Starlin Castro has been ridiculously hot the last couple weeks. I was certain it was the best he’s played at the big league level. He’s hit for some good power over the last 15 games. He has 8 doubles and a home run. He’s slugging over .600. His ISO is nearly .200. He’s also taken 6 walks (all unintentional) so two of the three things that Castro has to do to become the star so many think he can become have been done the last couple weeks.
I was pretty sure it had to be the best 15 game stretch in his short career, but wanted to check. It worked out kind of nice since he’s played in 195 games now so we can break that down into 15-games quite easily. These are small samples of an already small sample size in his career so I’m not going to say anything else. I’m just going to publish the table below.
| Games | PA | UBB% | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | WPA | RE24 |
| 1 to 15 | 62 | 5.08% | 0.357 | 0.419 | 0.518 | 0.425 | 0.133 | 3.79 |
| 16 to 30 | 58 | 1.75% | 0.200 | 0.224 | 0.218 | 0.233 | -0.861 | -10.26 |
| 31 to 45 | 53 | 9.62% | 0.227 | 0.314 | 0.295 | 0.271 | -0.526 | -5.25 |
| 46 to 60 | 55 | 7.55% | 0.333 | 0.400 | 0.583 | 0.413 | 0.802 | 6.51 |
| 61 to 75 | 67 | 0.00% | 0.385 | 0.394 | 0.554 | 0.431 | 0.74 | 7.83 |
| 76 to 90 | 66 | 4.55% | 0.361 | 0.409 | 0.426 | 0.376 | 0.287 | 0.73 |
| 91 to 105 | 67 | 1.49% | 0.344 | 0.364 | 0.469 | 0.358 | -0.088 | -1.3 |
| 106 to 120 | 56 | 7.14% | 0.160 | 0.232 | 0.180 | 0.216 | -0.737 | -8.2 |
| 121 to 135 | 68 | 4.41% | 0.328 | 0.368 | 0.438 | 0.355 | 0.296 | 1.59 |
| 136 to 150 | 69 | 2.90% | 0.333 | 0.362 | 0.424 | 0.389 | 0.433 | 4.07 |
| 151 to 165 | 65 | 3.08% | 0.302 | 0.323 | 0.397 | 0.330 | -0.594 | -2.32 |
| 166 to 180 | 65 | 3.08% | 0.246 | 0.262 | 0.377 | 0.285 | -0.063 | 3.8 |
| 181 to 195 | 69 | 8.70% | 0.429 | 0.478 | 0.603 | 0.469 | 0.931 | 10.35 |
The only other stretch he was anywhere near as good as this one was games 61 to 75.
im jealous that md is at tonights game. Duffy looks like he could be a good starter down the road
dylanjQuote Reply
What are WPA and RE24?
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]What are WPA and RE24?[/quote]Pretty sure those are beers.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]im jealous that md is at tonights game. Duffy looks like he could be a good starter down the road[/quote]
decent chance to be his last start before being sent down, too
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]What are WPA and RE24?[/quote]
win probability added and run expectancy per 24.
RE24 looks at each plate appearance by the actual number of outs and runners on base (of the 24 possible) and credits the batter for the change in run expectancy before and after that plate appearance.
woba is essentially theoretical runs per plate appearance (scaled to look like on base percentage). woba assumes that each plate appearance occurs in a “league average” situation in terms of the 24 base/out states.
win probability added measures the change in win expectancy before and after a plate appearance, which is determined by run expectancy as well as the score and inning.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]R+RBI is theoretically essentially the sum of adding runs scored and runs batted in.[/quote]No shit.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]No shit.[/quote]
It’s an excellent statistic. The only one you’ll ever need to know.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]No shit.[/quote](dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
I actually prefer weighted R+RBI, wherein you subtract out homeruns so as not to double count.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I actually prefer weighted R+RBI, wherein you subtract out homeruns so as not to double count.[/quote]
I can see where that would be a superior statistic.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I actually prefer weighted R+RBI, wherein you subtract out homeruns so as not to double count.[/quote]
yeah, but where can you find the leaders for that in the past decade?
GWQuote Reply
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=606267
he likes it.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=606267
he likes it.[/quote]
Holy crap.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=606267
he likes it.[/quote]That’s awesome, but how silly is it that the site doesn’t give you PAs? And yes, I know the formula for figuring it out…
MishQuote Reply
That guy is 24 years old and playing for the DSL Cubs? Was he a pitcher they converted to position player or something? It looks like his first professional season is this year. At age 24. What the fuck?
mb2111111Quote Reply
I wonder what Quade will do when Barney comes off the DL. Will he move Castro back the the 3-hole because he’s hitting so well? Or will he keep him in the 2-hole because he as better numbers there (and everywhere else he’s hit)?
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]That guy is 24 years old and playing for the DSL Cubs? Was he a pitcher they converted to position player or something? It looks like his first professional season is this year. At age 24. What the fuck?[/quote]
Cuban refugee. The only reason I linked to it was to make the joke based on a recent commercial I enjoyed (that no one cared about, apparently).
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I wonder what Quade will do when Barney comes off the DL. Will he move Castro back the the 3-hole because he’s hitting so well? Or will he keep him in the 2-hole because he as better numbers there (and everywhere else he’s hit)?[/quote]I assume he’ll put Castro in the 2-hole, Barney in the two spot and try to squeeze Pena in after the leadoff man to balance the lineup out.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I wonder what Quade will do when Barney comes off the DL. Will he move Castro back the the 3-hole because he’s hitting so well? Or will he keep him in the 2-hole because he as better numbers there (and everywhere else he’s hit)?[/quote]I don’t think anybody knows what Quade will do. (dying laughing)
mb2111111Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]I assume he’ll put Castro in the 2-hole, Barney in the two spot and try to squeeze Pena in after the leadoff man to balance the lineup out.[/quote](dying laughing) with Ramirez in the 4-hole and Soto hitting cleanup.
mb2111111Quote Reply
I think he’s going to put Starlin in the first spot and lead off with Kosuke.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb2111111]I don’t think anybody knows what Quade will do. (dying laughing)[/quote]
False; everyone knows exactly where and when Quade will play them far in advance.
MishQuote Reply
we are on a mission to sign the worst & oldest cuban player alive
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s an excellent statistic. The only one you’ll ever need to know.[/quote]What about OPSRBIs? http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post/_/id/389/simple-stats-to-evaluate-teams-players
ACTQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Good news: Francouer is not in the lineup today. I can’t believe I just called that “good” news.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]we are on a mission to sign the worst & oldest cuban player alive[/quote]Signing young players hasn’t worked so why not? May as well try it all. In 5 years they’ll be the first to scout college softball and they’ll sign every one of them.
mb2111111Quote Reply
http://www.thecubreporter.com/2011/06/17/cubs-post-draft-signing-update
we have five now
GWQuote Reply
This is probably going to be a lot longer as people start digging up quotes and references:
http://lisasimpsonbookclub.tumblr.com/post/6830627144/the-bookshelf-of-lisa-simpson
MishQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
IDK how Casey is as a broadcaster, but that was cool recollecting how he and Konerko came up with the Reds together.
MishQuote Reply
Paul Holiman has been tearing it up with Boise so far
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]No shit.[/quote]
FYI
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]
[/quote]I did play baseball today, but that’s not what I was wearing.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]FYI
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I did play baseball today, but that’s not what I was wearing.[/quote]
nice dog.
GWQuote Reply
who found a picture of my softball team?
dylanjQuote Reply
I went 0-5 with 5 WAGs and an RBI.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Shit.[/quote]
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This is better…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]IDK how Casey is as a broadcaster, but that was cool recollecting how he and Konerko came up with the Reds together.[/quote]Yeah, those 26 games must have felt like a lifetime. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Adam Dunn has 96 K already.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Adam Dunn has 96 K already.[/quote]
Mark Reynolds had 223 in 2009 & I think that record still stands. Not sure. That’s a lot (dying laughing)
Horny GoatQuote Reply
Starlin Castro walked. I’m so proud.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Birthday boy gets a hit.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
hey RC, this is mlb.tv free game of the night, so you should be able to watch it online.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
It’s on WGN, thanks HG! 😀
Usually Cubs games in the Chicago area are blacked out via MLB.tv anyway.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
oh that’s right. I was watching on the Royals FSN. forgot it was on WGN and wasn’t sure where you were tonight.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
good grief another cub cut down on the bases!
Horny GoatQuote Reply
Terrible send.
melissaQuote Reply
Motherfucker…TOOTBLAN.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What the fucking fuck? Reed was barely around third when Gordon was coming up throwing. Jesus, I hate this team.
Aisle424Quote Reply
wavin wendall
dylanjQuote Reply
Well done, Cubs. Assholes.
Aisle424Quote Reply
The Amish guy was pretty shallow and he obviously has a very good arm.
melissaQuote Reply
That was a sac fly…sigh.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I didn’t blame Soriano for trying last night and in fact his hand was almost in there but jeez, let’s stop running on the royals!
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]What the fucking fuck? Reed was barely around third when Gordon was coming up throwing. Jesus, I hate this team.[/quote]
Yep, he was dead to rights, had no chance.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Also, note to Zeus: Reedz is not that fast.
melissaQuote Reply
Agreed. I had no problem with Sori last night, but this was just bad.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Also, note to Zeus: Reedz is not that fast.[/quote]
Who was Zeus again?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
There was a chance that last night, Soriano was safe…tough angle to see, but he might have gotten his hand on the plate prior to the tag.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Who was Zeus again?[/quote]
a greek god who pisses on the cubs
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Who was Zeus again?[/quote]
Greek God of thunder or Ivan DeJesus, 3rd base coach of nincompooppery
melissaQuote Reply
Someone was saying the other day how KC seems to do all the little things right that the Cubs just get as wrong as humanly possible. Small sample size, but this is the first I have gotten to watch them and that seems to be the case.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Most exciting triple in baseball.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What Bob fails to notice is that Zambrano moved closer to the base when he saw the throw was bouncing slowly to 3rd.
AndCountingQuote Reply
bob just made the point that Escobar is the relay man and lots of those outs made at the plate for the royals all year are made on the relay because of his strong arm. good point. Gordon being a former 3B helps and we know how good Francouer is
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]What Bob fails to notice is that Zambrano moved closer to the base when he saw the throw was bouncing slowly to 3rd.[/quote]
Interesting that you noticed this from the comfort of you home but the guy who is paid for noticing these things with the best view in the house did not.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Horny Goat]bob just made the point that Escobar is the relay man and lots of those outs made at the plate for the royals all year are made on the relay because of his strong arm. good point. Gordon being a former 3B helps and we know how good Francouer is[/quote]
Thank the FSM that I am not listening to Len & Bob on the free MLB.tv game of the day. I mute those bastards at a higher percentage than I muted Joe Morgan.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Cubs need to have the talent to take the extra base. I hate running into outs but we all know the cubs have no history of team speed. Not that I want all speedy guys. a middle ground would be nice.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]Thank the FSM that I am not listening to Len & Bob on the free MLB.tv game of the day. I mute those bastards at a higher percentage than I muted Joe Morgan.[/quote]
but Bob was right. I wasn’t joking. Escobar has a rocket just as their outfielders do. That’s important too.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=Horny Goat]Cubs need to have the talent to take the extra base. I hate running into outs but we all know the cubs have no history of team speed. Not that I want all speedy guys. a middle ground would be nice.[/quote]
I don;t even think Campana would have scored on that single. I really don’t. Maybe because the throw was up the line he could have, but a decent throw nails just about anyone. That was fucking retarded.
Aisle424Quote Reply
All though, on the Royals broadcast, Frank White was talking about how bad of a batting average the Royals have with RISP. Also, how you can look up and down the Royals roster and there aren’t any proven veterans that have had good RBI number proving they can handle the pressure and drive in runs consistently. Do all HoF players have to think that way? Is that a requirement?
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
7 pitches, 3 outs. It’s a Way of Life!
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Has anyone spotted MB in the crowd yet? He’s probably wearing his 3 Wolf Moon T-shirt.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don;t even think Campana would have scored on that single. I really don’t. Maybe because the throw was up the line he could have, but a decent throw nails just about anyone. That was fucking retarded.[/quote]
I’m not disagreeing with you there, but the cubs need to have guys that can not only hit with power and get on base, but can also run the bases better, that’s all.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Has anyone spotted MB in the crowd yet? He’s probably wearing his 3 Wolf Moon T-shirt.[/quote]
He better be wearing his Cubbie Facepalm shirt.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Ramirez plays defense?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Has anyone spotted MB in the crowd yet? He’s probably wearing his 3 Wolf Moon T-shirt.[/quote]
Horny GoatQuote Reply
(dying laughing) You have a good eye, HG
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=Horny Goat]I’m not disagreeing with you there, but the cubs need to have guys that can not only hit with power and get on base, but can also run the bases better, that’s all.[/quote]
Definitely. It would also help if the coaches knew what the fuck they were doing. This is just brutal out there. Quade’s staff is a fucking joke.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I can understand muting Len and Bob because Bob is annoying as hell. But Len is good enough to make it worth it 90% of the time.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I can understand muting Len and Bob because Bob is annoying as hell. But Len is good enough to make it worth it 90% of the time.[/quote]
yeah, I don’t mind Len at all.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]I can understand muting Len and Bob because Bob is annoying as hell. But Len is good enough to make it worth it 90% of the time.[/quote]
It seems like the last 5 times I have listened to Len & Bob, they have just talked about their band or some band they saw last night for most of the inning and then say 1 thing about how Player X needs to get a good run going soon. That is all the time I give them before mute or turning it off.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Definitely. It would also help if the coaches knew what the fuck they were doing. This is just brutal out there. Quade’s staff is a fucking joke.[/quote]
indeed
Horny GoatQuote Reply
I do wish all announcers would be more critical but we all know what happens when they do that (dying laughing)
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]It seems like the last 5 times I have listened to Len & Bob, they have just talked about their band or some band they saw last night for most of the inning and then say 1 thing about how Player X needs to get a good run going soon. That is all the time I give them before mute or turning it off.[/quote]That’s because Bob is an easily distracted idiot and Len is probably more amused by baiting him into rambling about absolutely nothing than by the shitty team he has to announce about.
DoogolasQuote Reply
uh oh, Len just brought up the blown call at 1B in the 1985 WS (dying laughing)
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=Horny Goat]uh oh, Len just brought up the blown call at 1B in the 1985 WS (dying laughing)[/quote]
Brenly hates the human element.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]That’s because Bob is an easily distracted idiot and Len is probably more amused by baiting him into rambling about absolutely nothing than by the shitty team he has to announce about.[/quote]
You know, that is a great point. If I had to watch this shit day in, day out and not be able to call it shit, I would have to try to think of other shit to do and talk about.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
an infield hit (basically) and now a walk to a slap hitter. c’mon Z.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
Thus endeth the shutout.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]You know, that is a great point. If I had to watch this shit day in, day out and not be able to call it shit, I would have to try to think of other shit to do and talk about.[/quote]I’m not even really kidding either, Len baits the hell out of Bob, and Bob falls for it every time, and Len laughs his ass off for half the inning.
DoogolasQuote Reply
They have more speed, yes, but their team still sucks, slightly worse than ours in fact.
DoogolasQuote Reply
At least until the end of this game.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]They have more speed, yes, but their team still sucks, slightly worse than ours in fact.[/quote]
1. That is actually debatable.
2. They have something to look forward to, we don’t.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
Holy shit, Bob can count!
DoogolasQuote Reply
Rodrigo Lopez warming up (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]1. That is actually debatable.
2. They have something to look forward to, we don’t.[/quote]1. Their record is worse right now. By the only count that matters with teams this awful, they are thus worse.
2. Yes we do. Starlin Castro and bunch of other people on our AA team, and a few more that will be in AA soon. Just cause theirs got promoted a little earlier this year doesn’t mean we won’t see our guys as well. All of them may not be /as/ highly touted, but we definitely have a few guys of our own that are extremely close to seeing the big show that are also highly regarded.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Z’s got one more inning, if that.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
happy 33rd b-day Aramis. 2-1
Horny GoatQuote Reply
Happy birthday Rami.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Drop a few more so we can trade you for some goodies.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Soto! Booya! Back-to-back!
DoogolasQuote Reply
Geo!!!!!!! (dying laughing)
2-2
Horny GoatQuote Reply
Soto > Hill
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Sotoriffic!
AndCountingQuote Reply
Did Bob essentially just say, “With the exception of left field, it’s tough to hit HR’s here”?
DoogolasQuote Reply
The Trifecta would be nice here
melissaQuote Reply
Come on, Fonzie, let’s see a lazy threeway.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Oh well. Just a selfish single.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Come on, Fonzie, let’s see a lazy threeway.[/quote]
Too lazy.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pena should bunt for a hit here
Horny GoatQuote Reply
The Cubs are not allowed to lose until Z is out of the game.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Did Bob essentially just say, “With the exception of left field, it’s tough to hit HR’s here”?[/quote]
it is a pitchers park for HRs unless you hit it to LF.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
Can’t see the play live, but Yuni just hit an inside-the-park HR against the Twins. I think someone was hurt on the play.
Yup, Delmon Young had to leave.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Alex Gordon has said the ball doesn’t carry much to right or CF since the renovation, and it wasn’t a big HR park to begin with.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
Reed —> average speed SB
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Castro running through first base FTW!
AndCountingQuote Reply
Z still chuggin’ along.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hmm. Wonder if Q sacs the DH to put Kosuke in RF.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Horny Goat]Alex Gordon has said the ball doesn’t carry much to right or CF since the renovation, and it wasn’t a big HR park to begin with.[/quote]
Which is fine, but why did he have to say it in such a roundabout way. It was just an extremely bizarre way to say the ball doesn’t carry except to LF.
I mean, I was legitimately asking if that’s what he was saying, because the way he said it was just really bizarre and I couldn’t tell if he meant it only carries to the very corner and he just didn’t realize Castro it to Left-center or if he just meant it carries to LF in general.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Oooh…good throw, bad tag attempt…good slide.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
f7 is awful
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]f7 is awful[/quote]
He just cost Geo a passed ball.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
ha! can’t believe F7 got him to chase. 2 outs
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]f7 is awful[/quote]
he’s been pretty, pretty, pretty good lately
Horny GoatQuote Reply
just don’t walk the guy
Horny GoatQuote Reply
go figure (dying laughing)
Horny GoatQuote Reply
Fucking Shark.
DoogolasQuote Reply
not the time to use your bare hand F7
Horny GoatQuote Reply
At least it’s not Z getting the loss, but they’ll probably give him crap for giving up two cheap runs 😛
Rice CubeQuote Reply
He’s selling that bullshit.
DoogolasQuote Reply
seems like Russell should’ve been in a bit earlier. Cubs have lost six 1-run game in June so far. Tonight will be 7.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
[quote name=Veena Sud]Mariano Rivera blew a lead before. Jeff Samardzija is glad to be in the same conversation[/quote]
.
BerseliusQuote Reply
That is an evil curve by Soria.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pena was guessing.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Well, at least Blake DeWitt wasn’t batting third today (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New stuff (same old story):
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-in-no-hurry-to-end-103-years-of-being-losers.html
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube] Cubs was guessing.[/quote]
Cubs lose
Horny GoatQuote Reply