Tag: Lineup Construction

Cubs Lineup Readjustment

See, I told you it was too early to set a lineup because just a few days after this post, the Cubs did a thing:

The Cubs have agreed to sign Trey Mancini to a two-year contract, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link).  Mancini, a client of the Frontline agency, can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season if he amasses at least 350 plate appearances in the first year of the contract, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports (via Twitter).  Also from Levine, Mancini will earn $14MM in guaranteed money over the two years of the deal, and another $7MM is available in bonus clauses related to plate appearances.

Via MLBTR

The various talking heads suggest it’s straight up $7MM per season for the two years, and if Trey Mancini can get 350 plate appearances over the 2023 season, he can opt out of the contract. This gives the Cubs an obvious platoon partner for Eric Hosmer, allows them to have Matt Mervis work on his defense or whatever, and delay the next roster decision for the moment. This also potentially allows them various other options, including giving Christopher Morel the time at Iowa that he missed when he came up last season. It’s too early in the game to figure out which player they’ll boot off the roster at this time to make room for Mancini, or if they just try to outright one of the many Quad-A position players, but this is what I have as the set of players most likely to break camp with (bold meaning I think that’s a lock):

  • Catcher – Tucker Barnhart (L), Yan Gomes (R)
  • First Base – Trey Mancini (R), Eric Hosmer (L), Patrick Wisdom (R)
  • Second Base – Nico Hoerner (R)
  • Shortstop – Dansby Swanson (R)
  • Third Base – Zach McKinstry (L), Miles Mastrobuoni (L), Christopher Morel (R)
  • Left Field – Ian Happ (S)
  • Center Field – Cody Bellinger (L)
  • Right Field – Seiya Suzuki (R)
  • Bench/Designated Hitter – Nick Madrigal (R), Nelson Velázquez (R)

So that’s eight “locks” and another seven players fighting for the final five spots. Mancini’s presence does allow them a backup corner outfielder, and will reduce the number of plate appearances given to guys with obvious flaws like Patrick Wisdom. I only suggest that Hosmer, Wisdom, and the rest aren’t locks because who knows if someone in the “non-roster invite” pool makes them dispensable, but if I were a betting person (I am not), I’d say the final five are Hosmer, one of McKinstry/Mastrobuoni, Morel, Wisdom, and Madrigal.

This brings us to yet another projected lineup, this time from FOX Sports:

  1. 2B Nico Hoerner
  2. SS Dansby Swanson
  3. LF Ian Happ
  4. RF Seiya Suzuki
  5. 1B Eric Hosmer
  6. DH Trey Mancini
  7. CF Cody Bellinger
  8. 3B Christopher Morel
  9. C Tucker Barnhart

There were some comments during the various Cubs Convention sessions where they considered the possibility of using Nico at leadoff, so that’s the difference from the previous lineups I outlined. There was also some comment about Nick Madrigal of all people playing third base, which (dying laughing)…it’s admirable that he’s trying, though I seem to recall him having trouble even making throws from second base, but that’s what spring training is for I guess.

I think the good part about the FOX lineup is less Wisdom (now there’s a pun), and it appears everyone has reached a consensus about the two-thru-four hitters. It probably makes the most sense to just have Nico lead off, but I think Hosmer is hitting too high, not that anyone after Suzuki’s turn in the lineup makes you feel all that good. Let’s try some adjustments. First, against typical starters:

  1. 2B Nico Hoerner
  2. SS Dansby Swanson
  3. LF Ian Happ
  4. RF Seiya Suzuki
  5. CF Cody Bellinger
  6. DH Trey Mancini
  7. 1B Eric Hosmer
  8. 3B Christopher Morel
  9. C Tucker Barnhart

This alternates handedness from the middle of the lineup on, and the hope is that even though we have some major groundball machines towards the bottom, at least with the shift restrictions, some of those will find holes. Bellinger, Mancini, and Morel have some pop, so a little bit of lift would be nice. Here’s what I think they could do against tough lefties:

  1. 2B Nico Hoerner
  2. SS Dansby Swanson
  3. LF Ian Happ
  4. RF Seiya Suzuki
  5. 1B Trey Mancini
  6. 3B Patrick Wisdom
  7. CF Christopher Morel
  8. C Yan Gomes
  9. DH Nick Madrigal

I kind of hope the Cubs are able to find a capable center field backup to spell Bellinger every now and then and not just against tough lefties, because I’m unsure you want to rely on Morel or Happ for that, but as with the regular lineup, this one has its own sets of issues towards the bottom with likely copious amounts of ground balls and a goodly amount of swing-and-miss potential. This is, however, the bed the Cubs have made for themselves, and with them now bumping up against the first luxury tax tier, they’re not going to add anything substantial to the offense anymore (not that anyone is left to sign anyway).

Hopefully one day, the Cubs will be able to sign actual long term, elite offensive players and not guys on pillow contracts. For now, this appears to be the best we can hope for.

Probably Too Early Pre-Convention Cubs Lineup Construction

One reason this is probably too early is because of the overall feeling that the Cubs are done tinkering with the position players after they reportedly agreed to a deal with Eric Hosmer (yay) and won’t be in the running for Carlos Correa anymore since he signed with the Twins (dying laughing) and will likely just look for ways to round out the bullpen, which I think they can probably just do in-house since that seems to be the strength of the organization at the moment. I did a roster check before the holidays and I think that’s pretty much still intact, so we should be able to bounce off that for this post.

The other reason, and I am hoping that they will try something outside the box to make this happen, is that the Cubs could potentially trade for help with the bat by dealing from that pitching strength, but since I haven’t followed too many other systems (I barely have time to follow this team), I don’t feel confident to know whom they might target from another team or which team might be willing to part with intriguing prospects for some Cubs pitching redundancies, so let’s do that another time (probably when they actually make a deal and we just try to do a post-mortem).

Anyway, having a roster is great, but of course you need a starting nine to set up a batting order, and maybe even bat around every now and then if they’re lucky. Since again, the roster is pretty much what you see now, we can use this group of 13 plus two potential taxi squad dudes from the position player side (parenthetical = handedness in the box):

  • Catcher – Tucker Barnhart (L), Yan Gomes (R)
  • First Base – Matt Mervis (L), Eric Hosmer (L), Patrick Wisdom (R)
  • Second Base – Nico Hoerner (R)
  • Shortstop – Dansby Swanson (R)
  • Third Base – Zach McKinstry (L), Miles Mastrobuoni (L), Christopher Morel (R)
  • Left Field – Ian Happ (S)
  • Center Field – Cody Bellinger (L)
  • Right Field – Seiya Suzuki (R)
  • Bench/Designated Hitter – Nick Madrigal (R), Nelson Velázquez (R)

I’m going to assume that McKinstry, Mastrobuoni, and Velázquez duke it out for the final spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs decide Hosmer isn’t worth it and dump him before Opening Day (he’s league minimum anyway) but it would be nice if he didn’t completely suck. Madrigal is probably sell-low trade bait but since he’s got options remaining, I don’t think they’ll cut bait just yet and a contact bat would be nice to have.

The dudes over at Marquee (for those of you with the channel, I certainly don’t, thanks a lot Crane) had some thoughts on the Opening Day lineup as you can see via this tweet. I’ll type it up for those of you who refuse to go back to the Musk Melon hellsite.

Andy Martínez had the following:

  1. DH Nick Madrigal (dying laughing)
  2. SS Dansby Swanson
  3. LF Ian Happ
  4. RF Seiya Suzuki
  5. CF Cody Bellinger
  6. 2B Nico Hoerner
  7. 1B Eric Hosmer
  8. 3B Patrick Wisdom
  9. C Tucker Barnhart

If Madrigal is healthy and does what we think he’s supposed to do, he makes sense as a leadoff guy. The fact that even a resurgent Bellinger is batting fifth is probably not too inspiring for this lineup, and the other fact that Eric Hosmer is the number seven hitter is even worse and speaks to the Cubs failing to address the offense as we’ve discussed ad nauseum.

Tony Andracki has the following:

  1. 1B Eric Hosmer (dying laughing) again
  2. SS Dansby Swanson
  3. LF Ian Happ
  4. RF Seiya Suzuki
  5. CF Cody Bellinger
  6. 2B Nico Hoerner
  7. DH Patrick Wisdom
  8. C Tucker Barnhart
  9. 3B Christopher Morel

I find it intriguing that both gentlemen have the same 2-6 in their hypothetical lineups, and the 2-6 actually makes sense regardless of the handedness of the opposing pitcher because I believe Swanson has hit just about everywhere in the lineup but was mostly the two-hole guy with Atlanta last year, Happ and Suzuki pretty much batted back to back with each other although I think they were swapped in the order for a good chunk of it, and you can’t bat Nico any lower than sixth because *waves hands* the rest of the lineup, and also I think both Marquee guys wanted to alternate handedness if possible. I think neither guy is expecting Mervis to crack the opening day roster, but I feel like a good spring and again *waves hands* the rest of the roster will perhaps force the Cubs’ hands here.

I guess I can set up a lineup against most starters and one against tougher lefties. Let’s do the standard one first:

  1. DH Nick Madrigal (sigh I guess there aren’t many alternatives)
  2. SS Dansby Swanson
  3. LF Ian Happ
  4. RF Seiya Suzuki
  5. CF Cody Bellinger
  6. 2B Nico Hoerner
  7. 1B Eric Hosmer (but I think we’d prefer Mervis, right?)
  8. 3B Christopher Morel or McKinstry/Mastrobuoni
  9. C Tucker Barnhart

Then against the tough lefties:

  1. DH Nick Madrigal
  2. SS Dansby Swanson
  3. LF Ian Happ
  4. RF Seiya Suzuki
  5. 2B Nico Hoerner
  6. 3B Christopher Morel
  7. DH Patrick Wisdom
  8. CF Cody Bellinger or Nelson Velázquez (if he makes the roster)
  9. C Yan Gomes

I know folks like the nine-hole as the “second leadoff guy” but I’d just rather the offensive black holes at catcher don’t get any more plate appearances than are necessary.

Have at it, agree or disagree, I can’t tell you what to do.