
joshQuote Reply
I still cant believe Russell’s PA.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
Did Cahill really bat?
dmick89Quote Reply
Wouldn’t Cahill’s PA been a great way to get Contreras into the game? Or any other player on the bench that’s a better hitter than a relief pitcher.
dmick89Quote Reply
There’s some of that great defense by Polanco.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Heh heh
joshQuote Reply
dmick89,
Or Eddie Vedder? Or the Batboy?
joshQuote Reply
Another pretty good ab by Russel
joshQuote Reply
Russell has had a solid game.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Bad day for Miggy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What’s the toughest jam to pitch out of? Raspberry?
MillertimeQuote Reply
I’m sort of glad I didn’t watch this one. Jake’s occasional wild spells drive me up the wall.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Montero’s line out cost Contreras his MLB debut.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
You also missed Cahill batting for himself.
dmick89Quote Reply
I got that logout glitch again. First time in a while.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Contreras in behind the plate. Nice.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I should have many more opportunities to see that before the season is over.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jock.
mylesQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
They may be doing some work. The RSS feeds are still having the same issue.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fixed. (Got to get the meter right.)
Listening to this game, I was struck with an interesting idea for determining an ace: K-rate with runners in scoring position.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
He was fluent enough in the postgame interview.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Free “deli meat of indeterminate origin” strewn across the highway? Somebody alert Al!
http://gawker.com/free-lunch-in-jersey-1782161332
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
The Cardinals need to lose now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
…and as if on cue, Odor launches a solo shot to break up the scoreless tie. Only inning number five, though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Losing now is good too, but since they are so far back, it’s more like a “nice to have” than a “need”.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
No no, they need to just lose. Now and forever.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cardinals lose.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
10.5 game lead in mid-June. Good times.
dmick89Quote Reply
Been looking through the highlights. I love how Rizzo ran through second base to give the run a chance to score. I’ve seem him try that before, but I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen that play work.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Mariners and Mets have faded fast, falling to 6.5 and 5.5 back. The AL East is a three-horse race and the AL Central a four-horse race—all the other divisions leaders have five games on second place.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I love it in theory, but it’s a dangerous play. It also would have been nice if Fowler was running home rather than watching the play. I’m surprised they counted the run.
dmick89Quote Reply
Vin Scully doesn’t stick to baseball!
http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/06/18/vin-scully-not-a-socialist/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Zambrano is on the black list but Sosa has been elevated to the brown list. This is based on sammy getting an engraved paving stone along with other Cubs legends like Santo, Wilson, Sutcliffe and Yosh Kawano.
Big Z not included.
Is he worthy of a paving stone? They had ones for Grace, Buckner, Beckert etc I think so.
SKQuote Reply
OVCON2016 was a great success despite attendance being down by 60%.
Aisle 424 is a fantastic section to watch a game even if he didn’t show up this year.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
I still see Big Z jerseys around, I think he did enough to warrant recognition but he didn’t leave on the best of terms as we all know. Maybe that ultimately doesn’t matter.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I HAVE RETURNED
berseliusQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Fowler
Heyward
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist
Baez (3b)
Russell
Ross
Lester
berseliusQuote Reply
I opened the At Bat app to check out the scoreboard. I wanted to see if the Cardinals and Pirates were winning. This flu I had apparently gave me amnesia because I completely forgot the Cubs and Pirates were playing and I even watched the game yesterday.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/pirates-cubs-game-thread-6-18-16/
dmick89Quote Reply