Cano – Barney = 78 Runs

I was reading the solidly-above-replacement-level Yankees blog rlyw.net this morning, and I came across a very interesting table. It listed the Runs Created at 2B for each team this year. I won't reproduce the whole list (seriously, check out that blog, it's interesting), but I share one thing:

NYY: 123 RC
CHC: 45 RC

That's a difference of 78 RUNS. It's really hard to imagine that one player could offensively be worth almost a run every other game over another MLB player, but here it is. Of course, Robinson Cano is the best 2B in the game, a HOF hitting his prime. When you consider the positional median is at 78 RC, he's an extremely good piece to have.

It's hard to believe that a team can provide so little value at a position, but that's what Darwin Barney does. Shockingly, Toronto got even less production from 2B this year, but the two teams are still outliers. You replace Barney with a bottom-quarter 2B and you'd still pick up around 20 runs.

If we adjust for Defensive Run Saved (the first run-based defensive stat I could think of), the gap closes…but not considerably. Barney saved 11 runs with his glove this year, but Cano saved 6. The gap is still 72 runs, which is roughly 7 wins from one position alone!

I'm not trying to use this as an argument to sign Robinson Cano. It's not. What I am saying is that even with Barney's defensive value, he's still one of the worst 2 or 3 2B in baseball right now. The Cubs can add 3 to 4 wins just by being average at second base next year. Can Alcantara be an average 2B next year? It's certainly possible. Even if he's bottom-quarter, though, he's probably still worth more than Barney. Barney's value is that he's a premium defensive replacement at 2B/SS and spot starter. Nothing more.

Barney has now played the 2B for the bulk of 3 consecutive seasons. In those seasons, his maximal line was .276/.313/.353, which was a wOBA of .294, "good" for a wRC+ of 79. His defensive wizardry was enough to convince BP that his WARP in '11 and '12 was 1.3 and 2.3, respectively. However, this year, BP had him at -2.0, with a True Average right at the Mendoza line. BP didn't even like his fielding this year, with a FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) at -1.7, a change of 13 runs from 2011. I'm willing to give Barney the benefit of the doubt (and chalk this up to the relatively unreliable nature of defensive statistics).

Fortunately (if that's the right word) for Darwin, his splits are essentially even, with an OBP of .306 and .303 agaisnt lefties and righties respectively. He's sub-replacement level from both sides of the plate, but just so, so he'll find work on some team's bench for a few years, until the shine on his glove wears off. If the Cubs are serious about contending in 2014, though, Barney just can't be a starter. He just can't be.

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Pierce Johnson

pierce-johnson Pierce Johnson is a 6-3, 170 pound right-handed starting pitcher. He was born May 10, 1991 and was drafted out of Missouri State in the 1st round (43) of the 2012 Draft. After Picking Albert Almora the Cubs picked pitcher after pitcher in the first 10 rounds because the organization lacked impact starting pitchers.

Johnson entered the season as arguably the top pitching prospect in the organization. It largely depended on whether you view Arodys Vizcaino as a starter or reliever. This year, Pierce Johnson did nothing to disappoint. He was the 6th ranked Cubs prospect by Baseball America entering 2013 and thanks to an even stronger farm system, he's probably not moving up. He could move to 5th, but that's about it.

Johnson was drafted Faith Christian Academy High School in 2009 by the Rays in the 15th round, but opted for college instead. It paid off and he could conceivably see big league action in 2014 at the age of 23. A safer bet would be 2015, but depending on what the Cubs do this offseason, they may have an opening in the rotation at some point next year.

Performance

In 2012 Pierce Johnson threw only 11 innings between rookie league in Arizona and short-season Boise. He allowed 14 walks, walked 3 and struckout 14. It wasn't a great debut, but it wasn't bad either. Promoted to full season Kane County in 2013, Johnson began to shine in 13 starts and 69.2 innings.

He struckout 25% of the batters and walked 7.4%. His ERA 3.10 and his FIP was 2.98. He allowed 68 hits and 4 of them were home runs.

Johnson entered the season as probably the most polished among the Cubs starting pitching prospects. Dave and I thought he'd move much faster than the others, not including Arodys Vizcaino. He was probably a bit old for the Midwest League and was promoted to the more age appropriate Florida State League.

He continued to pitch very well. In 48.2 innings, he allowed 41 hits and only 1 home run. He struckout 25.5%, but his walk rate did climb to 10.7%. i don't expect he'll walk that many going forward. His ERA was an impressive 2.22 and his FIP was 2.95.

Scouting

There is plenty of information from the scouting experts so here's what some of them have to say.

Since 2001, Missouri State has had four pitchers selected in the first or sandwich round, and the Bears have sent seven arms to the big leagues. Their latest quality hurler is Johnson, who went 43rd overall last June and lasted that long only because he missed two starts with a forearm strain in the spring. His stuff looked as crisp as ever after he signed for $1,196,000. Johnson consistently works at 92-94 mph and reaches 96 with his lively fastball. His hammer curveball gives him two pitches that can get swings and misses. He also has a mid-80s cutter and a changeup that's coming along nicely. Johnson is more about power than finesse, and his control and command are no better than average at this point. He doesn't have a clean medical history, as he had forearm issues as a high school senior and college freshman and dislocated a kneecap while warming up in the summer Cape Cod League in 2011. The Cubs rave about his work ethic and character almost as much as they do about Albert Almora's. How thin is the system's pitching? Among Chicago prospects with a legitimate chance to pitch in the front half of a big league rotation, Johnson already is the second-most advanced despite having just 11 innings of pro experience. The Cubs will expedite his development, which could mean starting his first full pro season in high Class A. — Baseball America (pre-2013)

Strengths: Good size and wiry strength; fastball works in the 90-93 range, but he can get more when he needs it; good angle to pitch; good sinking action; can get ahead with the pitch; curveball is hard breaker; 81-84 mph, with late break, good shape, and depth; deep arsenal; will also show a cut fastball and a changeup; knows how to miss bats.

Weaknesses: Hasn’t been able to stay healthy; delivery has some effort; deliberate with secondary arsenal; changeup is inconsistent; doesn’t play as average offering yet.

Overall Future Potential: High 5/Low 6; no. 3 starter at the major-league level.

The Year Ahead: Johnson just needs to log innings and work to refine his arsenal through repetition and consistency. Because of mature pitch mix and control ability, should be able to make the jump to High-A, where his punchy low-90s heater and hard curve should continue to miss bats. He has a chance to be a good rotation horse. He just needs to stay healthy. — Jason Parts (pre-2013)

At the midseason recap, Jason Parks had him as a potential top 101 prospects for 2014. Based on his strong second half, I'd say there's a very good chance he joins Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora and Arismendy Alcantara in the top 101. Dan Vogelbach could also be there. That's crazy considering the system a couple years ago. Well done, Thoyer.

In a year where the college pitching crop didn't truly separate itself, Johnson helped himself with strong performances for most of the season. A forearm strain hurt his stock a bit, but he returned to throw well and was taken in the sandwich round. Johnson's three-pitch mix is highlighted by a fastball that can touch 94 mph and is very effective when he keeps it down in the zone. His hard curve can be an out pitch, and he gets more strikeouts with that than with his fastball. Johnson didn't use his changeup that frequently in college, and he does need to develop it to have success as a starting pitcher. He's tall, but not overly physical, he's trying to add weight to his frame. Competitive and aggressive on the mound, he throw strikes consistently. Assuming he stays healthy, Johnson shouldn't take too long to get to the big leagues, with a ceiling as a strong middle of the rotation starter. — mlb.com

Solid all-around, good fastball and strong curve, throws strikes, main worry is history of forearm troubles. Mid-rotation starter if his arm holds up. — John Sickels

I'll admit that I'm still somewhat surprised by the relatively low ceiling that these guys give Pierce Johnson. He throws pretty hard, has 3, maybe 4 pitches average or better already.

Outlook

Johnson could begin 2014 in AA Tennessee, but my money is on a return to High A Daytona. The Cubs have been very deliberate in their promotions of prospects and I expect they'll want more than 48.2 innings in High A. A strong spring could convince them AA is where he belongs.

If AA is where he goes at the start of the season, there's a small chance he could see big league action in 2014. I'd say it's more like May or June in 2015.

The arm injuries are concerning, but so far in his professional career he's made all his starts that I'm aware of and has not had any trouble. That doesn't mean he's good to go, but maybe it's something that he has gotten over.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects Review: Marco Hernandez

Marco Hernandez is 6-0, 170 pounds. He was born September 6, 1992 in the Dominican Republic and currently plays shortstop. The right-hander bats has been known for his defense and is a switch hitter. The Cubs signed Hernandez during the July 2009 international signing period. He was signed on July 17th and was not included in Baseball America's Top 25 international prospects. I can't seem to find for how much his signing bonus was, but a betting man would say "not very much."

Performance

Hernandez signed just a couple months before his 17th before so was unable to come to the US like most international prospects. He didn't arrive in the US until the 2011 season. He played in 51 games in rookie league that year and had an impressive .384 wOBA (120 wRC+) over 233 plate appearances. He only had 2 home runs, but he added 16 doubles and 5 triples. As a result, his was .152.

In 2012 the Cubs moved him to Kane County (A level) at the start of the season and that turned out to be a disaster. Hernandez had only a 53 wRC+ and his strikeout rate jumped from 12.4% in 2011 to over 23%. After 171 awful plate appearances, he was demoted to Boise (A-) and his numbers were about average (104 wRC+), but he showcased a 3.5% walk rate over 283 plate appearances. The organization then moved him back to Kane County at the start of this season.

Hernandez was fairly well thought of entering the season by some scouts. I was always a little concerned. He struck me as the typical player with no power and little ability to get on base that I didn't think his position would end up mattering. This year he didn't prove otherwise.

In 443 plate appearances he hit .254/.287/.338. His wOBA was only .289 and his wRC+ just 75. Darwin Barney might be able to play spectacular enough defense to get by with numbers that bad or worse, but there probably aren't that many.

His walk rate was 3.6% this year and he struckout in 16.3% of his plate appearances. He had just 4 home runs and added only 17 doubles and 3 triples. His ISO, for those who can't subtract AVG from SLG, was .084.

Needless to say, he did not have a good season and has yet to solve the full season league.

Scouting

Hernandez puts the ball in play for the most part, but has struggled with strikeouts so it's something to watch moving forward. He plays above average defense at shortstop and of all the shortstop prospects the Cubs had entering the season, scouts believed he had the best chance to stick permanently. The front office liked Hernandez well enough when they took over that they actually sent him to the full season league at Kane County and put left Javier Baez back at Arizona. Now Baez is tearing up AA and Hernandez just finished a below average season at the same level he began last year.

He lacks plate discipline too, which is of course no good.

Some scouting reports from the experts published prior to the season are below.

18) Marco Hernandez, SS, Grade C+: Defense gets strong reviews and he's got a chance to hit, too. Hernandez/Candelario/Amaya is a hell of an infield for Low-A in '13. – Sickels

It was Hernandez and not 2011 first-round pick Javier Baez who opened last season as Peoria's starting shortstop. Hernandez wasn't ready to make the jump from Rookie-ball to low Class A and didn't get his bat going until he went to Boise in June. While he can't match the tools of Baez or Arismendy Alcantara, Hernandez has no glaring weaknesses and a better chance to stay at shortstop in the long term. A switch-hitter, he has an easy swing from both sides of the plate and more pop as a lefty. His Midwest League performance aside, he makes reliable contact and should have solid gap power once he gets stronger. He'll have to improve his plate discipline and pitch recognition to handle better pitching. Hernandez has above-average speed but still is learning to make the most of it on the bases. He has the actions, quickness and solid arm required at shortstop, but he let the game speed up too much on him defensively in 2012, committing 32 errors in 105 games. He'll be better equipped to handle low Class A when he opens there in 2013. – Baseball America

Hernandez isn’t flashy in the field but he’s reliable and steady. One talent evaluator I spoke with said the Dominican Republic native “presently has a decent chance to stay in the middle infield.” I personally saw the Boise team late in the year during the Northwest League playoffs and expect to be more enamoured with fellow infielder Jeimer Candelario but came away more impressed with Hernandez. – Hulet

Hernandez likely won't be among the Cubs top 25 prospects next year and there's a strong case, in my opinion, that he doesn't belong in the top 30.

Outlook

Hernandez will probably move to High A Daytona, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to leave him at Kane County and hope to see improvement. If he can't improve next year, the Cubs are probably looking at a back-up infielder. Even as a back-up, he's going to have to hit significantly better than he's shown at his highest level so far to even get that chance. We say prospects have a "make or break year" too often, but in Hernandez's case, it is true.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2014 Contending Cubs, Part 2: Depth

We've taken a look at the 2014 Cubs Payroll as part of this series and we learned that it's unlikely the Cubs are going to have enough money to buy themselves a championship. They'll have about $25-35 million to spend this offseason, which is a considerable amount, but not large enough to sign multiple big-name free agents. In order to contend next season, it will be necessary that the Cubs get some production from players making the league minimum.

There are already a few sprinkled on the roster, but none of them are likely to provide significant value unless you're on the Junior Lake bandwagon. I'm interested in some of the other players the Cubs have in the minor leagues who could be, at one point during the season, a valuable addition.

I'm talking more about guys like Mike Olt, Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, Kyle Hendricks and maybe even one or two others. I don't see any other major prospects making an impact next season. Jorge Soler has spent the bulk of this season injured and he'll more than likely return to High A to begin next season. Albert Almora, Dan Vogelbach and perhaps even Kris Byrant are likely to be Soler's teammates. They're far enough away from the big leagues that I don't think we could reasonably expect any significant contribution from any. I doubt we even see any of those guys at the big league level until 2015 or later.

Mike Olt

There's nobody in Olt's way at 3rd base. Luis Valbuena got off to a pretty good start in 2013, but has faded. He now has a 92 wRC+, though his UZR is 8.7 so he's been worth 1.7 fWAR. It's still a surprisingly good season and the Cubs have shown they just aren't going to give Olt the job. Olt is a very good defender so the Cubs wouldn't lose anything defensively with him at 3rd, but they could gain a sizable amount offensively.

Before that can happen, Olt will have to get a few things straightened out. Since reaching AAA, he's been unimpressive. In his 59 PA at Iowa, a very small sample indeed, he's been downright terrible. Olt's strikeout rate has always hovered near the 25%, which is quite high in the low minors. Like the Cubs Brett Jackson, once he reached AAA, that strikeout rate jumped a lot. It's over 32% this season, which may be unacceptable for anyone who wants to have success at the MLB level. Sure, some have gotten by with similar rates, but there just aren't many of them.

More concerning than the strikeout rate is how much his offense has declined since reaching AAA. Some of that is the result of the strikeouts, some may be the result of some complications he had with his vision and some of it may be the pitchers beginning to exploit that contact weakness more than ever before. In other words,

Mike Olt is no sure thing. Not by a lot. He is, as GW put it in the comments during some discussion I can't remember entirely, a reclamation project. So far it's not going well and it probably won't until he cuts down on those strikeouts. So the Cubs may be stuck with Valbuena next year, but if Olt can get a few things figured out, he offers plus defense at 3rd, a good eye at the plate and a ton of power from the right side. Every team could use that. It's the kind of improvement from within the Cubs will have to see in order to contend in 2014.

Javier Baez

If everything works out as the Cubs hope, where will Javier Baez play at the MLB level? This isn't a question that needs an answer right now, but it's one of the more interesting questions with the Cubs. It's also a potentially nice situation to find yourself in.

Scouts have warmed up to the idea of Baez sticking at shortstop. The Cubs front office seems more confident, but what else are they supposed to say? I don't find the Cubs confidence on this particular issue to be reaffirming. They aren't going to acknowledge he can't play shortstop until they move him away. They shouldn't. The Cubs have Starlin Castro at short right now, but he's in the middle of his worst offensive season and has never been much of a defender anyway.

This question assumes that Mike Olt gets his shit figured out. If he does not, this isn't that interesting. The Cubs pick which of Baez and Castro they think is the better defender at SS and move the other to a different position. Baez most likely would play 3rd if he moved in this situation and Castro could move to 2nd, CF or even 3rd base.

Anyway, more about Javier Baez's fine season.

He got off to a sluggish start in High A, but was on such a tear over his last 6 weeks or so there that he finished the year at Daytona with a .390 wOBA (143 wRC+). Considering he was even young for the level, that's quite impressive. He's topped that at Tennessee. He has a .423 wOBA and a wRC+ of 171. We've even seen some improvement with his walk rate, though it still remains a concern in my opinion. We've also seen his strikeout rate remain the same at High A and jump over 31% at AA.

He showed the ability to improve some in that regard as he made improvements at High A, but has not yet taken that step in AA. Still, it's an ability he's shown even though he's still posted very high rates. Like Olt and Brett Jackson before him, it's a high enough rate at the low minors that it's of great concern, in my opinion.

Despite all of the concerns, wow. Just wow.

No matter where Baez may end up or what kind of position shuffling could ensue, Baez represents the largest improvement over anything the team currently has.

Arismendy Alcantara

Complicating the infield further is Arismendy Alcantara, who was well thought of entering the season, but is now highly thought of enough that he's sure to be a top 100 prospect. Alcantara has been struggling recently, but has still had a very good season. He has a .354 wOBA and 124 wRC+.

He's played over half his games at SS, but is seen as more as a 2nd baseman. His season is all the more impressive when you consider his age. Compared to the median age of each level, he was one of the youngest Cubs minor leaguers. He's played more than half his games in his career at SS so is probably a fairly good fielder at 2nd base. He won't start the season with the Cubs, but could be up soon enough and offer a significant enough offensive improvement over Darwin Barney that we see a change. He's probably not the fielder that Barney is, but the potential improvement at the plate more than outweighs that.

Kyle Hendricks

Hendricks has had one hell of a season at AA Tennessee. In 126.1 innings, he's walked only 5.1% of the batters and struckout nearly 20%. He's not exactly a strikeout pitcher, but the difference between those two rates is very good. His ERA is below 2 and has an FIP of 2.65. He's shown excellent command throughout his career while keeping an acceptable strikeout rate.

I'm not sure what kind of improvement Hendricks might offer at the big league level. He hasn't been promoted to Iowa yet despite the performance so the Cubs see no reason to rush him along. Their current rotation will include Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood for sure. Several other pitchers will get a shot to make the rotation and Kyle Hendricks might be one of them. An impressive spring could land him on the Cubs roster.

Any of the other potential improvements would be minor. For that matter, they'd be relatively minor with the exception of Javier Baez and possibly Mike Olt. The Cubs will probably need at least one, if not both of them, in order to contend next season.

Links

2014 Contending Cubs, Part 1: Payroll

2014 Cubs: A Bat Away From Normal

Any baseball fan likely realizes that the game is fundamentally different in 2013 than it was in, say, 1999 (the height of the "We Care About Steroids" era). In 1999, the league wOBA was .341; in 2013, it's .313. That's a titanic difference. Walks are at a 20-year low, and strikeouts this year are only lower than last year (and 19.7% of all PA). This seems to be understood by the vast, vast majority of Cubs fans.

On the other hand, there seems to be a disconnect at the team level. When people (myself included) look at a team that's offensively challenged, they have a tendency to overstate their putrescence. In reality, the Cubs are not much worse than the average team.

	League	Cubs	Difference
C	.312	.333	.021
1B	.332	.346	.014
2B	.301	.242	-.059
SS	.295	.281	-.014
3B	.312	.311	-.001
RF	.324	.308	-.016
CF	.317	.319	.002
LF	.319	.322	.003
Total			-.05
2B excl.			.009

Darwin Barney is a defensive wizard, but he's an offensive black hole. Luckily for the Cubs, not only is the bar for 2B offense quite low, the Cubs have 2 internal options that might be able to cheaply fill in as soon as 2014. The first, Logan Watkins, has a .327 wOBA in the PCL, which translates (roughly) to a .297 mark in the majors, and Alcantara's .360 translates to .302. Either one offers a substantial dip in defensive value, but I'm not sure that the tradeoff of 60 points of wOBA isn't worth it.

The other places the Cubs could upgrade are relatively easy to fix. SS has been a problem this year, but Castro is still expected to rebound (and he's been improving) and I'd expect him to at least hit the average SS this year. If you believe in Junior Lake, you could hope he gets you .319 in wOBA: your other option is to buy wOBA in free agency (and I'll detail a few ways that could happen soon). Other than those spots, the Cubs are as good or better than the league average; the only person they have to replace here is Dioner Navarro, and even omitting him, Castillo's .312 wOBA is exactly average for the position.

If the Cubs wish to upgrade externally at 2B, RF, or CF (moving DeJesus to a corner – keep in mind you'd have to get a CF wOBA around .332 to offset the decreased RF production from Schierholtz), they've got a few options.

Robinson Cano is a free agent, and he's on a fringe-HOF path as it is. He's going to command somewhere in the realm of 8/$184, in my opinion. I wouldn't touch it, but he'd instantly take 2B wOBA up around 120 points. Kelly Johnson is probably a 2/$10 guy, which is totally fine, and he brings a roughly league-averag wOBA to the position this year and next. He's a solid replacement option that you don't feel bad about putting on the bench when/if Alcantara is ready to take it over. Chase Utley is probably being extended, and is probably priced out of our range for what he is.

The big get here is Jacoby Ellsbury, if the Red Sox don't re-sign him. He is probably good for around .335 in the wOBA department, with the fringe benefit of competent defense there. A quick and dirty guess at his contract would be 4/71, so right at 17.8 AAV. That's pricey, but that's free agency. You could try to buy low on Curtis Granderson, but I wouldn't be that comfortable projecting more than a .330-.340 wOBA from him with poor outfield defense. If you could get him for 2/18 or something, you could probably talk, but his name will get him more than that.

I've been carrying my torch for Shin-Soo Choo, and this is the reason why. He plays a sub-par RF, but he play it. He's on pace for a .388 wOBA season (and was projected for .372). I'd say the least optimistic projection for next year is .350, which is still 26 points better than the league average RF, AND you can keep the CF you already have (that's league average) in CF, where his bat plays. You could even move Choo to LF (which has lower offensive standards anyway, if not true historically), and keep Schierholtz there if you can find a platoon mate). Nelson Cruz is on option, too, but he's a horrific fielder, might be suspended/altered due to Biogenesis, is injury-prone, and is the kind of middling OBP – high SLG guy that we don't really need.

If you replace Barney with even a mediocre wOBA, you're sitting at a league-average offense in this depressed environment. The replacement is essentially free, with 2 valid options in-house for the league minimum. The Cubs have a ton of money to play with, and there are options in free agency to cover their few holes offensively. Add in a return to form somewhat for Castro, a step forward from Rizzo, and some natural regression to the Cubs RISP BA, and it's not hard to envision a Cubs team that is at worst an average offensive club.

Fun with MLE calculators: Javier Baez' projected line in the majors off of his AA stint is .187/.237/.546, 35.1 K%, 6.5 BB%.

Cubs Midseason Top Prospects: Consensus Rankings

All of the major scouting outlets have published their midseason top prospects updates by now, which is good since the season is well over halfway through. I rounded up a bunch of them (from Baseball America, Bullpen Banter, Baseball Prospectus's Jason Parks, ESPN's Keith Law, and minorleagueball's John Sickels) and pulled the rankings for Cub prospects, including newly acquired 'spects Mike Olt and C.J. Edwards.

Cubs Midseason Top Prospects

	BA (50)	BB (75)	BP (50)	KL (50)	Sickels (75)	Consensus
Javier Baez	10	19	17	27	14	17
Albert Almora	16	16	15	25	18	18
Jorge Soler	18	18	31	20	23	22
Kris Bryant	NA	26	~25	15	~20
Arismendy Alcantara	NR	NR	~100	~57	57
Mike Olt	44	NA	NR	NR	~80
C.J. Edwards	NR	70	NR	NR	73
Pierce Johnson	NR	NR	NR	NR	~85

It's not entirely fair to use a straight average of the ranks as a consensus, since different lists have varying criteria for inclusion (how to deal with guys who have played in the majors, draftees, etc…). Nonetheless, I think this a fairly accurate, if rough idea of how the players are perceived by the scouting industry at-large. On lists where a particular prospect was not included, I looked in chats and comment sections on each site to see if the rankers gave a specific indication as to where a particular prospect would have landed. I pulled these quickly, so please let me know if you spot any errors or there is a particular list you would like to see added.

In the aggregate, four Cub prospects are in the neighborhood of the top 20: Baez, Almora, Soler, and Bryant, but none are generally considered top 10. Two to four others: Alcantara, Edwards, Johnson, and Olt are decent bets to be in the back half of top 100 rankings in the coming offseason. Of the "Big 8," six have joined the system since Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have taken over.

John Sickels’ 2013 midseason top 75 prospects

Law came out with his earlier today and now it's John Sickels of Minor League Ball's turn. Below are the top Cubs prospects.

14. Javier Baez
18. Albert Almora
23. Jorge Soler
57. Arismendy Alcantara

His list does not include 2013 draftees.

Keith Law’s 2013 midseason top 50 prospects

Keith Law has just published his top 50 prospects at the midway point of the 2013 season. The Cubs have a number of players in that list.

15. Kris Bryant
20. Jorge Soler
25. Albert Almora
27. Javier Baez
One of the honorable mentions is Arismendy Alcantara

That's a lot of talent in the minor leagues. Too bad Mark Appel wasn't available as he's the number 9 prospect in baseball. Not a whole lot of difference between 9 and 15, but Appel's path the big leagues is much clearer.

The Cubs MLB team has sucked for awhile now, but the farm system has definitely improved. Unfortunately, there remains a lack of starting pitching talent in the system that the Cubs will need to address one way or another.

For what it's worth, it sounds like Baseball America agrees that Kris Bryant is now the Cubs top prospect so Law isn't alone.

UPDATE: Law's Top 50 is below

1. Byron Buxton, Twins
2. Oscar Taveras, Cardinals
3. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
4. Miguel Sano, Twins
5. Francisco Lindor, Indians
6. Addison Russsell, A's
7. Carlos Correa, Astros
8. Archie Bradley, Dbacks
9. Mark Appel, Astros
10. Taijuan Walker, M's
11. Dylan Bundy, O's
12. Christian Yelich, Marlins
13. Jameson Taillon, Pirates
14. Kyle Zimmer, Royals
15. Kris Bryant, Cubs
16. Corey Seager, Dodgers
17. Gregory Polanco, Pirates
18. Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays
19. Kevin Gausman, O's
20. Jorge Soler, Cubs
20. Garin Cecchini, Red Sox
22. Nick Castellanos, Tigers
23, Jonathon Gray, Rockies
24. Jackie Bradley, Jr., Red Sox
25. Albert Almora, Cubs
26. Robert Stephenson, Reds
27. Javier Baez, Cubs
28. Eddie Butler, Rockies
29. George Springer, Astros
30. Kohl Stewart, Twins
31. Henry Owens, Red Sox
32. Michael Wacha, Cards
33. Jonathan Singleton, Astros
34. Noah Syndergaard, Mets
35. Taylor Guerrieri, Rays
36. Alen Hanson, Pirates
37. Kyle Crick, Giants
38. Alex Meyer, Twins
39. Jake Marisnick, Marlins
40. Raul Mondesi, Jr. Royals
41. Eddie Rosario, Twins
42. Jessie Biddle, Phillies
43. Luc Giolito, Nats
44. Eduardo Rodriguez, O's
45. Austin Hedges, Padres
46. Mike Foltynecwicz, Astros
47. Andrew Heaney, Marlins
48. Max Fried, Padres
49. Gary Sanchez, Yankees
50. Lucas Sims, Braves

Cubs Prospects on the Rise, June edition

Myles already posted the Cubs prospects who have fallen so now it's time to look at the ones who have risen. We'll also have an updated Cubs top prospects list for you.

3. Pierce Johnson – The 22 year old supplemental first round pick from 2012 is probably a little too old for his level, but he's been dominating. He only logged 11 innings after the draft last year, but started the year in Kane County. He's made the most of it and will be due for a promotion soon.

In 62.2 innings, Johnson has 25.7% of the batters he's faced and walked only 7.1%. He's also kept the ball in the ballpark as he's only given up 4 home runs.

He has given up more hits than you'd like. To be precise, he's given up 63 of them and that's a higher number than you'd like for someone advanced for his level. Despite the impressive control, he's allowed more than 1.3 baserunners per inning due to the number of hits allowed.

There's plenty of reason to be optimistic regarding Johnson, but also reason to be concerned. The large number of hits allowed could be the result of a leaky infield, but I'd have to check out the other pitchers before we could even go there.

While Dave and I did not think that Johnson had the highest ceiling among the pitching prospects in the Cubs organization, we did rate him higher than the others. This was because we thought he had a higher floor and because he was older, would move much more quickly. I can't speak for Dave, but Johnson has moved up simply because some others have dropped.

Dillon Maples has performed poorly when he's healthy, which isn't often. Arodys Vizcaino is injured. The others on our list have yet to make an appearance. So these guys have either stayed where they were or dropped while Johnson's defense independent statistics have been quite good. We'll need to see how he performs at the next level, which we should get a glimpse of this year.

2. Kyle Hendricks – The 23 year old right hander was drafted twice. In 2008 he was taken by the Angels in the 39th round. He went to Dartmouth instead and it paid off. Three years later he was drafted by the Rangers in the 8th round.

He was a reliever his first year with the Rangers, but was so good they moved him to the bullpen and he's continued to be impressive. The Cubs acquired Hendricks, along with Christian Villanueva, for Ryan Dempster last July. He had a rocky start with the Cubs, but has been excellent so far this year.

In 71.1 innings, he's struckout 21.3% of the batters and walked only 5.6%. He has a 2.57 FIP and a more impressive 2.14 ERA. Hendricks throws a ton of strikes and hasn't been hit particularly hard. He's allowed 61 hits this year and only 2 home runs.

He hasn't been known as a top prospect or anything, but he's continued to put up impressive numbers since turning pro. He's not long for AA and should see significant AAA action this season.

1. Arismendy Alcantara – One of the youngest minor leaguers in the system relative to the league's median age, Alcantara has not disappointed. He hasn't just been as good as previously. He's been quite a bit better.

He's currently batting .289/.364/.478 with a .381 wOBA. His wRC+ is 141. While his BABIP is .341, that's right in line with his career average. His walk rate sat below 5% in his first two seasons and climbed to 5.3% a year ago. This year it's nearly double that at 9.8%. He has the best ISO in his career at .189 in large part due to the 9 home runs he's hit in 265 plate appearances.

That's a lot compared to before. Alcantara had hit 9 over the previous two seasons totaling 749 plate appearances. He's hit as many or more doubles than he has in any season in less the playing time too. His speed has not suffered with the addition of the power. He's stolen 16 bases compared to 25 last year. He's on pace to top that figure. He's become an excellent base-stealer.

He was successful 25 of 29 times last year and 16 of 18 so far this year. Since 2012 he's been successful 87.2% of the time.

He's done all this while playing shortstop. I don't see Alcantara pushing Starlin Castro to another position, but if Alcantara continues to play well, we could see him moved to 2nd base and Darwin Barney moved to the bench.

If Alcantara keeps hitting like he has been, he'll probably be due for a promotion around July.

Honorable mention: Christian Villanueva and Javier Baez. Baez hasn't moved up since he was the top prospect and a top 20-30 prospect in baseball. He really has nowhere to go but down. He's being mentioned here because last month he was listed as the player who had fallen the most. He's had a monstrous month since then. I still have the same reservations about him that I did a month ago. He has shown more patience, but he still has a very low walk rate. He's also struckout less so there's been some regression to the mean in both areas. Both are a little higher than you'd like, but no player is perfect.

Christian Villanueva has quietly put together another quality season on offense in AA. His rate stats aren't pretty. You could even look at them and dismiss him, but it's good enough to be quite a bit better than the average hitter (119 wRC+). He's also hit for more power since coming over in the trade last summer. His ISO this year is .175. Vaillanueva has consistently been between 19% and 26% better than the league average hitter. I don't think he really has the tools for that to translate well to MLB, but if you factor in his well above average defense, he's still a nice prospect.

We'll have an updated top prospects list tomorrow afternoon.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-18-13

Tuscon Padres 4 @ Iowa Cubs 2

Chris Rusin threw 6.2 innings, allowed 5 hits and 4 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 3. He also hit a batter. Zack Putnam struckout the only batter he faced. Rafael Dolis gave up 2 hits and struck a batter out in an inning of work. Blake Parker pitched the 9th and allowed a walk and a hit. He struck a batter out.

The I-Cubs only had 6 hits and a walk in this one. Logan Watkins had one of the two extra base hits as he went 1-4 with a double. Ian Stewart also doubled and was 2-4. Donnie Murphy was 2-3.

Tennessee Smokies 7 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 5

Dallas Beeler had another strong outing. He went 6 innings, walked 2 and struckout 6. He gave up 4 hits and 3 runs. Trey McNutt struckout 2 in an inning of work.

All of the position players in the lineup had a hit. The top of the order did this:

Matt Szczur 3-5, double
Ronald Torreyes 2-5, double
Arismendy Alcantara: 3-4, 2 doubles, home run

Jair Fernandez was 2-4 and Anthony Giansanti was 2-4 with a double and a triple.

Daytona Cubs 6 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 5

Zach Cates walked 2 and only struckout 1 in 5.2 innings. He gave up 5 hits and 3 runs. David Cales threw 2.1 innings, allowed 3 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 4. Hunter Cervenka struckout 2 in an inning of work.

The Cubs acquired Cervenka, along with Michael Bowden, in the Marlon Byrd trade with the Red Sox. He’s appeared in 9 games this season and has thrown 17.2 innings. He’s allowed just 7 hits and 4 runs. He’s struckout 16, but he has walked 10. He’s had a tendency to walk a lot of batters so there doesn’t see to be much improvement there. He’ll either need to improve that or he may only have a career of a LOOGY ahead of him.

Zeke DeVoss and Dustin Geiger were 2-5. Geiger doubled. Javier Baez had another good day at the plate going 3-5 with a double. That’s two days in a row he’s had good results. More of it, please.

Jorge Soler continues to rake. He was 2-4 with a walk and a strikeout. Wes Darvill was 3-5.

Kane County Cougars 4 @ Cedar Rapids Kernels 0

Pierce Johnson had his best start of his career last night. He threw 6 innings and struckout 9 batters while walking only 1. He’s having a great year so far. Over 8 starts and 40.2 innings, he’s walked 12 and allowed only 1 home run. He’s struckout 45. Pierce turned 22 a week ago and it won’t be long before he’s in the Daytona rotation if he keeps this up.

Justin Amlung walked 2 and struckout 3 in 2 innings. Jeffry Antigua struckout 2 and and allowed a hit in 1 inning. The Cougars pitchers struckout 14 batters and walked only 3.

Dan Vogelbach and Rock Shoulders were both 2-4. Vogelbach had a double and a strikeout while Shoulders struckout twice and hit his 9th home run of the season. Jeimer Candelario doubled in 4 plate appearances. Oliver Zapata was 3-4 with a home run.

VSL Cubs 3 @ VSL Rays 2

The VSL Cubs had allowed a ton of runs so far. They’ve allowed 22, 8, 15, 15 and now 2 runs. It’s nice to see them play a game that I can be certain is actually baseball.