joe maddon – Obstructed View

Journeymen of tomorrow: Cubs minor league recap (6.20.16)

Iowa fell behind 4-0 by the end of the 3rd inning, but tried to rally in the 7th and 8th. They fell to 31-36 on the season.

Dexter Fowler may or may not be headed to the DL depending on what the Cubs learn in the days to come. I would assume that would finally earn Matt Murton the call up to Chicago. He’s been out-performing John Andreoli by a long way could probably handle is own at the MLB level, especially against left-handed pitchers. Mark Zagunis is another possibility, but he just reached AAA.

John Andreoli was 0-3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. He scored a run. Munenori Kawasaki was 2-3 with a double, walk, RBI and a strikeout. The above-mentioned Matt Murton was 1-4 with an RBI, run scored and a strikeout. The middle of the order was silent in this one. The 4-5-6 hitters combined for 0-12. Juan Perez and pinch-hitter Mark Zagunis had the other hits. Zagunis tripled in his only at-bat.

Pierce Johnson was terrible. In 3.1 innings, he allowed 3 hits and 4 runs, though only 3 were earned. That’s barely worth mentioning though. He also walked 3, allowed a home run and as you’d expect, only struckout 1. The Cubs have a ton of depth at some spots offensively, but they don’t have much depth when it comes to pitching.

Speaking of perhaps the one spot where they probably have more depth than Joe Maddon realizes. And I can’t believe I’m even saying saying this, but Gerardo Concepcion has become a good reliever. He threw 1.2 innings in this one and allowed a hit and struckout a batter. I’ve talked about how good Concepcion has been several times and I realize his high walk rate is very concerning, but he’s got to be better than Clayton Richard.

Corey Black pitched the 8th and struckout a batter.

Tennessee Smokies 0 @ Jackson Generals 4

The Smokies dropped to 14 games below .500 at 28-42 with this weak 3-hit effort.

Victor Caratini was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts. Billy McKinney and David Bote were each 1-3. Chesny Young and Kelly Dugan each took a walk. That’s it for the offense.

Jen-Ho Tseng had a good start. He pitched 6 innings, allowed 6 hits and 2 runs. Only 1 run was earned. He walked 1 and struckout 3. Jose Rosario pitched the final 2 innings for the Smokies and allowed a hit, walked 2 and 2 runs allowed. He struckout 3.

Myrtle Beach Pelicans 3 @ Potomac Nationals 4

Potomac ran out to an early 3-0 start after 3 innings, but the Pelicans got 2 in the 5th and tied it in the 8th. They lost in 11 and are currently 36-34.

Gleyber Torres was 1-5 with 3 strikeouts. Ian Happ is on fire right now. He was 3-4 with a double, home run, walk, 2 RBI and a run scored. Jason Vosler was 2-4 with a double and a walk. Andrew Ely was 2-5 with a strikeout.

Jeremy Null threw 5 innings, allowed 9 hits and 3 runs. He broke the rules and struckout 7. He also allowed 2 home runs. Michael Wagner threw 4 innings of 1-hit baseball. He struckout 6. Tommy Thorpe picked up the loss by allowing 2 hits and a run in 1.1 innings. He walked 1 and struckout 1.

Lake County Captains 1 @ South Bend Cubs 3

Eloy Jimenez was 2-3 with 2 doubles and 2 RBI. Carlos Sepulveda was 1-4 with a double, RBI, run scored and 2 strikeouts. Josh Silver and Byrant Flete were each 1-3.

Kyle Miller threw only 83 pitches over 7 innings. He allowed just 4 hits and a run. He walked 2 and struckout 5. Miller began the year in the bullpen and has now made 3 starts. He’s been very good in these 3 starts, but his strikeout rate overall leaves a lot to be desired. It’s better than some of the prospects or minor leaguers covered here, but in 33 innings at South Bend, he struckout only 6 per 9 and that was primarily as a reliever.

Miller was a 19th round pick last June and is 22 year old.

Pedro Araujo picked up his 2nd save with 2 innings of work. He didn’t allow any hits, runs or walks and struckout 4.

Boise Hawks 6 @ Eugene Emeralds 4

The Emeralds lost their first game of the season, but still won their opening series against Boise. They had a 3-0 lead, but Boise scored 4 in the 6th and then scored 2 more in the 13th.

Wladimir Galindo was 2-4 with 2 solo home runs. He also struckout twice. D.J. Yeller Peguero was 2-5 with a home run, 2 RBI and a run scored. Wilson and Andruw Monasterio were each 2-6. Wilson struckout 3 times and Monasterio struckout once.

Jose Paulino was excellent in his first start of the season for Eugene. He threw 5 innings, allowed 5 hits, no runs and no walks. He struckout 5. Scott Frazier pitched 0.2 innings, allowed 2 hits and 2 walks. All 4 baserunners scored. He struckout a batter. Enrique De Los Rio picked up the loss with 2.1 innings of work. He allowed a hit, walked 2 and allowed 2 runs. Neither of the runs were earned and he struckout 4.

Cubs 5, Diamondbacks 3

OSS: Jason Hammel dominates on the mound and has the biggest hit of the game. The Cubs improve to 8-1 on this 10-game homestand and they have Jake Arrieta going tomorrow.

Three up:

Jason Hammel returned from his abbreviated start last time with 7 excellent innings. He only allowed 1 hit, though that hit was a 1st inning home run to Jake Lamb with a man on base. Hammel also singled up the middle in the 4th inning with 2 outs in a tie game. Two scored and the Cubs never lost the lead. Hammel has 7 RBI this season and according to Myles his OPS is the same as Jason Heyward's.
Jorge Soler hit a game tying ground rule double in the 4th inning. It was the second highest WPA play of the game (Hammel's go-ahead single was the top play).
Travis Wood came in for Trevor Cahill in the 8th inning after Pedro Strop had a difficult time retiring the Diamondbacks. Wood got Rickie Weeks, Jr. to lineout to Ben Zobrist. That could easily have given the Diamondbacks a 5-4 lead.

Three down

Pedro Strop gave up a leadoff home run in the 8th and then after Nick Ahmed grounded out and Michael Bourn struckout, Jean Segura lined a single to CF. Brandon Drury singled to LF and Joe Maddon had had enough of Strop for the day.
Trevor Cahill was called on to get Paul Goldschmidt after Strop left the game. This one goes to Cahill who walked Goldschmidt on 4 pitches and to Joe Maddon and all managers in baseball who refuse to use their closers when it's most important. There's no reason Hector Rondon should not have been brought in to face Goldy. It's why closers get paid a lot of money, but they're never used in this manner anymore. I guess 8-man bullpens are more important.
Addison Russell was 1-4 today, but he struckout a couple of times and looked terrible doing so. I had hoped his pinch hit PA yesterday was the start of something, but he's not going too well right now. He's really struggling.

Next up: Patrick Corbin vs. Jake Arrieta on Sunday at 1:20 CT. Arrieta goes for his 10th win of the season as the Cubs go for their 40th win of the season.

Cubs 2, Brewers 1 (5/18/16)

OSS: Against all odds, Travis Wood saves the day.

Three up:

Travis Wood Houdini-ed himself out of an impossible jam in the twelfth inning. He inherited two runners from Rondon, who was working in his second inning, then walked Santana to load the bases with nobody out. The Cubs brought an outfielder for the extra shot at the force at home but didn’t really need it – Wood miraculously induced three pop-ups/shallow flies to get out of the inning. He then drew a bases-loaded walk in the top of the next inning to give the Cubs the lead. It was that kind of game.
The Cubs only got to extras thanks to a ninth inning rally against Brewers closer Jeremy Jeffress. Addison Russell got the game-tying RBI on a fielder’s choice and the Cubs might have been able to close this out earlier if a few things had been different.
David Ross gunned down four baserunners in this game. Between this, the highly-correlated TOOTBLANs, the seemingly 14 double plays in this game, and the Cubs hitting into roughly 37 (by my count) line drive outs it was just a really strange game.

Three down

An absolutely brutal day on offense for Jason Heyward, who posted a whopping -.421 WPA. He got one hit, but struck out twice and hit into a double play. His other time on base might have been another double play if Gennett had been able to turn it, but he was caught stealing in one of many TOOTBLANs in general on the night for both teams.
I normally like that Joe is far more aggressive than most managers with using his bench but it burned him today, most notably in losing Rizzo from the ninth inning on and finding himself forced to use Tim Federowicz in a key at bat in the ninth. FedEx’s whiffs were so powerful that the wind knocked over my lawn chairs, 5 or 6 states away. At the very least Maddon should have let Ross get IBB’d (or hit for himself) and then used Montero to pinch hit for the pitcher in the ninth.
I can empathize Brewers fans, as that extra inning performance was vintage Cubes. No runs scored out of a bases loaded, no-out situation, followed by walking in the go-ahead run with a pitcher at the plate, followed by again failing to knock in the tying run from third with less than two outs is a triple gut punch.

Next game: Hammel v Guerra, 12:40 PM CT. These two guys might be the only ones awake in tomorrow’s starting lineups. I’m guessing we see FedEx since both Ross and Montero saw time behind the plate today.

The Gospel According to Joe (or How to Be a Cubs Fan in the Maddon Era)

It's the problem we always wanted to have, but now that it's here, the challenge of handling success has many Cubs fans and media members perplexed. As Cubs fans, we don't have a lot of experience in rational optimism or success when it comes to baseball, at least. (Some of us have managed to elude the perils of success in all of life's aspects, but that's another issue altogether. Or is it? . . .)

On more than a few occasions in the past few weeks, I've heard people wonder aloud about what we should consider a disappointment in 2016. Can we be satisfied with anything less than a World Series trophy? To find answers to this and all of life's great mysteries, may I point us all in the direction of a wellspring of wisdom from which Cubdom should freely and liberally drink: the words of Joe Maddon.

(Before I get too far into this, I want to clarify something. This all might come across as tongue-in-cheek, but I assure you, I write every word with the utmost sincerity.)

I know everyone who cheers for the Cubs appreciates having Joe Maddon as manager because of the winning culture he brings everywhere he goes. Winning baseball is the renovation to Wrigley Field for which I'm most thankful, but I have come to appreciate Maddon's contributions beyond the game of baseball. When I listen to Joe Maddon talk, I want to be a better person and to live a better life. And he makes me feel like it's more than just a distant possibility. Joe inspires and energizes at a level very few people can. I truly believe that even if he knew nothing about baseball, Maddon's enthusiasm and leadership would be worth 2.5 WAR. But I digress.

My point in all this is that Joe Maddon's wisdom about winning baseball also applies quite well to being a fan of the team he manages. Allow me to offer up a few examples:

The thing I want our guys to understand is the process is fearless. When you want to become outcome-oriented, that's where you can really run into some trouble. If we can just keep our guys focused on the process of the day, there's no fear in that. If we can think in those ways, in those terms, we're going to do pretty well.

This is the answer to all the questions about where the Cubs need to finish to avoid making 2016 a disappointment. In short, looking at the season with questions like that in mind is a terrible way to approach the season or any one game for that matter. I'll put it another way: I would consider 2016 a failure if the Cubs were to stray from what Maddon calls the "relentless execution of fundamentals and technique." But as long as the Cubs remain focus on playing good baseball, I'll continue to enjoy watching them do so. The wins and postseason glory will come, but at this point in the journey to October, I'll enjoy the process being executed by Maddon and co. Worrying about postseason outcomes at this point is pretty futile. That said . . .

It's all about setting your standards, your goals, high, because the problem, if you don't set them high, is you might actually hit your mark. We need to set our mark high, absolutely. I'm going to talk playoffs. I'm going to talk World Series. This year. I am. I promise you. And I'm going to believe it.

Maddon has said a lot about expectations being a positive word since the popular predictions for the Cubs have risen to more closely resemble the ones Joe had at his opening press conference. But the quote above is the one I will always remember. At the time, in that one should-have-been-frivolous press conference, Joe Maddon made a believer out of me. Do you remember what went through your head when he said that? I do. Something to the effect of, "Holy shit, there's hope. For the Cubs. For me. For the world and future generations."

So to the people expecting a World Series this year, I say (and I believe Joe does too) keep thinking that way. Make a championship your goal, make it your standard, make it the baseline expectation. Whatever. Just keep in mind that there's a difference between expecting to win at all and worrying about how disappointed you might be if you don't. If the Cubs do exactly what they did last year, I'll enjoy the hell out of it. I mean, come on, that's so fun to watch. Isn't that the point? Okay, yes, I hear you. Dual points, fun and championships.

Never permit the pressure to exceed the pleasure.

I'm sure we've all had this tattooed on our foreheads by now, so I won't belabor the point. I'll just say this: if it's important for the players to hold fast to that premise, players whose multi-million-dollar job it is to play an extremely difficult sport in the face of immense fan and media and internal pressure, it should be equal parts important and easy for us to keep it in mind as well. It's baseball. The fun exceeds the pain and disappointment. #thingsthatareeasytosayinfebruary

One round's on me. Shot and a beer.

Don't ever forget this, Cubs fans. Love it. Live it. Repeat.

Go Cubs.

Are the Cubs the favorites to sign David Price?

Common sense would indicate the Cubs would have significant interest in David Price this offseason. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball and he's a free agent. He won't cost the Cubs a draft pick since he was traded at midseason. He had a long working relationship with Cubs manager Joe Maddon. And the Cubs could really use another top of the rotation arm.

Lots of other people are saying it in a somewhat more official way. Buster Olney's recent column says it.

1. David Price (obviously): He is the best available starting pitcher, will probably get the most significant contract of the winter, and some rival evaluators consider the Cubs to be the heavy, heavy favorites to sign him.

Ken Rosenthal is saying it.

David Price: Two agents for free-agent starting pitchers predict that Price will sign with the Cubs. An executive who knows Price says that the Cubs are his first choice. It’s all talk until the contract is signed, particularly when the Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals and Red Sox all could be in the mix.

I'm guessing a lot of this at this point just falls into the common sense sort of thing I mentioned earlier. The Cubs will undoubtedly be talking with Price's agent assuming, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

How much is he going to cost? The short answer is that it's going to cost a lot. The Cubs have the money though. They don't have an unlimited stockpile like the Dodgers, but they've got the money.

Steamer is projecting 5.3 fWAR for Price in 2016. Let's assume the value of the win $8.5 million and increases by $0.5 million each year.

Year	Age	WAR
2016	30	5.3
2017	31	4.8
2018	32	4.3
2019	33	3.8
2020	34	3.3
2021	35	2.8
2022	36	2.3
2023	37	1.8

Over 6 years, we could reasonably project 24.3 wins. Over 7 it's 26.6 and over 8 it's 28.4. Including a discount for contracts longer than 3 years that typically occur, this is what we get.

6 years, $209.3 million
7 years, $233.1 million
8 years, $252.5 million

I'm going to guess that those numbers are a little high. Price will turn 38 years old in that 8th year so age quickly becomes a concern for him. I would guess it's closer to 6/180, 7/200, 8/220.

If the Cubs were to add Price, they could slip Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel down to the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Suddenly, what looked like somewhat of a weakness there in the postseason becomes quite a strength for this team with Price, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta also.

I'd hardly say the Cubs are the favorites at this point. They spent a lot of money on a starting pitcher last season and they may not be so willing to do the same thing this year. I doubt the Cubs want to have that much money tied up in two pitchers, but at the same time, it's a clear area of need for this team and there's nothing in the farm system that could step in and perform well enough right now. Pierce Johnson is the closest thing the Cubs have to a top pitching prospect and he's probably a year away.

Joe Maddon OK with bullpen game in the postseason

Yesterday Joe Maddon talked a bit about what the Cubs might do if they beat the Pirates on October 7th. Jon Lester would start Game 1 against the Cardinals and then what? Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks haven't exactly pitched great down the stretch. The Cubs have had a couple bullpen games recently due to double-headers that have turned out fairly well for the Cubs.

Travis Wood, Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill are all more than capable of taking the ball for a few innings. This would eliminate the need to for the starter to face the lineup a 3rd time. Hopefully, much of the lineup would not even see a second at-bat against the same pitcher.

Hammel hasn't been the same since returning from injury earlier this year. Going back to July 21st, Hammel's starts have not lasted particularly long. He's had the following number of innings in each start since then: 5, 3.2, 5.2, 4, 5.2, 3, 6.1, 5, 5, 6, 3.2, 5.

In those 58 innings, he's allowed 66 hits and 37 runs. He's walked 22 and struckout 60 while giving up 11 home runs. Opposing batters have hit .281/.346/.515.

This is a small sample, but I can see where Joe is coming from.

Kyle Hendricks hasn't fared a whole lot better since the All Star break. He's been a bit more consistent in terms of innings pitched. He's lasted at least 5 innings in all but 3 starts this year (April 12, August 14 and September 17). The results haven't been a whole lot better lately though.

Since the break he's thrown 63 innings, allowed 65 hits and 8 home runs. He's struckout 63 while walking 24 and hitting 8 batters. Opposing batters have hit .264/.337/.431. If the Cubs 3rd starter is being chosen based on performance late in the season, it should be Kyle Hendricks.

I'd still take Jason Hammel as I think the entirety of this season, as well as the previous season would indicate he's a better pitcher than Hendricks. If you're going to go with a bullpen day, it ought to be considered that these two pitchers combine in one of them. You could have one or the other start and then the other one relieve them hoping to get through 6 or 7 innings total. The other bullpen game could be the reverse of this or you could use any combination of these two, Travis Wood, Trevor Cahill and Clayton Richard.

Personally, I'd probably go with Jason Hammel in that potential Game 2 and Kyle Hendricks in Game 4.

First, let's just get in the playoffs and then beat Pittsburgh.