Tag: homer bailey

Series Preview: Reds (65-52) at Cubs (52-65)

seriespreview

The Reds have had a great season, and all they have to show for it is looking up at two teams above them in the standings. At least they have a relatively solid grip on that last wild card spot, though that (thankfully) isn't as great of a position as a team would like. Joey Votto is having another MVP-worthy year but will likely be ignored in the voting if the Reds don't win the division. Luckily, an even more deserving player who had been similarly held back by team performance seems like he has the pole position for the award. 

Team Overviews

  Reds Cubs
wRC+ 95 (5th) 90 (12th) 
BSR -2.3 (7th)  -3.6 (8th)
UZR 8.6 (6th) 28.6 (2nd) 
DRS 20 (6th) 17 (7th)
SP FIP-  94 (3rd) 98 (6th)
RP FIP-  98 (9th) 115 (15th)

The Reds bullpen was a major source of strength last season…this year it would seem it's not the case. The biggest difference has been the abscence of Sean Marshall, who has been battling shoulder problems all year and might not pitch again this season. Logan Ondrusek had a FIP-ERA split of nearly two points last year, and things have normalized for him this year. More importantly, setup man Jonathon Broxton has lost his ability to miss bats, and hasn't been nearly as effective. The rest of the pen (and the guy at the top of it) has been pretty good though.

Injuries

Aside from the above-mentioned Marshall, the Reds are also missing ace Johnny Cueto. He hit the DL for the third time at the end of June with a strained lat muscle and hasn't picked up a baseball yet. There's a good chance he might not be back this year. Ryan Ludwick has been out since opening day with a torn labrum, and is expected to return this series.

It's going to be a bloodbath of DFAs when the Cubs clear their 60-day DL this offseason. Currently they have Thomas Neal, Scott Baker, Matt Guerrier, Ryan Sweeney, Zach Putnam, Kyuji Fujikawa, Rafael Dolis, and Arodys Vizcaino stashed off the 40-man. Luis Valbuena is still out with a hamstring injury, I haven't seen any news on him recently. 

News, Notes, Blood Oaths, etc.

I'm still disappointed that Cueto is out for this series. His spat with David DeJesus a few months ago was kind of hilarious, especially when two other people (Matt Garza and Dusty Baker) called on the other team's player to man up while they were defending them by proxy (laughing). 

As reported by BA 26 year old Cuban baseball star Jose Abreu has defected and is looking to sign on with someone. Abreu hit a Bonds-ian .453/.597/.986 in 293 PAs, with 33 HRs in 2010/2011. He's a first baseman, so the Cubs are not expected to make a big play for him, but hopefully the FO doesn't give a fuck. They could probably get something pretty good for Rizzo, or move him to LF. GW covered this in more detail in a post earlier today.

Pitching Matchups

(ERA, FIP-, xFIP, projected FIP)

Monday: Mat Latos, RHP (3.21, 79, 3.41, 3.35) vs Travis Wood, LHP (3.04, 94, 4.41, 4.15), 7:05 PM CT

The HRs and the BABIP have risen a bit for Wood in his last few starts, but he's still been a solid pitcher for the Cubs all season. He bounced back from his shortest start of the year with 6 innings and change with seven strikeouts against the Phillies in his last outing. 

Latos has been even better in his second year with the Reds, striking out nearly a batter an inning and limiting free passes. He hasn't had a bad start in over a month. He pounds hitters with a hard, heavy sinker, and puts them away with an excellent slider.

Tuesday: Homer Bailey, RHP (3.73, 75, 3.07, 3.47) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.23, 93, 3.46, 3.54), 7:05 PM CT

Ever since I complained about Shark not getting enough ASG attention, he's been kind of awful. He's walked 15 batters in his five starts since the break, and while he didn't walk anyone in his last start, he gave up 9 runs in three innings and change in the shortest start in his career. He struggled around this time last year, and supposedly he was working on a new pitch. I haven't heard anything along those lines this year, and given that he's looking to get paid he's got incentive not to do so. 

Bailey is having a breakout season, and helping make up for the absence of Cueto for much of this season. He threw his second no-hiter (this time, against the Giants) at the beginning of July but has scuffled a bit since then, relatively speaking. Though compared to a no-hitter just about anything is 'scuffling'. 

Wednesday: Bronson Arroyo, RHP (3.15, 107, 4.04, 4.56) vs Chris Rusin, LHP (3.08, 95, 4.12, 4.70), 1:20 PM CT

Bronson Arroyo isn't my most-disliked player, but he's certainly in the top 30. That title would probably go to someone like Matt Holliday or Ryan Theriot. It always sucks to see a soft-tossing junkballer shut down the Cubs lineup. He's having another bafflingly solid year this year, even by FIP thanks to his lack of walks. He's lost in the shuffle of guys who could be the next Jaime Moyer. I could see him driving batters crazy with his crappy stuff into his 40s.

Rusin has actually been kinda good in his five starts this year, including six and seven shutout inning starts on the road against the Giants and Cardinals. Needless to say, I don't expect this ti continue, and I'm kind of surprised that Arrieta or Grimm doesn't have this rotation spot. 

Have an A-1 day!

Series Preview: Cubs (18-28) at Reds (29-18)

seriespreview

The Cubs are back in the basement of the NL Central following their winless series against the Pirates. If the season ended today, they would have the fourth pick in the 2014 draft. The Reds, meanwhile, are coming off a sweep of the Mets and get their ace back this week. 

Team Overviews

  Cubs Reds
wRC+ 90 (11th) 99 (6th)
BSR -0.5 (7th) 2.5 (5th)
UZR -0.6 (6th) 5.6 (4th)
DRS -2 (12th) 11 (3rd)
SP FIP- 95 (5th) 91 (3rd)
RP FIP- 110 (11th) 101 (9th)

Despite Cueto going down in mid-April the Reds starting pitching has been phenominal. Every starter has an ERA below 4, and the 'worst' performing of their pitchers was Tony Cingrani, who posted a credible 4.32 FIP. 

Offensively, Joey Votto has cooled off a little bit and now "only" has 41 walks on the year and an OBP of .484. Shin-Soo Choo has also had an amazing year at the top of their lineup. I was not a big fan of the trade when the Reds made it (and he is indeed awful in CF), but it's hard to complain about a CF putting up a .426 wOBA. 

Injury news

Not much to note on the Cubs, other than that Camp has been bothered with a sprained toe injury, that apparently has been bothering him for weeks but didn't tell anyone about. I'm sure Michael Bowden wishes he told the FO a day sooner, since it cost him his job when Garza came up.

Sadly, we won't see Sean Marshall's yakker of a curveball in this series. He just hit the DL with shoulder inflammation. OF Chris Heisey strained a hammy at the end of April, and reinjured it while rehabbing it earlier this month. Johnny Cueto came off the DL earlier this week after recovering from a lat/oblique strain.

Minor league highlight

Albert Almora went 3-4 with a double in his first game at Kane County. Now that he's healthy, Let's see what we got.

Pitching Matchups

Freya's day: Scott Feldman, RHP (2.19, 101, 4.11, 3.90) vs Bronson Arroyo, RHP (3.28, 94, 4.07, 4.59), 6:10 pm CT

Arroyo is the epitome of the junkball pitcher. Every time I write one of these I have to stop and ask myself if he's left handed. He's been a below average innings eater for years at this point with the Reds, but suddenly turned in a solid season last year. The main difference seems to be that he seems to be pitching even more to contact, given his plummeting walk rate in 2012-2013. His durability is amazing – he's pitched 32, 32, 33, 33, 34, 34, 35 starts over the past seven seasons with the Reds.

Feldmania continues after Feldman shut out the Mets for six innings and change in his last start. Even his FIP is starting to come down. He's still had a lot of batted ball and sequencing luck, but I'm feeling dumb for complaining about him earlier this year.

Saturn's day: Travis Wood, LHP (2.24, 97, 4.58, 4.32) vs Homer Bailey, RHP (3.09, 73, 3.19, 3.66), 3:10 PM CT (Guessing this is on FOX).

Bailey is another member of the W-Rod Hall of Fame. In his prospect/early days with the Reds that he had big control problems, and many had written him off as a fifth starter ceiling. He's brought that under control and then some, walking less than 6.5% of batters in the last two seasons. His strikeout numbers aren't quite as impressive as people were hoping when he was comign up, but he's still a solid pitcher that any team would love to have in their rotation. The only concern with Bailey is that 2012 is the only year where he's pitched an entire season. 

It's been fun watching Travis Wood dominate other teams' lineups over the past few weeks. He's had some luck with HRs and a lot of luck with batted balls. To be fair, he posted a .244 BABIP in 156 innings last year (career .262), so maybe that's not quite so surprising. Also, fly ball pitchers like Wood tend to have lower BABIPs. Flyballs generally get caught, except when they land in the bleachers.

Sunday: Matt Garza, RHP (0, 71, 3.42, 3.67) vs Johnny Cueto, RHP (3.22, 97, 2.96, 3.66), 12:10 PM CT

This should be a fun matchup. Both guys are making their second start coming back from lat injuries, so we'll probably see a lot of the bullpen again. Probably to Garza's chagrin, as they wasted no time in blowing the lead to welcome him back. Garza looked more than ready, hitting 95 on his fastball with good secondary pitches. He hit his pitch count pretty quickly though. Cueto tends to be a little more efficient so we might see him work deeper in this game.

The Ghosts of Free Agency Future

In the aftermath of the recently announced deal with the city to renovate Wrigley Field, Theo Epstein spoke to the media about its potential benefits to the team:

Our payroll now is third in the division. That’s fine. But it should be first in the division. So this is one of the ways that we’re going to get there.

It should be, we are on the same page. And this is one of the ways to get there. Still with you. I'm just struggling to figure out what the other ways are. Because this…

some aggressiveness in free agency

…I have to be honest, I don't see it.

Perhaps the greatest fault of the Cubs organization circa the late Hendry era was it's reluctance to invest in the minor league system. While other teams were stockpiling compensation picks, luring players from college with massive late-round bonuses, and throwing money around on the international free agent market, the Cubs mostly demurred.* When Theo was hired, he pledged to change all that, and no doubt he would have were it not for the new CBA, which hit like an angry Carlos Quentin and abruptly ended most of those practices. And while the new CBA was a shock, most of us figured: "hey, it's a setback, but there's always free agency." However, a new trend was slowly building and has now nearly overwhelmed the game. No one is making it to free agency any more. Prospects that the Cubs were busy not acquiring years ago are now being locked up well into their 30s, just long enough to get past the time when other teams would have any desire to sign them. 

*The exception being 2011, of course, when Hendry got either religion or a mandate from upstairs to spend big.

Don't believe me? First, I used Fangraphs to find a list of all the players who accumulated at least 5 wins above replacement between the 2010 and 2012. An average player is worth about 2 WAR per season, so this is a fairly low hurdle to clear. It captures more or less everyone who has had a good season for two out of the last three years. Then I used Cot's and Baseball-Reference to determine when each of these players could potentially reach free agency. I filtered out everyone who will be 30 or older by the time they get there. The front office has repeatedly emphasized the importance of acquiring young players close to the prime of their careers. These are the players that they want to spend money on, the building block pieces which would presumably be at the heart of any effort to lead the NL Central in payroll.

Behold, I give you free agency future:

* Club Option

** Two Club Options

+ Two Player Options

2014

Phil Hughes, P, 28

Seriously. That's it.

2015

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, 28

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, 29

Billy Butler, DH, 29*

Dexter Fowler, CF, 29

Colby Rasmus, CF, 29

Clayton Kershaw, SP, 27

Johnny Cueto, SP, 29*

Yovani Gallardo, SP, 29*

Homer Bailey, SP, 29

If you think Clayton Kershaw will make it to free agency, then either you believe he's on the verge of a catastrophic arm injury, or you are blissfully unaware of the goings-on in LA over the last 11 months. Otherwise, there are some decent pieces there. We can assume a few marginal players will take a step up over the next two years to join this group. Overall, that's not likely to change the way this looks, which is decidedly fair to middling.

2016

Jason Heyward, OF, 26

Austin Jackson, OF, 29

Justin Upton, OF, 28

Alex Avila, C, 29

Gerardo Parra, OF, 29

Mat Latos, SP, 28

Jaime Garcia, SP, 29 **

Rick Porcello, SP, 27

Trevor Cahill, SP, 28 +

Jhoulys Chacin, SP, 28

And now we find ourselves in 2016, the last for which Theo is under contract. If we are lucky, this could project as really good year for the Cubs. And it could be a banner year for free agents, but that is really anyone's guess given how many things could change between now and then. Some of these guys will fall off, and they will be joined by others who breakout. If the early extension model continues, many of them won't make it to the market. My guess, though, is that by then a few marginal guys will have been overpaid to such an extent in free agency that some will decide that waiting is worth the risk. And the Cubs will aggressively pursue them. In 2016.

My point is not that the Cubs are doomed.* There are a few 30 year olds barely missing my age cutoff that would make each of these classes look better. However, avoiding guys over 30 is central to what the front office is trying to accomplish (namely, sustained success). It seems clear to me that the Cubs will be forced to do a lot of things they would rather not: pony up for guys over 30, take on good players with bad contracts from other teams, ship out prospects to smaller market clubs to get a crack at extending bigger names, and pray to Jeff Samardzija Jesus that his will be done, role players be transformed, and prospects pan out. 

*The Cubs are probably doomed.

Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds (66-45) at Chicago Cubs (43-66)

Riding an eight game losing streak and consecutive sweeps on the west coast, the Cubs continue their upset bid to take the number one pick away from the Houston Astros. The Reds, meanwhile, are two and a half games ahead of the Cardinals and the still hanging in there Buccos. For all the slagging I like to do on the Reds pitching staff, they've allowed the fewest runs in the division so far and are only 14 runs behind the NL-leading Nationals. I sitll think the Cardinals are the much better team, but even 2.5 wins is a pretty big gap at this point of the season. Baseball Prospectus has the Cardinals as a .583 true talent team and the Reds at .539, but the Reds have a 4 game advantage in expected wins at the end of the season (94.3 to 89.3). Oddly enough the Pirates, despite an even worse expected win% have a better projected record than the Cards. Must be a strength of schedule thing, i.e. they must have plenty of games left against the Cubs and Astros.

Team Overviews

NL rank in parens. I'm switching to the park-adjusted wRC+ and FIP- instead of wOBA and FIP. I do kind of wish that fangraphs just put out a park-adjusted wOBA and FIP instead of the 100-scaled numbers, which I'm not really a fan of.

  Reds Cubs
wRC+ 94 (8th) 76 (16th)
BSR 4.4 (4th) 1.7 (6th)
UZR -2.4 (10th) 20.2 (2nd)
DRS +17 (4th) +3 (7th)
SP FIP- 99 (10th) 101 (11th)
RP FIP- 80 (1st) 111 (15th)

Race to the top update: the Cubs have the lowest wRC+ in all of baseball, and only the Mariners (who play in pitcher-friendly Safeco) have a worse team wOBA. The Cubs bullpen's FIP is still the worst in MLB by over 0.2 points, and the gap between the pen's xFIP (4.91) and the next best is even larger. However, adjusting for park effects has the Cardinals pen worse than the Cubs, and the Astros pen is right in the thick of things too. It makes for some interesting late innings in the division.

The Reds rotation has been average despite the presence of Bronson Arroyo, but it's been the bullpen that has driven their runs scored numbers so low. The Reds have five pitchers (Sean Marshall, Alfredo Simon, Sam LeCure, Logan Andrusek, and the amazing Aroldis Chapman) who have logged more than 40 innings in the pen, and the "worst" ERA among them is LeCure's 3.07. Just imagine how good this pen would be if Ryan Madson were healthy. Chapman has been so electric that it's amazing when he only gets one strikeout in an inning. I still find Good Carlos Marmol circa 2008-2010 to be more exciting, because I love a wicked slider, but Chapman has amazing stuff. I saw him merely warming up at a Durham Bulls game a few years back and was blown away by his stuff before I even knew who he was. He was spinning 102-104 mph fastballs on the stadium gun and didn't really know where it was going at the time. He hit Dioner Navarro in the back with a fastball that I expected to see come out on the other side. I guess it's safe to say he figured it out (laughing).

Position Players

The Reds have this Joey Votto guy, who leads the team in wRAA by a wide margin with 38.4 and a .444 wOBA. Unluckily for the Cubs draft pick chances (and people who love watching elite players) he's still rehabbing from July knee surgery. He could come back next week. Jay Bruce and Luis Gonzalez clone Ryan Ludwick are having solid years at the plate, with .362 and .344 wOBAs respectively. 27 year old rookie SS Zack Cozart has put up a .247/.293/.401 line in 453 PAs, hitting leadoff in 78 games this year. With a .293 OBP. Never change, Dusty Baker. Never change.

Injuries

Aside from the aforementioned Votto and Madson, C Devin Mesoraco is out with a concussion suffered July 30, but has been feeling better and could come off the DL this series.

Matt Garza could be donezo for the season with a stress reaction in his elbow. Ian Stewart is done for the year with wrist surgery, though I don't think Luis Valbuena has much of a chance at Wally Pipp-ing him for the 2013 job. I think he'll be nontendered and re-signed into a platoon with Vitters. Recently acquired Cub Arodys Vizcaino is rehabbing from Tommy John and won't be back this year. Lendy Castillo is recovering from David Patton disease, and recently started at AA. Given the Cubs options behind Ace Pitcher Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood, the Cubs might as well toss him into the mix too. This is a year!

Pitching Matchups

ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP in parens

Thursday: Mike Leake, RHP (4.51, 4.23, 3.67, 4.25) vs Chris Volstad, RHP (7.22, 4.27, 4.63, 4.64), ~8:00 PM CT

There's a bunch of rain in the Chicago area but the Cubs think this will get underway around 8 pm CT.

Mike Leake throws strikes and puts the ball on the ground when it doesn't head out of the park. He posted a 2.04 BB/9 last year and it's held right around that mark in 2011. He's had terrible luck with HR/FB over his career, posting 13.2%, 13.9%, and 16.7% in his two and a half seasons in the bigs. Playing in GAB doesn't help those numbers, but even so that's pretty big. He's given up 17 runs in 22 innings over his last four starts, including five homers.

Don't let his 0-8 record and 7.22 ERA fool you, Chris Volstad is merely a shitty pitcher instead of a terrible one. I remember his strikeout rate being decent early in the year even while he was giving up a zillion runs, but it's dropped to a pathetic 5.16 K/9. He's had a little BABIP bad luck (.319) that can be partially explained by his GB rate, but the most baffling number of all is his ludicrous 51.3% strand rate. With the bases empty he's posted a 3.62 FIP, but with runners on it rises to 5.01 and a whopping 7.40 (,432 BABIP!) with runners in scoring position.

Friday: Homer Bailey, RHP (3.98, 4.38, 4.28, 4.25) vs Justin Germano, RHP (2.37, 2.40, 4.10, 4.13) 1:20 PM CT

Bailey's main problem early in his career was walks, but over the past three year's he's steadily lowered his walk rate from the 4.13 BB/9 in his first year with the Reds to this year's 2.52. I remember him as either a strikeout guy or a groundball guy, but he isn't either. Just a solidly average pitcher. He strick out ten Brewers and allowed one run in eight innings two weeks ago, but followed that up with a five walk game and has given up ten runs in his last two starts.

I'm not that familiar with Germano since his acquisition happened while I was away, but his numbers/projections are a lot better than I expected, though to be fair  they're mostly as a reliever. I hadn't realized that he's been bouncing around since 2004. At the very least he might inspire Chris Volstad to pitch better, because if Justin Germano is outpitching you, ouch.

Saturday: Bronson Arroyo, RHP (4.05, 4.25, 4.19, 4.73) vs Travis Wood, LHP (4.77, 5.62, 4.81, 4.45), 3:05 PM CT

Arroyo had a hilariously bad 2011, pitching 199 innings with a 5.07 ERA and 4.88 K/9, while coughing up 46 HRs. He's actually having a surprisingly good 2012, at least relative to Past Bronson Arroyo. He's still throwing tons of junk strikes but for some reason more hitters are letting them get over the plate. I can't wait unil he throws a 10 hit shutout against this team.

The only stat that has mattered this year for Wood is the HR. He's given up 18 in 15 starts, which is only a little better than Arroyo's 2011 rate. There's not much else good to point to – his strikeout rate isn't particularly impressive and he issues plenty of walks. That HR rate should regress, and he'll keep pitching like the 1-1.5 WAR guy that can eat innings in the back of the rotation, just as the Cubs probably expected when they picked him up.

Sunday: Johnny Cueto, RHP (2.58, 3.02, 3.56, 3.50) vs Brooks Raley, LHP (SSS), 1:20 PM CT

I was pretty skeptical of Cueto and Volquez after the 2010 season. Both were being heralded as a Great Young Core of the Reds rotation, but Cueto in particular had posted fairly pedestrian numbers with a ERA and FIP averaging around 4.5 or so over those seasons. When Cueto had a breakout 2011, posting a 2.31 ERA and 3.45 FIP I was still a little skeptical. He had a 3.90 xFIP and a ton of BABIP (.249)  and HR/FB (5.8%) luck. To be fair to Cueto though, he was still fairly young in those seasons. He turned 26 this year and a superficial read of his numbers says that he picked up right where he left off in 2011. However, they're actually much better. His strikeout rate moved up to 7.26 K/9, and while he's still suppressing HRs at a 6.3% clip he's putting up that great ERA-FIP split with a much more reasonable .308 BABIP. Not bad. Maybe he's just a guy who can keep a ball in the park, something that the Reds would sure love to see rub off on fellow groundballer Mike Leake.

Raley was one of the few success stories for Cubs pitching above the A level, but he's pretty much just dogmeat in the bigs. When your next best option is Casey Coleman though, you just have to shrug your shoulders. This is probably the biggest starter mismatch we've seen to this point in 2012.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (8-15) at Cincinnati Reds (11-11)

I'm swamped with work deadlines so this is going to be relatively short.

After a slow start to the season Cincy finished April strong, winnign series against NL central foes St. Louis, the Cubs, and the Astros. Jay Bruce is the hottest hitter in the NL right now, and has hit HRs in his last 4 games.

The Cubs splitting a series against the Phillies feels like a series win for this squad, though the fact that the Phillies roster is 5000 years old takes a bit of luster off the accomplishment.

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP vs Bronson Arroyo, RHP, 6:05 PM CT

Hopefully this is also 80s hair band night at GAB.

Samardzija looked good in his last outing after two rough ones. A big part of it could have been his velocity, which moved closer to his excellent first start after being down for starts two and three. He's had some bad luck with batted balls (.352 BABIP) but most of his problems seem to have been posthoc rationalized to be that he loses whatever program he's on and ends up having a big inning.

Arroyo has pitched shockingly well in his first four starts, and a big part of it is due to the fact that he's not walking anyone. He has just two walks in four starts. He's also giving up half as many homers as his career numbers would suggest. Fun fact – he posted a 5.71 FIP last year, and despite that was thrown out there for nearly 200 innings.

Wednesday: Paul Maholm, LHP vs Homer Bailey, RHP, 6:05 PM CT

Maholm finally had start where he did Paul Maholm things last time out. He still gave up a HR, which has been his main problem this year, but most importantly he induced 15 ground balls. He only had one strikeout, but blowing away hitters is not his gameplan.

Bailey's seen a small dip in his strikeout rate this year but has otherwise been right about what you would expect. He beat the Cubs on 4/20, giving up 4 runs (1 earned) in seven innings. Shockingly, he only managed to strikeout two members of this lineup.

Thursday: Ryan Dempster, RHP vs Mike Leake, RHP, 11:35 AM CT

Dempster looked great before his DL trip, and hopefully he can get back on track quickly. His injury never sounded *that* serious anyway.

Leake has not looked good at all this year. his strikeout rate has dipped below 4 K/9 and batters have hit 38% of balls in play for line drives. According to fangraphs pfx numbers, batters are just destroying his changeup.

Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds (5-8) at Chicago Cubs (3-10)

The Cubs aren't the only NL Central team that's scuffling early on. The Reds were a somewhat populat favorite to win the central this year with Pujols gone and Carpenter hurt in St. Louis. However, their offense hasn't seemed to wake up yet. Aside from Joey Votto (obviously) and Zack Cosart (who?) their regulars have all posted sub .300 wOBA numbers. New SP acquisition Mat Latos has struggled, and new closer Ryan Madson was knocked out for the year with elbow problems before the season even started. They beat Miami in their opening series but then dropped three straight series to the Cardinals and Nationals, avoiding the sweep in the last day of each of them.

Team Overviews

This year's stats, and NL Rank

  Reds Cubs
wOBA .265 (15th) .275 (13th)
BSR 0.7 (6th) 0.8 (5th)
UZR 0.5 (8th) 3.9 (3rd)
DRS -1 (6th) -2 (7th)
SP FIP 4.42 (14th) 3.70 (5th)
RP FIP 3.52 (6th) 4.96 (16th….by a mile)

Lineups

Updated ZiPS projections

Reds wOBA wOBA Cubs
SS Zack Cozart .312 .329 RF David DeJesus
CF Drew Stubbs .313 .293 2B Darwin Barney
1B Joey Votto .397 .338 SS Starlin Castro
2B Brandon Phillips .328 .313 LF Alfonso Soriano
RF Jay Bruce .341 .311 3B Ian Stewart
LF Ryan Ludwick .327 .344 1B Bryan LaHair
3B Scott Rolen .320 .329 C Geovany Soto
C Ryan Hanigan .306 .308 CF Marlon Byrd

Injuries

Aside from Ryan Madson being done for the year, the Reds bullpen is also missing Nick Masset. He's out with shoulder inflammation and was supposed to start throwing again last week, but it hasn't gone away just yet. They're also missing Dusty's current iteration of Jose Macias, Miguel Cairo, to a hamstring injury.

Probable pitchers

ERA, FIP, xFIP, and ZiPS FIP listed

Friday: Homer Bailey, RHP (5.40, 6.74, 4.94, 4.12) vs Chris Volstad, RHP (4.91, 2.88, 3.46, 4.44), 1:20 PM CT

Typically when I see a big split between a pitcher's numbers and their projections this early in the season, I figure it's mostly just bad luck, but Bailey hasn't had much bad luck on balls in play, he just hasn't been able to find the plate. He's walked seven batters in just under twelve innings in his two starts. He has had some bad HR luck which makes those walks hurt even more. Obviously it's just two starts, but the main thing that turned him into a decent pitcher over the last two years was the big drop in his walk rate over the past two seasons.

I was surprised to see Volstad's FIP sitting so low. If you look at all of his stats other than his ERA it looks like he's had a solid start to the year. He hasn't managed to get many groundballs relative to his past performance, but he's been striking more batters out and not giving many free passes. Teams just seem to be bunching up on him, scoring-wise.

Saturday: Mike Leake, RHP (5.84, 5.48, 4.27, 4.41) vs Paul Maholm, LHP (13.50, 9.47, 7.01, 4.12), 12:05 PM CT

Maholm has looked awful in his first starts, failing to get ground balls and giving up HRs. His strikout rate is down, but that's not really what he does anyway. He needs to get that sinker working right quick.

Leake has also struggled with HRs to start the year, and he's also struggled to strike anyone out (he has a lower K rate than Maholm!). Neither of these guys are big strikeout pitchers but it's a bigger drop in Leake's case. His sinker seems to be working just fine though – he got fourteen ground balls in six innings in his last start. This could be an especially ugly matchup of two struggling pitch to contact pitchers.

Sunday: Johnny Cueto, RHP (1.89, 4.02, 4.33, 3.82) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (1.33, 2.53, 2.97, 3.93), 1:20 PM CT

I always think Cueto is a very different pitcher than he is. I remember him as a big strikeout guy when he came up, but his strikeout rates have been in the pedestrian 6-7 K/9 range over the past few seasons. He's been a flyball pitcher for most of his career, but last year his GB% shot up by ten points. His three starts so far this year are a lot closer to his pre-2011 batted ball numbers so it's probably just a relatively large fluke.

Dempster has been great in three starts so far this year but has nothing to show for it, thanks to the Cubs anemic offense. Dempster has had some batted ball luck but the rest of his numbers are solid. He struck out eight in six innings in his last start.

Prediction

The Reds are scuffling and the Cubs are just what the doctor ordered. I think the Cubs win the last game to just avoid the sweep. It's a good thing Bronson Arroyo isn't starting this series, it would make this year that much mroe frustrating to see him throw 8 innings of shutout junkballing against the Cubs.

Series preview: Chicago Cubs (17-21) at Cincinnati Reds (23-17)

It hasn’t been too long since we saw the Reds, but in that span of time they’ve gone from a mediocre record to the top of the NL Central division. A big part of it is that they’re healthy again – Bailey, Cueto, and Scott Rolen are all back on the roster now. They’ve won eight of their last ten games. Luckily for the Cubs only play two games in this mini-series. Is there anything dumber than a two-game series? The Cubs fly to Cincy for two days, then fly to Miami, then up to Boston for the big, much-anticipated series in Fenway. Maybe I’m just bitter for all the extra work in writing three of these previews this week.

Team Overview

Here are the Reds team stats (and NL rank) I’ll also give the Cubs stats and ranks for comparison

wOBA: Reds: .343 (2nd), Cubs: .326 (3rd)
UZR: Reds: 8.7 (3rd), Cubs: -6.7 (11)
DRS: Reds: -9 (9th), Cubs: -22 (14th)
SP FIP: Reds: 4.09 (11th), Cubs: 4.06 (10th)
SP xFIP: Reds: 3.68 (7th), Cubs: 3.73 (9th)
RP FIP: Reds: 4.00 (14th), Cubs: 3.57 (6th)
RP xFIP: Reds: 3.99 (13th), Cubs: 4.00 (14th) 

It’s still kind of jarring to see the Cubs team hitting numbers look so good when they so often suck at plating runs. That wOBA isn’t AVG driven either – the Cubs also have the third best OBP in the NL. Fuck the heck?

Batters:

Player wOBA ZiPS wOBA
CF Drew Stubbs .388 .335
SS Paul Janish .256 .286
1B Joey Votto .444 .411
2B Brandon Phillips .379 .339
RF Jay Bruce .335 .356
3B Scott Rolen .332 .345
LF Jonny Gomes .325 .339
C Ramon Hernandez .437 .339

One reason why I was so down on the Reds going into this season was their offense. Joey Votto is a legit great hitter (and deserved the MVP) but a lot of their other regulars (Rolen, Edmonds, Hanigan, Stubbs) beat their projections, and I was expecting to see the regression stick knock down their numbers. So far they’re still getting great performances from some of their guys but when they revert to the merely above-average offense that they should be, will it be enough to win the division?

Pitchers:

Player FIP ZiPS FIP
RHP Edinson Volquez 5.56 4.03
RHP Bronson Arroyo 4.36 4.31
RHP Johnny Cueto 3.23 3.80
RHP Homer Bailey 1.32 3.86
LHP Travis Wood 3.42 3.53
RHP Francisco Cordero 4.08 3.88
RHP Sam LeCure 4.18 4.50

 

Monday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.35, 3.60, 4.11, 3.61) vs Homer Bailey, RHP (0.69, 1.32, 2.49, 3.86), 6:10 PM CT

I’m lazy so I’ll more or less copy what I wrote about Z in the rained out game. Z had another vaguely worrisome start against the Cardinals. He only struck out three batters, gave up eight line drives, and is still not getting enough ground balls. Lucky for him Carpenter also had a mediocre start, but he probably wouldn’t have been as lucky against Timmay.

Bailey was injured in spring trianing, and has only recently returned. He started two games and looked very well in each of them…but take his numbers with a larger than usual grain of salt as both starts were against the offensively pathetic Houston Astros. He allowed only one run in those 13 innings. His best pitch is his fastball so maybe Soriano could have a good game.

Tuesday: Matt Garza, RHP (4.17, 1.61, 2.15, 3.63) vs Edinson Volquez, RHP (5.74, 5.56, 4.32, 4.03), 6:10 PM CT

Garza had a poor performance in his last start against the Reds, giving up his only HR on the season to Jay Bruce. Oddly enough he kept the ball very much on the ground in that game, and his GB% overall this year is much higher than the rest of his career, which is even more unusual considering the spike in his strikeout rates. He bounced back from his poor outing against the Reds with a short though excellent performace in the Cubs 11-4 blowout of the Cardinals.

Volquez has been a mess all year, and his BB/9 numbers have gotten even worse from the last time the Cubs faced him. Oddly enough given all the walks he’s been issuing I’m surprised that he isn’t giving up even more runs. He’s walked 17 batters over the 21.2 innings of his last four starts but never gave up more than three ERs in those games. Hopefully the swing-happy types in the Cubs lineup read the memo, though my guess is that Ari Kaplan is frantically faxing Quade stat sheets saying that batters have historically hit .450 against Volquez in May when the weather is between 47 and 53 degrees in the Ohio river valley.

Prediction

Cubs lose the first game, and win the second. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one more rainout in these two games.

Continue reading “Series preview: Chicago Cubs (17-21) at Cincinnati Reds (23-17)”

Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds (16-15) at Chicago Cubs (14-16)

The Cubs went 4-3 on their trip out west, and a winning record on any such trip is a nice feat no matter the quality of the teams played. Today they start a 2 plus week stretch of games against good to great teams, capped off by an inevitable steamrolling in Fenway. They start this stretch with the Reds, my most irrationally hated team in baseball.

Team Overview

Team statistics and NL ranks

wOBA: .334 (2)
UZR: 9.6 (3)
DRS: -6 (7)
SP FIP: 4.36 (13)
SP xFIP: 3.67 (7)
RP FIP: 3.92 (12)
RP xFIP: 3.80 (7)

A FIP-xFIP split like this is not surprising given their home ballpark. I’m surprised by their pitching numbers, seeing as Cueto and Bailey were injured and Volquez has been ineffective.

Batters

Player wOBA ZiPS wOBA
CF Drew Stubbs .364 .328
RF Jay Bruce .323 .357
1B Joey Votto .465 .414
2B Brandon Phillips .406 .339
LF Jonny Gomes .347 .342
3B Miguel Cairo .276 .299
C Ramon Hernandez .364 .327
SS Paul Janish .278 .295

The Reds are sorely missing Scott Rolen, who is on the DL with shoulder soreness and has no timetable for return. They are also sorely missing a time machine to bring back Edgar Renteria from his days with the Cardinals.

Pitchers

Player ERA FIP ZiPS FIP
RHP Edinson Volquez 5.67 5.82 4.11
LHP Travis Wood 6.21 3.21 3.54
RHP Bronson Arroyo 4.17 4.44 4.33
RHP Johnny Cueto – – 3.99
RHP Homer Bailey 1.50 1.28 4.21
RHP Francisco Cordero 1.38 3.48 3.78
RHP Nick Masset 6.06 5.45 3.80

Bailey made his first start of the year yesterday, and Cueto is making his season debut in this series. Both of them were shut down in spring training with shoulder problems. Bailey had a good return, striking out 7 and giving up one run in 6 innings.

Pitching Matchups

Friday: Edinson Volquez, RHP (5.67, 5.82, 4.12, 4.11) vs Matt Garza, RHP (3.96, 1.16, 1.95, 3.65), 1:20 PM CT

This Garza guy has been pretty good for the Cubs. His BABIP luck is evening out and his ERA is starting to reflect it. He’s been worth 2 fWAR in only 6 starts. Those numbers speak for themselves.

It’s hard to believe that this is Volquez’s seventh season in the majors. He had his breakout season in 2008, which was his first year with the Reds after being traded for Josh Hamilton and his only season of 30+ starts. He followed it up with a lackluster 2009 that ended prematurely with Tommy John surgery and returned for twelve starts in the back half of the 2010 season with inevitable post TJS command issues. His biggest issue going forward is his career 4.82 BB/9 and there’s no sign of it improving in 2011. He’s had a hard time finding the plate, and to top it off batters who do get wood on the ball have been hitting it over the fence. His strikeout and ground ball rates are still right in line with what you’d expect, but giving up that many walks in GABP is just not a recipe for success. He turns 28 this year, and time could be running out on him to be the elite pitcher that the Reds are looking for. At least if he bounces back he’ll have a shot at the Rookie of The Year award (thank you, BBRAA for the gift that keeps on giving)

Saturday: Bronson Arroyo, RHP (4.17, 4.46, 3.73, 4.34) vs Casey Coleman, RHP (7.36, 6.23, 6.02, 4.87), 1:10 PM CT

Coleman had another poor start against the Snakes in his last start, walking 5 in five innings and lucky that he only gave up one HR on the 11 fly balls he induced. It was better than his pervious start, where the Dodgers hit seven line drives in less than three innings. Coleman hasn’t been the same pitcher we would have expected from his minor league numbers. His submediocre strikeout numbers still persist, but his walk and groundball rates have deviated far from what one would have expected, and taken him from the fringy starter he was projected as to the batting tee that he’s pitched like. Maybe he’ll turn it around, but his peripherals this season don’t point that way. We just have to hope his minor league numbers win out. Or better yet, Cashner gets here sooner. If Coleman disappoints again on Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramon Ortiz is called up to replace Coleman sometime before Cashner’s return.

Arroyo is a pitcher I love to hate and always underestimate. He’s the poster child for the Innings Eater class of starting pitchers who are kind of meh but stay healthy and crank out 2 WAR seasons. It also always seems like every time he plays the Cubs he goes deep into the game while setting career best strikeout numbers. It’s impressive that he’s brought so much production to the Reds despite the fact that he’s a fly ball pitcher in GABP. He’s putting up his usual impressively average numbers again this year.

Sunday: Johnny Cueto, RHP (-,-,-,3.99) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (8.05, 5.74, 3.90, 3.83), 1:20 PM CT

Cueto is penciled into this slot, but I’ve seen suggestions that he could make another rehab start which would mean that Mike Leake would probably get this start intead. Cueto was shut down in spring training with inflammation in his shoulder. However, when the Reds officially put him on the DL to start the season it was apparently listed as a triceps injury, which could lead to his season being sponsored by the letters T, J, and S.

Dempster replaced his imposter in his last start, finally throwing together the classic Dempster performance we’ve been waiting for all season. Demp struck out five, walked two, and got 11 ground balls to only two fly balls. He gave up 6 line drives so there’s still a little reason for concern but it looked like he was back. 

Prediction

Cubs take two out of three. They’re getting the Reds at the right time in this series – Volquez is still scuffling, and Cueto is still coming back from his injury (let’s just pretend that Dempster guy isn’t scuffling himself…) I’d vote for a sweep because I hate Bronson Arroyo and want to seem him lose, but I don’t have a lot of faith in Coleman right now.

Continue reading “Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds (16-15) at Chicago Cubs (14-16)”