Tag: joe mather

Dale Sveum tries to compliment someone

He's [Brian Bogusevic] been the Joe Mather of camp so far — Dale Sveum

I'm pretty sure Dale Sveum meant this as a compliment, but saying someone is the Joe Mather of anything is kind of the opposite. I'll just repost what I already did about Mather.

Joe Mather was the worst player in baseball last year. Baseball Reference only thought he was the 5th worst player in baseball.

In four seasons in the big leagues, Joe Mather has been a replacement level player or better only once according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. That was in 2008.

I'm confused because a few weeks ago Dale Sveum said that Brent Lillibridge could be the Joe Mather of spring training.

Last year Joe Mather, this year Brent Lillibridge?

brent-lillibridgeLast season Joe Mather was signed to a minor league contract and then made the team. Joe Mather was not any good. Not before he signed with the Cubs and especially not with the Cubs. Despite this, he still had nearly 250 plate appearances.

Joe Mather was the worst player in baseball last year. Baseball Reference only thought he was the 5th worst player in baseball.

In four seasons in the big leagues, Joe Mather has been a replacement level player or better only once according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. That was in 2008.

While Brent Lillibridge won't make anyone mistake him for a good player, he's no Joe Mather. Then again, according to Baseball Reference, Brent Lillibridge has been below replacement in 2008, 2009, 2010 and at each stop (3 of them) in 2012.

However, in 2011 he was actually valuable. He wasn't just not bad. He was kind of good in 216 plate appearances with the White Sox. He hit .258/.340/.505 (.365 wOBA, 125 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR, 1.7 rWAR, 1.4 WARP).

He played 59 games in the outfield. Most of those (43) were in RF. He played 11 in CF and 9 in LF. He also played 22 games at 1st and 6 at 2nd base. Last season he played the most in the oufield and then at 1st and 3rd base. He can play anywhere.

Like Joe Mather.

Brent Lillibridge probably has better odds than not of making the team in what we'll now call the Joe Mather roster spot.

Give Cubs manager Dale Sveum an assist in convincing Brent Lillibridge to sign with the team.

"I like to get a feel for the manager, especially in a situation like this," said Lillibridge, a non-roster invitee. "I wanted to just talk baseball. [Sveum] really sold me on so many different parts of it and was real honest with me. That's what you want from the manager and the whole organization."

Now, his wife is already scouting for a place to rent in Chicago. They know the area. He played 3 1/2 seasons with the White Sox, then was traded twice last year — once to the Red Sox and again to the Indians.

He could be the utility player the Cubs need. Although Anthony Rizzo will be the main first baseman, he will need a day off now and then. Who will back him up? Sveum said catchers Welington Castillo and Dioner Navarro will get some playing time at first in Spring Training just in case, but Lillibridge could be the guy. It helps that he has played outfield and shortstop as well.

"I'm not going to lie to you, it gives you a huge edge in the National League," Sveum said of Lillibridge's versatility. "He's got some sock in his bat for a guy who looks like he's 150 pounds soaking wet."

In 2011, Lillibridge hit 13 home runs in 97 games, and made 22 starts at first for the White Sox when Paul Konerko was hurt and Adam Dunn was struggling.

"I still have my [first-base] glove up there just in case," he said. "Unless I stand on the base, I'm quite small over there at first base. I just want a bat in my hands. If I get a chance to swing, I'm excited. I want to help as much as possible."

There's not much reason to think that Lillibridge can hit as well as he did in 2011. His miinor league numbers don't indicate it and his numbers at the MLB level are far worse than he did then. He's not likely to be as bad as Joe Mather, but he's not likely to be on many fantasy teams unless you're playing in the new one GBTS wants to set up.

Bimillenial Facepalm – 11.2.1

Cubs "losing" a bunch of players to free agency/waivers

Team MVP Shawn Camp was the only officially official free agent on the roster, but a few other players have opted for free agency after being kicked off the Cubs 40-man roster. Apparently they don't realize that "cut from the Cubs roster" is not going to be a net positive for them in future negotiations. 

So far, the team has "lost" the following players to free agency/other organizations

As Aisley pointed out, given Mather's -1.5 fWAR last year he's probably going to have to pay some team $15m to play for them next year (laughing)

Brenly Replacement Search Continues

Dan Plesac has joined Eric Karros as a candidate for the position. Please, no Plesac. I'm really hoping to hear that Doug Glanville is actually being considered, rather than just being wishcast by various fans. 

Thoyer Conference call with season ticket holders

Brett has a paraphrased transcript over at Bleacher Nation. Nothing too earth-shattering there. They admit that they inherited some really shitty pitching depth and mentioned that they're not planning to bullpen Arodys Vizcaino, which is great news. They also said they're not interested in doing any deals like the Cubs did with Carlos Pena that defers a huge chunk of money. But there's no real reason for them to do that right now anyway because they have so little payroll.

Javier Baez Update

Baez broke the tip of his left thumb, but it was a non-displaced fracture so it sounds like it's relatively not a big deal. It will end his AFL season, however. Logan Watkins was given his spot for the rest of the league's short season.

 

Cubs float a balloon about bringing back Ryan Dempster

In that same article, Carrie Muskat mentioned that Hoyer has been in contact with Dempster's agent. Hoyer was quick to down-play this, and said it was more of a "I bumped into him" kind of situation. Though it's hard to accidentally bump into someone when you pick up your phone and call them. Maybe he and Demp's agent were just discussing candlesticks as wedding gifts for a mutual friend of theirs.

Vague trade rumor of the moment

Bruce Levine mentioned last week that the salary-dumping Marlins have approached the Cubs about trading Josh Johnson. If (almost) all he costs is money, it's something I think that Thoyer would be interested in. He turns 29 in January, but has surprisingly little mileage on his arm. Of course, that's due to an injury or two…

The Cubs should strike while the iron is hot here, because if the Marlins secure the funds for a new ballpark they might keep Johnson and go on another spending spree.

(That's probably a top ten all-time Onion article)

Additional vague trade rumor of the moment

The Cubs are interested in Dan Haren, and according to Heyman they have been involved in "talks". The Angels have to decide today if they're going to pick up his option. I would be shocked if a deal gets done here though. The Angels don't have a ton of leverage.

Minor league coaching hires

The Cubs have hired Anthony Iapoce as the new minor league hitting coordinator. He was previously an instructor in the Blue Jays system, and a career minor leaguer with the Brewers and Marlins before that. The Cubs also grabbed Vandy pitching coach Derek Johnson as the new minor league pitching coordinator. Vandy went to the College World Series in 2011, and eight of their pitchers were drafted (two in the first round), and he also worked with David Price before he was drafted.

Is there a Cubs game today?

No.

Off-topic comments thread I recently enjoyed

There was much discussion of board and role-playing games in the comments yesterday, as well as arguments for and against plastic cutting boards. Needless to say, it's been our busiest day in weeks here at OV. The 2013 Cubs, everyone!

Roster Reshuffling update

The Cubs have transacted half a zillion minor moves in the last week. We'll take a page from Phil Rogers and use the +/- system, because it actually means something in this context (i.e., how many roster spots are open).

Outrighted to Iowa (i.e., off the 40-man)

Claimed off Waivers (by another team)

Free Agents

  • RP Manny Corpas (refused minor league assignment)
  • MVP Shawn Camp

Added

Players stashed on the 60-Day DL

That's a net -7 for the Cubs 40-man roster, though Stewart may just be released if they don't think that they want to re-sign him. They'll have to add a few players to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, though given the state of the Cubs system I can't imagine it would be that many. Most of the Cubs guys that are worth stealing are already on (Lake, Sczczcur, Vizcaino, Soler), and the only players I can think of off the top of my head that might be added are Christian Villanueva (3B from the Dempster trade) and maybe the shadow of Trey McNutt. It also sounds like RP Marcelo Cerrano, acquired in the Jeff Baker deal, should be elgible. Most of the Cubs top players are too far down in the system and shouldn't have enough service time to qualify for rule 5. Even if the Cubs do add more minor leaguers and/or FAs, the likes of Casey Coleman, Mike Beliveau, and Brooks Raley aren't going to be tough drops from this roster. 

Also of note is that Randy Wells (who was outrighted back in June following an injury) won't be finding his way back on the roster, as he elected minor league free agency.

 

Season in review: David DeJesus

I was looking through our media library, and it looks like the only pictures we have of DeJesus in the system are of him in a Royals uniform, his wife, and his ridiculous truck. That's pretty much summed up his year as a player. He didn't do anything in particular to raise anyone's ire, but never really distinguished himself either.

Here are DeJesus's numbers for the year, along with his projection going into the year

  PA H HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG WOBA oWAR
Projected 523 126 10 45 80 .267 .339 .431 .326 0.9
Actual 582 133 9 61 89 .263 .350 .403 .332 2.4 (F) / 1.9 (B)

DeJesus did distinguish himself in one way: he had the most walks on the team with 61. That's 17 away from the Cubs next best walker….Alfonso Soriano. That pretty much sums up the Cubs offense this year. Alfonso Soriano drew the second most walks. Soriano.

The eyeball test said he didn't embarass himself out there in RF this year, and I would have guessed that he was average to above average. The advanced metrics disagree (SSS applies, as usual). DRS had him at -4, UZR had him at -4.9, and what ever B-Ref is using now had him at -11 in RF. He was only -1 in baserunning, so that should be solidly above average for a Cubs player.

DeJesus started off the season with a cold bat, hitting only four extra-base hits (all doubles) in the month of April. There was nothing wrong with his eyes though, as he still posted a .350 OBP despite a .250 AVG. His walk rate for the whole year was 10.5%, and he never strayed much more than a percentage point in either direction in every month of the season.

DeJesus's two best stretches of the season were the month of May, in which he hit four triples, and mid-August, in which he hit four homers in eight days. His best games by wRC+ (excluding pinch hitting appearances) were his two-homer game on 8/15 against the Astros, a five RBI day in Miller Park on 5/11, and a 5/4 game in Wrigley against the Dodgers in which he was a single short of the cycle. In terms of WPA, his best game was the aformention Brewers game, and his worst game was in the opening game of the Cubs first series with the Brewers on 4/9. DeJesus went 1-5 with three strikeouts and a TOOTBLAN, 'good' for a -0.25 WPA.

If you're looking for room to add someone in the Cubs outfield next year, DeJesus had a .225 wOBA in 115 PAs vs LHP this year. Small sample sizes, regression, etc. applies, but he might be a platoon player at this stage in his career. A Soriano DeJesus platoon would probably be pretty productive but would never happen. Too bad aside from Soriano pretty much everyone else (Brett Jackson, Tony Campana, Bryan LaHair) is left-handed. That is, except for Joe Mather.

The Top 20 Cubs performances in a 2012 game

I was curious which players had the best games in 2012 for this shitty team we follow. I used Win Probability Added (WPA) from Baseball Reference to compile the list. There's no reason to write more of an introduction than that so here they are.

20. Travis Wood, .395 WPA

Despite Wood's up and down season, he ended up having an OK year and this is only the first of three times he'll appear on this list. In this game Wood threw 7 innings and didn't allow a run in a 6-1 Cubs victory over the Mets on June 25.

19. David DeJesus, .396 WPA

On September 8th the Cubs beat the Pirates 4-3 and DeJesus drove in the tying run in the 8th. He went 2-4 with a walk overall.

18. Travis Wood, .411 WPA

On July 1st the Cubs blanked the mighty Astros behind 7 scoreless innings from Wood. He walked noboby and struckout 4.

17. Anthony Rizzo, .413 WPA

The Pirates return to mediocrity or worse had already hit by the time September 16th rolled around, but hte Cubs came back from a 6-1 score to beat them 13-9. Rizzo was 3-5 with 6 RBI. He hit 2 home runs and a double. Surprisingly, this is the only appearance for him on this list.

16. Travis Wood, .425 WPA

Travis Wood's 2 best games cames agains the Astros. This one was on September 12th. He threw 7.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and a run as the Cubs won 5-1. Wood had the 5th, 6th and 7th highest single game WPA for a Cubs pitcher this past season.

15. Paul Maholm, .430 WPA

On May 9th Maholm bettered Tim Hudson as the Cubs beat the team he'd later play for. Maholm threw 7 innings, allowed 3 hits and no runs. He walked 3 and struckout 3.

14. Alfonso Soriano, .432 WPA

Soriano hit a 2-run home run in the 6th inning to give the Cubs an 8-7 lead on May 28th. They'd win 11-7 and Soriano went 3-4.

13. Darwin Barney, .434 WPA

In one of the very few Cubs games that actually made me excited enough to care about Cubs baseball, Barney hit a game-tying 2-runhome run in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs against the Cardinals on September 21st. It had 2 of the better performances by a Cub this year. We'll get to the other one later.

12. Ryan Dempster, .445 WPA

I guess I haven't been keeping track because this seems like the first game on the list in which the Cubs lost. On May 3rd the Cubs took a 3-0 lead into the 9th inning behind Dempster's great start. Carlos Marmol didn't record an out before the score was tied and Rafael Dolis lost it in the 10th.

11. Alfonso Soriano, .448 WPA

Although Soriano was homerless in April, he did go 3-5 on April 24th. The final of those hits was a walk-off single in the 10th inning against the Cardinals.

10. Bryan LaHair, .449 WPA

Soriano's walk-off hit was made possible by LaHair's game-tying home run in the 9th inning. LaHair was 2-4 with a walk and a home run on the day.

9. Alfonso Soriano. .464 WPA

On June 8th against the Twins, Soriano hit a game-tying home run in the 8th inning. He went 3-5 on the day, but the Cubs lost in the 10th.

8. Ryan Dempster, .506 WPA

On Opening Day the Cubs hosted the Nationals and Dempster threw 7.2 innings, allowed only 2 hits, a run, walked 3 and struckout 10. The Cubs lost 2-1 and Stephen Strasburg who would later be shut down for good because the Nationals were liking their 2012 season too much.

7. Alfonso Soriano, .512 WPA

The Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 8-1 on July 13th thanks to Soriano's 4-4 day with 2 home runs. Not too surprisingly, Soriano appeared on this list more times than any other player though 7th was the highest.

6. Bryan LaHair, .522 WPA

In a June 7th loss in Milwaukee, LaHair hit a game-tying pinch hit home run in the 8th inning. The Cubs would lose 4-3 in the 10th.

5. David DeJesus, .532 WPA

In the game that Barney hit the game-tying home run in the 9th, DeJesus had the walk-off single scoring Brett Jackson in the 10th. DeJesus was 4-6 and had 1 RBI.

4. Darwin Barney, .545 WPA

Barney went 2-3 with a couple walks on May 30th when the Cubs beat the Padres 8-7. Starlin Castro tied the game in the 8th and Barney hit a walk-off home run in the 9th.

3. Jeff Samardzija, .600 WPA

Samardzija's 8 inning, 1 hit, 0 run, 1 BB and 5 K performance on July 23 in Pittsburgh was the single best performance by a Cubs pitcher all season. The teams combined for 6 hits and 2 runs, but the Cubs squeaked away with a win by having only 4 hits. One of the most boring games of the year had one of the best starts of the season. Funny how that works out.

2. David DeJesus, .627 WPA

The Cubs lost 8-7 in 13 innings to the Brewers, but DeJesus was 2-4 with 5 RBI. DeJesus didn't even start the game either. The Cubs trailed 1-0 in the 7th when DeJesus came to bat with the bases loaded. His grand slam gave the Cubs a big lead late in Milwaukee, but Cubs bullpen. Down 1 in the 9th, DeJesus tripled home Ian Stewart.

Joe Mather: better than Josh Vitters
1. Joe Mather, .755 WPA

If you can't laugh that Joe fucking Mather had the best game of any Cubs player all season, you have no sense of humor. One of the worst players in all of baseball in 2012 actually managed to have the best game of any Cub in their entire shitty season. I don't know about the rest of you, but that makes me laugh. I've been laughing about it since I decided to write this article. If yiou're wondering why he's here, he had a 2-run single in the bottom of the 9th against the Cardinals driving in the tying and winning runs with 2 outs in the game. Mather was 2-3 with a walk.

The worst Cubs of 2012

In a season that has mostly sucked it seems appropriate to pay tribute to those who helped them suck even more than they would have otherwise. I haven't looked this over so I'm doing the work as I write along. We'll start with the position players and if I feel like I'll do one for the pitchers tomorrow.

Joe Mather has had a spectacular season. His .210/.257/.326 batting line is good for a .255 wOBA. Thanks to -9 UZR and below average baserunner he's been worth -1.5 fWAR and has had only 242 plate appearances. Mathers has an even more impressive -2.0 rWAR though BPro's WARP has him at a measly -0.9.

Josh Vitters career is off to a fabulous start. It's been so good the Cubs are likely to shut it down for good. Yes, we're back to that. Vitters has opposite-of-hit .113/.171/.196 and that's good for a wOBA of .170. His fWAR is -1.4. Consider this, Mather has had 242 plate appearances and has been worth -1.5 fWAR. Vitters has 105 PA and has been worth -1.4.Although Mather has been horrible at the plate, his wRC+ is a solid 57 points higher than that of Josh Vitters (-5). Josh's rWAR is -1.3 and his WARP is a team worst -1.4. Mike Trout is 11.7 rWAJV.

Although he only played in 13 games for the Cubs, Marlon Byrd has the 3rd worst fWAR at -0.8. His rWAR is 4th worst at -0.4 and his WARP is 5th worst at -0.5.

Then there's Steve Clevenger who can't even be close to replacement even though he has the advantage of being a catcher. His fWAR is -0.7, rWAR -1.0 and his WARP is -1.3.

Honorable mention: Blake. The Cubs would have been nearly a win better if they didn't have any player named Blake. Blake Lalli and Blake DeWitt combined had -.8 fWAR, -.6 rWAR and -.4 WARP in 46 plate appearances.

The average of the 3 WAR's barely gives Joe Mather (-1.5 WAR) the lead over Josh Vitters  (-1.4). It's actually -1.46 for Mather and -1.43 for Vitters so these next 4 games are critical. Then again, Mather has more than twice as many PA as Vitters so it's really not at all close. If Vitters had the playing time that Mather has, he might have -3.3 WAR.

The Cubs probably won’t be taking many walks for some time

The Cubs 6.5% walk rate prior to last night's games was the lowest in baseball (league average 8.1%). The following Cubs with 150 PA or more are or were above league average: Geovany Soto (9.6%), Luis Valbuena (9.8%), Ian Stewart (10.4%), David DeJesus (10.6%) and Bryan LaHair (11.2%).

One of those players is now with the Texas  Rangers. Another is done for the season and will probably be non-tendered when the season ends. That leaves Valbuena, DeJesus and LaHair. Valbuena isn't very good. DeJesus is a solid MLB player, but not part of a Cubs rebuilding plan. Bryan LaHair is playing out of position and also not going to be a part of the Cubs rebuilding process.

The following players are or were below average (150 or more PA): Alfonso Soriano (6.1%), Joe Mather (5.9%), Reed Johnson (5.5%), Tony Campana $5.2%), Darwin Barney (4.8%), Anthony Rizzo (4.7%) and Starlin Castro (4.1%). Soriano is old, Johnson is gone, Mather isn't very good, Campana might have value off the bench. That leaves Barney, Rizzo and Castro. All three of them figure to be a part of a Cubs future and they're the three worst on the team at taking walks.

Rizzo and Castro are young and should improve some. Barney just doesn't have much power so his walk rate will always remain low. Rizzo's ZIPS projection is for an 8.4% walk rate so that's better than average. It was just 8.1% at AAA this year so I'm skeptical it's going to be that high moving forward. Castro is just who he is. He's a free swinger who isn't going to walk much.

Two of the three guys the Cubs are hoping to rebuild around aren't especially skilled at getting on base via the walk. Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters are two young players the Cubs are hoping will join the other three. Vitters has never been known as a guy who likes to take pitches. It's been said that Vitters has been more of a contact hitter, but he was on pace to strikeout more than 100 times at AAA and his ZiPS projection at this point is a 16.0% strikeout rate. That's more than 100 times per full season. His walk rate projected to be 4.0%, which is the lowest of the group. Even Darwin Barney is at 4.6%.

Brett Jackson is going to strikeout a lot, but ZiPS projects he'll walk in 10.4% of his plate appearances.

The Cubs future has Vitters (4.0%), Barney (4.6%) and Castro (5.3%) who are projected among the last patient hitters at this point. Vitters is in the bottom 5%, Barney the bottom 10% and Castro the bottom 20%. Rizzo is average and Jackson above average.

The Cubs best prospect in the minor leagues is Javier Baez and his career walk rate is 4.0%. We're talking about a small sample with him so far, but he hasn't been known as the patient type either.

Either these guys have to get better at taking walks or the Cubs need to fill in around them with guys who can. Walks aren't everything, but they are an important part of offense.

Revisiting the Cubs offseason transactions

Since the Cubs changed management this past offseason I thought it might be fun to look back at the transactions and see how they've turned out so far. Keep in mind these are a final analysis. There's still much time left for some of these deals to look different than they currently do. I considered breaking this into parts, but decided to post it at once instead. 

NOVEMBER

► November 30, 2011: the Cubs signed David DeJesus

Contract: 2-year, $10 million. The pact pays DeJesus $4.25 million each in 2012 and 2013. There is a $6.5 million option for 2014 or a $1.5 million buyout. 

At the time: DeJesus was worth $15.2 million over 2 years using CAIRO, Bill James and Oliver projections (as well as an increase to them due to him switching leagues). This was prior to any projection for him as a Cub. The PECOTA projection had him worth 1.8 WARP in 2012 and 1.1 WARP in 2013 so it closely matches our early estimate. Picking up the option was probably not going to happen unless DeJesus exceeded expectations.

Early analysis: DeJesus was going to help improve the Cubs defense and baserunning, which had been horrible for some time. He was a solid bat coming off a down season so there was even a reason to think he might actually exceed expectations. Considering the cost, there was really nothing to dislike about the contract.

Performance: He's played in 96 games and about one-third of them have come in CF. He's hit .262/.352/.378. His .320 wOBA comes out to a 95 wRC+, which is the exact same as it was in 2011. UZR thinks he's been a below average fielder (-4) and his UBR only slightly better than average on the bases (0.4). His DRS is -4 in CF and 0 in RF so the two metrics are in agreement about his defense (FRAA has him at -2.9 also).

Overall he's been worth .7 fWAR, .4 rWAR and .2 WARP (Prospectus). Average them if you wish and you get .4. PECOTA projects another .5 WARP the rest of the way, which would give him .7 WARP on the season. We should probably expect by the end of the season he'll be just above 1 WAR, which makes him worth the money he was paid in 2012 and not likely worth the additional $5.75 million he's owed. Things could change by this time next year, but for now this hasn't been a very good deal for the Cubs. 

DECEMBER

► December 8, 2011: Cubs trade Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu for Casey Weathers and Ian Stewart

Contracts:  Colvin could be arbitration eligible after this season, but is currently making about league minimum. DJ LeMahieu would be under club control for 6 years. Stewart was 2nd year arbitration eligible and had already agreed to a 1-year, $2.2 million contract. Casey Weathers had no MLB service time. 

At the time: The trade included 3 picks drafted in the 1st round. The two the Cubs acquired were top 10 picks and Colvin was selected 13th overall. LeMahieu was picked in the 2nd round. 

Early Analysis:  I don't remember having much to say about this trade. I know it wasn't a great trade and it wasn't a bad trade at the time. It was just OK. I think Baseball Prospectus said at the time that there were no winners except for the players who get to move to new teams. The Cubs probably got a bat that was a safer bet to produce, but it came at a higher price. 

Performance: Ian Stewart has hit .201/.292/.335 (.265 wOBA, 58 wRC+) and is done for the season. Both DRS and UZR agree he's a slightly better than average fielder, which is a huge upgrade from Aramis Ramirez. However, Ramirez more than made up for his defensive issues and Stewart has not come close. His FWAR is 0.0, rWAR is -0.1 and WARP is -0.7 (average of -0.2). Considering the salary, the Cubs haven't come close to getting what they've paid for and he's now someone who is likely to be non-tendered. 

Casey Weathers spent much of the season injured and overall he's in AA at the age of 27. He's thrown 28.2 innings and has an ERA of 5.97 and an FIP approaching 7. The guy walks everybody on the planet. You could face Weathers and you'd be 0-0 with a walk. Get this, Weathers has a really good strikeout rate, but his walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate. Hard to believe.

DJ Lemanieu has had a couple stints with the Rockies this season and it hasn't gone well in 31 games. He was league average at AAA, which doesn't say a whole lot.

Tyler Colvin has once again found his power stroke. In 258 PA he's batting .282/.318/.560 with a .367 wOBA, which is good for a 121 wRC+. He's played primarily in RF, but has also logged a lot of innings in CF, LF and 1B. The defensive metrics are in agreement that he's been below average. FRAA is the highest for him and it's -0.1. He's been worth 1.3 fWAR, 0.6 WARP and 0.8 rWAR (average 0.9). He'll surely regress some (ZiPS has him at .338 wOBA the rest of the way compared to .303 for Stewart). 

This is a trade the Cubs would like to have a do over on. It's not one of those trades they'll regret forever. Tyler Colvin has proven he belongs on an MLB roster although he may not be an everyday starter. Factoring in the salary you'd obviously prefer the left handed hitting outfielder who is working at league minimum to someone like Stewart. Add in the fact that Lemahieu might actually provide some depth to an organization at some point and the secondary players involved in the trade make this an obvious win for the Rockies. Not a huge win, but a win.

This trade took place on the final day of the Winter Meetings (Rule 5 Draft). The Cubs also took Lendy Castillo from some organization who probably doesn't regret losing him one damn bit. 

► December 12, 2011: Cubs sign Joe Mather

Contract: He's not yet arbitration eligible. He entered the season with just over 1 year of service time and won't be eligible for arbitration until 2014. 

At the time: Mather was signed along with 9 other players over a 3 week span in December for the purpose of filling out their spring training roster. Even if he managed to make the team he wasn't expected to provide much of anything.

Early Analysis: There was none. It was a transaction that most people though was irrelevant along with the many others they signed. 

Performance: Mather has hit .221/.273/.356. His wOBA is .273 and his wRC+ is 63. He's played all around the field, but primarily at CF and 3B. He's chipped in 51 innings in LF, 7 in RF and all of 2 at 1st. His defense has been average to a bit below average on the season. His fWAR and WARP are both -0.4 and his rWAR is -1.3. The average of the 3 is -0.7. He's only been on the roster because the Cubs suck and the only reason I'm even including him here is because he's stuck at the MLB level all season, but that's not an indication of how he's played. If they were paying him anything more than league minimum he'd be gone and even at league minimum he barely deserves the shot he was given.

► December 23, 2011: Cubs trade Sean Marshall to the Reds for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes

Contract:  Marshall was owed $3.1 million in 2012. The Reds subsequently extended him through the 2015 season, but that's irrelevant to us. Wood had just over a year of service time so was still a couple years of service time away from being arbitration eligible. Sappelt had 5 to 6 more years before free agency and Torreyes is in High A. 

At the time: Before it was known who the two minor leaguers were, this was a fantastic trade for the Cubs. Wood only for Marshall would have been a good haul. Getting Sappelt and especially Torreyes in the deal only sweetens it. 

Early Analysis: Marshall probably should have been the Cubs closer instead of Marmol over the last 2 to 3 seasons. The Cubs didn't do it and despite Marshall being a setup man, he was still damn valuable. He was just a reliever and the limited innings obviously limited his value, but the Cubs turned a relatively small trade surplus into 3 players. 

Performance: Marshall has kept doing what he'd done in Chicago. He has an impressive 2.36 ERA and 2.32 FIP to go along with 1.1 fWAR. His rWAR is 1.3 and his WARP 1.0 (average 1.1). He's provided value above his salary this year to the Reds.

Travis Wood has had an up and down season. He was terrible in spring training and lost his grip on the rotation. He spent some time in AAA posting a solid, but unspectacular 3.76 FIP even though his ERA 4.57. At the big leagues he hasn't been very good overall. His 4.77 ERA looks good compared to his 5.62 FIP. That's good for -0.2 fWAR. His rWAR is -0.1 and his WARP is 0.2 (average 0.0). Wood is still 25 and there's more than enough reason to think he can contribute something over the next few seasons, but back of the rotation is probably his ceiling at this point. He might be better off as a LOOGY. 

Dave Sappelt hit .256/.311/.345 at AAA this year. That's a .300 wOBA and a 71 wRC+. At 25 years old he probably doesn't have much of any career at the big league level ahead of him. 

Torreyes is only 19 and already at High A where he has hit .271/.332/.399. That's a .338 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Considering how poorly he started, that's quite good. After May his OPS was just a little over .500. He had an OPS of .923 in June and .849 in July. He's kept hitting in August. Considering the age, he's had a damn good season so far. 

The Cubs probably won't get much out of Wood and probably nothing from Sappelt, but they'll probably get enough from Wood to make the trade a good one by the time it ends. There's always the possibility Wood surprises though with his stuff I just wouldn't count on it. The real hope for making this as fantastic a trade as it was at the time is for Torreyes who could have a bright future in front of him.

JANUARY

► January 3, 2012: Cubs sign Reed Johnson

Contract:  1-year, $1.5 million

At the time: After hitting .309/.348/.367 (.354 wOBA, 116 wRC+) in 266 PA in 2011, re-signing Reed Johnson was a no-brainer. In 2011 his average WAR was 1.0 and as a 4th outfielder hitting primarily against lefties it was a safe bet he'd produce again. 

Early Analysis:  For $1.5 million there was no reason to be anything other than happy to get a guy of his quality to return.

Performance: In 183 PA Reed hit .302/.355/.444 prior to being traded to the Braves. His wOBA with the Cubs was .346 (112 wRC+) and he did exactly what the team expected (140 wRC+ vs lefties). 

► January 5, 2012: Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano to Miami Marlins for Chris Volstad

Contract:  Carlos Zambrano and all but the league minimum (about $17.5 million) were sent to the Marlins for Chris Volstad who somehow turned 3 mediocre to bad seasons in a $2.7 million first year arbitration salary. 

At the time: The Cubs should have paid no more than about $10-11 million AND received Chris Volstad or someone like him. This was a bad trade when it was made. If you looked only at the CAIRO projections it matched up perfectly, but there were other projections. That's about the best that can be said: using one projection system the trade wasn't bad. 

Early Analysis:  The Cubs traded away someone who was projected to be worth about 1.1 WAR for someone who was projected to be about replacement level or maybe a little bit better. Not only that, the Cubs send the Marlins buckets of cash and had to pay Volstad more than he ever deserved. It was the Cubs who signed this contract on January 17th. I can't even imagine what Volstad was asking for. There's almost no way he would have won in arbitration. Take the chance. Offer the guy what he's worth, which is about a million bucks or less. Fuck this $2.7 million shit. 

Performance: Volstad has somehow managed enough of a decent FIP (4.27) to be worth .6 fWAR. That's rather impressive considering he's given runs away for free this year. Here, take some runs. I'm Chris Volstad and I don't need them! I've got a decent FIP. Volstad's rWAR is -1.3 and his WARP is 0.0. Average them together and you get -0.2. Not surprisingly, he's been terrible and he's done while making way more money that he should have. And oh yeah, the Cubs sent a billion bucks to Miami too.

Zambrano got off a solid start this year, but his FIP at this point (4.56) matches his FIP from a year ago (4.59). He's struckout a few more batters, but walks a lot more. Z has been worth .8 fWAR, .5 rWAR and -0.2 WARP (average 0.4). 

The value difference is only about a win, but the Cubs are paying $20.2 million for below replacement production. 

► January 6, 2012: Cubs trade Andrew Cashner with Kyung-Min Na to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates

Contract:  All the players were auto-renewal (league minimum)

At the time: How could you not love turning a relief pitcher into a 22 year old 1st basemen? I don't even care if he had half the potential that Rizzo had, you'd have to love it.

Early Analysis:  The Cubs traded a former top prospect in Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo. The two other players involved were just there for the fun of it. We'll talk about them, but not much. I don't think this needs much analysis. This was an obvious win for the Cubs at the time of the trade. I'm shocked that 1) Josh Byrnes would even consider such a trade and 2) that the Padres owner would even allow it. If you get a chance to trade a highly touted pitching prospect for a highly touted position player you make that trade almost every time. You better than have an explanation why you would or wouldn't make such a trade and preferring Yonder Allonso and Andrew Cashner over Rizzo ain't one of them. 

Performance: Cashner has, like always, had some injury issues. He was moved back to the rotation, which helps lessen the damage of this trade if Cashner could ever stay healthy. That's unlikely. All Rizzo has done was tear up AAA .304/.346/.528 (.369, 128). He's been worth .9 fWAR, .9 rWAR and .8 WARP in less than 150 plate appearances. He's probably not this good, but for a guy who is 22 and who will only get better he's awfully damn valuable. 

Zach Cates is 22 and has split the season between High A and Low A. He's been terrible. Kyung-Min Na has been equally terrible.

► January 10, 2012: Cubs sign Paul Maholm

Contract:  1 year, $4.75 million with a club option for $6.5 million or a $0.5 million buyout (minimum earned salary would be $5.25 million)

At the time: Based on the available projections Maholm's average projected WAR was a little over 1. This gave him a value of about $6.5 million for one year. 

Early Analysis:  Maholm was quietly putting together a solid career in Pittsburgh. This was a good signing at the time and the projections prior to the season that I listed above underestimated his talent. Berselius ran them, as he did for other pitchers, and he came up with 2.3 WAR. What's not to like about signing a guy to produce a win when you can reasonably expect more than 2? 

Performance: As Berselius has been saying throughout the season, Paul Maholm did Paul Maholm things. In 120.1 innings he didn't walk many (2.5 per 9), strikeout a lot (6 per 9), had a 3.74 ERA and 4.13 FIP. His fWAR was 1.5, rWAR was 1.4 and for some unknown reason BPro's WARP was 0.0. PECOTA also projected only .6 WARP so if you went strictly on that projection and their value metric it didn't work out so well. 

Then again, the Cubs acquired one of the best pitching prospects entering the season for Maholm so yes, it worked out wonderfully. Although Arodys Vizcaino is recovering from Tommy John surgery, there's every reason to think he can bounce back and return to being the dominant pitcher he was. The question remains whether he can do that as a starter or as a reliever at the big league level. Either way, the Cubs ended up getting tremendous value for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. That trade alone more than justifies both contracts.

► January 13, 2012: Cubs sign Kerry Wood

Contract:  1 year, $3 million with a club option and no buyout

At the time: I wasn't as excited about this as a lot of Cubs fans were. I didn't think Kerry Wood deserved much of anything from the Cubs. I just didn't think he was good enough for the $4 million he wanted. 

Early Analysis:  What I just said can be put here too. It was only $3 million so it's not a big deal, but I'd have passed.

Performance: Wood retired in May after not pitching well early on. Presumably he didn't collect any additional paychecks so this ended up being for nothing. Cubs lost a little bit, but who really cares? 

FEBRUARY

► February 2, 2012: Cubs sign Gerardo Concepcion

Contract:  While the deal wasn't official until March 11, we learned in early February the Cubs and Concepcion had agreed a 5-year contract paying him $6 million. He was also added to the 40-man roster and as a result immediately began using his available option years.

At the time: This was a 20 year old who had struckout under 5 and walked just under 4 in his one year in Cuba (age 18). Giving this guy a contract worth millions was mind boggling and it was even more bizarre he'd be put on the 40-man roster.

Early Analysis:  Everything about this signing was based on projection. The scouts loved him. The numbers weren't fantastic, but we only had a small sample. It was a ton of money and a huge commitment that, in my opinion, was destined to fail from the start. 

Performance: I'm not sure what's worse about his performance. Is it the 70 hits allowed 52.1 innings in Low A? Is it the 30 walks (5.2 per 9, 12%)? The 28 strikeouts (4.8 per 9, 11.2%)? The 4 balks? Seriously, it's gotta be the balks. How can you balk 4 times in Low A? Among qualified pitchers (apparently somewhere around 70 innings) there is only 1 pitcher who has balked more than 4 times (David Goforth, 7). He's done so in more than twice the innings. If it's not all of that, what about the 6 home runs? This guy is fucking terrible. He makes Hayden Simpson look like Cy Young. What a shit contract at the time and it's looking even dumber now. One scout from another team who recently saw him said the Cubs keep trying to say it's the mechanics, but if you were at a junior college game and saw this guy pitch you'd leave. Even Hayden Simpson kept people in their seats at D2 games.

► February 21, 2012: Cubs trade Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz to the Boston Red Sox for Theo Epstein 

Contract:  Carpenter and Kurcz were auto-renewal player

At the time: The Cubs acquired one of the best GM's in the game and gave up only a relief pitcher. There are arguments that the Cubs shouldn't have even been willing to give anyone up, but losing an injury prone relief pitcher for Theo is no big deal. The Cubs hired Theo in October so he'd been on the job 4 months by this time anyway. 

Early Analysis:  see above

Performance: Carpenter has been injured, but Kurcz has been damn good at the age of 21 at AA. He turns 22 tomorrow and so far this year in AA he's struckout 12.9 batters per 9 though he has walked 4.8 per 9. He's struckout 32.1% of the batters faced and walked 12.1% of them. That's an excellent K-BB%. He's thrown 50.1 innings and has an ERA of 3.04 and an FIP of 3.10. 

If you could sum Year One up in any way, I would probably go with this: throw crap at the wall and hope some of it sticks. While the Cubs did acquire a fantastic prospect in Anthony Rizzo, most of what they did this past offseason was rearranging the deck chairs. Along with the great trade for Rizzo, the Cubs sure acted dumb when they acquired Concepcion for about $6 million more than he was worth. Overall, you've got to be pleased with how the offseason turned out. Those expecting every transaction to turn to gold have quickly learned that isn't happening, but most of us already knew that.