After Starlin Castro‘s 3-error inning the other day a lot of talk began again about moving the 21-year old to 2nd base. It’s even been suggested that Darwin Barney (also a natural shortstop) be moved from 2nd to short. Mike Quade hasn’t even begun to think about that, which is great news. It’s not going to happen anytime soon and it shouldn’t.
However, Starlin Castro is a pretty bad fielding SS right now. There’s no way around that. Yeah, he’s exciting to watch. He’ll make some terrific plays. Let’s be honest, if Castro wasn’t hitting well at such a young age would we really care? Imagine if Castro was overwhelmed at the plate. If that was happening his defensive play would stand out more and we might even be suggesting a move to 2nd could help him.
While I think it’s too early to move Castro to a different position, he’s probably going to be moved there before long anyway. Scouts have said for awhile that his future was likely at 2nd or 3rd base. Jim Callis mentioned that he thought the Cubs would take a shortstop in the 1st round and move Castro to SS when he was ready. So that’s about 3-4 years or so. Or earlier.
While talk about moving positions at this point in his career seems quite unnecessary to me, it’s more than likely going to happen within a few years. I wouldn’t do it right now, but it’s not the end of the world if the Cubs did. If the Cubs did feel that he was focusing too much on defense and it was taking away from his offense then it might be a smart idea to go ahead and do it. On the other hand, if the Cubs think he’s going to improve then you obviously keep him there.
The defensive adjustment when calculating WAR for SS is +.75 and it’s +.25 for 2nd base. Say you have a SS worth -3 runs over a full season at SS. The defense moving to an easier position would be expected to be +2. The same .5 win loss in defensive adjustment per full season is gained back by the improved defense at the easier position.
Talk of moving to another position seems premature to me, but Castro is not going to lose any value by moving to 2nd base. He will remain every bit as valuable as he is at SS. He’d be a bit less fun to watch. As far as I’m concerned, it comes down to whether or not the Cubs think he can be an even better offensive player if he focused less on his defense.
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MishQuote Reply
There have been a ton of great shortstops in the majors who got off to terrible starts in their careers defensively. It’s a tough position to play. I agree with you that Castro should be given every opportunity at this position.. at least for a few years to see if he will improve. To me, Castro looks like a baby Cabrera or Hanley… if he adds some weight and power to his game, he may not be suited for shortstop anyway by then.
Tyler SmithQuote Reply
http://www.cubsfx.com/2011/05/garza-slides-past-snakes.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
Panda —-> broken hand
Mike Fontenot —-> Giants SS (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
I see no reason to move him right now either. He’s 21 and the youngest player in baseball. He’s had a lot on his plate the last year. I just think it’s inevitable that he’ll be moved to a different position. I really hated the idea awhile back, but I could easily see enough benefit of shifting him to 2nd right now. I wouldn’t do it and I’m glad the Cubs aren’t, but we know he’s spent a ton of time on his defense over the last year. At what point do you just say screw it and move him to a position where he can instead focus almost exclusively on the most valuable part of being a position player? I don’t know if the additional time spent on defense is affecting his offense. I’d assume since the Cubs are moving him that they believe it isn’t.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Panda —-> broken hand
Mike Fontenot —-> Giants SS (dying laughing)[/quote]
I was at the Giants-Nats game yesterday, and I really laughed when Fontenot was at SS. Tejada certainly can’t play there anymore, but Fontenot is not a long term option. He screwed up a couple of plays, but had some nice hits. The Nats are really, really bad again. They had 6BB and 2HBP in the first 2 innings and scored 1 run. I was laughing aloud.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]I was at the Giants-Nats game yesterday, and I really laughed when Fontenot was at SS. Tejada certainly can’t play there anymore, but Fontenot is not a long term option. He screwed up a couple of plays, but had some nice hits. The Nats are really, really bad again. They had 6BB and 2HBP in the first 2 innings and scored 1 run. I was laughing aloud.[/quote]
They’re really going to miss Zimmerman.
What do you think of the Nats park Nate? I was a little underwhelmed in my first visit, but any park that can be reached by public transit is a big plus for me. My main complaint was that they didn’t keep the hot dog vendors they had at RFK, who had by far the best stadium dog anywhere.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]They’re really going to miss Zimmerman.
What do you think of the Nats park Nate? I was a little underwhelmed in my first visit, but any park that can be reached by public transit is a big plus for me. My main complaint was that they didn’t keep the hot dog vendors they had at RFK, who had by far the best stadium dog anywhere.[/quote]
I liked it, that was my first visit, but I have tickets to see the Cubs there on July 4 this year too. I thought the hot dogs were still pretty good. I like that the stadium is kinda “open”. I like Camden Yards better though. Nats stadium was nice, I also appreciate being able to take public to a game, and to just walk up and get nice seats for 20-30 bucks is nice too. I did like it better than CBP in Philly, which is also accessible by subway.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
I don’t get the whole strikeout record for April thing. Wood struckout 46 in 30.2 innings. That’s over 13 per 9. It’s over 38% of the batters faced. If Wood faced as many batters as Garza he’d have struckout 61.
Speaking of early season 2001 Kerry Wood, the start to that season would have made Carlos Marmol jealous. Through June 1st of that season, the finally healthy Wood struckout 102 batters in 66.1 innings. He faced 283 batters (1 intentional walk). He struckout over 13 per 9 through the first 2 months of the season and over 36% of the batters faced. He struckout 42.5% of the batters that didn’t result in free passes. 56% of the batters he faced resulted in a strikeout, free pass or home run. He was Carlos Marmol before Carlos Marmol was Carlos Marmol. It was awesome to see Wood striking that many out after missing all of 1999 and some of 2000 recovering from injury. He was back. Not for long, but for a short time Kid K was back and as good as ever.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t get the whole strikeout record for April thing. Wood struckout 46 in 30.2 innings. That’s over 13 per 9. It’s over 38% of the batters faced. If Wood faced as many batters as Garza he’d have struckout 61.
Speaking of early season 2001 Kerry Wood, the start to that season would have made Carlos Marmol jealous. Through June 1st of that season, the finally healthy Wood struckout 102 batters in 66.1 innings. He faced 283 batters (1 intentional walk). He struckout over 13 per 9 through the first 2 months of the season and over 36% of the batters faced. He struckout 42.5% of the batters that didn’t result in free passes. 56% of the batters he faced resulted in a strikeout, free pass or home run. He was Carlos Marmol before Carlos Marmol was Carlos Marmol. It was awesome to see Wood striking that many out after missing all of 1999 and some of 2000 recovering from injury. He was back. Not for long, but for a short time Kid K was back and as good as ever.[/quote]
Its a real shame. Wood was so fun to watch. I was thinking about his early career at the Nats game yesterday in reference to Strasburg. Sometimes it’s like its almost too good to be true. Prior was similarly absurd early on, but not as good as Wood.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
I was at the Nats V Giants game last night as well. The wife asked me why Theriot wasn’t with the Giants since she thought that Theriot/Fontenot came as a couple. I like the new stadium in that it is comfortable and fun to go to but it is certainly nothing special. Wrigley is much more fun.
jherkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t get the whole strikeout record for April thing. Wood struckout 46 in 30.2 innings. That’s over 13 per 9. It’s over 38% of the batters faced. If Wood faced as many batters as Garza he’d have struckout 61.
[/quote]
The whole most X in April (or the 1990s) thing is an arbitrary endpoint stat, but I don’t think it’s fair to complain that Wood doesn’t get the credit here. IP matter too. If Wood pitched 4 innings per start and struck out 10 guys every time that would be great but innings matter too.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I love how the Hobbiton Post credited Garza for having the longest outing for any Cubs starter this year and neglected to mention that Z also went 8 innings in an even better outing against SD 2 starts ago.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]The whole most X in April (or the 1990s) thing is an arbitrary endpoint stat, but I don’t think it’s fair to complain that Wood doesn’t get the credit here. IP matter too. If Wood pitched 4 innings per start and struck out 10 guys every time that would be great but innings matter too.[/quote]It’s not about the innings total. Wood only made 5 starts. Garza started 6. It’s like saying the 2011 Cubs won more games in April than the best team in history (1906 Cubs). That team won only 10 games. The last World Series champion Cubs team didn’t get their 12th win of the season until May 9th. In Wood’s 5 starts in April, the game score in 3 of them were better than the best game score by Garza so far this season.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21] In Wood’s 5 starts in April, the game score in 3 of them were better than the best game score by Garza so far this season.[/quote]
Then just say best average game score. (dying laughing). I think this argument has the same root as the triple short of a cycle argument.
BerseliusQuote Reply
How many other people here live in DC??? I go to nats games all the time!!! Might go today!
Also got another direct message from Kaplan over castro
“thekapman
Yep, one play proves ur it. Forget the 34 errors he has made since last May 1st. Talk to MLB scouts. Oh wait, I forgot, u don’t do research.”
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Then just say best average game score. (dying laughing). I think this argument has the same root as the triple short of a cycle argument.[/quote]People argue about the triple short of the cycle?
mb21Quote Reply
I’m from the DC area but live in TX. We usually go to a game if we’re in town during baseball season.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]People argue about the triple short of the cycle?[/quote]
(dying laughing), I mean people who bitch about announcers saying that phrase. It’s a factual statement about a discrete event.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I’m from the DC area but live in TX. We usually go to a game if we’re in town during baseball season.[/quote]
why the fuck would you choose to be a cubs fan
(dying laughing)
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]why the fuck would anyone choose to be a cubs fan
(dying laughing)[/quote]
.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I mean people who bitch about announcers saying that phrase. It’s a factual statement about a discrete event.[/quote]True, but so is the fact the Cubs won more games in April than the 1906 and 1908 Cubs. The 1906-1908 Cubs were the best teams in franchise history. Only the 1907 Cubs won more games in April (13). If Paul Sullivan or Alvin Yellon floated that factoid in an article we’d laugh hysterically. Context matters.
mb21Quote Reply
Fuck, me and AL just made the same joke to a Julie tweet. Cleary this means I have to go suicide myself.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]True, but so is the fact the Cubs won more games in April than the 1906 and 1908 Cubs. The 1906-1908 Cubs were the best teams in franchise history. Only the 1907 Cubs won more games in April (13). If Paul Sullivan or Alvin Yellon floated that factoid in an article we’d laugh hysterically. Context matters.[/quote]
I can’t argue with you today. I think we’d both agree that it’s a meaningless statistic anyway.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I don’t get it. Are the kind of errors and mishaps that Castro is having only limited to the shortstop position? My unseeing eye thinks a lot of his problems are to do with lack of experience and being over-eager. He has the range and arm for SS, so let him get some seasoning at the position. If he continues to be bad, wouldn’t he also be bad at 2b or 3B? I don’t get the whole thing about not worrying about defense at an easier position. He still has to play the fucking field.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
That’s what I’d been thinking, SK. It seems like he is booting grounders more than he is throwing the ball away, so a shorter throw to 1st might help a little, but he’d still have to catch the grounder.
Granted, at shortstop he has to hurry a little more because of the longer throw, so maybe they think that would cure the catching problems, but I don’t think he’d suddenly be Ryne Sandberg at 2nd.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m sure it also has to do with the fact that there are more chances at SS than 2B, but I’d hate to see the potential wasted without giving it plenty of time to develop.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Tweets begging for Hendry to go get Millwood in 3… 2… 1…
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Tweets begging for Hendry to go get Millwood in 3… 2… 1…[/quote]I’ve been seeing that one for awhile, maybe even here.
The papers this morning indicate that Doug Davis will be ready when the 5th spot in the rotation rolls around again in a couple weeks.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]
The papers this morning indicate that Doug Davis will be ready when the 5th spot in the rotation rolls around again in a couple weeks.[/quote]
Awesome.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Awesome.[/quote]If Coleman or Dempster have more shitty starts, we could get Davis and Millwood. Awesomer.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
In a few years, he might just get Sori’d to the outfield.
jherkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]If Coleman or Dempster have more shitty starts, we could get Davis and Millwood. Awesomer.[/quote]
*puts gun to head*
Aisle424Quote Reply
I think Bibens-Dirkxcxzx would be fine in the five spot. Certainly better than Russell, who should never be in for more than 2/3 ip and then only to face consecutive lefties.
Diamond sucks and Jay Jackson forgot how to strike people out the moment he left Daytona.
Of course, Marshall is the obvious choice (b brought this up the other day).
GWQuote Reply
Yeah I guess they don’t want to fuck Marshall around anymore, but it sure would have been nice to throw him out there instead of the human batting tee.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]That’s what I’d been thinking, SK. It seems like he is booting grounders more than he is throwing the ball away, so a shorter throw to 1st might help a little, but he’d still have to catch the grounder.
Granted, at shortstop he has to hurry a little more because of the longer throw, so maybe they think that would cure the catching problems, but I don’t think he’d suddenly be Ryne Sandberg at 2nd.[/quote]He wouldn’t be Ryne Sandberg. Or Ryan Theriot either. He’d probably be slightly below average in the field at 2nd base.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I’m sure it also has to do with the fact that there are more chances at SS than 2B, but I’d hate to see the potential wasted without giving it plenty of time to develop.[/quote]Agreed and I’m glad the Cubs are leaving him there for the time being. It’s the right thing to do.
mb21Quote Reply
I think that all of the “send Castro to 2nd base” stuff is basically armchair coaching. It’s part of what people do in fandom in general: indulge fantasies about power and knowledge. Some folks do it in living room conversation, some on blogs, and some get print and radio platforms. Sadly, the ones with the print and radio platforms, & therefore the most power to influence opinion, seem to have the least knowledge. Kaplan is basiclaly saying “Well if I was in charge, this is what i’d do, because I’m really smart!”
But here’s the thing: IF Kaplan does do “research” (IE talk to scouts) and if somehow, magically, he became the Cubs GM tomorrow, I doubt he would move Castro to 2nd. Because the organization is depending on something in making the decision to keep him at short, and that something probably looks a lot more like Kaplan’s “research” than it does any kind of statistical analysis. I am pretty certain that if all of the scouts that Kaplan is citing were actually saying that Castro should move to 2nd now, that the Cubs would do just that.
UrkQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]
Of course, Marshall is the obvious choice (Colin Wyers brought this to b’s attention the other day).[/quote]
Credit where it’s due
BerseliusQuote Reply
oops- premature send: I meant to add this: that basically I’m arguing that Quade is a little smarter than Kaplan, tho it may be a tallest midget competition.
Also this: I think a lot of what’s driving this is the perception that your shortstop shouldn’t be out-hitting your 2B.
I think that leaving him at short is much better: its the position he wants to play and he’s hardly disqualified himself, except in the minds of a few armchair coaches. It will be better for his development as a player to do so, and as someone pointed out, the kinds of errors he’s making he’d likely make at 2B. Really, it seems to me that putting him at 2nd is a waste of his range, one of his plus attributes as a defender.
UrkQuote Reply
My impression was always that castro has a strong arm but doesn’t make accurate throws
BerseliusQuote Reply
Urk, I agree with what you say. I don’t think Kaplan would make the move himself if he were actually in charge. I say that because it’s obvious the Cubs scouts have yet to make that determination as you mentioned. If they decide at some point he’s better suited for another position, he’ll move.
new thread up: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/on-early-season-pythagorean-win-expectancy-and-the-chicago-cubs.html
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t know where Castro excels defensively. I can talk about what I see, but unlike Alvin, I don’t do the occasional scouting. I think as a group the fans can be better than the metrics, but I don’t trust my opinion on defense. I don’t trust the metrics either.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]My impression was always that castro has a strong arm but doesn’t make accurate throws[/quote]
Yeah, that’s what my lyin’ eyes tell me. That and good range. I think the accuracy of throws will come, too.
I think that he’s smart to try to stick at shortstop. It means that he stands out more as a hitter, that the competition that he’s judged against according to position, is lesser than it would be at 2B.
UrkQuote Reply
we suck out loud
dylanjQuote Reply