Raicel Iglesias Stats, Video, and a Comparison with Armando Rivero

Raicel Iglesias is a right-handed Cuban pitcher who defected in October of last year. His first attempt failed, after which he hid out until running out of food and water. Iglesias is sometimes known as Raisel (which I actually believe is correct), and commonly misspelled as Raciel. He pitched for Isla de la Juventud in Cuba’s National Series for three seasons, will turn 24 in April, and will be a free agent in the major leagues as long as he is cleared by OFAC prior to July 2nd.

Iglesias was used primarily as a reliever in Cuba, and he’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds. He has gained fans among scouts in the States by virtue of his recent performances with the National team. Here’s Ben Badler:

While Iglesias threw 88-92 mph at the WBC in March, he was more impressive on Cuba’s U.S. tour, where he threw 92-95 mph. Igelsias also added and subtracted from a sweepy 76-81 mph breaking ball, varying the shape on it to get a surprising number of swings and misses on the pitch.

Raicel Iglesias Stats

	Tm	Age	G	GS	IP	W	L	AB	TBF	H	R	ER	ERA	K	BB	BBI	2B	3B	HR
2011	IJV	21	28	0	64	3	2	229	271	58	37	30	4.22	42	31	3	5	2	5
2012	IJV	22	30	3	76.7	1	1	282	344	72	33	28	3.29	53	54	5	10	2	3
2013	IJV	23	15	2	53.7	4	2	182	209	35	12	10	1.68	50	20	2	10	1	1
2013.5	IJV	23	15	0	29	0	7	117	131	37	20	18	5.59	24	10	3	4	1	2
Totals			88	5	223	8	12	810	955	202	102	86	3.47	169	115	13	29	6	11

	Age	IP	ERA-	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	GB%	HRCON-	BABIP-
2011	21	64	80	5.9	4.4	8.2	0.7	6	3	7	77	90
2012	22	76.7	76	6.2	6.3	8.5	0.4	6	9	-2	51	101
2013	23	53.7	46	8.4	3.4	5.9	0.2	15	2	-2	41	89
2013.5	23	29	125	7.4	3.1	11.5	0.6	9	-1	0	103	119
Totals			78	6.8	4.6	8.1	0.4	8.6	4.3	1.0	66	98

It’s been a while since I profiled a pitcher, and I’m changing the way I show the numbers a bit. The peripheral percentages shown here (K%, BB%, GB%) are relative to league average. Positive numbers are good for K’s and GB’s, while negative numbers are good for BB’s. For ERA, homerun per contact, and BABIP, on the other hand, the numbers shown are a ratio of the player’s stats to league average. Numbers less than 100 are below league average, which is good for homers and earned runs.

Cuban Comps

Given that Iglesias has primarily been used as a reliever, I don’t think it would be all that meaningful to compare him to recent high-profile defectors like Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa and Odrisamer Despaigne. Cub farmhand Armando Rivero, on the other hand, does seem like a pretty good comp.

	Yr	Age	G	GS	IP	ERA-	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	GB%	HRCON-	BABIP-
Raicel Iglesias	12-13	22-23	60	5	159.3	77	7.2	4.7	9.5	4.8	-1.6	58	101
Armando Rivero	10-11	22-23	48	0	98.7	64	7.8	3.6	11.0	0.9	1.4	82	97

Iglesias pitched quite a bit more than Rivero, but his control wasn’t as good. Rivero signed with the Cubs for $3.1 million last year, and rose rapidly through the farm system. Given the similarities, $3 million is not a bad initial bet for what Iglesias will receive. Demand for Cuban pitchers may be a little soft right now, however, given that Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez has yet to impress in Phillies camp, and Dalier Hinojosa only received $4.25 million from the Red Sox, so Iglesias may actually come fairly cheap.

Video

Despaigne, Gonzalez, and Hinojosa

In case you are curious as to how the aformentioned defectors shake out in the new data that I’ve acquired, here you go:

	YR	Age	G	GS	IP	ERA-	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	GB%	HRCON-	BABIP-
Miguel A. Gzlz	09-12	22-25	52	51	342	59	6.7	2	7.0	-4.1	3.7	67	96
Dalier Hinojosa	10-13	24-27	56	54	365	77	7.7	2.7	10.0	-1.8	-0.8	117	100
Odrisamer Desp.	11-13	24-26	68	68	442	77	6.6	3.7	7.2	1.1	7.7	72	96

Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez was a good pitcher in Cuba; the numbers relative to league average illustrate that better than my previous post on the subject. Given the the change in his agreement with the Phillies (from $48 million initially down to $12 million), and the middling reports from spring training, I wonder whether he is completely healthy these days. Odrisamer Despaigne, who is unsigned, but has been cleared, was pretty good at generating ground balls.

For more defector profiles, go here.

Misael Siverio Stats and Video

Cuban News

The notable free agent news of the day is that the Cubs are unlikely to sign Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, per CSN’s Patrick Mooney. This is a good thing, I think, unless his price ends up dropping to the $10 million range. At that point, he might be a decent gamble.
The Cuban National Team is currently in the midst of a five-games series against a team of college players from the US. Lefty Misael Siverio took this opportunity to inconspicuously disappear into the ethnically-dense and culturally-rich city of Des Moines.

Siverio Scouting Report From Victor Mesa

Cuban National Team manager Victor Mesa told the USA today after the defection:

You may see the gentleman that defected working as a laborer. He came with us because he’s a left-hand thrower but he’s not that great of a pitcher.

That sharp intake of breath you just heard was the Red Sox’ front office gasping in admiration. That’s a grade 70 smear campaign right there. Agent Jaime Torres’s response seems to be along the lines of: “He’s left-handed, you idiots! Haven’t you ever heard of Jesse Orosco?” (Note: this is a loose translation.)

I would love to rebuke Mesa with the power of my spreadsheets, but I’m not sure he’s all that far off in his evaluation.

Video and Amateur Scouting Report

Siverio is twenty-four and was a starter for the Villa Clara team in la Serie Nacional that won the championship this year. He started twice in the final five-game set, which is available for online viewing. I have to admit that I find these games captivating, despite all the pointless noise from the stands. Cuban fans seem to have eschewed the vuvuzela craze in favor of actual trumpets, trombones, and something that sounds like a siren.

Misael’s main weapon seems to be a slow, sweeping curveball that he’s willing to throw in any count. His fastball sits at 86-87 miles per hour, and runs in on right-handed hitters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPzLtiROQ5A

Misael Siverio Stats

	Tm	Age	G	GS	IP	W	L	AB	TBF	H	R	ER	ERA	K	BB	BBI	2B	3B	HR
2008	VC	19	22	16	51.7	5	2			62		26	4.53	48	28				5
2009	VC	20	29	4	66.0	6	2			50		12	1.64	64	31				4
2010	VC	21	30	1	67.3	5	3	272	300	82	36	35	4.68	79	22	5	9	1	7
2010*	VC	21	7	0	8.7	0	2	40	46	15	10	10	10.38	7	4	0	1	0	2
2011	VC	22	18	17	101.0	9	7	373	429	86	40	35	3.12	94	47	4	16	2	5
2011*	VC	22	3	2	10.3	1	2	35	44	7	6	5	4.36	4	5	1	1	0	1
2012	VC	23	20	13	80.0	5	5	312	359	93	37	33	3.71	55	38	4	18	2	3
2012*	VC	23	2	0	5.3	1	0	24	24	8	2	2	3.38	3	0	0	2	0	1
2013-1	VC	24	10	10	62.7	5	5	227	247	55	17	13	1.87	42	13	2	7	1	3
2013-2	VC	24	10	10	55.7	4	2	209	232	55	12	12	1.94	39	21	3	8	1	1
2013*	VC	24	2	2	10.0	0	0	36	40	11	4	4	3.60	4	1	0	2	0	1
Totals			153	75	518.7	41	30			524		187	3.24	439	210				33

	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	dt K/9	dt BB/9	dt HR/9	dt NERA
2008	19	51.7	8.4	4.9	10.8	0.9			8.1	5.1	1.4	4.56
2009	20	66.0	8.7	4.2	6.8	0.5			8.4	4.2	1	2.99
2010	21	67.3	10.6	2.9	11.0	0.9	26.3	7.3	10.4	3.6	1.3	5.39
2010*	21	8.7	7.3	4.2	15.6	2.1	15.2	8.7
2011	22	101.0	8.4	4.2	7.7	0.4	21.9	11.0	8.9	4.5	0.7	3.68
2011*	22	10.3	3.5	4.4	6.1	0.9	9.1	11.4
2012	23	80.0	6.2	4.3	10.5	0.3	15.3	10.6
2012*	23	5.3	5.1	0.0	13.5	1.7	12.5	0.0
2013-1	24	62.7	6.0	1.9	7.9	0.4	17.0	5.3
2013-2	24	55.7	6.3	3.4	8.9	0.2	16.8	9.1
2013*	24	10.0	3.6	0.9	9.9	0.9	10.0	2.5
		518.67	7.6	3.6	9.1	0.6

**Playoffs*

Notes: dt-prefixes indicate Clay Davenport’s translations. The 2013 season was split into a first half, in which everyone played, and a second in which 8 qualifying teams advanced.

The press has been trumpeting Siverio’s under-2 ERA in 2013, and this year does seem to have been a very good one for the pudgy left-hander, but I’m a little dubious as to the track record as a whole. After starting for most of the season as an 18-year old, Siverio was shifted to the bullpen for two years prior to a move back to the rotation at age 21. He also seems to have spent half the season in the ‘pen at age 23. When deciding whether to invest in a Cuban pitcher, “bounced in and out of the rotation” is not something you want to see on a resume. Let’s take a look at how he compares to some of the other defectors profiled so far.

Cuban Comps

	Yrs	Ages	G	GS	IP	TBF	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	ERA	WHIP
Mig Alf G	2010-12	23-25	40	38	245	1021	6.2	2.3	8.8	0.6	16.5	6.2	3.49	1.23
Dalier	2010-13	24-27	62	59	396.7	1689	7.7	2.7	9.0	1.0	20.1	7.1	3.79	1.31
Odrisamer	2010-13	23-26	100	100	647.7	2785	6.8	3.7	8.5	0.5	17.5	9.6	3.38	1.35
Misael	2011-13	22-24	65	54	325	1216	6.7	3.5	8.7	0.4	17.5	9.1	2.88	1.35

I tried for at least three full seasons worth of recent data. For Siverio, I included his 2012, even though it includes 7 relief appearances mixed in with 13 starts. Siverio has an advantage in ERA, driven by his stellar results from 2013. Aside from that, his walk rate is higher than you would like, and his strikeout rate is not on the level of Dalier Hinojosa’s. His suppression of homeruns has been good, on the whole.

If you wanted to make the case for Siverio, it’s that he’s younger than the rest of the defectors, left-handed, and may have made some strides in 2013. Follow that path too frequently, and you may end up with more players in your AZL bullpen than you know what to do with. On the whole, I think that he and Odrisamer Despaigne are on a tier below Gonzalez and Hinojosa.

Previously profiled defectors are Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa, Odrisamer Despaigne, Dariel Alvarez and Aledmis Diaz, and Alexander Guerrero.

Dariel Alvarez Stats, Aledmis Diaz Stats, and Endless Cuban Comps

Updates: If interested in more defector profiles and comparisons, here are Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa, Odrisamer Despaigne, Alexander Guerrero, and Misael Siverio.

In case you are looking for some info to browse through while waiting for Matt Garza to leave town.

I was initially planning to write up Misael Siverio, a Cuban lefty who disappeared into a cornfield in Des Moines Tuesday night, but a few position players have made the news recently, so I’ll run through them first.

Noticias de Cuba

Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez will probably sign next week, and Dalier Hinojosa sometime after that.
Jesse Sanchez doesn’t mention the Cubs as being in on Leandro Linares.
Henry Urrutia has been called up by the Orioles. Urrutia is a 26-year old slugging outfielder who signed with the O’s for $779k last July. Keith Law seems to think he’s a DH-only, but he looks reasonably athletic.

Dariel Alvarez Stats

The Baltimore Sun is reporting that outfielder Dariel Alvarez has agreed to a deal with the Baltimore Orioles for $800k. Alvarez is 25 years old, 6’2″, 190 lbs, and defected in August of last year. Despite the fact that the Cubs aren’t signing him, I wanted to take a look at his numbers, given that his price was significantly less than some others (Puig, Soler, Cespedes, etc…) have received.

	Team	Age	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	R	RBI	SH	SF	HBP	BB	SO	GIDP
2007	Cam	19	128	125	32	3	0	0	0	1	7	12		0	0	3	11
2008	Cam	20	117	108	29	3	4	1	1	0	16	15		3	0	6	11
2009	Cam	21	306	271	73	7	2	5	5	8	41	31		1	8	26	26
2010	Cam	22	325	299	82	13	1	11	5	10	43	41	4	1	8	13	27	13
2011	Cam	23	376	344	125	22	2	20	2	2	65	81	0	5	9	18	20	4
2012	Cam	24	319	283	77	10	0	8	2	2	31	36	1	3	6	26	18	13
Totals			1571	1430	418	58	9	45	15	23	203	216				92	113

	Age	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%	dt AVG	dt OBP	dt SLG
2007	19	128	0.256	0.273	0.280	0.024	2	9	0.222	0.234	0.246
2008	20	117	0.269	0.299	0.398	0.130	5	9	0.225	0.244	0.333
2009	21	306	0.269	0.350	0.365	0.096	8	8	0.227	0.280	0.308
2010	22	325	0.274	0.321	0.435	0.161	4.0	8.3	0.234	0.266	0.367
2011	23	376	0.363	0.404	0.613	0.250	4.8	5.3	0.310	0.337	0.518
2012	24	319	0.272	0.343	0.392	0.120	8.2	5.6
Totals		1571	0.292	0.335	0.440	0.148	6	7

Not too shabby for $800k, right? The nice thing about looking at position players coming over from Cuba, though, is that there is a relatively extensive track record of Major League performance. With pitchers, it’s basically Aroldis Chapman, Jose Contreras, and the Hernandez brothers. With position players on the other hand, there are quite a few names we can look at in attempting to get a performance baseline.

Here are how some major leaguers compared to Alvarez in la Serie Nacional at similar ages. I tried for three years worth of data from each player, as close as I could get to their age 22-24 seasons, which were Alvarez’s three most recent.

Technical Note: I’m getting all of the data from pre-2010 seasons from Clay Davenport, who doesn’t bother to list things like plate appearances, sacrifices, and HBP. I wanted to include BB%, and K%, so I estimated PA in a half-assed manner. I won’t go into detail, but the bottom line is that the BB% and K% numbers I’m showing are likely a smidge higher than the reality.

	Yrs	Ages	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
Dariel Alvarez	2010-12	22-24	1020	39	0.307	0.347	0.488	0.181	5.6	6.4
Yoenis Cespedes	2008-10	22-24	1167	72	0.317	0.386	0.589	0.272	10	12
Henry Urrutia	2008-10	21-23	999	29	0.358	0.433	0.537	0.179	10	11
Leonys Martin	2008-10	20-22	1040	25	0.345	0.474	0.517	0.172	17	14
Kendrys Morales	2002-04	19-21	781	32	0.350	0.434	0.576	0.226	11	12
Dayan Viciedo	2006-08	17-19	925	32	0.296	0.390	0.479	0.184	11	13
Yasiel Puig	2009,’11	19,21	639	24	0.316	0.412	0.539	0.223	11	15

That helps to put the $800k in perspective. The flipside of all the mediocre pitching numbers that have shown up for prominent defectors is that the offensive numbers are really good. While Alvarez doesn’t strike out much, he falls well short of the numbers put up by some of the other defectors.

Aledmis Diaz Stats

Aledmis Diaz is a shortstop who also defected last summer. The Cubs have been connected. He is listed at 6′”1″, 185 pounds, and is said to have a strong arm. The media seems to have decided that his name is actually “Aledmys,” but the version with an “i” seems to show up in all the Cuban sources, so I’ll stick with that for the time being.

Diaz has been in the news recently for lying about his age. He claimed to be 23 to exempt himself from international signing restrictions, but MLB decided that he isn’t, and has barred him from signing until February. It’s not clear how old he actually is, but his birthday has been previously listed as August 1, 1990. If that’s true, then he should be free and clear to sign without restriction in February. If it’s actually sometime in 1991, as has been listed elsewhere, then there remains a possibility that he will have to wait, or take whatever offer a club will make in the confines of their budget restrictions. I’m assuming the August 1990 birthdate is correct.

	Team	Age	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	R	RBI	SH	SF	HBP	BB	SO	GIDP
2008	VC	17	35	32	9	0	0	0	0	1	9	0				3	11
2009	VC	18	282	276	94	20	2	5	0	5	51	39				6	11
2010	VC	19	294	262	74	8	2	3	2	5	41	32	4	1	7	20	28	15
2010*	VC	19	67	58	17	4	0	2	0	1	6	11	1	0	4	4	10	2
2011	VC	20	358	282	83	16	1	7	1	2	44	45	3	1	14	58	23	10
2011*	VC	20	31	25	7	3	0	0	1	0	6	2	0	0	2	4	3	1
2012	VC	21	313	270	85	10	3	12	11	2	48	49	1	1	5	36	25	13
2012*	VC	21	33	28	5	1	0	1	0	2	4	1	1	0	0	4	3	1
Totals			*1413*	1233	374	62	8	30	15	18	209	179				135	114

	Age	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%	dt AVG	dt OBP	dt SLG
2008	17	35	0.281	0.313	0.281	0.000	9	31	0.242	0.242	0.242
2009	18	282	0.341	0.401	0.482	0.141	2	4	0.285	0.329	0.410
2010	19	294	0.282	0.348	0.363	0.080	6.8	9.5	0.243	0.289	0.309
2010*	19	67	0.293	0.379	0.466	0.172	6.0	14.9
2011	20	358	0.294	0.437	0.433	0.138	16.2	6.4	0.260	0.367	0.375
2011*	20	31	0.280	0.419	0.400	0.120	12.9	9.7
2012	21	313	0.315	0.404	0.507	0.193	11.5	8.0
2012*	21	33	0.179	0.281	0.321	0.143	12.1	9.1
Totals			0.303	0.372	0.440	0.136	10	8

*Playoffs

Overall, I think there is a lot to like here. Here’s a look out how his age 19-21 seasons compare to some other Cuban shortstops who have played in the US, with varying degrees of success.

	Yrs	Ages	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
Aledmis Diaz	2010-12	19-21	1096	25	0.293	0.395	0.432	0.139	11.5	8.4
Alexei Ramirez	2001-03	19-21	728	17	0.343	0.398	0.511	0.168	8	12
Yuni Betancourt	2002-04	19-21	958	19	0.291	0.333	0.442	0.151	6	9
Adeiny Hechavarria	2007-09	19-20	433	4	0.249	0.312	0.353	0.104	8	16
Yunel Escobar	2002-04	19-21	354	5	0.284	0.404	0.381	0.097	15	16

Diaz’s approach rates out as the best of the bunch. He struck out less than any of them and walked more than all but Escobar*. He showed less power than Ramirez did at that age, but put up a nearly identical OBP. Ramirez and Escobar have had pretty good careers, so the favorable comparison here speaks well of Diaz. If he can play good defense up the middle, the Cubs would be wise to make the effort, at least.

*I’m almost positive that these are Escobar’s stats, though Clay didn’t make the connection; the listing is “Yunier Escobar” in his database. The timeframe is right, though, as is the Cuban team (Industriales). In addition, here is a Cuban news report referring to Yunel as “Yunier” after his eye black incident last year. Even so, it’s a bit strange that he managed so few PA’s, even on a strong Industriales team. Maybe no one liked him there, either.

Odrisamer Despaigne Stats and a Comparison with Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Dalier Hinojosa

Updates: If interested in more defector profiles and comparisons, here are Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa, Aledmis Diaz, Dariel Alvarez, Alexander Guerrero, and Misael Siverio.

I have previously profiled Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Dalier Hinojosa. This time it’s Odrisamer Despaigne, who defected two weeks ago by walking away from the national team at an airport in Paris. No word yet whether the Cubs have interest, as Despaigne’s defection is much more recent than the other two. He has been working out in front of teams in Barcelona.

Defector Updates

Both Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Dalier Hinojosa have been cleared to sign with Major League teams by the Treasury. Any day now we can expect an announcement on those two.
Hot off the presses, another Cuban pitcher has defected. This time in it is Misael Siverio, who left the team last night in Des Moines. Jesse Sanchez is doing his part in carrying the water for his agents, shaving a year off his age in his tweeted announcement. Or not. Who knows? His stats actually look pretty good at first glance. I’ll profile him next.
I haven’t seen any updates or stats on Leandro Linares, the 19-year old who would be subject to international signing restrictions.
When we last saw Alfredo Despaigne, Cuba’s mini Bo Jackson, he was mercilessly taking Dalier Hinojosa deep. Now it turns out that he is playing in the Mexican League on loan from Cuba, and he is crushing. He has hit five homers in 86 plate appearances en route to a .366/.384/.598 line. I’m guessing that someone in Cuba is confident enough that Despaigne won’t defect to loan him to Mexico, but they have obviously been wrong on that front before. Outside of perhaps Jose Abreu, no other Cuban’s defection would make as big a splash as the three-time MVP. Fingers crossed that he comes over after the Dodgers waste all their money on other schlubs and before the Yankees end their bid to get under the luxury tax.

Odrisamer Despaigne Profile

Despaigne isn’t as big as Gonzalez or Hinojosa, checking in at 6’0″, 200 lbs. He is 26 and has pitched for Industriales in la Serie Nacional since he was 19. Unfortunately, I haven’t found any detailed scouting reports on his stuff, though I’m sure that sort of thing will be publicized soon enough. Youtube isn’t much help, either, as it only turns up the following video:

I’m fascinated by this because I don’t know what’s going on. From what I gather, Marti is a Miami-based news organization whose primary focus is the goings-on in Cuba. They are profiling the latest rash of defectors in beisbol, the latest being Odrisamer, and they interview a sportswriter who has himself defected, Raul Arce. Presumably they are discussing the logistics of such a defection. So far, so good. But then there is a call to la Serie Nacional that has all the trappings of “gotcha” investigative journalism, but whose purpose in unclear. Are they gloating? Trying to demonstrate Cuban baseball’s dishonesty and/or incompetence? Is there a corrupt member of the organization facilitating these defections?

Odrisamer Despaigne Stats

	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	W	L	AB	TBF	H	R	ER	ERA	K	BB	BBI	2B	3B	HR
2006	Ind	19	23	1	60.7	3	1			64		26	3.86	34	29				4
2007	Ind	20	28	0	65.0	5	2			70		20	2.77	37	22				4
2008	Ind	21	34	0	83.3	3	5			78		35	3.78	47	26				3
2009	Ind	22	28	9	100.7	6	6			113		54	4.83	79	47				8
2010	Ind	23	20	20	117.3	10	7	439	515	116	63	56	4.30	106	55	4	18	3	7
2010*	Ind	23	6	6	37.3	3	1	140	165	37	12	9	2.17	27	19	0	3	1	1
2011	Ind	24	21	21	130.0	8	8	506	597	143	87	68	4.71	96	62	5	30	1	13
2012	Ind	25	24	24	169.3	13	8	602	699	131	56	49	2.60	128	66	2	16	1	6
2012*	Ind	25	6	6	50.7	5	1	182	201	43	10	9	1.60	32	11	2	5	1	0
2013-1	Ind	26	12	12	83.7	5	2	308	339	76	29	24	2.58	55	25	5	8	2	5
2013-2	Ind	26	11	11	59.3	5	3	227	269	63	32	28	4.25	43	28	3	10	2	1
Totals					957.3	61	43			934		378	3.55	684	390				52

	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	dt K/9	dt BB/9	dt H/9	dt HR/9	dt NERA
2006	19	60.7	5.0	4.3	9.5	0.6			4.6	4.6	9.2	1.0	4.87
2007	20	65.0	5.1	3.0	9.7	0.6			5.4	3.7	11.1	1.3	3.96
2008	21	83.3	5.1	2.8	8.4	0.3			4.8	3.1	7.7	0.7	4.38
2009	22	100.7	7.1	4.2	10.1	0.7			6.8	4.2	9	1.0	4.82
2010	23	117.3	8.1	4.2	8.9	0.5	20.6	10.7	8.4	4.7	8.3	0.7	4.52
2010*	23	37.3	6.5	4.6	8.9	0.2	16.4	11.5
2011	24	130.0	6.6	4.3	9.9	0.9	16.1	10.4	7.0	4.5	8.8	1.0	5.45
2012	25	169.3	6.8	3.5	7.0	0.3	18.3	9.4
2012*	25	50.7	5.7	2.0	7.6	0.0	15.9	5.5
2013-1	26	83.7	5.9	2.7	8.2	0.5	16.2	7.4
2013-2	26	59.3	6.5	4.2	9.6	0.2	16.0	10.4
Totals		957.3	6.4	3.7	8.8	0.5

*Playoffs

** The 2013 season was split into two halves, with 8 teams advancing from the first round robin to play in the second half

Sources: beisbolencuba.com, claydavenport.com (any “dt” prefix indicates a Davenport translation)

Despaigne is a workhorse. Neither Gonzalez nor Hinojosa ever started more than 20 combined games in the regular and post season, whereas Odrisamer has done it every year since being shifted to the rotation in 2010. In 2012 he managed 30 starts and 220 innings between the regular season and playoffs, an impressive total in a league whose regular season is only 96 games long. In the 2012 playoffs, he averaged eight and a half innings in six starts, going 5-1. Clutch. Here is how he compares to Gonzalez and Hinojosa overall from 2010-2013:

	G	GS	IP	TBF	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	ERA	WHIP
Mig Alf G	40	38	245	1021	6.2	2.3	8.8	0.6	16.5	6.2	3.49	1.23
Dalier	62	59	396.7	1689	7.7	2.7	9.0	1.0	20.1	7.1	3.79	1.31
Odris	100	100	647.7	2785	6.8	3.7	8.5	0.5	17.5	9.6	3.38	1.35

Overall, Odrisamer has a strange profile. His K-rate is slightly better than Gonzalez’s, but his control is easily the worst of the three. What he does seem to do well is prevent runs. He sports a lower hit rate against than either of the other two, and his home run rate is also very good. Who knows? Maybe he throws a knuckleball.

Overall, though, his numbers definitely don’t point to a pitcher who is a safe bet for a big investment. Of the three, I would probably bet on Dalier, despite the homers.

Dalier Hinojosa Stats, and a Comparison with Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez

Updates: If interested in more defector profiles and comparisons, here are Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Odrisamer Despaigne, Aledmis Diaz, Dariel Alvarez, Alexander Guerrero, and Misael Siverio.

Last week, I profiled Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, a Cuban defector drawing lots of attention on the free agent market. Gonzalez is still seeking approval from the US Treasury, but could sign with the Dodgers an MLB team soon. Dalier Hinojosa is also a right-hander looking for work. He defected a month after Gonzalez, but has received a fraction of the hype. Hinojosa has been connected to the Cubs, and I would guess that he has a decent shot of signing with the team. Hinojosa is 27, and is thus not subject to MLB’s international free agent budget restrictions.

Scouting Profile

Hinojosa is 6’2″, 210 pounds. At 27, he’s a year older than Gonzalez (allegedly), and actually has a relatively high profile on the interational scene. Twice he thrown perfect games in international competition, though both were less than nine innings. The first was a seven-inning affair against Sri-Lanka in the 2010 World University Chamionships, in which Dailer struck out 16 of the 21 batters he faced. The second was against Hong Kong in the 2010 Intercontinental Cup, and lasted only five innings. Both games seem to have been ended via the mercy rule, a decent reminder that no matter how bad Gerardo Concepcion is, Cuba still plays at a really high level compared to the rest of the world. Hinojosa allegedly throws a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s along with a slider, curve, and change.

Dalier Hinojosa Stats

	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	W	L	AB	TBF	H	R	ER	ERA	K	BB	BBI	2B	3B	HR
2006	Gtmo	20	18	10	63.3	2	6			84		44	6.26	23	32				10
2007	Gtmo	21	18	17	87.7	4	7			98		47	4.82	49	43				10
2008	Gtmo	22	12	11	43.3	1	2			53		31	6.44	30	22				5
2009	Gtmo	23	15	14	87.3	7	4			87		35	3.61	48	34				7
2010	Gtmo	24	18	18	126.0	9	6	475	544	123	65	57	4.07	99	42	9	21	2	13
2010*	Gtmo	24	2	2	13.3	0	1	51	54	12	4	4	2.70	7	2	0	1	0	2
2011	Gtmo	25	17	16	108.7	8	4	412	456	115	46	43	3.56	87	25	5	21	1	14
2011*	Gtmo	25	4	3	18.7	1	2	80	91	25	14	12	5.78	20	8	0	3	1	4
2012	Gtmo	26	19	18	121.7	9	7	454	506	118	50	46	3.40	115	35	1	21	1	11
2013	Gtmo	27	2	2	8.3	1	1	28	38	5	5	5	5.40	11	8	1	1	0	1
Totals					678.3	42	40			720		324	4.30	489	251				77

	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	dt K/9	dt BB/9	dt H/9	dt HR/9	dt NERA
2006	20	63.3	3.3	4.5	11.9	1.4			2.9	4.8	10.2	1.6	7.10
2007	21	87.7	5.0	4.4	10.1	1.0			5.1	4.6	8.5	1.3	6.00
2008	22	43.3	6.2	4.6	11.0	1.0			5.9	4.7	10.2	1.2	6.24
2009	23	87.3	4.9	3.5	9.0	0.7			4.6	3.7	7.9	0.7	3.34
2010	24	126.0	7.1	3.0	8.8	0.9	18.2	7.7	7.0	3.5	8.2	0.9	4.23
2010*	24	13.3	4.7	1.4	8.1	1.4	13.0	3.7
2011	25	108.7	7.2	2.1	9.5	1.2	19.1	5.5	8.2	2.7	9.2	1.2	3.09
2011*	25	18.7	9.6	3.9	12.1	1.9	22.0	8.8
2012	26	121.7	8.5	2.6	8.7	0.8	22.7	6.9
2013	27	8.3	11.9	8.6	5.4	1.1	28.9	21.1
Totals		678.3	6.5	3.3	9.6	1.0

*Playoffs

Sources: besibolencuba.com, claydavenport.com

As before, the “dt” prefix indicates a Davenport Translation. Unlike Gonzalez, Hinojosa has put up a pretty respectable strikeout rate, especially relative to his K-challenged league. Here’s a more refined breakdown of the two:

	G	GS	IP	TBF	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	ERA	WHIP
Mig Alf G	40	38	245	1021	6.2	2.3	8.8	0.6	16.5	6.2	3.49	1.23
Hinojosa	62	59	396.7	1689	7.7	2.7	9.0	1.0	20.1	7.1	3.79	1.31

These numbers are totals for 2010-2013, la Serie Nacional only. Hinojosa has a significantly larger sample, as Gonzalez was suspended for much of the 2012 season. More or less this data encompasses Gonzalez’s full season numbers for his age 23 and 24 year old seasons, and Hinojosa’s for ages 24-26. Dalier has the significant edge in strikeout rate, though gives back a bit in control. Where Dalier really suffers, though, is in his homerun rate; he really seems to have a dinger problem. Ordinarily I might take a wild stab at attributing this to the size of his home park, but we all know Guantanamo, his home team, plays in a massive, nearly-impenetrable facility.

Visual Evidence of Said Dinger Problem

Here is a video of a very Bo Jackson-esque Alfredo Despaigne taking Dalier yard twice.

Keep the ball down, big fella.

Prediction

As mentioned, I wouldn’t be surprised if he signs with the Cubs, especially if his price tag is significantly lower than the one attached to Gonzalez via rumor. Next up is Odrisamer Despaigne, who walked away from the team in a French airport last week. Cuban security is not what it used to be.