Despite the fact that the Cubs lost the series (as expected), I came away mildly impressed with the team’s performance in Colorado. Part of that could be due to the fact that I did not see them get shut out by Jhoulys Chacin (I had more pressing things on my mind). But that doesn’t bother me that much, Coors of no Coors. Chacin is a good pitcher. But the next day’s game was nice to watch. Coleman had a nice bounceback from his disastrous first start, and the offense piled it on (including HRs from Castro and Soriano) against a guy they should score some runs against. Castro continued to hit and even drew a walk in yesterday’s game, and while they didn’t get as many runs as I thought they would they still hit Johnson like the replacement level starter he is. Even Samardzija had a good outing. The Cubs lost in typical Cubs fashion in the 8th, but Mateo nearly got out of it. After an infield single that would have been an out had it not deflected off his glove, Fukudome misjudged a bloop hit to RF that lead to runners at second and third with nobody out in a tie game. Mateo struck out the next two batters before the Rockies broke through with the game winners.
The Cubs continue their stretch of 19 straight games against the NL west with a homestand versus the Padres. I wonder how often something like this occurs – from a quick look at it they’ll be done with the Rockies, D-Backs, and Dodgers for the season after this stretch.
Team Overviews
Padres projected record: 77-85, 4th in NL West, 2% chance of making playoffs
Cubs projected record: 78-84, 4th in NL Central, 5% chance of making playoffs
(NL rank in parens)
| Padres | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .277 (16th) | .338 (6th) |
| SP FIP, xFIP | 3.81 (7th), 4.02 (9th) | 4.21(11th), 3.79 (5th) |
| RP FIP, xFIP | 3.13 (3rd), 3.73 (6th) | 3.56 (5th), 3.50 (8th) |
| DRS | 4 (5th) | -11 (12th) |
Not a lot of surprises here for the Padres. Given their cavernous park you expect to see this kind of FIP-xFIP split (though small sample sizes still apply etc etc). You also expect putrid offense, but maybe not this putrid.
Batters
| Player | wOBA | ZiPS wOBA | Player | wOBA | ZiPS wOBA | |
| RF Wil Venable | .187 | .317 | SS Starlin Castro | .454 | .334 | |
| SS Jason Bartlett | .223 | .312 | 2B Darwin Barney | .354 | .296 | |
| 2B Orlando Hudson | .371 | .321 | CF Marlon Byrd | .301 | .333 | |
| 1B Brad Hawpe | .160 | .309 | 3B Aramis Ramirez | .399 | .355 | |
| LF Ryan Ludwick | .229 | .331 | 1B Carlos Pena | .288 | .371 | |
| 3B Chase Headley | .359 | .338 | LF Alfonso Soriano | .371 | .344 | |
| CF Cameron Maybin | .360 | .315 | RF Kosuke Fukudome | .384 | .336 | |
| C Nick Hundley | .439 | .315 | C Geovany Soto | .318 | .358 |
I hope I never have to watch a Padres-Astros game at Petco. I think it would take those teams 20 innings to score a run between them. A few Padres have minor injuries but nothing serious to report.
Pitchers
| Player | FIP | ZiPS FIP | Player | FIP | ZiPS FIP | |
| RHP Mat Latos | 5.33 | 3.39 | RHP Ryan Dempster | 4.66 | 3.78 | |
| RHP Tim Stauffer | 3.99 | 3.85 | RHP Carlos Zambrano | 5.32 | 3.82 | |
| LHP Clayton Richard | 3.26 | 3.82 | RHP Matt Garza | 1.18 | 3.95 | |
| RHP Dustin Moseley | 4.23 | 4.79 | RHP Casey Coleman | 6.25 | 4.95 | |
| RHP Aaron Harang | 2.12 | 3.79 | LHP James Russell | 1.06 | 5.31 | |
| RHP Heath Bell | 2.77 | 2.63 | RHP Carlos Marmol | 2.11 | 2.72 | |
| RHP Mike Adams | 2.93 | 2.77 | RHP Kerry Wood | 4.80 | 3.56 |
Latos is coming off of some shoulder problems suffered in spring training and is still knocking off the rust. Too bad the Cubs won’t see him this series. I’m excited to see Harang too. He was one of the underrated pitchers in baseball before his career was derailed by injuries, which may or may not be blamed on Dusty Baker running him out for, if I recall correctly, 4 innings on one day’s rest in an extra inning game a few years ago. ZiPS seems to think he’s still got plenty left in the tank.
Pitching Matchups
ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS projected FIP in parens
Monday: Tim Stauffer, RHP (4.80, 3.99, 4.22, 3.85) vs Carlos Zambrano, RHP (6.11, 5.32, 4.84, 3.82), 7:05 PM CT
Every time I see Stauffer’s name listed in a box score it brings to mind the taste of crappy stuffing mix (dying laughing). Stauffer’s been in and out of the league since 2005, and not surprisingly he has a home/away split of nearly a point in FIP. He doesn’t blow anyone away with his fastball, so he encourages batters to put the ball in play in their cavern of a ballpark and gets plenty of ground balls. Teams have hit him fairly hard this year and he didn’t get through the 5th inning in his last two starts.
Z has continued his “winning streak” from last season, going 2-0 despite not having his best stuff. He’s still a little wild around the strike zone, and his ground ball problem has persisted. We’ll see if he can go deeper into this lineup, but he had trouble with Houston’s banjo-hitting squad his last time out.
Tuesday: Dustin Moseley, RHP (1.83, 4.23, 4.40, 4.79) vs James Russell, LHP (7.20, 1.06, 2.70, 5.31), 7:05 PM CT
Moseley was a swing man with the Angels and Yankees before coming over to the Padres this year. He’s another guy who basically strikes no one out, even when he was a reliever. He’s another ground ball type, but not quite as good of one as Stauffer. The Cubs should be able to get to him.
Russell was not surprisingly hammered by the Astros in his first start, though the Keystone Kops behind him certainly gave them a lot of help. He’s better than that, but not that good. Hopefully he’ll take some inspiration from yesterday’s sacrificial lamb and merely pitch poorly, rather than shittily (laughing).
Wednesday: Aaron Harang, RHP (1.50, 2.12, 3.48, 3.79) vs Matt Garza, RHP (6.27, 1.18, 1.94, 3.95), 1:20 PM CT
Harang was never a capital G Great pitcher but he was a pretty good one, especially given the park he pitched in. For some reason I’ve always remembered him as a ground ball pitcher when he never has been in his career. He gets plenty of strikeouts (he led the NL in 2006) and is stingy with walks (led the NL in K/BB in 2007). His main problem was not surprisingly HRs, given the bandbox that is GAB. San Diego should be a great match for his skillset, assuming he can stay healthy.
Garza had another lousy start against Colorado, and this time it seemed he wasn’t being BABIPed to death like he was in his first start. The classifications are crude, but opposing hitters are hitting 35% of his balls in play for line drives. Maybe something is up. I know there was some news a few days ago that suggested that noted pitching genius Mark Fucking Riggins was trying to change his approach. If Garza changed back to however he pitched before, it certainly didn’t show up in his last start.
Prediction
The Cubs are at home, the Padres offense sucks, and I’ll say the Cubs move back to .500 after this series.
Comments
Just realized I mixed up Lester Strode and Mark Riggins in the post. They’re basically the same person in my brain anyway (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Not enough fagets.[/quote]
Typical Mish.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Typical Mish.[/quote]
Correct.
MishQuote Reply
Bubbles, I confused you with bubba biscuit. Inexcusable, I know.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Bubbles, I confused you with bubba biscuit. Inexcusable, I know.[/quote]
No dinner for you
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]No dinner for you[/quote]I already gave it to Bubba.
GBTSQuote Reply
I can’t wait to see how JG fixes that last comment.
GBTSQuote Reply
that padre lineup is worse than ours somehow
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I can’t wait to see how JG fixes that last comment.[/quote]
You already fixed it.
[quote name=GBTS]I already gave it to Bubba.[/quote]
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Soto is planted firmly in the #8 spot. I don’t get it.
AndCountingQuote Reply
If b had enough of a laugh of the Rays DHing Sam Fuld last night, rest assured, tonight they are running out Felipe Lopez as the DH AND cleanup hitter. (dying laughing) I’d be more upset if they hadn’t won all but one game last week.
And thus begins the worst Rays series of the year for me. Versus the White Sox, in Tampa, so no chance to go to a game, and stuck listening to Hawk Harrelson four times in one week. Ugh.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Soto is planted firmly in the #8 spot. I don’t get it.[/quote]
It’d be nice to see Soto and Ramirez batting 3 and 4 with Pena batting 5th.
I don’t think Quade is going to be as redicious about it as Lou was, but we might have to deal until Soto’s bat gets hot.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
(dying laughing) Keith Bogans got a vote for Defensive Player of the Year.
That’s like voting Jose Contreras for NL Cy Young last season.
GBTSQuote Reply
The whole lineup:
Castro
Barney
Byrd
Ramirez
Peña
Soriano
Fukudome
Soto
Zambrano
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]The whole lineup:
Castro
Barney
Byrd
Ramirez
Peña
Soriano
Fukudome
Soto
Zambrano[/quote]
Classic. 7 and 8 are top OBP guys on the team while 3 is one of the lowest. Oh well, guess Kosuke and Soto are setting the table for 3-run HRs from Z
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
mcnutt is off the dl for tennessee
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Bubbles, I confused you with bubba biscuit. Inexcusable, I know.[/quote]
you have been flagged. dont let it happen again
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Classic. 7 and 8 are top OBP guys on the team while 3 is one of the lowest. Oh well, guess Kosuke and Soto are setting the table for 3-run HRs from Z[/quote]
It’s not the best for winning ball games but 3-run homers from Z would make me giddy.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s not the best for winning ball games but 3-run homers from Z would make me giddy.[/quote]Only if the Cubs win because if he hits a home run and the team loses then they lost because he tries to hard to hit home runs.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Only if the Cubs win because if he hits a home run and the team loses then they lost because he tries to hard to hit home runs.[/quote]
He needs to stop making Koyie Hill look bad.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]He needs to stop making Koyie Hill look bad.[/quote]
So he should just stay on the bench?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Truly, a fate worse than death
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
Ummmm….k
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/18/reds-pitcher-mike-leake-arrested-for-theft
MishQuote Reply
thats weird
dylanjQuote Reply
Bob Davidson was the home plate umpire yesterday when Marcos Mateo gave up the eventual winning runs on strike four or strike five (forgot which). Lots of complaints about this guy. Cubs probably would’ve lost anyway, but the ump arguably was a big part of it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Bob Davidson was the home plate umpire yesterday when Marcos Mateo gave up the eventual winning runs on strike four or strike five (forgot which). Lots of complaints about this guy. Cubs probably would’ve lost anyway, but the ump arguably was a big part of it.[/quote]There was a blown strike three call on a pitch right down the middle of the strike zone. That turned into a bloop double. Granted, you never know what would have happened had Davidson’s head been somewhere other than up his ass, but Mateo did strike out the next two batters. Game would have been tied heading into the ninth. Probability would not have sided with the Cubs, but it would have been better than the 0% chance of winning they had with a 4-run deficit.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Batting Soto 8th is the Maginot Line of lineup construction strategy.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Only if the Cubs win because if he hits a home run and the team loses then they lost because he tries to hard to hit home runs.[/quote]
MB he only hits HRs to help himself, not his team. Everyone knows this.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]MB he only hits HRs to help himself, not his team. Everyone knows this.[/quote]b obviously “gets it.”
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]b obviously “gets it.”[/quote]
They don’t pay me the big bucks here for nothin.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Batting Soto 8th is the Maginot Line of lineup construction strategy.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
Seriously. You take one of the best hitters on the team and encourage teams to pitch around him in high leverage situations. Fucking brilliant.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Seriously. You take one of the best hitters on the team and encourage teams to pitch around him in high leverage situations. Fucking brilliant.[/quote]
Don’t worry. The Cubs can always bring in Blake DeWitt to pinch hit for the pitcher.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Don’t worry. The Cubs can always bring in Blake DeWitt to pinch hit for the pitcher.[/quote]Blake DeWitt is no Darwin Barney.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
robert whitenack has been added to bubbles prospect watch list
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
There’s something off about that chick, and IDK what it is.
MishQuote Reply
Maybe it’s the fact that she’s clearly transposed in front of the car.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]There’s something off about that chick, and IDK what it is.[/quote]She’s a Purple Revolutionist
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]robert whitenack has been added to bubbles prospect watch list[/quote]
Jimmy is sweet on Elaine!
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]She’s a Pinkosoreass[/quote].
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Seriously. You take one of the best hitters on the team and encourage teams to pitch around him in high leverage situations. Fucking brilliant.[/quote]
At least Zambrano is marginally more useful than Belgium.
PerkinsQuote Reply
[quote name=Perkins]At least Zambrano is marginally more useful than Belgium.[/quote]
Zambrano’s waffles > Belgium’s?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Joe Posnanski blogs about his Joe Shlabotnik:
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/04/18/poscast-with-my-baseball-hero/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Zambrano’s waffles > Belgium’s?[/quote]
(dying laughing), probably not.
PerkinsQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I already gave it to Bubba.[/quote]
Yeah, I got dinner! Probably the only time I win it though, I hope.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Heading off to a fun night at the ballpark.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Bubbles, I confused you with bubba biscuit. Inexcusable, I know.[/quote]
Ahh, dammit!!! Bubbles is a monkey, I ain’t no monkey!!!
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/04/18/418-cashner-wells-update/
Pray to your god of choice for good news.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
game thread is up: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/games/padres-at-cubs-4-18-2011.html
mb21Quote Reply