Tag: kosuke fukudome

Cubs rWAR and fWAR

Most of you are at least somewhat familiar with WAR and how it works. I’d bet most of you are familiar that Fangraphs publishes their own WAR (fWAR) and Baseball Reference publishes their own. BRef’s WAR is based on Rally Monkey’s formula and it’s been referred to as rWAR for a few years now. There are some key differences between the way these are calculated.

First of all, they use a different defensive metric. Fangraphs uses UZR while the one published on Baseball Reference uses Rally’s defensive metric called Total Zone. More importantly than that though, the two systems use a different baseline for replacement level. fWAR uses around a .280 winning percentage while rWAR is at about .320. As a result, there are many more wins available using the method Fangraphs does. About 6 per team or so. Furthermore, fWAR uses wOBA while rWAR uses BaseRuns. Only stolen bases and times caught stealing are considered for fWAR (it’s part of the wOBA calculation). rWAR calculates baserunning runs. fWAR doesn’t consider GIDP. rWAR does.

fWAR was a great way to look at a player’s value prior to Baseball Reference publishing them, but rWAR is the superior figure because it incorporates so much more. BaseRuns is significantly better than using wOBA to calculate runs.

For pitchers, fWAR considers only what a pitcher has complete control over. The stats used to calculate defense indpenent pitching stats like FIP (walks, strikeouts, HBP, home runs). rWAR considers the runs allowed and then takes the team defensive rating and assigns a value for the defensive contribution based on playing time. If 100 innings have been pitched by a team and their defense is 10 runs, then rWAR spreads those 10 runs around. A pitcher who threw 10 innings was helped by 1 run by his defense.

WAR is simply a framework for calculating how valuable a player is. You don’t have to use UZR or Total Zone. You can substitute any defensive metric you want. I’ve seen some use the Fans Scouting Report. There is Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), a run value on defense could be calculated using THT’s old defensive stats (RZR and OOZ). You can use different metrics for offense as long as you’re converting that metric into runs. So whatever metric you choose has to be able to covert to runs. You can use a stat like FIP which considers only strikeouts, walks, and home runs. You could use tRA which considers that information and batted ball types. You could use RA as long as you adjust for defense.

As a result, you’re going to get different WAR figures. That’s why rWAR and fWAR differ as much as they do. On here we often reference fWAR, but ignore rWAR altogether even though I think it’s the superior metric. I wanted to publish the fWAR and rWAR for the Cubs players and talk about which players the systems most disagree on.

Name PA rWAR fWAR Diff-WAR
Starlin Castro 141 0.0 0.5 0.5
Geovany Soto 117 0.6 0.9 0.3
Jeff Baker 62 0.2 0.5 0.3
Carlos Pena 101 -0.3 -0.1 0.2
Reed Johnson 35 0.1 0.3 0.2
Blake DeWitt 26 0.1 0.2 0.1
Koyie Hill 15 0.0 0.1 0.1
Marlon Byrd 135 0.1 0.2 0.1
Darwin Barney 120 0.5 0.6 0.1
Tyler Colvin 64 -0.7 -0.6 0.1
Alfonso Soriano 117 0.5 0.4 -0.1
Aramis Ramirez 130 0.4 0.2 -0.2
Kosuke Fukudome 92 1.5 1 -0.5

rWAR hasn’t been the least bit impressed with Starlin Castro since he came into the league. In fact, his career rWAR (647 PA) is only 0.4. That’s a full season as yesterday marked the one year anniversary of his call-up and he’s been an everyday player since he came to Chicago. rWAR sees Castro as slightly better than replacement and exactly replacement level this season. The difference with Soto is likely just the baseline being used. rWAR sees Fukudome as being worth 1.5 wins already, but Fangraphs has him worth only 1. rWAR sees Barney as being the 3rd most valuable position player on the Cubs. Fukudome ranks 6th in the NL in rWAR and has many fewer plate appearances than the 5 ahead of him.

Name IP rWAR fWAR Diff
Matt Garza 44.2 0.3 2 1.7
Ryan Dempster 38 -1.2 -0.2 1
James Russell 18.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.4
Carlos Zambrano 44.2 0.5 0.8 0.3
Marcos Mateo 13.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3
Casey Coleman 24.1 -0.1 0 0.1
John Grabow 13 -0.1 -0.1 0
Sean Marshall 14 0.7 0.7 0
Jeff Stevens 7 0 -0.1 -0.1
Carlos Marmol 14.2 0.7 0.5 -0.2
Andrew Cashner 5.1 0.2 0 -0.2
Justin Berg 8 0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Randy Wells 6 0.3 0 -0.3
Jeff Samardzija 18.1 0.5 0.1 -0.4
Kerry Wood 13 0.7 0.2 -0.5

No surprise to see Matt Garza as the biggest loser when we compare him to his rWAR. His FIP has been ridiculously good so far, which results in an impressive fWAR. His RA total hasn’t been nearly as impressive. Among starting pitchers, we see that Carlos Zambrano has been the most valuable starter according to rWAR. James Russell goes from bad in fWAR to horrible. Same thing for Dempster. Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood are tied for the team lead in rWAR among pitchers. Impressive bullpen, but not so impressive rotation. The rotation as a whole has been worth .5 rWAR compared to 2.3 fWAR. Sean Marshall’s 6 Runs Above Replacement (RAR) on Baseball Reference leads all Cubs pitchers.

Among all players on the Cubs this season, Garza loses the most when we compares his fWAR to his rWAR. Dempster is next and Castro is right after him. If you look at fWAR you might think Garza is going to win the Cy Young Award and that Castro is a really good shortstop for his age. If you look at rWAR, you see that Garza has been just OK and Castro has been a replacement level shortstop so far.

I’m not saying one is right. I don’t think that either one of them is right. They use slightly different methods to get the totals that they do. I think defensive totals at this point in the season are a joke and wouldn’t include them if it were me. A team defense adjustment I can get behind for pitchers, but not for individual players. So I’d exclude UZR, Total Zone or any defensive metric at this point. That’s just me though.

Continue reading “Cubs rWAR and fWAR”

Cubs compared to their projections

I wrote this on Friday morning so it’s updated through Thursday’s games. I’m too lazy to update it to include Friday’s blowout loss.

This is something I’ll try to update once a month just so we can see where players are at compared to their projections. It’s something SG has done on RLYW a few times over the last couple years and I really like the idea so I’m going to borrow it. Mike Leake would steal it.

I’m using the projected wOBA and actual wOBA to calculate each players wRC. That’s based on the number of plate appearances of course. It’s the run value the player has contributed to his team.

Name PA wOBA wRC Proj-wOBA Proj wRC Diff
Starlin Castro 83 .405 15.1 .328 9.4 5.7
Aramis Ramirez 77 .374 12.1 .352 8.7 3.4
Alfonso Soriano 70 .375 11.1 .338 7.9 3.2
KosukeFukudome 41 .408 7.6 .342 4.6 3.0
Jeff Baker 31 .381 5.1 .321 3.5 1.6
Reed Johnson 16 .427 3.2 .302 1.8 1.4
Darwin Barney 61 .323 7.2 .293 6.9 0.3
Geovany Soto 65 .307 6.8 .363 7.4 -0.6
Blake DeWitt 14 .269 1.0 .319 1.6 -0.6
Koyie Hill 10 .229 .4 .272 1.1 -0.7
Marlon Byrd 77 .274 6.1 .335 8.7 -2.6
Carlos Pena 60 .261 4.1 .362 6.8 -2.7
Tyler Colvin 48 .234 2.3 .328 5.4 -3.1

There are sample size issues here to consider before you start saying how much a player sucks. Marlon Byrd is not going ot post a .274 wOBA this season. Get real. Colvin and Pena won’t hit as poorly as they have either. On the other hand, Castro, Fukudome, Johnson and Baker won’t hit nearly as well as they have. Overall, the offense has produced 8 more runs than expected so far.

Name IP RA FIP Proj-RA Proj-FIP Diff-RA Diff-FIP
Randy Wells 6 1.50 5.18 4.48 4.10 2.98 -1.08
Andrew Cashner 5.1 1.76 5.26 4.73 4.5 2.96 -0.76
Sean Marshall 9 1.00 1.35 3.85 3.51 2.85 2.16
Jeff Stevens 3.2 2.81 3.56 5.49 4.57 2.68 1.01
Jeff Samardzija 11 4.09 5.1 5.79 5.33 1.70 0.23
Kerry Wood 6.1 2.95 4.75 4.03 3.73 1.08 -1.02
Casey Coleman 10.2 4.41 6.2 4.89 4.45 0.48 -1.75
Carlos Marmol 9.2 2.93 2.29 3.25 3.07 0.32 0.78
Carlos Zambrano 25.2 4.29 3.91 4.18 3.89 -0.10 -0.02
Matt Garza 24.2 4.83 1.23 4.34 4.27 -0.50 3.04
Marcos Mateo 7.1 6.34 1.51 5.46 4.86 -0.88 3.35
Ryan Dempster 25 7.20 4.61 4.17 4 -3.03 -0.61
James Russell 9 9.00 6.57 5.46 4.92 -3.54 -1.65
John Grabow 6.2 10.16 8.11 4.71 4.53 -5.45 -3.58

Too small a sample to even talk about. Just wanted to post it so you could see it for yourself.

Continue reading “Cubs compared to their projections”

Should Brett Jackson be starting for the Cubs?

Brett Jackson was the Cubs first round pick in 2009 and the 31st pick overall. It was the first time that I could remember that the Cubs selected someone who knew how to get on base. Jackson took a lot of walks on college and there was never any doubt as to his ability to reach base. He also had a lot of strikeouts, which concerned some people. It didn’t bother me. It was the change in philosophy that I liked most. I liked that even more than I liked picking Jackson and I though he had a very good chance to become a star for the Cubs.

I had become too familiar with the Cubs and their tendency to draft guys in the top rounds who could not get on base. Guys like Luis Montanez, Corey Patterson, Ryan Harvey, Tyler Colvin and even Josh Vitters. These guys couldn’t take a walk to save their lives. Brooks Kieschnick was OK, but far from great. Off the top of my head I look back at Kevin Orie as the last position player the Cubs drafted in the first round who actually knew how to take some pitches. I can’t remember too much about the skills of the players before him. Guys like Doug Glanville, Earl Cunningham, Ty Griffin and Derrick May. I should look into that sometime, but it’s not important here.

In 2009 the Cubs finally chose a guy who could work the count and I was thrilled. Not only could he work the count, but he hit for average, power, played a premium defensive position in CF, reportedly had a strong throwing arm and could get on base. While none of these tools apparently grade out as excellent, they were all above average. For years the Cubs had their so-called five tool talents. The only problem with guys like Patterson, Felix Pie and Ryan Harvey is that they weren’t five tool talents. None of them could get on base at a high enough rate for that to even be considered above average. Not without hitting for a high average anyway. In Brett Jackson they had a guy who you could fairly easily see hitting .300/.400/.500. I don’t think the Cubs have drafted anybody in at least ten years in the top few rounds who you could look at and think they could someday reasonably hit that well.

Jackson could easily have flamed out. The strikeouts could have been too difficult to overcome. There was certainly a possibility as there is with any prospect. It wasn’t that I thought Jackson was a for sure top talent in the draft. I liked it because he could get on base and that’s something the Cubs have not valued highly enough in the top round of the draft.

It’s now Jackson’s age 22 season and after his first full minor league season in 2010 he had already played about half a season at AA. He returned to AA to start the season this year and all he’s done so far is post a wOBA greater than .500. That’s all. It’s a small sample of course. He’s not Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth. Don’t get that excited.

Jackson has 4 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, 12 walks, 6 stolen bases and he’s slugging over .750. He’s hit at every single level he’s been and he’s probably not long for AA. He won’t continue to hit as well as he has so far, but I think it’s becoming clear that AA just isn’t presenting him with much of a challenge at this point.

He’s almost certainly going to get some playing time this season for the Cubs. It could be as late as September, but I think it will be sometime in June. I think he continues to hit well enough the Cubs simply can’t overlook how damn good he is. It’s also easier for the Cubs because it’s not like they have an awesome hitting outfield or anything. It’s a very poor hitting outfield. The Cubs left fielder, Alfonso Soriano, is projected to hit .338 (wOBA) this season. Marlon Byrd is a bit worse at .335, Tyler Colvin is at .328. Kosuke Fukudome is the best hitting outfield and that’s largely because his playing time against lefties has been limited. His projected wOBA is .342. Brett Jackson’s projected wOBA is .326.

There’s actually very little difference in the projections between Brett Jackson and Kosuke Fukudome who has the best projected wOBA among the outfielders. Since Fukudome, Soriano and Colvin are corner outfielders, they’re not as valuable as Jackson who plays a much tougher defensive position. Byrd is the most valuable outfielder the Cubs have, but he plays CF. He’s projected to hit about 10 points of wOBA higher than Jackson, which isn’t at all significant. Byrd’s updated projection would be a bit lower while Jackson’s would be higher, but Byrd would still be the better hitter as far as projections go. Defensively, I don’t know. Your guess is as good as mine. Byrd isn’t a great defender, but word is that Jackson isn’t a terrific one either. It’s probably fair to consider them equal on defense.

As a result, Jackson would be the superior player to the other outfielders. His defense in a corner would  be better than any of the others and since Jackson has shown an ability to hit lefties while Fukudome has struggled, we can safely assume Jackson is the second most valuable outfielder in the Cubs organization.

We don’t want to bring him up to play a corner outfield spot though. That would be stupid. His value to this team in the future is as a CF and that’s where you want to keep him. Since Byrd is the better player right now, you keep Jackson in the minors even though he’s the team’s second best outfielder. If you can move Byrd at some point in the near future, go ahead and do so. There won’t be much of a loss, if any, if you switch to Jackson in CF. Jackson may even prove to be significantly better right out of the gate.

My guess is that is that Jackson hits well enough to earn a promotion to Iowa in the next 4 to 5 weeks and anytime after that he could get called up. I’d be kind of surprised if we don’t see Jackson sometime in June. I think the Cubs will make room for him in CF at some point. I know we’ve heard rumors about Marlon Byrd and the Nationals, but it’s too early for that. Each year it seems we hear about a player this early in the season the Cubs are looking to trade or even discussing with another team. Trades usually don’t happen this early in the season.

Continue reading “Should Brett Jackson be starting for the Cubs?”

11 Cubs Sure To Disappoint

I should have written this about ten days ago, but I didn’t so I’m going to do it now. Early season stats mean absolutely nothing to me so there’s no risk of them influencing this list.

10. Blake DeWitt

Why he’s here: The Cubs got Blake DeWitt from the Dodgers last summer in return for Ted Lilly. Lilly was a very good pitcher for the Cubs for 3+ seasons and with only two months remaining on his contract, the lefty simply didn’t have much value. The Cubs did get Blake DeWitt and a couple minor leaguers who may actually make an impact this season, but Cubs fans wanted more than DeWitt. It didn’t bother them so much last year since it was the end of the season, but with a full season ahead of him, an inability to high lefties or righties, Cubs fans will begin complaining about DeWitt since that’s all they got for Lilly.

Why he might not be here: The Cubs go to a strict DeWitt/Baker platoon and each of them performs better in that split statistic. The 2nd base job for the Cubs produces more than expected and people begin to forget about Mark DeRosa

9. Sean Marshall

Why he’s here: The lefty reliever had a breakout season last year, but he’s actually been quite good as a reliever for awhile now. He posted a 3.74 FIP in 2009 and his ERA as a reliever prior to 2010 was about 3.20. The reason Marshall’s not looked as good as those numbers is because of the starts he’s gotten in the big leagues. His FIP in 2010 was nearly 1 run less than his career FIP as a reliever. It was roughly 1.5 runs worse than his FIP in 2009. Marshall also picked up a modest two-year contract, but with the increased money and increased level of performance, expectations are really high.

Why he might not be here: Maybe he really improved that much. I won’t believe until I see it, but it’s always possible. His curveball is a lot of fun to watch even if Marshall is Trachsel-esque on the mound.

8. Carlos Marmol

Why he’s here: Ridiculously good season in 2010 and that led to a three year contract. It’s almost impossible that Marmol will have another season as good as his 2010 season and the media and fans always compare players to the performance they posted the year they their contracts.

Why he might not be here: If he can show improved command and/or the offense performs better than expected, which would lead to a higher saves total. The media and fans love that.

7. Kerry Wood

Why he’s here: Yeah, all three of the relievers at the back end of the Cubs bullpen make the list and are right next to one another. Cubs fans remember 1998 Kerry Wood. Some also remember 2003 Wood and some also even remember 2008 Kerry Wood. Since he left the Cubs his numbers as a reliever have not been especially impressive (league average actually, which isn’t good for a reliever). His dominating 2008 as a reliever was helped out significantly by Wood walking 2 batters fewer per 9 innings. Since then the walks have increased to career high levels. His unsustainable home run rate in 2008 has also increased to his career average rate.

Why he might not be here: He struckout 20 batters in a game in 1998. Every single Cubs fans, even ones who weren’t yet alive, remember that game. He’s an icon in Chicago and he took $1.5 million to come back to Chicago when he could have earned millions more elsewhere. If he’s judged on his performance, Cubs fans will be disappointed. It’s likely one of those where fans end up being a bit of both and they’ll want the Cubs to re-sign him after the season is over.

6. Carlos Pena

Why he’s here: Coming off an awful season in Tampa Bay and joining a team in which the beat writers still think batting average is the tell-all statistic. Pena will hit for a low average. He’ll probably get on base and hit for some power too, but come August when fans take note of his .220ish batting average, the media and fans will wonder why on earth Jim Hendry signed a guy who hit below .200 last year.

Why he might not be here: Like Adam Dunn, Pena is more than capable of driving in a lot of runs and that’s another statistic that’s looked at too often as an evaluation tool. That will be hard to do since he doesn’t hit lefties especially well and unlike Dunn, isn’t going to hit in the middle of the order all the time. Against lefties, he’ll hit lower.

5. Kosuke Fukudome

Why he’s here: It’s the final year of Fukudome’s 4-year, $42 million contract the Cubs and Fukudome signed following the 2007 season. It’s important to note in my opinion that at the time the media and fans were talking about how Fukudome was going to be the next Cubs superstar. That never made sense to me. Based on his stats in Japan and how other Japanes position players had performed, Fukudome was likely to be about an .800 OPS hitter. Maybe a bit lower or a bit higher. Certainly not bad, but not great. Fukudome got off to an outstanding start and by 2009 Cubs fans were ready to see him go. It’s likely to get uglier than ever this season.

Why he might not be here: So far Fukudome is playing primarily vs righties while Colvin is tasked with the difficult duty of hitting lefties. Fukudome has hit righties well in his career and it’s possible he puts up some big numbers this year in part time duty. Even if that happens, Cubs fans are still probably going to be disappointed in what they got out of Fukudome.

4. Starlin Castro

Why he’s here: Castro set the bar high last year. As a 20-year old he held his own in the big leagues and I think it was even reported over one million times that his batting average was over .300 when the season ended. That’s a flashy number for someone that age. Some of his other numbers weren’t nearly as impressive and he ended up being about league average based on wOBA, but batting average is still king. It’s hard to hit .300 in the big leagues and there’s a very good chance Castro’s sophomore season will be judged on his batting average.

Why he might not be here: Maybe he’s Tony Gwynn who never batted below .300. If Castro can maitain those averages, his defense will become less a focus than it has been.

3. Tyler Colvin

Why he’s here: The lefty slugger had a breakout season a year ago and flashed some legit power. He strikes out a lot and the fans hate strikeouts. He doesn’t get on base that much and his batting average is going to remain low. He’s no longer new to the media and fans so his flaws will stand out more this season.

Why he might not be here: He’s not Kosuke Fukudome.

2. Carlos Zambrano

Why he’s here: When you think back to the 2003 season the Cubs entered the season with a rotation of Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Matt Clement, Shawn Estes and the young Carlos Zambrano. Entering 2004 fans referred to the Cubs rotation as Wood, Prior, Clement and Zambrano. After Clement left it was Wood, Prior and Zambrano. Zambrano fared better than expected for several seasons when he was considered either a back end of the rotation starter or a mid rotation one. Once Wood and Prior went down for good, Zambrano became the top of the rotation and that was during the awful 2006 Cubs season. Fans often talk about how Zambrano has never lived up to the hype. Zambrano was an afterthought in the Cubs rotation for several years and he never lived up to the hype? No, the hype never lived up to Carlos Zambrano. He can’t win with the fans and media. He’s a polarizing athlete and has had enough run-ins to more than wear out his welcome, if we was ever actually welcomed in the first place.

Why he might not be here: Zambrano becomes the so-called good-luck pitcher as the Cubs offense scores bundles with him on the mound. As a result he wins 17 or more games. If that happens, then all we’ll hear is about how the Cubs paid Zambrano $1 million per win so people are just less disappointed. There’s no winning for Zambrano. He ain’t Charlie Sheen.

1b. Mike Quade

Why he’s here: The team won a million games last season after he took over, but the only difference between the team before and during was Carlos Zambrano. The clubhouse chemistry was much talked about, but winning results in good clubhouse chemistry. As this team loses, that clubhouse chemistry gets worse. With a first year manager in the big leagues, it could get bad quickly and Quade may find himself unemployed by August. From the sounds of it, the chemistry may already be an issue and it’s only going to get worse.

Why he might not be here: The same Cubs who stood up for him after the season continue to stand up for him. Based on the history of sports, that’s not usually true, but the history of sports already ended so it doesn’t matter.

1. Alfonso Soriano

Why he’s here: He signed an 8-year, $136 million contract after the 2006 season.

Why he might not be here:

Others who may disappoint: Aramis Ramirez, Matt Garza, Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner.

Continue reading “11 Cubs Sure To Disappoint”

Obstructed View Opening Day Roundtable – part 1

Your fearless Obstructed View Executive Chairmen got together to discuss various topics related to the 2011 Cubs season. Here’s part one of our roundtable, that focuses on the offseason and specific players/figures. Part 2 will focus on our predictions for the 2011 season.

Mike Quade

[mb21] : Should we start with Quade?
[aisle 424] : Sounds as good as anything.
[berselius] : Sure
[AndCounting] : Sure. Quade is my hero.
[mb21] : More of a hero than Super Starlin?
[AndCounting] : Until Quade started talking I thought I was the most longwinded person in the tri-state area.
[AndCounting] : Heh, yeah. Even more than SS.
[berselius] : I don’t mind that Quade is long-winded
[aisle 424] : I think it’s going to get him in trouble, eventually.
[mb21] : I really wish Quade wouldn’t talk as much, but then I also feel like a hypocrite. Fans said players like Bradley and Jack Jones should just shut up and I argued they had every right to speak up.
[berselius] : If he draws the quote-generators away from the players he’s doing his job
[mb21] : I also think it will get him in trouble. Not sure how, but talking that much in public is dangerous.
[berselius] : He needs to go to the Crash Davis School of One Day At A Time
[aisle 424] : Exactly.  Especially with the likes of the Chicago beat writers looking to make stories out of nothing.
[mb21] : He is if he’s not throwing his players under the bus. I’m not sure he’s done exactly that, but I don’t feel like he’s stuck up for his players either.
[AndCounting] : Sometimes I think he could say something ridiculously offensive and outlandish and bury it in so much gibberish no one will even quote it. That’s a skill.
[mb21] : I’ll say that I’m much more anxious to see how he actually manages though. If he turns out to be a good manager, I don’t really care how much he talks.
[berselius] : The Castro stuff last year is certainly the most troubling incident. I don’t really mind what happened with Silva. He handled the Silva-Ramirez dust up like he should have
[aisle 424] : It’s the Ozzie method.
[berselius] : One big plus for Quade is that he knows all the young guys well
[berselius] : Lou was always too hard on young players
[mb21] : I don’t mind the Silva situation either, but it just seemed a good opportunity to show some professionalism. To me it seemd they were just kicking a guy who was already down.
[berselius] : I remember hearing that a lot of the young pitchers like Coleman, etc were much more comfortable after Quade took over
[mb21] : Did we learn anything about Quade’s managerial tendencies last season?
[aisle 424] : I also think there is something the players feel in playing for Quade that they didn’t for Lou. Whether that is just a result of the late push or because of Quade’s methods, or just the circumstance is what we don’t know.
[berselius] : As MO has been saying for awhile, Silva has a rep as a bad clubhouse guy. I don’t mind Quade venting some steam if everyone there thought he was a jackass.
[mb21] : I’m sure it’s been easier for young players to work with Quade than Lou. Lou demanded as much or more than any manager in the game.
[aisle 424] : I think they also knew he wasn’t long for the team.  whether they did stuff his way or not, he was going to be gone.
[mb21] : I think we’ll learn a lot more about how the players feel about Quade this season than we did last year. It’s easy to like a manager when you’re playing so well.
[aisle 424] : The first losing streak will be pretty telling.
[AndCounting] : I don’t think we learned much. At least not much about the in-game stuff. Obviously he earned the respect of the players, which is nice. But yeah, I’m most curious about how he’ll handle things when they go bad. Because there’s no way they don’t go bad at some point.
[mb21] : Good to hear he’s not going to run as much as he made it sound early in spring training. That was troubling. I’m sure he looked at 7 SB and 8 CS and thought, wait, this team cannot run. At all.
[mb21] : Especially if they go bad early on. Teams tend to fall apart in the clubhouse when it’s starting to feel like a very long 162 game schedule.
[aisle 424] : So he either has a good learning curve or he’s just a flip-flopper

Continue reading “Obstructed View Opening Day Roundtable – part 1”

Platooning 101

The day everyone has looked forward to is here. Obstructed View is no longer something we can hype though we had little to no intention of doing that. It just became fun to do it. Now we have to live up to the hype or face critisim and ridicule by the thousands of fans we raised expectations for. Anyway, this may be the first post of mine that some of you will read. I hope it won’t be the last.

There’s always a surprisingly large amount of business that teams tend to the final week of spring training and this one has been no different. Before I try to explain why you should read anything I write, I want to get started as there’s a lot to say right now. I’ve been holding my breath on Another Cubs Blog over the last week as I didn’t want to publish any fresh content. I like stats and will try to explain them at some point, but the Cubs may be using two platoons this year, which is rare enough, but the type of platoons they’re using is quite unique.

As of now, the Cubs are planning to platoon Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin in right field. That much is a certainty. It also is beginning to appear as though the Cubs are going to platoon Jeff Baker and Darwin Barney. This I may be wrong about, but we’ll know for sure soon enough.

I’m a big fan of platoons. I think managers underuse the platoon these days just so players can be called every day players. Let’s face it, some aren’t every day guys. That’s not a bad thing. It’s just a fact. I’m not convinced that Kosuke Fukudome isn’t an every day player, but that’s not what this post is about.

The reasons managers platoon players is so they can have the platoon advantage at the plate. This is a new blog and there are new readers so just to be sure, the platoon advantage is when the hitter is facing an opposite armed pitcher. A right handed batters vs a left handed pitcher is having the platoon advantage. A righty vs a righty gives the platoon advantage to the defense (pitching team). The platoon advantage is important because all players hit differently against lefties and righties. It’s very rare to find a player who has accrued a very high total of plate appearances who hits lefties as well as righties. A right handed batter is almost always going to hit a left-handed pitcher better than he does a righty. This assumes a large enough sample of the numbers to become reliable. Over the course of a single season, we’ll see variations. Over the course of a long career, we’ll find the player’s platoon splits to be quite similar to the league as a whole.

I don’t want to dig too deep into numbers at this point, the platoon difference is roughly .030 points of wOBA (weighted on-base average). This means that a righty whose true talent level is about .350 vs lefties it’s probably about .320 vs righties. Every player has a different platoon split and we figure this out based on their own platoon splits and the size of the sample vs each pitcher. I’m not going to bother with that right now so we’re going to stick with the rough average of 30 points difference. Thereabouts.

It’s clear why managers use the platoon or pinch hit late in games so they can get a lefty up vs a righty. There’s a significant difference between .350 and .320. One is below average while the other is considerably higher than average.

One of the platoons I most remember the Cubs using was in 1989. Dwight Smith and Lloyd McClendon shared duties in left field and it worked like a charm. Smith was the lefty so he played primarily against righties while McClendon played vs the lefties.

Somewhere between 65% and 70% of the plate appearances in baseball are against right handed pitchers. If you have a right-handed player who doesn’t hit righties very well, you look to platoon him with a lefty. This way you have the platoon advantage in well over 80% of the plate appearances. Teams are going to bring in relievers to face same-sided batters and teams can’t have the advantage 100% of the time. The righty part of the platoon will play some vs righties, though not much. That’s inevitable, but you can maximize the advantage by platooning.

However, Tyler Colvin and Kosuke Fukudome are both left handed batters. They are going to have the advantage about 65% to 70% of the time, which is of course good, but it’s much less than it would be if you platooned a righty and lefty. Furthermore, since both are lefties, you assume their splits will be similar. In other words, if Tyler Colvin is a .330 wOBA hitter and Fukudome is at .340, we’d expect their splits to be similar, but Fukudome’s would be higher. As a result, you’re better off playing Fukudome vs all pitchers. If you think Colvin is better then Colvin should be the everyday player.

There are examples where this may be untrue. Tyler Colvin actually hit lefties almost as well in the minor leagues as he hit righties. Fukudome also hit lefties well in Japan and with the exception of 2009, he’s hit lefties every bit as good here as he has hit righties. I could see an argument to be made that you may be better off with Colvin at the plate vs lefties than righties, but it’s hard for me to believe there’s much of a difference.

Then we have to add the fact that players who don’t play every day perform worse than they would if they were starting. Regular playing time is in fact something that improves performance slightly. We’re not only limiting the percentage at which the team has the platoon advantage, but also lowering the performance levels of each player relative to what he’d do as a starter.

These are the reasons that teams rarely platoon lefties with lefties or righties with righties. Oddly enough, the Cubs just may be doing that at two separate positions in 2011. I haven’t looked, but I can’t think of a single team that has ever done that. I would be surprised if any team ever entered the season with two platoons consisting of same-sided ballplayers.

However, there is a reason that I haven’t yet mentioned. Age. Consider that Tyler Colvin just broke into the big leagues last season and has yet to prove he can play every day. He’s not exactly a star player, but he’s still relatively young. Darwin Barney is also a young player. While these platoons may seem odd, and they certainly do, the fact each consists of a player who is young-ish leads me to believe that 1) Quade isn’t making the decisions and 2) the Cubs are keeping an eye on the future.

Unfortunately, they also traded half their prospects for Matt Garza so it’s a little contradictory to say the least. I don’t know what the Cubs are doing. I haven’t known what they are doing since mid-season 2009. I’m sure I’ll write more about this in the future, but even in the down seasons prior to that there appeared to be a clear plan with this organization. So I just don’t know what the team is doing anymore.

I’ve tried like hell to figure it out over the last 18 to 20 months, but I’m afraid it won’t happen.

Continue reading “Platooning 101”