Series Preview: San Diego Padres (17-32) at Chicago Cubs (15-32)

In Series Previews by berselius68 Comments

Will the Cubs complete the hat trick of being swept by some of the worst teams in the NL? This time they have the additional challenge of getting swept at home.

Team Overviews

NL Rank in parens

  Padres Cubs
wOBA .278 (15th) .296 (14th)
UBR -4.4 (15th) 4.1 (1st)
UZR -1.7 (9th) 9.9 (5th)
DRS -7 (9th) 6 (5th)
SP FIP 3.98 (11th) 3.95 (10th)
RP FIP 3.74 (11th) 4.68 (16th)

The Cubs have already been swept by an NL team that has even worse offensive numbers. Now it's the Padres chance to bring up that average by feasting on the Cubs bullpen. The Cubs pen is the only one in the NL with a FIP above 4, and they have that beaten and then some.

Position players

Anthony Rizzo replacement Yonder Alonso has been their best hitter on the season with a .350 wOBA. As for the rest, the Padres have had four players post a sub .300 wOBA in over 100 PAs this year. The Cubs only have two (Stewart, Soto), though Soriano and Barney just miss the list. Cameron Maybin leads the Padres with 14 SB, and he, Wil Venable, and replacement level SS Andy Parrino lead the team in baserunning numbers. Not surprisingly, Alonso and C Nick Hundley are the major sinks in baserunning numbers. RF Chris Denorfia is projected to be their best defender, while Venable and Alonso are the worst.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Jeff Suppan, LOL (4.21, 5.13, 5.43, 5.11) vs Travis Wood, LHP (3.86, 5.31, 4.28, 4.00), 1:20 PM CT

Jeff Suppan has made five starts with the Padres, throwing 25.2 innings and striking out just five batters. Any of those batters who weren't pitchers should just retire immediately.

Travis Wood followed up his serviceable start to the season with a pretty good one against the Astros. He looked a little shaky early but then bore down and had great stuff the rest of the way. I was surprised to see that he only struck out three batters in the start, and he was pulled in the 6th inning after throwing 97 pitches.

Tuesday: Eric Stults, LHP (1.96, 3.59, 4.51, 4.27), vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.00, 2.96, 3.18, 3.95), 1:20 PM CT

Stults was a swingman/AAAA starter for the Dodgers for many years, and bounced around to the Rockies and White Sox before the Padres picked him up earlier this season after a DFA. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who hasn't given up a HR yet this year, and has a K/BB ratio of one. On the other hand, he looks like the kind of guy the Padres always seem to get serviceable production from (cf. Kevin Correia).

Shark had another solid outing without any run support against the Astros. He was hitting 95 to 96 on his fastball on the stadium gun, and his splitter looked as nasty as it has all season. His walk rate sits at a bafflingly low 2.84 BB/9. ZiPS has him projected at a sub-4 FIP even with a projected 4.50 BB/9, and if that walk rate has Transformed then wow.

Wednesday: Anthony Bass, RHP (3.55, 3.52, 3.46, 4.01) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.14, 2.70, 3.24, 3.88), 1:20 PM CT

Bass has been amazeballs as a starter this year, and has nearly doubled his strikeout rate from relieving last year. He was hammered in his last start by the Mets.

Dempster pitched into the 8th inning in his last start, giving up one run and taking the loss. He just doesn't want to win.

Share this Post

Comments

  2. ACT

    Here are the guys who struck out against Suppan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=suppaje01#gotresults&pitcher=suppaje01&min_year_game=2012&max_year_game=2012&post=1&opp_id=&bats=any&opponent_status=&c1criteria=SO&c1gtlt=gt&c1val=1&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1
    Looks like Galvis, Scutaro, and Weeks for position players. Galvis is a defense-only middle infielder who was only called up because of Utley’s injury. Weeks is normally a good hitter, but he’s struggled this year and struck out 184 times a couple years ago. Scutaro is quite surprising, since he’s an excellent contact hitter.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  3. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    A sign of just how bad the Cubs are this year: When I look at those pitching matchups, I would initially think the Cubs would win all 3 games. (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  4. mb21

    Rice in limbo wrote:

    That was an interesting article you linked to. I imagine the best athletes/pitchers have to get started at an early age and by the time they get to the bigs their arms already have 100000 miles on them. I’m not a terrible baseball/softball player but even playing once a week and playing catch you can feel the arm tense up as you warm up and I can only imagine the stress pitchers have to go through not just in warm ups but in actually delivering the ball to the catcher with enough velocity and movement…the arm just wasn’t designed for that kind of movement and wear, I guess.

    My arm started hurting when I was about 8 years old and I don’t remember a time playing baseball when it didn’t. I was throwing curves at the age of 6 so I doubt that helped, but I’ve always assumed it’s that way for most people who pitch.

    That article is also why I never blame the teams for a pitcher’s injury. He played 15 years with pain with pain and never said anything to a coach. These guys play through pain all the time. If a pitcher notified a coach every time he felt something in his elbow or shoulder he’d rarely take the mound. This doesn’t mean teams shouldn’t use their starting pitchers responsibly, but I think it’s insane to blame a team for a injury that likely already existed before he was even drafted.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  5. mb21

    Jeff Suppan has made five starts with the Padres, throwing 25.2 innings and striking out just five batters. Any of those batters who weren’t pitchers should just retire immediately.

    I felt the same way about those who struckout against Dolis. (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  10. GBTS

    I was going to ask any of you DC-ites if you know a good place to watch the Cubs game, and I’m (dying laughing) just imagining some of the responses.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Travis Wood looks like he spends his spare time acting in westerns. I would make fun of Lalli for striking out, but we graduated from college together at a tiny liberal arts school, and its great that a career minor leaguer gets a few MLB games because of injury.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  23. GBTS

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

    The Padres have hit 10% of their home runs this season in 3 innings against the Cubs.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  45. mb21

    I think plays that should be judgment calls for the umpire. Yeah, it hit the batter, but Lalli had no chance of fielding that. Run scores.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  54. shawndgoldman

    @ Rice Cube:
    …. ahhhhh…. YESSsss. I now recall.
    The tune they played from my youth, that I have not heard in ages also seemed to jog my memory.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  59. Author
    Berselius

    The Brewers aren’t just snakebitten, they fell into an entire lair of snakes. Currently injured an unable to play to various degrees:

    C Kottaras (hamstring cramps)
    C Lucroy (bruised hand)
    1B Mat Gamel (Torn ACL, out for year)
    1B Travis Ishikawa (DL with oblique strain)
    3B Ramirez (sore elbow)
    SS Alex Gonalez (Torn ACL, out for year)
    SS Cesar Izturis (DL with strained hamstring)
    SP Marco Estrada (DL with quad strain)
    SP Chris Narveson (Torn shoulder, out for year)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  61. ACT

    Wow, I didn’t realize what an extreme flyball pitcher Travis Wood is (career GB% of 32). Pretty much the worst possible pitcher to have on a day like this (except Suppan, who is the worst pitcher to have on any day).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  64. SkipVB

    @ ACT:
    Hmm. Suppan, or Anthony Young? I think we could debate this: ACT wrote:

    except Suppan, who is the worst pitcher to have on any day

    for a long time.

    Could be quite fun.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  66. SkipVB

    Neighbors are reporting strange events at the home of MB21. Apparently he was sighted drinking the blood of a chicken he’d just killed, while plucking the feathers and stuffing them into the brim of his Cubs cap, with the feathers hanging over his ears. “He was doing some kind of unusual dance, sort of like the Electric Slide, but with some mash up of Pin-Ball Wizard and I think ‘Go Cubs Go’ and every so often he’d interrupt it by trying to do a handstand, which he’s really terrible at,” his neighbor, Bill, said. Officials from the local mental facility were notified, but when they arrived and saw the Cubs sticker on his bumper, they turned around without making contact, so as not to interrupt the juju.

    Thanks for breaking the curse, MB
    Ref: @ SkipVB:

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  68. SkipVB

    @ SkipVB:
    Aah, well, guess the ref doesn’t work, but a few threads ago accused MB of cursing the Cubs by writing the “Bad Teams get Hot” post.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment