Tag: austin kirk

Minor League Recap 4-10-14

Three of the Cubs four minor league games got underway this afternoon while Daytona played tonight.

Iowa Cubs

Matt Szczur was 2-4 with a strikeout and run scored. Arismendy Alcantara doubled and had 2 hits in 4 plate appearances. Javier Baez isn’t getting a lot of hits, but he hit his 2nd home run of the season and was 1-4 with a strikeout. Josh Vitters showed he can be patient and walked twice. He was also 1-2 with 2 runs scored. Chris Valaika was also 2-4 with a double.

Kyle Hendricks rebounded after his poor outing last week. He threw 7 strong innings and allowed 5 hits and a run. He walked 1 and struck out 5. Neil Ramirez also didn’t suck in his inning. He gave up a hit and struck a batter out. Blake Parker pitched the 9th and struck out 2 while allowing 1 hit.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies got beat on a 9th inning run by the Lookouts. It was the only run of the game. The Smokies had only 4 hits so this will be easy.

Zeke DeVoss was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts. Stephen Bruno was 1-3 with a double and a walk. Dustin Geiger was also 1-3 with a walk. Wes Darvill had the only other hit (1-4, strikeout).

Jake Arrieta is making his way back to the majors and got a rehab start in. He threw 3.2 innings, allowed 3 hits and no runs. He walked 2 and struck out 4. Lendy Castillo walked a batter and retired a batter. Good outing for him. Dae-Eun Rhee who was highly thought of a couple years ago threw 4.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, a walk and a run. He struck out 3. Tony Zych finished the game and allowed a hit in a third of an inning.

Daytona Cubs

The Cubs got killed. The game was over early and Dunedin went on to win 12-2. Pin-Chieh Chen was 1-4 with a strikeout. He’s off to a good start so far this year and even played some 2nd base tonight. Tim Saunders was 1-4 with an RBI and strikeout. Albert Almora and Dan Vogelbach were each 0-4 while Jeimer Candelario was 1-4. The hot hitter for the night was Bijan Randenmacher who went 3-3 with a BB and run scored. Oliver Zapata was 1-3 with a walk, RBI and run scored.

Taylor Scott had a night to forget. He threw only 3 innings and somehow gave up 11 hits and 3 walks. When you allow nearly 5 base runners per inning, you’re probably going to have a bad night. Scott gave up 8 runs and while only 4 were earned, it’s not like he can point to bad defense. Scott got lit up.

Austin Kirk threw 3.1 and gave up 3 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struck out 2. Austin Reed tried to top Taylor Scott in his 1.2 innings. He gave up 4 hits and walked 2. He allowed 2 runs and struck a batter out. The only decent pitcher on the night was a guy on injury rehab: Arodys Vizcaino. He threw an inning and walked a batter and struck one out.

Kane County Cougars

Danny Lockhart and Carlos Penalver set the table for the Cougars. Each collected 2 hits in 5 AB in the 1-2 slots in the lineup. Lockhart scored twice and struck out while Penalver doubled and scored 3 times.

Yasiel Balaguert was 1-4 with 3 RBI and a walk. Jacob Rogers and Daniel Canela were each 1-5. David Bote was 1-3 with a double, walk and a strikeout. Trey Martin was 1-3 with a run, RBI and walk

Tyler Skulina threw 5.2 innings, gave up 6 hits and 5 runs while walking 1 and striking out 6. Justin Amlung threw 2.1, allowed a hit and a walk while striking out 1 and Tyler Bremer finished the 9th and gave up 2 hits and struck a batter out.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-15-13

Tennessee Smokies 4 @ Jackson Generals 8

Things didn’t fall apart for the Smokies until after starter Eric Jokisch left the game. He pitched 6.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 5. Then Trey McNutt came in and pitched 0.2 innings. He gave up 2 hits and 2 runs. He was followed by Brian Schlitter who also pitched .2 innings. He allowed 3 hits and 4 runs.

Matt Szczur was 1-4 and was caught stealing for the 3rd time. Arismendy Alcantara was 2-3 and so was Jair Fernandez. Fernandez hit a home run and drew a walk. Rubi Silva, Christian Villanueva and Jonathon Mota each added a hit.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 7 @ Daytona Cubs 1

Austin Kirk has had a rough season. He threw 4 innings and gave up 7 hits and 6 runs. He walked 4 and struckout 4. To give you an idea how useless wins and losses for pitchers are, he’s thrown 38 innings this season, given up 46 hits and 24 runs on 7 home runs, 16 walks and 30 strikeouts. Despite being awful, he’s 4-2.

Luis Liria and Sheldon McDonald each threw 2 innings and both of them allowed 3 hits. Each of them struck a batter out. Frank Del Valle pitched the 9th and gave up 2 walks, 2 hits and a run. He struckout 2.

It was another terrible night at the plate for the Daytona Cubs. They had 5 hits and a walk as they scored only 1 run. John Andreoli was 1-3 with a walk. He was drafted in the 17th round in 2011 and turns 23 in June. He’s mostly played LF in his career and has a total of 1 home run. He has played some CF, which will be necessary for him to get to the big leagues. So far this year in 34 games, he’s hit .323/.412/.425. He’s also stolen 10 bases. He only has 8 extra base hits, though.

There were four Cubs who were 1-4: Javier Baez, Dustn Geiger, Ben Carhart and Chadd Krist. The Cubs had no extra base hits. Jorge Soler was 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.

Peoria Chiefs 0 @ Kane County Cougars 4

Taylor Scott and Nathan Dorris combined on a 3-hit shutout against the Chiefs. Scott threw 7.1 innings, allowed 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 2. Dorris pitched the final 1.2 innings and gave up a hit.

The 20-year old Taylor Scott has had a fine start to his 2013 season. The South African was picked in the 5th round of the 2011 draft out of Notre Dame Prep High. He’s not a guy who strikes many out. Last year at Boise he struckout 43 in 71.1 innings. This year he’s struckout 23 in 38.1 innings. He’s walked 15, allowed only 1 home run and given up 30 hits.

Pin-Chieh Chen and Rock Shoulders were each 1-3 with a walk. Shoulders struckout twice and Chen struckout once. Bijan Rademacher, Dan Vogelbach and Willson Contreras were each 2-4.

Jeimer Candelario was 1-4 with a strikeout. Gioskar Amaya was dropped to 8th in the order and went 0-2 with a strikeout. Marco Hernandez was 2-3.

VSL Cubs 7 @ VSL Phillies

I know next to nothing about the VSL team and probably won’t be writing much about them until later on. So check out the box score because I’m going to highlight maybe one person per game for awhile.

Amaldo Cabrera was 3-5 with 3 doubles.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-22-13

Iowa Cubs 5 @ Memphis Redbirds 2

Brooks Raley gave up 5 hits and 2 runs in 5.1 innings. He walked 2 and struckout 3. Zach Putnam, Rafael Dolis and Blake Parker finished the game without allowing any runs. He did give up 3 hits and walked 3 while striking out 5.

1B Brad Nelson was 2-4 with a home run and a strikeout. I expected to be writing his name in these recaps frequently, but he's gotten off to a slow start. Nelson is the perfect example of a quad-A talent.

Brian Bogusevic was 2-4 with a double. Ian Stewart and Logan Watkins were both 1-3 with a double. Watkins also walked twice.

Montgomery Biscuits and Gravy 3 @ Tennessee Little Smokies 9

Eric Jokisch gave up 8 hits and 3 runs, only 1 of which was earned, in 6.1 innings. He struckout 3 and walked 2. He has an impressive 1.11 ERA over his first four starts and this last one was actually his worst. He's struckout 20 and walked 5 over 24.1 innings. He's allowed 19 hits.

Brian Schlitter threw the final 2.2 innings, didn't allow a hit or a run and struck a batter out.

Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a home run. Everyone else in the lineup had one hit with the exception of Ronald Torreyes who went 0-3.

Matt Szczur and Christian Villanueva were each 1-4 with a double. Jae-Hoon Ha and Rafael Lopez were each 1-3 with a double and a walk.

Daytona Cubs 7 @ Dunedin Blue Jays 4

In Austin Kirk's 4th start of the season he threw 5 innings and allowed 4 hits and runs. He also gave up a home run. However, He struckout 8 and walked 2. It was his best strikeout to walk ratio of the season. In 18 innings he's struckout 16 and walked 10.

Zach Cates walked a batter in 1.1 innings. He didn't allow any hits or runs. Hunter Cervenka walked a batter and struckout 2 in 2.2 innings.

Javier Baez had a good day at the plate. He was 3-5 with a double and a strikeout. Over his last 10 he's started to hit, but still has not gotten on base nearly enough. His batting average is just over .300 and his OBP is .289. He's slugged over .550 so he's made up for it, but over that span he has 12 strikeouts and 0 walks. On the season he has 24 strikeouts and 2 walks and a .250ish OBP.

Zeke DeVoss was 0-3 with 2 walks. This guy can get on base. He's struggled a bit over the last 10. His batting average is barely over .200 and his slugging is under .300, but his OBP is over .425.

Dustin Geiger was 3-5 and Jorge Soler was 0-5. That's the first 0-fer I can remember for Soler.

Peoria Chiefs 9 @ Kane County Cougars 6

Michael Heesch is off to a pretty good start this season. He threw 6 innings, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. He walked 2, struckout 5 and did allow a home run. In 3 starts this year, he's thrown 14 innings, allowed 11 hits and 5 earned runs. He has allowed 9 overall runs, a 5 walk and 12 strikeout rate isn't too bad. It's not great by any means, but it could be a lot worse. He's had 2 pretty good starts and a terrible start.

I've known 3 guys in my life named Brian Smith. I met one in high school, another while in Iowa City and the other one in Des Moines. There's a writer on Fangraphs named with the same name, though his name is spelled Bryan. There's also a Brian Smith with the Cougars and he sucked in his most recent outing. He allowed 3 hits, walked 2 and gave up 5 runs though only 1 was earned.

Smith is a left-handed reliever born on December 12, 1992. In 8 innings this year he's walked 7 and struckout 7.

Matt Iannazzo pitched 2.1 innings, gave up 5 hits and walked 3 and escaped while allowing only 2runs.

Dan Vogelbach was 2-4 with a home run and Marco Hernandez was also 2-4. His two hits were doubles. Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-4 with a walk and Gioskar Amaya was 2-5. Jeimer Candelario had 2 walks and a hit in 5 plate appearances.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-17-13

This is a short Cubs minor league recap seeing as the Iowa Cubs and Kane County Cougars were postponed.

Tennessee Smokies 4 @ Huntsville Stars 1

Eric Jokisch struckout 7 and walked none over 6 innings today. He gave up 3 hits and no runs. The 23-year old left-hander is off to a fantastic start in AA. He's thrown 6 innings in each of his three starts and has not allowed more than 4 hits in any of them. He's thrown a total of 18 innings, allowed only 10 hits, walked just 3 and struckout 17. He's allowed 1 home run.

Jokisch was picked in the 11th round in the 2010 Draft out of Northwestern. His strikeout rate prior to reaching AA had been above 20%, but last year in 105 innings he struckout only 14.9% of the batters. He's had pretty good control over his minor league career and if he can get back to the 20% range where he was before last AA a year ago, he could be a valuable prospect.

Zach Rosscup threw 2 scoreless innings and Brian Schlitter allowed an unearned run in the 9th.

The Smokies only had 6 hits and nobody had more than 1. Arismendy Alcantara was 1-1 with 3 walks. He also stole 4 bases today, which gives him 5 on the season. Alcantara only has 3 extra base hits on the season. Two of them have been home runs and the other a double.

Christian Villanueva was 1-3 with a home run and a walk. Justin Bour was 1-2 with a couple of walks.

Daytona Cubs 13 @ Clearwater Threshers 2

Yao-Lin Wang threw 4 innings, gave up 3 hits and a walk. He allowed a run and struckout 2. Austin Kirk pitched the final 5 innings, striking out 4 and walking 2. He allowed 3 hits and a run (a home run).

Javier Baez had one of the best games of his season so far. He was 3-6 with a home run. He has 3 home runs on the season now and most of his hits have been extra base hits. The problem has been getting balls to fall in, which should change. The other problem has been walks and strikeouts and we saw both today. He struckout only once and didn't walk, but here are the number of walks for the 1, 2, and 4 hitters (Baez batted 3rd): 9.

Zeke DeVoss was 1-2 with a double, stolen base and 3 walks. Taiwan Easterling was 1-3 with a double and 3 walks. John Andreoli was 0-2 with 3 walks. The Smokies had 11 walks today.

DeVoss has 12 walks and 10 strikeouts on the season. He's hitting only .245, but his OBP is an impressive .431 and he's slugging .490 to go with it. He's not going to come anywhere close to maintaining his current .245 ISO, but this guy can get on base. A lot. He's been picked off twice in the last two days so he needs to work on that a little bit.

Dustin Geiger was 3-5 with a double and a home run. SS David Bote was 0-3 with a couple walks.

Here's how well the Daytona Cubs have hit so far (through yesterday).

Player: PA, BB%, wOBA, wRC+
Jorge Soler: 27, 14.8%, .546, 254
Stephen Bruno: 51, 9.8%, .473, 205
John Andreoli: 53, 17.0%, .420, 170
Dustin Geiger: 47, 6.4%, .394, 152
Zeke DeVoss: 60, 15.0%, .392, 151
Micah Gibbs, 33, 15.2%, .364, 133
Chad Noble, 26, 7.7%, .339, 116

Loving those walk rates even if it's this early in the season.

Journeymen of Tomorrow: 4-6-13

Iowa Cubs 3 @ Alburquerque Isotopes 8

There’s not a whole lot to like about the Iowa pitching staff. Brooks Raley threw 4 innings, allowed 7 hits and 4 runs. He struckout 3 and walked 2. Soon to be 29 year old Yoanner Negrin struckout 3 and walked 1 over 2 innings of work. Zach Putnam pitched 1.2 innings, allowed 3 hits and 3 runs while Rafael Dolis recorded an out and gave up 2 hits and a run.

Logan Watkins has gotten off to a good start this season. He hit very well the first couple games and last night he was 1-4 with a walk. Brett Jackson’s new swing was 1-4 with a strikeout and I’m not exactly sure why, but he was taken out of the game late. Ryan Sweeney was 3-3 with a walk.

That’s about all that happened for Iowa. They’ve started their season 0-3.

Tennessee Smokies 9 @ Pensacola Blue Wahoos

When I went to bed this game was 1-1 in the 9th inning so I thought the score was a misprint. Turns out the Smokies scored 8 runs in the top of the 12th inning.

Eric Jokisch pitched 6 strong innings. He allowed 3 hits and a run while striking out 7 and walking 2. The Smokies got 6 shutout innings from their bullpen. Kevin Rhoderick pitched 1 inning, Marcus Hatley 2, Frank Batista 2 and Brian Schlitter 1. Only Hatley’s performance is worthy of noting. He struckout 4 and walked 1. The Smokies gave up only 5 hits all night and walked 4 batters.

3 position players had performances worth noting. Matt Szczur was 2-7 with 3 RBI. Jae-Hoon Ha was 3-5 and Christian Villanueva was 2-5. Other than those 3, nothing really happened. Those 3 are also the ones who have been consistently hitting for the Smokies the first 3 games of the year.

Brevard County Manatees 2 @ Daytona Cubs 4

The Cubs had 3 pitchers pitch 3 innings apiece. Austin Kirk started, allowed 4 hits and a couple runs on 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. Yao-Lin Wang replaced him and struckout 4. Frank Del Valle finished the game and struckout 6 and walked 1.

Frank Del Valle was signed in June, 2011 and has been OK so far. His control has been good, but he hasn’t struckout a lot of batters. Maybe last night was the start of an improvement for him, but probably not.

Jorge Soler was 2-3 with a walk and his first home run of the year. He’s gotten off to a fantastic start so far. Stephen Bruno was 2-3 and Tim Saunders was 3-4. Javier Baez was 0-4 and has struggled a bit in this first series.

Quad Cities River Dogs 13 @ Kane County Cougars 10

Jose Arias put this game out of reach early, but somehow the Cougars came back to tie it. Arias allowed 7 hits and 7 runs in 1.2 innings. Nathan Dorris allowed a run in 2.1 innings while striking out 3 and walking 2. Then Ian Dickson mostly kept the game where it was as he threw 5 relief innings and allowed 2 runs, which allowed the Cougars to come back from down 8-1 to tie it in the 9th 10-10. They’d lose in the 13th. Steve Perakslis threw 2 innings, allowed 3 runs on 3 hits.

Rock Shoulders was 4-6 last night. The big game belongs to outfielder Oliver Zapata who was 3-6 with a triple and a home run and 5 RBI. Pin-Chieh Chen, Gioskar Amaya and Jeimer Candelario were each 2-6. Dan Vogelbach was 3-6 with a double. Catcher Willson Contreras was 3-5 with a double and a walk. Poor Marco Hernandez. Guy has been odd man out in this lineup a couple times already. He was 0-6.

The Children Are The Future-Cubs Shit Sponsored by ALCO

Iowa

Josh Vitters took a walk. Move along sir.

Smokies

Kevin Rhoderick and Alberto Cabrera both had good outings in relief. These are two guys you could see up in the majors at some point this year as the Cubs continue to develop relief pitchers and 2nd basemen. Its all part of the plan people.

Daytona

Ronald Torreyes had a 3 hit game and Austin Kirk had another great outing. Kirk has dazzling standard numbers with a 1.54 ERA in 4 starts but he has only struck out 9 batters during that stretch. Anything I have seen on the guy describes his stuff as fringy at best and the FSL is very pitcher friendly so I wouldn't get too excited until he can start missing more bats. 

Peoria

A conversation between DylanJ and God. DylanJ- God is it too much to ask that a single player do something worth noting to help me write these fucking things? God- Yes it is. Go fuck yourself. 

So there you have it. Nobody did anything worth wasting my time on. Go to bed.

 

Checking up on the Cubs top prospects, part 1

A month ago I took a look at how the Cubs top prospects (ratings from John Sickels) were doing and the final part was a form for you so we could have our own top prospect list. The final part in this series will be those results. I know you’ve waited on pins and needles for them so you won’t have to wait much longer.

20) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C: Very effective against runners, has some power, but on-base skills are sketchy.

Castillo has only had about 60 plate appearances since we last checked in. I’m not sure if he’s been injured or what. He’s hitting .315/.376/.589 in over 200 PA at AAA this season. He kind of reminds me of Geovany Soto in terms of development.

Below is a list of Soto’s triple slash lines from age 18-24 and what level he was at:

18 Rk .260/339/.387
19 Rk & A-, .273/.335/.416
20 A+, .242/.313/.316
21 AA .271/.357/.342
22 AAA .253/.357/.342
23 AAA .272/.353/.386
24 AAA .353/.424/.642 

Here’s what Castillo has done in his career:

19 Rk A- .188/.257/.188 (36 PA)
20 A- .271/.334/.423
21 A+ AA AAA .287/.337/.383
22 AA .232/.275/.386
23 AAA .255/317/.498
24 A+ AAA .301/.367/.522 (42 rehab PA at Daytona)

Soto was about a year ahead of Castillo, but neither catcher had impressive numbers until their age 24 season. Early on it looked as though both catchers would have to field their position excellently to get by at the big league level, but by age 23 for Soto, it appeared as though he had plenty of power to play every day behind the plate. Castillo has clearly shown that AAA is too easy.

I’m not saying that Castillo is going to have as successful a career as Soto has had, but it’s just something that I’ve noticed this season. Both took off at age 24. Soto has still been inconsistent at the big league level with the stick so take the comparison for what it’s worth (not much). 

19) Ben Wells, RHP, Grade C: Hasn’t pitched  yet, but seventh round pick from Arkansas high school has potential as a hard-throwing starter.

Wells scouting report at the time he was drafted by Baseball America said this about him:

Ben Wells pitched at 84-87 mph most of his amateur career, but by the end of this spring he was throwing 90-94 mph and pitching a five-inning perfect game in the state 7-A championship game. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound righthander has a good feel for pitching, too, as he pounds the strike zone with a three-pitch mix that also includes a hard slider and splitter. He committed to Crowder (Mo.) JC and now is drawing attention from Southeastern Conference schools. Wells has the size and stuff to go in the first five rounds of the draft, though he may not have been scouted extensively enough to go that high.

Wells doesn’t turn 19 for over a month and in 41.2 short-season A ball innings he’s allowed 44 hits, struckout 30 and walked 14. The walk rate is good, but hitters aren’t having any difficulty getting base hits against Wells and he’s having a little trouble striking them out. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher (2.44 GO/AO). 

18) Jin-Young Kim, RHP, Grade C+: Will he be worth the big bonus?

Things have gotten worse for Kim since we last checked in. He’s allowed 38 hits in 24.1 short-season A ball innings. He’s allowed 4 home runs, walked 15 and struckout only 16. Only one time this season has he not allowed any runs. In his second appearance he threw 3.2 innings, allowed 5 hits, walked 1 and struckout 2. Not exactly an impressive outing by any means. His best outing other than that one was a 4 inning appearance in which he allowed 7 hits, walked 1 and struckout 2. 

17) Austin Kirk, LHP, Grade C+: Breakthrough candidate for 2011.

Kirk is having another solid season though last time we checked in he had gotten roughed up in his three previous starts and that trend has continued. Overall he’s thrown 118 innings at Peoria and allowed only 94 hits, walked just 27 and has struckout 101. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but his control is excellent. I don’t know how his skills will translate to the next level or levels, but it’s always nice to see a young pitcher in the Cubs organization who throws strikes. 

16) Su-Min Jung, RHP, Grade C+: Wasn’t great at Peoria, but I think he can get better faster than people anticipate.

After walking 24 and striking out only 19 in 43.2 innings at Peoria, he was sent back to Boise. It hasn’t gone any better there either. He’s walked 16 batters, struckout only 8 and has allowed 9 runs in 10.2 innings. 

15) Brooks Raley, LHP, Grade C+: Was very effective in the second half.

Raley has LOOGY written all over him. Never a strikeout pitcher, Raley has struckout just 54 in 104 innings at AA. He’s walked 37 and allowed 13 home runs. Raley doesn’t strike many out, batters don’t have any trouble getting base hits or home runs and he doesn’t have excellent control, though it’s not bad. At the age of 23, I expect we’ll see Raley moved to Iowa next year and put in the bullpen. It’s hard to imagine there’s a future there as a starter. There may not even be one as a LOOGY. 

14) Brett Wallach, RHP, Grade C+: Another one (live arm, needs polish).

The Cubs acquired Wallach when they traded Ted Lilly to the Dodgers last year. Remember when the Cubs had a ton of strikeout pitchers who had a very high ceiling? Yeah, those days are gone. Wallach is yet another starter who doesn’t strike many batters out. He’s struckout 71 in 91 High A innings. He’s walked 34 so his command isn’t bad, but there’s probably not a large enough difference between K% and BB% for him to be a serious candidate for the rotation in the future. He turns 23 in December.

13) Rafael Dolis, RHP, Grade C+: Another guy in the live arm/needs polish brigade.

Converted to closer after 4 AA starts, he hasn’t been that impressive. On the season at AA he’s struckout only 6.6 batters per 9 and walked over 4 per 9. He does keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark, but his strikeouts will only continue to decline as he moves up the system while his walks go the opposite direction. He’ll turn 24 in January and spend most or all of 2012 in Des Moines.

12) D.J LeMahieu, INF, Grade C+: I think people are a bit too down on him; he could surprise this year.

After breaking out in AA earlier this season, he was called up to Chicago out of necessity. After being sent back to AAA, things have not gone well. in 121 PA he’s hit .278/.306/.330 for the I-Cubs. LeMahieu just turned 23 so he’s another guy who is going to spend most or all of 2012 in AAA. He needs to work at getting on base without requiring a hit to do so.

11) Marquez Smith, 3B, Grade C+: Not young, but ready to help at the major league level and can catch people off-guard.

It seems rare to me that there’s a guy who has consistently hit as well as Smith has who has never gotten a shot at a big league job. It’s not just the Cubs either. He was available in last year’s Rule 5 and no team even took a flyer on him. The consensus seems to be that there’s little Smith can do to make up for whatever deficiency there is that we’re not seeing in the numbers. It’s not defense as he’s known as a good defender. It’s not like he’s a left fielder or 1st baseman. He plays 3rd base and could easily switch to 2nd if needed. Like I said last time, whatever it is that’s holding Smith back is something that we can’t see, but it’s obviously present. 

Continue reading “Checking up on the Cubs top prospects, part 1”

Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 4

Over the last week we’ve looked at the top 20 Cubs prospects according to John Sickels and how they’re performing this season. We’ve also looked at 15 or 16 additional players worthy of some discussion for one reason or another. Many of the 2010 draft picks, especially the high school ones, have very little playing time to their name. Few of the 2011 draft picks have any playing time and less than 20 of the 50 have been signed.

I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may been wrong. The farm system does appear to be in better shape than I had thought.

The Cubs top prospect, Brett Jackson, is having another great season. Strikeouts are an issue, but he’s getting on base, which is what he’s going to be asked to do at the big league level as he’ll almost certainly be the leadoff hitter. Jackson has needed little to no time to adjust to new levels throughout his professional career and has shown the potential of being a very productive player.

Trey McNutt, the highest ranked pitching prospect entering the season, has suffered some injuries, but none of them arm-related. It hard to figure out too much when looking at his stats when you consider the blister problems as well as the performance after coming back from a collision. He’s not even thrown 50 innings yet.

Ryan Flaherty is hitting the ball exceptionally well. DJ LeMahieu has even done the same and was promoted to the big leagues to sit on the bench for awhile. Robert Whitenack emerged early this season as the breakout performer in the organization only to have his season cut short with elbow surgery.

Jeffrey Beliveau has continued to improve his control while also striking out a ton of batters. He’s very difficult to hit and even righties have struggled against him. He looks like a late-inning reliever for sure. Chris Rusin is in AAA now and has the best control in the organization. He’s not a top of the rotation starter, but if he continues to progress, he could provide some value at the backend of the rotation. Nicholas Struck is only 21 years old and already in AAA. He has more potential than Rusin and considering his age for the levels he’s played in, it’s difficult to estimate his true talent level going forward, but he’s more than held his own against older competition.

Austin Kirk has been ridiculously tough to hit and Matt Szczur has hit everything he’s seen. It seems clear the organization is in a better position than I initially thought.

While there are still no impact players, the system does have a number of players who could contribute some value in the near future.

I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may have been too kind previously. The farm system appears to be in worse shape than I had thought.

Brett Jackson’s strikeouts haven’t held him back thus far, but he’s going to have BABIP his way to a decent batting average at the big league level. He’ll walk plenty so his OBP will still be solid, but it could easily be league average or worse. He’s going to strikeout more at the big league level than he has so far, which is not a good sign. He’ll also walk less, have less power, his defense will be worse and there’s already discussion about whether or not he can remain in CF. A leadoff hitter, which is what the Cubs have him pegged as, who doesn’t get on base at an above average rate would be terrible for any offense. If he has to move to a corner, much of his value is gone. There are a lot of question marks with Jackson.

Trey McNutt has had a number of blister issues and a collision that has kept his inning total to less than 50 and those 50 have been unimpressive to just plain bad. His strikeouts declined after his late-season promotion last year and they’ve continued to decline even further. His current strikeout rate leaves one little reason to hope he’ll be anything more than a bullpen arm and maybe not even a good one at that. We already saw what a big decline in strikeouts did to Jay Jackson when he got to AAA.

While Ryan Flaherty continues to hit, he also continues to be passed over for other players like DJ LeMahieu. He’s without a position having played less than half his games at 2nd base. He’s old for his level and the only time he’s been challenged was at the beginning of the 2010 season and he failed miserably.

Beliveau has excellent strikeout numbers and a good walk rate. He’ll more than likely provide value to the Cubs in the future, but they already have Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall at the backend of their bullpen. Beliveau’s value will be limited. At 21, Nicholas Struck is already at AAA, but at 5-11, 185, endurance becomes an issue. Beyond that, he’s allowed nearly a hit per inning and struckout only 7.1 per 9. Solid numbers overall, but not a top of the rotation or even a middle of the rotation pitcher in the future.

Robert Whitenack emerged early as this season’s breakout pitcher, which kind of says enough as it is. Anyway, after his fantastic start, he went down with a torn elbow ligament and will miss a year. Chris Rusin has been solid, but again, he’s a backend of the rotation starter and that’s if he progresses as one would expect.

Matt Szczur has little to no power, but makes a lot of contact. He has decent on-base skills, but even if he progressed as one would expect, he’s no impact player and he’s years away from making any impact anyway.

Alberto Cabrera, ranked 10th by Sickels, has been bad. Number 9 prospect Austin Reed has given up more than a hit per inning at Boise. Number 8 prospect Robinson Lopez strikes out less than 6.5 per 9. Josh Vitters, ranked 7th, hasn’t got a chance in hell of being a Major League player. At number 5 is Hayden Simpson. After getting rocked at Peoria, he’s getting rocked in Rookie League. Jay Jackson was number 4. Enough said. Christopher Carpenter was number 3 and he’s now a reliever so yawn. We already talked about Trey McNutt and Brett Jackson.

Marquez Smith is number 11 and nobody even wanted him in the Rule 5 Draft. DJ LeMahieu is 12th. No power whatsoever. On-base skills are lacking. At 13th was Rafael Dolis and he’s now a reliever and only Ok considering he’s been at AA for awhile now. Brooks Raley is 15th and he strikes out fewer batters than Casey Coleman. Su-Min Jung isn’t any good.

If there weren’t a dozen or more players in the top 20 who have fallen flat on their faces this season, you could bet good money some of them would be out of the top 20. As it is, most probably remain in the top 20 because they’ve all sucked.

It’s true the organization has had some risers this season, but they’ve had more decline. Plus, even the ones who have risen have decent potential. None of them are impact players.

Tim Wilken has had 5+ years to do something with this organization and we get this?

Continue reading “Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 4”

Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 3

We’ve taken an extensive look at the top 20 Cubs prospects this season by Sickels so it’s time to look at some others who weren’t ranked.

John Gaub

Gaub is coming of a season in which he walked almost a batter per inning and allowed a tons of runs, but this season he’s been pretty good. His strikeouts are through the roof. He has Marmol-esque strikeout potential. He’s struckout 54 in 36.1 innings, but his command is what has held this 26 year old back. He’s also walked 23 at AAA. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Gaub get a call-up at some point later in the season. The Cubs are still trying to win games so, you know, moving on to the more important things of trying to figure out what you can and can’t do next season will just have to wait until they’re no longer trying to win games.
Continue reading “Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 3”

Cubs Minor League Progress

mb21 recently had a blog post about fangraphs Cubs top 10 prospects. As the season has progressed, I’ve become increasingly interested in the farm and less with the ML club. I wanted to give updates and some subjective analysis to those who don’t know much about the farm, but are interested enough to read an overview of their seasons so far. I’ll do my own “top 10” with some notes about players I don’t consider part of the top 10.

Note: after the top 2 prospects, every single prospect and their respective position in the top 10 is very debatable.

1. Brett Jackson (OF) AA Tennessee Smokies – mb did a pretty good write up on him. He has been walking to the tune of a 17.3% walk rate, stealing bases efficiently (85% success rate), playing solid defense, and hitting for some power (.223 ISO). Basically doing it all before he jammed his pinky finger while getting picked off of 2B recently. Make no doubt about it, unless he completely falls off, he will be in CF for Cubs no later than July 31st.

2. Trey McNutt (RHP) AA Tennessee Smokies – When not battling blisters, McNutt has been just as effective as last year except at a higher level. So far, he has a 2.29 ERA and 2.44 FIP. He’s not striking out as many batters this year, but that may have to do with the blisters. He’s yet to give up a HR in 19+ innings. I assume he’ll receive some kind of Josh Beckett treatment to stop the blisters eventually. Hopefully it won’t take away too many starts this year.

3. Austin Kirk (LHP) A Peoria Chiefs – Kirk was a 3rd round pick in the 2009 draft out of high school. This year he broke camp with Peoria. Since then, he’s been lights out. FIP doesn’t like him (3.06) but his ERA is a mere 1.80 thanks to a 0.86 WHIP and .207 BABIP. He has a mid-90s fastball with above average secondary pitches. He is supposedly a great character kid. He’ll be in Daytona sometime in June.

UPDATE (5/18): Kirk pitched 5.1 innings, 1 hit, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 Ks

4. Ryan Flaherty (IF/OF) AA Tennessee Smokies – See the trend at AA? If you get a chance, I would go see them play. Flaherty is hitting with all kinds of power this year. His slash: .299/.364/.575. 9 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 HRs gives him a .273 ISO. That will likely regress as the season goes on.  However, it’s not out of the realm of possibility he maintains a .230+ ISO. He has Derosa-like versatility as he’s played 6 positions already for Tennessee. He’s cooled a bit since May, but if he can even have a .800 OPS at the ML-level he would be extremely valuable next year.

5. Robert Whitenack (RHP) AA Tennessee Smokies – Whitenack started at A+ Daytona and just owned hitters. He had 11 K 0 BB game at Daytona. At Daytona he had a laughable 25:1 K to BB ratio. He was promoted at the end of April. He’s been solid at AA so far. His walks are up and Ks are down likely because of the increase in talent. The biggest reason I have him here is because his sinker has apparently become plus-plus. He’s 6’5” and his sinker has heavy sink at 89-93 mph. He ditched his knuckle-curve that was supposedly his best pitch coming out of high school (graded 80 on 80-20 scale). It’s always nice to have groundball pitchers in the minors. He’s a little old, but he’s made large strides and AZ Phil called he would perform like this in ST.

UPDATE (5/18): Whitenack threw 7 innings, 3 hits, 2 BB, 0 R, 5 K.

6. Jae-Hoon Ha (OF) AA Tennessee Smokies – Ha just got promoted to AA where he’s playing CF while Brett Jackson in on the DL. He’ll remain at AA when Jackson gets back. At Daytona, Ha hit for a ton of power and good average. His patience needs work to say the least (heard that before). He walked 7 times in 160 plate appearances at Daytona (4.4% BB%). His slash of .311/.344/.523 keeps his OPS at good levels. Like many in the Cubs system, if he doesn’t hit for a high average he’s not good. He plays all the OF spots. His power potential is uncertain as I’ve heard anywhere from 15-30+ HRs.

7. Matt Szczur (CF) A Peoria Chiefs – Szczur was a two sport athlete at Villanova (football and baseball). He led the Villanova football team to a DI-AA title in 2009. At Peoria this year, he’s hit .320/.398/.369. He’s got great patience and steals bases very efficiently (90% success). I have a hard time believing his ISO will stay sub-.050. He’ll never be a power hitter, but I don’t think his bat will be like Theriot or Juan Pierre either. Oh yeah, he’s pretty good in CF.

8. Josh Vitters (3B) AA Tennessee Smokies – So, basically Vitters has sucked so far. But I’m not ready to give up on him although he’s giving plenty of reasons. He’s still not walking. He’s not hitting for enough power to offset that. Slash: .236/.281/.409. It’s looking more and more that he’s not going to be an everyday player at 3B. His defense has never been good (although reports have him at average this year compared to bad in years past). His bat was supposed to make up for that. His Ks are way down (7.1%). And his BABIP is a low .221. He’s either extremely unlucky or making weak contact. He’ll be better than he is currently, but the future doesn’t look bright. Then consider the fact that I’ve never heard praises about his work ethic. He seems to be trying to get by on talent alone.

9. Chris Carpenter (RHP) AAA Iowa Cubs – Carpenter has been in the pen fulltime since the end of the I-Cubs season. As a starter his fastball was mid-90s. In the pen, he’s been clocked at 100+. However, he’s had his trouble with walks which led to 2 bad outings in relief so far (boosted his ERA up to 6.41). I normally don’t like to put relief pitchers in the top 10 unless they are future closers/set-up men. His stuff makes me believe he can be a set-up/closer. He’s also very close to being in the majors.

10. D.J. LeMahieu (2B/3B) AA Tennessee Smokies – D.J. has split time almost evenly between 2B and 3B. He has seen a jump in his OPS (.882) because of his increase in AVG (.354)  and ISO (.143 – thanks to 12 doubles). BA called him the best hitting prospect in the Cubs organization (quite debatable IMO). D.J. attended “Camp Colvin” so they may explain the increased ISO. He only hit 2 HRs last year and has 2 this year. There are scouts who think his lack of quickness limits him to 3B and not 2B. He will have to keep up his current ISO for his bat to play there (especially if Barney and Castro are still here when he comes up).

Other notables:

Hayden Simpson (RHP) A Peoria Chiefs – As mb explained, his velocity is down likely due to his 20 lb weight loss from mono. If his fastball doesn’t get back up to 92-93 he’s not going to have much of a ceiling. He does have 4 average to above average pitches, but with none that stand out he is looking to prove that Wilken got a 3rd round talent in the 1st.

Reggie Golden (COF) EXST – Golden has the most raw power in the system. He came out as a high schooler last year, but got hurt in rookie ball. I expected BIG things from him this year. Unfortunately he showed up to spring training fat and out of shape, hence why he’s at extended spring training. He’ll likely be in Boise when their season starts.

Jay Jackson (RHP) AAA Iowa Cubs – Jay Jackson has 2 strong outings in AAA after recovering from an injury he received in spring training. But since then, he’s pitched very poorly. 26 ER in 16.2 IP. It’d be nice for him to bounce back so Doug Davis and Casey Coleman don’t pitch anymore. Jay spent a whole season at AAA last year so he should be ready, but he clearly has to figure something out.

Rafael Dolis (RHP) AA Tennesee Smokies – Dolis started the season as a starter. The Cubs scrapped that idea after 4 starts. Kind of disappointing to me because he wasn’t terrible. He’s now in relief where he’s been for awhile.

Evan Crawford (CF) A+ Daytona – Before the season, he looked to have a ceiling of 5th OF to be used as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. So far this year he’s hit everything in sight. He is a speedster and steals bases successfully 85% of the time. He was received in the Mike Fontenot trade. He’s only walking 5.5% of the time so with his speed you’d like to see that increase. He actually has an acceptable ISO for his career because of his ability to stretch out 2B and 3B. With the Giants last year he slugged 12 2B and 12 3B. His current slash: .348/.419/.470. Most likely he’s a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

Kyler Burke (LHP) EXST – You may know Burke as the former 1st round pick of the Padres. He has a great 2009, but fell off the map last year. In the OF he had the best arm in the system. He was both a pitcher and OF in high school and some scouts had him higher as pitcher. After Burke’s flop last year (.607 OPS in 567 PA) the Cubs have convinced him to try pitching. Keep an eye on him when Boise’s season starts. He’s still only 22, throws very hard, and is skilled with his secondary pitches according to AZ Phil.

The Cubs minor league system has gotten off to a fast start. If this keeps up we’re probably top 12-15 in the MLB. Now just imagine if the Cubs still had HJ Lee, Brandon Guyer, and Chris Archer still. We’d probably be top 10.

Continue reading “Cubs Minor League Progress”