The other day I happened to think of Ronny Cedeno and how awful he was in 2006. I couldn't help but wonder how Starlin Castro's 2013 season compared to Cedeno's 2005.
| Year | Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
| 2006 | Cedeno | 572 | 3.0% | 19.1% | .094 | .296 | .245 | .271 | .339 | .263 | 47 | -4.4 | -0.8 | -1.8 |
| 2013 | Castro | 326 | 3.7% | 18.7% | .090 | .275 | .228 | .264 | .318 | .257 | 56 | -6.6 | -0.7 | -1.1 |
I'm sure you never wanted to think about Cedeno's 2006 season again, but there it is, along with Castro's current season. Despite a better offensive batting line, Cedeno's wRC+ is worse because the league offense was higher in 2005.
Starlin Castro hasn't been as bad offensively, but he's been far worse defensively. In roughly 250 fewer plate appearances, his baserunner has been equally bad. They both played SS so they had positional adjustments on their side when calculating WAR. Despite that, were so bad that they were more than a win worse than replacement level.
Among qualified Cubs hitters since 2001, Ronny Cedeno's 47 wRC+ is the worst. Castro's playing time is considered to be qualified since we're not even to the halfway point yet. If he never played the rest of the season, he wouldn't be.
Including the 2013 qualified Cubs hitters, Castro ranks as better in wRC+ than only Ronny Cedeno since 2001. Both the in-season ZiPS and Steamer projections project Castro will finish the season below replacement level.
ZIPS projects he'll end the season with -0.4 fWAR, which would put him better than only Cedeno in WAR among qualified hitters since 2001. Steamer has him finishing with -0.2, which will tie him with Alfonso Soriano, better than only Cedeno.
Unless Castro is significantly better than the rest of season projections, he's likely to finish the year as having one of the worst seasons by a Cubs position player since 2001 (among qualfied players). The thing is, if you suck this much, you usually don't get that amount of playing time, but Cedeno was young and so is Castro. Castro has also shown he's much better than this.
I didn't want to stop at 2001 so I looked back to 1991. It didn't change Castro's current ranking.
If you go back to 1981, Ivan DeJesus' 1981 season takes the worst spot in wRC+ (42). Castro is 3rd worst. What amazes me about DeJesus' 1981 is that he had a 10% walk rate and only struckout 13.3% of the time. He also carried a .227 BABIP, which is a big reason why he was so bad.
As I mentioned, Castro has half a season left to play and his numbers should improve. Castro is still going to have one of the worst seasons among qualified Cubs position players when it's all said and done, but he should be able to brag that it's only the 3rd, 4th or 5th worst.
I went back to 1951 and found that Castro is now 4th behind Don Kessinger among qualified Cubs position players.
Since 1901, Castro currently has the 5th worst wRC+ among qualified Cubs.
Comments
Not that it means anything, there are apparently 3 team officials who are convinced the Marlins won’t trade Giancarlo Stanton. I know we’d talked about how awesome it would be if the Cubs went after him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fuck you.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Fuck this shit
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Anyone think it could be a partying problem? He did get in that unfortunate situation earlier this year.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
So to recap: The team sucks. The AAA team sucks. The future leaders already on the team are getting worse. And it smells like skunk in my office. Anyone else want to pile on?
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Umm…wut?
RynoQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I’m open to any ideas.
dmick89Quote Reply
Glad to see the Cub giving another Young Player a chance. Bogusevic has a chance to be the next Micah Hoffpauir!
BerseliusQuote Reply
Ivan deJesus was my first favorite Cub. Though looking back I think all those times my Granddad was shouting his name was frustration and not cheers.
Cubs traded for him and traded him away and got the best of the deal both times.
mobile svbQuote Reply
Hey. Did you hear the Cubs cut Ian Stewart?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
mobile svbQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
2008!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
And to a lesser extend, 2007. And maybe 2003.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Let’s not forget 1907 and 1908. Those were magical years!
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
You’re also fat.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
So, how’s Starlin Castro doing these days? Good?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Better than Ronny Cedeno.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
I hate Cubs fans.
Aisle424Quote Reply
CNN is talking about Snowden’s sleeping conditions. I’m not joking. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m sitting in the Atlanta amtrak station and that discussion was going on behind me on the tv. I thought I misheard them. Now you’ve confirmed I didn’t. Damnit.
I think he’s a spy. But I think the bigger question about government surveillance is totally being whitewashed in this discussion. Another failure by MSM. Let’s focus on if the guy has a mosquito net in Ecuador. That’s easier than the discussion about where the line is for freedom of speech and search and seizure.
mobile svbQuote Reply
I don’t know if he’s a spy or not. I’m leaning toward no, but really, it doesn’t matter to me. The actions of one or the actions of an entire government? I’m much more concerned about the latter.
dmick89Quote Reply
Only Victor Martinez and Jeff Keppinger have a lower WAR this season than Starlin Castro.
MylesQuote Reply
Also, can we just dispense with the notion that Dale Sveum doesn’t get his lineup suggestions from us
MylesQuote Reply
Pretty disappointing that the only good players on the Cubs are scrap-heap pick-ups and short-term dudes: Sweeney, Schierholtz, Valbuena, Gregg, etc. and the “core” dudes like Rizzo, Castro suck. I guess Samardzija is doing good this year. Still, not encouraging. I’m hoping for a positive second half from Rizzo and Castro.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
I don’t think Rizzo has sucked, But he certainly had his ups and downs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo is 8th in WAR among 1B this year.
MylesQuote Reply
Wait, Schierholtz is slugging .572? How did that happen?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Myles:
And 15th in WARP (1.0). Colin’s fielding metric doesn’t like him as much as MGL’s.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
He has a career-high HR total this year.
MylesQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Good to know, but honestly BP hasn’t been as good ever since Silver left forever ago. I would be interested in learning more about their defense metrics, though.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I think Colin has improved the stats there quite a bit to be honest. He’s done tremendous work in overhauling their stats.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d take Colin over Nate Silver any day of the week. With Pizza Cutter, Ben Lindbergh (who is a pretty damned good writer), and 100% less Will Carroll, I don’t think the site has ever been better.
GWQuote Reply
Anibal Sanchez and his messed up throwing shoulder or Edwin Jackson?
GWQuote Reply
I miss Mike Fast, though. Damn Astros.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Myles:
FRAA creates a metric based solely on play-by-play metrics so as to avoid biases, which Colin thinks makes UZR, DRS and other metrics that use batted ball data unreliable. It’s also regressed for the WARP calculations, so it avoids some of the extremes that you get for fWAR and rWAR.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11589
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ GW:
Anibal Sanchez and his messed up shoulder
dmick89Quote Reply
GW wrote:
I need you to qualify this with a red, yellow, or green light in order to properly interpret the changes.
BerseliusQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Tomorrow is July 2nd?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
July 2nd is the start of the new IFA signing period.
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply
@ GW:
That being classic Chicago baseball.
Gerund PerryQuote Reply