This Generation’s “Mr. Cub”

While we wait for the World Series to start (and end) so the Cubs can finally do something to get back to the postseason, I realized a couple things that stemmed from the previous entry. The one thing is an extension of that blog, where it’s way more fun when the Cubs win, and that could generate far more goodwill than pure nostalgia:

https://twitter.com/Matt_Winkelman/status/1584955425996558336
Office gif: “It’s true…”

The second thing I thought about, given the Cubs’ reliance on nostalgia and tradition to have a higher attendance floor than most other teams, is that I would prefer more continuity with the players wearing my favorite team’s uniform. Such is the case with the late great Ernie Banks, who, despite never having played in the postseason, remains one of the most beloved (if not the most) Cubs of all time due to both his play and his personality. Banks also remains the most revered Cub from that group of Hall of Famers from those close-but-no-cigar Cubs teams, and the only one to remain with the franchise for his entire MLB career. I’m unsure whether any player will be able to claim that again, considering that they’re likely to be traded or sign elsewhere way before their 19th season.

The only Cub legends who could even rival Mr. Cub and also played while I was alive would be Ryne Sandberg or Sammy Sosa. Both also played for other franchises for various reasons, and in Sosa’s case (unjustly I might say) he just isn’t welcome to a significant portion of the Cubs fan base. It seems more logical to anoint one of the players who actually won a goddamn World Series as a legend even if they’re not quite Ernie Banks Mr. Cub level, but we’ve probably talked a bunch already about how this front office allowed that much talent to just deteriorate or walk away, and that does suck. Even second-tier but still obvious stars like Aramis Ramírez weren’t appreciated enough while they played with the Cubs to be considered. The obvious choice for our generation’s Mr. Cub would have been Anthony Rizzo, who had the longest tenure with the team of the previous core, and might possibly be a candidate to return to Chicago if the stars align (arguably he shouldn’t have left in the first place, but what’s done is done). And since the Cubs are unlikely to retain Willson Contreras, he’s probably not going to assume the mantle of respected long-time veteran either. It isn’t like they’re Hall of Fame elite level guys either, but that is obviously very difficult to achieve and so we might not witness a true next-gen Mr. Cub for a while longer.

Since this mantle is going to take a few extra years to materialize because, you know, legacy and narrative and all that, maybe we don’t need a Hall of Fame level talent, we just need a guy who was developed in-house to stick around past his walk date. That could still be Rizzo (if he comes back) or Contreras (if he gets to stay), but of the remaining guys on the 40-man who aren’t going to get unceremoniously dumped, I can only think of extension candidates in Ian Happ or Nico Hoerner. Neither guy is likely to end up in the Hall of Fame (but again, that’s already extremely unlikely for the bulk of players anyway) but could serve as respected veterans to guide the future Mr. Cub, whoever that is going to be.

This turned out to be a rather futile exercise because we are unlikely to satisfy the Hall of Fame level talent nor the franchise longevity requirements that a player needs to be considered Mr. Cub. I like Nico’s skillset on both sides of the ball and there’s a nonzero chance he turns out to be elite, but I don’t think we should bank on it. For me, I think my priority here is just the continuity of seeing a respected veteran who (hopefully) doesn’t suck at baseball staying around for more than his six years of club control before being let go, because that was rather painful when we had to say goodbye to Rizzo, Javier Báez, Kyle Schwarber, and Kris Bryant (even though I understand why they had to go from a baseball perspective).

We live in a different baseball business environment where free agency is very real and analytics is king in determining who stays and who goes, but I firmly believe that the Cubs, with their relative advantage in resources, can develop and retain/pay their guys to stick around. Similar to what Winkelman said in his tweet above, the Cubs have a good development pipeline, they have an obviously loyal (for whatever reason) fan base who wants to see more winning and is willing to pay for it, so why not churn out some All-Stars and Hall of Famers so the next generation of Cubs fans can grow up rooting for their own Mr. Cub(s)? Easier said than done, but in addition to winning, I’d just like to own a jersey that isn’t obsolete next year (which is why mine is blank). Although winning is the main business goal, I think it tracks well with continuity and fan engagement, and I’m excited and curious to see who may emerge as a new Mr. Cub in the next decade or so.

Kris Bryant is good at sports

A little over 3 years ago the Cubs drafted Kris Bryant with the 2nd pick of the 2013 First Year Player Draft*. He was considered either the top prospect or close enough to the top that few teams, if any, would have passed on him given the chance to take him that high. It was somewhat surprising to see the Houston Astros pass on him with their top pick, but they saved some money by taking Carlos Correa. They chose to spend a bit more later on and Correa has become every bit as good as the Astros hoped. Mark Appel was taken first overall that year (corrected from original).

*Can MLB please change the name of the draft to MLB Draft? 

The Cubs signed Bryant to the suggested slot of $6.7 million a month later and his professional career began shortly thereafter. In Bryant’s first full professional season he hit 43 home runs in 138 games between AA and AAA. He has a very good chance of hitting 40+ home runs in his first full MLB season. He’s already got 25, which is 1 shy of his season total last year. He was called up as soon as the Cubs secured the additional year of service time so he spent what is basically the full season with the Cubs, but technically, 2016 is his first full season in the big leagues.

Last year he hit .275/.369/.488 with a .371 wOBA and 136 wRC+. It was a fantastic rookie season that earned him Rookie of the Year honors in the National League. He was worth 6.5 fWAR, which I think surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. It was quite odd to see a Cubs prospect surpass expectations. It was a welcome surprise, but even the most optimistic had to be a little worried. Kris Bryant was striking out a lot. Despite the strikeouts, 199 of them in his rookie season, he was an outstanding and productive player in the minor leagues and proved to be just that at the MLB level.

He was helped out last year a little with a BABIP near .380. It’s fallen back to a more reasonable .315 this year. All he’s done this season is hit .286/.384/.578 with a .403 wOBA and a wRC+ of 153. He’s been worth 5.0 fWAR already.

The Cubs have 74 games remaining, which isn’t quite half the season, but I began to wonder just how good Bryant’s season may be in relation to this franchise’s best seasons by WAR. It’s unlikely Bryant will end up being worth 10 WAR, but it’s also possible. Bryant’s WAR at Baseball Prospectus (bpWAR) is 5.39. BP would have a different leaderboard since they use a slightly different way to calculate their WAR, but I just wanted to show that by at least one WAR measure, Bryant may well be on his way to a 10 WAR season.

That is, if we consider what he is on pace for and not what he’s likely to do. For example, it looks like Bryant is projected to be worth about 2.5 WAR the rest of the way leaving him just shy of 8 WAR. We’ll come back to this more reasonable estimate, but first let’s just be kids and imagine.

Rogers Hornsby‘s 1929 season is unlikely to be topped any time soon. He was worth 11.1 fWAR that year so even the most optimistic person would have trouble arguing that Bryant has much of any shot of catching or passing that. Hornsby’s 1929 season is the only one in franchise history to reach 10 fWAR in a season. Sammy Sosa came close in his memorable 2001 season (9.9). In 1959 Ernie Banks was worth 9.7 and in 1967 Ron Santo was worth 9.5 fWAR. Fergie Jenkins was worth 9.6 fWAR in 1971 and 9.5 in 1970. No other Cubs player has had a season worth as much as 9 fWAR. Those 6 seasons stand well above every other season by a Cubs player.

If Bryant puts together the kind of 2nd half that we hope he does, he very well could crack that top 6. Not only that, he could become just the 2nd Cubs player to crack 10 fWAR in a season.

I don’t think that will happen. If I had to guess, I’d say he ends up at around 8-8.5. Even if he reaches his rest of season projection, he’ll still finish with one of the best seasons for the Cubs since at least 1903. Here they are below.

  1. Rogers Hornsby: 11.1 (1929)
  2. Sammy Sosa: 9.9 (2001)
  3. Ernie Banks: 9.7 (1959)
  4. Fergie Jenkins: 9.6 (1971)
  5. Ron Santo: 9.5 (1967)
  6. Fergie Jenkins: 9.5 (1970)
  7. Ernie Banks: 8.7 (1958)
  8. Ron Santo: 8.7 (1966)
  9. Ron Santo: 8.5 (1966)
  10. Hack Wilson: 8.5 (1930)
  11. Fergie Jenkins: 8.2 (1969)
  12. Ryne Sandberg: 8.0 (1984)
  13. Ernie Banks: 7.8 (1955)
  14. Mark Prior: 7.8 (2003)
  15. Frank Chance: 7.7 (1906)
  16. Ron Santo: 7.7 (1965)
  17. Heinie Zimmerman: 7.6 (1912)
  18. Harry Steinfeldt: 7.5 (1906)
  19. Joe Tinker: 7.5 (1908)
  20. Ryne Sandberg: 7.4 (1992)

Jake Arrieta (2015), Mordecai Brown (1909) and Billy Herman (1935) are next at 7.3 fWAR.

Kris Bryant is only 24 years old, though. If we limit this list to players 26 and under, it looks even better. You’ve got Ron Santo in the top two spots in 1964 and 1966 with 8.7 and 8.5 fWAR, respectively. Fergie’s 8.2 fWAR in 1969 is next and the only other player with 8 or more is Sandberg’s 1984 (8.0).

Bryant has a shot at having the best season among 26 and under Cubs since 1903.

Cubs 5, Diamondbacks 7 (4/24/14)

Did The Cubs Win?

OSS: Cubs celebrate 100 years of Wrigley Field in fitting fashion.

Three Up

1. Jeff Samardzija was brilliant (again). He deserved to win (again). He didn’t win (again).

2. Hector Rondon has to be the best Rule 5 pick of the past 5 years, right? A short reflection of the past Rule 5 drafts:

2013: too early to tell.

2012: Rondon is a legitimate back-end reliever. Josh Fields is a relief janitor for the Astros. Ryan Pressly didn’t break 2014 with the Twins, though he was serviceable last year.

2011: Ryan Flaherty and Marwin Gonzalez were both stolen from the Cubs, they both stuck, and they are both decent 25th men on the roster.

2010: Brad Emaus! For only having 42 forgettable PAs in one year for the Mets, I sure do remember him for no reason. No one else of note.

2009: No one of note.

2008: Donnie Veal took equal turns being ineffective, barely effective, and hurt. However, Everth Cabrera is the clear winner here. I’d rather have Everth Cabrera in 2008 than Hector Rondon now.

Anyways, I liked Rondon when we took him last year. The dream of a rotational presence is over (the slider never developed past “change-of-pace”), but Rondon still throws a 95.5 mph fastball that touches 97 in spurts. His huge problem last year was walks; he figured that out late in the season, and ever since, he’s been the Cubs’ best reliever. He’ll close games before the year is through.

3. I’m going with Darwin Barney. He only went 0-1 with a walk, but he had a really nice squeeze that ended up with him on first via a poor throw (incorrectly charged as an error to Goldschmidt – it should have been on Miley). He made one bad defensive play early on that eventually led to the first run of the game, but he made up for it and more with 3 web gems in the game.

Three Down

1. Starlin Castro‘s bobble gave the Diamondbacks 4 outs. If he makes that play, the Cubs win 5-2 or 5-3. He also went 0-4 and struck out 3 times. The relievers didn’t bail him out, but you can more-or-less put this game at Castro’s feet.

2. Pedro Strop has pretty much relinquished his chance at being the closer. He had very spotty control yesterday, especially of his breaking pitches. He missed badly early on in the inning, which led to him getting squeezed later.

3. James Russell marches onward towards his ignominious release. He’s a LNOGY at this point.

Quick Hits

Where the fuck was Sammy Sosa yesterday? He’s done for the Cubs than any current member of the franchise, and that’s including Ricketts and Epstein. I get that he left in poor circumstances, but suck it up and mend the fences. It’s pretty fucking petty not to have Sammy out there. He was never my favorite Cub (for some reason, I was always on Team Grace. That…didn’t work out. That guy is a piece of shit), but I still always loved him. He’s the best Cub of my lifetime.

The whole ceremony seemed a little off to me. I liked seeing all the Cubs HOF, but it was sad to see Ernie Banks so frail. He looked a little lost out there to me. The balloons were cool, but not that cool, and it was awesome that the wind blew them away immediately. I’m not sure what it was like at the stadium, but you absolutely could not hear the crowd singing “Happy Birthday” in the 5th inning, so that was pretty awkward. Lastly, the Diamondbacks are literally the most recent team in baseball. Couldn’t the Cubs have played the Reds? Too much to ask?

Anthony Rizzo is a joy to watch play these days. He swings at so few bad pitches now. He also has more walks (13) than strikeouts (12). That won’t stick, but Rizzo is quickly making his contract look like a steal.

Next Game

Today, 2:20 CT, Edwin Jackson vs. Mike Bolsinger

Will the Cubs Win?

 

 

 

Shocking News That is Shocking: Banks & Williams to Appear at Cubs Convention

I know all of you have been laying awake at night and wondering if you might get a chance to see either Billy Williams or Ernie Banks at the Cubs Convention in January. Sure, they have both been there every other year, and the Cubs never miss an opportunity to trot the 1969 Cubs out to talk about what might have been, but maybe Ernie has had enough and is willing to say the Cubs will be shitty until at least twenty-fifty. Well, fear no more. According to the Cubs Twitter feed:

 

 

Thank goodness! Ernie must have come up with something that rhymes with "fourteen."

"The Cubs might not be a poor team in 2014!" Ernie will say it with pizzazz though. 

Now we can go back to wondering whether Ronnie Woo will be there and if Al Yellon will renew his season tickets in the Bleachers again for next year.

As for me, I can confirm that I will probably be at the nearby bar drinking heavily again.

Random Opening Day Thoughts

This current roster couldn't even bring a smile to an easily excitable child. If you look at the lineup we'll see most frequently it's a little depressing. Darwin Barney. Bryan LaHair. Ian Stewart. Marlon Byrd. David DeJesus. Some of them have some value, but who is going to watch a game to see those guys in action? I'm a half glass full kinda guy so I actually think there's some reason to be excited.

Take the lineup and add Brett Jackson and Anthony Rizzo to it. You've got Jackson leading off (maybe not right away), Starlin Castro batting 2nd and you can slot Rizzo in the 4th or 5th spot. The top half of the Cubs order is potentially very good, quite young and definitely something worth being excited about.

The rotation is even less exciting than the lineup. Other than Matt Garza there's no pitcher you feel you have to tune into. Ryan Dempster is still good, but he's not that good. Paul Maholm? There's just something about an 87 mph fastball that makes you want to do something else. Unless that pitcher has incredible secondary stuff, it's just boring watching a guy throw the ball 87 mph. Chris Volstad was once a top 50 prospect. Prior to the 2007 season he was considered one of the better starters in the minor leagues. He dropped some the following year, but was still 58th. After a good rookie season (2.3 rWAR), he's been worth 1 rWAR over the last 3 seasons. The projections have him striking out about 6 per 9 innings so that's certainly not very exciting. 

Speaking of strikeouts, does anybody miss Larry Rothschild? He's one of the better pitching coaches in the game. You can look at how pitchers improved while working with him and it's quite clear that Larry understood the value of adding strikeouts and even reducing walks. This led to high pitch counts, which angered fans, but the more strikeouts you have the better a pitcher you are. The fewer walks, the better you are. Pitchers improved under Rothschild. They also struck a shitload of batters out. I can't remember the manager or even the team the Cubs were playing back in 2001, but he commented after an extra inning game about how brutal it was facing all the Cubs relievers. You take one guy who throws 95 out and most of the time you're feeling better. Then you see he's replaced by a guy throwing 97 he said.

Enough has been said about Jeff Samardzija to last a lifetime. Seriously, I think more has been written about him here in recent weeks than will probably be written about him over the rest of his career. That kind of says it all.

That's all the starters? Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Volstad and Samardzija? Definitely worse than the bad lineup we're going to see regularly.

Defense? It might be improved, but it's still bad. Bad defense is no fun to watch.

Baserunning? It's hard to say, but you'd think the team would be better at it (baserunning, not overall!) simply by letting Aramis Ramirez walk. Oddly enough, they seem eager to prove that wrong. Dale Sveum talks about aggressive baserunning like it's the goal to winning games. Here's a goal: don't make outs on the bases. I don't care if the Cubs are aggressive or not. I want the Cubs to make good baserunning decisions. If that can be done while being aggressive, great. If it can't, don't be aggressive.

Should the Cubs even be aggressive on the bases? LaHair, Stewart, Byrd, DeJesus, Soriano, and Soto are guys who should probably not be so aggressive. That's almost the entire lineup. I'm going to go with no, the Cubs should not be aggressive.

Mike Quade realized last spring the Cubs didn't have the players to be aggressive on the bases. He sounded like an idiot early in spring training when he talked about it, but quickly realized this team sucked at running the bases. What's taken Dale Sveum so long? Who knows?

I now have the 2001 Cubs on my mind. That was a fun team. They got off to a 21-13 start. I'm pretty sure they were in first place. In typical Cubs fashion they lost 8 in a row to fall back to mediocrity. Following the losing streak the Cubs won 12 in a row. Probably the best baseball I've seen from this team over a 2 week span in my life. That lineup was kind of like this team with one exception: there is no Sammy Sosa in this lineup. Other than that, the 2001 lineup was just a bunch of mediocre to bad players. Ricky Gutierrez was 2nd on that team in RBI. He had 94 fewer than Sosa. That's not happening this year.

What about Starlin Castro? Will he improve a little bit like he did a year ago? That's all one can hope for in my opinion. Is he going to get arrested for rape? Is it just me or are others thinking that the police must have some credible evidence? I don't know what goes into a rape investigation, but they're usually he said/she said situations. Sometimes there's some physical evidence, but I wouldn't think you'd have to talk to all that many parties about it. Maybe I'm just thinking too much about it.

When was the last middle infield combination the Cubs had that was any good? I immediatley think about Ryne Sandberg and Shawon Dunston, but I've realized as I've gotten older and understand advanced metrics that Dunston wasn't very good. Through age 25 Dunston had OPS's of 87, 83, 62, and 76. That's very similar to another Cubs shortstop who posted the following OPS's in his first 4 full seasons: 71, 92, 83, 71. That SS had an OPS+ of 80 to Dunston's 77.

Ryan Theriot is the shortstop mentioned above. Granted, Dunston did that through age 25 while Theriot was 30 by that time. Theriot had 5.6 career rWAR and Dunston had 10. Dunston had twice as many plate appearances.

So while Sandberg was awesome, Dunston wasn't very good. Ernie Banks was a great SS early in his career, but the Cubs had Gene Baker and a couple other guys at 2nd who weren't very good. It's going to be awhile before the Cubs have a really good middle infield combo.

I'm looking forward to watching Steve Clevenger get some playing time. He's put together some fairly strong offensive seasons for a catcher and has done so under the radar. The Cubs made the right choice here. They told Welington Castillo he was sent down because he's a starter, but they can't be serious, right? Clevenger is only a year older and has been better in the minor leagues. Both of them are back-up catchers.

How many 2nd basemen does a team need on opening day? 4.

The Cubs have almost as many 2nd basemen on their roster as they do relievers. If they wanted, they could set up a rotation for 2nd base. You have your ace, number 2, number 3 and number 4. One more and they can match them up with the starting pitcher. I like that idea. When Matt Garza is on the mound, Blake DeWitt plays 2nd. Jeff Baker plays during Dempster's starts.  Luis Valbuena is teamed up with Paul Maholm. Darwin Barney and Jeff Samardzija are both transformed players so they would naturally be paired together. Joe Mather could probably play some 2B when Volstad pitches.

You could even get fancier than matching them up. When Garza comes out, you bring in your relief 2nd baseman. The Cubs would need a couple more 2nd basemen, but if they wanted they could match those together too. You could have a setup 2nd baseman and a closer if you wanted. I was wrong about this team not being exciting.

Every year someone asks me who is going to win the World Series. Like I fucking have a crystal ball. Want to know who is going to win? The best team has the best odds and more times than not the best team is the Yankees. That's been my go to answer for at least 15 years.

Too much bad news? I'll leave you with some good news: the probability that the Cubs get off to as bad a start this year as they did in 1997 is this: 0.00006103515625. That's if the Cubs were a true .500 team. Let's say they're a true .439 team (based on projections). The odds they start 0-14 are now 0.000009874231009178909. Basically 0%. Rest assured knowing it's an almost certainty that the Cubs will start the season better than 0-14.

Aramis Ramirez and "performing when it counts"

The Cubs and Aramis Ramirez have a mutal option for 2011 at $16 million, but it’s unlikely he exercises that option. Ramirez is looking for more than a one-year deal and as the best free agent 3rd baseman he’ll easily get a multi-year deal on the free agent market. It’s hard to say whether or not the Cubs will offer him an extension because we really have no idea what the team plans to do. Until we do it’s only speculation.

One argument that was brought up in the comments on that Bruce Levine article was a popular one we’ve often heard about Ramirez: he only performs after the team is out of the race. This is easy enough to check. Let’s start with 2003 which was the first year Ramirez played any important games. I’ll be using rWAR below.

While with the Pirates in 2003 Ramirez batted .280/.330/.448. That was good for a 99 OPS+ and he was worth .7 WAR. After joining the Cubs he hit .259/.314/.491. That’s a 105 OPS+ and in many fewer games he was worth more WAR (1.1).

In the first half of 2004 he hit .326/.374/.550. He then hit .308/.372/.613 in the 2nd half.

First half 2005: .298/.356/.549 and then .311/.362/.608.

First half 2006: .259/.320/.481 followed by .328/.388/.556.

First half 2007: .312/.356/.556 followed by .308/.375/.542.

First half 2008: .285/.386/.515 followed by .294/.371/.522.

He spent much of 2009 injured so it’s not like that it’s his fault.

First half 2010: .207/.268/.380 followed by .276/.321/.526.

First half 2011: .298/.346/.497 followed by .311/.374/.515.

Other than 2010 I don’t know how anybody could say that Ramirez wasn’t performing well in the 1st half. It’s either a lie or it’s ignorance.

Not to mention the obvious flaw in the argument. These people assume it counts early in the season, but doesn’t count later in the season. If a batter goes 0-4 in 81 games and 4-4 in the other 81, does it really matter how it’s distributed? Would his 4-4 every game in the 2nd half have less value than 4-4 in the first half? Of course not.

To these people, it counts early in the season every single year even if you’re the 1999/2000 Cubs or the 2011 Astros. That’s ridiculous. Ramirez has been an excellent player for the Cubs and suggesting otherwise is just plain dumb.

Among players who had 3000 plate appearances as a Cub since 1947, Ramirez’s 126 OPS+ ranks 6th behind Sammy Sosa (139), Billy Williams (135), Derrek Lee (129), Leon Durham (128) and Ron Santo (127). There haven’t been that many with 3000 PA so let’s lower it to 2000.

Ramirez falls to 7th (Andy Pafko is now 3rd). So you know, Ramirez is ahead of Mark Grace, Ernie Banks, Andre Dawson and Ryne Sandberg.

Among 3rd baseman for the Cubs with 1000 PA since 1947, he ranks 3rd behind Bill Madlock and Ron Santo.

Going all the way back to 1876, Ramirez ranks 4th in OPS+ among Cubs players with at least 1000 PA.

Among all infielders he ranks 10th. Since 1876 only Santo and Stan Hack have more Batting Runs at 3rd base for the Cubs than Ramirez. Among all infielders he’s 10th, just barely behind Ryne Sandberg who had twice as many plate appearances. He’s 9th in Batting Runs per 700 plate appearances.

Including all Cubs players since 1876 with 1000 or more PA, Ramirez ranks 21st in Batting Runs. Think about that for a moment. Only 20 Cubs players have produced more WAR Batting Runs in a Cubs uniform than Ramirez has in over 135 years.

Trying to argue that Ramirez has been anything other than a very good player for the Cubs makes a person look unintelligent. There is no argument in favor of such a position. None.

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