That revamped Cubs rotation

Much has been written here in the last few days about the Cubs rotation injuries and what it means for the overall strength of the rotation. Most, or actually all of that has been negative. Sure, losing Garza can't be spun as a positive so I'm not going to do that.

As the resident optimist, I am here to assure you that the Cubs rotation is still better than last year and better by a wide margin compared to the rotation the Cubs ended the season with (Garzaless, Dempsterless and Samardzijaless).

The first thing we have to do as fans when trying to compare a rotation right now to a rotation from a previous season is to compare apples to apples. We want to compare this rotation to, for the purposes of this post, to last year's rotation by comparing the strength of each prior to the start of the season. Come July we can compare how the groups have performed, but right now, we have to compare pre-season to pre-season.

For last year's rotation, I'm only going to say two words: Jeff Samardzija.

I can't just say two words because, like Boyd Crowder, it takes me 40 words when 4 will do. See how I've already turned those two words into a bunch of crap? I'm good at that.

When the Cubs announced that Jeff Samardzija would be in last year's rotation it was maddening, funny and everything in between. He was the worst possible starting pitcher on the roster based on what we knew at this point a year ago. Clearly the Cubs knew something we didn't and good for them, but we didn't know that and anybody who wants to say that 40 innings of decent work in the bullpen in 2011 predicted the kind of season he had last year is full of it.

Ryan Dempster was the opening day starter last year. He was followed by Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija (not only did he make the roster, but he was the number 3 starter!), Chris Volstad and Paul Maholm. Based on their previous years, I think most people expected little to nothing from Samardzija and Volstad. Most of us figured Travis Wood would come up soon enough to replace one of them. He did. Volstad kind of sucked and went to the minors.

Using the OV projected playing time for 2012, the 5 members of the rotation were projected to be worth 7.9 WAR. The most recent CAIRO projections for the projected starting 5 this season is 7.8 WAR. Those 5 are Edwin Jackson (3.2), Matt Garza (2.4), Jeff Samardzija (1.6), Scott Feldman (1.2) and Scott Baker (0.4).

Our OV projected playing times for those 5 last year was 873 innings, CAIRO, due to recent injuries to some of these pitchers, is only projecting 607 innings. The projections are based on the last few years and, take Jeff Samardzija for example, he was a reliever prior to 2012 so he's only projected to throw 135 innings. Scott Baker is projected to throw only 30 innings.

Adjust those innings upwards and the rotation we expected this season is better than last year's. It's not a great rotation, but CAIRO and PECOTA have Samardzija projected much lower than a couple of the others.

Scott Baker has recorded an out this spring before having to undergo another MRI. Matt Garza is battling an injury and will miss at least the first monty of the season. The rotation is shaping up to be Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Travis Wood and Carlos Villanueva. Samardzija, Jackson and Feldman are projected by CAIRO to be worth 6 WAR.

The CAIRO for Travis Wood is 1.9 WAR and it's 1.0 WAR for Villanueva. So the expected Cubs rotation is projected to be worth 8.9 WAR, which is better than last year's rotation to begin the season.

Even if the Cubs lose another pitcher or two to the DL, they're likely to be better than they were at the end of the season. Guys like Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley and others can't be expected to be nearly as bad as they were. Even a guy like Josh Vitters would improve upon his season last year because you can't do anything but improve.

2013 PECOTA Projections

The 2013 PECOTA projections are out and I thought I'd post some of the Cubs below. Since you have to be a subscriber in order to download the spreadsheet, I'm only going to include PA and wOBA, which I calculated using the basic formula. For pitchers I'll only show IP and FIP (I calculated this too).

2013 PECOTA Projections for Cubs Batters

Name	PA	wOBA
Starlin Castro	623	0.325
David DeJesus	555	0.328
Scott Hairston	456	0.318
Anthony Rizzo	631	0.341
Welington Castillo	374	0.321
Alfonso Soriano	552	0.316
Ian Stewart	365	0.312
Nate Schierholtz	349	0.321
Darwin Barney	551	0.291
Luis Valbuena	256	0.307
Dioner Navarro	191	0.302
Brett Jackson	131	0.298
Steve Clevenger	137	0.283
Dave Sappelt	152	0.295
Junior Lake	46	0.280
Josh Vitters	250	0.286
Matt Szczur	250	0.284

PECOTA is projecting the Cubs only score 664 runs so it's not a powerhouse offense or anything. Castro is expected to have the most value at 3.4 WARP and no one else, using the depth charts section of Baseball Prospectus, is projected with more than 1.9 WARP.

2013 PECOTA Projections for Cubs Pitchers

Name	IP	FIP
Matt Garza	180.0	3.88
Scott Baker	138.0	3.91
Edwin Jackson	186.0	4.04
Kyuji Fujikawa	56.3	2.65
Carlos Marmol	61.0	3.04
Scott Feldman	138.7	4.32
Travis Wood	106.0	4.12
Carlos Villanueva	101.3	4.19
Jeff Samardzija	195.3	4.58
Shawn Camp	65.7	3.89
Manny Corpas	44.0	4.09
Arodys Vizcaino	36.3	4.69
Jaye Chapman	36.0	4.45
Marcos Mateo	36.7	4.56
Casey Coleman	50.0	4.72
Trey McNutt	36.0	4.92
Rafael Dolis	18.7	5.02
James Russell	61.0	4.79
Chris Rusin	63.3	4.79
Brooks Raley	54.3	5.10
Alberto Cabrera	23.3	4.96

PECOTA loves Kyuji Fujikawa and still really likes Carlos Marmol, but there's still going to be a closer controversy there if both perform as PECOTA expects. As for Jeff Samardzija, I'd not put a whole lot of weight in these forecasts. He beat them all last year because it was clear he had improved. The projections are still weighting the seasons prior to 2012 in which he mostly sucked. PECOTA doesn't think much of Arodys Vizcaino.

PECOTA likes the Cubs pitching. Only the Reds in the NL Central are projected to allow fewer than the 706 runs the Cubs are projected to allow.

Overall, PECOTA is projecting the Cubs to finish in 5th place in the NL Central with 77 wins.

Cubs interested in Brandon McCarthy and Shaun Marcum

We first heard about the Cubs possible interest in Brandon McCarthy a couple days ago and Gordon Whittenmeyer is confirming the Cubs interest, as well as throwing another name out there: Shaun Marcum.

With starting pitching the Cubs’ primary focus again this winter, they already have expressed interest in Athletics right-hander Brandon McCarthy, who was having a good season until suffering a skull fracture when hit by a line drive in September. He underwent surgery and didn’t pitch again this season but appears to be healthy enough for a comeback effort in 2013.

Brewers free agent Shaun Marcum, a 2009 Tommy John surgery graduate who missed two months in 2012 with elbow tightness, is another buy-low candidate the Cubs are eyeing — and a guy whose character they know well through manager Dale Sveum and pitching coach Chris Bosio.

Marcum has been a better than average starter over the last few seasons. He averaged over 3 WAR per season in 2010 and 2011 and had somewhat of a down season last year, but was still productive. He had a 3.70 ERA and 4.14 FIP last year. His strikeout percentage was almost identical to what it was in 2010 and 2011 (20-21%). His walk percentage was up just a bit to 7.8% from 6.9% and 6.0% the previous two seasons.

Marcum has never been a high strikeout percentage, but he's never had trouble striking them out either. This has always surprised me considering his velocity is rarely better than 90 mph. His average fastball last year was less than 87 and it was about the same as the year before.

I was a bit concerned about Dan Haren's drop in velocity because he had relied on it to some extent to strike batters out, but Marcum has done so without the velocity. If his medical report is solid, I think this would be a good pickup for the Cubs.

He can probably be expected to contribute about 2 WAR or so, which makes him worth approximately $10 million on the free agent market. Considering the injury risk, I'd not be willing to go that high and I'd want at least a club option added to the deal too. I'm not sure he could be add for only 1 year, but it's possible Marcum wants to prove he's healthy and hit the free agent market next season.

If the Cubs were to sign both of these guys, the Cubs rotation would suddenly look like a strength when you add in Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija. It's also a rotation that is flirting with disaster.

You've got the injury prone McCarthy, a pitcher who has perhaps recovered from an elbow injury and another pitcher who hasn't yet shown he has recovered from an arm injury in Garza. Then you have Samardzija who is coming off of only one good season and he's yet to pitch a full year. After him you've got Travis Wood and a bunch of nothing. That could be a fun rotation, but it could also lead to a rotation that is headlined by a struggling Samardzija and Wood followed by the likes of Brooks Raley and Chris Rusin.

That would probably be even less fun than 2012. The question is, is the potential upside worth it? If both of them prove they're healthy, could the Cubs get a decent return midseason like they did with Paul Maholm? They have nothing to lose.

Series Preview: Iowa Cubs of Chicago (46-70) at Cincinnati Reds (71-47)

#reminder {
background: #BECDC6;
padding: 6px;
font-size: 12px;
margin: 0px 12px 8px 12px;
}

Contest reminder: Don't forget to enter our contest to win The Essential Games of the Chicago Cubs DVD set. It runs through Sunday, August 19.

The Cubs faced the Reds less than a week ago (here's the preview). Not much has changed (Cubs still suck, Reds still in first place, Joey Votto still hurt) so I'll just stick to looking at the pitching matchups for the series.

There is a bit of breaking analysis on Aroldis Chapman that I saw while I was trying to figure out who would start the second game of the double header. You might not believe this, but Aroldis Chapman is awesome against mediocre hitters and not as awesome against really good hitters. Who would have guessed? Top NL hitters are 2-5 against him (with 2 walks) and top AL hitters are 2-3 with one walk, so you know his struggles against good hitters are legit. The Reds better trade him while he has some value, before other front offices figure this out. He has bust written all over him.

Probable Pitchers

Friday: Travis Wood, LHP (4.52, 5.34, 4.69, 4.33) vs Bronson Arroyo, RHP (3.95, 4.17, 4.24, 4.83), 6:10 PM CT

Travis Wood's problems with HRs don't particularly bode well for an outing in the launching pad of GAB. It was his home park for two seasons, and in 2010 it superficially looks as if he didn't really have a problem there, as his home HR/9 was 0.81 and his road number was 0.79 (small sample sizes apply obviously). That looks great until you notice that he pitched 80.1 innings on the road and only 22.1 at home. That could be an accident of schedule, but I'm guessing the Reds knew he wasn't a great fit for the park. In 2011 he pitched 55.1 innings away from GAB with a HR/9 rate of 0.33, and had a much more expected HR/9 rate of 1.42 in his 50.2 innings at GAB. Luckily for Wood it's relatively cool and not particularly humid tonight.

Arroyo throws tons of garbage and a lot of it for strikes. It's baffling how his strikeouts have increased when there's been little change in how batters are approaching him compared to last year's hilariously disastrous season. He's getting slightly more batters to chase at pitches outside the zone, and a slight increase in called strikes, but that's about it. He's merely giving up a lot of home runs this year instead of a ton of them.

Saturday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.06, 3.54, 3.52, 3.86) vs Johnny Cueto, RHP (2.45, 3.04, 3.67, 3.67), 12:10 PM CT

Samardzija showed no signs of slowing down as he enters new innings pitched territory. He tied a season high with 11 strikeouts in seven innings against the Astros, allowing only a solo HR to Brandon Barnes. It was his sixth best start of the year by game score. Aside from his filthy splitter (profiled on Fangraphs the other day) his sinker seems to be working for him as well given his career high 1.45 GB/FB. Also, it's still technically Shark Week tomorrow so he's got that working for him too. Eno Sarris recently checked up on him at fangraphs, and all of his pFX-y peripherals continue to point more towards Samardzija's transformation leaning towards Autobot rather than a Decepticon with his first pitch strike, swings outside the zone, contact, and strikes in general percentages all above average.

Cueto gets a much better matchup than his last outing against Raley. He pitched eight innings of shutout ball against the Cubs in his last start.

Saturday: Brooks Raley. LHP (SSS) vs Someone, 6:10 PM CT

Raley managed to put together a nominally Quality Start against the Reds his last time out, allowing three runs in six innings and striking out two. His long term future with the team is probably as the next James Russell.

Sunday: Chris Volstad, RHP (6.96, 4.57, 4,48, 4.85) vs Mat Latos, RHP (3.63, 4.12, 3.84, 3.61), 12:10 PM CT

Chris Volstad is just like Cliff Lee, he's just a hard-luck guy who can't get that W that he keeps seeing on the horizon. After posting two straight quality starts following his Iowa exile, Volstad did Volstad things, giving up eight hits (three for extra bases) on the way to four runs in five innings. Somehow he only has a LD% of 21.3 this year.

Latos was supposed to be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Reds this year, but he got off to a slow start posting FIPs of 4.70 and 5.12 in April and May respectively. Since then, however, he's been the pitcher the Reds were hoping for when they acquired him for the blocked Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, and the remains of ROY candidate Edinson Volquez's elbow.

Biannual Facepalm – 8.12.12

Superfriends, amalgamate!

The Superfriends added a new member to the Hall of Justice this week, poaching Padres scouting director Jaron Madison for the same position with the Cubs. Fomer scouting director and draft boss Tim Wilken is being promoted to a special assistant to the GM, and the Cubs are working out a contract extension.

Adolfo: Starlin Castro needs to concentrate more on the game

Following a long batting slump. a lousy day with the glove, and a horrific TOOTBLAN thrown in for good measure, Dale Sveum was not happy with Starlin. Soriano had a little chat with him too, as he told Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago

“It can be hard (to be so young), but we play baseball because we love baseball and that’s what we do for a living; that’s our career,” Soriano said. “We have to prepare 100 percent. Like I said to him yesterday, it’s not only catch the ball and throw the ball and hit the ball. This game is more mental. You have to prepare mentally and physically too. Not just physical. You have to prepare yourself mentally and all those little errors mentally cannot happen in this game.”

“He’ll be fine, but like I said, he needed motivation,” Soriano said. “He has to concentrate more on the game because it’s only a 3-3½ hour game. After that you can do whatever you want. You have plenty of time.”

Cue comments from meatballs on WGN about Soriano laziness, etc. etc. Soriano is well regarded as a clubhouse guy and the team sends young players in his direction for a reason.

Jorge Soler has a nice debut with Peoria

Soler hit a grand slam in his first pitch in the midwest league, silencing anyone who though the Cubs might have been a little too aggressive in promoting him two levels.

Thanks to RC for linking the video. Soler also drew a walk in the game.

The Chiefs are still in Beloit today and tomorrow, so it's just a relatively short drive for you Chicagoland folks. Also you can drink Spotted Cow there. And buy a case or two. And send it to me. Just sayin'.

Lendy Castillo returns from his long bout with David Patton disease

Castillo was pretty awful in his rare appearances with the Cubs in April and July, but in his three month rehab from a mild groin strain he only allowed two runs across seven "starts" (total of 20 IP) at various levels in the minors. Maybe he'll be a decent reliever for the Cubs down the road.

Did Dan Vogelbach homer last night?

No. Trade him for a bag of balls, then flip that bag for Ricky Nolasco's glove.

Is there a Cubs game today?

Johnny Cueto faces Brooks Raley in what is probably the biggest SP mismatch of the season. I can't wait to see the Cubs knock around Cueto while Raley throws right strikeout innings in honor of Ryan O'Malley.

Race to the Top Update

The Astros have won two games in a row against the Brewers, while the Cubs have a two game streak going and have lost 10 of their last 11. They're still 7.5 games out of the top pick. The Cubs are currently in line for the third pick, 2.5 games behind Colorado for the second and 5.5 ahead of the Padres for the third.

Just because I finished Justified S2 the other day

Checking up on the Cubs top prospects, part 1

A month ago I took a look at how the Cubs top prospects (ratings from John Sickels) were doing and the final part was a form for you so we could have our own top prospect list. The final part in this series will be those results. I know you’ve waited on pins and needles for them so you won’t have to wait much longer.

20) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C: Very effective against runners, has some power, but on-base skills are sketchy.

Castillo has only had about 60 plate appearances since we last checked in. I’m not sure if he’s been injured or what. He’s hitting .315/.376/.589 in over 200 PA at AAA this season. He kind of reminds me of Geovany Soto in terms of development.

Below is a list of Soto’s triple slash lines from age 18-24 and what level he was at:

18 Rk .260/339/.387
19 Rk & A-, .273/.335/.416
20 A+, .242/.313/.316
21 AA .271/.357/.342
22 AAA .253/.357/.342
23 AAA .272/.353/.386
24 AAA .353/.424/.642

Here’s what Castillo has done in his career:

19 Rk A- .188/.257/.188 (36 PA)
20 A- .271/.334/.423
21 A+ AA AAA .287/.337/.383
22 AA .232/.275/.386
23 AAA .255/317/.498
24 A+ AAA .301/.367/.522 (42 rehab PA at Daytona)

Soto was about a year ahead of Castillo, but neither catcher had impressive numbers until their age 24 season. Early on it looked as though both catchers would have to field their position excellently to get by at the big league level, but by age 23 for Soto, it appeared as though he had plenty of power to play every day behind the plate. Castillo has clearly shown that AAA is too easy.

I’m not saying that Castillo is going to have as successful a career as Soto has had, but it’s just something that I’ve noticed this season. Both took off at age 24. Soto has still been inconsistent at the big league level with the stick so take the comparison for what it’s worth (not much).

19) Ben Wells, RHP, Grade C: Hasn’t pitched yet, but seventh round pick from Arkansas high school has potential as a hard-throwing starter.

Wells scouting report at the time he was drafted by Baseball America said this about him:

Ben Wells pitched at 84-87 mph most of his amateur career, but by the end of this spring he was throwing 90-94 mph and pitching a five-inning perfect game in the state 7-A championship game. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound righthander has a good feel for pitching, too, as he pounds the strike zone with a three-pitch mix that also includes a hard slider and splitter. He committed to Crowder (Mo.) JC and now is drawing attention from Southeastern Conference schools. Wells has the size and stuff to go in the first five rounds of the draft, though he may not have been scouted extensively enough to go that high.

Wells doesn’t turn 19 for over a month and in 41.2 short-season A ball innings he’s allowed 44 hits, struckout 30 and walked 14. The walk rate is good, but hitters aren’t having any difficulty getting base hits against Wells and he’s having a little trouble striking them out. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher (2.44 GO/AO).

18) Jin-Young Kim, RHP, Grade C+: Will he be worth the big bonus?

Things have gotten worse for Kim since we last checked in. He’s allowed 38 hits in 24.1 short-season A ball innings. He’s allowed 4 home runs, walked 15 and struckout only 16. Only one time this season has he not allowed any runs. In his second appearance he threw 3.2 innings, allowed 5 hits, walked 1 and struckout 2. Not exactly an impressive outing by any means. His best outing other than that one was a 4 inning appearance in which he allowed 7 hits, walked 1 and struckout 2.

17) Austin Kirk, LHP, Grade C+: Breakthrough candidate for 2011.

Kirk is having another solid season though last time we checked in he had gotten roughed up in his three previous starts and that trend has continued. Overall he’s thrown 118 innings at Peoria and allowed only 94 hits, walked just 27 and has struckout 101. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but his control is excellent. I don’t know how his skills will translate to the next level or levels, but it’s always nice to see a young pitcher in the Cubs organization who throws strikes.

16) Su-Min Jung, RHP, Grade C+: Wasn’t great at Peoria, but I think he can get better faster than people anticipate.

After walking 24 and striking out only 19 in 43.2 innings at Peoria, he was sent back to Boise. It hasn’t gone any better there either. He’s walked 16 batters, struckout only 8 and has allowed 9 runs in 10.2 innings.

15) Brooks Raley, LHP, Grade C+: Was very effective in the second half.

Raley has LOOGY written all over him. Never a strikeout pitcher, Raley has struckout just 54 in 104 innings at AA. He’s walked 37 and allowed 13 home runs. Raley doesn’t strike many out, batters don’t have any trouble getting base hits or home runs and he doesn’t have excellent control, though it’s not bad. At the age of 23, I expect we’ll see Raley moved to Iowa next year and put in the bullpen. It’s hard to imagine there’s a future there as a starter. There may not even be one as a LOOGY.

14) Brett Wallach, RHP, Grade C+: Another one (live arm, needs polish).

The Cubs acquired Wallach when they traded Ted Lilly to the Dodgers last year. Remember when the Cubs had a ton of strikeout pitchers who had a very high ceiling? Yeah, those days are gone. Wallach is yet another starter who doesn’t strike many batters out. He’s struckout 71 in 91 High A innings. He’s walked 34 so his command isn’t bad, but there’s probably not a large enough difference between K% and BB% for him to be a serious candidate for the rotation in the future. He turns 23 in December.

13) Rafael Dolis, RHP, Grade C+: Another guy in the live arm/needs polish brigade.

Converted to closer after 4 AA starts, he hasn’t been that impressive. On the season at AA he’s struckout only 6.6 batters per 9 and walked over 4 per 9. He does keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark, but his strikeouts will only continue to decline as he moves up the system while his walks go the opposite direction. He’ll turn 24 in January and spend most or all of 2012 in Des Moines.

12) D.J LeMahieu, INF, Grade C+: I think people are a bit too down on him; he could surprise this year.

After breaking out in AA earlier this season, he was called up to Chicago out of necessity. After being sent back to AAA, things have not gone well. in 121 PA he’s hit .278/.306/.330 for the I-Cubs. LeMahieu just turned 23 so he’s another guy who is going to spend most or all of 2012 in AAA. He needs to work at getting on base without requiring a hit to do so.

11) Marquez Smith, 3B, Grade C+: Not young, but ready to help at the major league level and can catch people off-guard.

It seems rare to me that there’s a guy who has consistently hit as well as Smith has who has never gotten a shot at a big league job. It’s not just the Cubs either. He was available in last year’s Rule 5 and no team even took a flyer on him. The consensus seems to be that there’s little Smith can do to make up for whatever deficiency there is that we’re not seeing in the numbers. It’s not defense as he’s known as a good defender. It’s not like he’s a left fielder or 1st baseman. He plays 3rd base and could easily switch to 2nd if needed. Like I said last time, whatever it is that’s holding Smith back is something that we can’t see, but it’s obviously present.

Continue reading “Checking up on the Cubs top prospects, part 1”

Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 4

Over the last week we’ve looked at the top 20 Cubs prospects according to John Sickels and how they’re performing this season. We’ve also looked at 15 or 16 additional players worthy of some discussion for one reason or another. Many of the 2010 draft picks, especially the high school ones, have very little playing time to their name. Few of the 2011 draft picks have any playing time and less than 20 of the 50 have been signed.

I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may been wrong. The farm system does appear to be in better shape than I had thought.

The Cubs top prospect, Brett Jackson, is having another great season. Strikeouts are an issue, but he’s getting on base, which is what he’s going to be asked to do at the big league level as he’ll almost certainly be the leadoff hitter. Jackson has needed little to no time to adjust to new levels throughout his professional career and has shown the potential of being a very productive player.

Trey McNutt, the highest ranked pitching prospect entering the season, has suffered some injuries, but none of them arm-related. It hard to figure out too much when looking at his stats when you consider the blister problems as well as the performance after coming back from a collision. He’s not even thrown 50 innings yet.

Ryan Flaherty is hitting the ball exceptionally well. DJ LeMahieu has even done the same and was promoted to the big leagues to sit on the bench for awhile. Robert Whitenack emerged early this season as the breakout performer in the organization only to have his season cut short with elbow surgery.

Jeffrey Beliveau has continued to improve his control while also striking out a ton of batters. He’s very difficult to hit and even righties have struggled against him. He looks like a late-inning reliever for sure. Chris Rusin is in AAA now and has the best control in the organization. He’s not a top of the rotation starter, but if he continues to progress, he could provide some value at the backend of the rotation. Nicholas Struck is only 21 years old and already in AAA. He has more potential than Rusin and considering his age for the levels he’s played in, it’s difficult to estimate his true talent level going forward, but he’s more than held his own against older competition.

Austin Kirk has been ridiculously tough to hit and Matt Szczur has hit everything he’s seen. It seems clear the organization is in a better position than I initially thought.

While there are still no impact players, the system does have a number of players who could contribute some value in the near future.

I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may have been too kind previously. The farm system appears to be in worse shape than I had thought.

Brett Jackson’s strikeouts haven’t held him back thus far, but he’s going to have BABIP his way to a decent batting average at the big league level. He’ll walk plenty so his OBP will still be solid, but it could easily be league average or worse. He’s going to strikeout more at the big league level than he has so far, which is not a good sign. He’ll also walk less, have less power, his defense will be worse and there’s already discussion about whether or not he can remain in CF. A leadoff hitter, which is what the Cubs have him pegged as, who doesn’t get on base at an above average rate would be terrible for any offense. If he has to move to a corner, much of his value is gone. There are a lot of question marks with Jackson.

Trey McNutt has had a number of blister issues and a collision that has kept his inning total to less than 50 and those 50 have been unimpressive to just plain bad. His strikeouts declined after his late-season promotion last year and they’ve continued to decline even further. His current strikeout rate leaves one little reason to hope he’ll be anything more than a bullpen arm and maybe not even a good one at that. We already saw what a big decline in strikeouts did to Jay Jackson when he got to AAA.

While Ryan Flaherty continues to hit, he also continues to be passed over for other players like DJ LeMahieu. He’s without a position having played less than half his games at 2nd base. He’s old for his level and the only time he’s been challenged was at the beginning of the 2010 season and he failed miserably.

Beliveau has excellent strikeout numbers and a good walk rate. He’ll more than likely provide value to the Cubs in the future, but they already have Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall at the backend of their bullpen. Beliveau’s value will be limited. At 21, Nicholas Struck is already at AAA, but at 5-11, 185, endurance becomes an issue. Beyond that, he’s allowed nearly a hit per inning and struckout only 7.1 per 9. Solid numbers overall, but not a top of the rotation or even a middle of the rotation pitcher in the future.

Robert Whitenack emerged early as this season’s breakout pitcher, which kind of says enough as it is. Anyway, after his fantastic start, he went down with a torn elbow ligament and will miss a year. Chris Rusin has been solid, but again, he’s a backend of the rotation starter and that’s if he progresses as one would expect.

Matt Szczur has little to no power, but makes a lot of contact. He has decent on-base skills, but even if he progressed as one would expect, he’s no impact player and he’s years away from making any impact anyway.

Alberto Cabrera, ranked 10th by Sickels, has been bad. Number 9 prospect Austin Reed has given up more than a hit per inning at Boise. Number 8 prospect Robinson Lopez strikes out less than 6.5 per 9. Josh Vitters, ranked 7th, hasn’t got a chance in hell of being a Major League player. At number 5 is Hayden Simpson. After getting rocked at Peoria, he’s getting rocked in Rookie League. Jay Jackson was number 4. Enough said. Christopher Carpenter was number 3 and he’s now a reliever so yawn. We already talked about Trey McNutt and Brett Jackson.

Marquez Smith is number 11 and nobody even wanted him in the Rule 5 Draft. DJ LeMahieu is 12th. No power whatsoever. On-base skills are lacking. At 13th was Rafael Dolis and he’s now a reliever and only Ok considering he’s been at AA for awhile now. Brooks Raley is 15th and he strikes out fewer batters than Casey Coleman. Su-Min Jung isn’t any good.

If there weren’t a dozen or more players in the top 20 who have fallen flat on their faces this season, you could bet good money some of them would be out of the top 20. As it is, most probably remain in the top 20 because they’ve all sucked.

It’s true the organization has had some risers this season, but they’ve had more decline. Plus, even the ones who have risen have decent potential. None of them are impact players.

Tim Wilken has had 5+ years to do something with this organization and we get this?

Continue reading “Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 4”

Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 1

I figured now was a good time to post something about the Cubs top prospects since it’s past the midway point in the full minor league seasons. The short-season teams just got under way. I’m using Sickel’s top 20. I’m breaking this into three parts. I’ll cover 11-20 here and then 1-10 while the final part will focus on players not ranked, but deserving of being discussed for one reason or another. It could be a draft pick from this season. Could just be a breakout season or something. Here we go.

20) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C: Very effective against runners, has some power, but on-base skills are sketchy.

He was injured early on and spent some time on a rehab in Daytona, which didn’t go particularly well. Since returning to Iowa all he’s done is hit. His triple slash line in just over 150 plate appearances at Iowa is .316/.386/.618. Yeah, a .302 ISO. The park-adjusted wOBA is .437, which is 20% better than league average (120 wRC+). He got 13 plate appearances with the Cubs when Geovany Soto was injured and had only 2 hits. Before you start going all crazy and stuff, he was a .344 wOBA hitter last season at Iowa and .292 the year before in Tennessee. He’s good enough to be a back-up. That’s especially true when the current back-up is Koyie Hill. John Guab would be an adequate back-up catcher when Hill is on the roster and Gaub is a left-handed reliever.

Castillo is still just 24 years old and doesn’t turn 25 until next April. That’s relatively young for a catcher. It’s hard to believe he won’t be the back-up next season, but I said the same thing last year. He’s definitely improved on his Grade C rating, but he has been in AAA for awhile.

19) Ben Wells, RHP, Grade C: Hasn’t pitched yet, but seventh round pick from Arkansas high school has potential as a hard-throwing starter.

Wells scouting report at the time he was drafted by Baseball America said this about him:

Ben Wells pitched at 84-87 mph most of his amateur career, but by the end of this spring he was throwing 90-94 mph and pitching a five-inning perfect game in the state 7-A championship game. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound righthander has a good feel for pitching, too, as he pounds the strike zone with a three-pitch mix that also includes a hard slider and splitter. He committed to Crowder (Mo.) JC and now is drawing attention from Southeastern Conference schools. Wells has the size and stuff to go in the first five rounds of the draft, though he may not have been scouted extensively enough to go that high.

Wells just joined the Boise Hawks when their season opened and he’s made 3 appearances, 2 of which were starts. He’s allowed 15 hits in 13.2 innings and walked 5 while striking out 11. Way too early to evaluate anything he’s done this season so we’ll leave it at that.

18) Jin-Yeong Kim, RHP, Grade C+: Will he be worth the big bonus?

Like Wells, Kim is at Boise and has also made 3 appearances and 2 starts. In 8.2 innings, he’s allowed 11 hits, walked 7 and struckout 3.

17) Austin Kirk, LHP, Grade C+: Breakthrough candidate for 2011.

The left-handed starter was a 3rd pick out of high school for the Cubs in 2009. So far, he has had a breakout season this year. In 84.1 innings, he’s allowed only 63 hits, walked only 20 and has struckout 72. At Peoria all season, he’s gotten roughed up in his last 3 starts, which have totaled 14 innings, 20 hits, 13 runs allowed, 5 walks and 12 strikeouts. His tRA has been 4.25, which is good for a 108 tRA+.

Kirk made the Midwest League All-Star team this year.

16) Su-Min Jung, RHP, Grade C+: Wasn’t great at Peoria, but I think he can get better faster than people anticipate.

The 6-2 righty turned 22 on April 1st. He hasn’t gotten any better either. He’s gotten worse. Last season he struckout 79 in 89 innings and walked 39. This year he has walked 20 and struckout 19 in 39.2 innings. He has a 5.40 tRA as a starter and it’s close to 8.00 as a reliever.

15) Brooks Raley, LHP, Grade C+: Was very effective in the second half.

Raley isn’t a strikeout pitcher. Last year he struckout 97 in in 136.1 innings at Daytona. This year at Tennessee he’s struckout 46 in 80 innings. If you’re not going to strikeout a lot of batters, you need to have really good control. Raley’s isn’t terrible by any means, but last year he walked 43 and this year he’s already close to that. He’s not striking out enough batters at the moment to be considered a serious candidate for the rotation in the future. He turned 23 a few days ago so it’s likely any future for Raley is as a reliever and possibly just a LOOGY.

14) Brett Wallach, RHP, Grade C+: Another one (live arm, needs polish).

The Cubs acquired Wallach when they traded Ted Lilly to the Dodgers last year. He was unimpressive in his 7 starts in the organization at Peoria last season and has been equally unimpressive this year in terms of runs allowed. He does have a pretty good tRA, which is 9% better than average in the Southern League. He does have a 5.58 ERA. He doesn’t turn 23 until December so they may as well leave him as a starter for now and see if he can reduce the hits allowed.

13) Rafael Dolis, RHP, Grade C+: Another guy in the live arm/needs polish brigade.

Dolis made 4 starts this season before moving into the bullpen full time. I thought it was a little strange at the time, but it’s proven a decent move. His numbers as a reliever aren’t all that impressive. He has just 34 strikeouts and 19 walks in 47.1 innings. He’s also allowed 45 hits. He turns 24 next January and is currently on the Cubs 40-man roster. Unless his numbers improve in the second half of the season, he’s a good candidate to be taken off the roster.

12) D.J LeMahieu, INF, Grade C+: I think people are a bit too down on him; he could surprise this year.

Ryno and I nearly killed each other over this draft pick in 2009. The Cubs used their second selection in 2009 to draft LeMahieu. Ryno wasn’t too impressed with the first pick, Brett Jackson. I was thrilled with that one and saw some upside in LeMahiue considering his young age at the time of the draft and being a college player.

Although he has no power at all, he’s still been a good hitter since the Cubs drafted him. His park-adjusted wOBA in 2009 was .356. It was .345 in 2010 at Daytona and then this season he hit everything in sight. Prior to his big league promotion, he had a .399 wOBA at AA. He rarely played for the Cubs and was recently sent to Iowa. He doesn’t take many walks and has lived on a particularly high BABIP most of his professional career. It’s worked so far for him in the minors, but it’s likely he’s going to have to become more selective or add some power in order to continue posting the quality batting lines he has so far. He turns 23 in 11 days. It’s too bad he couldn’t stick at SS. He’s played 2nd and 3rd this season in the minors. Total Zone and UZR really liked his defense in the very small sample he had at the big league level. It’s likely he’s a very good fielder at either position considering he was once a SS.

11) Marquez Smith, 3B, Grade C+: Not young, but ready to help at the major league level and can catch people off-guard.

I was stunned last year when the Cubs did not add Smith to their 40-man roster. All he did last year at Iowa was post a .416 park-adjusted wOBA. He’s not your ideal 3rd baseman in that he doesn’t have a lot of power, but he’s a terrific fielder and makes up for his lack of power. He was older than usual for a prospect, but that’s an impressive wOBA. He’s done it throughout his career, too. His wOBAs since he was drafted have been .424 (72 PA), .416 (357), .305 (146), .348 (55), .356 (450), .307 (52), .416 (342) and this year it’s .368 in 250 plate appearances. He can hit.

But apparently I’m the only one who thinks he can be a productive player at the big league level because the Cubs did not protect him and not one team took him in the Rule 5 Draft. So there’s obviously something I’m missing, which isn’t too surprising since I’ve not seen him play. There’s something in his game that scouts do not think is going to translate well to the next level. There has to be. I don’t know what it is, but it’s there.

Continue reading “Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 1”