Tag: gioskar amaya

Minor League Recap 4-5-14

Iowa Cubs

It was a long night for the Iowa Cubs as they were beaten 11-1. Matt Szczur was 1-3 with a walk, run scored and a strikeout. Arismendy Alcantara was also 1-3 with a double. He also had an error. Javier Baez was 0-2 with 2 strikeouts and was thrown out of the game arguing the check swing strikeout. Ridiculously small sample, but he’s 0-9 with 6 strikeouts. Baez has been known to start off slow and look horrible before dominating.

Josh Vitters was 1-4 with a double and strikeout. Christian Villanueva was 1-3 with a couple strikeouts and Chris Coghlan was 2-4 with a double. The Iowa Cubs struck out 13 times and walked only once.

Kyle Hendricks got lit up in his season debut. He threw 4.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 6 runs. He walked 2 and struck out 5. Neil Ramirez threw an inning of relief and was not good (2 hits, 2 walks, 4 runs). Marcus Hatley threw 2 scoreless innings and struck out 4 while walking 1.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies had as many errors as hits. Two. Rubi Silva was 1-3 and Charles Cutler was 1-2 with the one of the two walks. Kris Bryant had the other walk and was 0-2 with a strikeout.

Jake Arrieta threw 3 scoreless, hittless innings. He did walk a batter, which came home to score and he struck out 3. Lendy Castillo did Lendy Castillo things. Corey Black thought that looked fun decided he could also do them.

Daytona Cubs

The Daytona Cubs had a fun game last night. They scored 13 runs and had 21 hits while allowing only 2 runs on 3 hits.

To put that into perspective, that’s 62.5% more runs than the Chicago Cubs have scored in their 5 games combined. It would have been 6025% more fun than the Cubs have been at any point in 2014. Since there are so many to cover, let’s do it this way.

Taylor Scott threw 7 innings and allowed only 2 hits. He walked 1 and struck out 2.

Kane County Cougars

Game 1

The Cougars picked up their postponed game and won 5-4 in 10 innings. Jake Hannemann went 2-5 with a HR and he stole 2 bases. Jacob Rogers also went 2-5.

Danny Lockart, Yasiel Balaguert, Daniel Canela (a home run), Shawon Dunston jr and Will Remillard each added hits.

Daury Torrez threw 5 innings of 5 hit, 1 run ball. He walked 3 and struck out 4. Gerardo Concepcion just wishes he could be as good as Lendy Castillo. Seriously, why is this guy even taking up a roster spot at this point? Both of them for that matter, but especially Concepcion. Jose Arias blew the save in 1.1 innings, though I’m fairly certain he came in with a whole shitload of Concepcion’s runners still on base. Thanks a lot.

Justin Amlung threw 3 scoreless innings, walked 2 and struck out 2. He got the win.

Game 2

The Cougars had only 2 hits in this one. Too bad Concepcion wasn’t pitching for the other team. They’d have had 318 hits. Ben Carhart was 1-3 with a double and Jacob Rogers was 1-3 with an RBI.

Tyler Skulina threw 6 innings of 2 hit ball. He walked a batter and struck out 2, but didn’t allow any runs. Zack Godley did his best impersonation of Gerardo Concepcion.

Minor League Recap for April 4, 2014

I know Myles includes the Cubs, in part because they’re essentially a minor league team and in part because someone requested it. I’m not going to include them. It’s not because I have so much to say about the minor leagues. It’s because I just don’t want to write about them. Emilio Bonifacio? Seriously? No thanks.

Iowa Cubs

Matt Szczur was the leadoff hitter and he was 2-3 with a double and a walk. The rest of the team went 0-26 with 4 walks and 7 strikeouts.

Javier Baez was 0-4 with two of those strikeouts. Josh Vitters was 0-4 and Brett Jackson struck out twice in three at-bats.

Baez also had another error.

Carlos Pimentel threw 5 innings and allowed 8 hits and 4 runs. He walked no one and struck out six. He allowed two home runs. Jonathan Sanchez threw .2 innings, allowed a hit and 3 hits and 5 runs. Good outing.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies won their first game to even up their record, but it wasn’t the offense that shines. The only run the Smokies managed was a home run hit by Kris Bryant, his second in the two games so far this season. Bryant was 1-4 with a couple strikeouts.

The Smokies only had 4 other hits. Zeke DeVoss was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts.

C.J. Edwards got the start and threw 4 innings, allowed only a hit and walked 1. He struck out 4. No word on exactly why he threw only 4 innings. At some point he’ll have to throw more than a middle reliever can if he wants to be a starter and so far he hasn’t. I find it odd he’s ranked as high by some prospects analysts, but that’s just me. He threw only 63 pitches. I know it’s his first start, but come on.

Armando Rivera  struck out 4 in 2 innings.

Daytona Cubs

Pin-Chieh Chen was 3-5 with a double and RBI. The right fielder was one of only a few bright spots in the lineup. DH Bijan Radenmacher was 2-4 with a double and Gioskar Amaya, batting 9th, was 1-3 with a walk and strikeout.

Jose Rosario threw 4 rather forgetful innings. He allowed 5 hits and walked 3 and allowed 3 runs. Michael Jensen struck out 3 in 2 innings of work. He gave up no hits and walked 1. Andrew McKirahan also threw 2 innings and walked a batter. He allowed 2 hits and struck out 1. Austin Reed got the loss in 2 innings of work. He allowed a hit and a walk and struck out 3.

Kane County Cougars – Postponed

2014 Assume the Position: 2B

2014 Assume the Position:

Catchers
First Base

2013 Assume the Position:

Second Base

      Last Year 2014 Career (MLB)
  Name Age (2014 season) AVG OBP SLG wOBA Oliver wOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Barney 28 .208 .266 .303 .252 .279 .246 .293 .336 .278
AAA Watkins 24 .243 .333 .379 .325 .281 .211 .268 .237 .233
AA Alcantara 22 .271 .352 .451 .365 .293        
A+ Darvill 22 .253 .324 .365 .321 .256        
  Saunders 24 .226 .316 .321 .304 .288        
  Bruno 23 .362 .436 .478 .424 .326        
A Amaya 21 .252 .329 .369 .326 .277        
  Zapenas 24 .255 .419 .319 .364 .265        
A- Lockhart 21 .290 .346 .331 .328 .244        
  Bote 21 .250 .337 .366 .341 .261        
Rk Blair 24 .226 .297 .283 .285 .274        
  Stevens 25 .257 .388 .329 .359 .279        

The MLB average wOBA for a second baseman last year was .305.

MLB

Darwin Barney took a large step in the wrong direction. He's now had 3 of 4 MLB seasons with an OBP south of .300, and 2013 in particular was putrid. He's still a defensive stalwart, but that's all; he's one of the 2 or 3 worst hitters in baseball and shouldn't start for even a team as bad as ours. Barney has the chops to play 2B and SS which makes him a valuable backup, but no team that gives Barney 500 PA can reasonably aspire to contend without serious firepower everywhere else.

AAA

Logan Watkins must have taken a dump on Dale Sveum's desk last year, because after he was called up he was used quite sparingly. Watkins underperformed with the stick in AAA last year but still took his walks. He's not so punchless that pitchers can attack him directly, but he's probably never going to hit more than 6-8 HR a year. I'd like to see him break ST as the starting 2B and give him some time to see what you have, but the reality is probably utility 2B/CF at this point. 

AA

Arismendy Alcantara was shunted to 2B to make way for the Baez Express, which tore through the Southern League like $20 of Taco Bell through my digestive system. It might be a better fit for him (though I maintain CF could work equally well) anyways. Alcantara had a bit of a breakthrough season in 2013, and he'll start this year in AAA purgatory while his service clock becomes more tenable. Alcantara isn't going to embarass the PCL (or any league), and thus won't force the issue, but Arismendy should be a solid if unspectacular major league regular for the foreseeable future. 

A+

Wes Darvill got a taste of the AFL as Baez' replacement, but I think that was more out of the necessity for an infielder than Darvill's skills. He profiles probably as an upper-minors mainstay, perhaps grabbing a cup of coffee or two during his career. He's not particularly muscular or athletic but he makes it work. Tim Saunders is too old for this shit, and also too old to hit under the league average in A+. Stephen Bruno came back from an injury to further embarass the league he was placed in. He'll need to move relatively quickly, but he's only had 2 professional years and he went crazy in both of them. It'll be very interesting to see what happens when he faces actual pitching (his A- BABIP was .431, his A+ BABIP .472); he's not particularly fast, so those BABIPs are the result of him just being too good for the level. I'd look for an aggressive promotion here to see what you really have; it's difficult to gauge until then. 

A

Gioskar Amaya had a 2013 he'd rather forget. I thought he'd take a Great Leap Forward; instead, he tripped on his bat and lost 77 points of wOBA and over 240 points of OPS. The walks went down (but not a ton), the strikeouts stayed the same, and the BABIP fell to a normal level; the real loss was his power (which is what made him intriguing to start with). Hopefully Amaya finds it in 2014, and last year becomes a distant memory. Bradz A Penas sure can take a walk, but he can't do much of anything else. Punchless bats like his are just calling to be exposed against mid-90s heat and pitches that break hard and late.

A-

Daniel Lockhart (who I ALWAYS want to call Gilderoy) has a bat even more feckless than Zapenas'. It is entirely without feck. It's hard to envision him as anything more than organizational fodder but I've been wrong before. David Bote was much more promising in his second season of professional ball. I'd like to see him grab the lion's share of the starts in A ball next season. 

Rk 

Zak Blair (20th round, 2013) and Trevor Stevens (UDFA) are both old and neither had enough PA to really say anything constructive about. 

I thought 2B was a beacon of hope last year, and I was wrong. DeVoss moved off the position. Torreyes was traded. Watkins underperformed. At least Alcantara moved to the position (and it's feasible Baez ends up here when it all shakes up), and if Bruno stays at 2B he's got at least a shot to be a prospect in the future. All told, 2B is about middle-of-the-road as far as talent is concerned, with a few intriguing guys at the bottom and a few intriguing guys at the top. It's hard to ask for more than that.

 

 

Minor League Roundtable Part 2: Breakouts and Busts

Part 2 of our Roundtable series discussing all sorts of things relevant to the Cubs Minor League system. Let's get into it, shall we?

 

Myles: Who do you guys think could breakout next year? I think there's a slam-dunk answer to breakout candidates, but I have a few I'd like to talk about. The one I'm most confident about is Shawon Dunston, Jr. He's been great when he hasn't been injured, and he's got plate discipline, with enough power to make pitchers worry. He's also a great defender in the outfield. He was well thought-of before injuries derailed him, and I think he'll take a step forward next year. 

I also think that when Stephen Bruno comes back next year, he's got a chance to enter the prospect conversation. He had a nice season in 2012 but unfortunately lost essentially all of 2013. He probably isn't more than a supersub, but it's hard to deny a guy that crushed A- to the tune of 172 wRC+ in his first professional year, and was on the way to do the same at A+ until his injury. 

My last guy is Paul Blackburn, who has a shot to be the best Cubs pitching prospect at the end of 2014 in my mind. He's still got to fill out, but I don't think he'll have a problem with it (unlike CJ Edwards). When he does fill out, he'll have a nice sinking fastball with good plane and good location. That's a pitch that you can build a MLB career around. Huge walk rates don't faze me in the minors unless it's really obvious something is going wrong.

Dmick: Funny, Shawon Dunston, Jr. was the guy I was going with. He had a great walk rate this year, but it was in a level he should be hitting quite well in. His ISO was disturbingly low, but I think we'll see that improve if he can stay healthy. Honestly though, this is a category that's so hard to pick and the easier topic to discuss is what prospects are likely to fall next season. I can go with any possible breakout. Trey Masek comes to mind. I know I've been low on Jeimer Candelario, but he's another guy who could take a few steps next year.  

sitrick: I said so in my review, but I still believe in Gioskar Amaya. I think there was so much crap working against him this season, it was in hindsight a bit premature to be predicting huge things from him in Kane County. He's still got a quick bat, and reports on the defense are positive. I think he has a "putting it together" sort of season and ends 2014 with the Smokies. I think Yasiel Balaguert could find some helium in '14 too.

Dmick: I think Yasiel Balaguert is going to struggle just because I can't ever imagine having to write that name without thinking what the next letter should be.  /dumbshit who hasn't taken Spanish since high school.

Myles: I like Jeimer, and not just because he follow me on twitter. 

Dmick: Possible breakdowns? CJ Edwards and Kyle Hendricks, I think, are the obvious ones.

Myles: I think Kyle Hendricks is due for some regression, just like Nick Struck was (though hopefully not to that level). Sahadev Sharma says scouts don't think his slider plays in the majors, which he'd need to keep MLB talent off the hittable fastball. I can see that, but I also think Hendricks is an intelligent pitcher who at the very least keeps the ball in the park. 

sitrick: Dillon Maples could wash out pretty quick if he doesn't find some success in full-season ball soon. I wouldn't be shocked to see Alcantara take a step back next season. This was a big year for him and he did wear down near the end of it. I think I need to see another year out of Edwards before I make any judgements. I wouldn't be surprised if he imploded, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took a step forward and jumped into the national top 25. I think we'll know more when he gets to a level where we can see pitch counts and really judge if his low innings are because of an innings limit/lack of efficiency or if he's just not capable of putting a 6+ inning start together.

Myles: Maples is probably the hardest prospect to pin down in the organization. He could be a Top 10 guy in the org next year, or be in Indy ball. I'm still an Edwards believer. I know that Parks thinks there's no way he adds weight to his frame, but he also liked his delivery and repeatable motion. When it's said and done, I think Edwards ends up as a very, very nice fireman/closer, which is a nice thing to have. And there's that 1-in-20 chance he adds 15 pounds of good weight, in which case he could be a #2 or #3 (probably #3 type). There's also the 1-in-3 chance his body just says "I can't handle this" and he gets Arodys Vizcaino disease. I'd REALLY like to see him start in person. 

Dmick: As I mentioned, the innings limit doesn't make sense to me. He only pitched 47 innings in 2012 and 126.1 this year, but he also pitched in extended spring training in 2012. The innings limit doesn't make sense to me. 
 
sitrick: I have a gut feeling Edwards isn't the most efficient guy in the world, and that more than anything is where his lack of innings comes from. But I want to see the pitch counts and know for sure before I judge.
 
Oh, here's a bold prediction for you: I think if Josh Vitters stays healthy next year he gets a second look in the majors as a left fielder and surprises some folks. Not a superstar or a Role-6 or anything, but I still think he peaks as an acceptable Role-5 guy if health doesn't continue to be an issue. Call me crazy, but I'm buying in.
 
Dmick: Ok, I'll do it. You're crazy. (dying laughing) In all seriousness, I can see Vitters get a second look, but I can't see it turning out well. Maybe as a back-up. I don't know. 
 
Myles: No, I like Vitters! I'm worried that he'll never stay healthy again after 2013, but he's STILL going to be just 24 next year. He has as good a chance as any to get some PT in left next year. If he ends up a left-side bench player, I wouldn't be at all surprised.

 

 

 
Who is more likely to breakout for the Cubs next year: Josh Vitters or Brian Bogusevic? Is this even a question?
 
Dmick: Is there a third option or do I have to pick Vitters or Bogusevic? I'll go with the third option. 
 
sitrick: The swing is so fucking good with VItters, and he's never been successful right off the bat at any full-season level. I just believe he'll look better the second time around in the majors. Not rational, I know.

Myles: "Not rational" is becoming a running theme here.

sitrick: (dying laughing) I know it's mostly coming from me. I'm an optimist, sue me.

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Gioskar Amaya

Gioskar Amaya came to the Cubs as a 2009 J2 signing. His signing bonus isn't listed anywhere, so we'll assume the Cubs didn't exactly break the bank on him. Amaya entered 2013 as a hot pick to have a breakout season in the Cubs organization. Some of the notable reports:

Sickels:

11) Gioskar Amaya, 2B, Grade B-: I think he will take a huge step forward in 2013. Defense at second base is better than it was at shortstop. He's got pop, can steal bases, and has a good swing.

Callis:

I do like Amaya and think he has the upside of a solid regular. He can hit for average, might surprise you with some pop, has plus speed and plays a nice second base.

And one more from a November 2011 Kevin Goldstein column just because I found it and what the hell:

The Sleeper: Venezuelan teenager Gioskar Amaya is a plus runner with excellent contact ability who could grow into a utility role, and possibly a bit more.

Despite not much action on top organizational prospect lists — likely do to his youth and short-season ball status — Amaya seemed to be a name everyone was watching. A 5'11, 175 lb MIF bat, Amaya shuffled back and forth between short and second before finally settling in as a 2B late in the 2011 AZL season. Meanwhile, he hit .377/.417/.510 in his first season stateside, playing 52 games in Arizona.

2012 saw him moved up to Boise where he continued to rake, hitting .298/.381/.496, displaying a patient approach (33 BBs in 317 PAs for a 10.4% rate, more than double his 2011 performance a level lower), and nice power (8 HRs, 12 3Bs). A 20.5% K-rate was a bit disappointing, but Amaya proved himself more than ready for the test of full-season ball at Kane County in 2013.

Performance

Amaya got off to a frigid start and never fully recovered, hitting .229/.247/.313 in April and .238/.307/.375 in June. His pre-All Star line settled at .242/.311/.357 as he struggled to adjust to better pitching and the ice-cold spring the midwest league had to offer in 2013. In hindsight, it's fairly unsurprising that Amaya got off to such a sluggish start, playing in seriously cold weather for the first time.

A scorching July helped turn his season around, posting an eye-popping .319/.414/.489 line over 25 games and flashing the breakout potential scouts saw in him before the season. It was not to be however, as August and the long full-season schedule were unkind to Amaya, finishing with an improved-but-still-disappointing .252/.329/.369 line for the season.

Scouting

A .698 OPS in his first go at full-season ball is not going to give Amaya a ton of helium this offseason, but as a 20-year old, he can afford to have a challenging year. If you're looking for reasons to be pessimistic, his 8.1% walk rate and 21.1% K rate are certainly worth keeping an eye on as he rises through the ranks. 

Here's BA's report on Amaya from this year's Prospect Handbook:

Amaya starred alongside Marco Hernandez in the Rookie-level Arizona League during their 2011 U.S. debuts, and again at Boise last summer. Amaya can do a little bit of everything, but he stands out most for how easy he makes it all look. When the Cubs needed an emergency infielder in Triple-A in mid-May, they sent him to Iowa and he delivered a double in his lone at-bat. Amaya uses a short, quick swing that has produced a .333 batting average in two years in the United States. He's growing into some sneaky power and has plus speed, and he hinted at both with his Northwest League-leading 12 triples last summer. After alternating between second base and shortstop with Hernandez in the AZL, Amaya played exclusively at the keystone in 2012 with Boise. His range and arm strength weren't quite good enough at shortstop but are solid at second. He topped NWL second basemen with a .968 fielding percentage. Club officials love his makeup and how he's locked in to play every day. If Amaya keeps producing at the plate when he gets to full-season ball in 2013, he'll start to move quickly.

Despite the struggles, nothing about 2013 changed any of this for Amaya. He'll only be 21 next season, still has a quick bat, and is still growing into his power. His home run power is likely minimal — maybe a 10-15 guy optimistically at the major league level. But with his speed, there's the potential for a lot of doubles and triples if he can make the adjustment and start to hit full-season pitching the way he dominated the rookie leagues. And given the positive reports of his makeup, the quality of his swing, and the solid plate approach he's displayed before Kane County, I think he's perfectly capable of making those adjustments.

Outlook

Frankly, I think Amaya's 2013 performance was better than the line reflects. There were a lot of challenges to overcome, and in hindsight, a struggling year of adjustments was probably fairly predictable. It truly was a frigid spring in Midwest League towns, making the already-offense-suppressing environment play as more of a pitcher's league than usual; warm weather didn't roll in for good until mid-june, which, coincidentally, is about the time Amaya's bat started to heat up. You could create a fairly convincing narrative built around Amaya struggling to adjust to cold weather for the first few months of the season, getting hot for about a six week stretch, and then wearing down due to the grind of a full-season schedule. Of course, struggling is struggling, whatever the reason, and he still needs to prove he can make adjustments to more difficult leagues. But I wonder if the somewhat common notion of 2013 as a breakout season for Amaya wasn't a year or so premature.

Given his struggles, Gioskar should start 2014 repeating Kane County. The FSL isn't any more offense-friendly, and he needs to prove it against his current level of competition before taking on tougher challenges. With 500+ PAs logged at low-A already, however, I would think a hot April would be enough to earn a Daytona promotion and keep him from falling behind in the developmental track. With a bit of a warmer spring and a year of full-season experience already under his belt, I'm expecting a nice rebound (and potentially breakout) season out of him next year.

Long-term, the picture for Gioskar is a bit murkier. The glut of infielders already in the mix for playing time at the major league level will likely make him expendable, barring a farm-clearing trade for David Price or similar ilk. If 2014 does prove a breakout season for him, his name could find its way into some trade scenarios as third- or fourth-pieces in a bigger package.

Whatever happens, 2014 is, in my opinion, a make-or-break point in Amaya's career. Another year of struggling in the midwest league and he'll drop off the radar fairly quick, whereas a breakout season could make him next year's Alcantara. As with all Low-A players, there's a ton of volatility to his future, and it's up to Amaya and his bat to make order out of it all.

UPDATE: Myles was kind enough to remind me that the Cubs are using the fall as an opportunity to test Amaya out at Catcher, however Mark Gonzales writes that the move is not considered permanent at this point, he's just getting work in instructional leagues.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 7-24-13

New Orleans Zephyrs 2 @ Iowa Cubs 1 (10 innings)

Boring. Mike Olt was 1-5 with 3 strikeouts, and, well, that'll happen. Josh Vitters, in left, went 1-3 with a walk and a strikeout. A Donnie Murphy forceout tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, but Yoanner Negrin's 1 run 10th gave the game back to New Orleans. Brad Nelson had three hits. On the pluls side, Brooks Raley had a nice start.

Tennessee Smokies 6 @ Huntsville Stars 1

Javier Baez now has more HR (6) than singles (5). He went 2-5 with a double and a jack, and struck out twice. Justin Bour, Rubi Silva, and John Andreoli each also doubled. Bour had a home run as well. Rafael Lopez went 1-2 with a HR and two walks, great performance. Arismendy Alcantara continues to be ice-cold, going 0-5. Despite that, Alcantara is still having a very good season for someone his age and level. He has a .364 wOBA, which is good for a 132 wRC+. 

dmick89: Dae-Eun Rhee had a solid start going 5 innings and allowing 5 hits and a run. He struckout 6 and walked 3. Rhee was a highly regarded prospect a few years who suffered an arm injury. Yeiper Castillo, Hunter Cervenka and Zach Rosscup each pitched hitless innings. Tony Zych gave up a couple hits, but no runs in the 9th. 

Kane County Cougars 1 @ Beloit Snappers 5

Gioskar Amaya was 0-4 with a couple strikeouts. Reggie Golden was 2-4 with a double and the team's only RBI. Albert Almora was 1-4 with a double and Dan Vogelbach was 0-4. Amaya and Jeimer Candelario have turned their seasons around since I last wrote one of these. Marco Hernandez has had a terrible season and much of the shine has come off of him. 

Rehabbing Scott Baker started the game and did not pitch well. Results don't really matter in these rehab starts, but you'd be happier to see good ones than bad ones. He gave up 5 hits and 2 walks in 3 innings. He also gave up a home run and 3 runs in all. He struckout 3. Nathan Dorris pitched a scoreless inning and Joes Rosario finished the game. He threw 4 innings and allowed only a hit, but walked 2 and gave up 2 runs. he struckout 5.

Boise Hawks 1 @ Eugene Emeralds 5

2013 draft pick Jacob Hannemann was 1-5 with a double and 3 strikeouts. David Bote was 1-3 and Kris Bryant followed up his 5 strikeout game by going 1-4 with a double and no strikeouts. Carlos Penalver drove in the team's only run and was 1-4 with a double.

Loiger Padron threw 3.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and 2 runs. He struckout 1 and walked 1. Jasvir Rakkar threw 3.1 innings. He allowed 2 hits, both of which were solo home runs. Eddie Orozco pitched the 8th and gave up 3 hits and a run.

DSL Cardinals 2 @ DSL Cubs 8

VSL Cubs 3 @ VSL Phillies 5

Cubs Prospects on the Decline

Before this season, both dmick/Uncle Dave and I made our prospect lists. These aren't the only prospects in the Cubs system, but they are nearly all the ones worth talking about. I might have missed a prospect here or there, but it's a good jumping off point. The list of the first 21 is right here:

Javier Baez 65
Jorge Soler 65
Dan Vogelbach 65
Albert Almora 60
Brett Jackson 60
Gioskar Amaya 55
Arismendy Alcantara 55
Arodys Vizcaino 55
Logan Watkins 50
Christian Villanueva 50
Junior Lake 50
Dillon Maples 50
Duane Underwood 50
Jeimer Candelario 45
Dave Sappelt 45
Marco Hernadez 45
Matt Szczur 45
Pierce Johnson 45
Paul Blackburn 45
Josh Vitters 40
Juan Paniagua 40

Starting this month, dmick89 and I are going to cover which prospect we think are rising and falling. We'll focus on 3 or 4 guys, and list any honorable mentions we might have. Keep in mind, this is only for actually prospects; Brian Bogusevic is tearing up AAA but that's not as important as Jorge Soler tearing up A+ ball. — Myles

Stats are current through Wednesday's games

3. Gioskar Amaya: I was probably a little higher on Amaya entering this season than a lot of people, but even if I used MLB.com's 18th ranked prospect in the Cubs system, Amaya has fallen. He hit 8 home runs last year in short-season Boise, led the league in triples, and he added 6 more doubles. He slugged .498, which gave him an ISO near .200. His OBP was nearly 100 points higher than his average. For a 2nd baseman, these numbers were impressive.

So I've been more than a little disappointed with Amaya's results in 2013. Promoted to full season A ball at Kane County, he's been terrible. His walk rate has been cut in half (down below 6%) and his strikeout rate increased to nearly 25%. He hasn't yet hit a home run and has 9 extra base hits. He's hit .237/.280/.321, which is good for a 71 wRC+.

There's still plenty of time for Amaya to improve these numbers, but it's going to be difficult to have season ending numbers that look that impressive. He was rated near the bottom of the lists by the prospect analysts and is likely to drop off at this point.

2. Marco Hernandez: what was supposed to be a fantastic Cougars infield that boasted a legitimate prospect at every position has turned out to be disastrous. Hernandez struggled last year when he was promoted to A ball. His average was down, OBP down and slugging down. That's all true this year. He did have a couple nice games yesterday and that's not reflected in the stats.

His walk rate is horrendous. It's below 3%. In 280 A ball plate appearances he has a total of 12 extra base hits. He is only 20 years old and plays a premium position, but this guy has shown little skill beyond the ability to play SS.

Dave and I had Hernandez near the bottom of our list of prospects. I'm comfortable in knocking him down further at this point and depending on whether or not he shows much improvement the rest of the way, off the list entirely. The Draft is coming up next month so there will be two or three players that will sneak in above him and potentially pushing off.

1. Javier Baez. You knew it would be Baez. Baez currently has an ISO of .224, which is very good. It's allowed him to be productive enough so that his wRC+ is essentially league average (98). Doesn't sound so bad. It is bad.

Last year when he hit .188/.224/.400 (.288 wOBA, 76 wRC+) at Daytona in 88 plate appearances, you could point to him getting adjusted to the league, his .200 BABIP or highlight his .213 ISO and say things were going to be all good. The ISO is basically the same and, predictably, his BABIP has increased to .292. He's hitting just .238/.271/.462.

He's walking less than ever before and Baez was never one to take a lot of pitches. His walk rate is down to 3.2% and his strikeout rate has jumped to 29.0%. That's higher than Brett Jackson at the same level. Most of his strikeout rates are higher than Jackson's at the same levels. The difference between the two being that Jackson was very good at getting on base via the walk. Baez is not. He's flat out terrible at taking walks.

Prior to High A, Baez had 235 plate appearances in A ball. He hit .333/.383/.596. Those are ridiculous numbers for someone his age. In 241 A+ plate appearances, he's hit .220/.261/.439. Much of Baez's rankings have been based on the 235 A-ball plate appearances, but he now has nearly as many in A+ as he had before. Baez also had 18 plate appearances in rookie ball and A-.

Baez just hasn't been very good at all since getting to Daytona. I think anybody would agree that a .260ish OBP isn't going to cut it.

There are a handful of FSL players with 3 or 4 walks on the year. Baez has 5. He has the 3rd most strikeouts. He has the 26th lowest batting average this year. He has the 10th lowest OBP. Of the 7 FSL players with a lower walk rate, only 3 of them have a strikeout rate above 18.4%.

To make things even worse, Baez has made 14 errors this year in 35 games played. He stole 25 bases in his 253 pre-High A plate appearances. He's stolen 7 in Daytona.

One of the things that was actually impressive about Baez prior to Daytona was that he had been hit by 11 pitches. He wasn't afraid to stand in the box and take his base. He was afraid to not swing the bat, but that's another story. He's been hit 4 times in as many PA since he got to Daytona. It's almost like the pitchers with better control got promoted.

Baez is still just 20 years old and still has a lot of potential, but he's not the best prospect in the system anymore. Jorge Soler has taken that from him. Albert Almora may soon move ahead of him and if Dan Vogelbach's power returns, I'd put him above him too. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, it's also possible that the 1st round pick is ranked above him. We could see Baez fall down to 5th or even lower. If he doesn't improve the rest of the way, it will be lower.

I talked about this with Josh Vitters for years. You have to take walks. You have to take some. Vitters walk rate was quite low in the minors, but his walk rate is quite a bit higher than Baez's was. I'd be happy to see one improvement from him the rest of the year: patience. He has no chance to be a good MLB player walking as little as he does. He certainly has some power and could be a pinch hit specialist, but that's about it. He has to be more selective and if we see him improve at that, things suddenly look a lot better.

I guess the problem with that might be an even higher strikeout rate, which would seem difficult to do. If he's working deeper counts, he will strikeout more. Scary.

Honorable mention: Brett Jackson, Christian Villanueva

Brett Jackson's walk rate has declined 3 years in a row now. It stands at 8.7% through Wednesday. His strikeout rate has declined from over 33% to below 27%, but that's still bad. Along with the loss of strikeouts, though, his power has declined considerably. Jackson is capable of going on a tear and posting even better AAA numbers than a year ago, but he's quickly becoming an afterthought.

The Cubs working with him to cut down on his strikeouts by altering his mechanics is something I've always disliked. Sometimes it has great results, but it seems to me that more often it's the opposite. Brett Jackson was always a guy who struckout a lot and walked a lot. When he put the ball in play he'd hit it hard. He was productive. Very productive. What's wrong with that?

I understand it's the organizations obligation to help a player as much as possible, but sometimes I think they tinker too much. This might be an example because it seemed as soon as Dale Sveum talked about Jackson needing to make changes this time last year, shit got worse for Jackson. Maybe that's just a coincidence. I don't know.

Christian Villanueva's walk rate is back down to 7%, which is about what it was before the Cubs acquired him last year. His strikeout rate has jumped to 24% or more since joining the Cubs. He's reportedly quite gifted with the glove, but these numbers, along with a lack of power, aren't going to work at 3rd base.

JOT Minor League Recap 5-16-13

Tucson Padres 0 @ Iowa Cubs 1

Matt Garza’s final rehab start was a fantastic one. He threw 6 innings and allowed 4 hits and a run. He didn’t walk anybody and struckout 8. The question now is who is he going to replace in the Cubs rotation?

Brooks Raley threw the final 3 innings and allowed 2 hits and a walk while striking out 3.

The I-Cubs only had 5 hits and nobody had more than 1. Brent Lillibridge, Brian Bogusevic and Josh Vitters were each 1-3. Dave Sappelt was 1-4 and Donnie Murphy was 1-2.

Tennessee Smokies @ Jackson Generals

Matt Loosen is not having a very good time this year. In 4 innings tonight, he gave up 3 hits and walked 6 batters. He struckout 5 and allowed a home run, but somehow gave up only 4 runs. I guess that’s impressive. He’s been terrible in his 5 appearances this year.

AJ Morris had a very good night in relief. He threw 3 innings and didn’t allow any walks or hits. He struckout 3. Marcus Hatley pitched the 8th and allowed a hit. Frank Del Valle got his 5th save and struck a batter out.

The Smokies had 8 hits on the night. Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a double and a strikeout. Ty Wright hit his first 2 home runs of the season for the Smokies. Jonathon Mota was 2-4 and so was Rafael Lopez. Lopez doubled.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 12 @ Daytona Cubs 7

PJ Francescon had about as shitty a start as you can have. In 5 innings he allowed 9 hits and 5 walks. He gave up 2 home runs. he allowed 10 runs. He’s had starts this year in which he’s given up 6 runs, 7 runs and now 10 runs. He’s made just 8 starts. He’s been kind of good in the others, but that’s not at all impressive.

Lefty Jeff Lorrick pitched 1.2 innings, allowed a hit and a walk. He gave up an unearned run. David Cates threw 1.1 innings, allowed a hit, walk and a run. He struck a batter out. Hunter Cervenka allowed a hit in an inning pitched.

Tim Saunders filled in at SS for Javier Baez who got the day off. Don’t worry. The Cubs got the same kind of offensive production out of him that they’ve gotten from Baez, except for the power part. Saunders continued to have a shitty season and was 0-5. I’m sure the only reason he hasn’t been demoted to Kane County is because he’d be on the bench behind another struggling 2nd baseman in Gioskar Amaya.

John Andreoli was in CF for the struggling Zeke DeVoss. He went 1-4 with a walk. Jorge Soler was 1-5.

Dustin Geiger was 3-5 with a double and a home run. In Chadd Krist’s 2nd game at Daytona, he was 3-3 with 2 doubles and 5 RBI.

Peoria Chiefs 0 @ Kane County Cougars (Game 1)

Cougars pitchers allowed only a hit in Game 1 of the double-header (7 innings). Bryan Smith went 4 innings, walked 2 and struckout 2. Eddie Orozco threw 2 innings, allowed the only hit and struck a batter out. Jeffry Antigua struck a batter out over an inning of work.

Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-3 with a walk. Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez finally had good games. Each had 3 hits. Dan Vogelbach was 1-4 with a double and 2 strikeouts.

Following Myles write-up on Cubs prospects on the rise, Rock Shoulder’s inclusion on the list was rewarded with an 0-4, 4 strikeout performance.

Peoria Chiefs @ Kane County Cougars (Game 2)

This game is currently through 5 innings and all I’ve got two things I’m going to say about this game. Marco Hernandez hit his first home run of the season. The Cougars have committed 5 errors. 3 of them have been by Jeimer Candelario (now 11 on the season). That’s all.

UPDATE: The game is over and who really gives a shit who won because the Cougars made 6 errors. SIX ERRORS!

VSL Tigers 15 @ VSL Cubs 10

The VSL Cubs took 11 walks in today’s game. RF Ricardo Marcano was 1-3 with 3 walks.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-15-13

Tennessee Smokies 4 @ Jackson Generals 8

Things didn’t fall apart for the Smokies until after starter Eric Jokisch left the game. He pitched 6.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 5. Then Trey McNutt came in and pitched 0.2 innings. He gave up 2 hits and 2 runs. He was followed by Brian Schlitter who also pitched .2 innings. He allowed 3 hits and 4 runs.

Matt Szczur was 1-4 and was caught stealing for the 3rd time. Arismendy Alcantara was 2-3 and so was Jair Fernandez. Fernandez hit a home run and drew a walk. Rubi Silva, Christian Villanueva and Jonathon Mota each added a hit.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 7 @ Daytona Cubs 1

Austin Kirk has had a rough season. He threw 4 innings and gave up 7 hits and 6 runs. He walked 4 and struckout 4. To give you an idea how useless wins and losses for pitchers are, he’s thrown 38 innings this season, given up 46 hits and 24 runs on 7 home runs, 16 walks and 30 strikeouts. Despite being awful, he’s 4-2.

Luis Liria and Sheldon McDonald each threw 2 innings and both of them allowed 3 hits. Each of them struck a batter out. Frank Del Valle pitched the 9th and gave up 2 walks, 2 hits and a run. He struckout 2.

It was another terrible night at the plate for the Daytona Cubs. They had 5 hits and a walk as they scored only 1 run. John Andreoli was 1-3 with a walk. He was drafted in the 17th round in 2011 and turns 23 in June. He’s mostly played LF in his career and has a total of 1 home run. He has played some CF, which will be necessary for him to get to the big leagues. So far this year in 34 games, he’s hit .323/.412/.425. He’s also stolen 10 bases. He only has 8 extra base hits, though.

There were four Cubs who were 1-4: Javier Baez, Dustn Geiger, Ben Carhart and Chadd Krist. The Cubs had no extra base hits. Jorge Soler was 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.

Peoria Chiefs 0 @ Kane County Cougars 4

Taylor Scott and Nathan Dorris combined on a 3-hit shutout against the Chiefs. Scott threw 7.1 innings, allowed 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 2. Dorris pitched the final 1.2 innings and gave up a hit.

The 20-year old Taylor Scott has had a fine start to his 2013 season. The South African was picked in the 5th round of the 2011 draft out of Notre Dame Prep High. He’s not a guy who strikes many out. Last year at Boise he struckout 43 in 71.1 innings. This year he’s struckout 23 in 38.1 innings. He’s walked 15, allowed only 1 home run and given up 30 hits.

Pin-Chieh Chen and Rock Shoulders were each 1-3 with a walk. Shoulders struckout twice and Chen struckout once. Bijan Rademacher, Dan Vogelbach and Willson Contreras were each 2-4.

Jeimer Candelario was 1-4 with a strikeout. Gioskar Amaya was dropped to 8th in the order and went 0-2 with a strikeout. Marco Hernandez was 2-3.

VSL Cubs 7 @ VSL Phillies

I know next to nothing about the VSL team and probably won’t be writing much about them until later on. So check out the box score because I’m going to highlight maybe one person per game for awhile.

Amaldo Cabrera was 3-5 with 3 doubles.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-1-13

Round Rock Express 1 @ Iowa Cubs 0

Chris Rusin had a very good start. He went 7 innings, allowed 6 hits and a run. He walked none and struckout 5. Hisanori Takahashi struck a batter out and allowed a hit in the 8th. Zach Putnam struckout 2 and allowed a hit in the 9th.

Logan Watkins was 3-3 with another walk. He’s struckout a little too much this year and it should come down. Otherwise, he’s had a fantastic season so far. He’s hitting .279/.436/.465 and has 9 extra base hits. Two of them were home runs. He’s walked 20 times and struckout 27 times.

The only other hit for the I-Cubs belonged to DH Ryan Sweeney who was 1-4 with a strikeout. Josh Vitters is back and he was playing LF because Ian Stewart is busy sucking at AAA. Vitters was 0-3 with a walk.

Tennessee Smokies 0 @ Mississippi Braves 3

Matt Garza got the start in this 5-inning rain-shortened game. He had a fantastic evening. He allowed a hit, walked 2 and struckout none. Remember, stay positive! Don’t be a fake Cubs fan.

Kevin Rhoderick threw 1.1 innings, walked 2 and struckout 1. Matt Loosen pitched 0.2 innings, gave up a couple hits and a walk. He gave up 2 runs.

The Smokies had only 2 hits. All of the position players were 0-2 with the exception of Rubi Silva and Rafael Lopez. Each of them were 1-2.

Palm Beach Cardinals 1 @ Daytona Cubs 3

Ben Wells is off to a great start at a league I wasn’t sure he was ready for. He’s proving me wrong. He threw 7 innings, allowed 3 hits and 1 run. He walked a batter and struckout 3. Wells’ walk to strikeout ratio is a bit concerning. He’s struckout only 18 in 32.2 innings and he’s walked 12. Even for an extreme groundball pitcher, I’m not sure those numbers are going to work.

Eduardo Figueroa pitched the final 2 innings, allowing 2 hits and a walk while striking out 3.

Jorge Soler doubled in 3 plate appearances. He also stole a base, his 2nd of the season. Ben Carhart was 2-3 with 2 doubles. Anthony Giansanti was also 2-3. The other Cubs hit belonged to Stephen Bruno.

Taiwan Easterling had 2 outfield assists.

Bowling Green Hot Rods 4 @ Kane County Cougars 5

Pierce Johnson is putting together a very nice season in A ball so far. He started for the 5th time last night and threw 6.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and a run while walking 1 and striking out 4. He’s been very good in his last 3 starts, pretty good in his 2nd start and pretty bad in his opening start this year. He gave up 6 hits, a walk and 5 runs in 2.1 innings in that start.

On the season he’s thrown 24.2 innings, allowed 24 hits, walked 7 and struckout 25.

Eddie Orozco pitched an inning, allowed a hit and 2 walks while striking out 2. Jeffry Antigua threw 2.1 innings, allowed 5 hits and 3 runs. He didn’t walk anybody and struckout 4.

Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-5 with a double and 3 strikeouts. Gioskar Amaya hasn’t had many good games this season, but he did last night. He was 2-3 with a double and a walk. He was picked off once.

No other Cougar had more than 1 hit. Dan Vogelbach was 1-5 with 2 strikeouts. Jeimer Candelario and Rock Shoulders were each 1-4. Shoulders doubled. Willson Contreras was 1-3 with a walk.