Tag: arismendy alcantara

Minor League Recap 4-10-14

Three of the Cubs four minor league games got underway this afternoon while Daytona played tonight.

Iowa Cubs

Matt Szczur was 2-4 with a strikeout and run scored. Arismendy Alcantara doubled and had 2 hits in 4 plate appearances. Javier Baez isn’t getting a lot of hits, but he hit his 2nd home run of the season and was 1-4 with a strikeout. Josh Vitters showed he can be patient and walked twice. He was also 1-2 with 2 runs scored. Chris Valaika was also 2-4 with a double.

Kyle Hendricks rebounded after his poor outing last week. He threw 7 strong innings and allowed 5 hits and a run. He walked 1 and struck out 5. Neil Ramirez also didn’t suck in his inning. He gave up a hit and struck a batter out. Blake Parker pitched the 9th and struck out 2 while allowing 1 hit.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies got beat on a 9th inning run by the Lookouts. It was the only run of the game. The Smokies had only 4 hits so this will be easy.

Zeke DeVoss was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts. Stephen Bruno was 1-3 with a double and a walk. Dustin Geiger was also 1-3 with a walk. Wes Darvill had the only other hit (1-4, strikeout).

Jake Arrieta is making his way back to the majors and got a rehab start in. He threw 3.2 innings, allowed 3 hits and no runs. He walked 2 and struck out 4. Lendy Castillo walked a batter and retired a batter. Good outing for him. Dae-Eun Rhee who was highly thought of a couple years ago threw 4.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, a walk and a run. He struck out 3. Tony Zych finished the game and allowed a hit in a third of an inning.

Daytona Cubs

The Cubs got killed. The game was over early and Dunedin went on to win 12-2. Pin-Chieh Chen was 1-4 with a strikeout. He’s off to a good start so far this year and even played some 2nd base tonight. Tim Saunders was 1-4 with an RBI and strikeout. Albert Almora and Dan Vogelbach were each 0-4 while Jeimer Candelario was 1-4. The hot hitter for the night was Bijan Randenmacher who went 3-3 with a BB and run scored. Oliver Zapata was 1-3 with a walk, RBI and run scored.

Taylor Scott had a night to forget. He threw only 3 innings and somehow gave up 11 hits and 3 walks. When you allow nearly 5 base runners per inning, you’re probably going to have a bad night. Scott gave up 8 runs and while only 4 were earned, it’s not like he can point to bad defense. Scott got lit up.

Austin Kirk threw 3.1 and gave up 3 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struck out 2. Austin Reed tried to top Taylor Scott in his 1.2 innings. He gave up 4 hits and walked 2. He allowed 2 runs and struck a batter out. The only decent pitcher on the night was a guy on injury rehab: Arodys Vizcaino. He threw an inning and walked a batter and struck one out.

Kane County Cougars

Danny Lockhart and Carlos Penalver set the table for the Cougars. Each collected 2 hits in 5 AB in the 1-2 slots in the lineup. Lockhart scored twice and struck out while Penalver doubled and scored 3 times.

Yasiel Balaguert was 1-4 with 3 RBI and a walk. Jacob Rogers and Daniel Canela were each 1-5. David Bote was 1-3 with a double, walk and a strikeout. Trey Martin was 1-3 with a run, RBI and walk

Tyler Skulina threw 5.2 innings, gave up 6 hits and 5 runs while walking 1 and striking out 6. Justin Amlung threw 2.1, allowed a hit and a walk while striking out 1 and Tyler Bremer finished the 9th and gave up 2 hits and struck a batter out.

Minor League Recap: 4-9-14

Iowa Cubs

Matt Szczur is off to a slow start with another 0-5 night and he struck out 3 times. Arismendy Alcantara was 1-3 with a  walk and Javier Baez was 2-4 with a double and a strikeout. Josh Vitters hit his 2nd home run of the season and was 1-3 with a walk and a strikeout. Brett Jackson hit a home run and went 1-4 with 2 strikeouts.

Carlos Pimentel had a great start. He threw 6 innings, allowed just 3 hits and a run (a home run). He walked 1 and struck out 10. Zac Rosscup struck out 4 in 2 innings and Marcus Hatley struck out 2 in the 9th.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies only had 7 hits and scored runs despite 4 errors by the Lookouts. They scored 3 times and that was enough to win. Stephen Bruno was 2-4 with a strikeout and Rafael Lopez also had 2 hits. He was 2-3 with a walk and a double. Rubi Silva went 1-3 with a walk and a strikeout. Kris Bryant and Dustin Geiger were each 1-4. Geiger struck out once. Bryant had a fielding error.

C.J. Edwards got the start and threw 5.2 innings of one run ball. He did allow 9 base runners through. He walked 4 and gave up 5 hits. P.J. Francescon got the win in 1.1 innings of no-hit, no-run ball. He struck out 2. Jeff Lorick got the all important hold in .2 innings and Aramando Rivera picked up the save with a clean 1.1 innings. He struck out 3.

Daytona Cubs (game 1)

It was apparently a beautiful day for two in Daytona. For those who can’t remember, minor league double-headers are 7 innings.

The offense did next to nothing. Pin-Chieh Chen was 1-3 and continued his hot start. He did strikeout. Albert Almora is also off to a hot start and went 2-3 with 2 doubles. The only other hit went to the number 9 batter Marco Hernandez who was 1-3.

Felix Pena took a loss though it was no fault of his own. He threw 6 great inning, walking no one and allowing just 5 hits and a run. He struck out 5. Michael Jensen gave up 2 hits and struck a batter out in an inning of work

Daytona Cubs (game 2)

The Cubs only had 5 hits, but they scored 4 runs. Pin-Chieh Chen was 1-2 with a double and a walk. Albert Almora, Dan Vogelbach, Jeimer Candelario and Marco Hernandez were each 1-3. Vogelbach’s hit was a home run.

Gioskar Amaya, Marco Hernandez (2) and Jeimer Candelario each had errors.

Jose Rosario allowed 3 hits and 2 runs in 5 innings while walking 3 and striking out 4.

Starlin Peralta shit the bed in a third of an inning. He gave up a bunch of hits, too many runs and struck a batter out. Andrew McKirahan threw 1.2 innings and gave up 2 hits and struck out 3.

Kane County Cougars

Only the 9th hitter, Carlos Penalver, did not get a base hit in this game, but they all had one each. So I’ll name a few I haven’t mentioned yet, or don’t think I have anyway. Jacob Rogers was 1-4 with a home run. David Bot was 1-2 with a double. Jordan Hankins was 1-4.

Paul Blackburn allowed 2 hits and walked 2 over 5 innings. He gave up a home run and 2 runs overall while striking out 4. James Pugliese threw 2.1 innings, allowed 2 hits and gave up a run. He struck out 2 and walked 2. Nathan Dorris threw .2 innings and did nothing remarkable. Jose Arias blew the save, his second already this season, but he had no help from his defense. He gave up 3 hits in 2 innings and allowed 4 runs, only one of which was earned.

Minor League Recap 4-5-14

Iowa Cubs

It was a long night for the Iowa Cubs as they were beaten 11-1. Matt Szczur was 1-3 with a walk, run scored and a strikeout. Arismendy Alcantara was also 1-3 with a double. He also had an error. Javier Baez was 0-2 with 2 strikeouts and was thrown out of the game arguing the check swing strikeout. Ridiculously small sample, but he’s 0-9 with 6 strikeouts. Baez has been known to start off slow and look horrible before dominating.

Josh Vitters was 1-4 with a double and strikeout. Christian Villanueva was 1-3 with a couple strikeouts and Chris Coghlan was 2-4 with a double. The Iowa Cubs struck out 13 times and walked only once.

Kyle Hendricks got lit up in his season debut. He threw 4.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 6 runs. He walked 2 and struck out 5. Neil Ramirez threw an inning of relief and was not good (2 hits, 2 walks, 4 runs). Marcus Hatley threw 2 scoreless innings and struck out 4 while walking 1.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies had as many errors as hits. Two. Rubi Silva was 1-3 and Charles Cutler was 1-2 with the one of the two walks. Kris Bryant had the other walk and was 0-2 with a strikeout.

Jake Arrieta threw 3 scoreless, hittless innings. He did walk a batter, which came home to score and he struck out 3. Lendy Castillo did Lendy Castillo things. Corey Black thought that looked fun decided he could also do them.

Daytona Cubs

The Daytona Cubs had a fun game last night. They scored 13 runs and had 21 hits while allowing only 2 runs on 3 hits.

To put that into perspective, that’s 62.5% more runs than the Chicago Cubs have scored in their 5 games combined. It would have been 6025% more fun than the Cubs have been at any point in 2014. Since there are so many to cover, let’s do it this way.

Taylor Scott threw 7 innings and allowed only 2 hits. He walked 1 and struck out 2.

Kane County Cougars

Game 1

The Cougars picked up their postponed game and won 5-4 in 10 innings. Jake Hannemann went 2-5 with a HR and he stole 2 bases. Jacob Rogers also went 2-5.

Danny Lockart, Yasiel Balaguert, Daniel Canela (a home run), Shawon Dunston jr and Will Remillard each added hits.

Daury Torrez threw 5 innings of 5 hit, 1 run ball. He walked 3 and struck out 4. Gerardo Concepcion just wishes he could be as good as Lendy Castillo. Seriously, why is this guy even taking up a roster spot at this point? Both of them for that matter, but especially Concepcion. Jose Arias blew the save in 1.1 innings, though I’m fairly certain he came in with a whole shitload of Concepcion’s runners still on base. Thanks a lot.

Justin Amlung threw 3 scoreless innings, walked 2 and struck out 2. He got the win.

Game 2

The Cougars had only 2 hits in this one. Too bad Concepcion wasn’t pitching for the other team. They’d have had 318 hits. Ben Carhart was 1-3 with a double and Jacob Rogers was 1-3 with an RBI.

Tyler Skulina threw 6 innings of 2 hit ball. He walked a batter and struck out 2, but didn’t allow any runs. Zack Godley did his best impersonation of Gerardo Concepcion.

OV Daily Facepalm

dailyfacepalm

Lots of HRs, lots of walks

Baez and Olt both hit bombs off of Randy Wolf (video here and here), a not uncommon occurance for Randy Wolf. Olt later hit another bomb against against a Mariners reliever.

Likely fifth starter James McDonald issued five walks in 2 2/3 innings in his start last night.

First round of cuts

The first round of cuts happened yesterday. Jorge Soler is bound for Tennessee, while Alcantara, Watkins, and Szczur were sent to Iowa. Also cut were Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Valez, Pimental, and Jokisch. All were sent to minor league gen-pop. 

Edwin Jackson friction with coaching staff

The coaching staff was kind of surprised/pissed at Jackson in his last outing, when he got knocked around after throwing nothing but fastballs. Which shouldn't be a big deal, but the coaches claim he didn't tell them about it beforehand. He threw an intrasquad game yesterday and threw three different types of pitches, but the quotes from Jackson and the coaching staff sound like fences aren't completely mended.

"I told them before the game," Jackson said. "I don't know if they thought it was for real. I got tired of being asked about it. Eric Gagne would go through a whole Spring Training throwing changeups."

…..

[Renteria] said he'd talk to the right-hander, but on Wednesday, the pitcher said they didn't.

"There's nothing to talk about," Jackson said.

Renteria said it was a private matter.

"He threw three pitches today," Renteria said. "It speaks for itself, I think."

So, no problem with the fastball-only outing?

"He was just doing what he wanted to do, which is work on his fastball command," Renteria said. "He had a purpose and a reason for doing what he was doing."

Renteria later said that he was happy with what he saw from Jackson's outing yesterday, so *shrug*. Maybe MLB network should send Kevin Millar out to have a sit-down with Jackson and explain to him that he should have told the coaching staff 8 months ago that he was going to throw fastballs in this start.

Is there a Cubs game today?

No.

How is replay going so far in Spring Training?

Through Tuesday, there have been 21 challenges so far in spring training, and only one has been overturned. BP's Zachary Levine takes a look at the system which certainly looks like a clusterfuck so far (not surprisingly). The article is paywalled, but the gist is that the relative lack of deterrent for challenges means there's no reason not to challenge very low probability plays. I do like the idea of penalizing a team with an extra out, but I'm not sure if MLB will let something like that mess up its box scores. There are a few other ideas listed from an earlier study by Pizza Cutter, but in my opinion the best solution would be to penalize the losing team with an intentional walk to whomever their next opposing batter is.  

One piece of good news is that on average the replay process has only taken three minutes per challenge, thus on average an extra 15 seconds per game in total.

Astros gotta Astro

OV “Daily” Facepalm

dailyfacepalm

Ted Lilly Added to Cubs front office

Ted Lilly signed on with the Cubs FO as a special assistant, and should be around as an instructor in spring training as well as doing some scouting and stuff during the season. Even though he struggled with injuries last year and retired this offseason, he might still have been good enough to crack the Cubs rotation. Like the CBA, the new home plate collision rules are also an unexpected drag on the Cubs as Lilly will have a more difficult time instructing players how to obliterate Yadier Molina.

Did we even go over the BA top 100?

The best (IMO) prospect list of the offseason (Baseball America) was released a week or two ago. We were all busy partying on the OV yacht that we bought with our intellectual property money to give it much notice, but this is how the Cubs did.

Much better than when Thoyer took over, when the list was

  • 38. Brett Jackson
  • 61. Javier Baez
  • 64. Matt Szczur
  • Cashner wasn't on the list at this point, not sure if he had lost his 'prospect' elgibility

More prospects chatter #insidejokehashtag

BP's Jason Parks visited the Cubs new facilities the other day and was impressed. He had a few comments on the Cubs top guys, but it's mostly scout-ese so I can't really add anything to it. He was really impressed by Almora especially, and thinks any defensive issues Baez has are coachable. He also says that Baez has the highest ceiling of any of the elite prospects out there, so (don't) get excited Cubs fans.

OV's owner-in-chief does good work

Benevolent Internet Overlord Harry Pavlidis, along with Dan Brooks, published a big study on catcher framing to BP yesterday. Probably the biggest surprise was that not only is Yadi a great defensive catcher, he's matched with the staff that's best suited to shaving the edges of zones via framing. Just one more reason to admire/hate those assholes. No Cubs players of note showed up on either of the best or worst lists by the new metric.

2014 Assume the Position: 2B

2014 Assume the Position:

Catchers
First Base

2013 Assume the Position:

Second Base

      Last Year 2014 Career (MLB)
  Name Age (2014 season) AVG OBP SLG wOBA Oliver wOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Barney 28 .208 .266 .303 .252 .279 .246 .293 .336 .278
AAA Watkins 24 .243 .333 .379 .325 .281 .211 .268 .237 .233
AA Alcantara 22 .271 .352 .451 .365 .293        
A+ Darvill 22 .253 .324 .365 .321 .256        
  Saunders 24 .226 .316 .321 .304 .288        
  Bruno 23 .362 .436 .478 .424 .326        
A Amaya 21 .252 .329 .369 .326 .277        
  Zapenas 24 .255 .419 .319 .364 .265        
A- Lockhart 21 .290 .346 .331 .328 .244        
  Bote 21 .250 .337 .366 .341 .261        
Rk Blair 24 .226 .297 .283 .285 .274        
  Stevens 25 .257 .388 .329 .359 .279        

The MLB average wOBA for a second baseman last year was .305.

MLB

Darwin Barney took a large step in the wrong direction. He's now had 3 of 4 MLB seasons with an OBP south of .300, and 2013 in particular was putrid. He's still a defensive stalwart, but that's all; he's one of the 2 or 3 worst hitters in baseball and shouldn't start for even a team as bad as ours. Barney has the chops to play 2B and SS which makes him a valuable backup, but no team that gives Barney 500 PA can reasonably aspire to contend without serious firepower everywhere else.

AAA

Logan Watkins must have taken a dump on Dale Sveum's desk last year, because after he was called up he was used quite sparingly. Watkins underperformed with the stick in AAA last year but still took his walks. He's not so punchless that pitchers can attack him directly, but he's probably never going to hit more than 6-8 HR a year. I'd like to see him break ST as the starting 2B and give him some time to see what you have, but the reality is probably utility 2B/CF at this point. 

AA

Arismendy Alcantara was shunted to 2B to make way for the Baez Express, which tore through the Southern League like $20 of Taco Bell through my digestive system. It might be a better fit for him (though I maintain CF could work equally well) anyways. Alcantara had a bit of a breakthrough season in 2013, and he'll start this year in AAA purgatory while his service clock becomes more tenable. Alcantara isn't going to embarass the PCL (or any league), and thus won't force the issue, but Arismendy should be a solid if unspectacular major league regular for the foreseeable future. 

A+

Wes Darvill got a taste of the AFL as Baez' replacement, but I think that was more out of the necessity for an infielder than Darvill's skills. He profiles probably as an upper-minors mainstay, perhaps grabbing a cup of coffee or two during his career. He's not particularly muscular or athletic but he makes it work. Tim Saunders is too old for this shit, and also too old to hit under the league average in A+. Stephen Bruno came back from an injury to further embarass the league he was placed in. He'll need to move relatively quickly, but he's only had 2 professional years and he went crazy in both of them. It'll be very interesting to see what happens when he faces actual pitching (his A- BABIP was .431, his A+ BABIP .472); he's not particularly fast, so those BABIPs are the result of him just being too good for the level. I'd look for an aggressive promotion here to see what you really have; it's difficult to gauge until then. 

A

Gioskar Amaya had a 2013 he'd rather forget. I thought he'd take a Great Leap Forward; instead, he tripped on his bat and lost 77 points of wOBA and over 240 points of OPS. The walks went down (but not a ton), the strikeouts stayed the same, and the BABIP fell to a normal level; the real loss was his power (which is what made him intriguing to start with). Hopefully Amaya finds it in 2014, and last year becomes a distant memory. Bradz A Penas sure can take a walk, but he can't do much of anything else. Punchless bats like his are just calling to be exposed against mid-90s heat and pitches that break hard and late.

A-

Daniel Lockhart (who I ALWAYS want to call Gilderoy) has a bat even more feckless than Zapenas'. It is entirely without feck. It's hard to envision him as anything more than organizational fodder but I've been wrong before. David Bote was much more promising in his second season of professional ball. I'd like to see him grab the lion's share of the starts in A ball next season. 

Rk 

Zak Blair (20th round, 2013) and Trevor Stevens (UDFA) are both old and neither had enough PA to really say anything constructive about. 

I thought 2B was a beacon of hope last year, and I was wrong. DeVoss moved off the position. Torreyes was traded. Watkins underperformed. At least Alcantara moved to the position (and it's feasible Baez ends up here when it all shakes up), and if Bruno stays at 2B he's got at least a shot to be a prospect in the future. All told, 2B is about middle-of-the-road as far as talent is concerned, with a few intriguing guys at the bottom and a few intriguing guys at the top. It's hard to ask for more than that.

 

 

BP’s top 10 Cubs prospects + consensus Top 14 prospects

The BP list came out, and it's a great read. Here it is, but a sub is required. I recommend getting a subscription; it really is great work. I won't share any of the bits besides the Top 10 list:

1. Baez
2. Bryant
3. Almora
4. Soler
5. Edwards
6. Alcantara
7. Johnson
8. Vogelbach
9. Villanueva
10. Candelario

No surprises on this list. Now, we have 5 rankings of at least some quality (the mlb.com and FG rankings probably barely qualify here). 14 people were vote-getters for a top 10 list (Sickels went 20 deep, but I ignored 11-20). If a player wasn't mentioned in a list, I gave them No. 11 for average purposes. Here's the list:

  BP Fangraphs BA Sickels mlb.com Average
Baez 1 1 1 1 1 1
Bryant 2 2 2 2 4 2.4
Almora 3 3 4 3 2 3
Soler 4 4 5 4 3 4
Edwards 5 7 3 5 11 6.2
Alcantara 6 5 7 6 8 6.4
Johnson 7 6 6 7 7 6.6
Vogelbach 8 8 9 9 10 8.8
Vizcaino 11 9 10 11 6 9.4
Candelario 10 11 8 8 11 9.6
Olt 11 11 11 11 5 9.8
Villanueva 9 11 11 10 11 10.4
Szczur 11 11 11 11 9 10.6
Hendricks 11 10 11 11 11 10.8

I'm going to make a list, probably today, and write it up as well. I'll be using the system that Uncle Dave and dmick created, because I think it's really, really good.

Thoughts? Can you believe that someone put Matt Szczur on their Top 10 list? 

Cubs shopping Castro for pitching?

Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog is reporting that the Cubs are looking for pitching in a Starlin Castro trade, 'according to people familiar with the organization'. With Javier Baez breathing down his neck much more quickly than expected and the equally fast-moving Kris Bryant blocking Baez from moving to 3b, the Cubs might have to make up their mind sooner than they planned with Castro. Castro's replacement level season in 2013 can't be helping much either. Even Alcantara could probably have outhit Castro's numbers, which is another, though smaller, source of upward pressure on him.

It's always been tough to read how the organization feels about Castro. On the one hand, major league quality 23 year olds at premium positions are exactly the kind of assets that the Superfriends have been saying they want to build around since day one, and they liked him enough to gave him a team-friendly seven year extension last summer. On the other hand, one of the other things that this front office has been stressing that the Cubs org in general needs to get better at is on base percentage, something that Castro has had *just* a bit of trouble with. It may have been a big part of his struggles this year, as Castro changed his approach to take more pitches and became a far worse hitter. He eventually gave up and went back to his free swinging self for the last month or so of the season and went from being awful to just kinda bad. He's also been a flashpoint with each of his last two managers for his defensive lapses, and while that may have had as much to do with the managers as him it's still something that follows him around now. 

One other obvious pressing need for the team is the complete and utter lack of young pitching in their system. They have a few interesting arms, but most of them are way down in the minors and we know well enough what to count on from pitching prospects. Seeing the flurry of insane flamethrowing rookie pitching from the Cardinals this postseason was disheartening to say the least, and only highlighted this issue for Cubs fans (at least, for me, and I guess GBTS's mom too – say hi to her for me).

If the Cubs hold on to Castro, the big question is then what they do with him. Baez sticking at SS seems to sound like more of a possibility than it was a year ago, despite roughly 821 errors last year. Castro's best asset at SS has always been his range, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a plus defender at second. The other possibility that's been floated around is to move him to CF, but I'd have to take a wait and see approach on that one. I do feel confident in saying that I'd much rather have a top (or top-ish) young starter than Castro in CF. 

Of course, one other problem is that if the Cubs trade Castro this offseason, they'd certainly be selling low. He just looked absolutely awful last year. Maybe if he bounces back next year the Cubs could get a lot more for him next offseason, as that gaping pitching hole isn't going anywhere. But you have to worry a bit about teams seeing that they need to move him if it looks clear that Baez is going to take his job, thus hurting his value.

Minor League Roundtable Part 3: Cubs Prospects ETA

This is our third part of the roundtable. Myles was not present at the time that Sitrick and I started, but his answers are toward the end.

dmick89: Of the major prospects, it's expected that Javier Baez will get to Chicago first. If he gets off to a good start at Iowa where I expect he'll begin the year, he could get called up soon. A hot April at Iowa and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in early May. The Cubs may want to cut costs somewhat, but super two status shouldn't really matter. If Baez is good enough, the Cubs can be expected to sign him long-term before he gets to that point. Otherwise, I would expect it not to be a financial issue.

I was surprised Arismendy Alcantara didn't get a promotion to Iowa this year, but he'll start there next season. Like Baez, he could get called up quickly. A lot will depend on what Barney is doing at 2nd base, but defense be damned, the Cubs won't hesitate to replace Barney.

I don't think we see Jorge Soler at the big league level next year. I can't imagine a situation in which Albert Almora pushes himself up to the big league level. I can't even imagine this front office promoting at the necessary rate to ensure it happens. For what it's worth, I don't think we'll see Almora until late 2015.

Sitrick: Yep, barring injury or Olt-esque performance, I'd expect Baez to be with the big club by early June at the latest. The PCL is going to really play to Baez's strengths, so if he struggles it's going to be really surprising to me, and really quite troubling.

I've heard people suggest that with a good season Bryant could find himself with the big club in September. That would seem unlike this front office, which has preached patience in the development process and has stressed the importance of giving players a substantial number of minor league PAs. But when a hitter's ready, a hitter's ready, and Bryant has yet to reach a league that has presented any sort of difficulty for him. If they start Bryant at Tennessee, I'd give it an outside chance we see him with the big club before the year's through, but if he goes back to Daytona even for a brief period, I think he'll run out of games to prove himself MLB-ready next year.

Agreed that Alcantara will get up, but something about his skillset makes me think he'll bounce back and forth a couple of times. I can't put my finger on why, I just get the feeling he's going to struggle initially.

If Soler starts at Tennessee and lights the world on fire, I think he's got just as good a chance at a September callup as Bryant, though at a certain point someone is going to get held off for contractual reasons, and Soler doesn't have the polish or game-hours logged that Bryant does. Which is a long way of saying I agree, I think he's a long shot to end up in the majors next year.

Could Pierce Johnson make it by September if everything falls the right way? Whichever of Christian Villanueva and Mike Olt that doesn't get traded will probably get a look. Then there are the lesser impact guys, Hendricks and Szczur being the guys immediately to come to mind.

dmick89: I made fun of the idea of Bryant starting the season at 3rd base by suggesting something even more ridiculous. I still think it's a silly idea to think he could start the season with the Cubs, but I do think he's got a good chance to move quite quickly through the system. Bryant is the first higher end prospect the Cubs have had since Thoyer took over that went to college. Since I looked at Jacoby Ellsbury's career recently, he was a college-aged kid the Sox drafted when Theo ran the team and he reached the big leagues quickly. I think Bryant could be even better and reach it more quickly.

I don't think it's likely. I think he still spends all of 2014 in the minors, but if he's proving to be too good for the levels he's at, I think the team might promote him faster than we've seen them do so far.

I think Pierce Johnson has a shot, but I expect a good season will get him to AAA by the end of the year. Pitchers can be promoted more quickly than position players. A team may need a starter if a couple are injured so it's entirely possible he's up next year and even throws quite a few innings. I doubt it.

I'm not sure what to make of Alcantara. I think he has a good chance to be productive at the MLB level, but I also think he has a good chance of being a back-up or utility player. Or never even catching on and being good enough for that. He'll be highly ranked after this year, but he's one who can fall quickly, too.

At some point you run out of room on the roster for prospects so we may be digging too deep at this point.

Sitrick: Of course, there are only so many roster spots. I'm mostly expecting to see prospects at areas of volatility on the roster; we saw what, 4 different players at 3B this season? (Lewis, Valbuena, Murphy and Ransom). I could see Baez, Valbuena, Murphy, and Olt/Villanueva all getting ABs there in 2014. Center will likely be just as in flux, barring a Jacoby Ellsbury addition (sidenote: this is another reason I don't see the club signing Ellsbury, as reports are that the FO really loves Almora and I can't see them signing anyone that will block him beyond 2014). And the inevitable rotation injuries will almost undoubtedly clear the way for Hendricks or Johnson if they're ready. Combine that with trades and various other maneuverings and I think the roster concerns are less of an issue than who is going to be ready to contribute.

Sitrick: Wait, I have no idea where I got Lewis from. Brain fart. I think I got Cody Ransom confused with Colby Lewis? I'm a dumb person. Anyway.

dmick89: I think it's a big mistake to not sign free agents because you really like a prospect who just played some ball at A level. The number of prospects who GMs have really liked at that level who didn't pan out are in the hundreds and maybe thousands. I get why the Cubs are excited with Almora, but the guy was a high school pick and is at least two years away. We've seen how slow they've been at promoting. Best case for Almora is at the end of 2015. I don't think you can hold a spot open for a guy who hasn't even reached A+ yet. If they sign a CF, Ellsbury or another one, they can always move that guy to LF or RF. Or move Almora to one of those positions. You still need 3 outfielders so I have trouble seeing how their like of Almora would have an impact on whether or not they'd sign a CF this offseason.

If the Cubs are keeping a spot open for Javier Baez, I get that. He's very close to MLB ready.

Soler has two options left, right? Pretty sure he's eligible for a fourth. The Cubs will undoubtedly use the third one in 2014, but I bet they wouldn't mind having one in their pocket if needed. Due to that, I could definitely see Soler getting called up sooner than I initially thought.

Sitrick: I see your point, and I agree with you, but I've seen a number of reports about how the Cubs don't want a long term option in center precisely because of Almora. I think end of 2015 isn't exactly best case, but is probably the likely case. I think that's why they want lake in center if he can hack it, because he's a good seat warmer that can be ditched without much trouble or heartache.

dmick89: They always say "you can never have too much pitching." This is correct, but what they should be saying is that "you can never have too much talent." I think this applies to the possibility of acquiring a CF or another outfielder this offseason. If Almora progresses quickly, and the Cubs had gone out and signed a CF this offseason, they won't complain about having too much talent.

Regarding best case, aren't we using Baez as an example? He was drafted a year earlier. Both are high school picks. Two years after being drafted Baez was at AA. It's possible he goes back though more likely he's up at Iowa. I think it's possible Baez gets called up early, but probably more likely it's near the end of the season (July or later). That would be July 2015 or later for Almora. Then there's the performance difference to this point. Baez has been a lot better, stayed healthy and plays a more premium position. Best case is probably sooner than the end of 2015, but it would mean that Almora went absolutely freaking nuts at the plate next year. I've seen no indication, scouting or performance, to suggest he's capable of that. I don't know, but based on the relative difference in talent between the two, and I think it's considerable, I think we should expect a later call-up than we would for Baez.

I guess if I'm Tom Ricketts and I've got a GM who insists we wait for Almora, I'm asking him to stake his reputation and his job on it. He damned well better be right if he's passing on available free agents in favor of what currently is still a longshot.

Myles: I think you are both far too aggressive with your Baez and Alcantara promotions. They have preached the 500 AAA appearances thing since they got here. Baez won't even have 500 AA appearances until June I'd he started there this season. Alcantara will be first (June) and I bet Baez is a September callup.

I also think Bryant has half a chance for a cup of coffee in September. He's obviously advanced, as is the type of guy that this FO loves.

Sitrick: The FO has also discussed prospects "beating" their development plan, and if prospects perform, they'll be promoted. As Parks always preaches, successful organizations tailor their development plan to the player and are flexible.

Myles: I also agreed with dmick about not worrying about blocks, especially ones so far away. I'd go so far to say that I'd sign an impact 3B if it "blocked" Baez when he gets up here. Talent is talent, and it's the best problem in the world to have when you've got too many capable guys. You trade the one you think you've scouted better than the other guys, and turn your excess talent into pitching or some other commodity. That being said, obviously the Cubs shouldn't be making it a priority to block their own guys.

That's true, and I hope you're right. As good as Baez' year was, it wasn't exactly without problems. He can still learn things (whether he could hope to learn them in AA, where he's clearly too talented remains to be seen).

Sitrick: Thoyer is already on record that they expect Baez to start the year in Iowa.

Myles: Pinning CF on a guy 2 years removed from high-school, who has had his share of injuries already, seems just extraordinarily loose to me. Of course, he's embarrassing the AFL so far, so who knows?

All I know is that Iowa is going to be a hot ticket at some point in 2014. Compared to the shitshow it was in 2013, it's going to be nice for the good folks of Des Moines.

If I had to lay a timeline when I think the Top 6 prospects arrive, it be something like:

Baez: August/September 2014
Bryant: April 2015
Soler: June 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: September 2015
Johnson: April 2015

Of course, this assumes they dont' all bust terribly.

Sitrick: The I-Cubs are 3.5 hours away from me, and I am already planning on attending at least a game at every home series in April. It's gonna be awesome.

My timeline:

Baez: June 2014
Bryant: April 2015 with an outside shot at September 2014 if he hits and Left/3B is a shitshow.
Soler: May/June 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: September 2015
Johnson: April 2015 with an outside shot at September 2014 if the team surprisingly contends and there's an injury, or they want him to help out the bullpen.

I'm aggressive on Baez because, as has been said by you yourself Myles, I'm not sure the things Baez has to learn can be learned in the minors. AA parks couldn't contain him, and the PCL isn't going to do much better.

Myles: I really do think the first time he struggles, it'll be in Chicago.

dmick89: Baez: July 2014 (Cubs wait to avoid super 2)
Bryant: April 2015
Soler: April 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: April 2016
Johnson: September 2014

As one of you said, this assumes they don't crap out and since we're talking 6 guys it's guaranteed to happen to some of them. If all 6 reach these expectations, the Cubs are going to be really really good.

Minor League Roundtable Part 2: Breakouts and Busts

Part 2 of our Roundtable series discussing all sorts of things relevant to the Cubs Minor League system. Let's get into it, shall we?

 

Myles: Who do you guys think could breakout next year? I think there's a slam-dunk answer to breakout candidates, but I have a few I'd like to talk about. The one I'm most confident about is Shawon Dunston, Jr. He's been great when he hasn't been injured, and he's got plate discipline, with enough power to make pitchers worry. He's also a great defender in the outfield. He was well thought-of before injuries derailed him, and I think he'll take a step forward next year. 

I also think that when Stephen Bruno comes back next year, he's got a chance to enter the prospect conversation. He had a nice season in 2012 but unfortunately lost essentially all of 2013. He probably isn't more than a supersub, but it's hard to deny a guy that crushed A- to the tune of 172 wRC+ in his first professional year, and was on the way to do the same at A+ until his injury. 

My last guy is Paul Blackburn, who has a shot to be the best Cubs pitching prospect at the end of 2014 in my mind. He's still got to fill out, but I don't think he'll have a problem with it (unlike CJ Edwards). When he does fill out, he'll have a nice sinking fastball with good plane and good location. That's a pitch that you can build a MLB career around. Huge walk rates don't faze me in the minors unless it's really obvious something is going wrong.

Dmick: Funny, Shawon Dunston, Jr. was the guy I was going with. He had a great walk rate this year, but it was in a level he should be hitting quite well in. His ISO was disturbingly low, but I think we'll see that improve if he can stay healthy. Honestly though, this is a category that's so hard to pick and the easier topic to discuss is what prospects are likely to fall next season. I can go with any possible breakout. Trey Masek comes to mind. I know I've been low on Jeimer Candelario, but he's another guy who could take a few steps next year.  

sitrick: I said so in my review, but I still believe in Gioskar Amaya. I think there was so much crap working against him this season, it was in hindsight a bit premature to be predicting huge things from him in Kane County. He's still got a quick bat, and reports on the defense are positive. I think he has a "putting it together" sort of season and ends 2014 with the Smokies. I think Yasiel Balaguert could find some helium in '14 too.

Dmick: I think Yasiel Balaguert is going to struggle just because I can't ever imagine having to write that name without thinking what the next letter should be.  /dumbshit who hasn't taken Spanish since high school.

Myles: I like Jeimer, and not just because he follow me on twitter. 

Dmick: Possible breakdowns? CJ Edwards and Kyle Hendricks, I think, are the obvious ones.

Myles: I think Kyle Hendricks is due for some regression, just like Nick Struck was (though hopefully not to that level). Sahadev Sharma says scouts don't think his slider plays in the majors, which he'd need to keep MLB talent off the hittable fastball. I can see that, but I also think Hendricks is an intelligent pitcher who at the very least keeps the ball in the park. 

sitrick: Dillon Maples could wash out pretty quick if he doesn't find some success in full-season ball soon. I wouldn't be shocked to see Alcantara take a step back next season. This was a big year for him and he did wear down near the end of it. I think I need to see another year out of Edwards before I make any judgements. I wouldn't be surprised if he imploded, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took a step forward and jumped into the national top 25. I think we'll know more when he gets to a level where we can see pitch counts and really judge if his low innings are because of an innings limit/lack of efficiency or if he's just not capable of putting a 6+ inning start together.

Myles: Maples is probably the hardest prospect to pin down in the organization. He could be a Top 10 guy in the org next year, or be in Indy ball. I'm still an Edwards believer. I know that Parks thinks there's no way he adds weight to his frame, but he also liked his delivery and repeatable motion. When it's said and done, I think Edwards ends up as a very, very nice fireman/closer, which is a nice thing to have. And there's that 1-in-20 chance he adds 15 pounds of good weight, in which case he could be a #2 or #3 (probably #3 type). There's also the 1-in-3 chance his body just says "I can't handle this" and he gets Arodys Vizcaino disease. I'd REALLY like to see him start in person. 

Dmick: As I mentioned, the innings limit doesn't make sense to me. He only pitched 47 innings in 2012 and 126.1 this year, but he also pitched in extended spring training in 2012. The innings limit doesn't make sense to me. 
 
sitrick: I have a gut feeling Edwards isn't the most efficient guy in the world, and that more than anything is where his lack of innings comes from. But I want to see the pitch counts and know for sure before I judge.
 
Oh, here's a bold prediction for you: I think if Josh Vitters stays healthy next year he gets a second look in the majors as a left fielder and surprises some folks. Not a superstar or a Role-6 or anything, but I still think he peaks as an acceptable Role-5 guy if health doesn't continue to be an issue. Call me crazy, but I'm buying in.
 
Dmick: Ok, I'll do it. You're crazy. (dying laughing) In all seriousness, I can see Vitters get a second look, but I can't see it turning out well. Maybe as a back-up. I don't know. 
 
Myles: No, I like Vitters! I'm worried that he'll never stay healthy again after 2013, but he's STILL going to be just 24 next year. He has as good a chance as any to get some PT in left next year. If he ends up a left-side bench player, I wouldn't be at all surprised.

 

 

 
Who is more likely to breakout for the Cubs next year: Josh Vitters or Brian Bogusevic? Is this even a question?
 
Dmick: Is there a third option or do I have to pick Vitters or Bogusevic? I'll go with the third option. 
 
sitrick: The swing is so fucking good with VItters, and he's never been successful right off the bat at any full-season level. I just believe he'll look better the second time around in the majors. Not rational, I know.

Myles: "Not rational" is becoming a running theme here.

sitrick: (dying laughing) I know it's mostly coming from me. I'm an optimist, sue me.