I was too lazy to look up my usual team leader stats, so I’ll look at the potential NL wild card clusterfork (thanks, KT!). The Cardinals are now a half game behind the Giants and Mets. Here’s the rest of their schedules
Cardinals
- @Cubs (3 games)
- vs Reds (4 games)
- vs Pirates (3 games)
Giants
- @ SD (3 games)
- vs COL (3 games)
- vs LADoLA (3 games)
Mets
- vs PHI (3 games)
- @ MIA (3 games)
- @ PHI (3 games)
Pirates
- vs WSH (3 games)
- vs Cubs (4 games)
- @ StL (3 games)
The Pirates are 4.5 games back and have by far the toughest remaining schedule, so we probably will sadly have to cross off the possibility of a four-way tie, or a three-way for the second wild card (phrasing!). The Mets rotation is a mess but they probably have the easiest path of the remaining teams. There’s still a non-trivial chance that the Cardinals and Giants tie for the final wild card spot, which would be delicious. I’m not going to tempt fate to say which of these teams I would prefer the Cubs to face in the opening round of the playoffs, but the Cubs are significantly better than all of them. And we all know how much that is worth in the playoffs.
Pitching Matchups
K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, Projected ERA listed for each starter.
Friday: Mike Leake, RHP (6.31, 1.44, 4.54, 3.88, 3.84) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (8.55, 3.54, 2.96, 3.55, 3.74), 1:20 PM CT
Leake topped last year’s fWAR total so in some sense this year hasn’t been a disappointment. Still, it’s funny to see a team shell out $80 for a guy whose merely slightly above average first season is a surprise.
Joe’s got freedom to do more rotation manipulation before the playoffs start, but all the vibe I’m feeling is that Arrieta is going in as the number three starter. It would mean that he would start any potential game sevens if they stick with this ordering.
Saturday: Alex Reyes, RHP (10.29, 4.63, 1.03, 2.76, 4.07) vs Jason Hammel, RHP (7.78, 2.85, 3.56, 4.40, 4.18), 12:05 PM CT
The Cubs saw Reyes in the last series with the Cardinals after he came in for an ineffective Jaime Garcia and technically shut the Cubs down for four plus innings. I say technically because he walked six over that span, but the Cubs didn’t manage to get a run across against him.
Hammel has been fantastic at Wrigley this year, and this will probably be his last start in front of the home crowd this season. If you asked me a week ago I’d have said that he will not make the playoff roster, now I’m leaning in the other direction. It will be interesting if they bullpen him after this start to prep for the playoffs.
Sunday: Carlos Martinez, RHP (7.85, 3.21, 3.16, 3.64, 3.59) vs Jon Lester, LHP (8.67, 2.26, 2.36, 3.40, 3.20), 7:08 PM CT
Martinez has long been a pitcher that I underrate. His numbers are solid across the board, though his peripherals have taken a small dip this year thanks to a decrease in his strikeout rate. A decent chunk of that could probably be explained by him working deeper into games this year.
The Cubs likely game one starter had a scare earlier this week when he took a liner off his non-throwing arm, but it all sounds like it’s ok. As Lester joked after the game, he doesn’t really use that glove much anyway (dying laughing). Be prepared to hear his throws to first stuff mentioned about 20 times an inning while he’s on the mount. Or don’t be prepared. I can’t tell you what to do.
Comments
What’s Projected ERA?
Certainly not “end of season expected ERA based on progress so far.”
SKQuote Reply
Projected era in future starts? True talent level era?
berseliusQuote Reply
(Current ERA + π)/2
That’s how I do it.
dmick89Quote Reply
sounds like a bargain imo
uncle daveQuote Reply
Preemptive: please throw strikes, Jake.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You forgot to adjust for CERA smh
berseliusQuote Reply
Nine of them! Good work, Jake.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jake looking good today
berseliusQuote Reply
Cardinals looking bad today
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Yadi flat out sucks, per JD
SKQuote Reply
SK,
He’s looking like a shell of his former self.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Not a bad start to the game
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
11 of these in the playoffs, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
My feed sucks
SKQuote Reply
So does Mike Leake’s day
berseliusQuote Reply
Wow
SKQuote Reply
I have no idea why opposing pitchers still bunt when the Cubs defend the bunt so aggressively.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Miggy threw a runner out!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rough day for Russell.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This is an encouraging start by Arrieta that I hope to recently enjoy.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Heyward probably has a single if he doesn’t slide.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jake is looking really good today.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice of 2015 Jake to show up. I hope he stays for a few more weeks.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jake Arrieta Great Again
BerzeliusQuote Reply
Matheny lets his righty face two lefties in a row before bringing in Duke?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Some thoughts after missing every word:
The 6S is better, hands down. Make sure to get at least 32 gigs.
Contrary to the bullshit we grew up with, eating fat cannot make you fat very easily because the body literally cannot process and absorb all that fat. Carbs, however, are very easily turned into fat stored in the body because winter used to be a lean time and fattening up when carbs are plentiful gets us through the lean times.
Also, our bodies and minds need dietary fat to function, and many of the healthiest things in fruit smoothies won’t be absorbed without fat. So throw some coconut or avocado in there. And some full-fat milk. Hell, add some of that amazing Irish butter if you please. It’s for your health. Just cut down on the pizza and soda.
Great to see Jake Arrieta donning his superman attire.
That is all.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Isn’t the fat=bad belief based in the same silly reasoning that was used to demonize cholesterol (e.g. eggs)?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Good to have low leverage for Pedro.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I don’t know where the cholesterol thing came in, but I think it was based on the fact that people who tested high had higher risk of heart disease. So probably the same silly reasoning.
The fat thing came from flawed research in the late seventies that appealed to the folk logic of “you are what you eat”. A competing genuinely scientific study pointed to sugar being the problem with obesity, but sugar isn’t fat so that’s ridiculous. So cut the fat and add sugar to make the fat-free cardboard palatable. And lo, we have generation overweight. Science is hard.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dplete
SKQuote Reply
Really!? The Cubs can’t score against Jerome Williams!?
#FireTheo
ceruleanQuote Reply
Everything’s coming up Cubbies
SKQuote Reply
Wouldn’t have minded seeing Rondon here
BerzeliusQuote Reply
SK,
He was a real strain the Cubs’ buttocks last year, so let’s hope this lingers for several weeks.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Wood walked the only man he faced. Thank CB he didn’t reach first.
ceruleanQuote Reply
98
SKQuote Reply
Go Cardinals!
Go quietly!
ceruleanQuote Reply
SK,
Three more wins gives them the best record in living memory.
ceruleanQuote Reply
SKQuote Reply
cerulean,
One more win or a Nats loss and they can really lay back and cruise…
…not that they’re not already cruising.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Nats —–> lose
Cubs —–> top seed in NL
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Thanks a lot Cueto. No home field in WS smh
Rice in limboQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Fowler
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist
Russell
Heyward
Soler
Contreras
Hammel
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m starting to wonder if Contreras might be left off the playoff roster. I still don’t think it’s very likely, but the chance is bigger than I would have thought a week or so ago.
berseliusQuote Reply
Badgers making me eat my words so far here
berseliusQuote Reply
Stop sucking, Jason.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel shitting the bed after getting the first two batters out. Nice job Jason.
SKQuote Reply
At this point, I think it’s much more likely Hammel gets left off the roster.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I’m actually of the opposite view. I didn’t see where he’d fit before. Now that I know there will be almost certainly be 14 position players, plus the fact he can play OF, means he makes it and Coghlan or Szczur probably doesn’t.
SKQuote Reply
Joe planning Spring Training games next week.
SKQuote Reply
Zobrist!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They go, we go
SKQuote Reply
I’d give a small amount of money if Cubs can complete the comeback.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Nice of Hammel to give up his spot the postseason roster.
ceruleanQuote Reply
It feels like it’s the first game Contreras has played in weeks. His bat hasn’t been so hot lately either.
berseliusQuote Reply
The Cubs outfield defense isn’t doing Rondon any favors.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rondon is broken.
dmick89Quote Reply
It appears so, and bummer for him. But it doesn’t concern me too much postseasonally speaking. If the SP is on target, then the bridge to Chapman the bullpen will have to build will be a very short one, and I’m encouraged enough by the other guys that they should be able to get the job done. If the SP is not on target, well, we’re probably not winning anything anyway.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Um… aren’t we overreacting to a very small sample size here? Most of Rondon’s outings since his DL stint have been fine.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Possibly. And he has had a better September (and he’s rarely been truly awful). But for me, it’s still clear he’s not the same guy who didn’t deserve to lose his closer’s job to Chapman. He comes in a 1-run game in the playoffs, I’m probably hiding somewhere.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
This game sucks and so do the TV announcers.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Urge to kill was strong during that painful marathon.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
Szczur please.
BVSQuote Reply
Holy shit. Jose Fernandez is dead.
JKVQuote Reply
Well, this day sucks.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Fuck man.
JKVQuote Reply
I know this has been said before, but we need a different kind of downvote for the “I hate the news, not the messenger” moments.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
JKV,
Imagine waking up and seeing this as the top MLBTR story. I woke up quickly and not for the best reason.
Marlins canceled their game today. RIP Jose.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
That really sucks about Jose Fernandez.
PerkinsQuote Reply
His gf is pregnant. I’m struggling to see how this can get worse.
JKVQuote Reply
Universal spoiler: Everybody dies.
Ultimately, all of our stories are comedies of errors until ending inevitably in tragedy.
This is why there is baseball. I find it can help keep the demon dogs of inevitability at bay.
Sometimes.
But not today.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That’s fucked up. He went through so much just to get here and doesn’t get to enjoy it for very long.
dmick89Quote Reply
Do any of us get to enjoy it for very long?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Belated Game Thread
http://obstructedview.net/cardinals-cubs-game-thread/
berseliusQuote Reply