kyung min na – Obstructed View

How good is Anthony Rizzo?

Not long after the Cubs hired Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, the two traded Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates. Rizzo had just completed his age 21 season with the Padres and to say it didn't go well would be putting it nicely. Still, he had hit well in the minor leagues and obviously Theo and Hoyer loved what this kid had to offer.

Rizzo was sent to AAA Iowa to begin the season and hit the crap out of the ball. He was promoted to Chicago midway through the season and put together a very strong season. He turned 23 in early August, but for baseball purposes it was his age 22 season (age as of June 30th). It was an old age 22 season, but still 22 according to the way people have traditionally organized it.

For the purposes of much of this post, I'm going to ignore the 51 OPS+ over 153 plate appearances in 2011. Instead, I'm primarily going to focus on the 368 PA of 119 OPS+ baseball. I was curious where that season would rank among first basemen at a similar age if his 2012 was the only season he had.

The question is, what criteria do we use to compare his 2012 to historical results? I went with careers spanning multiple seasons on Baseball Reference's Play Index. It was the first choice to make. Then I had to pick age and obviously we'd want to include younger players because it's even more impressive to do what Rizzo did (or even close to it) while being younger than he was. I also wanted to include the age 23 season for players because Rizzo was close to that and because there really isn't a whole lot of difference between the two. 16-23 it is.

I wanted the first part of a player's career since I'm ignoring Rizzo's 2011 and treating 2012 as his first season. Knowing I'd have to choose plate appearances later, I decided to go with a player's first season through his third season. I'm interested in how he compares to 1st basemen so while a shortstop hitting even close to as well as he did would be far more impressive, it's not relevant to what I want to know.

I decided to go with a player who played at least half his games at 1st base figuring if the player could still play half his games elsewhere, he might be a better overall player, but also a player who will eventually play first base full time. I could probably safely reduce that to 25% and still get a pool of players who were primarily 1st basemen throughout their careers.

Rizzo had 368 plate appearances last season so I used a minimum of 300 PA.

Here's the list:

Player	Age	From	To	PA	OPS+
Johnny Mize	23-23	1936	1936	469	162
Mark McGwire	22-23	1986	1987	699	157
Jimmie Foxx	17-23	1925	1931	2568	154
Ron Blomberg	20-23	1969	1972	564	150
Jim Bottomley	22-23	1922	1923	748	150
Alvin Davis	23-23	1984	1984	678	147
Lou Gehrig	20-23	1923	1926	1235	144
Willie McCovey	21-23	1959	1961	900	142
Hank Greenberg	19-23	1930	1934	1167	140
Jeff Bagwell	23-23	1991	1991	650	139
Will Clark	22-23	1986	1987	1046	139
Don Mattingly	21-23	1982	1984	980	139
Orlando Cepeda	20-23	1958	1961	2543	137
Earl Torgeson	23-23	1947	1947	487	136
Babe Herman	23-23	1926	1926	554	136
Prince Fielder	21-23	2005	2007	1391	132
James Loney	22-23	2006	2007	486	132
John Mayberry	19-23	1968	1972	931	132
Hal Trosky	20-23	1933	1936	2083	132
Eddie Murray	21-23	1977	1979	2043	131
Bob Robertson	20-23	1967	1970	594	128
Stuffy McInnis	18-23	1909	1914	2545	128
Kent Hrbek	21-23	1981	1983	1246	127
Ed Konetchy	21-23	1907	1909	1655	127
George Sisler	22-23	1915	1916	939	123
George Scott	22-23	1966	1967	1322	122
Don Hurst	22-23	1928	1929	1167	122
Vic Saier	20-23	1911	1914	2060	122
Jason Thompson	21-23	1976	1978	1823	121
Joe Hauser	23-23	1922	1922	408	121
Joe Judge	21-23	1915	1917	901	121
John Olerud	20-23	1989	1992	1507	120
Keith Hernandez	20-23	1974	1977	1321	120
Dick Hoblitzell	19-23	1908	1912	2724	117
Bob Chance	22-23	1963	1964	493	116
Wally Pipp	20-23	1913	1916	1211	116
Ike Davis	23-23	2010	2010	601	115
Freddie Freeman	20-22	2010	2012	1279	113
Nate Colbert	20-23	1966	1969	595	113
Joe Cunningham	22-22	1954	1954	356	113
Fred Merkle	18-23	1907	1912	2066	112
Billy Butler	21-23	2007	2009	1510	111
Justin Morneau	22-23	2003	2004	427	109
Dick Gernert	23-23	1952	1952	407	109
Chris Chambliss	22-23	1971	1972	957	108
Bill White	22-22	1956	1956	568	108
George Burns	21-23	1914	1916	1507	108
Al Oliver	21-23	1968	1970	1119	107
Tony Horton	19-23	1964	1968	1280	107
Pat Burrell	23-23	2000	2000	474	106
Brad Fullmer	22-23	1997	1998	590	106
Hal Chase	22-23	1905	1906	1138	105
Darin Erstad	22-23	1996	1997	834	104
John Ellis	20-23	1969	1972	729	104
Chris Davis	22-23	2008	2009	736	103
Travis Lee	23-23	1998	1998	630	103
Mike Ivie	18-23	1971	1976	912	103
Art Shires	21-23	1928	1930	762	103
Joe Nealon	21-22	1906	1907	1051	103
Mark Teixeira	23-23	2003	2003	589	102
David Ortiz	21-23	1997	1999	402	102
Sean Casey	22-23	1997	1998	363	102
Ted Kluszewski	22-23	1947	1948	408	102
Daric Barton	21-23	2007	2009	799	101
Tony Perez	22-23	1964	1965	335	101
Ed Stevens	20-23	1945	1948	1059	101
Eric Hosmer	21-22	2011	2012	1161	100

Dick Hoblitzell's name is bolded in red because Anthony Rizzo's 2012 would slide right above him and right after Keith Hernandez. If that's all Rizzo had done so far, it would be good for 35th. However, Rizzo's 2012 season had just 368 PA and only Joe Cunningham, Sean Casey and Tony Perez had fewer plate appearances than Rizzo in 2012. The number of plate appearances are also important because if a player has 2000 plate appearances prior to 23 then he was probably more qualified to play than someone who had just 368. Rizzo, though, has over 500 in his career so far so we have to consider that, but there are still many on the list with more than he had.

If we were interested, and clearly I am since I'm writing this, we could take a look at those who performed offensively most similar to Rizzo did in 2012 to get an idea of how he might perform over the next 5 seasons (years before free agency). Here it is:

	OPS+	Notes
George Sisler	160	HOF
George Scott	101
Don Hurst	112
Vic Saier	118	played only 4 more seasons over 5 years
Jason Thompson	128
Joe Hauser	117	played only 5 more years over 7 years
Joe Judge	120
John Olerud	137
Keith Hernandez	135
Dick Hoblitzell	106	played only 6 more years
Bob Chance	88	played only 4 more seasons over 5 years
Wally Pipp	105
Ike Davis	NA	Active player

One Hall of Famer in George Sisler and only Bob Chance was worse than average at the plate over the next 5 years. The average OPS+ of these players from the first table was 120 and over the next 5 years the average was 119. I don't believe first basemen have generally had long careers, but I thought it was interesting that in this group, 4 of the players played less than 6 years after the age of 23 and 2 of them didn't even make it 5 seasons.

Prior to now, we've been ignoring Rizzo's 2011 season. So far in his career he has a 100 OPS+, which puts him right after Eric Hosmer on the first list, which is why I cut the list off where I did. Looking at the entire career we find he'd rank 68th on the original list. Several of these guys weren't your average 1st baseman. They piled up the triples and stolen bases, something that Rizzo will not ever do. He has 1 career triple and only 5 stolen bases. That's not a bad thing, but many of these guys were adding value in ways that Rizzo never will.

If we consider the whole career and now look at the most similar players, this is what we get for production over their next 5 years.

	OPS+	Notes
Sean Casey	111
Ted Kluszewski	118
Daric Barton	101	3 seasons
Tony Perez	131	HOF
Ed Stevens	31	played only 1 season
Eric Hosmer	NA
Anthony Rizzo	NA
Paul Konerko	114
Elbie Fletcher	130
Ken Harrelson	118
Billy Goodman	106
Joe Pepitone	109

The average of this group is 107.

I'm willing to give Rizzo's 2011 less weight than we typically would, but it still happened. What this means is that I think he'll do better than this group, but maybe not as well as the earlier group. But Rizzo is just one player so he could end up being in the Hall of Fame like 2 comparables. He could end up being out of the league for various reasons in short time too. It's probably somewhere in the middle. Expecting a Hall of Fame career is a bit riduclous and anticipating his career ends soon is equally ridiculous.

Revisiting the Cubs offseason transactions

Since the Cubs changed management this past offseason I thought it might be fun to look back at the transactions and see how they've turned out so far. Keep in mind these are a final analysis. There's still much time left for some of these deals to look different than they currently do. I considered breaking this into parts, but decided to post it at once instead.

NOVEMBER

► November 30, 2011: the Cubs signed David DeJesus

Contract: 2-year, $10 million. The pact pays DeJesus $4.25 million each in 2012 and 2013. There is a $6.5 million option for 2014 or a $1.5 million buyout.

At the time: DeJesus was worth $15.2 million over 2 years using CAIRO, Bill James and Oliver projections (as well as an increase to them due to him switching leagues). This was prior to any projection for him as a Cub. The PECOTA projection had him worth 1.8 WARP in 2012 and 1.1 WARP in 2013 so it closely matches our early estimate. Picking up the option was probably not going to happen unless DeJesus exceeded expectations.

Early analysis: DeJesus was going to help improve the Cubs defense and baserunning, which had been horrible for some time. He was a solid bat coming off a down season so there was even a reason to think he might actually exceed expectations. Considering the cost, there was really nothing to dislike about the contract.

Performance: He's played in 96 games and about one-third of them have come in CF. He's hit .262/.352/.378. His .320 wOBA comes out to a 95 wRC+, which is the exact same as it was in 2011. UZR thinks he's been a below average fielder (-4) and his UBR only slightly better than average on the bases (0.4). His DRS is -4 in CF and 0 in RF so the two metrics are in agreement about his defense (FRAA has him at -2.9 also).

Overall he's been worth .7 fWAR, .4 rWAR and .2 WARP (Prospectus). Average them if you wish and you get .4. PECOTA projects another .5 WARP the rest of the way, which would give him .7 WARP on the season. We should probably expect by the end of the season he'll be just above 1 WAR, which makes him worth the money he was paid in 2012 and not likely worth the additional $5.75 million he's owed. Things could change by this time next year, but for now this hasn't been a very good deal for the Cubs.

DECEMBER

► December 8, 2011: Cubs trade Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu for Casey Weathers and Ian Stewart

Contracts: Colvin could be arbitration eligible after this season, but is currently making about league minimum. DJ LeMahieu would be under club control for 6 years. Stewart was 2nd year arbitration eligible and had already agreed to a 1-year, $2.2 million contract. Casey Weathers had no MLB service time.

At the time: The trade included 3 picks drafted in the 1st round. The two the Cubs acquired were top 10 picks and Colvin was selected 13th overall. LeMahieu was picked in the 2nd round.

Early Analysis: I don't remember having much to say about this trade. I know it wasn't a great trade and it wasn't a bad trade at the time. It was just OK. I think Baseball Prospectus said at the time that there were no winners except for the players who get to move to new teams. The Cubs probably got a bat that was a safer bet to produce, but it came at a higher price.

Performance: Ian Stewart has hit .201/.292/.335 (.265 wOBA, 58 wRC+) and is done for the season. Both DRS and UZR agree he's a slightly better than average fielder, which is a huge upgrade from Aramis Ramirez. However, Ramirez more than made up for his defensive issues and Stewart has not come close. His FWAR is 0.0, rWAR is -0.1 and WARP is -0.7 (average of -0.2). Considering the salary, the Cubs haven't come close to getting what they've paid for and he's now someone who is likely to be non-tendered.

Casey Weathers spent much of the season injured and overall he's in AA at the age of 27. He's thrown 28.2 innings and has an ERA of 5.97 and an FIP approaching 7. The guy walks everybody on the planet. You could face Weathers and you'd be 0-0 with a walk. Get this, Weathers has a really good strikeout rate, but his walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate. Hard to believe.

DJ Lemanieu has had a couple stints with the Rockies this season and it hasn't gone well in 31 games. He was league average at AAA, which doesn't say a whole lot.

Tyler Colvin has once again found his power stroke. In 258 PA he's batting .282/.318/.560 with a .367 wOBA, which is good for a 121 wRC+. He's played primarily in RF, but has also logged a lot of innings in CF, LF and 1B. The defensive metrics are in agreement that he's been below average. FRAA is the highest for him and it's -0.1. He's been worth 1.3 fWAR, 0.6 WARP and 0.8 rWAR (average 0.9). He'll surely regress some (ZiPS has him at .338 wOBA the rest of the way compared to .303 for Stewart).

This is a trade the Cubs would like to have a do over on. It's not one of those trades they'll regret forever. Tyler Colvin has proven he belongs on an MLB roster although he may not be an everyday starter. Factoring in the salary you'd obviously prefer the left handed hitting outfielder who is working at league minimum to someone like Stewart. Add in the fact that Lemahieu might actually provide some depth to an organization at some point and the secondary players involved in the trade make this an obvious win for the Rockies. Not a huge win, but a win.

This trade took place on the final day of the Winter Meetings (Rule 5 Draft). The Cubs also took Lendy Castillo from some organization who probably doesn't regret losing him one damn bit.

► December 12, 2011: Cubs sign Joe Mather

Contract: He's not yet arbitration eligible. He entered the season with just over 1 year of service time and won't be eligible for arbitration until 2014.

At the time: Mather was signed along with 9 other players over a 3 week span in December for the purpose of filling out their spring training roster. Even if he managed to make the team he wasn't expected to provide much of anything.

Early Analysis: There was none. It was a transaction that most people though was irrelevant along with the many others they signed.

Performance: Mather has hit .221/.273/.356. His wOBA is .273 and his wRC+ is 63. He's played all around the field, but primarily at CF and 3B. He's chipped in 51 innings in LF, 7 in RF and all of 2 at 1st. His defense has been average to a bit below average on the season. His fWAR and WARP are both -0.4 and his rWAR is -1.3. The average of the 3 is -0.7. He's only been on the roster because the Cubs suck and the only reason I'm even including him here is because he's stuck at the MLB level all season, but that's not an indication of how he's played. If they were paying him anything more than league minimum he'd be gone and even at league minimum he barely deserves the shot he was given.

► December 23, 2011: Cubs trade Sean Marshall to the Reds for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes

Contract: Marshall was owed $3.1 million in 2012. The Reds subsequently extended him through the 2015 season, but that's irrelevant to us. Wood had just over a year of service time so was still a couple years of service time away from being arbitration eligible. Sappelt had 5 to 6 more years before free agency and Torreyes is in High A.

At the time: Before it was known who the two minor leaguers were, this was a fantastic trade for the Cubs. Wood only for Marshall would have been a good haul. Getting Sappelt and especially Torreyes in the deal only sweetens it.

Early Analysis: Marshall probably should have been the Cubs closer instead of Marmol over the last 2 to 3 seasons. The Cubs didn't do it and despite Marshall being a setup man, he was still damn valuable. He was just a reliever and the limited innings obviously limited his value, but the Cubs turned a relatively small trade surplus into 3 players.

Performance: Marshall has kept doing what he'd done in Chicago. He has an impressive 2.36 ERA and 2.32 FIP to go along with 1.1 fWAR. His rWAR is 1.3 and his WARP 1.0 (average 1.1). He's provided value above his salary this year to the Reds.

Travis Wood has had an up and down season. He was terrible in spring training and lost his grip on the rotation. He spent some time in AAA posting a solid, but unspectacular 3.76 FIP even though his ERA 4.57. At the big leagues he hasn't been very good overall. His 4.77 ERA looks good compared to his 5.62 FIP. That's good for -0.2 fWAR. His rWAR is -0.1 and his WARP is 0.2 (average 0.0). Wood is still 25 and there's more than enough reason to think he can contribute something over the next few seasons, but back of the rotation is probably his ceiling at this point. He might be better off as a LOOGY.

Dave Sappelt hit .256/.311/.345 at AAA this year. That's a .300 wOBA and a 71 wRC+. At 25 years old he probably doesn't have much of any career at the big league level ahead of him.

Torreyes is only 19 and already at High A where he has hit .271/.332/.399. That's a .338 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Considering how poorly he started, that's quite good. After May his OPS was just a little over .500. He had an OPS of .923 in June and .849 in July. He's kept hitting in August. Considering the age, he's had a damn good season so far.

The Cubs probably won't get much out of Wood and probably nothing from Sappelt, but they'll probably get enough from Wood to make the trade a good one by the time it ends. There's always the possibility Wood surprises though with his stuff I just wouldn't count on it. The real hope for making this as fantastic a trade as it was at the time is for Torreyes who could have a bright future in front of him.

JANUARY

► January 3, 2012: Cubs sign Reed Johnson

Contract: 1-year, $1.5 million

At the time: After hitting .309/.348/.367 (.354 wOBA, 116 wRC+) in 266 PA in 2011, re-signing Reed Johnson was a no-brainer. In 2011 his average WAR was 1.0 and as a 4th outfielder hitting primarily against lefties it was a safe bet he'd produce again.

Early Analysis: For $1.5 million there was no reason to be anything other than happy to get a guy of his quality to return.

Performance: In 183 PA Reed hit .302/.355/.444 prior to being traded to the Braves. His wOBA with the Cubs was .346 (112 wRC+) and he did exactly what the team expected (140 wRC+ vs lefties).

► January 5, 2012: Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano to Miami Marlins for Chris Volstad

Contract: Carlos Zambrano and all but the league minimum (about $17.5 million) were sent to the Marlins for Chris Volstad who somehow turned 3 mediocre to bad seasons in a $2.7 million first year arbitration salary.

At the time: The Cubs should have paid no more than about $10-11 million AND received Chris Volstad or someone like him. This was a bad trade when it was made. If you looked only at the CAIRO projections it matched up perfectly, but there were other projections. That's about the best that can be said: using one projection system the trade wasn't bad.

Early Analysis: The Cubs traded away someone who was projected to be worth about 1.1 WAR for someone who was projected to be about replacement level or maybe a little bit better. Not only that, the Cubs send the Marlins buckets of cash and had to pay Volstad more than he ever deserved. It was the Cubs who signed this contract on January 17th. I can't even imagine what Volstad was asking for. There's almost no way he would have won in arbitration. Take the chance. Offer the guy what he's worth, which is about a million bucks or less. Fuck this $2.7 million shit.

Performance: Volstad has somehow managed enough of a decent FIP (4.27) to be worth .6 fWAR. That's rather impressive considering he's given runs away for free this year. Here, take some runs. I'm Chris Volstad and I don't need them! I've got a decent FIP. Volstad's rWAR is -1.3 and his WARP is 0.0. Average them together and you get -0.2. Not surprisingly, he's been terrible and he's done while making way more money that he should have. And oh yeah, the Cubs sent a billion bucks to Miami too.

Zambrano got off a solid start this year, but his FIP at this point (4.56) matches his FIP from a year ago (4.59). He's struckout a few more batters, but walks a lot more. Z has been worth .8 fWAR, .5 rWAR and -0.2 WARP (average 0.4).

The value difference is only about a win, but the Cubs are paying $20.2 million for below replacement production.

► January 6, 2012: Cubs trade Andrew Cashner with Kyung-Min Na to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates

Contract: All the players were auto-renewal (league minimum)

At the time: How could you not love turning a relief pitcher into a 22 year old 1st basemen? I don't even care if he had half the potential that Rizzo had, you'd have to love it.

Early Analysis: The Cubs traded a former top prospect in Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo. The two other players involved were just there for the fun of it. We'll talk about them, but not much. I don't think this needs much analysis. This was an obvious win for the Cubs at the time of the trade. I'm shocked that 1) Josh Byrnes would even consider such a trade and 2) that the Padres owner would even allow it. If you get a chance to trade a highly touted pitching prospect for a highly touted position player you make that trade almost every time. You better than have an explanation why you would or wouldn't make such a trade and preferring Yonder Allonso and Andrew Cashner over Rizzo ain't one of them.

Performance: Cashner has, like always, had some injury issues. He was moved back to the rotation, which helps lessen the damage of this trade if Cashner could ever stay healthy. That's unlikely. All Rizzo has done was tear up AAA .304/.346/.528 (.369, 128). He's been worth .9 fWAR, .9 rWAR and .8 WARP in less than 150 plate appearances. He's probably not this good, but for a guy who is 22 and who will only get better he's awfully damn valuable.

Zach Cates is 22 and has split the season between High A and Low A. He's been terrible. Kyung-Min Na has been equally terrible.

► January 10, 2012: Cubs sign Paul Maholm

Contract: 1 year, $4.75 million with a club option for $6.5 million or a $0.5 million buyout (minimum earned salary would be $5.25 million)

At the time: Based on the available projections Maholm's average projected WAR was a little over 1. This gave him a value of about $6.5 million for one year.

Early Analysis: Maholm was quietly putting together a solid career in Pittsburgh. This was a good signing at the time and the projections prior to the season that I listed above underestimated his talent. Berselius ran them, as he did for other pitchers, and he came up with 2.3 WAR. What's not to like about signing a guy to produce a win when you can reasonably expect more than 2?

Performance: As Berselius has been saying throughout the season, Paul Maholm did Paul Maholm things. In 120.1 innings he didn't walk many (2.5 per 9), strikeout a lot (6 per 9), had a 3.74 ERA and 4.13 FIP. His fWAR was 1.5, rWAR was 1.4 and for some unknown reason BPro's WARP was 0.0. PECOTA also projected only .6 WARP so if you went strictly on that projection and their value metric it didn't work out so well.

Then again, the Cubs acquired one of the best pitching prospects entering the season for Maholm so yes, it worked out wonderfully. Although Arodys Vizcaino is recovering from Tommy John surgery, there's every reason to think he can bounce back and return to being the dominant pitcher he was. The question remains whether he can do that as a starter or as a reliever at the big league level. Either way, the Cubs ended up getting tremendous value for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. That trade alone more than justifies both contracts.

► January 13, 2012: Cubs sign Kerry Wood

Contract: 1 year, $3 million with a club option and no buyout

At the time: I wasn't as excited about this as a lot of Cubs fans were. I didn't think Kerry Wood deserved much of anything from the Cubs. I just didn't think he was good enough for the $4 million he wanted.

Early Analysis: What I just said can be put here too. It was only $3 million so it's not a big deal, but I'd have passed.

Performance: Wood retired in May after not pitching well early on. Presumably he didn't collect any additional paychecks so this ended up being for nothing. Cubs lost a little bit, but who really cares?

FEBRUARY

► February 2, 2012: Cubs sign Gerardo Concepcion

Contract: While the deal wasn't official until March 11, we learned in early February the Cubs and Concepcion had agreed a 5-year contract paying him $6 million. He was also added to the 40-man roster and as a result immediately began using his available option years.

At the time: This was a 20 year old who had struckout under 5 and walked just under 4 in his one year in Cuba (age 18). Giving this guy a contract worth millions was mind boggling and it was even more bizarre he'd be put on the 40-man roster.

Early Analysis: Everything about this signing was based on projection. The scouts loved him. The numbers weren't fantastic, but we only had a small sample. It was a ton of money and a huge commitment that, in my opinion, was destined to fail from the start.

Performance: I'm not sure what's worse about his performance. Is it the 70 hits allowed 52.1 innings in Low A? Is it the 30 walks (5.2 per 9, 12%)? The 28 strikeouts (4.8 per 9, 11.2%)? The 4 balks? Seriously, it's gotta be the balks. How can you balk 4 times in Low A? Among qualified pitchers (apparently somewhere around 70 innings) there is only 1 pitcher who has balked more than 4 times (David Goforth, 7). He's done so in more than twice the innings. If it's not all of that, what about the 6 home runs? This guy is fucking terrible. He makes Hayden Simpson look like Cy Young. What a shit contract at the time and it's looking even dumber now. One scout from another team who recently saw him said the Cubs keep trying to say it's the mechanics, but if you were at a junior college game and saw this guy pitch you'd leave. Even Hayden Simpson kept people in their seats at D2 games.

► February 21, 2012: Cubs trade Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz to the Boston Red Sox for Theo Epstein

Contract: Carpenter and Kurcz were auto-renewal player

At the time: The Cubs acquired one of the best GM's in the game and gave up only a relief pitcher. There are arguments that the Cubs shouldn't have even been willing to give anyone up, but losing an injury prone relief pitcher for Theo is no big deal. The Cubs hired Theo in October so he'd been on the job 4 months by this time anyway.

Early Analysis: see above

Performance: Carpenter has been injured, but Kurcz has been damn good at the age of 21 at AA. He turns 22 tomorrow and so far this year in AA he's struckout 12.9 batters per 9 though he has walked 4.8 per 9. He's struckout 32.1% of the batters faced and walked 12.1% of them. That's an excellent K-BB%. He's thrown 50.1 innings and has an ERA of 3.04 and an FIP of 3.10.

If you could sum Year One up in any way, I would probably go with this: throw crap at the wall and hope some of it sticks. While the Cubs did acquire a fantastic prospect in Anthony Rizzo, most of what they did this past offseason was rearranging the deck chairs. Along with the great trade for Rizzo, the Cubs sure acted dumb when they acquired Concepcion for about $6 million more than he was worth. Overall, you've got to be pleased with how the offseason turned out. Those expecting every transaction to turn to gold have quickly learned that isn't happening, but most of us already knew that.

Cubs trade Andrew Cashner to Padres for Anthony Rizzo

From MLBTR: The Cubs have acquired first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-hander Zach Cates from the Padres for right-hander Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na, the teams announced. The move provides the Cubs with a potential long-term first baseman and clears up first base in San Diego.

Here’s my quick take on the trade. I don’t think as highly of Rizzo as a lot of people do and I didn’t think as highly of Cashner as some did. I know little about the prospects as I begin writing this. An every day first baseman for a guy who might be a starter with injury troubles seems like a pretty good deal. When you factor in Cashner’s workload over the last 6 years, the injury he’s coming back from, it may even be likely that he’s a future reliever. Cashner didn’t have great numbers at the minor league, but was pretty good. Let’s look at the numbers now.

CAIRO is not a fan of Rizzo. It projects just over 400 PA and has him hitting .213/.289/.363, which is good for a .289 wOBA and 0.1 WAR. Oliver projects a .254/.325/.461 line over 562 PA. That’s good for a .339 wOBA and 0.8 WAR. Bill James projects a .318 wOBA. The average here is about .5 WAR.

CAIRO projects .2 WAR for Cashner while Oliver projects 1.1 WAR for Cashner and Bill James projects a ridiculous 3.36 FIP. That’s getting thrown out because it’s nowhere near a reasonable projection. Cashner had a 4.45 average projection a year ago so it’s ridiculous that one could come back at 3.36 this year. Between the other two, it’s an average .7 WAR.

Oliver has Cashner being worth 5 WAR over the 5 remaining years he’s under club control. It has Rizzo being worth 5.9 WAR. The Cubs and Padres swapped league minimum players with similar service time who are projected to be worth nearly the same amount of the next 5 years. Let’s just call this a wash. Maybe a slight edge to the Cubs given that Rizzo can play every day.

Kyung-Min Na reached AA at the age of 19, but so far in his career the outfielder has hit just .244/.335/.284. Cates doesn’t appear to be a lot better than that either. Neither prospect has much value going forward so the deal is basically this:

Cashner and his potential upside as a starting pitcher for Rizzo and his potential upside as an every day 1st baseman. Rizzo had the better minor league career and he’s younger. Despite that, this is a trade I neither like nor dislike. I’m not convinced that Bryan LaHair wouldn’t be more valuable over the next 5 years than Rizzo will be. In fact, Oliver has LaHair being worth 5.2 WAR over the next 5 years so just barely worse than Rizzo.

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