jeff francouer – Obstructed View

Braves Q&A

Back when we were doing the advertising blitz for this site my Braves fan cousin offered to talk about the Braves for a bit when the Cubs eventually played them. He took time from selling all of his shit to move from Atlanta to Hawaii (the lucky bastard) to answer a few questions about the Braves, a team that I’ve barely paid attention to this year.

What happened to Jason Heyward this year?

There is much debate as to who the real Jason Heyward is. Everyone expected that Jason Heyward was the next face of the franchise when he had the hot start to 2010 (that role is now fully owned by Brian McCann). Last years poor 2nd half slump was written off to injuries. This year, everyone expected the same but they got the other same thing as last year…more injuries. He has been a real disappointment and there are signs that no one expects him to bounce back this year. He is looking more like Jeff Francouer every day. Its gotten so bad that recently, Freddi Gonzalez has been studying the tapes of Tony Larussa. Heyward has been relegated to platoon status with Jose “Georgie” Constanza…with the pitcher hitting 8 and Constanza 9 and the newly acquired Bourn 1st. Heyward hit a HR the other night and the next night, Constanza was back in there…there isnt a lot of confidence in Heyward if you take him out after HR (although, Constanza started blazing hot (well over .400 and is hitting .377 in 53 at bats).

In the end, Heyward is the hometown guy and he is one of a dying breed in baseball…the black baseball player. In a city such as Atlanta, they will give him every chance to be a superstar as he will put people in the seats both on his talent and his ethnic background. If this time next year, you are asking me the same question, then we can write off Heyward…if he doesnt get hurt next year…then he should be a serviceable OF that is slightly overrated (.270 85r 20HR 85rbi 10SB) nothing MVP worthy but plenty serviceable.

I’ve seen a lot of grumbling about Derek Lowe this year, but when I look at his numbers it looks like the main problem is probably Dan Uggla, as Lowe is still a ground ball machine.

Lowe has always baffled me….I never understood why they were so high on him and so reluctant to move him. I think in the end, its because he is a seasoned veteran and he does step it up in big time games. Over the course of the season he doesnt put up the numbers to warrant his paycheck. He does eat a lot of innings and can get roughed up and it doesnt go to his head. I’m sure that his role with the starting staff which for the most part is very young (Beachy, Hanson, Jurrjens) is to work to keep the young guys grounded. I do not think he deserves to be a starter in the playoffs and will be dissapointed if the braves do put him in the 3 man rotation above the 3 aforementioned and Hudson.

How is Dan Uggla being perceived by Braves fans? His hitting streak and HRs seem to be doing a lot to mask what’s been an overall lousy year.

You know, this is a pretty interesting question. There has not been the outcry that he isnt producing…sure people were complaining when he was at .173 33 games ago, but it was never a mob of torches and pitchforks. He hustles every day…he runs out every ground ball all the time (I Believe he has like 4 or 5 infield hits during his current streak). He was hitting the ball hard earlier in the season…just right at people and with no one on base when it did land safely somewhere. He has played great defense, he has never given up or shown frustration. He is also notorious 2nd half player and while this year is very extreme I think we have an all star for the 2nd half of the year and its exactly what the braves need. A big power bat.

One interesting thing is that while its amazing that Dan Uggla has gone from .173 to .232 this late in the season, and when you look at the back of the baseball card in a few years, you will see a line that reads .240 90 r35hr 90rbi for this year and think, that wasn’t too bad of a year, overall baseball hitting is way down. I just spend 20 minutes looking for it and couldnt find it, but there was an article written by Pat Doughrety (@RotoPat) about 2 months ago stating how .250 is the new .270. Hitting is way down in baseball across the board, and you see more guys than ever in the Carlos Pena range of .220-.230 .250 has always been the line of respectable hitting and at least for the near future, I think that line is down to .235 or so. (until they juice the ball again).

Can the Phillies be stopped by anyone? It’s nuts that the Braves have the second best record in the NL and are still 7.5 back of Philly.

No…not until the playoffs. I think both ATL and SF can take out the phillies…all 3 teams have great pitching and average hitting so its just a matter of who hits. If the giants can get philly in a best of 5 they can pull off the upset. If its braves phillies in best of 7, then braves need to hit the hell out of the ball for once in the post season. I think the trade for Bourn could be the steal of the season….he is exactly what they needed, a CF…a great glove…speed galore and a solid contact hitter…hes the perfect leadoff guy in an era of very few true leadoff batters.

If the braves can roll this lineup out in the playoffs and everyone is healthy and swinging the bats, then they have a real shot.
Bourn, Prado, Chipper, Uggla, McCann, Freeman, Heyward, Gonzalez, P

Braves chance for a World Series Title? 25%

He also included a pic taken at a 2003 Cubs-Braves playoff game, the last time he’s ever seen a Cubs fan happy (dying laughing). You can find more DDB pics at www.ween.net/ddb. I’m kind of surprised that Ryno hasn’t dug these up at some point.

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Mike Quade, You Are A Dumbass

It’s the bottom of the 8th inning on Saturday night and I had sat in Kaufmann Stadium and watched the Cubs and Royals play a very good game. It was well pitched. The umpires, at least from my perspective, made all the right calls. There were some nice plays on defense made by each team. Both teams put runners on, but the opposing pitcher was better than the hitters when it mattered.

To be quite honest, I was quite surprised to see these two teams play a game that actually resembled a Major League game. Prior to the game the Royals held a .5 game advantage on the Cubs for the 2nd pick of next year’s draft. Only the Astros have been worse than either of these teams. If we saw what would typically be a minor league game, it would not be the least bit surprising. It was, in fact, exactly what I expected to see this series. Just two very good minor league teams squaring off at the Major League level in a battle for the second worst record in baseball.

So it was refreshing to see a well played game, especially after last night’s debacle. Both teams lived up to their minor league hype on Friday as each team tried to best the other. In the end it was the Royals who proved to be more inept than the Cubs on Friday. But on Saturday, that was good baseball. That was good Major League Baseball.

Prior to the bottom of the 8th, my only complaint to that point was that I thought whoever the hell that AAA pitching coach is for the Cubs should have visited Carlos Zambrano in the 5th inning after he went 1-0 following the walk. A real pitching coach, say Larry Rothschild, would have ran out to the mound to give Z a breather and give him a moment to settle down. Perhaps it makes no difference. It probably doesn’t so it’s only a minor complaint. Can’t blame Zambrano’s ineffectiveness that inning on the pitching coach. That’s Z’s fault. Would have been nice to see a real pitching coach in the Cubs dugout who could have ran to the mound to talk about what they’re going to have for breakfast tomorrow morning. I don’t know. Not likely it made a bit of difference in the end, but it’s something Major League pitching coaches do.

Then came the bottom of the 8th. I was quite pleased with how Zambrano had battled all night. He didn’t have his best stuff, allowed some baserunners, but made pitches when he needed to. After allowing two runs the Cubs came right back with back to back home runs and Z goes out there in the 6th and 7th and has his best innings. Shut down innings.

I look into the bullpen and see a lefty throwing knowing Z’s night is done. Sweet. Good start for Big Z and now they turn it over to the back-end of the bullpen. It’s gotta be Sean Marshall. Tie game, bottom of the 8th, he’s your setup man, it’s obvious. That lefty in the bullpen is Sean Marshall. I didn’t even bother to take a second look because it had to be Sean Marshall. The possibility of another lefty being up never even entered my mind. I’m not joking. I’ve been watching this team since the early 80s and I can honestly say that I took a look into the bullpen, saw the lefty, looked away knowing for certain it was Sean Marshall. Had to be. It fucking had to be, because any other lefty up in the pen would have been flat out fucking retarded. Sean Marshall was up in the bullpen. Or so I thought.

Turns out the lefty is John Grabow. That’s bad enough, but it gets worse. Grabow easily gets Alex Gordon out. Nothing is easy for John Grabow, but trust me, getting Alex Gordon out on this night was easy for him. The Royals naturally pinch hit for Mitch Maier with Jeff Francouer. Speaking of this, is the first time in history that a player whose name had three consecutive vowels in a row was pinch hit for with a guy whose name also had three consecutive vowels? Probalby not, but those names always piss me off. I can never remember how to spell them.

Anyway, Francouer up and Mike Moustakas on deck. For those not paying attention, that’s a right-hander at bat and a left-hander on deck. There’s one out so you’re looking at the next two batters. One righty, one lefty. What do you do?

Well, you have a couple choices. First, you bring out a righty and have a lefty ready in the pen to face Mike Moustakas. Why? Because it doesn’t fucking matter if you have you have a lefty or right on the mound when Francouer comes up. Whoever is facing the next two batters is going to face one righty and one lefty. That’s right. There is no way around it. One righty (Francouer) and one lefty (Moustakas). It’s science.

If you bring in the righty, you have the platoon advantage vs. Francouer but the disadvantage vs. Moustakas. If you leave the lefty in you have the disadvantage vs Francouer and the advantage vs. Moustakas. If you don’t have a calculator or spreadsheet handy, that’s one platoon advantage and one platoon disadvantage. No. Matter. What.

The second option is to go with with the guy in the game or bring in the righty (Jeff Samardzija since he was up in the pen). As bad at baseball as John Grabow is, does anybody honestly believe that Jeff Samardzija is anywhere as close to as good as Grabow? Forget that shit though. Where the hell was Sean Marshall?

You got lucky with Gordon vs Grabow. If you want to do the lefty/righty/left thing, I’m OK with that even though I think it’s not necessary. But no matter what, if you take the lefty out you have another lefty up to replace the righty when Moustakas comes to bat. Under no circumstances do you ever take out any relief pitcher on the planet who is scheduled for one platoon advantage and disadvantage for Jeff Samardzija who is also going to have the same advantage/disadvantage as the lefty.

A well played game by both teams quickly became a game that was difficult to even watch. I don’t mind if players make mistakes. I don’t even mind if the manager occasionally makes a mistake, but this one is unaceptable. These decisions were some of the worst I’ve seen Quade make. The guy couldn’t even figure out that it didn’t matter if you brought a righty in that you were still going to face one righty and one lefty. That’s ridiculous.

I skimmed through the comments last night and I disagree about the Reed Johnson play at the plate. Gordon picked the ball up when Johnson had just rounded third. I send the runner every time in that situation unless it’s someone like Ramirez or Soto. Gordon has a strong arm, the throw wasn’t perfect, but he got to the catcher in time to make the play. It happens. I don’t want station to station baseball.

Off the top of my head last night I figured the WE for the Royals without sending the runners was probably 42 to 43 percent or so and after the out about 55%. Thereabouts. Too lazy to look it up. If I’m wrong, tell me. So that play cost the Cubs a -.125 chance of winning. Pretty big play, but not a huge one by any stretch of the imagination. If Reed scores it’s probably a WE of 36%. So he gained .065 if he scored and lost .125 if he didn’t. He have to be safe on that play two out of ever three times to make it worth it. You may disagree that he wasn’t going to be safe on that one, but in order to gain bases you absolutely must accept that you will occasionally make outs on the bases. That’s just how it works. I don’t know for sure if he’s safe two out of three times, but I’m sending him. I’m sending every runner who has rounded 3rd at the time he picks the ball up.

I hate outs on the bases as much as the next guy, but you’ve got two options: play station to station baseball or accept that sometimes you’re going to run into outs on the bases. I don’t know about you guys, but if I was a manager and I played a team that played station to station, I’m position my outfielders as deep as possible. I’m going to take away every extra base hit but the home run of course. In order to bring those outfielders in, you have to make some outs on the bases.

If you’re not making outs on the bases on those plays, the outfielders are playing too deep. That’s never going to happen because they will come in as far as they need to cut you down right at the breakeven point. The same is true with infield defense on a bunt. You play your 3rd baseman in as far as possible so that if the batter bunts you can get him out at the breakeven point. That way the batter doesn’t have an advantage when he bunts. On the other hand, you give him some advantage on swinging away. There’s a tradeoff and it’s not just on bunts, but running the bases too.

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Series Preview: Iowa Cubs of Chicago (30-44) vs Kansas City Royals (31-44)

For a while there it looked like the Royals might contend in the weak AL central. Much like the Cubs they got off to a decent enough start to the season and had a winning record as recently as May 14. Then they reeled off two five-game losing streaks in the span of two weeks and that was that. They come in to this series riding their fourth five-game losing streak of the season.

There is reason to hope for Royals fans though. Unlike the Cubs, who pretty much just have Starlin Castro, the Royals have promoted a number of their future stars to the club this year, including players like Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy. There’s a good chance we’ll see “short reliever” Tim Colllins, who the twittersphere is all over I guess. On the flip side, they also regularly play the likes of Melky Cabrera and saberist bete noire Jeff Francouer.

Team Overviews

Team stats with respective league ranking in parens:

	Cubs	Royals
wOBA	.316 (7th)	.322 (6th)
UBR	-6.2 (16th)	4.2 (4th)
UZR	-16 (15th)	1.9 (8th)
SP FIP	4.19 (14th)	4.74 (14th)
RP FIP	4.09 (14th)	4.34 (11th)

Hey, the Cubs bullpen isn’t last anymore! They’re on pace to move up two slots every series. By the end of the year the Cubs pen will be the -26th ranked pen in the majors!

Billy Butler and Alex Gordon have formed the main core of the Royals offense. Butler has put up a kind of strange line for a guy I seem to remember as a power hitter: .302/.404/.438. The Most Exciting Player in Baseball, Alcides Escobar, has been a black hole of suck in the lineup, batting .249/.285/.313 for a .270 wOBA over a run-killing 288 PAs. On the pitching side, only Felipe Paulino (remember him?) is the only starter to put up deent numbers, albeit over five starts. They’ve had nine pitchers start a game this season, which is just as many as the Cubs.

Pitching Matchups

Friday Friday: Ryan Dempster, RHP (5.46, 4.15, 3.38, 3.79) vs Bruce Chen, LHP (3.59, 4.95, 4.53, 4.68), 7:10 PM CT

Bruce Chen is still in baseball? What? If you look up “Replacement Level Swingman” in the dictionary you won’t find anything, but if you could then there would be a picture of Bruce Chen next to the entry. Of course, this means that you can chalk up a 7 IP, 6 K, 1 ER outing from Chen tonight.

Dempster had a hard time finding the plate in his last start, walking six batters in five and a third innings. Not having to face the patient Yankee lineup this time should give Dempster a break.

Saturday Saturday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.50, 3.85, 4.10, 3.75) vs Danny Duffy, LHP (5.03, 5.11, 4.50, 4.54), 6:10 PM CT

The Royals picked up Duffy as a third round pick in the 2007 draft, and after strong years in A and A+ ball in 2008 and 2009 he blew through AA and AAA to make the big leagues. I’m guessing he was hurt in 2010, or fangraphs has something up with its minor leagues database, as he only pitched 75 innings or so across 5 different teams after pitching 126.2 innings in 2009. ZiPS seems to think he’s being a little too rushed to the bigs, but the projection systems sometimes have a hard time playing catchup to guys like Duffy. Of course, they’re down on him this season for a reason, as his current 2011 numbers show.

Z turned a rocky first inning into a strong start against the White Sox. He went eight innings for the fourth time this season, striking out five, walking two, and getting eleven grounders. This could be one of the last few starts where we’ll see Z in a Cubs uniform, so MB is lucky to see it in person.

Sunday Sunday Sunday: Randy Wells, RHP (5.70, 5.43, 4.66, 4.03) vs Luke Hochevar, RHP (4.97, 4.75, 4.18, 4.28), 1:10 PM CT

Wells struggled at times against the Yankees, but he looked much more like the RAndy Wells we expect to see in that game. He got eleven ground balls, but still continues to walk batters at a much higher pace than his career numbers suggest. It will probably still be a while until the rust gets knocked off.

Hochevar was the Royals opening day starter, and the best thing you can say about him is that he’s probably a league averageish pitcher. Like (good) Wells, he doesn’t issue too many walks and keeps the ball on the ground. However, this season he’s seen a huge drop in his strikeout rate. To his credit, he’s averaging over six innings per start. He was knocked around by the D-Backs in his last start.

Prediction

These matchups work out pretty nicely for the Cubs, but they are on the road. I’ll still take the Cubs to win the series. But this Royals team has a much brighter future than the players that Cuey is going to trot out there this series.

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