carlos correa – Obstructed View

The Cubs Night Before Christmas 2022

‘Twas the night before Christmas, including Chicago

Barely anyone stirring because it’s so cold

The Cubs had signed Dansby and young Bellinger

With hopes for a new ring for the baby bears

The plan was to load up on pitchers and D

To ensure the opponents scored fewer than three

As many batters put on other teams’ caps

What’s to be done to avoid offensive crap?

When over on Clark in the darkened Cubs offices

Jed Hoyer wanted this team not to be novices

Though folks normally would be celebrating Christmas

Jed was, as far as we know, still Jewish

Though free agent selection had dwindled

While the Giants, now the Mets, try not to be swindled

Jed still had money to make the team more stacked

Instead of the Ricketts blowing it on some Super PAC

With his fingers on the mouse, so lively and quick

Jed scoured the waiver wire for undervalued sticks

On several Post-Its he set up reminders

To claim some hitters who could handle sliders

A bench guy? A speedster? A random first baseman?

Perhaps a new catcher or a new third baseman?

If only he could just square up the ball

Jed might not have to trade Madrigal

Can he rely on Mervis to hit 30 deep flies

Or will that strikeout rate unnervingly rise?

Will Patrick Wisdom’s defense return anew

Or will he be nearly unplayable too?

The pitching is solid though without an ace

Though Marcus Stroman could maybe keep pace

Jameson Taillon will help raise the floor

So the Cubs won’t have to play with the humidor

The bullpen is capable of making leads stick

As long as they’ve somehow fixed Rowan Wick

Perhaps baseballs will stop being murdered

With solid assistance from Brad Boxberger

With Nico and Dansby and Cody up the middle

The defense hopes to make runs against little

A catching tandem with gloves but no bats

Can at least keep the staff’s ERA less fat

Though AC’s epic plan might not come to fruition

And most guys on the roster cost less than Yale tuition

Perhaps with some luck and bounceback years

The Cubs next season can allay all our fears

Although the Cards added Willy and the Brewers have pitchers

The Reds and Pirates are still at best mediocre

And with a balanced schedule negating the suck

Of this National League Central division of muck

Jed was fully committed to the plan

Trusting the process, no guff from the fans

He spoke not a word, and went back to his work

Aiming to deliver though we were such jerks

If we squint we might see a plan without reproach

But let’s take a wait and see approach

For now let us clock out for the night

Merry Christmas, jabronis, now go eat some pie!

Dreamcast 55: How the Cubs Saved Christmas

Hey everyone, happy holidays! The Cubs pulled off a last minute present just in time even if it wasn’t our first choice in signing Dansby Swanson. Among the various fun topics from AC’s various very good questions include:

The fallout from the Carlos Correa drama session
How we feel about the Cubs as currently constructed
What the Cubs still need to do
…and more!

Please rate and review us on Apple Podcasts and share us with your friends. Thanks for listening, and hope you get plenty of fun presents.

You should be able to see the embedded player from both this WordPress and our Podbean embedded player for this episode below:

Obstructed View Podcast

Dreamcast 55: How the Cubs Saved Christmas

00:00 /

Cohen You Crazy Bastard

I’m sure you know by now, but just in case you just woke up, the New York Mets swooped in to sign Carlos Correa because why the fuck not:

In a shocking development, Carlos Correa has agreed to join the Mets for a 12-year, $315MM contract, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. Correa had previously agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, yet reports surfaced yesterday that an unknown issue with Correa’s medicals had led to a postponement of the Giants’ introductory press conference for the shortstop. The 28-year-old Correa is represented by the Boras Corporation, and his deal with the Mets will become official once he passes a physical.

So he gets one fewer year than the Giants offered and a bit less money (I’m sure he’ll live), and the Mets payroll climbs ever higher and perhaps triggers an owner revolt to enact a CBA change that actually spurs more equitable spending across the league so the bottom dwellers don’t just suck up revenue sharing money (but I doubt it). Meanwhile you wonder why the Cubs didn’t try for the last minute Hail Mary, but then again, the medical mystery surrounding Correa might be a risk too big to take.

While the Mets are blowing half a billion dollars on payroll and luxury taxes instead of something like sustainable energy or ending world poverty, I guess it’s better than funding questionable campaigns, so go Steve Cohen I guess. Good luck to the Mets in their quest to survive the wild card round in 2023.

Correa to the Giants

We didn’t need a banging garbage can to see this coming. Carlos Correa and the San Francisco Giants have agreed to a 13-year, $350 million deal with a full no-trade clause giving the free-agent shortstop and admitted baseball cheater an $8 million/year pay-cut from last season with the small-market Minnesota Twins. Sucks getting old, doesn’t it?

Plenty of teams, including the Cubs, had expressed interest in Correa and for good reason. But who cares what those reasons were now that the Cubs aren’t getting him? Nico Hoerner, for the time being, is still the Cubs’ shortstop, and Dansby Swanson is still on the Cubs’ radar for moving Nico over to 2B and bolstering this Cubs roster offensively and defensively. Feel free to get your hopes up that the Cubs will do anything significant to improve the team before the season begins or, for that matter, that the team will somehow be in a position at the trade deadline other than the one with which the past two seasons have made Cubs fans uncomfortably familiar: massive sellers. Who knows? Maybe Cody Bellinger can have that rebound season he’s been waiting for, return to MVP form, and the Cubs can trade him for a nice prospect haul in July. That should give much-needed momentum to the Cubs’ “Maybe the year after next” marketing campaign.

For now, I’ll be resigning myself to the likelihood that this team has little intention to improve by leaps and/or bounds instead of by baby steps or being dragged against their will. The big news for today is that the Cubs decided not to sign a player who would do anything to win baseball games, because doing anything to win baseball games isn’t something this franchise believes in anymore.

Do Something!

I think I want to see another few years of this version of the postseason before I start lobbying for one of AC’s fun ideas to change things up. What I am sure of, at this time, is that the NLCS was a lot of fun to watch. Even if I’ve been a little bored with three-true-outcomes baseball, when the Phillies, including former Cubs legend Kyle Schwarber, hit a homer, it is majestic and tons of silly fun. Besides missing Schwarber doing this for the Cubs (in the playoffs too would be nice), I’m also annoyed with the missing out on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. I know lots of people are telling me to get over it, which is fair, but I think as Cubs fans in this era, it is more than fair to expect a team that charges the ticket prices they do to invest in the product on the field to make it much more fun than it has been.

Don’t get me wrong, it has been periodically entertaining to watch the 2021 and 2022 Cubs, but it has been more than apparent that through myriad failings, the team that we enjoyed so much up until the tail end of 2018 was allowed to fall into disrepair (the jabronii and I talked about this in the most recent Dreamcast) with little apparent support from ownership to add or repair in a timely fashion. And seeing how much fun the Phillies are having, I also realize how much I miss seeing the Cubs in the mix. I’d like the 2023 Cubs to get back to the postseason, and I would also like them to learn from the lessons of this past core and avoid squandering all that talent and potential. As indicated in this article by The Athletic, there really is no excuse for the Cubs to make a serious attempt at improving the club, now and in the future. There are plenty of pieces to work with, both on the roster given the upcoming crunch before Rule 5 and available on the free agent market.

I think as Cubs fans, we should expect the people with the obscene amounts of money to throw some of it at the players we know are good based on their track records, whether they’re free agents like Carlos Correa, or extendable stars-in-the-making like Nico Hoerner. I want to avoid having to trade away fan favorites and allowing them to walk without a serious extension attempt, though it is arguable that they tried with guys like Javier Baez and Kris Bryant (I think a lot of the issues with them has to do with coaching but I guess I don’t have a lot of evidence for that other than my own feelings). I’d like to see the Cubs do something like what Atlanta is doing by extending their young core for pretty much the next decade so we can have some continuity to root for again.

I do recognize that a lot of folks out there are rationalizing the last couple teardowns in their own way, but I personally am going to hold the rich bastard owners accountable for giving me something I can root for besides the laundry. Despite the postseason being a bit of a crapshoot, given the way MLB and MLBPA are approaching it, we have to contend with getting a spot in the field and hope for some of the chaos we have seen from the Padres and Phillies this year. As has been said many times before in this and other forums, you can’t win the World Series if you’re not even able to get in the playoffs. Given that it is far more fun to watch the Cubs win than just sneak in, and the number of resources that should be available to this club, they should be shooting for the bye within the next few years, and our minimum expectation for next year is a wild card berth and a shot at some chaos. Obviously we can’t predict injuries and bad performances, but they need to objectively show that they’re serious about the long term contention that they promised those years ago, even after we got the one before we die.

After all, if I’m going to pay that much for a set of tickets and a crappy hot dog, I think what I’m asking for is reasonable, no?

The Still-Too-Early Cubs Free Agency Pitch

The postseason thus far has brought us plenty of fun and exciting moments and equally intense discourse, but generally, even if the best team doesn’t always win the World Series, getting a shot into the postseason field is the goal. So it makes sense to discuss how the 2023 Chicago Cubs will be constructed to pull off a purported upset against whatever iteration of juggernaut comes along next year. Or maybe the Cubs are the juggernaut? Who even knows?

The Math

I figure it’s a good idea to start with what’s available and what’s possible before the Cubs hit the first luxury tax threshold, and it seems that since they’ve reset the penalties anyway, they’ll be ok for a couple years if they elect to go nuts (but not Dodgers/Mets nuts because those teams really might go nuts). For that we have Cots to thank, as whoever runs it has a handy-dandy spreadsheet of salary obligations for the next few years. Per their math, the Cubs are just above $107MM before arbitration raises but including any eligible 40-man benefits and salaries, and are somewhere around $124MM below the first luxury tax tier of $232MM. My best guess is that while the rhetoric from the front office and the owner is “aggressive intelligent spending,” they’re not quite ready to plow way past that $232MM mark due to the escalating penalties. Because of Jed Hoyer’s parallel tracks philosophy and the need to eventually see what’s up with some of these prospects (especially the ones who probably have to be added to the 40-man anyway), the payroll will increase, but like I said above, it might not even touch that first luxury threshold until they see how the upper tier prospects fare. So we have somewhere around $100-$120MM to play around with, and I’ll let smarter people than I figure out how to dole that out as we explore some early rumors below.

The Qualifying Offer Bruhaha

Based on what I can figure out, the Cubs didn’t receive revenue sharing and also did not exceed the luxury tax, and their first round pick is protected regardless, so:

If their only Qualifying Offer free agent (see below) rejects the offer and signs elsewhere, the Cubs will receive a compensation pick after Competitive Balance Round B.
If the Cubs sign a free agent that rejected the QO, then they’ll lose their second round pick (and so on) depending on how many QO free agents they decide to sign.

So that’s pretty easy, with the Cubs picking 12th overall pending lottery and probably not worrying too much about lost pool money if they’re going to go for it (to some extent, anyway).

The Catcher

The obvious elephant in the room (not that he’s going to sign with Oakland) is Willson Contreras, who will be extended the qualifying offer (now valued at $19.65MM for this offseason) and is expected to reject it, and as far as we know, the Cubs don’t necessarily really want him back anyway. Of course, if Willson decides to just accept the offer so they can’t QO him next year and get paid the money, or to set up some momentum to negotiate a shorter term contract, I wouldn’t object, since the current batch of catchers realistically ready to go aren’t that good at hitting. Yan Gomes is a decent enough backup catcher and PJ Higgins had his moments, but it seems the Cubs could use a better defensive/game managing catcher if they’re not prioritizing the offense at this position.

The smart thing to do might be to pair Yan Gomes with a platoon partner, but the free agent list isn’t all that encouraging, with former Gold Glove winner Tucker Barnhart and only-seems-to-kill-the-Cubs outgoing Brewer Omar Narvaez available. I think both of these guys have their positives as game callers, so if the pitchers are happy, then that probably goes a long way and we can look past the (lack of) offense at the catching position.

Other Position Players

This is initially a WTF but then perhaps a “sorta makes sense” rumor, but the Cubs are reported to have at least some interest in cross-town rival Jose Abreu. While getting up there in years, Abreu has always hit well, gets on base, has thump, and probably would be amenable to a short term contract (and hide in the designated hitter spot every now and then) especially if he didn’t have to move too far from his old stomping grounds on the South Side.

Since Nico Hoerner is receptive to moving across the diamond if necessary, or perhaps the new guys are willing to move themselves, the Cubs are tied to the incoming free agent class of shortstops. Carlos Correa has been the main pick due to his still-young age, the bat continuing to do its thing, and the fact that he won’t be tied to a qualifying offer if he does expectedly opt out of his contract with Minnesota. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts (if he opts out as well) are a bit older and will carry the QO tag around them, but I don’t think the Cubs are going to care too much if Correa ends up signing elsewhere and they have to pick from the rest. If the Cubs are going to be aggressive, this and pitching (see next) are going to be their focus in most people’s opinions.

The Pitching

I suppose the dream here is to sign Jacob deGrom to a short term contract with heavy money if he opts out of his deal with the Mets, but the Mets owner is crazy so he’ll probably stay there. Drew Smyly did pitch for the Cubs this year but he’s more like a backend starter, so I assume they’ll throw him a reasonable short term deal. There are also scrap heap-type reclamation projects all over the free agent list, but if the Cubs were to dip into that pool as if they were serious options, then we’re obviously in trouble, so I’m hoping they just ride the success of the pitching this year and really go after a top-of-the-rotation guy. I guess there’s always the hope that Justin Verlander tries to get one last big late-career deal after a probably Cy Young season, but I don’t see why he and Houston would want to dissolve their relationship. I was also seeing that Johnny Cueto is a free agent, and Jose Quintana too (who is a mystery wrapped in a conundrum if you’re a Cubs fan, plus he’s probably recruiting Willson to the Cardinals so eww), plus a bunch of other interesting names should their current teams let them skip town.

For heftier commitments that might have a few extra years, I think if Carlos Rodon were to opt out as expected, he would be a primary target even if tied to a QO. Looking abroad, the touted Japanese starter Kodai Senga (sometimes stated as Koudai Senga) is about to hit free agency, and with Seiya Suzuki on the club already to act as recruiter, this seems like a sweepstakes the Cubs want to participate in.

I’m not even going to try to build a team yet until we see more rumors and actual deals coming closer to the Winter Meetings, but as the philosophy goes, you get what’s available and hope for the best.

Kris Bryant is good at sports

A little over 3 years ago the Cubs drafted Kris Bryant with the 2nd pick of the 2013 First Year Player Draft*. He was considered either the top prospect or close enough to the top that few teams, if any, would have passed on him given the chance to take him that high. It was somewhat surprising to see the Houston Astros pass on him with their top pick, but they saved some money by taking Carlos Correa. They chose to spend a bit more later on and Correa has become every bit as good as the Astros hoped. Mark Appel was taken first overall that year (corrected from original).

*Can MLB please change the name of the draft to MLB Draft?

The Cubs signed Bryant to the suggested slot of $6.7 million a month later and his professional career began shortly thereafter. In Bryant’s first full professional season he hit 43 home runs in 138 games between AA and AAA. He has a very good chance of hitting 40+ home runs in his first full MLB season. He’s already got 25, which is 1 shy of his season total last year. He was called up as soon as the Cubs secured the additional year of service time so he spent what is basically the full season with the Cubs, but technically, 2016 is his first full season in the big leagues.

Last year he hit .275/.369/.488 with a .371 wOBA and 136 wRC+. It was a fantastic rookie season that earned him Rookie of the Year honors in the National League. He was worth 6.5 fWAR, which I think surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. It was quite odd to see a Cubs prospect surpass expectations. It was a welcome surprise, but even the most optimistic had to be a little worried. Kris Bryant was striking out a lot. Despite the strikeouts, 199 of them in his rookie season, he was an outstanding and productive player in the minor leagues and proved to be just that at the MLB level.

He was helped out last year a little with a BABIP near .380. It’s fallen back to a more reasonable .315 this year. All he’s done this season is hit .286/.384/.578 with a .403 wOBA and a wRC+ of 153. He’s been worth 5.0 fWAR already.

The Cubs have 74 games remaining, which isn’t quite half the season, but I began to wonder just how good Bryant’s season may be in relation to this franchise’s best seasons by WAR. It’s unlikely Bryant will end up being worth 10 WAR, but it’s also possible. Bryant’s WAR at Baseball Prospectus (bpWAR) is 5.39. BP would have a different leaderboard since they use a slightly different way to calculate their WAR, but I just wanted to show that by at least one WAR measure, Bryant may well be on his way to a 10 WAR season.

That is, if we consider what he is on pace for and not what he’s likely to do. For example, it looks like Bryant is projected to be worth about 2.5 WAR the rest of the way leaving him just shy of 8 WAR. We’ll come back to this more reasonable estimate, but first let’s just be kids and imagine.

Rogers Hornsby‘s 1929 season is unlikely to be topped any time soon. He was worth 11.1 fWAR that year so even the most optimistic person would have trouble arguing that Bryant has much of any shot of catching or passing that. Hornsby’s 1929 season is the only one in franchise history to reach 10 fWAR in a season. Sammy Sosa came close in his memorable 2001 season (9.9). In 1959 Ernie Banks was worth 9.7 and in 1967 Ron Santo was worth 9.5 fWAR. Fergie Jenkins was worth 9.6 fWAR in 1971 and 9.5 in 1970. No other Cubs player has had a season worth as much as 9 fWAR. Those 6 seasons stand well above every other season by a Cubs player.

If Bryant puts together the kind of 2nd half that we hope he does, he very well could crack that top 6. Not only that, he could become just the 2nd Cubs player to crack 10 fWAR in a season.

I don’t think that will happen. If I had to guess, I’d say he ends up at around 8-8.5. Even if he reaches his rest of season projection, he’ll still finish with one of the best seasons for the Cubs since at least 1903. Here they are below.

Rogers Hornsby: 11.1 (1929)
Sammy Sosa: 9.9 (2001)
Ernie Banks: 9.7 (1959)
Fergie Jenkins: 9.6 (1971)
Ron Santo: 9.5 (1967)
Fergie Jenkins: 9.5 (1970)
Ernie Banks: 8.7 (1958)
Ron Santo: 8.7 (1966)
Ron Santo: 8.5 (1966)
Hack Wilson: 8.5 (1930)
Fergie Jenkins: 8.2 (1969)
Ryne Sandberg: 8.0 (1984)
Ernie Banks: 7.8 (1955)
Mark Prior: 7.8 (2003)
Frank Chance: 7.7 (1906)
Ron Santo: 7.7 (1965)
Heinie Zimmerman: 7.6 (1912)
Harry Steinfeldt: 7.5 (1906)
Joe Tinker: 7.5 (1908)
Ryne Sandberg: 7.4 (1992)

Jake Arrieta (2015), Mordecai Brown (1909) and Billy Herman (1935) are next at 7.3 fWAR.

Kris Bryant is only 24 years old, though. If we limit this list to players 26 and under, it looks even better. You’ve got Ron Santo in the top two spots in 1964 and 1966 with 8.7 and 8.5 fWAR, respectively. Fergie’s 8.2 fWAR in 1969 is next and the only other player with 8 or more is Sandberg’s 1984 (8.0).

Bryant has a shot at having the best season among 26 and under Cubs since 1903.

2013 MLB Draft: Could the Astros pass on Mark Appel again?

The 2013 MLB Draft is set to begin June 6th and we're going to try and provide at least one or two things per week between now and then.

The Astros had the first pick in the 2012 MLB Draft and they again have the top pick. Last year, Mark Appel was rated by some as the top draft prospect. He's rated by nearly everyone as the top draft prospect this year. A year ago the Astros tried, prior to the draft, to negotiate an under-slot contract with Appel and failed. They chose Carlos Correa instead, paid him considerably less than slot and then picked at least two other players in the top 10 who they paid more than slot.

It was an interesting way to approach the first draft in which the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement had a clear impact. Prior to 2012, slot values were merely a suggestion. Bud Selig and other would come up with these values, pass them around and if a team went over slot, they'd just flash the team a mean look. They couldn't do anything about it. It was beautiful and it was the Cubs best path for success sooner rather than later.

What was once beautiful turned a nasty shitstained color once the CBA was signed.

I liked seeing what the Astros did. If it's something they continued to do, we could directly compare different draft strategies. The question is, though, was this strategy the result of the lack of a clear top draft prospect or was it something Jeff Luhnow and company set out to do from the very beginning? Would they do the same thing in future drafts that didn't have a clear cut number 1? This draft doesn't have one player that is far and away the best. There are a couple in Appel and Jonathan Gray who the experts say have separated themselves a bit from the rest.

I don't know and I doubt any Astros fans know either. It's literally anybody's guess.

If it was the Astros strategy from the start, maybe the performance of those they drafted would help shed some light on whether or not they would do it again. One year isn't enough. Jeff Luhnow is a very smart general manager and wouldn't let one year change a strategy. That's particularly true when you consider the sample sizes involved in those involved.

This is just an undiscredited blog throwing out wild ass guesses so I have no problem trying to come up with one based on just a year. I wouldn't be willing to reach any conclusions based on it, but it can't hurt discussing it. The most relevant thing to whether or not they continue with such a strategy would be how they performed, though as I said, one year of data is not nearly enough. Anyway…

Carlos Correa was surprisingly the number 1 pick last year. The Astros paid him about $3 million under slot. He was a very good talent. He was good enough that some thought the Cubs would take him if he was still available. Some even said he was the best high school talent in the draft, which also included Albert Almora. Correa was only 17 at the time of the draft, which is pretty young. He's only in his age 18 season right now and to this point, has only been OK.

This season he has been outstanding with nearly a .400 wOBA. The numbers may not be what you'd expect from a top pick, but he's in a full season league at the age of 18, which is impressive enough. And he's hitting the crap out of the ball. The Astros would have to be very happy with their pick at this point.

At 41st overall, the Astros went with Lance McCullers who was a top 15 talent. He fell due to demands and was even at one point the highest rated player in the 2012 draft. At just 19, and with very limited information as far as stats go, he's shown pretty good control and a high strikeout rate. He's made only 2 starts and had 3 appearances so far this year, but is also in a full season league (Class A).

With the 129th pick the Astros drafted Rio Ruiz and paid him well above slot. McCullers and Ruiz were the two they wanted when they went cheap with Correa. They got them both. Ruiz was very good in rookie league last season and then struggled in low A. He hasn't made his debut this season so he's either injured or the Astros are holding him back in extended spring training.

What to make of this? I don't know. The Cubs went pretty much by the book last year at the draft. They didn't really go over slot for anyone and didn't underpay anyone. At least not by much. Their draft was considerably different than the Astros with regards to how they spent their available money in the first 10 rounds.

Albert Almora has yet to make his debut this season, but for the most part, that's true of a lot of the Cubs top 10 picks from last year. I don't know what this means either. If this was a consistent difference between strategies then we might have something, but over one year, it's probably nothing.

There also might be another thing to consider. I have no idea how the pre-draft negotiations went between Appel and his agent, Scott Boras, and the Astros. If Appel was clearly the best prospect available, it probably isn't an issue, but with Jonathan Gray also available, the Astros may instead to deal solely with him and his agent. To the best of my Googling knowledge, Gray does not appear to have Boras as his agent.

This could potentially make the decision simpler for the Astros.

A Tale of Two Trade Deadlines

[Billy Beane and Kevin Towers] operate, as ballplayers do, without a fear of failure. This year Beane found too many phone calls that came his way that sounded like this: "I have interest in one of your players and this is what I'm going to give you for him."

"That's not deal-making," Beane said.

It's name-your-own price. The art of the deal has been replaced by the science of the deal…

I don’t know to whom Billy Beane was specifically referring to in the above quote, but I always imagine it was Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman, maybe even Jed Hoyer. I know it wasn’t Jeff Luhnow, who wasn’t a general manager when the quote was made, but I get the impression that had he been, it still wouldn’t apply.

There is only so much we can truly know about how a front office operates and does business, and just about all of it we deduce from outcomes. Who was drafted and signed? What trades were completed? To a lesser extent, the rumor mongers fill us in on who has been talking, but it’s always a little shady and a lot vague. For my money, this was the true genius of Moneyball, the book. Oh sure, the hook was the ascription of mythical powers to a handful of analytical techniques, but the meat was immersion inside a general manager’s world during free agency, the draft, and the trade deadline. Today’s hardcore baseball fan spends an inordinate amount of time putting himself in the GM’s shoes, but has surprisingly little information about what goes on there.* Many of our favorite analysts have even worked in front offices, but are silenced by unwritten codes of conduct and clearly written confidentiality agreements. They frequently tell us how much we don’t know, but rarely give specifics. The quote above is pulled from a rare gem written by Tom Verducci that puts those of us who care way too much at least in the neighborhood of the GM’s office. Here is another great one from Bloomberg Businessweek, of all places.

*One of my favorite all time experiences as a sports fan was attending NBA summer league games in 2005 in Minneapolis. My friends and I happened to sit directly in front of then Milwaukee Bucks GM Larry Harris during one of the games. For about two hours, we eavesdropped on conversations with colleagues and assistants as well as phone calls with people around the league. Harris talked about decisions he made in the draft (Ersan Ilyasova over Ryan Gomes because he was “younger and longer”), who he was regretting missing out on (“Kleiza is looking fantastic so far”), and other minutia. It was completely lacking in any groundbreaking information or scandalous gossip, and it was wonderful.

ThoyerMorph2 — If Theo and Hoyer had a child, he'd apparently look like Val Kilmer

Despite all this lack, my mind is convinced it has the full picture of who Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are and how they operate. They are misers that drive hard bargains. Not unfriendly, mind you, but cordial, professional, and uncompromising. They have absolutely no qualms about asking the moon for players that are obviously playing above their talent level, and they will relentlessly work the phones in search of a mark. Negotiating with them will not be easy or fun. You may get the impression that they know something that you don’t. “I mean, they have all that expensive analytical technology on their side … That has to count for something, right? For goodness sakes, former colleagues publicly worry about getting fleeced by Theo.” I imagine other GMs sigh when Theo or Jed gets on the phone. “I want what they are selling, but this isn’t going to be easy… Cancel all my golf outings between now and the deadline, this thing is gonna go down to the wire…I would rather be negotiating with Theo’s stalker, to be honest…”

Theo and Jed are driven by a singular, overriding goal: to acquire impact talent in a world where it’s increasingly unavailable. They recognize that their job depends on one thing only, turning this thing around as soon as possible. The public trust is not going to last long, so the sooner they can build a solid foundation, the better. To get there, a lot of things are going to have to break in their favor, and if a few business relationships are damaged in the process, that’s just the cost of doing business. “After all we ask of our players: to work harder then anyone else, do the little things, always compete, how can we possibly justify not doing the same? And if other teams don’t value their players as well as we do, whose fault is that?”

And despite his portrayal in Moneyball as all-knowing and a little bit conniving, I don’t think Billy Beane is like that. After all, there was a little pushback in the industry following the book’s publication, but it was more from talking heads than anyone else. Kenny Williams was unmercifully portrayed in the book, but it didn’t stop him from continuing to trade with Beane. In fact, Beane still pulls off as many trades as anyone, enough to make me think the portrayal was at least incomplete.

I think Beane is a lot like Jeff Luhnow. Luhnow was hired this past offseason by the Astros into a situation that makes for natural comparison with the Cubs. Both teams stink. Both are in big markets. Neither can count on imminent relief from the farm system. Both regimes are taking their teams through an organization-wide rebuilding process. Both seem to be on the cutting edge of analytics.

Yet Luhnow’s approach seems to contrast with Thoyer’s. He didn’t make a big splash in international free agency. Heaven help the team that tried to keep up with the cubs in chasing Cubans, but even in the capped IFA market the Astros eschewed the top prospects and signed a handful of lesser known players, whereas the cubs invested heavily in two big names. In the draft, the Cubs paid overslot for the guy they thought was the best player in the draft, while the Astros underslotted Carlos Correa with the first overall pick and as a result were able to lure supplemental pick Lance McCullers away from a strong commitment to Florida.

Which brings us to the trade deadline. Luhnow wasn’t doing much at all on Tuesday; he was already finished. My mind has him pegged as reasonable and easy to deal with. He knows he doesn’t have a lot to sell, so he takes advantage of any opportunity that presents itself. He moves early and isn’t concerned about winning every deal. After all, acquiring top prospects is pretty damn impossible these days. “Why not just focus on the prospects that we like, rankings be damned, get as many as we can, and hope a few pan out. Instead of wasting time haggling, lets make these moves as quickly as possible, put Cordero in the closer role, and guarantee ourselves the number one pick next year.” Other teams enjoy dealing with him and have a good idea of what to expect; they know they can turn to him first if they need to get something done quickly. Even famously abrasive internet personalities fawn over their experiences working with him.

These caricatures are certainly wrong to some extent. And Luhnow probably has stricter budgetary restrictions to consider than the Chicago duo. But I think there is a valid comparison to be made here. Both started out with poor major league talent. Luhnow made six in-season trades, Thoyer five (by my count, including the Byrd deal and buying Germano). The Astros acquired 14 prospects, the Cubs 5.

Which is the better strategy? My gut is going with Thoyer. I mean, I can’t believe they got Arodys Vizcaino for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. On the other hand, with Thoyer types seemingly propagating around the league, maybe there’s an opportunity here for someone with a more old-school way of doing business.

2012 MLB Draft Notes

It wasn't that long ago when you couldn't find much coverage of the MLB Draft. I remember a few years ago how easy it was to navigate through Google to find exactly the information you're trying to find. It's not like that anymore. Everybody covers the draft. Searching Google for specific info results in far too many hits to be of much use. I'm not the biggest fan of the way MLB has changed their draft. I much preferred the old style rapid fire days, but it's quite obvious that the changes made have created tremendous interest in the draft and that's good for baseball. I don't give Bud Selig props for too many things as I don't think he deserves many, but the changes he has helped ring to the draft has created tons of interest in it that otherwise did not exist.

The MLB Draft begins tomorrow night. MLB Network has a preview show beginning at 5 pm Central and the selections begin an hour later. Bud Selig announces the picks for the first round (31 picks) and a representative of the team announces its selections in the supplemental round (32-60). The selections will last about 3 hours so you'll have 4 hours to watch tomorrow night. Rounds 2 through 15 will be on Tuesday while rounds 16 through 40 will be completed on Wednesday.

Berselius already published an article with a few interesting tidbits from Kevin Goldstein and Jim Callis. We'll be covering the draft rumors tomorrow and the draft itself tomorrow night. Everybody is doing it now so you can pick your blog to follow along, but we hope you stick around here.

I've copied the draft order for tomorrow night and pasted it below.

PICK   TEAM
1   Astros
2   Twins
3   Mariners
4   Orioles
5   Royals
6   Cubs
7   Padres
8   Pirates
9   Marlins
10   Rockies
11   Athletics
12   Mets
13   White Sox
14   Reds
15   Indians
16   Nationals
17   Blue Jays
18   Dodgers
19   Cardinals (from Angels for Albert Pujols, Type A)
20   Giants
21   Braves
22   Blue Jays (for failure to sign 2011 first-rounder Tyler Beede)
23   Cardinals
24   Red Sox
25   Rays
26   Diamondbacks
27   Brewers (from Tigers for Prince Fielder, Type A)
28   Brewers
29   Rangers
30   Yankees
31   Red Sox (from Phillies for Jonathan Papelbon, Type A)
———————————————————————————
32   Twins (for Michael Cuddyer, modified Type A, to Rockies)
33   Padres (for Heath Bell, modified Type A, to Marlins)
34   Athletics (for Josh Willingham, modified Type A, to Twins)
35   Mets (for Jose Reyes, Type A, to Marlins)
36   Cardinals (for Pujols)
37   Red Sox (for Papelbon)
38   Brewers (for Fielder)
39   Rangers (for C.J. Wilson, Type A, to Angels)
40   Phillies (for Ryan Madson, modified Type A, to Reds)
41   Astros (for Clint Barmes, Type B, to Pirates)
42   Twins (for Jason Kubel, Type B, to Diamondbacks)
43   Cubs (for Aramis Ramirez, Type B, to Brewers)
44   Padres (for Aaron Harang, Type B, to Dodgers)
45   Pirates (for Ryan Doumit, Type B, to Twins)
46   Rockies (for Mark Ellis, Type B, to Dodgers)
47   Athletics (for David DeJesus, Type B, to Cubs)
48   White Sox (for Mark Buehrle, Type B, to Marlins)
49   Reds (for Ramon Hernandez, Type B, to Rockies)
50   Blue Jays (for Frank Francisco, Type B, to Mets)
51   Dodgers (for Rod Barajas, Type B, to Pirates)
52   Cardinals (for Octavio Dotel, Type B, to Tigers)
53   Rangers (for Darren Oliver, Type B, to Blue Jays)
54   Phillies (for Raul Ibanez, Type B, to, Yankees)
55   Padres (for failure to sign 2011 sandwich-rounder Brett Austin)
56   Cubs (for Carlos Pena, Type B, to Rays)
57   Reds (for Francisco Cordero, Type B, to Blue Jays)
58   Blue Jays (for Jon Rauch, Type B, to Mets)
59   Cardinals (for Edwin Jackson, Type B, to Nationals)
60   Blue Jays (for Jose Molina, Type B, to Rays)

Jim Callis of Baseball America has posted 3 mock drafts already and will post his final mock draft sometime tomorrow. The third one can be found here and he has the Cubs selecting Albert Almora.

6. CUBS. As much as Chicago would love a shot at one of the top three college pitchers, that probably won't happen. Instead, the Cubs will be choosing from Correa, Fried and Florida high school outfielder Albert Almora. Almora has become the front-runner here.

Projected Pick: ALBERT ALMORA.

The 3 college pitchers Callis is speaking of are all right handers. Kyle Zimmer, Mark Appel and Kevin Gausman are ranked 3, 4 and 5 by Baseball America and each is expected to be picked before the Cubs do at 6th. Callis has the Astros going with Appel as the first overall pick.

Here's some info on Almora (top 500 draft prospects):

Almora is a latter-day A.J. Hinch in that he has become a go-to player for USA Baseball national teams from a young age. Almora was USA Baseball's 2011 athlete of the year after being MVP of the 18-and-under Pan American Championships in Colombia in November 2011. He tied Hinch's USA Baseball record by playing on his sixth national team, and scouts love his grinder approach and in-game savvy. What's more, Almora has outstanding tools. The Miami signee, in one scout's words, "has no issues. He's got above-average tools everywhere, and they all play. He has tools and he uses them." He doesn't turn in blazing times when he runs in showcases (generally he's a 6.8-second runner in the 60), but his game instincts help him steal bases and cover plenty of ground in center field. Scouts consider his defense major league-ready right now, with plus grades for his accurate throwing arm. With natural hitting rhythm and plenty of bat speed, Almora is a line-drive machine with a loose swing who stays inside the ball, relishes velocity and handles spin. He should have 20-homer power down the line, sufficient if he slows down and can't play center, and a definite bonus if (as expected) he stays in the middle garden. He plays the game with both ease and energy and may have some projection left in his athletic 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame. The Miami signee is considered one of the draft's safer picks and could sneak into the first 10 selections.

Almora is ranked 7th by BA.

Jonathon Mayo of mlb.com also predicts the Cubs will go with Almora. Mayo ranks Almora 9th.

Almora has played for USA Baseball as much as any player in history. He's played in big situations and shown natural leadership abilities over the years.

He's also got many tools to get excited about. He should be an above-avearge hitter at the next level, with an ability to drive the ball to all fields. He'll have above-average power as well and shows it in games now, especially to the pull side. He's a solid average runner and knows what to do on the basepaths. Defensively, he's a plus center fielder with excellent arm strength and range.

All of his tools play up because of his plus makeup and work ethic. That combination should have plenty of teams in the first round taking a long look at him.

Callis mentioned that the Cubs may go with Carlos Correa and we've heard that elsewhere too. Baseball America and Mayo each rank Correa 5th. Correia's scouting report is below:

With the record now at 17th overall, Correa should become the highest-drafted player ever to come from Puerto Rico. He already has a big league body at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds, yet he's light on his feet and shows fluid actions with a cannon for an arm. For those reasons, the team that drafts him will allow him to stay at shortstop. While he may get a little bigger, his tools would also allow him to be a premium defender at third base. Correa has garnered comparisons to both Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman. At the plate, Correa shows excellent balance and rhythm, as well as patience, to go along with exciting bat speed and natural loft. His swing can get a little long at times, leaving him exposed to quality fastballs inside, but he's learning how to make adjustments and projects to hit for average and power. Correa is a plus runner now, but he could lose a step or two as he fills out. He is one of the youngest players in the draft class and shows excellent work ethic, dedication and maturity. Correa is committed to Miami, but it would be a shock if he winds up on campus.

If all the information I had was the scouting reports, I'd go with Correa if he's available. Almora sounds like the typical toolsy high pick to me. I'd rather go with the guy who is patient at the plate and seems more likely to become a big-time power hitter than the toolsy Almora.

The Cubs also have 2 supplemental picks (43rd for Aramis Ramirez and 56th for Carlos Pena). Who the Cubs take with those picks will depend almost entirely on who is still left and that's anybody's guess.

BA's 43rd ranked prospect is Carson Kelly, but that means almost nothing. Freddy Avis is ranked 56th.

Below is what the Cubs slot value is for each pick:

Cubs
#	$
6	$3,250,000
43	$1,196,000
56	$911,700
67	$769,600
101	$471,900
134	$343,200
164	$257,000
194	$192,500
224	$148,600
254	$138,800
284	$129,600
314	$125,000

For these 12 picks through 10 rounds the Cubs can spend $7,933,900. The Cubs can spend that money any way they want. They could give their first pick $1 million and their 2nd pick $3.196 million if they wanted. They just can't pass $7.93 million.

If the Cubs exceed that total by more than 5% they would pay a 75% tax on the overage. This means the Cubs can safely spend on these 12 picks up to $8,330,595 without penalty. For every dollar they spend above that they pay 75 cents in tax. If the Cubs went over between 5 and 10% they'd 75% in tax on the overage and lose their first round pick in next year's draft. If they go over by 10-15% they pay 100% tax and lose a first and second round pick. If they go over by 15% they pay 100% tax and lose their first round picks in each of the next two drafts. That's just not going to happen anymore. If you fail to sign a player you cannot use that money to sign another player.

So look for the Cubs to spend no more than that $8.3 million on their first 12 picks (10 rounds). After that a team can sign as many players as they want and they do not count toward the allowed budget unless the player is signed for $100,000 or more.

Signability becomes an even bigger issue with these changes.

Regardless of the system or the size of bonuses, the concept of "signability" always has been pivotal in the draft. Scouts can salivate over a player's wheels, arm, bat speed and intangibles. But it doesn't matter if his asking price is beyond an organization's comfort zone. Numerous scouting directors and front-office officials say MLB's new system has raised the stakes for teams. In the past, clubs had the option of ponying up an extra $500,000 if an area scout misread a draft pick's price point. No more.

"I think signability is more critical this year than in any other year I've been involved in the draft," an AL scouting director says. "It's going to require teams and people like me to do things we aren't normally accustomed to doing, and that's getting a bottom line figure by the draft. There will be deals cut because basically it's our jobs at stake now. If we don't sign an individual for the amount that we have to sign them, it could jeopardize our whole draft."

The Cubs have to be sure they can sign the players they draft and they have to be sure they'll sign for an amount that keeps them from incurring a penalty. It's going to be interesting to see how it works out. I expect a lot of deals will be announced sooner than in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a number of announcements the day after tomorrow. The players have little to bargain over at this point. They aren't going to get more money so they can sign for what the team offers them. There may be a little wiggle room, but not much.