Kris Bryant: 1-3, HR, R, 2 RBI, BB, SO
- Kris Bryant grounds out, third baseman Jake Lamb to first baseman Kyle Parker.
- Kris Bryant walks.
- Kris Bryant strikes out swinging.
- Kris Bryant homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. David Freitas scores. (OPPOSITE FIELD)
Jorge Soler: 1-3, BB
- Jorge Soler flies out to right fielder Stephen Piscotty.
- Jorge Soler walks. Kris Bryant to 2nd.
- Jorge Soler grounds out, shortstop Cristhian Adames to first baseman Kyle Parker.
- Jorge Soler singles on a line drive to left fielder Tim Wheeler.
Albert Almora: 0-0
- Offensive Substitution: Pinch-runner Albert Almora replaces Jorge Soler.
Armando Rivero: 1 IP, 2 H, R, ER, BB
- Kenny Wilson walks.
- With Ryan Brett batting, Kenny Wilson caught stealing 2nd base, catcher David Freitas to shortstop Addison Russell.
- Ryan Brett grounds out, second baseman Devon Travis to first baseman C. J. Cron.
- Jake Lamb doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Jorge Soler.
- Stephen Piscotty singles on a line drive to center fielder Brian Goodwin. Jake Lamb scores.
- Kyle Parker grounds out, shortstop Addison Russell to first baseman C. J. Cron.
Prospects to Date
Albert Almora: 11-37, ROE, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 6 R, 9 RBI, 2 BB, 2 SO, CS, 20 TB (.297/.333/.541), 6/17/10 FB/GB/LD
Dallas Beeler: 10 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, HR, 5.40 ERA, 5.40 R/9, 2?/6?/4? FB/GB/LD
Kris Bryant 19-45, 3 ROE, 6 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 14 R, 16 RBI, 5 BB, 14 SO, SF, 2 SB, E, 33 TB (.422/.471/.933), 12/9/8 FB/GB/LD
Lendy Castillo 6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 4 SO, 1 WP, 1.50 ERA, 6.67 R/9, 3/10/5 FB/GB/LD
Wes Darvill 3-12, 1 R, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K, 6 TB (.250/.357/.500) 1/7/4 FB/GB/LD
Matt Loosen 7.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 3 ER, BB, 7 SO, HR, 3.68 ERA, 6.14 R/9, 5/7/8 FB/GB/LD
Armando Rivero 7 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 5 SO, 3 BB, 7.71 ERA, 9.00 R/9, 4/5/8 FB/GB/LD
Jorge Soler 15-50, 4 2B, 1 HR, 8 R, 9 RBI, 12 SO, 2 BB, 22 TB(.300/.327/.440), 3/19/14 FB/GB/LD
All-Stars
Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant
Comments
If the AFL was equivalent to the Midwest League (A) ball, Kris Bryant’s translational slash would be .295/.333/.579.
Yes, please.
MWL: .295/.333/.579
FSL: .337/.381/.688
SL: .357/.404/.742
AFL: .422/.471/.933
MylesQuote Reply
If you map out his small sample size along a 99% confidence interval and assume a normal distribution (a very shaky assumption, but close enough for already shaky MLE math), the theoretical lower bound for Bryant’s “true” talent level is a .233/.291/.837 slash (you can see why this is shaky, right?). That translates to the following MLB lines for each league talent level:
MWL: .162/.196/.485
FSL: .184/.226/.586
SL: .195/.240/.637
If the assumptions held true, you’d be able to say with reasonable confidence that Bryant would OPS, at the very worst, 681, at the major league level.
The reason this assumption falls flat is because slugging percentage really doesn’t follow anything really resembling a normal distribution. It takes much longer for slugging percentage to normalize than OBP or BA. Still, kind of interesting. I’d say that the absolute lower bound for Bryant given his AFL performance is .190/.230/.360.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
So he’s better than Josh Vitters.
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
…not exactly. If I say that Bryant’s absolute lower bound on his MLB performance is .190/.230/.360, I’m saying that’s his true talent level. He could theoretically hit .100/.120/.240 or so over some small number of PA and be compared to Vitters unfavorably.
In fact, let’s look at Vitters’ MLB numbers and see what we come up with.
Vitters had a hit 12.1% of the time over 99 trials. That means that the 99% confidence band is 8.46%, so his theoretical upper maximum is .206 (again, we are assuming that distributions are normal when they are not, ESPECIALLY among the extremes of performance).
Vitters reached base 19.3% of the time over 109 trials. That means that the 99% confidence band is 9.75%, so his theoretical upper maximum is .291 (same caveat applies).
The problem we run into with slugging is it’s no longer a simple trial that passes or fails. There are 4 types of success (single, double, triple, home run). If we broke them into their respective types (and combined them at the end), you’d perhaps get a more accurate number, but I think you’d get so much noise as to make the data unusable. To that end, I just use TB/AB. He had 20 in 99 trials for 20.2%. 99% confidence band is 10.41, so the theoretical upper limit is .306.
tl;dr; Vitters true talent level last year could have been as high as .206/.291/.306. It’s reasonable (though the reasoning is quite shaky and relies on some rather dubious assumptions) to assume that yes, Bryant is a better hitter RIGHT NOW than Vitters is.
MylesQuote Reply
I’d actually be OK with Bryant starting at the MLB level next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/guessing-at-the-possible-posting-fee-changes-between-mlb-and-npb.html
dmick89Quote Reply