Tag: better know a cub

Better Know a Cub: Jason Hammel

After the Cubs missed on Masahiro "We think he's a No. 3 Starter – Cashman" Tanaka, the Cubs went to a fall back plan. They signed Jason Hammel to a 1-year, $6 million dollar deal. Hammel, who has been good at times and bad most others, is a classic pump-and-dump candidate a la Feldman/Baker/numerous others. Do you remember the Scott Hairston era? Me neither. In any case, Hammel comes to Chicago after an awful 2013 (ERA 4.97, but he was unlucky; his FIP was only 4.96). Will he rebound in the Windy City?

Pedigree

Jason Hammel was drafted by the Devil Rays in the 10th round of the 2002 draft. He was drafted by the Devil Rays in 2001 as well (in the 19th round), and they continued to like him. He started his professional career in Rk/A- ball, and he was underwhelming then. He wasn't really anything special until 2004, where he pitched the lights out in Bakersfield at A+ ball (1.89 ERA in 71.1 innings). After a strong showing in 2005 that culminated in 10 starts at AAA Durham, Hammel was named the #79 prospect by Baseball America: 

…Hammel's lively fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range and gets on hitters quickly thanks to his tremendous extension. He also throws a hard curveball in the 75-79 mph range, and he has shown considerable improvement with his changeup. He has the best command in the system. Hammel's curveball is inconsistent. While his fastball has good life down in the zone, it straightens out when he leaves it up … He should be a significant building block as a middle-of-the-rotation starter in the Rays' building project.

Hammel was called up for 9 starts in 2006 and they were awful. He had a 7.77 ERA and a 1.864 WHIP. In 2007, he split time between starting in Durham and starting/relieving in Tampa Bay. The results at the major league level weren't much better. In 2008, his last year with the Rays org, he relieved almost exclusively and was just about league-average. He was traded to Colorado for Aneury Rodriguez where he was a league-average starter, and afterwards was then traded to Baltimore for Jeremy Guthrie. His first year in Baltimore was a huge success: he started only 20 games, but in those 118 innings he had a 3.43 ERA, good for an ERA+ of 123. It was predicated on a substantial gain on his strikeout percentage (22.9%, by far his greatest number). Hammel suffered an elbow injury (inflammation) in 2013 which is maybe partially to blame for his bad season; the fact remains that his strikeouts fell 7.2% and his LD% increased 3.3%. That's a recipe for disaster. Hammel made $6.75 million last year (his last of arbitration). He had to settle for a $6 million prove-it deal this offseason, in a fairly mediocre class of pitching.

Pitch Selection

Pitch (2013) velo % lefties %righties h-break v-break
4FB 93.0 34.2 34.3 -3.9 9.6
SIN 92.7 28.2 23.8 -7.2 7.5
CRV 86.1 12.6 7.2 -7.3 5.2
SLD 84.7 13.0 32.3 3.9 -1.1
CH 77.2 12.2 2.4 7.4 -7.4

Number c/o Brooks Baseball

Hammel throws as hard as he did when he entered the league, but his release point keeps getting higher and higher. While he uses his changeup against lefties much more often than he does against righties, they still crush the pitch when they hit it (that's common among off-speed offerings). The slider is more of a traditional 3 to 9 offering and very effective against same-side batters (Hammel is right-handed). 

Stuff

Hammel can throw in the low-90s, but he isn't going to overpower you. Instead, Hammel will try to induce weak contact. When Jason is his most effective, he is a ground-ball pitcher (53.2% in 2012, by far his best year and GB rate). He'll strike out around 16.6% of his batters and walk about 7.9%. That's a little worse than average in walks and a good deal worse in average in K% (7.4% and 18.9%, respectively). 

Summary

The best thing I can say for Hammel is that he's moving from the AL East to the NL Central. We have at least an idea how that exchange will go (it was worth 20 points of FIP and 81 points of ERA to Feldman, who coincidentally made the exact reverse transition). Hammel had a putrid year last year and elbow issues mean that it could just be who he is now. That being said, 2012 wasn't that long ago, and you only need a guy like Jason to put together 100 solid innings before you turn him over for the next Jake Arrieta or Pedro Strop. Given the paucity of proven talent at the backend of the Cubs' rotation, Hammel will get every chance to realize that value. I have to openly wonder if the upside is really there, though. In my opinion, I'd much rather give that half-season of starts to someone who has a future with the Cubs (Justin Grimm or Kyle Hendricks). We'll wait and see.

 

Better Know a Cub: Jose Veras

As GW astutely pointed out, the 2014 Cubs are headhunting directly from the 2013 Astros bullpen. On the surface, that sounds terrible. In practice, the Cubs have poached the only two good members of that pen, for a collective $5 million and change. $4 million of that this year will go to Jose Veras, the "closer" of the Astros last season (one openly wonders if having 51 save opportunities all year actually makes one a "closer"). If the market rate for a win is $6 million, than we'd hope Veras provides around .7 wins above replacement in the coming year. Is that feasible?

Pedigree

Jose Enger Veras was signed by the Devil Rays as an AFA in 1998 (Veras was 18 at the time). After spending '98 and '99 in various Rookie leagues (Gulf Coast and Appalchian), Jose saw his first full-season work in Charleston of the Sally League. He struggled has a starter all the way until 2004; he then took to a reliever's role for Texas in 2005 (he was a 6-year minor league FA after the 2004 season. At 25, Veras saw his first cup of coffee with the Yankees (he closed for AAA Columbus that year); he was serviceable in 11 innings for the big club. He bounced up and down between AAA and MLB until he was finally bought by the Indians…who promptly cut him loose after the 2009 season. He would yo-yo one last season, with the Marlins, in 2010, before staying in the Majors for good. Veras spent 2011-2013 as a high-K, high-BB flamethrower, usually in the 7th or 8th but closing for Houston until a midseason trade sent him to Detroit. 

Pitch Selection

Veras has 3 pitches. He leans on his 4-seam fastball, which he threw 53% of the time last year. It's slowing down, going from 96.0 in 2007 to 94.1 in 2013 (itself a loss of .3 MPH from last year). It breaks equally hard down and in on the hands of righties and has become a real weapon against righties in the past few years. Against righties, he'll also throw a curve to keep hitters off the heat. The curve averages 77.5 mph (again, down from a peak of 80.1). It's a really slurvy curve, diving well away from righties. You can just imagine Alfonso Soriano striking out to this pitch. In fact, let's call it a slurveball, because that's what it is. Against lefties only, Veras will also flash a changeup. It's actually a nifty pitch, and it works perfectly off the fastball (same horizontal break, a little more dip). It's the out pitch against lefties and it does the job. 

Stuff

Veras has the arsenal to get lots of swings and misses. He has a career 23.9% strikeout percentage. That's really nifty; unfortunately, the attached 12.0% walk rate is an extreme liability. The resultant 12% outlay of K%-BB% is the league average, which makes Veras essentially a league-average pitcher. Lo and behold, his FIP- is 99. To Veras' credit, he keeps the ball in the park and strands above his fair share, which gives him a hand up. Crazily enough, Veras has a career BABIP of .266. That is extremely lucky, and honestly I don't know what to make of it. Good…job?

Summary

Jose Veras was signed to presumably battle it out with Pedro Strop for the closer's job next year. Normally, I'd say I trust that Theo won't let the payrolls make a difference, but who am I kidding. The Cubs acquired Veras to pump and dump. He yielded Danry Vazquez and David Paulino last year, a formidable return if you're high on Vazquez (and you could make a case for him). Given that Veras is 4 MM this year with a 5.5 MM option (essentially), he could potentially yield a good deal more. If the Cubs are sneakily competitive (and a Tanaka/Choo signing can make that happen), he's definitely in the mix to close games legitimately as well. All told, this isn't a move that has a lot of risk or upside, and those are the kind of moves that this FO has been keen on making for 3 years running.

 

 

 

 

Better Know A Cub: George Kottaras

George Kottaras and Theo Epstein have a history. Acquired in 2006 for 5 starts of David Wells, Kottaras spent the first few years of his career as a top catching prospect, with great patience, moderate pop, and the ability to play passable defense. As time took hold of George, he lost most of those talents, and all of his star power with them. What's left is a guy who walks and strikes out with high frequency and does little else. Is that enough to warrant a spot on the 25-man roster?

Offense

There are one and a half interesting wrinkles to George's game. The half is his underrated power. The league average ISO for a catcher last year was .143 (oddly enough, that is also the league rate in general). Last year, Kottaras had an ISO of .190, and his career rate is .192. When Kottaras hits the ball, it's generally a long way. The interesting part of his profile, though, is how little he actually does make contact. Kottaras struck out 33.3% of PA last season, and walked 19.0% of the time. That's correct: he didn't make contact 66 times last season, and made contact 60 times (and 5 of those were HR). That's a TTO that would make Adam Dunn blush. On his career (only 820 ML PA), he's the owner of a 13.5% walk rate and a 26.0% strikeout rate. He also averages 24.8 HR per 700 PA. Add it all up, and you might wonder why a guy with a .324 career OBP (and .351/.349 numbers his last two seasons) hasn't had an opportunity to start.

The answer is his batting average. Last season, it was .180. The career slash for the Greek is .214/.324/.406. Honestly, I don't care at all what his batting average is, but it's hard for a manager to see a guy that doesn't get a hit most days he plays (he had a hit in only 18 of his 46 games last year, and never more than one) and want to pencil him in every day. It's perhaps a backwards way of thinking, but it's still there. He also has catcher speed, so his walks mean slightly less than they might with someone who could take 3rd on more singles and so forth. Even with Kottaras' power and OBP skill, he slots firmly at the bottom of a lineup, where there aren't many chances for him to actually come around to score (but that's not exactly his fault).

The plan is almost certainly to start Kottaras against the tougher righties; his career slash against RH starters is .228/.334/.431 compared to a .154/.284/.300 clip on lefties starters. On the other hand, Welington's numbers against righties are essentially identical, so it might just make sense to slot Kottaras in every third day, taking care to avoid lefties, and not worry about "exposing" Castillo against righties. 

Defense

This is what doesn't make sense to me. Looking at FanGraphs, Kottaras grades pretty highly defensively. He's been consistently worth over a win with the glove. However, if you look at George's CS rates, they are among the worst for the position over the past half a decade. I could steal reliably on George Kottaras. In fact, he is 33% worse than the league average goalie. That's likely a primary driver for Kottaras' consistenly poor FRAA on baseball prospectus. Without having seen him personally, I can't attest to his framing skills or how he calls a game, but the general consensus I've felt is that he's pretty well thought-of with respect to calling a game. 

Summary

When you combine a poor batting average with an a noodle at backstop, you can make the case that Kottaras should linger in AAA all season. When you combine a 13.5% BB with a .192 ISO, you start to wonder why George doesn't start. Put it all together, and you have the platonic ideal of a backup; someone who is opposite-handed of your starter (Castillo is a righty), who has tools you can play up and serious deficiencies that prevent him from otherwise starting, and a guy who isn't likely to make much more than $1.4 million. I fully expect Kottaras to break camp as the No. 2 C, and play there acceptably all year. 

Better Know a Cub: Nate Schierholtz

When Nate Schierholtz signed with the Cubs, he was coming off of two pretty identical seasons:

        G PA AB         HR           AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+            
2011 27 SFG NL 115 362 335 42 93 22 1 9 41 7 4 21 61 .278 .326 .430 .756 114 144 5 4 0 2 3
2012 28 TOT NL 114 269 241 20 62 8 5 6 21 3 2 23 46 .257 .321 .407 .728 104 98 1 1 1 3 2

That was good enough to garner a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar contract. In 2012, he was strictly used as the dominant half of a platoon and it showed: Nate had an .826 OPS against righties but a putrid .444 against lefthanders. It's important to note that he only received 269 PA, though. His split in 2011 was similarly severe: he hit .801 against righthanders and .562 against southpaws (again, OPS). What's interesting about that harsh split is that it's a recent development, though. His career numbers are .739/.703, so the past two years have basically made the entirety of the difference.

When the Cubs signed him, they made sure to go out and get someone to hit lefties to platoon with him (Scott Hairston). This season, the goal with Nate is clear: start him against righties whenever possible, and spin him into long-term assets at the trade deadline (The Giants traded Schierholtz + at the deadline for Hunter Pence last year). We'll see whether or not that ends up happening, but the plan itself is sound.

Offense

As noted, Schierholtz has a harsh platoon in recent years. The last time he hit a HR of a lefthander was in 2009 (when he actually had a reverse platoon split). Generally speaking, though, Schierholtz is going to provide a .260/.320/.420 line from RF. That's the equivalent, funny enough, of a Hunter Pence or Will Venable. These aren't guys we would consider all-stars at RF, or even average; I'd agree with that consensus. Schierholtz, even when platooned correctly, just isn't an offensive force. His career ISO is .141; David DeJesus' last year was .140. He doesn't draw a considerable amount of walks; his 6.2% mark is firmly well below the MLB average of 8.5%.

Schierholtz makes contact at a rate higher than the average MLB player, but he also swings more often. This would normally have the unfortunate effect of abbreviating his P/PA; however, he fouls off a much greater percentage of balls than the average player (32% to 27%). This helps drive up P/PA: his last 3 full seasons have had marks of 3.87, 3.97, and 4.00, all higher than the MLB average of 3.81. Nate has a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, but also swings at pitches inside the zone with a pretty great frequency (the average is around 62%; his average is around 70%). All of these things point to a guy who is likely not walking a lot or striking out a lot. This means, of course, that BABIP is the supreme arbiter of the quality of his seasons. He's looked good this year, but his BABIP has been .353.

Schierholtz enjoys hitting changeups and cut fastballs and that's about it. Pitchf/x rates him as essentially average or worse against every other pitch save the knuckler.

Defense

From most accounts, Nate is a good defensive right fielder. Fans rate him as having a strong, accurate arm, and he has shown a high UZR/150 in right over his career. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like he could play CF. he was tried there for a week or so last year and rated poorly (and I remember him not having the instincts or spped for it). Even if Nate is a strong defensive RF, it doesn't provide much in the sense of surplus value, due to both the relative unimportance of defense at the position and the fact there is very little room in RF for any venturing outfielder to make plays. For what it's worth, Schierholtz has an essentially average range factor at RF; this is the primary driver of his miniscule (but not negative) defensive value.

Summary

Nate Schierholtz was brought in by Hoyer to do one thing; hit right-handed pitching. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to do that with a passable level of success. If he can do that, he can be valuable. A $2.25 million dollar contract isn't a hindrance to any team, and to be a success he'd have to provide maybe a single WAR. He's already been worth 0.4 this season, the same mark as his output last season. Schierholtz stands to get 400 or so PA on the Cubs this year and I'd expect him to have a wOBA of .330 or so. That's a valuable piece at the trade deadline; maybe not as a primary offensive upgrade, but as a very serviceable injury replacement. All told, this is a low-risk, medium-reward move that a good GM should be proud to make.