Tag: christian villanueva

Journeymen of Tomorrow: The Story So Far (AAA and AA)

It’s been awhile since we’ve touched on the minor leagues this season. dmick has been busy. Seeing as I held the post of “minor league wonk” fairly recently, I thought I’d give a short synopsis of each team so far.

Iowa

Arismendy Alcantara has not been so great this year. His walk rate is down precipitously, so even though he carries a .275 average, he’s the owner of a .290 OBP. The power has shown up, especially in doubles/triples power, and it isn’t like he’s lost at the plate. I’d just like to see more power.

Javier Baez has been terrible so far. .149/.232/.311. He also leads the team in errors. It’s still quite early, but he isn’t exactly forcing the issue for the brain trust at this point.

Pet prospect Logan Watkins continues to impress in a utility role. He’s batting .265/.375/.353 in part time action; the only blemish so far is the high K rate.

Vitters is staying healthy; that’s important for him. Unfortunately, he’s also batting .196. I’m the only person on this blog who is still a believer (inasmuch as I believe he can be a major league regular or 4th OF), but it’s saying something when the FO reaches into the Iowa bag of outfielders and pulls out Chris Coghlan to replace Sweeney.

Christian Villanueva has less power this year, and he’s striking out more. Villanueva’s good 2013 put him back on the prospect map, but he’s taken a large step back this season. It’s early (of course), but he’s really struggled this year.

Kyle Hendricks has been pretty unlucky this year. He’s striking out a lot more people than he used to, which is obviously a good sign. The novice would point to his K/BB remaining pretty constant (3.7 last year, 3.7 this year) and think he hasn’t improved. This is the primary reason why K/BB is such a garbage stat. People don’t really care about the ratio, they care about how many more strikeouts a player has than walks. His K%-BB% is 18.4%, a huge improvement from last year’s 13.5%. The primary problem Hendricks has faced this season is an atypically low strand rate. It’s 61% this year, and his career number is more like 77%. You would expect nibblers like Kyle to have a lower and lower strand rate as they climb the ladder, but not this low. When that rebounds, his ERA will too (and his FIP is 2.57).

Pet Prospect Tsuyoshi Wada has been insane this season. 0.64 WHIP, 0.57 ERA, 37 K in 31.1 innings. If a SP gets traded or hurt, Wada has to be the next man up. If he isn’t, there is no justice.

Eric Jokisch has given up the longball this year but little else. His 1.19 WHIP will play, as will his 6.16 innings per start. Most impressive are his 5 walks in 37 innings.

Alberto Cabrera has been dynamite for the I-Cubs this year.

Tennessee

Jorge Soler is working his way back from his latest injury. His next injury is scheduled for May 14th.

I had a twitter spat with Sahadev Sharma and Harry Pavlidis last week about Kris Bryant. I said that I wouldn’t give Bryant a pitch in the ZIP of the plate. They said I didn’t get the purpose of the minor leagues and you wouldn’t want to admit defeat in any case. I maintain that pitching smart is still a part of development; pitching to Kris Bryant isn’t smart. He’s batting .295/.417/.543. He’s striking out too much, but who gives a shit. Kris Bryant is the best hitter in the Cubs minor league system. He’s also proving the critics at 3B right, and a move to RF is probably imminent. The little I’ve seen of Tennessee this year has been Bryant just not looking comfortable at third.

I told Sahadev that if I have to choose between pitching to Bryant or pitching to Rafael Lopez, I’m pitching to Lopez every time. Of course, Lopez has a higher OPS (.977 to .960) on the season than Bryant now. Rafael is on fire, turning in the best performance of a Cubs minor-leaguer this season. .310/.456/.521 gets a lot of people to notice.

Pet Prospect Stephen Bruno is working his way back from an injury last year, but still hitting ok. .250/.370/.369, mainly at 2B.

We can hopefully exhale about C.J. Edwards. His injury does not appear to be serious (with pitchers, they aren’t serious until they suddenly are). He’s been predictably sublime this season.

Corey Black is walking everyone right now. If he pitched against Mike Olt, I wonder what would happen (Mike Olt strikes out on 4 pitches).

Ivan Pineyro has been sturdy this year, but nothing special.

Armando Rivero is in AA for no reason. He is, right now, a MLB quality reliever. He’ll embarrass the minor leagues until he’s called up.

I thought Pierce Johnson was broken when he walked 8 in one game. Since then, he quieted down and delivered a yeoman’s performance yesterday. He’s walked more than he’s fanned. That’s not so good. I wasn’t as high on Johnson as everyone else was last year, and I think he’s showing his true colors now, more-or-less. I think I’d take at least 3 pitching prospects in our org over him right now (Tseng, Edwards, Blackburn), and there’s a possibility of a few more.

Cubs Minor League Recap: 4-8-14

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs are off to as solid a start to their season as the parent club is. They pounded out 4 hits tonight. All screaming liners, I heard. They also struck out 14 times due to bad umpiring.

Leadoff hitter and center fielder, Matt Szczur was 0-4 with a couple of strikeouts. Chris Valaika had one of those hits and one of the team’s two doubles. Javier Baez saw what Matt Szczur did and said “I can do that too.” Lars Anders was 0-4, but his name is Lars so he gets mentioned here.

About the only Cub to turn in a decent night at the plate was Christian Villanueva who was 1-3, but he too struck out twice. Seeing as Brett Jackson struck out only once, it couldn’t have been that difficult to hit the ball so they must’ve been tired.

Javier Baez also committed a throwing error, his 3rd error of the season.

Chris Rusin had a good outing going 6 inning and allowing 7 hits and 3 runs. Only two were earned. He walked no one and struck out 5

Alberto Cabrera threw 2 innings and allowed 3 hits and a run while striking out 1. Marcos Mateo is still a Cub and threw an inning to celebrate.

Daytona was postponed and Tennessee had the day off.

Kane County Cougars

It’s my intention to begin publishing the majority of these during the week at night, but the Kane County Cougars are making that difficult. They’re currently in the bottom of the 11th as I write this, tied 3-3 and their offense has sucked so I’m starting anyway (update: Cougars won 4-3 in 11).

Jacob Hannemann was 2-5 with a run, RBI and 2 strikeouts. Danny Lockhart, Jacob Rogers and Will Remillard were each 0-5. Ben Carhart was 0-4 with a couple of walks.

Yasiel Balaguert, Daniel Canela, Trey Martin and Carlos Penalver each had singles.

Jen-Ho Tseng gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings. He walked 0 and struck out 5. Gerardo Concepcion wasn’t horrible and was actually good. He threw 3 innings and shocked the fucking world by allowing only a hit. He further shocked the world by not walking anyone and he struck out 3. It was the bright spot on a shitty career so far.

Tyler Bremer threw 2 innings, allowed no hits, walked 1 and struck out. Zack Godley also threw 2 innings and allowed a hit while striking a batter out.

Minor League Recap 4-5-14

Iowa Cubs

It was a long night for the Iowa Cubs as they were beaten 11-1. Matt Szczur was 1-3 with a walk, run scored and a strikeout. Arismendy Alcantara was also 1-3 with a double. He also had an error. Javier Baez was 0-2 with 2 strikeouts and was thrown out of the game arguing the check swing strikeout. Ridiculously small sample, but he’s 0-9 with 6 strikeouts. Baez has been known to start off slow and look horrible before dominating.

Josh Vitters was 1-4 with a double and strikeout. Christian Villanueva was 1-3 with a couple strikeouts and Chris Coghlan was 2-4 with a double. The Iowa Cubs struck out 13 times and walked only once.

Kyle Hendricks got lit up in his season debut. He threw 4.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 6 runs. He walked 2 and struck out 5. Neil Ramirez threw an inning of relief and was not good (2 hits, 2 walks, 4 runs). Marcus Hatley threw 2 scoreless innings and struck out 4 while walking 1.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies had as many errors as hits. Two. Rubi Silva was 1-3 and Charles Cutler was 1-2 with the one of the two walks. Kris Bryant had the other walk and was 0-2 with a strikeout.

Jake Arrieta threw 3 scoreless, hittless innings. He did walk a batter, which came home to score and he struck out 3. Lendy Castillo did Lendy Castillo things. Corey Black thought that looked fun decided he could also do them.

Daytona Cubs

The Daytona Cubs had a fun game last night. They scored 13 runs and had 21 hits while allowing only 2 runs on 3 hits.

To put that into perspective, that’s 62.5% more runs than the Chicago Cubs have scored in their 5 games combined. It would have been 6025% more fun than the Cubs have been at any point in 2014. Since there are so many to cover, let’s do it this way.

Taylor Scott threw 7 innings and allowed only 2 hits. He walked 1 and struck out 2.

Kane County Cougars

Game 1

The Cougars picked up their postponed game and won 5-4 in 10 innings. Jake Hannemann went 2-5 with a HR and he stole 2 bases. Jacob Rogers also went 2-5.

Danny Lockart, Yasiel Balaguert, Daniel Canela (a home run), Shawon Dunston jr and Will Remillard each added hits.

Daury Torrez threw 5 innings of 5 hit, 1 run ball. He walked 3 and struck out 4. Gerardo Concepcion just wishes he could be as good as Lendy Castillo. Seriously, why is this guy even taking up a roster spot at this point? Both of them for that matter, but especially Concepcion. Jose Arias blew the save in 1.1 innings, though I’m fairly certain he came in with a whole shitload of Concepcion’s runners still on base. Thanks a lot.

Justin Amlung threw 3 scoreless innings, walked 2 and struck out 2. He got the win.

Game 2

The Cougars had only 2 hits in this one. Too bad Concepcion wasn’t pitching for the other team. They’d have had 318 hits. Ben Carhart was 1-3 with a double and Jacob Rogers was 1-3 with an RBI.

Tyler Skulina threw 6 innings of 2 hit ball. He walked a batter and struck out 2, but didn’t allow any runs. Zack Godley did his best impersonation of Gerardo Concepcion.

Better Know a Cub: Mike Olt

Mike Olt is a strong man. He's a patient man. He's a man with a good glove. And he is a man almost wholly written off in some parts. He's a man with undeniable warts and undeniable talents; this is a quality he shares with everyone in baseball not named Mike Trout. Most importantly to me, he's a man who will likely be tabbed Opening Day as the starting 3B for the Chicago Cubs. How scared should you be?

Not very. I think there's a great chance that Mike Olt provides actual, no-fooling value right away.

Pedigree

Mike Olt was born August 27, 1988 in New Haven, CT. I've been to New Haven (Yale is there, and I took a visit with a friend during our college search. Didn't get in.), and it's not a place you'd expect greatness to emerge outside of the actual campus of Yale (outer New Haven is representative of Outer Heaven, or lets go with Cabrini Green for those who aren't Metal Gear fans), but greatness did in fact emerge. Mike Olt attended UConn for three years, and he more-or-less mashed as soon as he attended. The Huskies went from a 27-28 team Olt's freshman year to 48-16, 2nd in the Big East, and 28th in the country his junior year. This was good enough for Olt to be drafted in the 1st round (48th overall by the Texas Rangers); Olt was the first Husky to be drafted in the first round since Charles Nagy in 1988 (two UConn alum were drafted in the first round in 2011; George Springer and Matt Barnes). 

Olt was immediately sent to A- to finish the season and he was great there (.400 wOBA). In 2011, he started the season in Rookie ball (this makes sense. Rookie seasons are essentially over at the conclusion of a college season, and Olt played relatively deep into the CWS anyways. Combine that with the fact that he's a 3-yr college player, and you'd feel comfortable putting him in A- for a half-season, but maybe not comfortable enough to keep him there if you have another option), but shortly earned a promotion to A+ after 15 plate appearances and continued his dominance of the minors. He earned a trip to the AFL that season; in 127 PA, he absolutely eviscerated the league with a .485 wOBA. He hit a HR every 10 PA.

All of this success masked a minor problem; Olt's strikeout rate. Olt had always carried a nice walk rate, but his strikeout rate hovered around 21% in college (23.9, 26.0, 17.8), and had predictably grown in the majors. In 2011, his strikeout rate had climbed to 25.6%. In fact, Mike Olt and Bert Jerkson had nearly identical 2011 campaigns (14.7% and 25.6% for Olt, 15.4% and 27.0% for Jackson), and Brett Jackson's campaign was in AA-AAA. Olt would have to fix this in 2012 to take the next step to universal top-prospect.

He didn't. He repeated his 24.0% mark in AA (he had 24.0% in A+ the year before), and was absolutely lost at the plate in a call-up, owning a .206 wOBA at the major league level in his 40 PA taste. Still, failing at the majors is a common occurrence even among the best prospects. As a 23-year old only in his 2nd full professional year, setbacks are the norm. 

The problems really started in the Dominican Winter League. Olt was hit by a pitch, in the head. He suffered a concussion, and his vision started getting funky. Eventually, it'd be diagnosed as a derangement of the tear ducts. The derangement eventually failed in keeping his eyes free from allergies, and with that, Olt's vision deteriorated. Olt would free-fall in 2013, going from 1.7 strikeouts per walk in 2012 to 2.4 strikeouts per walk in 2013. This apparently career-altering injury allowed the Rangers to include him as a reclamation project in a Matt Garza deal. Olt went to Des Moines and was frankly terrible.

Or was he? The line is putrid: .168/.276/.275. The wOBA (.262) would be the lowest by 60 points and any non-MLB stop in his career. However, his strikeouts went down to 24.3%. His K per BB fell from 2.5 in Texas to 1.9. His BABIP was .207; that's indicative of poor contact but also some poor luck. His ISO was much, much lower than it was in previous seasons (.107 for Des Moines). Olt was bad in Des Moines, but not as bad as his initial line looks.

In 2014, the expectation was that Olt was bound for AAA if not another organization. 3B is deeper in Chicago than any other organization, with Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Christian Villanueva, and Jeimer Candelario all having at least a reasonable shot at ending up there. 2 of those players are Top 15 prospects in baseball. Couple that with the fact that the Cubs were coming off competent campaigns from the incumbent timeshare at 3B in Luis Valbuena and Donnie Baseball, and things looked grim.

It didn't play out that way. Olt claimed his vision problems were behind him, leaving only a lingering shoulder issue that's affected him since his 2009 UConn days. The spring training line looks promising in some areas (.275/.321/.608, 5 HR) and not promising in others (15 Ks, 4 BBs, 55 PAs). Murphy was sent to Texas, and Valbuena sent to 2B (his more natural position anyway). We're at the point where Olt isn't just an option at 3B, but the expected starter there.

Offense

Year Age Team League PA BA OBP SLG wOBA HR BB SO BABIP BB% K% K/BB
2008 19 UConn Big East 251 0.318 0.386 0.577   13 25 60 0.377 10.0% 23.9% 2.4
2009 20 UConn Big East 173 0.301 0.396 0.527   8 21 45 0.387 12.1% 26.0% 2.1
2010 21 UConn Big East 304 0.318 0.404 0.659   23 34 54 0.326 11.2% 17.8% 1.6
2010 21 Rangers A- 310 0.293 0.39 0.468 0.4 9 40 77 0.378 12.9% 24.8% 1.9
2011 22 Rangers R 15 0.214 0.267 0.429 0.306 1 1 5 0.250 6.7% 33.3% 5.0
2011 22 Saguaros R 127 0.349 0.433 0.764 0.485 13 15 36 0.400 11.8% 28.3% 2.4
2011 22 Rangers A+ 292 0.267 0.387 0.504 0.399 14 48 70 0.314 16.4% 24.0% 1.5
2012 23 Rangers AA 420 0.288 0.398 0.579 0.426 28 61 101 0.327 14.5% 24.0% 1.7
2012 23 Rangers MLB 40 0.152 0.25 0.182 0.206 0 5 13 0.227 12.5% 32.5% 2.6
2013 24 Rangers AA 12 0.333 0.333 0.75 0.466 1 0 6 0.600 0.0% 50.0%  
2013 24 Cubs AAA 152 0.168 0.276 0.275 0.262 3 20 37 0.207 13.2% 24.3% 1.9
2013 24 Rangers AAA 268 0.213 0.317 0.422 0.328 11 35 89 0.288 13.1% 33.2% 2.5
                               
2008 19 UConn College 251 0.318 0.386 0.577   13 25 60 0.377 10.0% 23.9% 2.4
2009 20 UConn College 173 0.301 0.396 0.527   8 21 45 0.387 12.1% 26.0% 2.1
2010 21 UConn College 614 0.305 0.397 0.563 0.400 32 74 131 0.352 12.1% 21.3% 1.8
2011 22 Rangers R-A+ 434 0.289 0.396 0.577 0.421 28 64 111 0.337 14.7% 25.6% 1.7
2012 23 Rangers AA-MLB 460 0.276 0.385 0.544 0.407 28 66 114 0.318 14.3% 24.8% 1.7
2013 24 2 Orgs AA-AAA 432 0.201 0.303 0.379 0.309 15 55 132 0.268 12.7% 30.6% 2.4
2014 25 Cubs ST 55 0.275 0.321 0.608   5 4 15 0.290 7.3% 27.3% 3.8

Olt's carrying card has always been his power; he has a lot of it. His debut season saw him hit 23 HR in college and 9 in the pros for good measure. Until 2013, Olt's lowest SLG was the .527 he had in 2009 at UConn, a year in which he was sidelined for a sore right shoulder (I believe). Olt is also the rare specimen who improves his walk rate at each level; 10% as a freshman, 12.1% in 09 and 10, 14.7% in 2011, and finally 14.3% in 2012. Given these numbers, it's an easy walk to believe that Olt's going to rebound to something like those rates in 2014. 

Olt's K rates have consistently been in the 21 to 26 percent rate, and those are livable. The 2013 number (30.6%) is definitely not. Olt will have to shore that up to have a future at the major league level; honestly, he'd have to shore up the 21 to 26% rate he had through AA because the pitching doesn't get easier.

Olt's power is going to allow him to dictate how he is pitched, and he'll be able to draw his share of walks as a result. That being said, Olt is particularly vulnerable to some pitches; some scouts believe his swing leaves him vulnerable to top-shelf velocity and that he still chases the outside junk. 

If you were to take Olt's minor league line before 2012 and find a comparable major leaguer, you'd have a really hard time. He had the walks and strikeouts of Chase Headley, but the production of Josh Donaldson. That's somewhere in the vicinity of 3.5 to 7.7 WAR (helpful, I know). Unfortunately, that's a poor approximation of what he'd translate to in the majors. Olt's 24.3% mark in those seasons already puts him at 18th in 2013, just ahead of Yoenis Cespedes. A better comparable might be Mark Trumbo; Trumbo walked 8% of the time in 2013 and struck out 27% of the time. Those seem in line with what we might expect from Olt. Funnily enough, Trumbo and Olt share similar ISOs throughout the minors. Even this is a pale comparator, though; Trumbo had lower walk rates and strikeout rates than Olt in the Majors. LOWER than Olt's! Still, if Olt can recreate Trumbo's .250/.300/.470 line, maybe with a little higher OBP and a little lower SLG, that wouldn't shock me. Attached to a plus glove at 3rd, it'd also be quite valuable.

Defense

Olt is a plus defender at 3B. He's the prototypical size (6' 2", 210) for the position, and he's mechanically sound there. While slow, Olt is agile, with a good first step and the arm is a factor at 3rd for him. Earlier this spring training, he made a nice charge and throw to nail Mike Trout on a dribbler to left. Villanueva is a better defender than Olt (probably the best defender in the Cubs system), but Olt is definitely stout enough to be a plus there and not a minus.

Summary

Olt went from untouchable in a Dempster trade in 2012 to a reclamation project in a Garza trade in 2013. As much as one would like to think this was solely the work of a deranged tear duct, it wasn't. Olt has some swing-and-miss issues he'll have to address to improve. Luckily, even maintaining his pre-2013 rates would result in a useful player; improving among them could put Olt in the upper-tier of third basemen in short order. The leash will be short, given the myriad replacements at 3B hungry and waiting for their chance at the hot corner. Hopefully, Olt plays well enough to cement his place there for the foreseeable future.

 

OV Daily Facepalm

dailyfacepalm

Weekend Roster Moves of note

No real surprises here, except maybe Blake Parker, who was pretty decent last year in 46 innings and change for the big league club.

Starlin Castro working his way back

Castro has played in a minor league game or two and should be back for opening day. Hopefully they'll take it easy on his hamstring in the cold weather next week, though Aisley said on twitter this morning that the extended forecast for the Cubs home opener is 62 degrees, for what little it's worth.

BPro scouting notes on various prospects

Jason Parks and his BP friends saw a bunch of Cubs players yesterday ($). Parks had great things to say about Almora's fielding, especially in Arizona's troublesome sun. Not much new on Javier Baez – big league pitchers with changeups are going to own him until he adjusts. Parks also had lots of things to say about Junior Lake, including that he still has the ceiling of a 30-30 guy but right now he's pretty much a 'fastball in the middle of the plate' guy. The tools are there. Lots of nice things to say about Christian Villanueva too, especially about his bat's future.

BPro NL Central preview

Ken Funck and OV Executive Overseer-in-Chief Harry Pavlidis preview the Cubs competition ($), answering five questions about each team. My favorite thing from this piece was suddenly realizing that Ryan Braun will be playing in RF, i.e. the sun field at Wrigley. Bonifacio is a switch hitter, and if he makes the team I wouldn't be surprised to see an inside the parker at some point. Billy Hamilton might hit 5 or 6 against them (dying laughing). They're also kidding themselves to even consider that Ryan Braun could win another MVP award from the BBWAA. They also seem pretty conviced that Shark (obviously) and Travis Wood (surprisingly) will be dealt. I don't really see it with Wood, *someone* has to pitch those innings for the Cubs for the next few years. 

Re: Last weekend

It's a strange feeling to see a Wisconsin basketball team down double digits and not be too worried. Not to mention these newfangled things like dunking and alley-oops, and scoring more than 50 points in a game. What team is this?

Of course, they'll go 2-19 on 3-pointers and lose by 25 to Baylor on Thursday because that's how this tournament works.

BP’s top 10 Cubs prospects + consensus Top 14 prospects

The BP list came out, and it's a great read. Here it is, but a sub is required. I recommend getting a subscription; it really is great work. I won't share any of the bits besides the Top 10 list:

1. Baez
2. Bryant
3. Almora
4. Soler
5. Edwards
6. Alcantara
7. Johnson
8. Vogelbach
9. Villanueva
10. Candelario

No surprises on this list. Now, we have 5 rankings of at least some quality (the mlb.com and FG rankings probably barely qualify here). 14 people were vote-getters for a top 10 list (Sickels went 20 deep, but I ignored 11-20). If a player wasn't mentioned in a list, I gave them No. 11 for average purposes. Here's the list:

  BP Fangraphs BA Sickels mlb.com Average
Baez 1 1 1 1 1 1
Bryant 2 2 2 2 4 2.4
Almora 3 3 4 3 2 3
Soler 4 4 5 4 3 4
Edwards 5 7 3 5 11 6.2
Alcantara 6 5 7 6 8 6.4
Johnson 7 6 6 7 7 6.6
Vogelbach 8 8 9 9 10 8.8
Vizcaino 11 9 10 11 6 9.4
Candelario 10 11 8 8 11 9.6
Olt 11 11 11 11 5 9.8
Villanueva 9 11 11 10 11 10.4
Szczur 11 11 11 11 9 10.6
Hendricks 11 10 11 11 11 10.8

I'm going to make a list, probably today, and write it up as well. I'll be using the system that Uncle Dave and dmick created, because I think it's really, really good.

Thoughts? Can you believe that someone put Matt Szczur on their Top 10 list? 

Minor League Roundtable Part 3: Cubs Prospects ETA

This is our third part of the roundtable. Myles was not present at the time that Sitrick and I started, but his answers are toward the end.

dmick89: Of the major prospects, it's expected that Javier Baez will get to Chicago first. If he gets off to a good start at Iowa where I expect he'll begin the year, he could get called up soon. A hot April at Iowa and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in early May. The Cubs may want to cut costs somewhat, but super two status shouldn't really matter. If Baez is good enough, the Cubs can be expected to sign him long-term before he gets to that point. Otherwise, I would expect it not to be a financial issue.

I was surprised Arismendy Alcantara didn't get a promotion to Iowa this year, but he'll start there next season. Like Baez, he could get called up quickly. A lot will depend on what Barney is doing at 2nd base, but defense be damned, the Cubs won't hesitate to replace Barney.

I don't think we see Jorge Soler at the big league level next year. I can't imagine a situation in which Albert Almora pushes himself up to the big league level. I can't even imagine this front office promoting at the necessary rate to ensure it happens. For what it's worth, I don't think we'll see Almora until late 2015.

Sitrick: Yep, barring injury or Olt-esque performance, I'd expect Baez to be with the big club by early June at the latest. The PCL is going to really play to Baez's strengths, so if he struggles it's going to be really surprising to me, and really quite troubling.

I've heard people suggest that with a good season Bryant could find himself with the big club in September. That would seem unlike this front office, which has preached patience in the development process and has stressed the importance of giving players a substantial number of minor league PAs. But when a hitter's ready, a hitter's ready, and Bryant has yet to reach a league that has presented any sort of difficulty for him. If they start Bryant at Tennessee, I'd give it an outside chance we see him with the big club before the year's through, but if he goes back to Daytona even for a brief period, I think he'll run out of games to prove himself MLB-ready next year.

Agreed that Alcantara will get up, but something about his skillset makes me think he'll bounce back and forth a couple of times. I can't put my finger on why, I just get the feeling he's going to struggle initially.

If Soler starts at Tennessee and lights the world on fire, I think he's got just as good a chance at a September callup as Bryant, though at a certain point someone is going to get held off for contractual reasons, and Soler doesn't have the polish or game-hours logged that Bryant does. Which is a long way of saying I agree, I think he's a long shot to end up in the majors next year.

Could Pierce Johnson make it by September if everything falls the right way? Whichever of Christian Villanueva and Mike Olt that doesn't get traded will probably get a look. Then there are the lesser impact guys, Hendricks and Szczur being the guys immediately to come to mind.

dmick89: I made fun of the idea of Bryant starting the season at 3rd base by suggesting something even more ridiculous. I still think it's a silly idea to think he could start the season with the Cubs, but I do think he's got a good chance to move quite quickly through the system. Bryant is the first higher end prospect the Cubs have had since Thoyer took over that went to college. Since I looked at Jacoby Ellsbury's career recently, he was a college-aged kid the Sox drafted when Theo ran the team and he reached the big leagues quickly. I think Bryant could be even better and reach it more quickly.

I don't think it's likely. I think he still spends all of 2014 in the minors, but if he's proving to be too good for the levels he's at, I think the team might promote him faster than we've seen them do so far.

I think Pierce Johnson has a shot, but I expect a good season will get him to AAA by the end of the year. Pitchers can be promoted more quickly than position players. A team may need a starter if a couple are injured so it's entirely possible he's up next year and even throws quite a few innings. I doubt it.

I'm not sure what to make of Alcantara. I think he has a good chance to be productive at the MLB level, but I also think he has a good chance of being a back-up or utility player. Or never even catching on and being good enough for that. He'll be highly ranked after this year, but he's one who can fall quickly, too.

At some point you run out of room on the roster for prospects so we may be digging too deep at this point.

Sitrick: Of course, there are only so many roster spots. I'm mostly expecting to see prospects at areas of volatility on the roster; we saw what, 4 different players at 3B this season? (Lewis, Valbuena, Murphy and Ransom). I could see Baez, Valbuena, Murphy, and Olt/Villanueva all getting ABs there in 2014. Center will likely be just as in flux, barring a Jacoby Ellsbury addition (sidenote: this is another reason I don't see the club signing Ellsbury, as reports are that the FO really loves Almora and I can't see them signing anyone that will block him beyond 2014). And the inevitable rotation injuries will almost undoubtedly clear the way for Hendricks or Johnson if they're ready. Combine that with trades and various other maneuverings and I think the roster concerns are less of an issue than who is going to be ready to contribute.

Sitrick: Wait, I have no idea where I got Lewis from. Brain fart. I think I got Cody Ransom confused with Colby Lewis? I'm a dumb person. Anyway.

dmick89: I think it's a big mistake to not sign free agents because you really like a prospect who just played some ball at A level. The number of prospects who GMs have really liked at that level who didn't pan out are in the hundreds and maybe thousands. I get why the Cubs are excited with Almora, but the guy was a high school pick and is at least two years away. We've seen how slow they've been at promoting. Best case for Almora is at the end of 2015. I don't think you can hold a spot open for a guy who hasn't even reached A+ yet. If they sign a CF, Ellsbury or another one, they can always move that guy to LF or RF. Or move Almora to one of those positions. You still need 3 outfielders so I have trouble seeing how their like of Almora would have an impact on whether or not they'd sign a CF this offseason.

If the Cubs are keeping a spot open for Javier Baez, I get that. He's very close to MLB ready.

Soler has two options left, right? Pretty sure he's eligible for a fourth. The Cubs will undoubtedly use the third one in 2014, but I bet they wouldn't mind having one in their pocket if needed. Due to that, I could definitely see Soler getting called up sooner than I initially thought.

Sitrick: I see your point, and I agree with you, but I've seen a number of reports about how the Cubs don't want a long term option in center precisely because of Almora. I think end of 2015 isn't exactly best case, but is probably the likely case. I think that's why they want lake in center if he can hack it, because he's a good seat warmer that can be ditched without much trouble or heartache.

dmick89: They always say "you can never have too much pitching." This is correct, but what they should be saying is that "you can never have too much talent." I think this applies to the possibility of acquiring a CF or another outfielder this offseason. If Almora progresses quickly, and the Cubs had gone out and signed a CF this offseason, they won't complain about having too much talent.

Regarding best case, aren't we using Baez as an example? He was drafted a year earlier. Both are high school picks. Two years after being drafted Baez was at AA. It's possible he goes back though more likely he's up at Iowa. I think it's possible Baez gets called up early, but probably more likely it's near the end of the season (July or later). That would be July 2015 or later for Almora. Then there's the performance difference to this point. Baez has been a lot better, stayed healthy and plays a more premium position. Best case is probably sooner than the end of 2015, but it would mean that Almora went absolutely freaking nuts at the plate next year. I've seen no indication, scouting or performance, to suggest he's capable of that. I don't know, but based on the relative difference in talent between the two, and I think it's considerable, I think we should expect a later call-up than we would for Baez.

I guess if I'm Tom Ricketts and I've got a GM who insists we wait for Almora, I'm asking him to stake his reputation and his job on it. He damned well better be right if he's passing on available free agents in favor of what currently is still a longshot.

Myles: I think you are both far too aggressive with your Baez and Alcantara promotions. They have preached the 500 AAA appearances thing since they got here. Baez won't even have 500 AA appearances until June I'd he started there this season. Alcantara will be first (June) and I bet Baez is a September callup.

I also think Bryant has half a chance for a cup of coffee in September. He's obviously advanced, as is the type of guy that this FO loves.

Sitrick: The FO has also discussed prospects "beating" their development plan, and if prospects perform, they'll be promoted. As Parks always preaches, successful organizations tailor their development plan to the player and are flexible.

Myles: I also agreed with dmick about not worrying about blocks, especially ones so far away. I'd go so far to say that I'd sign an impact 3B if it "blocked" Baez when he gets up here. Talent is talent, and it's the best problem in the world to have when you've got too many capable guys. You trade the one you think you've scouted better than the other guys, and turn your excess talent into pitching or some other commodity. That being said, obviously the Cubs shouldn't be making it a priority to block their own guys.

That's true, and I hope you're right. As good as Baez' year was, it wasn't exactly without problems. He can still learn things (whether he could hope to learn them in AA, where he's clearly too talented remains to be seen).

Sitrick: Thoyer is already on record that they expect Baez to start the year in Iowa.

Myles: Pinning CF on a guy 2 years removed from high-school, who has had his share of injuries already, seems just extraordinarily loose to me. Of course, he's embarrassing the AFL so far, so who knows?

All I know is that Iowa is going to be a hot ticket at some point in 2014. Compared to the shitshow it was in 2013, it's going to be nice for the good folks of Des Moines.

If I had to lay a timeline when I think the Top 6 prospects arrive, it be something like:

Baez: August/September 2014
Bryant: April 2015
Soler: June 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: September 2015
Johnson: April 2015

Of course, this assumes they dont' all bust terribly.

Sitrick: The I-Cubs are 3.5 hours away from me, and I am already planning on attending at least a game at every home series in April. It's gonna be awesome.

My timeline:

Baez: June 2014
Bryant: April 2015 with an outside shot at September 2014 if he hits and Left/3B is a shitshow.
Soler: May/June 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: September 2015
Johnson: April 2015 with an outside shot at September 2014 if the team surprisingly contends and there's an injury, or they want him to help out the bullpen.

I'm aggressive on Baez because, as has been said by you yourself Myles, I'm not sure the things Baez has to learn can be learned in the minors. AA parks couldn't contain him, and the PCL isn't going to do much better.

Myles: I really do think the first time he struggles, it'll be in Chicago.

dmick89: Baez: July 2014 (Cubs wait to avoid super 2)
Bryant: April 2015
Soler: April 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: April 2016
Johnson: September 2014

As one of you said, this assumes they don't crap out and since we're talking 6 guys it's guaranteed to happen to some of them. If all 6 reach these expectations, the Cubs are going to be really really good.

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Kyle Hendricks

kyle-hendricksKyle Hendricks is a 6-3, 190 pound right-handed starting pitcher. He turns 24 on December 7th and was drafted 8th round of the 2011 Draft out of Dartmouth College. Here's what Baseball America wrote at the time of the draft.

An economics major at Dartmouth, Hendricks brings a heady presence to the mound. He does more than just outsmart hitters, though, as he has legitimate stuff too. While he pitched exclusively in relief for Spokane, Hendricks mixes four pitches and has a starter's profile. He uses a sneaky 89-91 mph fastball that can get as high as 94, a sharp curveball, an occasional slider and a plus changeup. The changeup is his best pitch and one he's willing to throw in any count. "You watch him pitch and you can never tell what he's throwing," Hulett said. "His pitching tempo is always the same, whether its a fastball or a changeup. He's just got a good idea out there with great composure and great presence on the mound."

The Cubs acquired Hendricks, the team's minor league starting pitcher of the year, from the Rangers last summer for Ryan Dempster. The Cubs also acquired 3rd baseman Christian Villanueva.

Performance

Hendricks was more of a throw-in when the Cubs acquired him. He was someone who had pitched well, but didn't have a high ceiling. He still does't, but he's now pitched well enough that he's climbed the Cubs prospect rankings.

He had a dominating season in AA and pitched quite well in AAA. At Tennessee, Hendricks threw 126.1 innings over 21 starts. He struckout 101, walked only 26 batters, hit 5 batters and threw just one wild pitch. Among AA pitchers who threw 80 or more innings, Kyle Hendricks' 1.85 was the best. No other pitcher was below 2. His 2.65 FIP was third best.

In AA he struckout 19.9% of the batters and walked only 5.5%. He allowed only 3 home runs. His 14.8% K-BB% ranked 22nd in AA.

Hendricks was promoted to Iowa near the end of the season and made 6 starts. He threw 40 innings and struckout 27 batters. He walked 8. His K% dropped to 17%, but his walk rate remained at 5%.

His walk rate was even better last year. Overall this season, Hendricks made 27 starts and threw 166.1 innings. He allowed 142 hits and only 5 of them were home runs. He struckout 128 and walked 34. He struckout 19.2% of the batters faced and walked 5.1%.

Hendricks performed better than the Cubs could have expected when they acquired him.

Scouting

GW wrote about Kyle Hendricks scouting report just a few weeks before the season ended so I'm just going to quote him (thanks, GW).

The Good:

  • He’s dominated hitters in the minors due to above-average control and command of his four-pitch repertoire (fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup)
  • His simple mechanics allow him to consistently repeat his delivery — both from the full windup and from the stretch.
  •  Hendricks did a nice job of changing speeds and mixing his pitches…
  • [He] received swinging strikeouts on both his changeup — which showed plus potential — and on his cutter…

The Bad:

  • He has a fringe-average fastball in the 87-91 mph range.
  • I was a little surprised in his lack of athleticism.
  • His curveball was just fringe-average on this day and did not result in many swings and misses — most were fouled off.

It would be easy to look at the ERA and FIP that he has posted in his career and get really excited about Hendricks. Go ahead and get excited, but temper your expectations. It's hard to work at the MLB level when your fastball often sits in the 80s. We don't see a lot of guys throwing 80 mph fastballs because they usually aren't very good. They tend to get hard at the MLB level.

Still, there's something to be excited about despite the lack of velocity. I can't really remember the last time the Cubs had someone with the command that Hendricks has shown. Strikeouts and walks are the two most predictive pitching stats. You like guys who strikeout a lot, but more than that, you need separation between the two. You also need to keep the walks under control. You can't strikeout 30% of the batters and walk more than 15% and expect to remain a starter, or a reliever for very long. However, Hendricks seems to have a high enough strikeout rate that we're going to see him in Chicago. He's got a chance to be as good as a mid-rotation pitcher, but could safely fall into a number 4 or 5. That has value.

Hendricks has 4 pitches: fastball, slider, curve and his best pitch is his change-up. His change-up was ranked as the best in the Carolina League in 2012 by Baseball America. His mixes up his fastballs too. He throws a 4-seamer, 2-seamer and cutter. He commands all his pitches well and based on eye from this video, he repeats his delivery with ease. I won't add anything else because of my untrained eye.

Kyle Hendricks vs. Wilmington (5/20/2012) from Jason Cole on Vimeo.

Outlook

Hendricks will probably return to AAA at the start of next season as a 24-year old. There's a chance he could earn a spot in the Cubs rotation with a strong spring training, but Theo and company have been deliberate and will likely want him to get more work. The good news is that the work for him can pile up quickly. He averaged nearly 6.1 innings per start in 2013. he did average even more in AAA (one out shy of 7 innings per start).

He pitched either 7.0 innings or 8.0 innings in 12 of his 27 starts. Interestingly, there were only two starts (back to back starts in May) in which Hendricks was pulled mid-inning. Each start he pitched 6.2 innings. Compared to C.J. Edwards, Hendricks is a throwback to when they threw 300 innings per season.

At some point in 2013 we will see Hendricks make his Major League debut. I'm going to guess it happens around mid-May.

If he can maintain his K-BB% he can be good even without the high strikeout rate. The guy will throw strikes and he mixes his pitches well enough to be an MLB starter.

Considering he was viewed as a throw-in, the Cubs have to be super happy with what they've gotten in return.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Jeimer Candelario

In continuing with the theme of Cubs' 3rd basemen, I thought I'd take a look at the crazily young (for his history) Jeimer Candelario.

Jeimer has an interesting story. He was originally born in NYC, but was raised in the Dominican Republic. As a 16-year old there, he was signed to a hefty $500,000 dollar contract. From there, he was sent to DoSL as a 17-year old (where he dominated). He was sent to Boise in 2012 (as an 18-year old), where he was quite adequate. In fact, if you combine his 17/18 year old seasons, he had a "full-season" line of 143 G, 615 PA, 11 HR, 100 RBI, 6 SB, .307/.387/.435. That was good enough to earn Jeimer a pretty aggressive promotion to full-season Kane County for 2013.

Performance

Candelario played the whole season at third and at Kane County. On the year, he hit .256/.346/.396, remarkably similar to his .281/.345/.396 mark from last year. His line this year was actually considerably more impressive: his BABIP fell 37 points, but his on-base skills rose (11.9% BB rate), his contact rate went up (15.4% K rate from 17.7%), and his power increased too. When your power and patience both grow and your K rate falls, it's a successful season, basically no matter what. He also hit 35 doubles and homered 11 times, which is pretty impressive power.

Candelario was the 11th youngest player in the league this year (Albert Almora is 8th on this list). If you include players with at least 300 PAs, he's 5th. The other players are Orlando Arcia (an intriguing prospect in the Brewers system who also had a .647 OPS this season), Carlos Correa (the #1 pick in 2012), Dorssys Paulino (another intriguing prospect in the Indians system who also had a .646 OPS this season), and Byron Buxton (the #1 prospect in all of baseball). That's quite the company to be in, honestly.

Scouting

The book on Candelario was that he lacked the body and range to play 3B (where his bat plays just fine), and he might have to move to a corner or 1B (which would make Candelario a much, much less impressive prospect). However, those concerns have more-or-less evaporated. Candelario was thinner this year, with improved range. He's also got a quick bat, which manifests itself in his low K rate. He's also still growing, and his power could end up in the 15-20 bombs a year range. 

Baseball America was bullish on Jeimer last year, listing him as the #8 prospect in the system. He was #15 in Sickels' list (whose main negative was the defense, which improved). Baseball Prospectus doesn't have a lot on him; he didn't make the Top 10, but was one of the Prospects on the Rise. Reports are basically uniformly complimentary of his bat and approach and critical of his defense. If that critique goes away (and my feeling is that it will), Candelario could take a huge step forward next season.

With a 19-year old in full-season ball, you've also got to worry about adjusting to life in the grind, away from home. Whether it's related to his birth in NYC or not (I'm not really sure how long he stayed in America before leaving for the Dominican), he's seemed to adjust to that transition very well. 

Outlook

There's nothing for him left in KC, so I'd imagine he'll play every game next season in Daytona. If his glove can just be adequate at 3rd, there's no reason for him not to start being considered as a potential big-league regular at the position (for the Cubs or elsewhere). 3B is the biggest logjam the Cubs currently have, with Kris Bryant being a potential MVP candidate down the road, Olt being a year away from being untouchable and still having every chance to be a successful 3B, and the suddenly rejuvenated Christian Villanueva all being ahead of him on depth chart if not the prospect list. Call me crazy, though; I'm not at all sure I wouldn't rather have Candelario than even Olt at this point (which speaks both of my feelings about Candelario and Olt, I guess). In an average system, Candelario is the type of prospect that would be 5th-7th in the organization. In the Cubs, he's in the discussion for the 10th spot or so. As bad as the Cubs are in the majors (and they're horrible), the minors are going to be so much fun to watch next year.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

 

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Christian Villanueva

Christian Villanueva came to the Cubs in the Ryan Dempster deal at the 2012 trade deadline. A J2 signing by the rangers in 2008, Villanueva cuts a less than imposing figure, standing 5'11-160. His 2011 campaign hinted at the potential for surprising pop, however, as he ISO'd .186 for the Rangers' Low-A Hickory affiliate. Combined with his sterling glovework at third, Villanueva's time at Hickory earned him the attention of the scouting community, with Baseball America slotting him as the 9th ranked prospect in the Rangers system and 100th overall.

2012 saw a promotion to high-A Myrtle Beach and a .50 point drop in ISO for Mr. Newhouse before the trade deadline. That, combined with the Rangers' system depth at third-base dropped his stock enough that he could be acquired for two months of an aging Ryan Dempster. Arriving at Daytona seemed to help Villanueva find his power-stroke again, as he completed his 95 PAs there with 4 homers after hitting only 10 in the 425 PAs previous.

2013 brought with it a promotion to Tennessee and the hope that the power outage for the lion's share of 2012 was an aberration.

Performance

You could say that 2012 was a mixed bag for Villanueva. The power stroke returned, posting an ISO of .208, a career high in slugging (.469), hitting 19 homers and leading the southern league in both doubles and extra base hits. But the overall slash line left something to be desired, as he hit .261/.317/.469. Villanueva had never hit for a high average, nor had he shown a particularly patient approach (never posting a walk rate over 7% for a full season). What he had done, before arriving at Tennessee, was show an impressive ability to get on base via the HBP, stepping in front of 12 pitches in 2011 and 21 in 2012. He was only plunked 9 times in 2013, however, and combined with his worst walk rate since rookie ball, the result was his lowest OBP in pro ball. 

He was recognized by Baseball America as being the best defensive 3B in the southern league, reflecting the excellent value Christian brings with his glove. He was also recognized as the third-base representative on the Southern League postseason All-Star Team. That's the good news for Villanueva: as good as his glove is, a .317 OBP in AA isn't completely damning to his value as a prospect, particularly if he can continue to hit for power.

One thing to note is that Villanueva got off to a frigid start, batting .205/.275/.313/ in April and .257/.312/.450 before the All-Star Break. His .270/.328/.509 line in the second half is quite encouraging, and hopefully is a prelude to a 2014 offensive breakout.

Scouting

BA had this to say in the Prospect Handbook before the season: 

Blocked by Adrian Beltre and Mike Olt in Texas, Villanueva's chances for future playing time improved dramatically when the Rangers dealt him and strike-throwing righthander Kyle Hendricks to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. He still has to worry about Jeimer Candelario and perhaps Javier Baez (if he moves to third base), but Villanueva suddenly has a lot more upward mobility. On the 20-80 scouting scale, one Cubs official described him as having 80 makeup, 70 defense and questionable power. Villanueva's short stroke is conducive to line drives more than longballs, and he tends to inside-out quality fastballs and serve them to the opposite field. He has the potential for average power, but he'll have to get stronger and turn on more pitches to get there. He can hit for solid average and provide some doubles. He has fringy speed but has the instincts to steal bases if the defense doesn't pay attention to him. Defense is where Villanueva really shines. He has the first-step quickness, hands, arm strength and savvy to make tough plays look routine. Chicago added him to its 40-man roster and will send him to Double-A in 2013. He could get a big league audition sometime the following year.

2013 has changed a few things for Villanueva on this front; for one, Mike Olt is now theoretically blocking him once more, although the gap between their perceived value is shrinking quickly. And while the latest rumors have Javier Baez moving to second base now instead of third, the drafting of Kris Bryant muddles Villanueva's future at the hot corner, and Candelario is still a factor. Another year of solid pop has at least quieted some of the questions about Villanueva's power stroke, but with it have come steadily increasing K-rates, adding a point in K% at each stop along the minor league path. Meanwhile his walk rate continues to drift somewhere between crappy and untenable, with BABIPs that are solid but not extraordinary, hovering mostly around the .300 mark for the lion's share of his minor league career.

All that said, the defense is the carrying tool, and his bat really just has to be decent for Villanueva to be a valuable player.

Outlook

The third-base situation in Des Moines figures to be fairly messy next season, with Villanueva, Olt, Bryant, and potentially Baez all at decent odds to find ABs there. Given this, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see Villanueva get traded as part of a package for a starter this winter, as his value is more on the uptick than Olt. In an ideal scenario (barring a trade), Olt lights the world on fire in March next season and earns a spot on the big league roster, leaving Villanueva to man third at Iowa until Bryant is ready to move on from Tennessee. Regardless, I would be fairly surprised to see Olt and Villanueva both in the organization come next year's trade deadline. Third base is one of the few areas of serious organizational depth at the moment, and the major league club is going to need pitching badly if it plans on contending anytime soon.

For his part, Villanueva should be a useful piece for whatever major league club decides to give him a look. I'd set his floor as a Barney-esque defensive replacement bench bat, his ceiling as a first-division starter if the power plays in the majors and the strikeout rate stays under control, and splitting the difference as a second division regular being the most likely outcome for his career.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews