The two best teams in baseball square off for a big four game series at Wrigley field. The Nats hot start has largely been driven by their pitching staff, which has allowed the second fewest runs per game in all of MLB. The team heading up the pack is the Chicago Cubs, who also lead the league in runs scored. What a time to be alive.

Team Leaders

Nationals

• OBP: Murphy (.449)
• ISO: Harper (.383)
• HR: Harper (10)
• R+RBI: Harper (44)
• wRC+: Murphy (192)
• BSR: Werth (1.3)
• SP K/9: Strasburg (10.07)
• SP BB/9: Strasburg (1.93)
• SP FIP: Strasburg (1.78)
• RP K/9: Perez (16.20)
• RP BB/9: Papelbon (0.75)
• RP FIP: Kelley (0.55)
• WAR: Murphy (1.8)

The Nats offense has been driven by Harper, who is doing Bryce Harper things, and Cub-killer/homophobe Daniel Murphy. It’s obviously been more than enough to propel them to a 19-8 record, but they’ve had a lot of replacement to sub-replacement level play elsewhere in the lineup. Michael Taylor has posted a Joe Mather-esque .184/.221/.296 on the year, worth -0.4 WAR. and starters/contributors like Espinosa, Rendon, Den Dekker, and Drew Zimmerman haven’t been too much better. But when your worst SP ERA is 3.55 (Scherzer, that bum) and your starters are averaging ~6.5 innings per start, it’s more than good enough.

Cubs

• OBP: Fowler (.470)
• ISO: Rizzo (.375)
• HR: Rizzo (9)
• R+RBI: Rizzo (49)
• wRC+: Fowler (180)
• BSR: Heyward (2.7)
• SP K/9: Lester (8.55)
• SP BB/9: Hendricks (1.57)
• SP FIP: Hammel (2.48)
• RP K/9: Rondon (15.00)
• RP BB/9: Rondon (0.00)
• RP FIP: Rondon (-0.27)
• WAR: Fowler (2.0)

Rizzo’s ISO went *up* 34 points in the series with the Pirates.

News, notes, vows of vengeance, etc.

Neil Ramirez was placed on the bereavement list with a death in the family, and is temporarily replaced by Spencer “Not David” Patton.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, 2016 ERA, 2016 FIP, 2016 Projected ERA listed for each pitcher.

Thursday: Joe Ross, RHP (5.56, 2.78, 0.79, 2.89, 3.84) vs Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.43, 1.57, 3.52, 2.50, 3.60), 7:05 PM CT

Ross came up midway through 2015 and had a solid year for the Nats. his debut was actually against the Cubs, who put up three runs in five innings an went on to win with a great start by not-yet second half Jason Hammel. He’s pretty much just a sinker-slider pitcher, and that slider is really good. He mixes in a change occasionally (presumably to lefties), and last year said changeup was very hittable. He has yet to give up a homer this season.

Friday: Max Scherzer, RHP (9.24, 2.84, 3.55, 3.75, 2.89) vs John Lackey, RHP (7.83, 2.43, 4.32, 3.31, 3.40), 1:20 PM CT

Between Lackey’s Lackey-ness and Max Scherzer’s creepy ass multicolored eyes, it’s a good chance that this will be a radio only game. Scherzer has been the “disappointing” member of the Nats rotation, even going so far as to post an ERA above three. His strikeout rate has dipped to only about a batter per inning this year, as opposed to the double digit K/9 he posted over the past four seasons. BUST.

Saturday: Gio Gonzalez, LHP (7.47, 2.59, 1.15, 2.76, 3.46) vs Jason Hammel, RHP (7.76, 3.10, 1.24, 3.03, 3.88) 3:05 PM CT

Gonzalez has been great this year, and weirdly enough feels like kind of an afterthought in this rotation despite posting 15 fWAR with the Nats over the past four seasons. Oddly enough he saw a huge jump in his ground ball rate last year, without much of a different in his pitch mix per pitchfx.

I’m enjoying First Half Hammel while it lasts, and it sounds like Arreita’s insane workout regimen/beard has been rubbing off on him so it would be even more enjoyable if it lasts all season.

Sunday: Tanner Roark, RHP (7.98, 3.52, 2.35, 2.88, 3.63) vs Jake Arrieta, Destroyer of Worlds (7.74, 2.51, 0.84, 2.79, 2.63), 1:20 PM CT

How the hell is this not the Sunday night game? Not that I wouldn’t rather listen to Len and JD. *looks at schedule* You could probably guess why on your first try.

Roark has had kind of a strange career – he started 31 games in 2014 as the Nats fifth starter and posted 3.1 fWAR, then lost his rotation spot going into 2015 and gave up roughly 237 home runs in 2015 while making mostly out of the pen. He’s been a very effective starter again this year, and managed to strike out 15 Twins in seven innings last month. He’s a plus plus control guy who throws a wide variety of things, so when he loses the handle things can be bad. If he gets a friendly ump I could see him shutting down the Cubs, and if it’s a tight zone, I could see him out by the third inning.

To-day’s base ball squadrons

Nats

Taylor CF

Rendon 3B

Harper RF

Zimmerman 1B

Murphy 2B

Werth LF

Ramos C

Espinosa SS

Ross P

Cubs

Fowler CF

La Stella 3B

Bryzzobrist RF/1B/2B

Kalish LF ??????

Russell SS

FedEx C

Hendricks P