Tag: alfredo amezaga

2013 Cubs Projections: Ian Stewart and Luis Valbuena

<strong><a target=Our 2013 Cubs Projections series continues with a look at 3rd base. The starting job is Ian Stewart's according to Dale Sveum, which leaves Luis Valbuena as a back-up, but even that job may be in question. It's hard to see both Valbuena and Brent Lillibridge making the roster.

I wrote a little bit about Ian Stewart a couple weeks ago when wrote about the four most likely to exceed expectations. Instead of rewriting what I already did, I'll just quote what I wrote then.

In 2003, Ian Stewart was picked in the 1st round by the Rockies (10th overall). After posting a .959 OPS in rookie league at the age of 18, Baseball America ranked him the top Rockies prospect, as well as ranking him 57th best in baseball.

The future only looked brighter for Stewart after the 2004 season in which he hit .319/.398/.594 in A ball at the age of 19. Baseball America rewarded him by ranking him the 4th best prospect in baseball. Only Joe Mauer, Felix Hernandez and Delmon Young were ranked higher in 2005.

Colorado hasn't had a hitter like Stewart in its system since Helton. Stewart punishes good fastballs and has the strength and hand speed to wait back and drive offspeed stuff. He has good plate coverage and learned to use the whole field during the season. He adjusted when SAL pitchers began throwing him junk, and did damage at both Asheville's cozy McCormick Field (.621 slugging percentage) and on the road (.568). Stewart has average speed, and he's a savvy and aggressive baserunner. While he fell short of his goal of a 30-30 season, he did steal 19 bases in 28 attempts. Defensively, he has an above-average arm. Along with his tools, Stewart has strong desire. He wants to be an all-star and a Gold Glove third baseman, and he's willing to do what it takes to get there. The Rockies rave about his work ethic and focus on team goals.

Stewart remained in Baseball America's top 50 propects each each year through 2008. He never fell off the map by performing poorly, but his OPS's the next three years in the low to mid .800s forced us to drop the high expectations earlier in his career.

His first three years a the big league level he had respectable wOBA's. The wRC+ was better than league average in his rookie season, but slightly below the following two years. He then hurt his wrist in 2011 and was horrible in nearly 150 plate appearances. He wasn't too good for the Cubs last season either.

He's now had surgery to fix the wrist and is reportedly healthy. We could easily see Stewart return to the .330-.340ish wOBA we saw before the injury. There's also the possibility of him even being better than that. He's always had tremendous talent and is an example of a highly ranked prospect who simply did not work out. Maybe the Cubs could get lucky.

Ian Stewart PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO avg obp slg wOBA
CAIRO 339 65 13 2 11 34 87 .216 .302 .384 .304
ZiPS 328 61 11 2 11 33 96 .210 .296 .376 .286
Average 333 63 12 2 11 34 91 .213 .299 .380 .295

CAIRO seems to think that he might be somewhat useful while ZiPS has him projected only slightly better than Alfredo Amezaga. He's projected to be average to slightly below average on defense and just slightly below average on the bases.

Here are his percentile forecasts.

Ian Stewart
% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
80% 407 361 61 88 20 4 17 54 6 1 48 93 4 6 .243 .347 .463 .357
65% 373 331 52 76 16 3 14 46 4 1 41 91 5 4 .229 .324 .423 .330
Baseline 339 301 44 65 13 2 11 39 3 2 34 87 6 3 .216 .301 .382 .302
35% 305 271 37 55 10 1 8 32 2 2 28 82 7 2 .203 .278 .341 .275
20% 271 241 30 46 8 0 6 26 1 3 23 77 7 1 .189 .255 .301 .248

I had said that it's fairly easy to see him having a wOBA in the .330 range and that would be hist 65th percentile. I would not expect it. I'm thinking something around .300, but who knows how it ends up?

I don't want to spend too much time on Luis Valbuena's 2013 Cubs projections because he may not even make the team. I did find it interesting that both CAIRO and ZiPS project Valbuena to be the better player.

Luis Valbuena PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO avg obp slg wOBA
ZiPS 548 121 27 2 11 51 116 .247 .319 .378 .305
CAIRO 467 102 24 1 10 46 97 .245 .324 .381 .314
Average 508 112 25 2 11 48 107 .246 .321 .379 .310

To be fair, both PECOTA and Steamer project Ian Stewart to be better. I'd guess the average of their pojections if we included as many as possible would be about equal to one another. It would probably favor Stewart a bit, but not by much. Here are Valbuena's percentile forecasts.

Luis Valbuena
% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
80% 560 502 71 135 35 2 16 80 7 2 63 105 7 6 .268 .363 .441 .358
65% 514 460 61 118 29 2 13 69 6 2 54 101 8 4 .256 .343 .410 .336
Baseline 467 418 52 102 24 1 10 59 4 3 46 97 9 3 .244 .323 .378 .314
35% 420 376 44 87 19 0 8 50 3 3 38 92 9 2 .232 .303 .346 .291
20% 374 334 36 74 15 0 5 41 2 4 31 85 10 1 .220 .283 .315 .269

It's kind of too bad that both of these guys hit right-handed. They'd probably make a pretty good platoon if one of them hit left-handed

Other 2013 Cubs projections

Other transformed Cubs

With Jeff Samardzija's "transformation" I thought it would be fun to find other Cubs player who have transformed this spring.

Joe Mather: With a .412/.455/.745 batting line through today, he's established himself as a completely different ballplayer. We know this because he's had 55 plate appearances and that's absolutely enough to know whether or not a transformation has taken place. Some of you are saying right now that he has a career .228/.283/.384 line so we should be cautious. Fuck. That. Now is a time to be optimistic about this young stud the Cubs have for the middle of the order for years to come.

Blake DeWitt: .289/.373/.422. With 51 plate appearance we can safely say there is a 100% chance that DeWitt is now an on-base machine. The type of hitter that the more intelligent teams put atop their batting order so the big guys like Mather can knock them in. Forget about DeWitt's .329 career OBP. That's in the past. New player.

Darwin Barney: He's slugged .639 and has an OPS over 1.000 and while the sample isn't quite as reliable as 50 PA, he's still come to the plate a whopping 40 times. We can see the top of the order taking shape for the Cubs of the future. DeWitt and his on-base skills leading off with Joe Mater and Darwin Barney hitting in the middle of the order. It's gonna be rough on pitchers with all these transformations going on.

Alfredo Amezaga: best Cubs number 2 hitter since Ryne Sandberg. That's what we'll remember Amezaga for. In 40 spring PA he's batted .306/.375/.361. He's young so he should slug more in about 5 or 7 more years. Still, that .375 OBP will fit nicely in the 2-hole and can leadoff when DeWitt is getting the day off.

Rodrigo Lopez: No pitcher in Cubs camp who started more than 1 game held hitters to a lower batting average than Lopez's .213. Among all pitchers who started a game only Randy Wells help opponents to a lower batting average, but he started only 1 game. Paul Mahol, Chris Volstad and Randy Wells were the only 3 who started a game who had a lower ERA than Lopez. We know this is for real because he's thrown 16+ innings.

Transformations don't always work in a way that leads to better production. Take Starlin Castro for example. He's transformed himself into a batter with a .283 OBP. That's in 60 plate appearances so you definitely don't need more information than that. Safe to say, Starlin Castro is the new Alfonso Soriano with less power.

David DeJesus. The following players have a higher slugging percentage than DeJesus's OPS: there's too many to list. Seriously. DeJesus has a sub .600 OPS in a league that has an average OPS of 27.000.

Matt Garza: he allowed 27 baserunners in 16 innings of work. I'd say he's probably going to struggle to remain in the rotation, but then I thought about the rest of the rotation.

There have been other transformations, but none worth commenting on.