Daily Facepalm 4.3.12

Was there a Cubs game yesterday?

The Cubs hit roughly 37 sac flies to beat the DBacks yesterday, and drag their spring trianing winning percentage to .500. Clearly I should place a big bet on the Cubs winning 81 games this year. Kerry Wood pitched a scoreless inning, and Jay Jackson had a meh start. Jeff Samardzija threw four scoreless innings in a minor league start.

Is there a Cubs game today?

The Cubs play the Brewers in what will be the last Cactus league game of the season. Travis Wood will start for the Cubs, as well as most if not all of the opening day lineup. The Brewers also have an exhibition game against the DBacks later tonight in whatever they're calling the BOB these days, so it will probably mostly be minor leaguers from them today. The game will be broadcast on WGN radio.

Expected lineup

RF DeJesus

2B Barney

SS Castro

1B Lahair*

LF Soriano

3B Stewart

CF Byrd

C Soto

P Wood

*LaHair has sat out a few games with a stiff back, and could miss this one too. I get the vibe that it's something he would play through in the regular season, but there's no point in playing through it in a meaningless ST game.

Marmol working on more than just locating his fastball

Carlos Marmol and the Cubs also seem to be aware of the drop in Marmol's fastball velocity last year. So he made a few changes to his grip, adding more movement and sink to it to make up for the drop in velocity. It would help explain his struggles in early spring, and he's had six consecutive scoreless outings. Clearly he'll post a 0.00 ERA. He'll lose the handle on it from time to time but this sounds like good news to me.

Extended news

Two big extensions were signed yesterday. Matt Cain signed a 5/112.5 deal with the Giants, and Reds star 1B Joey Votto signed a monster 10/225 deal. Seeing Votto around the NL central for the next decade is obviously going to have a bigger effect on the team, but the Cain deal could have ramifications for a possible extension of Matt Garza. John at Cubs Den has a piece up looking at how it might affect the Cubs negotiations.

Carrie Muskat makes a Romney-esque endorsement of the Cubs

In the beginning of an article about how the Cubs believe their hard work will pay off:

On paper, the 2012 Cubs may not scare many teams. New third baseman Ian Stewart hit zero home runs last season in the big leagues and is replacing someone who could be counted on for 20-plus dingers and 90-something RBIs. First baseman Bryan LaHair had nearly as many at-bats in Venezuela this winter as he has in the Majors. The bullpen may include a slender 22-year-old making the leap from Class A to the show.

Who's ready for some baseball! Yeah!

Baserunning fluff

Reed Johnson gets mega-pats on the back for scoring from third on a shallow flyout in yesterday's game. Sveum has emphasized aggressive baserunning this spring, but judging from what we've seen it hasn't paid off. I'm all for aggressive baserunning, but the Cubs to stress smarter aggressive baserunning, stuff like going from first to third more often, not just simply attempting more stolen bases or ill-advised sac-fly scoring attempts for the sake of aggressiveness. This team does not have good speed.

Ubaldo Jimenez suspended five games

The gutless pitcher was allegedly sending a message to his former team by throwing at their franchise player. It sounds like things got really nasty in that locker room before they traded him.

Forum highlight

Josh started a Blackhawks thread in the forum yesterday. Feel free to jump in and discuss your favorite team that was recently freed from the clutches of a miserly owner.

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OV Season Predictions contest

If you haven't done so already. check out our over/under contest from last night. The winner gets an OV t-shirt and next year's Hardball Times Annual.

OV Bracket Challenge Champion

Congrats to jtsunami on winning the OV Bracket Challenge with 1450 points. You get a free subscription to the blog for one year. Doc Blume's B1G-hating bracket came in second, and Berselius took third. Suburban Kid came in last place, so he has to pay for the prize.

Daily Facepalm 4.2.2 – Almost there edition

Was there a Cubs game yesterday?

Hola amigos. It's been a long time since I rapped at ya. The Cubs pounded the LAAoLAoAoDLoBA yesterday 8-1. Jared Weaver shut the Cubs down for five innning and fell apart in the sixth. Jeff Baker and Reed Johnson treated him like a lefty, hitting a monster HR off the batters eye and not long after hitting an easy triple. Tony Campana did Tony Campana things, getting on base with a grounder that got just past the 2b, stealing second (on a pitchout, no less), going to third on a wild pitch, and then being rewarded for his basepathsery by scoring from third on Jeff Baker's HR. Chris Rusin had a strong start against the Pujols-less linup. For some reason Matt Garza started a minor league game yesterday instead, which seems strange, because it's not like the Cubs have to worry about the Angels seeing too much of Matt Garza.

Is there a Cubs game today?

Jay Jackson starts against the DBacks in Scottsdale. Len and Mick have the call on mlb.com.

Are there real Cubs games soon?

Almost there…

Bullpen still taking shape

There are 8 pitchers left in camp for 7 spots: Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, James Russell, Rafael Dolis, Shawn Camp, Rodrigo Lopez, Lendy Castillo, and Manny Corpas. I'm guessing it's going to come down to Corpas and Castillo for the last spot. Camp looked pretty good yesterday (it may have been his Cubs debut, can't remember), striking out three in 1.2 innings.

Sveum and Soriano pushing Castro hard

Castro's been making a huge effort to work on his defense, both before the season started and afterwords. Aside from the daily personal attention that Sveum has been giving him, he's been getting work in early on his hitting every day with Alfonso Soriano.

News in fireworks factories

The Red Sox are complaining about Chris Carpenter's elbow injury and could be "exploring" re-opening the Theo compensation. That's just their due diligence though, they had full access to Carpenter's medicals, as well as giving him a physical themselves, and Carpenter told Ace Cubs Beat Reporter Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he felt great coming into spring training, and it just flared up in his last outing.

One thing that surprised me in the immediate aftermath and analysis of the Carpenter trade was that no one really mentioned his injury history. It's what put him in the bullpen in the first place. Though I'm guessing that the bone spurs are just a thing, and probably not correlated with his earlier problems.

The Noodle

Is back, unless this was a product of National Troll Day yesterday.

Cue cubbiejulie rage stroke

Speaking of National Troll Day

This one was pretty good:

In between innings of the game against the Nationals, the Cardinals’ public address announcer stated that the team was giving a car away to a lucky fan. Lance Berkman drove the vehicle onto the field, causing a Wainwright double-take from the dugout. Berkman then proceeded to “give away” Wainwright’s Chevy Silverado to the fan, a cousin of David Freese who was in on the joke from the start.

Phil Rogers on the Cubs investments in Cuban prospects

What we've learned: Poor English skills are a bigger barrier to moving up the ladder than breaking your ankle. How else will players learn the best place to eat lunch when they travel?

Sucks if you have DirectTV

The Tribune and DirectTV have failed to come to an agreement, so DirectTV's ~20 millon subscribers no longer have access to WGN or Trib-owned local tv stations through their dish. And it's not like they can just head out to a bar to watch the game – most bars get their signal from DirectTV themselves due to the Sunday Ticket package. They might work something out eventually, though missing a lot of Cubs games might not be a bad thing with this year's team.

Forum Highlight

This is a blog, not a message board, so take your discussions about last night's awesome Game of Thrones, sexism at Augusta National, and the lameness of the Olympics over here.

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Did the Cubs really add that much depth?

Over on Cubs Den (a really good blog), John talks about how the Cubs have quietly built depth to give them trade flexibility. I want to look at his bullets one by one because I just don't agree with the conclusion that John is reaching. John is attributing this depth to Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer too, which is another thing I mostly disagree with. I know some people find the count/counterpoint kind of dickish, but I hope it doesn't come off that way. It's not my intention. I like John's work. I just disagree with him here. And I felt I need to do it this way to stress where I disagreed.

Marlon Byrd: The Cubs have Brett Jackson to take his place in the very near future, although they could start with Joe Mather and/or Reed Johnson in CF if they feel they want to give Jackson a few more swings in Iowa, where he hasn't played a full season.

Jackson was drafted by the Cubs in the 1st round in 2009. It was the most excited I'd been at any Cubs first round pick since Mark Prior. It was a fantastic selection by a team that had become known for being old school. He developed even better than expected and has become a top 50 prospect. Credit Jim Hendry and staff for this one; not Thoyer.

Joe Mather is the type of player that every team signs leading up to spring training. These are guys that no team wants so I have a very difficult time considering Mather depth. Perhaps he'll perform better than people expect, but until we see that he's nothing more than a below replacement level back-up who wouldn't make two-thirds of the rosters in baseball. The Cubs brought Reed Johnson back last year and the team re-signed him after Reed's excellent season at the plate. This was a no-brainer. The only question was whether Reed would want to play for a team that had a chance to contend. He can play on an every day basis if needed, but you'll get replacement level production from him once he starts facing right handers in nearly 70% of his plate appearances.

The Cubs haven't added any real depth at this position that they didn't already have. Other than Brett Jackson who was in the system before the new regime came along, the Cubs depth has mostly been nothing more than replacement level players. Most here are familiar with the concept, but for those who aren't, a replacement level player is someone is readily available for league minimum. This includes the career AAAA labeled players and players found on the waiver wire.

These players have no real value and every team has them. Every team has easy access to more of them. If Reed Johnson plays everyday, he's basically a replacement level player. Mather? He's probably not even that good. I have a hard time accepting replacement level talent as depth because every team already has those guys and they can add more of them for league minimum if they want.

If replacement level talent counts as depth, we have to consider the depth that a team like the Pirates. If you take away the pitchers batting, few players were below replacement for them last year. Most of the innings pitched were by guys better than replacement level. We could look back over several years and we'll find the same thing. They've been bad, but better than replacement level as a team. Replacement level for a team is 48 to 49 wins.

Randy Wells: The Cubs made building starting rotation depth a priority from day one. Assuming Chris Volstad and Jeff Samardzija have won the last two spots, Wells is starting pitching depth along with Travis Wood, Casey Coleman, and Rodrigo Lopez.

The Cubs did add some depth here, but is it quality depth? Take a look at the starters any team runs out there in years they have injuries and I'm not sure this group is in any way better than what you'll see from the typical team. I'm not even sure this group is better than the guys the Cubs ran out there last year when players were out with injury. They'll likely perform better than that group, but you could take the same group from last year and that would be equally true.

Let's consider the depth the Cubs had at this position entering last season. They had Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner in the opening day rotation. That's significantly better than this year's rotation. They also had Casey Coleman and James Russell. The Cubs top pitching prospect had skyrocketed through the system and already played half a season in AA. He wasn't far from the big leagues and was part of the depth the Cubs had last year. Had he not suffered through blisters early in the season he'd more than likely have made his big league debut no later than the end of May.

The Cubs depth at pitching this year is actually worse. Prior to last season there was a chance Russell could have been a decent starter. I don't mean decent in a way that you'd like someone like that in your rotation, but at the very least he was a replacement level starter. Coleman had some solid numbers in the minors. McNutt was coming off of an excellent season. Jay Jackson was still young enough. The Rorigo Lopez's of the world will fall into your lap this year just as they did a year ago.

The Cubs traded Cashner. McNutt had a season filled with non-pitching related injuries and when he did pitch he was less than impressive. Jay Jackson is older and still hasn't put it together in AAA. Coleman will probably not get another chance to start and neither will Russell. So the Cubs added Volstad, Wood, and Sonnanstine. Sonnanstine is already gone. Wood is ticketed for the minors after a disastrous spring. Rodrigo Lopez hangs around and nobody is sure why.

The depth the Cubs had a year ago has been decimated with injuries and ineffectiveness. In their place the Cubs have added replacement level pitchers.

Jeff Baker: The obvious replacement is Joe Mather. He is another RH batter who can play the 4 corners, just as Baker does. Baker has the advantage that he can also play 2B while Mather can play CF. Baker is the better hitter but Mather may have more pop and speed.

At the big league level over the last two years, Mather has a 53 OPS+ in 147 PA. While that's not a large sample, we have many years of minor league data to look at. He was nothing more than a league average hitter in the friendly PCL each of the last 2 years and below average in 2009. He's been in AAA for several years now. He's had less than 50 plate appearances in spring training. Mather hasn't been better than average in the minors since 2008. Since then he's done nothing but remain in AAA and been unimpressive. At the age of 29 or 30 he's not likely to be anyone's replacement at the big league level.

Sample size and quality of opponents is important to consider here. Mather has only 52 plate appearances this spring. Lorenzo Cain leads the way with an OPS over 1.300. Cain turns 26 in a couple weeks and boasts a minor league OPS under .800. His MLB OPS is under .750. Alex Liddi is above Mather and has a minor league OPS of just over .800. 26 year old Zack Cozart and his career minor league OPS of .753 has a spring OPS of 1.101. Dexter Fowler, an established MLB player, has the worst spring OPS of .330.

The reason these numbers are so considerably different than usual is sample size. Take Joe Mather's .442 OBP. Over 52 plate appearances 1 standard deviation is .074. If the only information we had on Mather was this .442 OBP and the 52 PA, we could use that to calculate a range of true talent. There's a 95% chance it's between .292 and .592. So Mather and his pretty OBP doesn't mean anything over 52 PA. Especially when you have over 3400 professional plate appearances during the regular season (almost all of them in the minor leagues).

Blake DeWitt: The Cubs have a carbon copy, though younger and cheaper version in Adrian Cardenas. Both offensively oriented LH hitters whose primary role would be as a complement to the defensively oriented, RH hitting Darwin Barney. I also find it curious that Alfredo Amazega's playing time seems to be increasing lately. He's the one Cubs utility IF'er who can play a respectable SS. I think he's a lock for Iowa and perhaps more if the Cubs make a couple of deals.

I would point out here that every team in baseball had a chance to pick DeWitt up after the Cubs took him off their 40-man roster. No team did and Blake was more than happy to just accept a minor league contract and invite to spring training. I have no idea what he's done this month, but if teams didn't want anything to do with him a month ago when they could have had him for nothing, they'll want nothing to do with him now. Spring training stats just aren't as valuable as many people think.

Furthermore, every team had a chance to pick up Cardenas and Amezaga. Every team passed because they already had their own version of them.

Geovanny Soto: The Cubs have two major league ready catchers in Welington Castillo and Steve Clevenger. Neither is as good as Soto, but they are cheaper and capable of putting up decent numbers between the two of them.

Both players were signed/drafted and developed when Hendry ran this team. There is depth at this position. Castillo and Clevenger both figure to be at least slightly better than replacement, but neither has much of a chance of being a starting catcher for very long.

Of the players listed here, perhaps only the back-up catchers offer real value other than the prospects in CF and 1B. It's possible Volstad improves. The same could be said for Wood, but the rest of these guys are what they are and most of them were in the organization before Thoyer took over.

Regardless of who is responsible, the Cubs lack depth at all postions except catcher, center field and first base. Hendry was responsible for the depth at the first two and this group traded former top prospect Andrew Cashner to acquire depth at 1st base.

The Cubs have made baby steps so far. Some might even question that. They're not better in any noticeable way this year than they otherwise would have been.

————————-

Correction: Brett pointed out that every team did not have a chance to acquire Cardenas. Only the AL teams and the Astros (worse record than the Cubs in the NL) had a chance.

Daily Facepalm 3.14.12

Practice Game recap

Chris Volstad pitched three strong inninngs yesterday, extending his spring training scoreless streak to six innings. As with Samardzija and the other starter candidates, small sample size abounds, but I think he's got a good shot making the rotation. Tom Ricketts seemed to think so too during his brief time in the booth with Len and Mick. Former top prospect Jay Jackson also pitched yesterday, surprisingly for three innings. Jackson completely fell off the radar after his disastrous 2010 season in Iowa. Jackson gave up one run and struck out one. Long man/pitching depth candidate Andy Sonnanstine had a rough outing, giving up three runs and nearly the lead in the eighth inning.

Offensively the star was Anthony Rizzo, who crushed a mammoth HR off of Giants reliever Sergio Romo. Josh Vitters hit an RBI triple earlier in the game. Starlin Castro managed to avoid a TOOTBLAN thanks to the stat's originator.

Is there a Cubs game today?

Indeed. Randy Wells takes the mound against the Brewers at HoHoKam today at 3 pm CT. Travis Wood and Casey Coleman are also pitching. Coleman pitching again so soon seems to point to the Cubs bullpenning him this year. Len and Mick have the call, and Randy Wolf will start for the Brewers.

Lineup:

RF DeJesus

CF Byrd

SS Castro

3B Stewart

2B Baker

C Soto

LF Johnson

1B Rizzo

P Wells

Is it just me, or are the Cubs regulars getting a lot more starts than they have in years past?

Great piece about baseball on the radio by wpbc

Worth a read.

Concepcion in camp, "not nervous" about playing here

Cubs blog Ivy Envy got a mini-interview with Concepcion, He's very comfortable in camp and the Cubs have made him feel comfortable. Not sure if he reported it in this interview or earlier, but he says he throws a fastball, a circle change, and a "hard" curveball.

Perils of media access

(via hardballtalk). The Mets blog Amazin Avenue has a good piece up about media access and smear jobs. The whole thing is worth a read, but here's the best part:

Rubin says the press can't be expected to not report a story, even if it's an obvious whisper campaign. But the press can and should be expected to report a story in full. If an item appears to be a hatchet job by Mets brass, then reporters should perform due diligence and at least attempt to get all sides of that story before filing. In this case, that effort was made poorly, if at all. Maybe this happened because of the rush to be first, or the accelerated news cycle of the internet age. Whatever the reason, it happened nonetheless, and it shouldn't have.

The only reason I can come up with as to why this story was put out there unquestioned is because it came straight from ownership. So failing to report the "story" could not only mean getting scooped, but losing access as well. I understand that in journalism access trumps all, but what good is access if all it buys you is closer proximity to lies, half-truths, and axe-grinding? And what is a reporter's job if not to question the "official" story?

Chicago media take note.

Finally final Theo compensation in Red Sox hands

Per Peter Gammons

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qppa

asllda

Seriously though, Gammons tweeted that the rest of this process is in the Red Sox hands, and will be decided by the end of the month. They get to pick one prospect from a list of three, and choose who to send back to the Cubs.

Sveumquotes

Per Sveum, Marmol's main goal this spring training is to work on locating his fastball. He's not too worried about Marmol's slider, and Marmol hasn't thrown many of them this spring. Not surprisingly Sveum is not considering demoting Marmol.

Sveum also commented on the handedness problem I've brought up a few times when talking about Joe Mather and the Cubs corner infielders. His chances of squeaking by Blake DeWitt or Tony Campana look better than they did yesterday.

Bruce Levine chat recap

Some nuggets from Bruce Levine's chat yesterday

For some reason Bruce doesn't think Maholm has a rotation spot locked down.
Bruce is also down on Wells, calls him "not a favorite" for the rotation. Lots of hedging though, no decisions are going to be made for another week or two.
There's been a lot of teams interested in Marlon Byrd. Once May/June rolls around and the Cubs can get the extra year of control for Brett Jackson, they should have an easy time moving him.
Bruce also says that the smart money is on Mather making the team over Campana, due to the way their options are structured. They can stash Campana in the minors, but Mather can void his deal if he's not in the bigs after the first month or so
On how tough it is for a player to change his approach: "It's difficult to change a player's style once he gets to the majors. Jaramillo did it with DeWitt last spring and it took DeWitt almost four months to absorb all of Rudy's philosophical teachings. It also [cost] DeWitt his job."

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Happy Pi Day

Please ignore any of the fools who go on and on about how "purists" think that tau is a better constant. It doesn't matter.

Teams interested in Matt Garza and Sean Marshall

The rumors surrounding teams interested in Matt Garza have been around for a long time. Every year teams have inquired on his availability so it’s no surprise he’s once again the target of trade speculation. Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that teams were also interested in Sean Marshall. The Cubs are set to undergo a rebuilding project that will likely take a few years at the very least. As a result, every player on the roster is available for the right price.

Garza has two years left while Marshall has only one year remaining. We’ve talked about Garza’s trade value before, but haven’t looked at Marshall’s. He’s set to earn $3.1 million in the final year of the 2-year contract he signed last offseason. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end so his value is limited. Marshall ranked 5th in fWAR among relievers in 2010 and 3rd in 2011. He’s combined for 5 fWAR the last two years and has established himself as the best reliever on the Cubs. He’s one of the better relievers in baseball.

Oliver projects 2 WAR from him in 2012. That makes him worth $10 million and gives the Cubs a surplus trade value of $6.5 million. The compensation system changes dramatically next year under the new CBA. In order to qualify for draft pick compensation a team will have to offer their free agenta qualifying offer for more than $12 million. There is no chance that the Cubs or any other team would offer Sean Marshall that kind of money. Marshall would have been a type A under the previous CBA and would have been worth an additional $5 million. That’s not so anymore. His total surplus trade value is the $6.5 million mentioned before.

A Grade B pitcher is valued at $7.3 million while a grade B hitter is worth about $5.5 million. Using last year’s Cubs top prospects by John Sickels we see that Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson were grade B pitchers. Josh Vitters was a B-. That gives you an idea of the caliber of player the Cubs could expect in return. It’s difficult to say whether he’d be worth more or less. Teams tend to overpay for relievers, but realistically speaking you’re probably better off expecting a somewhat marginal return. Marshall is good, but he’s a reliever. He’s going to pitch 70 innings per season for a team that will pitch about 1450 innings. He’s a very small piece to the puzzle, but he is good enough that he’s going to provide significant value.

Continue reading “Teams interested in Matt Garza and Sean Marshall”

“You better know who your ninth starter’s going to be”

I’ve been a bit confused by one of Theo’s comments since taking over as President of Baseball Operations.

“We need starting pitching. You can’t take your chances very seriously as a club if you go in to the season without, not just five guys you can point to, but six, seven and eight guys. You better know who your ninth starter’s going to be because you’re going to need him. The numbers show that you’re going to need your ninth starter at some point during the course of the year.

“So we have to build our starting pitching depth. We don’t have a ton of depth beyond the obvious guys who are in the rotation right now. That’s a priority.”

Obviously a team needs depth at starting pitching. Then again, a team needs depth in the bullpen, infield, outfield, and behind the plate. Depth is without a doubt an important part of building a contending team. There will be injuries and you have to replace them with competent ballplayers. But do you really need to know your 9th starter is going to be?

That’s probably overstating it. I really doubt Theo Epstein and/or Jed Hoyer really need to know who the 9th starter is going to be. I think, or rather I’m hopeful, that what he means is that you need depth. I think the Cubs are focusing too much on starting pitching and not enough on offense. There are a couple reasons for this. First, the offense is a lot worse than the pitching staff. Second, there are some high quality starting pitchers who will be available via free agency over the next few years while there is little that will be available offensively. So it’s going to be a lot easier to find pitching in the years to come than it will be to find offensive firepower.

Arguing about which is more important to this team is another issue entirely. It’s something that deserves further exploration, but right now I’m curious why they feel they need to be 9 deep in the rotation. Have the Red Sox ever needed a 9th starter? If so, how much have they had to rely on him?

Before I started looking into this I expected that over the years they surely had to have a 9th and probably even 10th or 11th starter. I expected that happened in not just one year, but multiple years. That being said, I also expected that those starters would make few starts and I think if we looked deeper we’d probably find they were primarily spot starts. I wanted to look into the number of starters the Sox needed each year.

In 2003, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, John Burkett and Tim Wakefield made 29 or more starts. Casey Fossum and Jeff Suppan combined for 24 starts and four others made a combined 14 starts.

The following year Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield, Curt Schilling and Bronson Arroyo each made 29 or more starts. Byung-Hyun Kim made 3 while Pedro Astacio and Abe Alverez each started one game apiece.

In 2005, Wakefield, Arroyo, Matt Clement and David Wells each made 30 or more starts. Wade Miller and Curt Schilling combined for 27. Clement and Miller weren’t the only former Cubs to start a game for the Sox that year. Former top prospect Geremi Gonzalez made 3 of them. John Halama and Lenny DiNardo each started one game. Jonathan Papelbon started 3 time.

The 2006 Red Sox rotation had all kinds of injury problems. 14 different pitchers started a game and only Josh Beckett and Schilling started more than 23.

It’s clear at this point that the Sox have gone 9 or more deep in their rotation several times, but I’m still not convinced it’s something you have to plan for. Seriously, if your 9th starter is taking the ball every 5th day for more than a few turns in the rotation you’re probably in big trouble.

93 times the Red Sox have needed an 8th or higher starter since 2003. In Jed Hoyer’s two years in San Diego he needed an 8th starter 6 times and didn’t have to call on a 9th starter. In 11 seasons at the helm between these two they’ve needed at least and 8th starter 99 times. I’m not sure how many innings those guys have pitched, but I’d estimate fewer than 5 innings per start for that caliber a starter. If we estimate an average of 4.5 innings pitched that’s 445 innings. Roughly 41 innings each season have been pitched by an 8th starter or higher. That’s about what you’d expect to get from your 4th best reliever.

Those 41 innings are mostly from the 8th starter’s position of course. There are significantly fewer thrown from starters worse than that. So far the Cubs have paid no attention to pitching so we have to question whether or not Theo was serious. I highly doubt he cares all that much if he knows the name of the guy who would be the 9th starter. I think what he said is nothing more than emphasizing the need for depth. I don’t believe he or Jed are crazy enough to think a 9th starter is all that valuable. There’s just no reason to believe that they’ve been faced with needing a valuable 9th starter over the course of their careers.

You’re essentially looking for the quality of a middle reliever for your 8th starter. The 9th starter would be even worse. The Cubs currently have on their roster Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and Randy Wells who would be sure things for the rotation. If the season opened today the 5th starter would probably be Andrew Cashner or Jeff Samardzija. Casey Coleman has made several big league starts so he’d be the 7th guy. Trey McNutt could make some emergency starts. So could Chris Carpenter, Rafael Dolis and Jay Jackson.

I’d like to see the Cubs go after a really good starting pitcher, but they’ve let two free agents sign with other teams and the only quality starters remaining are Roy Oswalt and maybe Paul Maholm. Yu Darvish is available, but will cost a lot of money. If the Cubs are only interested in adding depth I’m not convinced they don’t already have it. If they want to improve the rotation then signing Roy Oswalt or Yu Darvish would be a good idea.

Speaking of Darvish, it brings up something else that has irritated me. For more than a year now the media and fans have said that Darvish could be “just another Daisuke Matsuzaka.” Dice-K was worth 8.3 rWAR in his first two seasons in the US. He struckout nearly a batter per inning and while his walk rate (4.2 per 9) he still struckout 2 batters per walk. He led the league in hits per 9 in his second season allowing fewer than 7 hits per 9 innings. His ERA+ was 127 over those two years. Then he was hit with some injuries. That happens with pitchers. Any time you sign a pitcher you accept that he could spend a lot of time on the DL. He was never the same after the injuries, but early on he more than lived up to expectations.

Darvish is younger and was a significantly better pitcher in Japan. There really is no comparison between the two, but if the best you have is that Dice-K didn’t live up to expectations you’re wrong. He lived up to them and then got injured. Happens all the time.

This doesn’t mean I want the Cubs to shell out $100 million or more to acquire him. I’m just saying that any pitcher could just be another Dice-K. Dice-K was just another Mark Prior. Mark Prior was just another Kerry Wood and so on.

Continue reading ““You better know who your ninth starter’s going to be””

What the Cubs have to consider at the Winter Meetings

We haven’t talked a lot about what the Cubs need to do this offseason. When the season ended they were without a GM so it made no sense. After they hired Theo and he assembled his front office it was difficult to know which direction the Cubs may go. There have been indications they’re willing to trade anybody and everybody, but there also have been indications the Cubs will be buyers as they’ve reportedly shown interest in Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. In past years I was comfortable in writing about what the Cubs can, need or should do because I was familiar with Jim Hendry. I’m somewhat familiar with Theo Epstein, but this is a situation unlike any team he fielded in Boston. It may actually be more informative to look at what Jed Hoyer did a year into his GM job with the Padres. They were sellers.

I don’t see the Cubs having a fire sale. They don’t have the talent that would net them much in return if they had one. It’s also a large market team with a lot of money to spend so a fire sale is always going to be unlikely. But trading a player here or there may help them accomplish two goals: building the farm system and allowing them more payroll flexibility to get better at the MLB level. I think we’ll see that, which is why we’ve heard rumors about the Cubs being willing to trade Matt Garza and that they’re interested in someone like Pujols or Fielder.

So instead of talking about what the Cubs might do based on any historical context, I’m going to talk about what the Cubs have to do to field a team next year. Not necessarily a team that will contend, but the Cubs do have to have 25 guys on opening day who can play baseball.

Everyday Position Players

The Cubs have Geovany Soto behind the plate and at least a couple non-Koyie Hill options to back-up. They have Welington Castillo and Steve Clevenger who would make league minimum and can’t possibly be less valuable than Hill. Soto had a poor year at the plate last year and the projections see him as an average hitting catcher, which is pretty damn good for the position.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration and will more than likely decline. Assumig he is gone, which is what the Cubs are thinking, they have fill 1st base. Bryan LaHair is the only realistic in-house option. The free agent market does have two exciting names in Pujols in Fielder. It’s hard for me to imagine that the Cubs acquire either of them. My guess is that they acquire a right-handed platoon player and go with whoever that is and Bryan LaHair.

Darwin Barney became a fan favorite early in the season last year, but as the season progressed his bat was almost nonexistent. The Cubs currently have a potential platoon ready for 2nd base in Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt. I’m guessing one or both of them is traded and I’m going to say the Cubs sign free agent Kelly Johnson. Johnson earned $5.85 million a year ago and while he didn’t come close to matching the .377 wOBA, 5.9 WAR season he had in 2010, he was still worth 2.2 fWAR last year. His wOBA was .316, which was a bit below average, but Total Zone thinks he’s been a very good fielder in his career and UZR agrees with that over the last couple years. Bill James projects a .336 wOBA. With some good defense he could easily be worth 3 WAR next year. He’ll probably come at a discount too. It’s unlikely he’ll cost about $15 million over 3 years, which is what he’s worth. He could probably be had for a 3-year deal for $24 million or so.

Aramis Ramirez‘s long career with the Cubs is about to come to an official end. He was also offered arbitration, but will turn it down. The same potential 2nd base platoon of Baker and DeWitt is an option here. The free agent market for 3rd basemen is weak to say the least. If the Cubs fill this position by anyone not already a Cub it will more than likely be through a trade. I’m kind of surprised we haven’t heard more about 3rd base. I think it’s more of a hole than 1st base. Filling Ramirez’s shoes isn’t going to happen, but I do expect whoever mans that position will be a much better fielder than Ramirez and presumably a much better baserunner.

While the Cubs are reportedly willing to trade anyone, they’d have to get an offer they can’t refuse to trade Starlin Castro. That’s probably not going to happen. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Cubs started working on a long-term contract with Castro after the arbitration eligible players are all taken care of. I think we’ll hear more about that when spring training starts.

I’m going to skip left field for now and point out that CF and RF are filled for the time being. It’s possible the Cubs look into trading Marlon Byrd, but I’d be surprised if that happens. Byrd is still worth more than he’s being paid and so is recently signed free agent David DeJesus.

I think Alfonso Soriano will be traded. They are reportedly willing to eat a sizable chunk of the money owed to him over the next 3 years. Some team will take a shot. I think we’ll see Brett Jackson in CF on Opening Day and Marlon Byrd will shift to LF. If not the first game of the season, I think the plan is to have Jackson up no later than the middle of May. I don’t expect the Cubs to sign any other outfielder. I think they trade Soriano and maybe stick Jeff Baker in LF for 6 weeks if Jackson doesn’t begin the season in Chicago.

Rotation

We’ve heard rumors that the Cubs are willing to trade Matt Garza and Randy Wells. I’m not sure either makes much sense, but if you get a good enough offer then they should. The rotation as of right now would be Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells and a 5th starter. The 5th starter could be Andrew Cashner though I’m guessing he’s bullpen only at this point. It could also be Jeff Samardzija, but I think that would fail miserably. There was a rumor a couple weeks back that the Cubs were interested in Chris Capuano, which would have been a good signing, but he just signed with the Dodgers.

The Cubs don’t have any in-house options at the moment. Casey Coleman isn’t very good. The same is true of Jay Jackson. Trey McNutt had a poor year last year in AA so he has yet to prove he’s deserving of a spot in the big league rotation.

Mark Beuhrle is a free agent and was tied to the Cubs at one point. It’s hard to imagine him ever wearing a Cubs uniform, but he’s still a good pitcher. Roy Oswalt is a free agent and is also still good. CJ Wilson is the best free agent pitcher available. Brandon Webb was an elite starter, but missed the last two seasons and only threw 4 innings in 2009. He’s not anybody you could count on, but he’s a guy I could see the Cubs taking a flyer on. Why not?

Yu Darvish is also likely to be posted in Japan, but will cost a lot of money. He’s still quite young for a Japanese player coming to the US and fits the profile of the free agent that Theo and Hoyer were talking about (still in their prime).

My guess is the Cubs make a run at Darvish, but fall short to the Red Sox. I’ll also guess they sign Buehrle and/or Oswalt. I still think Zambrano is traded so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs acquire a 5th starter type either.

Bullpen

Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall are each returning and making up one of the better 8th/9th inning combos in baseball. Sean Marshall is actually the better pitcher and due to Marmol’s inconsistency I do expect we’ll see Marshall become the closer at some point in 2012. I also expect the Cubs to work out a long-term contract with Marshall before the season begins. When Theo was asked the other day about Marshall being a starter he said they weren’t going to move the best left-handed reliever in the game into the rotation. Marshall has one year left on his contract and I don’t think the Cubs want him to test free agency next year. Look for Marshall to be locked up through 2014 or 2015 by the time the season begins.

Jeff Samardzija’s numbers looked OK last year, but the walk rate is still quite high. Andrew Cashner is healthy and between the two of them they can take care of the 6th and 7th innings.

The Cubs have a number of other options including: Casey Coleman, James Russell, John Gaub, Marcos Mateo, Alberto Cabrera, Jeff Beliveau and Chris Carpenter. Russell actually fared quite well vs lefties last season. He struckout 7.1 per 9 and walked only 0.6 per 9 to give a 12 to 1 K/BB ratio.

Bench

The bench is always the last thing to put together and it depends on who the starters are. If Jeff Baker and/or Blake DeWitt find themselves being starter or part of a platoon, there will be other lesser bench players added. Jeff Baker can’t hit righties, but he hits lefties very well. I’d like the Cubs to hold onto him, but won’t be surprised if he’s traded. Darwin Barney would be better off being a bench player. He could play some SS on occasion, fill in at 2nd and maybe even fill in at 3rd base. He’s a good fielder too so a late inning replacement is always a good thing to have around. In the outfield the Cubs have Tony Campana, but unless he can get on base he has almost no value and he can’t get on base. Despite that, I feel confident in saying he’s as valuable or more valuable in LF than Alfonso Soriano.

Depth

I had planned to write more in depth about this, but let’s face it, the Cubs just don’t have much of this and it’s not something you can just buy on the free agent market. Theo talked about needing to have 9 starters and the Cubs are lucky to have 4 right now. Finding another 5 isn’t something you can just make happen. I expect at least 2 starters will be signed for the big league club and we’ll begin to hear talk about how Jay Jackson could provide some innings if needed. That’s not going to be a good thing. Even if we include Casey Coleman and hope that Trey McNutt turns a corner, I’m not sure anyone can say the depth at rotation is anything but poor. it’s going to take time to build that depth and right now the Cubs farm system just doens’t have it.

The organization has plenty of relievers, but what organization doesn’t?

As for position player depth, the Cubs have Brett Jackson who is at least the third best outfielder in the Cubs organization right now. Matt Szczur was added to the 40-man roster, but he’s a year or two away. If you look at the top prospect lists for the Cubs you see that a lot of these guys are aways away from making an impact.

The Cubs can fill some holes and create a stronger bench, but depth isn’t something that’s going to be a strenght for this organization for awhile. If a starter goes down you’re going to get the likes of Tony Campana and DJ LeMahieu filling spots on the bench.

Continue reading “What the Cubs have to consider at the Winter Meetings”

Checking up on the Cubs top prospects, part 2

Yesterday we looked at the Cubs prospects ranked 11-20 and today we’ll look at the top 10. You can read about how they were doing a month ago if you’d like.

10) Alberto Cabrera, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm that needs polish.

Cabrera was promoted to AAA Iowa because of injuries. He didn’t fare well in Tennessee and has done worse at Iowa. He’s struckout 44 and walked 38 in 61 innings while giving up 78 hits and 7 home runs. Batters have hit .324 against him at AAA. On the season he’s thrown 109.2 innings, allowed a million hits, walked 59 and struckout 78. Between AA and AAA, batters have hit .317 against him.

You’ve surely noticed a trend so far. Cubs pitching prospects no longer strike a lot of guys out, they have slightly better command, but not all that much better, and they’re easy to hit. Cabrera is just 22 so he’s got that going for him, but he’s going to have make significant improvements to be even a legitimate spot starter candidate in the future.

9) Austin Reed, RHP, Grade C+: Huge sleeper for 2011.

Unlike his brother Addison, Austin hasn’t taken to professional baseball with as much success. He was pretty good last year in limited innings in rookie ball, but has been less than impressive this year. In 39 innings at Boise he’s allowed 49 hits, walked 17 and struckout just 22. He does keep the ball on the ground and doesn’t turn 20 until the end of October so he’s got a long way to go yet. The lack of strikeouts is a major concern, but that appears to be an organizational flaw at this point.

Since I brought up Addison Reed, all he’s done is reach AAA in his first full professional season. He had college experience so he’s the older brother. Reed’s stats are ridiculous. In 90.2 innings he’s allowed just 53 hits. He’s struckout 134 batters and walked 17. If someone showed me these stats I’d say those were college stats. 134 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio!

8) Robinson Lopez, RHP, Grade C+: High-ceiling arm, needs refinement.

The Cubs acquired Lopez for Derrek Lee last season. He has a lot of potential, but so far that’s all it is. I’ll give you three guesses as to how difficult he is to hit, his command and his strikeouts. If you guess anything other than not difficult to hit, so-so command and poor strikeout rate you haven’t been reading along. He’s walked as many batters as he’s struckout (28) in 59.1 Low A innings. He’s allowed 71 hits, 7 of which left the yard.

In 211 professional innings, he’s allowed nearly a hit per inning (8.8), walked 3.9 per inning and hasn’t even struckout 6.3 batters per 9. Lopez just turned 20 and apparently has pretty decent stuff, but he’s not a top 10 prospect.

7) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B-. I expect this will be controversial but he really needs to get things going, and age-relative-to-league is just one factor among many.

I don’t know what else needs to be said about Josh Vitters at this point other than he’s somehow managed to walk less this seaosn than he did last year, which was actually a step up from previous seasons. Last year at AA he walked 13 times in 228 PA. This season it’s 15 in 366 PA.

If there’s anything to get excited about it’s that he doesn’t turn 22 until the end of the month. He’s still young and has been at AA for a full season now, but he has too many holes in his game. About 30% of his games played this year have been at 1st base so there’s little doubt that he’s going to have to make the switch full time at some point soon. As a first baseman, even his decent power isn’t enough to offset his horrible on-base skills. He’s a poor runner (7 CS, 4 SB this season, 18 SB, 13 CS in his career).

6) Reggie Golden, OF, Grade B-: Enormous potential but very raw.

One thing I wasn’t expecting to see with Golden, who doesn’t turn 20 until October, is the ability to take walks. His OBP this year at Boise is 100 points higher than his batting average. He’s taken 20 walks in 38 games, but he’s also struckout 41 times. His batting average is so low that his OBP is only .342. The legitimate power that he’s supposed to have hasn’t shown up yet. In 155 PA he only has 11 extra base hits (6 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR) so his slugging is below .400.

Some parts of his game have been disappointing so far, but the ability to draw walks has been impressive to me. I was not expecting that. He’s only 5-10, 210 pounds so I’m not sure how much power we can expect from him, but he apparently plays superb defense in RF. There’s reason to be optimistic with Golden, but also reason to be concerned.

Maybe someone in the top 10 will finally be having a good season.

5) Hayden Simpson, RHP, Grade B-: Could rank at the top next year if he does anything in the pros like he did in NCAA Division II.

After getting pounded in Low A, he was sent back to Rookie League where he’s continued to pitch poorly. I still get a laugh out Sickels’ comment about how good he could be if he was as good as he was in Division Fucking II.

Combined this year’s struckout 53, walked 36 and allowed 92 hits in 73 innings. Here’s what BA had to say about him when he was drafted last year:

Southern Arkansas coach Allen Gum found the most successful pitcher in school history literally right next door. Simpson, his next-door neighbor in Magnolia, Ark., has gone 35-2, 2.39 with 323 strikeouts in 271 innings in three seasons with the NCAA Division II Muleriders. Though he’s just 6 feet and 175 pounds, he has a strong lower half and a quick arm that delivers 91-93 mph fastballs that peak at 96. His fastball is fairly straight and he tends to pitch up in the zone, which could lead to difficulty with tougher competition. He has a pair of hard breaking pitches, an 82-83 mph slider and an 78-80 mph curve. He also has a changeup that he uses sparingly, and he commands his entire repertoire well. His velocity decreased a little toward the end of the season, and some scouts are wary of his size and the fact that he’s never ventured far from Magnolia. Nevertheless, his fastball could get him drafted as high as the fourth or fifth round.

I’m going to continue bolding that final sentence because it still boggles the mind that the Cubs drafted him in the 1st round. As shawndgoldman said at the time, even the average fantasy baseball player knows that if a player is going to be available later that you draft someone else.

4) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B: I still like him more than the numbers say I should.

His 119 strikeouts in 150+ innings last season didn’t drop him out of the top 5 for some reason, but surely 2011 will. In 104 innings, the Cbus 4th ranked prospect has allowed a hundred gazillion hits in 104 innings. Seriously, I’m pretty sure that’s what the 11.9 hits per 9 adds up to. He does have solid command as he’s walked only 3 per 9, but even his poor 6.8 K/9 rate last year has dropped to 5.6.

He turns 24 in October and will presumably be sent back to AAA next year. His numbers aren’t even good enough to be considered a decent relief prospect at this point.

Sooner or later someone in the top 10 will be having a good season. I swear.

3) Christopher Carpenter, RHP, Grade B: May end up in the pen, but he’s got plus stuff and I wouldn’t give up on him as a starter yet.

Let’s put it this way: the best Carpenter has been all season was in his 10 big league appearances. He threw 9.2 innings, allowed 12 hits, walked 7 and struckout 8. Between AA and AAA he’s thrown 41 innings, allowed 41 hits, 5 home runs, walked 26 and struckout just 34. In his minor league career he’s struckout just 7.7 per 9, walked slightly over 4 per 9 and allowed 8.3 hits per 9. Most of those innings have been as a starter so there’s reason to think he may be able to be a decent reliever, but his numbers this year in AA, AAA and MLB tell another story.

Now that we’re at the top ranked pitching prospect we’ll get good news.

2) Trey McNutt, RHP, Grade B+: Hard to believe this guy was a 32^nd round pick. . .he’s got great stuff.

With just a month left in the minor league season, McNutt has thrown only 62 innings. They haven’t been any good either. He’s allowed 79 hits walked 23 and struckout only 39. It wouldn’t be fair to not mention the blister issues McNutt had early in the season or the collision, but at the same time, those numbers are just bad. Since being promoted to AA at the end of last season, he’s struckout only 6 per 9. As a 32nd round pick you can’t complain, but he’s not a top 5 prospect. Not in any decent minor league system anyway.

1) Brett Jackson, OF, Grade B+: Love the broad base of skills.

Jackson’s batting lines haven’t been as pretty as they were in the past. Since drafted in the 1st round in 2009 Jackson had been good for about a .300/.400/.500 batting line. The on-base percentage is still more than 100 points higher than the average, but the average has dropped significantly. He’s been on fire the past 10 games and overall this year between AA and AAA he’s hit .255/.370/.459. In his 19 games at AAA he’s hit .250/.358/.515. League average OBP in the PCL is .360, but Jackson got off to a rough start.

Over his last 10 he’s hit .314/.405/.686. Strikeouts have been the issue with Jackson and this year is no different. In 86 games (379 PA) he’s struckout 101 times. In AAA he’s struckout in 33% of his plate appearances, which is way too high.

All things considered, Jackson has had a solid season. He’s probably dropped a bit from what we were thinking he could be entering the season, but he’s still a very good CF prospect.

Hey, at least 1 of the top 10 has dropped considerably. I don’t know if you’ve been keeping count at home, but of the 20 we’ve covered, only 4 have been halfway decent (Welington Castillo 20th, Austin Kirk 17th, DJ LeMahieu 12th and Brett Jackson 1st). Since I’ve been writing about the Cubs and their prospects, there hasn’t been a more disappointing season than this one.

Their pitching prospects don’t strike enough batters out and only have so-so command. Most of them are hit pretty hard. Only a few of the hitting prospects have any on-base skills and at least two of those who do have serious strikeout issues. It’s easily the worst the Cubs farm system has been since I started writing about the Cubs back in 2003.

Tim Wilken has been around for 5 years now and we have almost nothing to show for it. The prospects worth watching either can’t strike enough batters out or they strikeout too often. I can’t think of a single pitching prospect in the top 20 who you’d consider a strikeout pitcher at this point in their careers. It would be OK if they had pinpoint control and kept the ball on the ground, but that’s not the case with most of them. How bad does the system have to get before Tim Wilken is replaced? Whatever it is, I’m pretty sure we’re there.

Continue reading “Checking up on the Cubs top prospects, part 2”

Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 4

Over the last week we’ve looked at the top 20 Cubs prospects according to John Sickels and how they’re performing this season. We’ve also looked at 15 or 16 additional players worthy of some discussion for one reason or another. Many of the 2010 draft picks, especially the high school ones, have very little playing time to their name. Few of the 2011 draft picks have any playing time and less than 20 of the 50 have been signed.

I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may been wrong. The farm system does appear to be in better shape than I had thought.

The Cubs top prospect, Brett Jackson, is having another great season. Strikeouts are an issue, but he’s getting on base, which is what he’s going to be asked to do at the big league level as he’ll almost certainly be the leadoff hitter. Jackson has needed little to no time to adjust to new levels throughout his professional career and has shown the potential of being a very productive player.

Trey McNutt, the highest ranked pitching prospect entering the season, has suffered some injuries, but none of them arm-related. It hard to figure out too much when looking at his stats when you consider the blister problems as well as the performance after coming back from a collision. He’s not even thrown 50 innings yet.

Ryan Flaherty is hitting the ball exceptionally well. DJ LeMahieu has even done the same and was promoted to the big leagues to sit on the bench for awhile. Robert Whitenack emerged early this season as the breakout performer in the organization only to have his season cut short with elbow surgery.

Jeffrey Beliveau has continued to improve his control while also striking out a ton of batters. He’s very difficult to hit and even righties have struggled against him. He looks like a late-inning reliever for sure. Chris Rusin is in AAA now and has the best control in the organization. He’s not a top of the rotation starter, but if he continues to progress, he could provide some value at the backend of the rotation. Nicholas Struck is only 21 years old and already in AAA. He has more potential than Rusin and considering his age for the levels he’s played in, it’s difficult to estimate his true talent level going forward, but he’s more than held his own against older competition.

Austin Kirk has been ridiculously tough to hit and Matt Szczur has hit everything he’s seen. It seems clear the organization is in a better position than I initially thought.

While there are still no impact players, the system does have a number of players who could contribute some value in the near future.

I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may have been too kind previously. The farm system appears to be in worse shape than I had thought.

Brett Jackson’s strikeouts haven’t held him back thus far, but he’s going to have BABIP his way to a decent batting average at the big league level. He’ll walk plenty so his OBP will still be solid, but it could easily be league average or worse. He’s going to strikeout more at the big league level than he has so far, which is not a good sign. He’ll also walk less, have less power, his defense will be worse and there’s already discussion about whether or not he can remain in CF. A leadoff hitter, which is what the Cubs have him pegged as, who doesn’t get on base at an above average rate would be terrible for any offense. If he has to move to a corner, much of his value is gone. There are a lot of question marks with Jackson.

Trey McNutt has had a number of blister issues and a collision that has kept his inning total to less than 50 and those 50 have been unimpressive to just plain bad. His strikeouts declined after his late-season promotion last year and they’ve continued to decline even further. His current strikeout rate leaves one little reason to hope he’ll be anything more than a bullpen arm and maybe not even a good one at that. We already saw what a big decline in strikeouts did to Jay Jackson when he got to AAA.

While Ryan Flaherty continues to hit, he also continues to be passed over for other players like DJ LeMahieu. He’s without a position having played less than half his games at 2nd base. He’s old for his level and the only time he’s been challenged was at the beginning of the 2010 season and he failed miserably.

Beliveau has excellent strikeout numbers and a good walk rate. He’ll more than likely provide value to the Cubs in the future, but they already have Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall at the backend of their bullpen. Beliveau’s value will be limited. At 21, Nicholas Struck is already at AAA, but at 5-11, 185, endurance becomes an issue. Beyond that, he’s allowed nearly a hit per inning and struckout only 7.1 per 9. Solid numbers overall, but not a top of the rotation or even a middle of the rotation pitcher in the future.

Robert Whitenack emerged early as this season’s breakout pitcher, which kind of says enough as it is. Anyway, after his fantastic start, he went down with a torn elbow ligament and will miss a year. Chris Rusin has been solid, but again, he’s a backend of the rotation starter and that’s if he progresses as one would expect.

Matt Szczur has little to no power, but makes a lot of contact. He has decent on-base skills, but even if he progressed as one would expect, he’s no impact player and he’s years away from making any impact anyway.

Alberto Cabrera, ranked 10th by Sickels, has been bad. Number 9 prospect Austin Reed has given up more than a hit per inning at Boise. Number 8 prospect Robinson Lopez strikes out less than 6.5 per 9. Josh Vitters, ranked 7th, hasn’t got a chance in hell of being a Major League player. At number 5 is Hayden Simpson. After getting rocked at Peoria, he’s getting rocked in Rookie League. Jay Jackson was number 4. Enough said. Christopher Carpenter was number 3 and he’s now a reliever so yawn. We already talked about Trey McNutt and Brett Jackson.

Marquez Smith is number 11 and nobody even wanted him in the Rule 5 Draft. DJ LeMahieu is 12th. No power whatsoever. On-base skills are lacking. At 13th was Rafael Dolis and he’s now a reliever and only Ok considering he’s been at AA for awhile now. Brooks Raley is 15th and he strikes out fewer batters than Casey Coleman. Su-Min Jung isn’t any good.

If there weren’t a dozen or more players in the top 20 who have fallen flat on their faces this season, you could bet good money some of them would be out of the top 20. As it is, most probably remain in the top 20 because they’ve all sucked.

It’s true the organization has had some risers this season, but they’ve had more decline. Plus, even the ones who have risen have decent potential. None of them are impact players.

Tim Wilken has had 5+ years to do something with this organization and we get this?

Continue reading “Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 4”

Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 2

A few days ago we looked at Sickel’s Cubs prospects ranked 11-20 entering the season and how they’ve done so far. This time we’ll look at the top 10.

10) Alberto Cabrera, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm that needs polish.

Cabrera made 9 starts for AA Tennessee and then was promoted to Iowa. I’m pretty sure the only reason he was promoted was because of all the injuries the Cubs have suffered and the I-Cubs needed a starting pitcher. At AA he threw 48.2 innings and allowed 60 hits. He struckout only 34 and walked 21.

In AAA he’s made 7 starts and thrown 34.1 innings. He hasn’t had any better luck either. Batters hit .308 against him in AA and they’re approaching .400 in AAA (.372). He’s allowed 54 hits, struckout 26 and walked 23.

He doens’t turn 23 until October, but I’m having trouble understanding why he’s ranked so high. He strikeout 90 and walk 26 in 93 innings in High A last year, but overall (A+/AA) he threw 136 innings, allowed 149 hits, struckout 125 and walked 50. These aren’t exactly numbers that jump out at you. He’s not difficult to hit. In 2009 he allowed 94 hits in 96.1 innings in Low A Peoria. In 2008, at Peoria, he allowed 55 hits in 52 innings. He doesn’t miss bats either. Between those two seasons in Low A, Cabrera threw nearly 150 innings and struckout 110. He walked 84. His command improved last seaosn, but it appears to have been a fluke.

His tRA+ was 97 at AAA and below 75 so far in AAA.
Continue reading “Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 2”