If the 2016 Cubs truly are back, it's hard to think of a better litmus test than a home series against the Cardinals. Of course, the Cardinals have been disappointing relative to non-BP expectations as well this year. The main thing that has taken a step back is their offense, which trailed only the Cubs in wRC+ among NL teams last year but now ranks ninth in the league. They were a dumpster fire defensively earlier in the season but appear to have righted the ship, posting 15.6 runs above average with the gloves. This may sound good, but it's actually fourth worst in the NL, where every team but the Padres has a positive defensive number somehow. I guess all the shitty defenders are in the AL, where negative defensive units thrive.
Team Leaders
Cubs
- OBP: Kris Bryant (.401)
- ISO: Ian Happ (.268)
- HR: Anthony Rizzo (23)
- R+RBI: Rizzo (116)
- wRC+: Bryant (141)
- BSR: Jason Heyward (2.4)
- SP K/9: Jose Quintana (9.78)
- SP BB/9: John Lackey, somehow (2.78)
- SP FIP: Quintana (3.73)
- RP K/9: Carl Edwards Jr (13.15)
- RP BB/9: Brian Duensing (2.20)
- RP FIP: Wade Davis (2.13)
- WAR: Bryant (3.2)
Urinals
- OBP: Kolten Wong (.391)
- ISO: Paul Dejong (.275)
- HR: Jedd Gyorko / Matt Carpenter / Dexter Fowler (14)
- R+RBI: Carpenter (99)
- wRC+: Tommy Pham (138)
- BSR: Tommy Pham (3.4)
- SP K/9: Carlos Martinez (9.71)
- SP BB/9: Mike Leake (2.31)
- SP FIP: Michael Wacha (3.32)
- RP K/9: Trevor Rosenthal (14.37)
- RP BB/9: Matt Bowman (2.25)
- RP FIP: Rosenthal (2.14)
- WAR: Pham (2.7)
Pitching Matchups
Based on the start times, looks like JD has the weekend off.
ERA, FIP, xFIP, projected ERA listed for each pitcher
Friday: Carlos Martinez, RHP (3.36, 3.77, 3.68, 3.48) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (4.17, 4.25, 4.05, 3.32), 1:20 PM CT
Martinez has bounced back from a relatively disappointing 2016 that saw a significant drop in his strikeout rate. This year, however, he has set a career high. It's come with siginificantly more balls going over the fence, but that could be said of pretty much any pitcher this year.
Arrieta has had a trio of good to great outings following a disaster start in DC. I'm going to need a lot more starts to be as convinved that he might have turned a corner as others around the Cubs o sphere.
Saturday: Adam Wainwright, RHP (5.08, 4.03, 4.07, 4.09) vs Jon Lester, LHP (4.07, 3.83, 3.62, 3.34), 3:05 PM CT
I have some sort of weird revese bias against Waino. I remember him getting off to a bad start to the year, but remember a good start or two since and just assumed that he had righted the ship. But here we are in late July and he still has a 5+ ERA. Having two nine run outings in June will do that for you.
Speaking of nine-ish run outings, Lester bounced back well from his disaster of a pre-ASB start with a solid outing vs the Barves, allowing just one run on three hits and a walk in seven innings.
Sunday: Michael Wacha, RHP (3.71, 3.32, 3.78, 4.02) vs Jose Quintana, LHP (4.20, 3.73, 3.90, 3.43), 7:05 PM CT
Wacha is coming off a complete game shutout of the Mets, so maybe he will be a little gassed. Not that shutting down the Mets 'offense' is a relatively impressive accomplishment these days.
Quintana, of course, had one of the best starts of any pitcher, Cubs or otherwise, in his last outing. He struck out 12 with no walks or runs, allowing just three hits over seven innings. I can't think of many better Cubs debuts.
Comments
Made me swoon a little
SKQuote Reply
Myles – 60 day DL (labrum)
Finally got shoulder surgery yesterday.
MylesQuote Reply
Apparently the Cubs have asked the Rangers about Yu Darvish.
But I heard he’s already going to the dance with the Hiroshima Carp.
RynoQuote Reply
Tough fit. Wouldn’t trade baez, Russell, or schwarber, and you’d need to include one of them.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Baez and Russell are pretty much worthless to the Rangers, who churn out middle infielders like it’s no big deal. I’m not even sure Schwarber makes a TON of sense with Gallo, Mazara and Choo handling the 1B/COF spots.
Texas is in a weird spot, that they don’t have any really glaring needs beside the bullpen. They’re pretty solid everywhere.
My guess is they’d target pitching.
RynoQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron:
Heyward
Zobrist
Rizzo
Contreras
War Bear
Happ
Russell
Baez (3B)
Arrieta
PerkinsQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
LAD makes the most sense for the Rangers and Darvish, imo.
RynoQuote Reply
I knew we should have traded you when we had the chance.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Yu Darvish and Jonathan Lucroy (rentals) to the Cubs for Caratini, Clifton, and Albertos. Yea or nay?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I meant to include Candelario too, but maybe Almora would be more to their liking.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Benefit to trading for Yu Darvish now – if you plan on signing him this offseason, you don’t give up a pick.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
If the Rangers are going to trade Darvish, just let some other team trade for him and then sign him in the offseason. I don’t want to give up anything for a rental.
dmick89Quote Reply
Willson!
Does Martinez know his hair is green?
dmick89Quote Reply
Willson!!!!
PerkinsQuote Reply
Schwarber is down 0-2 in every plate appearance.
dmick89Quote Reply
Either the gun is hot or Maritnez is hitting 100.
PerkinsQuote Reply
(Belated) WILLIE
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Nice start to the game.
Can we define a swing as the angle of the bat moving passed the point of parallel with the front of the plate no matter where in the zone in relation to the plate that is? Add an automatic no-swing if the ball is headed for the player and require the bat be pulled back before the ball breaks the plane of the front of the plate on a bunt.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I hate Grichuk.
dmick89Quote Reply
So many pitches.
Ugh.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This bouncing centerfield camera is making me feel nauseous. Or maybe that’s just Arrieta’s inability to put people away anymore.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
It has to at least be understood by most fans. I don’t think there’s a good solution to it.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
He has a one home run allowed minimum. He’s also just not very good anymore, but if Hendricks comes back and performs up to his talent, Arrieta is more than fine as the fourth starter down the stretch.
dmick89Quote Reply
Damn, Jake, hold up your end of the bargain.
uncle daveQuote Reply
What’s no good about how I defined it? It’s dead simple. From the pitcher’s/catcher’s perspective, if the bat appears to get foreshortened after lengthening, it’s a swing. I think it’s what the umps are already looking for.
ceruleanQuote Reply
More than twenty pitches an inning through three. I miss efficient and effective Jake.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Most fans, especially younger ones, currently understand the rule to be the bat crossing the front of home plate. That’s not really the rule, but I think that’s what umpires are looking for. It’s simple to understand and it has to be. I understand what you’re saying, but without a good explanation of what you mean, most fans are either not going to completely understand it or will get lost and give up.
I don’t like the check swing either, but you have to have something and no matter what it is, it’s going to be subjective and result in human error.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
That guy disappeared early last year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fucking BABIP dragon.
PerkinsQuote Reply
BABIPed again.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs have had a ton of baserunners in this game it seems. Arrieta will struggle to get through 5 and Martinez is looking to go about 7.
dmick89Quote Reply
Part of the BABIP problem for Schwarber is the shift.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
For so long, I thought he was a magician. Turns out, he was just a fucking illusionist.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Talking mostly about Contreras with the BABIP.
But nevermind—that liner was 72mph off the bat. I thought he got a lot more of it.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This is where Jake hits and then gets pulled one batter into the next inning, right?
uncle daveQuote Reply
Great swing by Heyward there.
MylesQuote Reply
uncle dave,
No, this is where the Cubs get the first two guys on with the middle of the order coming up and don’t score.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
FALSE!
dmick89Quote Reply
Feels like the Cubs should be up by a few runs at least.
dmick89Quote Reply
ANTONY!
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
(dying laughing)
Get a couple more across and run this clown, guys.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Wonder if cubs could get Jaime Garcia for Candelario.
MylesQuote Reply
Jinxed it. First the Titanic, now this.
MylesQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Or not.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Myles,
I talk a lot about politics, too.
uncle daveQuote Reply
So you’re the one responsible for not enough illegal* votes.
*By illegal, I mean minorities and women, of course.
ceruleanQuote Reply
SCHWARBER SHOWING HOPS!
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Illegal votes are all non-Trump votes. Trump really won the election by 62,984,825 votes.
dmick89Quote Reply
Schwarber is a dummy
MylesQuote Reply
Here we go again.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That’s not true. At least not yet. I still have faith.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Jesus
dmick89Quote Reply
I get the feeling all these LOB are going to come back to haunt the Cubs.
PerkinsQuote Reply
101mph for Martinez. Yeesh.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Strop against the Cardinals just seems like a horrible idea.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Here’s where Grichuk hits a home run.
dmick89Quote Reply
Perkins,
Glad I wasn’t the only one thinking that. Problem is, the Cubs have like two other guys in the pen you trust.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice play by Russell
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice play by Russell.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Shut me right up.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
I assume Edwards and Davis get the 8th and the 9th.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I went to get some water at the end of the inning and when I get back to check on the score there are already two outs. Was it two pitches or something?
dmick89Quote Reply
Not a fan of Tichenor’s strike zone today. At least by the broadcast strike zone, he’s calling a lot of strikes as balls.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Not great, Carl
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Cubs have been trying to give this away all day.
dmick89Quote Reply
A double play would be nice.
dmick89Quote Reply
All those LOB are really starting to look bad.
PerkinsQuote Reply
😐
ceruleanQuote Reply
A strikeout then DP, please.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Or maybe the Rondon special—three straight strikeouts like his last two innings.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rondon.
It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see how it plays out.
PerkinsQuote Reply
cerulean,
A triple play would also be nice
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
They’ll get one after they give up six runs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Not fun.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This game is bullshit.
PerkinsQuote Reply
:/
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Ugh.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs should have had about 8 runs to this point, so they deserve to lose.
PerkinsQuote Reply
All the numbers indicate the Cubs bullpen is good, perhaps very good, and yet I’ve not believed it all year.
What’s happening now is much easier to believe.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
This tight zone is doing no one any favors.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This. I laugh every time I hear that shit.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Justin Grimm will save us.
ceruleanQuote Reply
So, anybody up for a trade for Britton?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Yeah, I’ve not believed it either. I’ve said as much several times only to have RtR tell me I’m wrong. The numbers back him up, but the bullpen looks bad and has all year. Maybe they’ve lucked into some good luck along the way, but this is what I expect every time the bullpen comes in.
dmick89Quote Reply
I hope Grichuk tears his ACL running the bases. Fuck that guy.
PerkinsQuote Reply
cerulean,
No. I don’t want to trade anyone else. If they’re not good enough to reach the postseason, so be it. Another guy isn’t going to help.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice to see the 2017 Cubs back from taking an extended All-Star break.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
(dying laughing), there’s still nobody out
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Grimm’s going to give up a long ball here. Then the Cubs will score 6 runs between the 8th and 9th.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I was about three feet from being partially correct there.
PerkinsQuote Reply
JUSTIN GRIMM TO THE RESCUE!
ceruleanQuote Reply
At this point, I’d let him wear it. Doesn’t matter if he gives up 10 runs. Doesn’t matter if his arm falls off. No use wasting another reliever on this game.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Bases loaded, nobody out. This will go well.
ceruleanQuote Reply
What a dogshit game. Had a real chance at taking one off of Martinez. Prrrrrrrrrt
uncle daveQuote Reply
Try to finish up this inning before tomorrow’s first pitch, guys.
uncle daveQuote Reply
cerulean,
False.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Wow. Well, it was a decent game until the eighth.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Great play by Rizzo. Shame that didn’t happen the first time through the order.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Dammit Grimm.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I forgot that this is a home game, so these asshole clowns have to come out and pitch the ninth, too.
uncle daveQuote Reply
AND THE CARDS ARE DONE! YEA!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Can they score 8 runs if Robothal doesn’t cover first?
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs weren’t going to win every game, but losing this one kind of sucks. The bullpen wears it, but the offense should have put this game away. They had chance after fucking chance to do so. Regardless, if they can come back and win the last couple games in this series, it’s going to go a long way to convincing me that maybe they turned a corner at the all star break. Maybe, but I expect they’ll get swept and lose the first two against the White Sox.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maybe from now on the pitchers can just pitch complete games or at least go eight. Pretty fucking sad that the defending World Series champions have a team that needs eight innings from its starting pitchers.
dmick89Quote Reply
After today’s game I’m compelled to comment…
Hot dog sandwich: slice hotdog in half, fry in pan, place between bread with cheese and othe condiments of your choice.
Yummm!
BVSQuote Reply
Also, Darvish trade–not a fan for a rental. But Darvish for the other half of the Pelicans might be ok.
BVSQuote Reply
That game was dildos.
But Lester and Quintana are next, and the Cardinals aren’t great against LHP. I remain cautiously optimistic.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I am in favor of trying to get Britton for situations exactly like today. I am not into the rentals, but he has another year of arbitration.
ceruleanQuote Reply
What time does the game start today?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Justin Grimm does not need to be on this team.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Scherzer just gave up dingers to the first three batters of the game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
The Cubs bullpen would have just walked all theee of them.
dmick89Quote Reply
Heh, the Hot Doggers are looking tepid again, losing 5–0 to the irregular plural of Barf.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Jaime Garcia hits a grandslam!
9–0 Barves.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Alex Wood did as bad as the Cubs’ bullpen. Sure, only seven of the nine runs were earned, but the other two came on an error that he made—a dropped pop-up that would have ended the inning—instead, two runs scored.
Even the mighty Dodgers can and do look like shit.
ceruleanQuote Reply
12–1 and the boobirds are in for the blue. Where’s Dodgers_in_5 when you need him?
ceruleanQuote Reply
At least the Phillies beat the Brewers.
PerkinsQuote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron:
Zobrist
Bryant
Rizzo
Contreras
War Bear
Russell
Heyward
Jay
Lester
PerkinsQuote Reply
Is Bryant actually superhuman, feigning injury as an integration tactic?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Nice, I though Bryant would be out all weekend.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
That was a great play.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ok nobody jinx the no hitter
SKQuote Reply
I miss Aledmys.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Jason Heyward is doing a lot better hitting the ball. Give him a break.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Also that was a very impressive hit off that huge curve
SKQuote Reply
If the offense can score a couple runs (big if), Lester is looking good enough to spare us from the bullpen blowing it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Lester is looking fantastic today.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Don’t jinx the perfect game
SKQuote Reply
SK,
Don’t tell me what not to do
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Maybe the Cubs don’t realize that Wainwright isn’t very good anymore. Seems that should have been covered pre-game.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs should try elevating a ball.
dmick89Quote Reply
Stop. Grounding. Out.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lester has to keep pace with Quintana. He will not be outshined.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The MLB At-Bat app just jinxed Adam Wainwright, who has a perfect game despite Bryant and Heyward, obviously.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Of course.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Fuck you Adam.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs odds of winning this one is down to about 7.5%.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs must make Wainwrong pay
SKQuote Reply
Wake up, Cubs bats.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lester has been extremely mediocre. Fortunately, the Cubs’ bats are picking him up.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This is the inning where the Cubs fly out twice. Just watch.
dmick89Quote Reply
There’s one.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
Through the wickets!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rally!
dmick89Quote Reply
Not really 🙁
ceruleanQuote Reply
Anybody listening in the At Bat app have playback failures between innings? It’s so damn annoying.
ceruleanQuote Reply
deleted
dmick89Quote Reply
Voit is a big man.
dmick89Quote Reply
Crap.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I miss Aledmys Diaz.
ceruleanQuote Reply
What a waste.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs are not back. I hope we put that narrative to rest.
dmick89Quote Reply
Score. Runs.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
ZO!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bryant!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
ZOBRY!!!
ceruleanQuote Reply
KB!!!
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t despair. They will still probably lose the game.
ceruleanQuote Reply
KBBBBBBBBBBBB
SKQuote Reply
Rizzo!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow. Great base running.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
ZOBRYZZO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Well done fellas
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
9-spot, please.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I don’t know what that was.
dmick89Quote Reply
Damn.
Hold that thought.
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
holy shit
SKQuote Reply
Was that Joe hoping they could steal the bases and then forcing the Cardinals to walk Schwarber? If that’s what happened, Schwarber needs to be in Iowa.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’ve been having a lot of issues with the most recent version. No problems with between inning breaks but it will often lose its ability to play in the background, then gets super confused when I try to go back to the app.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
I hope Wade Davis is properly motivated by the rivalry.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Clean 9th, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
He should be. The Royals and Cardinals were rivals too.
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
It’s been doing that too. It must be a backgrounding bug. If I select a different feed, things start working again.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I’m using At Bat to stream to a Chromecast for the first time and it’s working great (I’ve had no issues with it on the phone lately either — audio or video).
My old Apple TV box died so I was hoping this cheap Google gadget would work OK, and so far no issues.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
The Apple TV app really sucks (old one and the new one).
dmick89Quote Reply
Davis needs to stop walking so many men.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
Yeah I’ve been having major problems with it too. I just shut it off and listened from my laptop instead. Let me know if you figure out a fix.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Jesus Christ
dmick89Quote Reply
The announcer said Davis doesn’t walk very many. WTF?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Less well done, fellas
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Wade likes it dirty.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
These announcers are wrong more than they’re right.
dmick89Quote Reply
I never doubted him for a second.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Too much stress. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Of course it ends like that. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Inverted M
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Bryant:
SKQuote Reply
The Brewers blew a seven-run lead.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Holy shit! Drunks gave up a seven-run lead over the Philanderers. Tie game.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Did they borrow the Cubs bullpen?
dmick89Quote Reply
Like the Orioles, the Phils can’t close the deal.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
I thought I saw Grimm throwing. It’s hard to tell—all white people look the same.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I really liked the game winning play, it forced a perfect throw. Luckily Dex was ever so slightly less than perfect.
http://atmlb.com/2tqgepD
Rice CubeQuote Reply
cerulean,
The Cubs should trade Grimm to the Brewers. That would instantly put the Cubs 5 games ahead of them.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
Dex’s defensive metrics, after being surprisingly decent last year, are back to being terrible.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-3-cardinals-2/
berseliusQuote Reply