Tag: justin ruggiano

Cubs 7, Pirates 5 (4/9/14)

OSS: Twin Towers Topple Tons of Tiny Traducer Taters

Three Five Up

1. Junior Lake wanted more playing time. After a conservatively-estimated 800-foot blast onto whatever street comes after Waveland, he just might get it. Sure, he didn’t have the most totally productive day, but if you hit a ball as far as Lake did, it’s easy to be wooed.

2. Anthony Rizzo dumped 2 doubles and 2 singles on the Pirates’ staff. He’s up to .375 on the year, and also has been his usual stout self defensively.

3. Olt had a HR that went higher than it went far – if the wind wasn’t howling out, he’s not close to a home run – but that doesn’t matter in the score sheet. He also had a single, his first non-HR hit of the season. Olt also had a few nifty plays with the glove.

4. Jason Hammel only gave up 3 hits – all solo home runs. He was really on, inducing tons of weak contact, and only walked one. He fanned 6. When he missed, he was rocked, but he only missed 5 or 6 times all game. It was a very solid performance.

5. Welington Castillo went 2-3 with a walk. Castillo needs to turn it on offensively, if his framing is as bad as believed.

Three Down

1. Pedro Strop gave up back-to-back jacks to Alvarez and Martin. He’s look awfully shaky the past 2 games. Something to watch.

2. Justin Ruggiano did have a double for the first run of the game. Unfortunately, he struck out his other 3 at bats. Not a terrible game, but he’s still shown very little to earn a roster spot so far in the early season.

3. Just nitpicking, but Castro went 1-5. That’s not that bad, but EVERYONE was a contributor yesterday (even Ruggiano’s game wasn’t truly bad).

This was the best game the Cubs have played all year. They walked 4 times, had 14 hits (6 for extra bases), and Hammel kept the Pirates guessing all night. Also, Rondon has quietly become a lights-out reliever. Believe it!

Next Game

Going on right now (Wood v. Cole).

Quiet Optimism

So, we've got the team. My best guess at the 25-man roster (Wins Above Replacement – Myles):

Position Player WARM
C Castillo 1.5
1B Rizzo 3.0
2B Valbuena 1.0
SS Castro 2.5
3B Olt 1.0
LF Lake 1.0
CF Sweeney 1.5
RF Schierholtz 1.0
4OF Ruggiano 1.0
5OF Vitters 0.5
UTIL Barney 1.0
UTIL Roberts 0.75
2C Kottaras 0.5
#1 Wood 2.0
#2 Samardzija 2.0
#3 Jackson 1.5
#4 Hammel 1.0
#5 McDonald 0.0
Spot Villanueva 0.75
Spot Rondon 0.25
LOOGY Russell 0.25
LOOGY Wright 0.0
MI Parker 0.0
SU Strop 0.5
CL Veras 1.0
Total   25.0
Adjusted   72.7

Other considerations for the 25-man roster: Logan Watkins, Darnell McDonald, Justin Grimm, Chris Rusin, Armando Rivero, Arodys Vizcaino. There are plenty of other configurations that could emerge, but none of them are appreciably different.

These are quick-and-dirty calculations, and for the most part I think they are very defensible. I admit some of the bench pieces are high, but I built in more playing time than they'll get in their calculations. This assumes that every single player on the 25-man stays on the 25-man the whole season – this obviously won't happen (I think I remember a study showing that a team's 25-man Opening Day roster accounts for roughly 80-85% of that team's playing time in a season). Still, it's a reasonable facsimile, especially if you believe that every team will face roughly the same amount of roster turnover and that their replacements will be of similar quality (I think our replacements are actually slightly better than the average, actually). 

I let's make a sub-table of the players likely to be traded this year and their midseason WARM (either not signed for 2015 or unwilling to sign an extension):

Schierholtz 0.5
Samardzija 1.0
Hammel 0.5
Villanueva 0.375
Veras 0.5

That's only a loss of 2.375 WARM. If that's the case, I think we can reasonably project that even if we jettison every tradeable asset in 2014 (including Shark, which is no certainty), we'd still hover around a 70 win true-talent team. There's a psychological boon to starting your win total with a 7, but more importantly it would represent some incremental progress towards respectability. 

70 wins isn't as far away as you might think. Terrible as the Cubs were last season, they still won 66 games. Their pythagorean win total was 71, so even if we haven't improved (and don't worry, we haven't), we still have a similar true talent level. We're a young team as well, so we aged better than the average squad, and most of our star talent underperformed. 

The "go-for-it" win expectation is probably around 85 wins. Once you have a mid-80s squad, each marginal win becomes incredibly valuable. However, you have to climb the ladder some time. Being 20 wins away means it is very easy to punt on 2015, which (in turn) makes it easier to punt on 2016. 15 wins is still a hell of a climb, but you can get 15 wins in an offseason if you spend correctly and promote a few prospects that work out (something we're poised to do in 2015). In 2015, we could reasonably see the full-season debuts of Christian Villanueva, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Arismendy Alcantara, C.J. Edwards, and Pierce Johnson. It's incredibly unlikely (150 to 1 odds?) that all 6 of those take the steps necessary to be ready for the season, but it is possible. Pitchers historically require less seasoning in the majors, and it's worth noting that in the BP Cubs Top 10 they have an ETA of 2015 (not late 2015) or sooner for each of the top 9 guys. 

Here's some more optimism. I'm way down on Junior Lake, who I think will be absolutely exposed in the majors offensively. He's a prospect at SS, a sort-of prospect at 2B, and a 4th OF and a corner. However, Junior Lake would have placed 8th on the BP list if he was eligibile (he was 10th on the talents 25 and under, and Castro and Rizzo are there). That might be damning with faint praise; it isn't. Everyone above him was a comfortable Top 101 prospect, and most people have preached the high ceiling that still exists. I don't think Junior Lake is going to work out, but I'm seemingly in the shrinking minority. If you think about Junior Lake as being a bottom-100 prospect that just so happens to already be on the team, it's more exciting than it was before (and Lake DID put up 1.6 WARP last season). 

Even if 2014 doesn't end up being a magical ride into the sunset, the Cubs still have enormous payroll flexibility in the future. The Cubs shed $33 million in payroll with the losses of Soriano, Hammel, Schierholtz, Fujikawa's buyout and Villanueva. Shark gets probably a $3 million arb raise, Rizzo and Castro graduate to another $5 million, and most of the other arb situations are irrelevant (let's put another $18 million on those raises (Castillo, Wood, and another 10 or so players that graduate in arb status, but many of these players will be non-tendered so that's probably a huge overstatement). That puts the Cubs up $7 million from an already extremely depressed payroll ($84.5 to open this year, if you're wondering). If the Cubs' effective payroll is just a cool $100 million, that's something like $23 million a year to play with AFTER arb raises. That could buy a lot of stuff.

2014 doesn't figure to be a very successful year. However, I think it'll be incremental more successful than 2013, and hopefully a nice springboard to a watchable 2015. Also, milb.tv is just $40!

Cubs sign Chris Coghlan to minor league deal with ST invite

Coghlan won the Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, when he slashed .321/.390/.460 (aided and abetted by a .368 BABIP). Since then, he's taken turns being injured and ineffective. He tore his meniscus in 2010 and was never really the same. Last season, he was a super-utility guy, playing at least 1 game at 2B, 3B, LF, CF, and RF. He was a 3B in college and is not a great fielder, but I guess he's got as good a chance as anyone to be the 25th man on this roster and romantic, hot-chocolate-by-the-fire types can always dream on a return to the form he took a half-decade ago. He bats lefty, so he basically replaces Brian Bogusevic on our roster. 

You can now consider Justin Ruggiano a freeroll.

Winter Meetings Roundup

The annual Winter Meetings took place this week and we had you covered here on Obstructed View we were lazy bastards and kept you uninformed. I'd apologize for this. It is the first of the meetings that I have not covered thoroughly in 10 years. I'm just tired of apologizing so let's just get to it.

The biggest news is that the Cubs traded Brian Bogusevic to the Marlins for 31-year old Justin Ruggiano. Ruggiano is first-year arbitration eligible while Bogusevic would have earned roughly the league minimum. No worries. Ruggiano won't cost much to sign and offers the ability to play the same position and hit lefties rather well. Bogusevic could hit righties decently and had a good 2013, but was not by any means necessary to the Cubs rebuilding. 

It's maybe worth pointing out that with Ruggiano now on the roster, the Cubs could definitely afford to give free agent Shin-Soo Choo 15-20 off days vs. lefties. Choo does not hit lefties very well and if you could add Ruggiano's bat in his place, you'd be doing well. I'm not sure I'd take Choo at his cost, but I don't see him getting 7-years and $140 million either. 

Oliver is projecting a .331 wOBA (109 wRC+) out of Ruggiano in 2014 to go along with excellent defense (+7.2). If he can do that, he'll earn a starter's job in the Cubs outfield, which isn't exaclty stacked with talent right now. I'm a bit skeptical.

The Cubs also picked up right-handed starting pitcher Liam Hendriks off of waivers today. Hendricks hasn't made much of himself at the big league level, but has shown he can pitch in the minors. He doesn't strike a lot of batters out, but throws a lot of strikes. The Cubs could also move him to the bullpen if he doesn't work out as a starter and are under no obligation to have him on their 25-man roster. Hendricks was twice rated by Baseball America in the Twins top 10 prospects. 

Hendriks fits Minnesota's mold as a command-oriented starter. His fastball often sits at 86-92 mph and peaks at 94. He uses both two- and four-seamers, complementing his sinker with a solid slider. When he's in rhythm, Hendriks peppers the bottom of the zone and commands his fastball to his arm side, allowing him to induce weak contact with his slider and above-average changeup to his glove side. He mixes in a curveball as a fourth pitch. He's a strong competitor and good athlete, both owing in part to his family's Australian rules football background. — Baseball America, prior to 2012

I'll take that.

They signed Ryan Roberts to a minor league deal today. While with the Diamondbacks in 2009 and 2010, Roberts put together two fine seasons and looked like he might finally be putting it together. He then struggled in 2012, was traded to the Rays that year, and struggled again in 2013. He can hit for some power and will probably see some action with the Cubs, but I don't expect him to return to where he was in 2009 and 2010. Worth a shot, though.

Not yet done, the Cubs signed former top 100 prospect Ryan Kalish. Kalish was ranked just inside the top 100 back in 2008 and spent his career with Boston. He has not done anything at the big league level, but it was a waiver pick and you have to fill out the spring training roster. All 3 of these guys were given invites to spring training.

The Cubs didn't trade Jeff Samardzija and I'm still going to be surprised to see it done, but probably not as surprised as I'd have been several weeks ago. Word on the street is that the Cubs are asking for two of the Blue Jays top pitching prospects, along with another prospect, in return for Samardzija. Why not? Probably won't get it, but the Cubs don't have to act so may as well dream big. 

That ends our marathon coverage of the Winter Meetings.