The Cubs just completed one of the best weeks in their history by sweeping the Pirates in Pittsburgh and then sweeping the then 2nd best team in the league at home in 4 games. That puts them on a 7-game winning streak and their best record in team history in over 100 years. They’re going to lose some time and it’s going to feel like a let down. That’s how crazy this has gotten. I was actually disappointed yesterday when Jake Arrieta gave up a few runs and it briefly looked as though the Cubs would lose. There are only a few times in my life I can remember baseball being this much fun. 2008 four game sweep in Milwaukee that basically put the division away. After the poor start in 2007 the team went on a tear for a year and a half. 1998 is the other time.
Team Leaders
Padres (qualified batters)
- OBP: Melvin Upton, Jr. (.339)
- ISO: Matt Kemp (.262)
- HR: Kemp (8)
- R+RBI: Kemp (38)
- wRC+: Kemp (116)
- BSR: Wil Myers (2.2)
- SP K/9: Drew Pomeranz (10.85)
- SP BB/9: Pomeranz (4.24)
- SP FIP: Pomeranz (2.84)
- RP K/9: Ryan Buchter (12.89)
- RP BB/9: Carlos Villanueva (1.69)
- RP FIP: Fernando Rodney (2.66)
- WAR: Myers and Pomeranz (0.9)
Wil Myers and Matt Kemp has provided the bulk of the Padres offense. They’ve combined for 14 of the Padres 25 home runs. Myers has 6 and Kemp has 8. Neither are particularly difficult to pitch to from what I can tell. Myers has a walk rate of 5.1% while he’s struckout 24.8% of the time. Matt Kemp has surprisingly struckout less than I remember (18.9%), but has walked as much as I remember (2.4%). Brett Wallace has been very good in 55 plate appearances.
Cubs
- OBP: Dexter Fowler (.462)
- ISO: Anthony Rizzo (.360)
- HR: Rizzo (10)
- R+RBI: Rizzo (54)
- wRC+: Fowler (175)
- BSR: Jason Heyward (2.7)
- SP K/9: John Lackey (8.55)
- SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (1.87)
- SP FIP: Hendricks (2.66)
- RP K/9: Hector Rondon (14.29)
- RP BB/9: Rondon (0.00)
- RP FIP: Rondon (-0.10)
- WAR: Fowler (2.2)
Hendricks is only 5 starts into this season, but his 2.66 FIP leads the team. The Cubs number 4/5 starter has been excellent. He’s not their best pitcher and I highly doubt he leads the team in FIP at the end of the season. He might lead the team in best walk rate though. This is a great rotation. The Cubs have scored a lot of runs and I know overall I’ve been more in awe of the offense than the pitching, but the pitching has been every bit as good as the offense.
News, notes, vows of vengeance, etc.
Miguel Montero could come off the disabled list this week, which would be nice. Tim Fedoriwicz looked a little lost trying to catch Jake Arrieta yesterday.
Pitching Matchups
K/9, BB/9, 2016 ERA, 2016 FIP, 2016 Projected ERA listed for each pitcher.
Monday: Cesar Vargas, RHP (6.61, 4.96, 1.10, 4.24, 3.87) vs Jon Lester, LHP (8.55, 2.03, 1.58, 3.15, 3.10), 7:05 PM CT, 71% odds of winning
Vargas came over from the Yankees in the offseason and after a couple starts in AA, the Padres called him up. He’s made 3 big league starts and he’s thrown 16.1 innings. He’s done a good job of preventing runs. He’s stranded an unsustainable 97.2% of the runners. His FIP and xFIP are much higher. He’s kept the ball on the ground (58.1%) so far. He throws a cutter at 90 mph and a slider at 81 mph. He also throws a 4-seamer and has occasionally thrown a curve and change-up. Vargas has shown much better control in the minor leagues so I’m not sure the 4.96 BB/9 is indicative of his true talent. If he has trouble locating his pitches, the Cubs are going to run him out of the game by the 4th or 5th inning at the latest.
Lester has put together the kind of season so far that we all hoped for at the start of last season. He’s picked up right where he left off after a poor start to his 2015 season.
Tuesday: Colin Rea, RHP (6.88, 3.57, 3.82, 4.46, 4.31) vs Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.14, 1.86, 3.10, 2.66, 3.57), 7:05 PM CT, 69% odds of winning
Rea is making his 13th start in MLB. He hasn’t struckout all that many and he’s walked a little more than you’d like. It’s only 35.1 innings this season, but his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate his up. He showed good command in 2014 (A+, 2.40 BB/9) and early on in 2015 at AA (1.32 BB/9), but other than those 214 innings, his command hasn’t been too impressive. He throws a 94 mph 4-seamer and a 94 mph sinker. he also throws a cutter, curve and change-up.
Hendricks is off to a good start this year. He’s always been a groundball pitcher, but this year it’s at a career high 60.5%. Thanks to a 5.9% home run per fly ball rate, he leads the team in FIP.
Wednesday: Drew Pomeranz, LHP (10.85, 4.24, 2.12, 2.84, 3.44) vs John Lackey, RHP (8.93, 2.23, 4.02, 3.20, 3.49) 7:05 PM CT, 69% odds of winning
Pomeranz is striking out a lot batters this year. He throws a knuckle curve. According to Brooks Baseball reportoire at a glance, it’s been his primary pitch. He also throws a 4-seamer at 92 mph, sinker at 90 mph and a cutter at 88 mph. He doesn’t have great control so the Cubs could give him some trouble. They also could swing and miss at a lot of pitches out of the zone, though they’ve kept that to a minimum this season.
Lackey has had a couple of bad starts this season. He’s given up 6 runs twice, but both times he stayed in the game a lot later than you’d expect out of a poor outing (6 innings in his first start and 5.2 innings in his fourth). He’s been pretty good in the rest of the starts and twice this season he’s struckout 11, which I believe has tied his career high. He hasn’t walked many batters.