Albert Almora: 2-4, 2 2B, R, 2 RBI, BB, SO
- Albert Almora grounds out, third baseman Peter O'Brien to first baseman Angel Villalona.
- Albert Almora walks.
- With Taylor Lindsey batting, missed catch error by Angel Villalona on the pickoff attempt, Albert Almora to 2nd.
- Albert Almora hits a ground-rule double (2) on a fly ball to left-center field. David Freitas scores. Dixon Machado scores.
- Albert Almora doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Cory Vaughn.
- Albert Almora strikes out swinging.
Jorge Soler: 1-5
- Jorge Soler lines out to second baseman Gift Ngoepe.
- Jorge Soler grounds out, shortstop Alen Hanson to first baseman Angel Villalona.
- Jorge Soler singles on a line drive to left fielder Alex Dickerson. Matt Skole to 2nd.
- Jorge Soler grounds out, shortstop Alen Hanson to first baseman Angel Villalona.
- Jorge Soler grounds out, second baseman Gift Ngoepe to first baseman Angel Villalona.
Armando Rivero: 1 IP, 2 H, R, ER
- Pitching Change: Armando Rivero replaces Robert Benincasa.
- Gift Ngoepe doubles (1) on a pop up to shortstop Dixon Machado.
- Alen Hanson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Zach Borenstein. Gift Ngoepe to 3rd.
- Jarrett Parker out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Albert Almora. Gift Ngoepe scores.
- Cory Vaughn pops out to catcher David Freitas in foul territory.
- Alex Dickerson lines out to shortstop Dixon Machado.
Prospects to Date
Albert Almora: 8-14, 3 2B, 3B, HR, 6 R, 8 RBI, BB, SO (.571/.600/1.143), 2/7/4 FB/GB/LD
Dallas Beeler: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K
Kris Bryant 8-18, 3 ROE, 2B, 5 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, BB, 2 SO, SF, E (.444/.450/.833), 8/6/3 FB/GB/LD
Lendy Castillo 2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, SO, 1 WP, 4.50 ERA, 18.00 R/9, 2.700 WHIP, 2/4/3 FB/GB/LD
Wes Darvill 2-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB (.500/.667/1.250) 1/2/1 FB/GB/LD
Matt Loosen 4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 ER, BB, 2 SO, 4.15 ERA, 8.31 R/9, 1.615 WHIP, 4/4/6 FB/GB/LD
Armando Rivero 3 IP, 3 H, R, ER, 3 SO, 3.00 ERA, 3.00 R/9, 1.000 WHIP 4/1/3 FB/GB/LD
Jorge Soler 5-26, 3 2B, 4 R, 4 RBI, 6 SO (.192/.192/.308), 2/11/6 FB/GB/LD
MEGAPROSPECT
Aloris Brolera: 20-58, 3 ROE, 7 2B, 3B, 14 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 3 BB, 9 SO, E, SF (.345/.361/.655), 1.016 OPS
Comments
BUST!
WaLi mQuote Reply
Would it shock you if I looked at his 2/11/6 batted ball splits and said that he’s actually been pretty good so far? Fly balls are what kill batting averages, and he hasn’t hit that many of them. Sure, the strikeouts aren’t great (nor is the lack of walks), but the sample size is ridiculously small, and I’ll take 23% LD and 7% FB any day of the week.
MylesQuote Reply
I’ll take the LD% but we should like to see a guy like Soler hitting some fly balls, right? Can’t utilize his power if he’s hitting everything on the ground.
MVWQuote Reply
yes and no. Line Drives generate their fair share of HR, especially from a guy like Soler. Flyballs, particulary infield fly balls (which I’m not differentiating between in my counts), generally don’t do very much. You’d expect around 10 to 11% of flyballs to go for home runs, and maybe Soler would be more like 14%. If Soler had his GB and FB flipped around, he might have 1 HR, but we’d expect to him to have maybe 2 or 3 fewer hits than he already has.
I’m not exactly sure what the probability of each batted ball type falling in for a hit is, but I’d wager his xBABIP would be north of .300 and his BABIP right now is .200.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I agree, but I think any stat over this many plate appearances is virtually useless. I wouldn’t draw any conclusions on the LD% at all. In fact, I’d just look at his slash stats and say he’s not been very good at leave it at that. Maybe things will even out, but so will the LD%. I’m also not sure how good the batted ball stats are in the AFL and whether or not you should consider soft line drives to be line drives. I’d be more inclined to include them with fly balls since, really, what we’re talking about with each is the time the ball is in the air.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
We could solve this by you being an eccentric billionaire who recreates hit f/x and also installs it in the AFL for some reason, but you aren’t an eccentric billionaire (probably). So disappointing.
MylesQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/lets-talk-about-2002.html
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
We could solve the accuracy for the most part if the technology was installed, but we couldn’t make the sample size more valuable. For what it’s worth, I think the batted ball data is pretty good as it is. We have no idea what is being classified as a soft line drive and can only include it with line drives as you’re doing. That said, and you already know this, not all line drive percentages are equal. Miguel Cabrera’s line drive rate could be worse than Starlin Castro’s, but still better at the same time. He hits the ball harder than Castro.
The biggest problem with AFL stats, in my opinion, is the level of the pitching isn’t comparable to the level of the hitting. I mentioned this the other day, but the league as a whole has been compared to advanced AA before. The hitting is possibly better than that, on average, but the pitching is worse.
Then there’s sample size and it’s probably even more of a problem than the disparity in pitching and hitting.
I’m glad you’re keeping the stats as you are. It’s nice to see it in this form and the more data the better. I’d just be careful to draw any conclusions. Especially at this point. The sample issues never entirely go away. It’s how guys like Sam Fuld can win the Arizona Fall League MVP.
The AFL is overrated IMO. I’m glad it exists because I like looking at what these prospects are doing, but I think it’s mostly worthless. Same as the other Winter Leagues. I don’t think it tells us anything about the player. You could safely ignore all AFL performances and you’d know as much about the player than if you included it. I might even go as far as to say you’d know more if you ignored it. I think that’s true for hitters anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think the main reason I like the AFL is it lets players get more playing time under the teaching of their own teams development staff. Soler and Almora would have to wait til spring to get that, and they missed all that time because of injuries.
NateQuote Reply