Series Preview Take 2: Miami Marlins (16-16) vs Chicago Cubs (15-16)

In Series Previews by berselius147 Comments

Well, that was a road trip to forget. Going 1-6 with five one-run losses is not what you want. Still, I’m gonna be the boring guy and say I’m still not too needle-movey on my opinion of the team. Sometimes you flip a coin and it comes up tails a bunch of times in a row.

Yes, the team is better with Mervis playing first base/DH instead of Hosmer. Who knows what the counter-factual would be if he were up. Baseball is just weird and annoying like this sometimes. That said, the bunt game was dumb af. I’ve been kind of meh on the Hosmer situation, but now it’s time. It looks like the Cubs agree, though its unclear as of writing this who is being bumped when Mervis is actually added to the roster. When Hosmer was hitting even crappier than expected in mid-April, I understood if didn’t necessarily agree with the ‘it’s only two weeks, the Cubs don’t want to look bad to other FAs for cutting bait so fast’ argument. As arbitrary as it is, the calendar turning and the bunt spotlight probably gives them enough cover now. I’m looking forward to seeing Mervis and hope he succeeds. It won’t take much to outhit Hosmer.

I’ll mostly repeat what I said about the Marlins in the front half of this LJS Double Down series (dying laughing). The Marlins win projections are about in line with the Cubs at this point in the season, so we should see some relatively evenly matched games. Their offense as a whole has gotten off to a slow start, posting a .244/.301/.384 slash line and a 90 wrC+ going into the first series, and their pitching staff posted a dead-on 4.50 ERA, so I guess expect a run every other inning. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

In addition to past…history…the Cubs have with the Marlins, I was surprised to find that old Cardinals pal Skip Schumacher is now their manager. Hopefully he left the voodoo back with the Provel in StL. Based on the Cardinals record this year and the Marlins record in one run games, signs point to Jobu moving to Miami.

(Projected) Team Leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Fishes

  • OBP: Luis Arraez (.372)
  • ISO: Jorge Soler (.218)
  • HR: Soler (27)
  • R+RBI: Jazz Chisholm (162)
  • wRC+: Yuli Gurriel (131)
  • BSR: John Berti (2.9)
  • Defense: Jacob Stallings (17.2)
  • SP K/9: Jesus Luzardo (10.03)
  • SP BB/9: Sandy Alcantara (2.24)
  • SP FIP: Alcantara (3.53)
  • RP K/9: Tanner Scott (12.06)
  • RP BB/9: Sixto Sanchez (2.64)
  • RP FIP: Dylan Floro (?!) (3.50)
  • WAR: Arraez (3.9)

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom / Swanson (24)
  • R+RBI: Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.4)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.2)
  • SP K/9: Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.89)
  • RP FIP: Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.2)

Who isn’t available?

Cyle is still rehabbing his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. He got knocked around again in his second rehab start but was likely still just working on his pitches rather than working on getting outs. He’s headed to Chicago to work on some mechanical stuff with the big league coaches. Yan Gomes is on the concussion IL; no word if it will stay the minimum 7 days. Adrian Sampson, already on the IL in the minors, was called up and put on the major league IL instead. Probably a precursor to some roster shenanigans with Mervis. Brandon Hughes is back on the IL with the same knee inflammation that he suffered in the spring. He looked good in his first few outings so hopefully he won’t be out long.

For the Marlins, old pal Johnny Cueto is on the shelf with a bicep injury and is rehabbing in J-Town, one of the top five swamp cities in Northern Florida. Starter Trevor Rodgers is out indefinitely with an indefinitely defined arm injury suffered a week or two ago, and has yet to pick up a baseball. Starting shortstop Joey Wendle has been out since early April with an intercostal strain. Since the last series with the Cubs, Avasail Garcia hit the IL with back tightness.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Fri-yay: Edward Cabrera, RHP (9.97, 4.65, 4.50) vs Justin Steele, LHP (9.04, 3.71, 3.68), 1:20 PM CT

Saturday: Bryan Hoeing, RHP (4.95, 2.61, 5.08) vs Drew Smyly, LHP (8.12, 2.66, 1.64) , 1:20 PM CT

Sunday: Sandy Alcantara, RHP (8.22, 2.34, 3.44) vs Hayden Wesneski, RHP (7.33, 2.99, 4.85),1:20 PM CT

Alcantara was great last year, to say the least, but he’s struggled in 2023. He hasn’t been particularly unlucky in any of his rate stats (e.g. BABIP, etc)…a lot of it just seems like good ol regression to the mean. He has walked more batters than in the past few years, but it’s not like he’s Carlos Marmol out there.

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  1. Author
    berselius

    Bonus fun fact on Alcantara – this 2019 fangraphs prospect report shows up on his fg page

    Prospects TLDR: It’s become more likely that Alcantara, who has elite arm strength, will end up as a dominant two-pitch reliever due to issues with his command and breaking ball efficacy.

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  33. andcounting

    Great to see the rookie get his first hit (111.2 mph) after they intentionally walked Mancini to get to him. I understand why he struck out two of the three times before that. He had to be Mervous.

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  43. andcounting

    The Rays have lost fewer games (6) than the worst team in the majors has won (Oakland, 7). The Rays are greater than the A’s and Royals are terrible. If the Rays’ win and loss columns were switched, their win percentage would be .182. They are better at the moment than any team in the modern era has been bad (1916 A’s, .235) and all but two 19th century teams (the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, .130; 1890 Pittsburgh Alleghenys, .169). They have little chance of maintaining this pace, but it’s a crazy good run.

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  45. Perkins

    I’ve long been skeptical of Yadi Molina’s HoF case, but I have a suspicion the Cardinals’ meteoric fall this season will strengthen it in many voters’ minds.

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  53. andcounting

    So they’re going to move Willson from behind the plate to out where the dandelions grow right as they’re returning to Chicago? That’s some cold-ass shit.

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  61. Rice Cube

    Feel like batters need to vary when they take their one timeout but I guess if you’re about to strike out that’s probably as good a time as any to get a breather

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  65. Perkins

    I would feel a lot worse for Willson Contreras in all this if he hadn’t gone full Ryan Theriot with the whole “right side of the rivalry” type comments.

    I got the sense it took Dexter Fowler about a month to regret signing with St. Louis and it looks like Contreras is on a similar trajectory.

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  67. andcounting

    This shitty streak would be a lot more palatable if they didn’t put multiple guys on base every single inning. I admire the creativity and all that but the constant pioneering of new ways to not score was not the innovation I was looking for.

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  68. andcounting

    The Cubs must have drained their MP because their attempts to cast the double play spell aren’t working.

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  70. andcounting

    Hard to give Jed an ounce of credit for not re-signing Willson when Nick F. Madrigal is on the roster.

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  73. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Yes, I rather enjoy waiting to see if Nick Madrigal becomes a different person while also waiting to see if Morel at some point stops being Christopher Morel.

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  74. andcounting

    Mervis having two RBI singles is nice, but he hasn’t officially arrived until he does damage to a video board.

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  76. BVS

    So the Cardinots bring up Barrerra to C behind Knizner, because they are still working with Willson on “how things are done here” but Barrerra also signed with the Cards in the offseason. Is “how things are done here” taught during spring training?

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  79. BVS

    BVS,

    If you don’t have access to Katie Woo’s article at the Athletic, it’s pretty damning of the StL org, in a read-between-the-lines sort of way.

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  91. BVS

    Rice Cube,

    Points league. And Harper just off the DL is already putting up more points. So is Duran in Boston and whoever the new guy in Oak Vegas is.

    Madrigal? Really?

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  111. BVS

    Watching Sea vs Hou tonite. Top 5 Relay throw from LF to C to throw out Dubon at the plate. But ump, Dan Bellino, emphatically calls runner safe because he says C blocks plate. Nevermind that C had the ball 4 feet ahead of runner and the path of the ball was along the baseline And the C didn’t shift into the line until making the tag. Bellino uses a Humpty dance to call Dubon safe.

    Scott Servais says about 6 words to Bellino before calling for the challenge. The Kingdome, or whatever Seattle’s field is these days, has a beautiful overhead shot of the plate. Egregious call overturned.

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  112. Rice Cube

    BVS,

    They really should redefine that rule and the slide rule and the baseline to 1B rule so we don’t get too confused, but that’s probably about as likely to happen as me understanding the balk rule

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  128. andcounting

    How in the world did Patrick Wisdom become the odd man out in the Cubs lineup? I’m just about done fed up with Ross this year.

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  130. BVS

    andcounting,

    Somewhere I read an explanation that he didn’t match up well with Al Cantara’s stuff. Might be the 57% K rate and .192 BA since they left for Miami.

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  141. Rice Cube

    Scanning the various comments which one should never do across the myriad social media it would appear the Cubs had poor situational hitting and poor decisions during critical ABs again

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  144. Author
    berselius

    Was painting my Faraday cage all day – how the f did a walkoff balk happen (dying laughing). New rules violation?

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  145. Rice Cube

    berselius,

    Well it wasn’t a walkoff although that would’ve been impressive, but what I saw suggested it was ambiguous so who knows, run probably scores on the double that came after anyway

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