Tag: arismendy alcantara

Cubs trade Arismendy Alcantara for Chris Coghlan

The Cubs have traded for Chris Coghlan again. They traded Arismendy Alcantara to the A's for Coghlan and according to Patrick Mooney, Tommy La Stella is expected to hit the DL with a hamstring issue. 

Coghlan has been terrible this season. In 51 games and 172 plate appearances, he's hit just .146/.215/.272 with a wOBA of .215 and wRC+ of a ridiculously low 31. Thanks to some bad defense and shitty offense, he's been worth an absurd -1.7 fWAR. His walks are way down, his strikeouts are way up, his defense is much worse. I didn't have high expectations for Alcantara, but in all honesty, I'd have preferred the Cubs just call him up if they're sending La Stella to the DL. This DL shit is getting old. I guess the Cubs are hoping he finds himself when he gets back to Chicago. I suppose if there is a roster spot available for Clayton Richard, there's one for someone who might be even worse. Crazy. 

Cubs Minor League Recap (6.4.16)

Iowa Cubs 7, Oklahoma City Dodgers 5

The rainout on Wednesday didn't slow Willson Contreras down. He went 1-4 with a walk and hit his 9th home run of the season. He drove in 3 runs and scored 2. Dan Vogelbach and Albert Almora didn't miss a beat either. Vogelbach was 2-4 with a double and Almora was 2-3 with a sac bunt. I'm not sure why Almora is sacrificing when he's hitting this well, but I do imagine it will be something he'll be called upon to do at the MLB level more regularly than he has in the minors. At least initially. Arismendy Alcantara also had a good night at the plate. He was 2-4 with a double, walk, RBI and run scored. He struckout once. 

Rob Zastryzny threw 5.1 innings, allowed 7 hits and 3 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 5. Zastryzny doesn't have a spot in the Cubs rotation anytime soon and he's a back of the rotation type starter anyway. I think his future with this organization is probably going to be in the bullpen and perhaps sooner than the Cubs would like. They could use a LOOGY at the MLB level and I wouldn't be opposed to seeing what Zastryzny could do in that role. His velocity would more than likely tick up a couple miles per hour and he'd always have the first time through the order advantage that relievers have. Travis Wood has turned a similar move to the bullpen into a fairly decent career and I think we'll eventually see the same thing here. 

Giovanny Soto blew the save and then Dallas Beeler threw 2 innings, allowed a hit and a run and picked up the win. Jean Machi got the save.

Until Contreras gets called up to MLB, I'm just going to say this each time at the end of the recap: Willson Contreras has nothing left to prove in the minors. I hate the idea of having 3 catchers on the roster, but in this case, I think it would be worth it. 

Jackson Generals 2 @ Tennessee Smokies 1

Cael Brockmeyer was 2-3 with a double and a strikeout. Stephen Bruno was 1-2 with a walk. Jacob Hannemann and Mark Zagunis were each 1-4 with a double. Hannemann struckout twice while Zagunis struckout only once. Billy McKinney was also 1-4 and that's all the hitting the Smokies did. Jeimer Candelario was 0-4 again and this time he struckout 3 times. 

Mark Zagunis is off to a great start at Tennessee. Prior to this game, he was hitting .311/.421/.457 with a wOBA of .411 and wRC+ of 157. His walk rate is 14.9% and his strikeout rate is 16.9%. These numbers are very similar to what he did last year at Daytona (.271/.406/.412/, .387, 146). 

Zagunis is a corner outfielder without a lot of power. He was drafted in 2014 in the 3rd round (78th overall pick). He was drafted as a catcher, but couldn't throw any base-stealers out so he was moved to the outfield. He's been an extremely patient hitter who doesn't strikeout a whole lot. He doesn't have tremendous power. He hit 8 home runs last year for Myrtle Beach. He could be a 10-15 home run guy in his prime with lots of walks and not that many strikeouts. 

He's not a top prospect or anything, but he's a good prospect and one worth watching in my opinion. He's 23 years old so it would be nice if he was moved to Iowa so we could get a better idea of his real talent level. 

Myrtle Beach Pelicans 10, Salem Red Sox 11

The Pelicans blew an 8-2 lead entering the bottom of the 5th. The Red Sox scored 5 in that half of the inning. The Pelicans added 2 in the 6th and the Red Sox scored a single run in the 6th and then 3 in the 7th. There were 30 hits in this one so the fans in attendance had some fun.

Gleyber Torres  breaks out of his season-long slump. He was 3-4 with 3 doubles and a walk. More of that, please. Jason Vosler was 3-5 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI. Even Gioskar Amaya got in on the hitting. He was 3-5 with a double, triple and 3 RBI. Someone Shawon Dunston Jr. didn't ge the memo that he was supposed to rack up some hits in this one. He was 0-5 with a couple of strikeouts. 

The pitching sucked in this one. They gave up 11 runs on 17 hits. Jonathan Martinez pitched 4.2 innings, allowed 8 hits and 7 runs. He walked 3 and struckout 2. Daury Torrez pitched 2 innings, allowed 8 hits and run runs. Jordan Minch wasn't scored upon. He threw 1.1 innings, allowed a hit and a walk. The Pelicans pitchers walked 5 in this one while striking out only 2. 

West Michigan Whitecaps 2, South Bend Cubs 1

The Cubs only had 6 hits in this game. They also took 3 walks and only struckout twice. P.J. Higgins was 1-3 with a walk. Donnie Dewees scored the team's only run after he doubled and Ian Rice (1-3, walk, RBI) drove him in. Eloy Jimenez had a rare night in which he didn't contribute. He was 0-4 and made an error in the field. 

Preston Morrison had a solid start. He threw 6 innings, allowed 4 hits and a run (unearned). He walked no one and struckout 4. Kyle Miller allowed the other run in 2 innings of work. He gave up 3 hits, a walk and struckout 2. 

Morrison is 22 years old. He'll turn 23 in July. He's a 6-2, 185 pound right handed starter. He was drafted in the 8th round of last year's draft (233rd overall). He appeared in only 9 games last season and threw 22.1 innings. He struckout over 12 batters per 9 and walked only 1.2. It wsa a very small sample though. So far this year in 50.1 innings he's walked 2.86 batters per 9 and struckout 7.5. He had struckout over 8.2 per 9 prior to the start last night. 

Morrison was a 4-year player for TCU and had great numbers, but his velocity is, let's just say, not an important part of his game. Kyle Hendricks has outstanding velocity when compared to Morrison. He sat in the 84-85 mph range at TCU and has tried to add some muscle since being drafted. Word is the velocity has went up a couple miles per hour. He throws from a three quarters delivery and had pinpoint control in college. If he can get that velocity up even a little bit more it's entirely possible we see numbers fairly similar to what Kyle Hendricks did in the minor leagues. 

Cubs Minor League Update (6.2.16)

Iowa Cubs 5 @ Oklahoma City Dodgers 4

With the win last night, the I-Cubs sit a game below .500. Maybe that's why Willson Contreras is still on their roster. I agree with Myles. It's time to question whether or not the Cubs are really fielding their best 25-man roster. That's a pretty cool thing to be questioning when you've got the best record in baseball and the best record the organization has had since 1907. 

Contreras did Contreras things. He was 2-3 with a double and a couple runs batted in. Dan Vogelbach was 2-4 with a double, triple and two runs scored. What these two teammates are doing to PCL pitching is impressive. I'm not sure either have much left to prove in the minor leagues. A stronger case can be made that Vogelbach does, but he's also got nowhere to play on the Chicago Cubs. Contreras does. 

Albert Almora is not to be ignored. He was 1-3 with 2 RBI. Arismendy Alcantara and Logan Watkins each added a hit for good measure. Alcantara's was a triple. 

Jackson Generals 4 @ Tennessee Smokies 3

The Smokies fell to 23-39 in this rain-shortened game. They only completed the mandatory 5 innings. The Smokies had 9 hits in these 5 innings, but only 1 of them was an extra base hit. Mark Zagunis was 3-3 with a HR and he drove in all 3 runs. Chesny Young was 2-3 and Billy McKinney was 1-2. 

Duane Underwood has not gotten off to a great start this year. Prior to the start last night, Underwood has struckout 6.2 batters per 9 and walked 4.9. He'd given up quite a few home runs and his ERA was 5.19 while his FIP was 5.69. Both of those are going up after this start.

Underwood threw all 5 innings, so he technically had a complete game. He allowed 7 hits and 4 runs on 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. That's about the best strikeout rate he's had, but he also allowed a home run. He doesn't turn 22 until the end of July so he's very young and hopefully there's still considerable room for improvement. The scouts have liked him despite subpar strikeout and walk rates. To be fair, his walk rate last season in High A was decent (2.95). 

Myrtle Beach Pelicans 6, Salem Red Sox 3

Rashad Crawford led off and was 4-5 with a triple and a strikeout. He drove in 2 and scored 2. Gleyber Torres was 1-4 and so was Ian Happ. Happ also took a walk. Yasiel Balaguert doubled in a run and scored a run. He was 1-5. Jason Vosler also drove in a run and scored a run. He was 1-4. Gioskar Amaya got on base 3 times. He was 1-2 with a couple of walks. 

Erick Leal got the win and improved to 7-2. he threw 5 innings, allowed 3 hits and a run. He walked 1 and struckout 1. The run was unearned. 

Leal is just 21 years old and back in 2013 rookie league, he struckout 9.6 batters per 9 and struckout walked 1.5 per 9. It was only 48.2 innings, but the year before with the rookie league in the Diamondbacks organization he threw 73 innings, struckout 8.8 and walked 1.5. This liked like a promising pitching prospect. Then in 2014 short-season A ball that strikeout rate fell to 4.5 and walk rate increased to 2.6. Last year at South Bend the strikeout rate improved to 6.0 and walk rate also improved to 2.2, but so far this year the strikeout rate is just under 5 and walk rate just over 2. Like Underwood, he's young so hopefully he'll improve. I'm a little tired of saying that though. 

Tommy Thorpe threw 3 very good relief innings. He allowed 2 hits, no runs, walked nobody and struckout 3.

South Bend Cubs 2, Fort Wayne TinCaps 6

There were a lot of 0-fers in the the South Bend lineup. P.J. Higgins was 2-4 with a strikeout. Donnie Dewees was also 2-4. He tripled. Eloy Jimenez doubled and was 1-4. Dewees and Jimenez scored the only runs. Ian Rice had the only official RBI. He was 1-4. That's it. Everyone else went hitless. It's difficult to score a lot of runs without home runs and without several players up and down the lineup contributing.

Adbert Alzolay got the loss and dropped to 4-2 on the season. He lasted only 4 innings, allowed 5 hits and 5 runs. He walked 4 and struckout 3. Pedro Araujo threw 3 hitless innings. he walked 1 and struckout 5. 

Cubs Minor League Update (5.30.16)

Albuquerque Isotopes 4, Iowa Cubs 6

Willson Contreras and Albert Almora got the day off, but the Iowa Cubs came back late anyway. John Andreoli led off and went 2-4 with a run scored and 2 strikeouts. Matt Murton was 3-4 with an RBI and 2 runs scored. Arismendy Alcantara was 1-3 with an RBI and strikeout. 

Rob Zastryzny threw 5 innings, allowed 6 hits, 3 runs, a walk and a home run while striking out 4. Brandon Gomes threw 2 innings, struckout 3 and walked a batter. Gerardo Concepcion got the win. He pitched 2 innings, gave up 2 hits and a run while striking out 2. 

Tennessee Smokies 5, Chattanooga Lookouts 1

Jacob Hanneman was 2-5 with a run scored. Mark Zagunis was 3-4 with 2 RBI, a walk and a run scored. Bijan Radenmacher was just 1-4, but he added a walk and a home run. Cael Brockmeyer was also 1-4 with a home run. Jeimer Candelario was 2-5.

Brad Markey threw 6 innings, allowed only 2 hits, walked 3, surrendered 1 run and struckout 1. Markey is off to a 5-1 start with a 2.52 ERA, but slow down. He's 24 years old, his strikeout rate is 4.2 per 9 and he's walked 3.5 per 9. He's had really good control in his career (it was under 1 last year at High A in 55 innings). His strikeout rates have been a bit higher, but nothing spectacular. Due to his weak strikeout and walk rates, and the fact that he's allowed 8 home runs already, his FIP is 5.57. 

Juan Paniagua walked 2 and struckout 3 in his scoreless inning. 

Wilmington Blue Rocks 3, Myrtle Beach Pelicans 1 (Game 1, 10 innings)

The Pelicans only had 5 hits and a run so this will be easy. Jeffry Baez was 2-4 and the following players each had hits: Rashad Crawford (1-5, 2K), Gleyber Torres (1-4, K) and Ian Happ (1-4, BB, R, 2K). 

Zach Hedges threw innings, allowed only a hit and an unearned run. He walked 1 and struckout 3. James Farris threw 3 innings, allowed 4 hits, 2 runs, walked a batter and struckout a batter. 

Wilmington Blue Rocks 8, Myrtle Beach Pelicans 4 (Game 2)

Gleyber Torres was 1-4 with a strikeout and Ian Happ was 2-3 with a walk. 

Happ doesn't turn 22 until August 12th and the switch hitter is off to a good start in his career. He was the Cubs first round pick a year ago (9th overall). In 49 games so far this year, he's hitting .287/.403/.448 with a .394 wOBA and 146 wRC+. He's walked in 16.1% of his plate appearances and struckout in 25.1% of them. He's hit 5 home runs, has 6 stolen bases and his ISO is .161. I expect he'll hit for some more power as the season and his career moves along. That walk rate is fantastic.

Jonathan Martinez threw 5 innings, allowed 8 hits and 5 runs on 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. Tommy Thorpe pitched 2 innings, gave up 2 hits and 3 runs. He walked 2, struckout no one and gave up a home run. 

Lansing Lugnuts 0, South Bend Cubs 1

This one was scoreless until Eloy Jimenez hit a walk off home run in the 9th. The only players with hits were Andrew Ely (1-3, BB), Daniel Spingola (1-4, K), and Eloy Jimenez (1-4, HR). 

Carson Sands threw 6 innings, allowed just 2 hits, walked 4 and struckout 5. Craig Brooks (2 IP) and Scott Effross (1 IP) finished the game and combined with Sands for a 3-hit shutout. 

Cubs Minor League Update (5.25.16)

El Paso Chihuahuas 3, Iowa Cubs 8

Willson Contreras hit his 5th home run of the season and his second in as many days. He was 1-4 on the night with a walk, a couple of runs scored, an RBI and two strikeouts. Albert Almora was 2-4 with his 10th double of the season. He also scored a run. Dan Vogelbach was 1-2 with 2 walks. Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a strikeout and Kristopher Negron was 2-4.

Rob Zastryzny threw 7 inning, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. He walked 3 and struckout 5. That was Zastryzny’s first AAA start. In AA he threw 54.2 innings, struckout just under 7 per 9 and walked about 3.3. His ERA was 4.28 and his FIP was 4.39. Zastryzny struggled last season when he was promoted to AA and while he wasn’t lights out this season, he had improved enough . He had thrown a combined 115.1 innings in AA. The biggest difference this time around was his ability to stick around games. He threw 60.2 innings last year in 14 starts and 54.2 this year in just 9 starts.

Several years ago the Cubs new front office gave out a contract to a Cuban pitcher who simply put was not all that great in Cuba. They gave him a decent amount of money and an MLB roster spot. A year or two later he was removed from the roster because he sucked, but Gerardo Concepcion doesn’t think he’s done yet. He’s been outstanding this year in relief. Keep in mind we’re talking small samples, but everything about his numbers is better. He threw another clean inning last night with a strikeout

Back in 2012 after the Cubs signed him, he was striking out under 5 batters per 9 innings. And he was walking well over 5 per 9. Ignoring the walks entirely, which were a huge problem, the strikeout rate like that was never going to be good enough to even get through the minor leagues. It wasn’t. He hung around the lower levels and even rookie league and then all of a sudden in 2014 at A ball he struckout 8.2 per 9. He walked 3.2 per 9. It was only 41.2 innings though. At A+ after the promotion, same thing. Back at A+ last year to start the season in 12.2 innings he had an even better strikeout rate, though a walk rate that was not pretty. Promoted to Tennessee he struckout 7.1 in 31.2 innings, but walked 8.2. So again, we could forget about Concepcion. Not so fast. In 2016 back at Tennessee he struckout 8.7 per 9 and walked 2.0 per 9 in 17.2 innings. He’s thrown under 8 innings at AAA, but the strikeout rate is decent. He’s still only 24 years old. We need to see how he continues to do at AAA, but the Cubs may have a decent enough LOOGY or even 8th inning guy in the future after all. I’ll take that. I contend it was still a terrible contract. I mean, if all you’re going to get is a LOOGY or 8th inning guy 5 or 6 years down the road, what’s the point? Still, the contract is signed so hopefully this improvement is legitimate.

Myrtle Beach Pelicans 3, Carolina Muscats 2 (14 innings)

Rashad Crawford, Gioskar Amaya and cleanup hitter Yasiel Balaguer did not have a good night. They were each 0-6 with a couple strikeouts. Gleyber Torres was 2-6 with a double, run scored and two strikeouts. Ian Happ was 3-6 with a home run (5), a couple runs scored and driven in and a strikeout.

Trevor Clifton got the start and threw 5.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and no runs. He walked 3 and struckout 4. Clifton was a 12th round pick in the 2013 draft. The 6-4 righty has struckout a lot of batters this season. His K/9 is over 10 and his BB/9 is under 4. He’s also allowed only 1 home run on the season. Clifton is still only 21 years old (just turned 21 two weeks ago) so the Cubs aren’t going to rush this guy, but here’s to hoping he can continue striking out batters at a high rate. The organization needs some starters like that.

Jordan Minch allowed 2 runs in an inning, but Daury Torrez and James Farris combined for 6.1 innings and allowed only 3 hits and a walk. They each struckout 3. Ryan McNeil picked up the save while pitching the 14th inning. He allowed a hit and struckout 2.

Great Lakes Loons 3, South Bend Cubs 8

Eloy Jimenez was 1-4 with his 7th home run of the season. He’s not long for South Bend at his current rate. Donnie Dewees was 1-4 with a strikeout. Andrew Ely led off the game and was 2-3 with a couple of doubles and a walk. Jesse Hodges was 0-3 with a walk and a run scored.

This is Hodges’s second attempt at A ball. Last year he was just OK. He walked in 8.2% of his PA and struckout in 25.3% of them. He hit .238/.316/.363 with a .320 wOBA and 99 wRC+. Only 84 PA so far, the 22 year old has walked in 13.1% of his PA and cut his strikeouts down to 17.9%. His ISO has been cut in half in doing so, but his overall line doesn’t care. He’s hit .329/.417/.397 with a .392 wOBA and 150 wRC+. His BABIP is .414 so much of his current performance is driven by luck, but some of it seems genuine.

Justin Stelle started for the Cubs and threw 5.2 innings. He allowed 4 hits and 5 walks. He gave up 3 runs and a home run and struckout only 1. Steele was a 5th round pick by the Cubs in 2014 and signed for $1 million. He’s only 20 right now, though he turns 21 on July 11th. The 6-1 lefty had a very good season last year in short-season ball and a good debut (only 18.2 innings) in 2014 in rookie league. He’s struckout a ton of batters so far this year, but has walked a ton too. His ERA is 6.49, but his FIP is 3.52.

Cubs Minor League Update (5.24.16)

El Paso Chihuahuas 6, Iowa Cubs 1

The I-Cubs had 9 hits and only a run. The run was the result of a Willson Contreras home run, his fourth. Contreras was 1-3 with that home run and also a walk and 2 strikeouts. The only other notable offensive performance was Arismendy Alcantara who was 2-3 with a couple of singles.

There’s been a lot of complaining about why Tim Federowicz is still on the Cubs roster and why Neil Ramirez was DFA’d. I’d a curious move even if one things Contreras isn’t ready for MLB. The only thing I might offer is that it’s unlikely Contreras would play much at the MLB level so giving him regular playing time is more important. That still doesn’t explain why they’d prefer to lose a potentially valuable reliever just to keep a third catcher on the roster. Unless the Cubs are worried about Miguel Montero‘s health. That’s really the only explanation that makes sense there.

Arismendy Alcantara made the big league team in 2015 out of spring training, but wasn’t around for long. He was pretty terrible and was sent down. He was then terrible at Iowa all season long and while he’s been better this season, he still hasn’t been very good. He’s hitting only .241/.307/.423 with a .326 wOBA and 95 wRC+.

Stephen Fife got the start and threw 4 innings and allowed 2 hits and no runs. He walked none and struckout 5. C.J. Edwards Jr. pitched the 9th and walked a batter while striking out the side.

Edwards has been pretty good so far. Not including last night, he’s thrown 15.1 innings, and struckout nearly 13 batters per 9. He’s also walked almost 5 (4.7). His ERA is 2.35 and his FIP is 2.41. He can strike a lot of batters out, but he’s going to give up a lot of free passes.

Biloxi Shuckers 2, Tennessee Smokies 3

Chesny Young keeps hitting. He was 3-6 with a double. If Alcantara continues to struggle, it won’t be long before Young replaces him in Iowa. It may not be long no matter what.

Jeimer Candelario was 3-6 with an RBI and Billy McKinney was 2-6 with an RBI and strikeout. Carlos Penalver was 3-5 with a couple of strikeouts.

Penalver is a 22 year old shortstop who hasn’t done much with the bat this year or in the past. So far this season he’s hitting .221/.290/.307 with a .282 wOBA and 72 wRC+. He had a 61 wRC+ last season in High A and a 55 wRC+ the season before that in A ball. He’s had only two decent stops along the way. The first was the very first action he saw as a professional in rookie league back in 2011. He hit .272/.364/.341 with a wOBA of .358 and a 112 wRC+. In 2013 he he hit .261/.338/.359 (.338 wOBA, 108 wRC+).

Brad Markey threw 6 innings, allowed 5 hits, 2 walks and 2 runs. He struckout 4 and allowed 1 home run. Starling Peralta threw 3 innings of shutout ball and struckout 2.

A few years ago a lot of prospects liked what they saw out of then starting pitcher Starling Peralta. Even in rookie league in 2010 Peralta showed good command. He walked fewer than 3 per 9 (2.77) and struckout 8.54 per 9. In short-season rookie league he followed that up with 2.25 BB/9 and 9.64 K/9. That was a combined 15 starts for an 18 year old. Then in 2011 in A ball his strikeout rate dropped considerably and by 2013 he was in the bullpen. He didn’t take to it right away and still doesn’t strike many batters out. Last season in 54.1 innings, he somehow managed to find a way to strikeout only 4.31 batters per 9. It really doesn’t matter how many batters he walked. That’s not good enough. This year so far it’s 6.23 so there’s that.

Lynchburg Hillcats 1, Myrtle Beach Pelicans 3

Rashad Crawford went 2-4 with a home run and a triple. He drove in 2 and struckout once. Ian Happ was 1-3 with two strikeouts. The Pelicans had only two other hits. Cael Brockmeyer and Shawon Dunston Jr. were both 1-3 with a double.

Crawford was picked in the 11th round (344 overall) of the 2012 draft. He’s currently 22 years old and plays CF. He was a well below average hitter prior to 2015. He had a wRC+ of 58, 70 and 87 in 2012, 2013 and 2014. At South Bend in 2015 he started to put up some respectable numbers. He hit .280/.322/.382 with a wOBA of .328 and wRC+ of 105. He walked in only 5.1% of his plate appearances, but had shown the ability to walk earlier in his career. His strikeout rate was rather high at 23%. This year he’s hitting .259/.370/.417 with a wOBA of .369 and wRC+ of 127. He’s walked in 14% of his PA and struckout in 21.7%. His ISO is up to .157. It remains to be seen if he can maintain that level of patience, but if he can, he could be a solid addition to an already deep pool of talent in CF.

Zach Hodges threw 7 innings, allowed 5 hits and a run. He walked 1, struckout 3 and allowed a home run. Hedges was a 26th round pick in 2014 and is 23 years old. He had a brief, but impressive debut season in 2014 in rookie league. In 19.2 innings he struckout nearly 30% of the batters he faced and walked only 2.5% of them. In 23 starts last year and 132 innings, his strikeout rate wasn’t even half of that 28.4%. It was only 14.1% or 5.45 per 9. This year for the Pelicans he’s thrown 39.2 innings and struckout 6.81 per 9 and walked 2.5. His ERA is 2.95 and his FIP is 3.30.

South Bend Cubs 6, Lake County Captains 3

Eloy Jimenez had a fantastic game again. He was 3-4 with a double and a walk. If you care about such things, he also drove in a run. Andrew Ely led off for the Cubs and played 2nd base. He was 2-4 with a double and a walk. P.J. Higgins was 2-3 with a double and two walks.

I talked about two of these players yesterday so I’ll write a bit about Ely today. Ely was drafted in the 32nd round of the 2014 draft. He’s already 23 years old so that’s a little old for the league he’s in. He began the year at South Bend and in 42 games (162 PA), he struggled a lot. He hit only .196/.235/.294 with a wOBA of what the fuck and a wRC+ of are you kidding me? He was sent back down to short season A level when their season began and he hit really well. He had a 134 wRC+, but at 22 years old then it’s tough to take those numbers too seriously. Back at South Bend he’s doing very well this year: .313/.375/.420 (.376 wOBA, 140 wRC+).

Carson Sands got his 5th win of the season against no losses. He threw 7 innings, allowed 5 hits and 3 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 3. Sands was a 4th round pick in 2014 (109th overall) and signed for $1.1 million. The Cubs spent way over slot on this one. Unfortunately, he’s another one of the Cubs starting pitchers who just can’t strike anybody out. After his initial 19 inning debut in which he struckout over a batter per inning, he’s really struggled with striking batters out. It was 6.44 per 9 last year in 57.1 innings and this season at South Bend it’s 5.04 per 9 against a 3.86 walk rate. His ERA and FIP have been good, but that kind of strikeout rate just isn’t going to work as a starting pitcher at the MLB level. He’s young enough that we can still see some improvement here, but we need to see a lot of improvement.

I think the type of amateur hitter the front office has targeted has been really good, but I’m not so sure about the pitchers. I know they’ve spent more heavily on the position player side so we shouldn’t expect to see a balance there, but the Cubs just don’t have any top of the rotation candidates in my opinion. That’s troubling.

The Struggle

Baez debuted at A in May 28, 2012. In his first month, he “struggled,” hitting .298/.330/.500. Sure, his career line at A was .333/.383/.596, but you have to stretch pretty hard to get struggling out of that. His strikeout rate was 21.7% and his walk rate was 6.6%. He was eventually promoted to A+, and he absolutely struggled when promoted. His first half-season was terrible: .188/.233/.400.

He rebounded in 2013, closing out at .275/.338/.535 (his adjustment eerily similar to his first month at A ball. Quite the stuggle, huh?), and earned a promotion to AA. In the first month after he was promoted, he “struggled,” hitting (get this) .273/.333/.612. That’s a .945 OPS (Willie Mays has a career OPS of .941, Ty Cobb is right at .945). If that’s struggling, sign me up.

Baez struggled in his promotion to AAA, there’s no doubt about that. If we tally those up, there were 2 clear bad first months, and 2 no-doubt strong performances. At every level, Baez got better as the season progressed; however, that is not the same thing as automatically struggling with every promotion. How he received this instant struggler label is absolutely beyond me.

Level BA OBP SLG OPS
A 0.298 0.330 0.500 0.830
A+ 0.188 0.233 0.400 0.633
AA 0.273 0.333 0.612 0.945
AAA 0.172 0.238 0.379 0.617

Baez is struggling at the major league level, and there’s no sugarcoating this. The line is .198/.233/.465 (comically enough, his SLG is still 77 points above the league average). He strikes out 10 times as often as he walks (44 to 4), and those numbers are: 44.4% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate. Baez has only put the ball on the field of play in 43.3% of his plate appearances; pair that with a .256 BABIP and you’ll struggle to reach the Mendoza line regardless of your home-run rate (which, by the way, is 1 every 13 or so plate appearances. Yowza.)

I’m absolutely unconcerned about any of this. First, there is no way that Baez’ true BABIP is .256. No one who hits the ball that hard will have a BABIP that low unless they are slower than Prince Fielder. Baez’ minor league BABIP is right around the .320 level – it was .322 at AAA, and I’d say you can easily pencil him in for .305 or so at the major league level. He also won’t strike out at 44.4% of his plate appearances. The 95% confidence interval given 90 plate appearances has a lower bound of 34.1% and the 99% CI is 30.9%. It’s conceivable that Baez’ is already at a 35% rate or so and that he’s just had negative luck. It’s also reasonable to assume that Baez, a 21-year-old who has never faced MLB pitching, is just having trouble adjusting to the game (an attribute he would share with 90% of all successful major-leaguers).

Baez will get 31 more games against the best pitching in the world when the games mean nothing (in fact, less than nothing. Our CBA gives us a perverse incentive to lose as many of these games as possible), and he’ll do so with a better hitting coach (we hope) than he’s ever had. Baez is swinging at too many bad pitches, and he’s not making contact with them. If that sounds familiar, that’s because it is familiar. You can copy and paste that sentence to describe most new hitters. None of those hitters have the bat speed and power potential that Javier has.

For all of Baez’ warts, his OPS (.698) is higher than the following Cubs (or former Cubs: pour one out for the fallen) who have at least 100 PA:

Welington Castillo (679)

Darwin Barney (594)

Nate Schierholtz (541)

Junior Lake (608)

Ryan Sweeney (642)

Mike Olt (575)

Arismendy Alcantara (659)

John Baker (532, but Baker has a way better ERA+)

Ryan Kalish (633)

That’s 9 players of varying repute that Baez is already doing better than. He’s not quite as good with the stick as Travis Wood (.255/.296/.471), but he’ll get there. This is the point where you might expect me to convince you that Baez is providing positive value with his glove – and that may well be true. However, playing in 21 games absolutely does not provide you with enough hard data to make a claim. It isn’t really even enough to give the eye test (and I certainly haven’t watched him play enough to make any claim on his defensive value). It would kind of be like guessing who will win a marathon after the first mile (rule of thumb: defensive data takes three years to be meaningful).

Mike Trout is the best baseball player alive right now, and he should be the best thing to happen to baseball in 20 years. The only negative is that he is so much better than he has any right to be, and became so good so quick (don’t mind that .220/.281/.390 line in 40 games as a rookie. hey, wait a minute…) that people have unrealistic expectations of their own top prospects. Javier Baez (and Arismendy Alcantara, and I wager I can edit Jorge Soler‘s name in here in a month) is not Mike Trout, and comparing one to the other is an exercise in futility. Baseball is ridiculously hard, and even the best players struggle when they first play it. Just don’t try to tell me that it’s what Baez has always done.

Cubs 6, Yankees 1

Did The Cubs Win?

OSS: Hammel outduels Tanaka, and Lou Goodvalue gives Masahiro fits.

Three Up

1. Luis Valbuena doubled twice and singled once. On the season, he’s .261/.384/.434. Last year, he was .218/.331/.378 on a .233 BABIP, so we should have seen this coming. It’s insane to me that Valbuena isn’t considered a long-term solution at 2B or 3B; he’s quietly been the 3rd most valuable position player on the team this year after being the 2nd most valuable last year. Oh, and he’s arb eligible for the first time next year.

2. Jason Hammel has been absolutely nails this year. The only blemish was failing to get out of the 6th, but the overall line (5.2 IP, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER) is a quality start in every definition of the word except the technical one.

3. Emilio Bonifacio deserves to be here, but I have to include John Baker because he had 2 hits, and that’s probably the last time that’ll happen in his career.

Three Down

1. None. Everyone was a positive this game.

Quick Hits

Don’t buy into the narrative that this was Tanaka’s first lost in 40+ games, he lost in the playoffs…Ricky used 5 (!) relievers in this game to record 10 outs (3.1 IP, 3 BB, 3 SO, 2 H, 0 R)…Rizzo is now 2nd among NL 1B in OBP (.400)…Rizzo has 32 walks and 30 strikeouts…Castro is now 3rd among NL SS in OBP (.339), despite having a 4.9% walk rate…Castro has a positive FRAA (4.6), almost half a win on defense thus far…Cubs have more runs scored than allowed…Mike Olt update: still bad…Javier Baez doubled twice and did not strike out yesterday…Arismendy Alcantara went 2-4.

Next Game
Today, 1:20 PM CT (Whitley v Samardzija)
Tickets (cubs.com ONLY):
$46, Terrace Reserved Outfield
$67, Bleachers

Will The Cubs Win?

Journeymen of Tomorrow: The Story So Far (AAA and AA)

It’s been awhile since we’ve touched on the minor leagues this season. dmick has been busy. Seeing as I held the post of “minor league wonk” fairly recently, I thought I’d give a short synopsis of each team so far.

Iowa

Arismendy Alcantara has not been so great this year. His walk rate is down precipitously, so even though he carries a .275 average, he’s the owner of a .290 OBP. The power has shown up, especially in doubles/triples power, and it isn’t like he’s lost at the plate. I’d just like to see more power.

Javier Baez has been terrible so far. .149/.232/.311. He also leads the team in errors. It’s still quite early, but he isn’t exactly forcing the issue for the brain trust at this point.

Pet prospect Logan Watkins continues to impress in a utility role. He’s batting .265/.375/.353 in part time action; the only blemish so far is the high K rate.

Vitters is staying healthy; that’s important for him. Unfortunately, he’s also batting .196. I’m the only person on this blog who is still a believer (inasmuch as I believe he can be a major league regular or 4th OF), but it’s saying something when the FO reaches into the Iowa bag of outfielders and pulls out Chris Coghlan to replace Sweeney.

Christian Villanueva has less power this year, and he’s striking out more. Villanueva’s good 2013 put him back on the prospect map, but he’s taken a large step back this season. It’s early (of course), but he’s really struggled this year.

Kyle Hendricks has been pretty unlucky this year. He’s striking out a lot more people than he used to, which is obviously a good sign. The novice would point to his K/BB remaining pretty constant (3.7 last year, 3.7 this year) and think he hasn’t improved. This is the primary reason why K/BB is such a garbage stat. People don’t really care about the ratio, they care about how many more strikeouts a player has than walks. His K%-BB% is 18.4%, a huge improvement from last year’s 13.5%. The primary problem Hendricks has faced this season is an atypically low strand rate. It’s 61% this year, and his career number is more like 77%. You would expect nibblers like Kyle to have a lower and lower strand rate as they climb the ladder, but not this low. When that rebounds, his ERA will too (and his FIP is 2.57).

Pet Prospect Tsuyoshi Wada has been insane this season. 0.64 WHIP, 0.57 ERA, 37 K in 31.1 innings. If a SP gets traded or hurt, Wada has to be the next man up. If he isn’t, there is no justice.

Eric Jokisch has given up the longball this year but little else. His 1.19 WHIP will play, as will his 6.16 innings per start. Most impressive are his 5 walks in 37 innings.

Alberto Cabrera has been dynamite for the I-Cubs this year.

Tennessee

Jorge Soler is working his way back from his latest injury. His next injury is scheduled for May 14th.

I had a twitter spat with Sahadev Sharma and Harry Pavlidis last week about Kris Bryant. I said that I wouldn’t give Bryant a pitch in the ZIP of the plate. They said I didn’t get the purpose of the minor leagues and you wouldn’t want to admit defeat in any case. I maintain that pitching smart is still a part of development; pitching to Kris Bryant isn’t smart. He’s batting .295/.417/.543. He’s striking out too much, but who gives a shit. Kris Bryant is the best hitter in the Cubs minor league system. He’s also proving the critics at 3B right, and a move to RF is probably imminent. The little I’ve seen of Tennessee this year has been Bryant just not looking comfortable at third.

I told Sahadev that if I have to choose between pitching to Bryant or pitching to Rafael Lopez, I’m pitching to Lopez every time. Of course, Lopez has a higher OPS (.977 to .960) on the season than Bryant now. Rafael is on fire, turning in the best performance of a Cubs minor-leaguer this season. .310/.456/.521 gets a lot of people to notice.

Pet Prospect Stephen Bruno is working his way back from an injury last year, but still hitting ok. .250/.370/.369, mainly at 2B.

We can hopefully exhale about C.J. Edwards. His injury does not appear to be serious (with pitchers, they aren’t serious until they suddenly are). He’s been predictably sublime this season.

Corey Black is walking everyone right now. If he pitched against Mike Olt, I wonder what would happen (Mike Olt strikes out on 4 pitches).

Ivan Pineyro has been sturdy this year, but nothing special.

Armando Rivero is in AA for no reason. He is, right now, a MLB quality reliever. He’ll embarrass the minor leagues until he’s called up.

I thought Pierce Johnson was broken when he walked 8 in one game. Since then, he quieted down and delivered a yeoman’s performance yesterday. He’s walked more than he’s fanned. That’s not so good. I wasn’t as high on Johnson as everyone else was last year, and I think he’s showing his true colors now, more-or-less. I think I’d take at least 3 pitching prospects in our org over him right now (Tseng, Edwards, Blackburn), and there’s a possibility of a few more.

Cubs Minor League Recap: 4-15-14

I’ve not done these for several days and the reason is not important.

Iowa Cubs

Matt Szczur, Arismendy Alcantara and Josh Vitters were a combined 0-12 at the top of the I-Cubs batting order. Chris Coghlan was 1-3 with a walk and Chris Valaika was 2-3 with a double. Logan Watkins and Eli Whiteside each added hits.

Carlos Pimentel got the start and that’s about all that’s worthy of saying about his performance. He gave up 7 runs in 5 innings. He also walked 5 and struck out 5. Yoanner Negrin threw 3.1 innings and allowed 5 hits and a run. Marcus Hatley pitched the final 0.2 innings and struck both batters out.

Tennessee Smokies (Postponed)

Daytona Cubs

Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-4 with an RBI and Tim Saunders had a big day going 3-4 with a couple of doubles. Nither Jeimer Candelario or Dan Vogelbach did anything to help their slow starts. Each was 0-4 and Candelario struck out 3 times. Rock Shoulders was 2-4 with a double and home run. Bijan Radenmacher and Willson Two L’s Contreras was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts.

Jose Rosario must have seen what Carlos Pimentel did and tried to one-up him. He threw 4.1 innings, allowed 7 hits and 8 runs. He only walked 2 and struck out 6. Oh, wait, that’s 6 walks and 2 strikeouts. Starling Peralta threw 2.2 innings and didn’t allow any hits and he struck out 3. Stephen Perakslis pitched the final inning and gave up 2 hits and 2 runs.

Kane County Cougars Game 1

The Cougars had only 1 run on 4 hits, but it was 1 more run than Bowling Green and 3 more hits so that’s good. Jacob Hanneman, Carlos Penalver (double), Ben Carhart and Trey Martin were the only players with hits. Yasiel Balaguert, David Bote and Will Remillard walked once each.

Paul Blackburn has recovered nicely from his terrible first start of the season. He threw 6 innings last night and allowed just one hit and he walked one. He struck out 6. On the season he’s struck out 13 and walked 3 in 15 innings.

Jose Arias got the save in the 7th inning and it was an impressive one. He struck out 4 batters.

Kane County Cougars Game 2

The Cougars won 2-0 and had only 2 hits. Ben Carhart (double) and Yasiel Balaguert were the only Cougars with hits. Jacob Hannemann, Carhart and Jacob Rogers each walked.

The team walked 3 times in the 7 inning game and had only 2 hits. You’d think they’d have struck out a lot, but they did not. They struck out only one time (Jacob Rogers).

Jen-Ho Tseng allowed 6 hits and no runs in 5.1 innings. He walked none and struck out 6. Zack Godley threw the final 1.2 innings and allowed a hit and struck out 4.