Tag: logan watkins

Journeymen of tomorrow: Cubs minor league recap (6.16.16)

Iowa Cubs 6 @ Colorodo Springs Sky Sox 5

Four I-Cubs hitters had three hits apiece and none of them were Willson Contreras. Contreras was 1-5 with an RBI and extended his hitting streak to some number I don’t care about, but maybe you do. What I do care about is that the Cubs best catcher is catching games for the Iowa Cubs. The Cubs have a huge lead and can afford to take their time for whatever reason they think necessary, but the bottom line is that the Cubs are not fielding their best team and that bothers me whether it’s 2006, 2013 or 2016.

John Andreoli was 3-5 with a triple, RBI, run scored and 2 strikeouts. Mark Zagunis was 3-4 with 2 doubles, a walk and 2 runs scored. Jeimer Candelario was perfect at the plate. He was 3-3 with a triple, walk, RBI and run scored. He was also hit by a pitch. Logan Watkins was 3-4 with 2 RBI and a walk. He also stole 2 bases. Munenori Kawasaki was 1-3 and David Freitas was 1-5 with a double.

Rob Zastryzny was not good. He pitched 5 innings, allowed 3 hits and 3 runs, which isn’t terrible by itself, but in typical Cubs fashion, he walked 5 and struckout none. If C.J. Edwards could find the strike zone, he might replace Clayton Richard, but that’s not easy for him. He pitched a hitless 8th inning, but did allow a walk. Spencer Patton allowed a hit and struckout 2 for his 7th save.

Tennessee Smokies @ Jackson Generals (postponed)

Frederick Keys 0 @ Myrtle Beach Pelicans 1

The Pelicans only needed a run, which they scored in the 4th inning. They only need 5 hits and they improved to 34-31.

Rashad Crawford was 2-4 with a double and a strikeout. Gleyber Torres was 1-4 with a strikeout and he committed his 13th error of the season. Jason Vosler was 1-3 with a strikeout and Charcer Burks was  1-3 with a double and a strikeout.

The Pelicans took only 2 walks and struckout 13 times. Gioskar Amaya was 0-3 with 3 strikeouts.

Jake Stinnett improved to 5-3 behind a very good performance. He pitched 7 innings, allowed 8 hits and 0 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 7. Ryan McNeil picked up his 5th save of the season with 2 innings of no-hit baseball. He struckout a batter.

Stinnett was the 45th overall pick in the 2014 draft (2nd round). He hasn’t done a whole lot since being drafted. He pitched in only 11 innings in 2014 and is already 24 years old. He’s old for High A, but he’s finally putting together a decent season so there’s that.

South Bend Cubs 2 @ Dayton Dragons 3

The Cubs had runners on base all night long, but blew some opportunities to win this game. They had 9 hits and 2 walks, as well as 3 doubles and only plated 2 runs.

Ian Rice was 2-4 with a double, home run, RBI , strikeout and run scored. That was his 7th home run this year. Eloy Jimenez was 2-4 with a double, strikeout and run scored. Eddy Martinez was also 2-4 with a double and a strikeout.

The Cubs 6, 7 and 8 hitters combined to go 0-10 with an RBI. CF Roberto Caro was 2-3 with a walk and a strikeout.

Ryan Kellogg pitched well enough to win. He threw 6.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 3 runs. He didn’t walk anybody and struckout 6. He surrendered 1 home run. Scott Efforts pitched the final 1.1 innings and allowed 2 hits and a walk. He struckout a batter.

DSL Yankees1 11 @ DSL Cubs1 3

The Cubs1 had 3 runs on 3 hits and 3 errors. Luis Hidalgo was 2-3 with a home run, walk, RBI and 2 runs scored. Henderson Perez had the other hit. He was 1-3 with a walk and a strikeout. The Cubs did take 7 walks and only struckout 3 times. Jose Jules was 0-1 with an RBI and 2 walks.

Riger Fernandez dropped to 0-2 after throwing 3.2 innings and allowing 2 runs (1 earned) on 2 hits and 5 walks. He struckout 5 and gave up a home run. Charlie Sheen’s long lost brother did not do much winning. He pitched 1.1 innings, allowed 3 hits, 4 walks and 4 runs. Juan Rengifo picked right up from there. He pitched 2 innings, gave up 4 hits, 3 walks and 5 runs. The only pitcher who pitched halfway decently was Aneuris Rosario who pitched 2 innings, allowed 0 hits or runs and somehow managed to not walk anybody. He also struckout 2.

You aren’t going to win many games when you give up 9 hits and walk 12 batters.

DSL Cubs2 14 @ DSL Twins

All of the starters except their number 2 hitter, Aramis Ademan (SS) had a hit. Ademan was 0-5 with a walk, 2 strikeouts and an RBI. Let’s do some bullets.

  • Yovanny Cuevas (CF): 2-4, triple, 4 RBI, walk, 2 strikeouts, run scored
  • Miguel Amaya (1B): 2-4, RBI, walk, 2 runs scored
  • Tony Rijo (RF): 1-4, double, 2 RBI, strikeout 3 runs scored
  • Henrry Pedra (3B): 1-3, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts, 3 runs scored

Carlos Ocampo threw 4 innings, allowed 3 hits and 3 runs. He walked 3 and struckout 4. Ivan Medina picked up the win and improved to 3-0. He threw 4 innings, allowed 5 hits and a run. He walked 1 and struckout 2. Sucre Valdez struckout a batter and pitched a clean 9th.

Journeymen of tomorrow: Cubs minor league recap (6.15.16)

Iowa Cubs @ Colorodo Springs Sky Sox (Game 1)

Iowa took a 5-2 lead early on, but couldn’t hold on for the win. They dropped to 29-32.

Willson Contreras was batting 2nd and was 2-4 with a double and an RBI. Mark Zagunis continues to hit since being promoted to Iowa last week. He was 2-3 with a double, walk and run scored. Jeimer Candelario and Dan Vogelbach were each 0-2 with a walk, RBI, run scored and a strikeout.

Michael Wagner got the start and lasted 2.2 innings. He gave up 5 hits and 2 runs. He walked 3 and struckout 3. Corey Black pitched 1.1 innings of hitless and scoreless baseball. He struckout a batter. Black is a 24-year old reliever who strikes out a lot of guys, but has some control issues. I expect we’ll see him in Chicago at some point this season.

Felix Pena blew the save in spectacular fashion. In 1.1 innings, he gave up 6 hits, walked a batter, surrendered 4 runs and struckout 2. Miguel Mejia picked up the pieces and threw the final 0.2 innings.

Prior to this game, 26-year old Felix Pena had been dominating AAA batters. In 18 games totaling 29.1 innings, he had struckout 10.74 batters per 9 innings and walked only 2.76 per 9. He’d allowed just 1 home run and his ERA was 1.84 and his FIP was 2.80. This is Pena’s first year in the bullpen since 2012. The Cubs moved him to the rotation full time in 2013. He pitched well enough in that role, but has proven to be much better suited for relief.

Iowa Cubs @ Colorodo Springs Sky Sox (Game 2)

Iowa scored 3 in the 1st and then at the end of the top half of the 2nd inning, the Cubs led 12-0.

It started at the top of the order with John Andreoli who was 3-4 with 2 home runs and a walk. He drove in 4 and scored 4 runs. Logan Watkins was batting 2nd and playing SS. He was 4-5 with a double, triple, RBI and 2 runs scored. Mark Zagunis keeps improving his value with a 2-4 performance in the game. He doubled, walked, struckout, drove in a run and scored 2 runs. Dan Vogelbach was 1-1 with a home run and a walk. He left this one early after being hit by a pitch. Jeimer Candelario was 2-5 with a home run, 2 strikeouts, 3 RBI and a run scored. Juan Perez, David Freitas and Vimael Machin each added a hit. Perez tripled while Freitas hit a home run.

It was Pierce Johnson‘s return to the rotation. Johnson had been out for over a month. He threw 5 innings, allowed 5 hits and 3 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 2. I’m beginning to wonder if the Cubs have put a strikeout limit on their starting pitchers in the minor leagues.

In 5 starts for Johnson this year at AAA, it hasn’t gone too well. His best start was his second of the season and he followed that up with two consecutive games of allowing 4 runs and not making it through 5 innings. He’s allowed 23 hits in 20.2 innings so far and has given up 12 run, a home run, 10 walks and he’s struckout 22. He has a 5.23 ERA and a 3.81 FIP on the season.

Chattanooga Lookouts 1 @ Tennessee Smokies 4

Jacob Hannemann was 1-4 with a home run and a strikeout. That was Hannemann’s 8th home run of the season. Chesny Young was 3-4 with 2 RBI. Victor Carotin was 1-4 and Billy McKinney was 0-3. Cael Brockmeyer and Bijan Rademacher were each 2-4.

Jen-Ho Tseng improved to 2-2 with 6 strong innings. He allowed 5 hits and a run while striking out 2 and walking 1. Stephen Perakslis picked the 7th and allowed a hit and a walk while striking out a batter. Jose Rosario picked up the 2 inning save. He didn’t allow any hits or runs and walked a batter. He also struckout 1.

Frederick Keys 5 @ Myrtle Beach Pelicans 4

Rashad Crawford was 2-4 with a double, RBI and strikeout. He also scored a run. Ian Happ was 3-4 with a double, RBI and strikeout. Daniel Spingola was 2-4 with a run scored. Gleyber Torres pinch hit and was 0-1.

Jeremy Null fell to 2-3. He pitched 5 innings, allowed 9 hits and 5 runs. He didn’t walk anybody and to the surprise of nobody who has been paying attention, only struckout 1. Daury Torrez pitched 2.1 innings, allowed 2 hits and no runs. He walked a batter and struckout 2. Jordan Minch finished the game off with 1.2 innings of 1-hit baseball. He didn’t allow any runs and struckout 2.

South Bend Cubs 7 @ Dayton Dragons 2

The Cubs improved to 39-25 and are with a few games of nailing down a playoff spot at the end of the season.

The Cubs had 11 hits in this one, but only 2 extra-base hits. Carlos Sepulveda was 2-4 with a double, 2 RBI and a run scored. P.J. Higgins was 2-5 with 2 strikeouts and Ian Rice was 1-5 with a double, RBI and run scored. Eloy Jimenez was 3-5 with an RBI, strikeout and run scored. Donnie Dewees, Eddy Martinez and Josh Silver each had hits.

Adbert Alzolay improved to 5-3 behind 7 very good innings. He allowed just 3 hits and 2 runs and a home run. He walked none and struckout 5. John Williamson pitched a clean 8th. He struckout a batter. Craig Brooks struckout 2 in a perfect 9th inning.

DSL Cubs1 4 @ DSL Yankees1 1

The Cubs1 team improved to 4-5 with this 4-1 win over the Yankees1.

DH Jose Gutierrez led the game off and was 3-5 with a triple, 2 RBI, a run scored and a strikeout. Jose Jules was 3-3 with a triple and a walk. The following players each had 1 hit: Jonathan Sierra, Richard Nunez, Samir Lara, Raymond Pena and Rafael Narea. Sierra and Narea each walked.

Eury Ramos threw 4 innings, allowed 4 hits, a run, walked 4 and struckout 2. Jose Mac Donna threw the next 4 inning and allowed just 2 hits. He didn’t allow any runs, didn’t walk anybody and struckout 4. Elvis Diaz picked up the save with 1 inning of work. He allowed a hit and struckout a batter.

DSL Twins 3 @ DSL Cubs2 5

The Cubs2 improved to 5-4 after this win.

Everybody in the lineup except for a replacement with only 1 plate appearance had a hit.

Faustino Carrera threw 6 great innings. he allowed 3 hits and an unearned run. He walked a batter and struckout 8. He did not get the memo. Omar Ventura threw 2 innings, allowed 3 hits and no runs. He walked 2 and struckout 2. Jhon Romero pitched the 9th and allowed a hit and 2 runs (1 earned). He didn’t walk or strikeout anybody.

Cubs Minor League Recap

Memphis Redbirds 5 @ Iowa Cubs 6

Willson Contreras was not in the lineup after injuring his foot, but it does not sound serious. He's expected back in the lineup soon and was said to be day to day. Even with his absence and Albert Almora's promotion to MLB, the Iowa Cubs still won. They're now 29-27. 

Arismendy Alcantar was 1-3 with a walk, RBI and 2 strikeouts. Munenori Kawasaki was 2-4 with an RBI, walk, and a strikeout. Matt Murton was 2-2 with a double and 2 RBI.

Since it sounds like the Cubs are planning to use Almora is more of a backup role, I'm kind of surprised they didn't call up Murton instead. The entire reason guys like Murton are on the roster in Des Moines is for situations like these. I certainly don't think a few weeks or so (hopefully) as a backup is going to cause any future problems with Almora's game, but I really would prefer he play every day. He is a guy with an obvious hole in his game that can and will be exploited at the MLB level. If he's not going to play every day at the MLB level, it's probably best to let him play every day at the minor league level. Oh well. I'm not in charge of these things.

Dan Vogelbach continues to slump. He was 0-3 with a walk and a strikeout. Juan Perez, Kristopher Negron, David Freitas and Logan Watkins each had a hit. 

Michael Wagner threw 4 innings and allowed 4 hits while walking 4 and striking out 7. He limited the Redbirds to just 3 runs despite all the baserunners. Jean Machi got the win despite giving up 2 runs and 4 hits in 2 innings of work. Armando Rivero, Felix Pena and Spencer Patton shut down the Redbirds in the 7th, 8th and 9th inning. It was Patton's 6th save and he struckout 2.

Tennessee Smokies 1 @ Mississippi Braves 5

The Smokies only had a run on 3 hits so this will be quick. Mark Zagunis was 1-3 with a walk and he scored the only run. Victor Caratini was 1-3 with a walk. Kelly Dugan was 1-1. 

Paul Blackburn got the start and the loss. He threw 5.2 innings, gave up 9 hits and 5 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 3. Blackburn still has a pretty looking ERA, but once you get past that, it's just mediocre at best. His strikeout rate is less than 5.5 per 9 and at around 15% of the batters faced. His walk rate is good, but even Kyle Hendricks struckout many more batters than this at this point in his career. 

Jose Rosario threw 1.1 innings, allowed a hit and struckout 3. David Berg pitched an inning and allowed a couple hits and struckout a batter.

Potomac Nationals 3 @ Myrtle Beach Pelicans 4 (Game 1)

Rashad Crawford led off and was 2-4 with an RBI and a run scored. Gleyber Torres has really turned around his awful start with another 2-4 performance. He scored 2 runs, too. He's now putting together an impressive season once again for a 19 year old shortstop in High A.

Prior to yesterday's games  he's hitting .261/.342/.438 with a .360 wOBA and 122 wRC+. His walk rate is back up to a really good 10.3% and his strikeout rate is also back down to a pretty decent 22.3%. His ISO is the best it's been in his career except for that 32 PA stop in short-season A ball. It's .177 and he's done all of this with a BABIP of only .324 compared to the .373 he had hast year in A ball. He's already hit 6 home runs, which is one more than he had in his entire career. He has 10 stolen bases. 

Ian Happ was 1-2 with an RBI and 2 walks. Jason Vosler and Jeffrey Baez were each 1-3 with an RBI. 

Erick Leal improved to 8-2 with 6 pretty good innings. He allowed 5 hits, walked a batter and struckout 3. He surrendered 2 runs. 

Tommy Thorpe gave up a home run and retired one batter before Ryan McNeil came in to get his 3rd save. 

Potomac Nationals 3 @ Myrtle Beach Pelicans 4 (Game 2)

Rashad Crawford was 1-3 with an RBI while Gleyber Torres was 0-1 with 2 walks and a run scored. Ian Happ was 1-1 with a double, 2 walks and a run scored. It was Happ's 10th double. Gioskar Amaya, Daniel Lockhart and Trey Martin each had 1 hit. 

Jeremy Null nearly threw a complete game. He pitched 6.2 innings, allowed 6 hits and 3 runs. He walked no one and struckout 6. He did give up 2 home runs. Jordan Minch got the one-out save. 

Dayton Dragons 3 @ South Bend Cubs 4

The Cubs took 9 walks and they had 11 hits, but managed only 4 runs. That's a little impressive, but not in a good way even though the game went 12 innings. Below are the number of times each player in the lineup reached base and for what:

Kyle Miller threw 5 innings, allowed 4 hits and 3 runs. Only 2 of them were earned and he walked a batter and struck one out. Pedro Araujo threw 3 innings, allowed only one hit and struckout 2. John Williamson threw 1.2 innings, allowed a hit and a walk while striking out 2. James Norwood got the win with 2.1 innings of work. He allowed a hit and 2 walks. He struckout 3. 

DSL Rangers1 7 @ DSL Cubs1 0

Yonathan Perlaza (SS) was 3-4 with a triple and a strikeout. Jose Gutierrez (LF) was 1-4 and Jose Rojas (1B) was 1-3. Those were all 5 of their hits. 

Eury Ramos started the game and pitched 4 innings. He allowed 4 hits and 3 runs. He didn't strike anybody out and didn't walk anybody either. Edison Novas got 3 innings of work and allowed 3 hits and 2 runs. Miguel Estevez allowed 2 runs and 3 hits in 2 innings of work. 

DSL Cubs2 @ DSL Dodgers1 Postponed

Cubs Minor League Update (6.2.16)

Iowa Cubs 5 @ Oklahoma City Dodgers 4

With the win last night, the I-Cubs sit a game below .500. Maybe that's why Willson Contreras is still on their roster. I agree with Myles. It's time to question whether or not the Cubs are really fielding their best 25-man roster. That's a pretty cool thing to be questioning when you've got the best record in baseball and the best record the organization has had since 1907. 

Contreras did Contreras things. He was 2-3 with a double and a couple runs batted in. Dan Vogelbach was 2-4 with a double, triple and two runs scored. What these two teammates are doing to PCL pitching is impressive. I'm not sure either have much left to prove in the minor leagues. A stronger case can be made that Vogelbach does, but he's also got nowhere to play on the Chicago Cubs. Contreras does. 

Albert Almora is not to be ignored. He was 1-3 with 2 RBI. Arismendy Alcantara and Logan Watkins each added a hit for good measure. Alcantara's was a triple. 

Jackson Generals 4 @ Tennessee Smokies 3

The Smokies fell to 23-39 in this rain-shortened game. They only completed the mandatory 5 innings. The Smokies had 9 hits in these 5 innings, but only 1 of them was an extra base hit. Mark Zagunis was 3-3 with a HR and he drove in all 3 runs. Chesny Young was 2-3 and Billy McKinney was 1-2. 

Duane Underwood has not gotten off to a great start this year. Prior to the start last night, Underwood has struckout 6.2 batters per 9 and walked 4.9. He'd given up quite a few home runs and his ERA was 5.19 while his FIP was 5.69. Both of those are going up after this start.

Underwood threw all 5 innings, so he technically had a complete game. He allowed 7 hits and 4 runs on 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. That's about the best strikeout rate he's had, but he also allowed a home run. He doesn't turn 22 until the end of July so he's very young and hopefully there's still considerable room for improvement. The scouts have liked him despite subpar strikeout and walk rates. To be fair, his walk rate last season in High A was decent (2.95). 

Myrtle Beach Pelicans 6, Salem Red Sox 3

Rashad Crawford led off and was 4-5 with a triple and a strikeout. He drove in 2 and scored 2. Gleyber Torres was 1-4 and so was Ian Happ. Happ also took a walk. Yasiel Balaguert doubled in a run and scored a run. He was 1-5. Jason Vosler also drove in a run and scored a run. He was 1-4. Gioskar Amaya got on base 3 times. He was 1-2 with a couple of walks. 

Erick Leal got the win and improved to 7-2. he threw 5 innings, allowed 3 hits and a run. He walked 1 and struckout 1. The run was unearned. 

Leal is just 21 years old and back in 2013 rookie league, he struckout 9.6 batters per 9 and struckout walked 1.5 per 9. It was only 48.2 innings, but the year before with the rookie league in the Diamondbacks organization he threw 73 innings, struckout 8.8 and walked 1.5. This liked like a promising pitching prospect. Then in 2014 short-season A ball that strikeout rate fell to 4.5 and walk rate increased to 2.6. Last year at South Bend the strikeout rate improved to 6.0 and walk rate also improved to 2.2, but so far this year the strikeout rate is just under 5 and walk rate just over 2. Like Underwood, he's young so hopefully he'll improve. I'm a little tired of saying that though. 

Tommy Thorpe threw 3 very good relief innings. He allowed 2 hits, no runs, walked nobody and struckout 3.

South Bend Cubs 2, Fort Wayne TinCaps 6

There were a lot of 0-fers in the the South Bend lineup. P.J. Higgins was 2-4 with a strikeout. Donnie Dewees was also 2-4. He tripled. Eloy Jimenez doubled and was 1-4. Dewees and Jimenez scored the only runs. Ian Rice had the only official RBI. He was 1-4. That's it. Everyone else went hitless. It's difficult to score a lot of runs without home runs and without several players up and down the lineup contributing.

Adbert Alzolay got the loss and dropped to 4-2 on the season. He lasted only 4 innings, allowed 5 hits and 5 runs. He walked 4 and struckout 3. Pedro Araujo threw 3 hitless innings. he walked 1 and struckout 5. 

Cubs trade Vizcaino for La Stella

For those of you keeping track, that brings Paul Maholm‘s total value to the Cubs to Tommy La Stella, but we had to throw in some IFA slot money (we got one back to make the numbers work).

The trade makes sense to me. Arodys might have a future as a power reliever, but that’s an area the Cubs are flush with. The Cubs are also flush with middle infielders, but you’re deluding yourself if you think the Cubs’ brain trust considers La Stella anything more than the first backup out of Iowa. La Stella has options, so the clear play is to option Tommy to Iowa, outright Logan Watkins from the 40-man (bringing it 37), and trying to sneak him through waivers (which he could clear, as we are at that time in the offseason when teams are making their Rule 5 protections and husbanding their 40-man spots).

La Stella is the polar opposite of Javier Baez. Javier Baez strikes out a ton; La Stella hardly ever strikes out (10.5%). Javier Baez never walks; Tommy La Stella walks a ton (10%). Javier Baez is athletic and a potential weapon at SS or 2B; La Stella can barely play 2B and is a liability anywhere else. Javier Baez might hit 40 HR in a season; La Stella might hit 4. Javier Baez is one of the top prospects in the whole game; Tommy La Stella isn’t.

I’m slightly disappointed that the return for Arodys is so low, but I imagine the Cubs really just value the 40-man spot (that they get from out-righting Watkins) more than the fringey upgrade they might get if they traded for someone else. Still, it’s hard to be mad; this trade has almost no effect either way at the MLB level, and is unlikely to ever really matter. With trades like this, you almost just have to defer to the front office’s valuation of the assets.

Journeymen of Tomorrow: The Story So Far (AAA and AA)

It’s been awhile since we’ve touched on the minor leagues this season. dmick has been busy. Seeing as I held the post of “minor league wonk” fairly recently, I thought I’d give a short synopsis of each team so far.

Iowa

Arismendy Alcantara has not been so great this year. His walk rate is down precipitously, so even though he carries a .275 average, he’s the owner of a .290 OBP. The power has shown up, especially in doubles/triples power, and it isn’t like he’s lost at the plate. I’d just like to see more power.

Javier Baez has been terrible so far. .149/.232/.311. He also leads the team in errors. It’s still quite early, but he isn’t exactly forcing the issue for the brain trust at this point.

Pet prospect Logan Watkins continues to impress in a utility role. He’s batting .265/.375/.353 in part time action; the only blemish so far is the high K rate.

Vitters is staying healthy; that’s important for him. Unfortunately, he’s also batting .196. I’m the only person on this blog who is still a believer (inasmuch as I believe he can be a major league regular or 4th OF), but it’s saying something when the FO reaches into the Iowa bag of outfielders and pulls out Chris Coghlan to replace Sweeney.

Christian Villanueva has less power this year, and he’s striking out more. Villanueva’s good 2013 put him back on the prospect map, but he’s taken a large step back this season. It’s early (of course), but he’s really struggled this year.

Kyle Hendricks has been pretty unlucky this year. He’s striking out a lot more people than he used to, which is obviously a good sign. The novice would point to his K/BB remaining pretty constant (3.7 last year, 3.7 this year) and think he hasn’t improved. This is the primary reason why K/BB is such a garbage stat. People don’t really care about the ratio, they care about how many more strikeouts a player has than walks. His K%-BB% is 18.4%, a huge improvement from last year’s 13.5%. The primary problem Hendricks has faced this season is an atypically low strand rate. It’s 61% this year, and his career number is more like 77%. You would expect nibblers like Kyle to have a lower and lower strand rate as they climb the ladder, but not this low. When that rebounds, his ERA will too (and his FIP is 2.57).

Pet Prospect Tsuyoshi Wada has been insane this season. 0.64 WHIP, 0.57 ERA, 37 K in 31.1 innings. If a SP gets traded or hurt, Wada has to be the next man up. If he isn’t, there is no justice.

Eric Jokisch has given up the longball this year but little else. His 1.19 WHIP will play, as will his 6.16 innings per start. Most impressive are his 5 walks in 37 innings.

Alberto Cabrera has been dynamite for the I-Cubs this year.

Tennessee

Jorge Soler is working his way back from his latest injury. His next injury is scheduled for May 14th.

I had a twitter spat with Sahadev Sharma and Harry Pavlidis last week about Kris Bryant. I said that I wouldn’t give Bryant a pitch in the ZIP of the plate. They said I didn’t get the purpose of the minor leagues and you wouldn’t want to admit defeat in any case. I maintain that pitching smart is still a part of development; pitching to Kris Bryant isn’t smart. He’s batting .295/.417/.543. He’s striking out too much, but who gives a shit. Kris Bryant is the best hitter in the Cubs minor league system. He’s also proving the critics at 3B right, and a move to RF is probably imminent. The little I’ve seen of Tennessee this year has been Bryant just not looking comfortable at third.

I told Sahadev that if I have to choose between pitching to Bryant or pitching to Rafael Lopez, I’m pitching to Lopez every time. Of course, Lopez has a higher OPS (.977 to .960) on the season than Bryant now. Rafael is on fire, turning in the best performance of a Cubs minor-leaguer this season. .310/.456/.521 gets a lot of people to notice.

Pet Prospect Stephen Bruno is working his way back from an injury last year, but still hitting ok. .250/.370/.369, mainly at 2B.

We can hopefully exhale about C.J. Edwards. His injury does not appear to be serious (with pitchers, they aren’t serious until they suddenly are). He’s been predictably sublime this season.

Corey Black is walking everyone right now. If he pitched against Mike Olt, I wonder what would happen (Mike Olt strikes out on 4 pitches).

Ivan Pineyro has been sturdy this year, but nothing special.

Armando Rivero is in AA for no reason. He is, right now, a MLB quality reliever. He’ll embarrass the minor leagues until he’s called up.

I thought Pierce Johnson was broken when he walked 8 in one game. Since then, he quieted down and delivered a yeoman’s performance yesterday. He’s walked more than he’s fanned. That’s not so good. I wasn’t as high on Johnson as everyone else was last year, and I think he’s showing his true colors now, more-or-less. I think I’d take at least 3 pitching prospects in our org over him right now (Tseng, Edwards, Blackburn), and there’s a possibility of a few more.

Cubs Minor League Recap: 4-15-14

I’ve not done these for several days and the reason is not important.

Iowa Cubs

Matt Szczur, Arismendy Alcantara and Josh Vitters were a combined 0-12 at the top of the I-Cubs batting order. Chris Coghlan was 1-3 with a walk and Chris Valaika was 2-3 with a double. Logan Watkins and Eli Whiteside each added hits.

Carlos Pimentel got the start and that’s about all that’s worthy of saying about his performance. He gave up 7 runs in 5 innings. He also walked 5 and struck out 5. Yoanner Negrin threw 3.1 innings and allowed 5 hits and a run. Marcus Hatley pitched the final 0.2 innings and struck both batters out.

Tennessee Smokies (Postponed)

Daytona Cubs

Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-4 with an RBI and Tim Saunders had a big day going 3-4 with a couple of doubles. Nither Jeimer Candelario or Dan Vogelbach did anything to help their slow starts. Each was 0-4 and Candelario struck out 3 times. Rock Shoulders was 2-4 with a double and home run. Bijan Radenmacher and Willson Two L’s Contreras was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts.

Jose Rosario must have seen what Carlos Pimentel did and tried to one-up him. He threw 4.1 innings, allowed 7 hits and 8 runs. He only walked 2 and struck out 6. Oh, wait, that’s 6 walks and 2 strikeouts. Starling Peralta threw 2.2 innings and didn’t allow any hits and he struck out 3. Stephen Perakslis pitched the final inning and gave up 2 hits and 2 runs.

Kane County Cougars Game 1

The Cougars had only 1 run on 4 hits, but it was 1 more run than Bowling Green and 3 more hits so that’s good. Jacob Hanneman, Carlos Penalver (double), Ben Carhart and Trey Martin were the only players with hits. Yasiel Balaguert, David Bote and Will Remillard walked once each.

Paul Blackburn has recovered nicely from his terrible first start of the season. He threw 6 innings last night and allowed just one hit and he walked one. He struck out 6. On the season he’s struck out 13 and walked 3 in 15 innings.

Jose Arias got the save in the 7th inning and it was an impressive one. He struck out 4 batters.

Kane County Cougars Game 2

The Cougars won 2-0 and had only 2 hits. Ben Carhart (double) and Yasiel Balaguert were the only Cougars with hits. Jacob Hannemann, Carhart and Jacob Rogers each walked.

The team walked 3 times in the 7 inning game and had only 2 hits. You’d think they’d have struck out a lot, but they did not. They struck out only one time (Jacob Rogers).

Jen-Ho Tseng allowed 6 hits and no runs in 5.1 innings. He walked none and struck out 6. Zack Godley threw the final 1.2 innings and allowed a hit and struck out 4.

2014 Assume the Position: 2B

2014 Assume the Position:

Catchers
First Base

2013 Assume the Position:

Second Base

      Last Year 2014 Career (MLB)
  Name Age (2014 season) AVG OBP SLG wOBA Oliver wOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Barney 28 .208 .266 .303 .252 .279 .246 .293 .336 .278
AAA Watkins 24 .243 .333 .379 .325 .281 .211 .268 .237 .233
AA Alcantara 22 .271 .352 .451 .365 .293        
A+ Darvill 22 .253 .324 .365 .321 .256        
  Saunders 24 .226 .316 .321 .304 .288        
  Bruno 23 .362 .436 .478 .424 .326        
A Amaya 21 .252 .329 .369 .326 .277        
  Zapenas 24 .255 .419 .319 .364 .265        
A- Lockhart 21 .290 .346 .331 .328 .244        
  Bote 21 .250 .337 .366 .341 .261        
Rk Blair 24 .226 .297 .283 .285 .274        
  Stevens 25 .257 .388 .329 .359 .279        

The MLB average wOBA for a second baseman last year was .305.

MLB

Darwin Barney took a large step in the wrong direction. He's now had 3 of 4 MLB seasons with an OBP south of .300, and 2013 in particular was putrid. He's still a defensive stalwart, but that's all; he's one of the 2 or 3 worst hitters in baseball and shouldn't start for even a team as bad as ours. Barney has the chops to play 2B and SS which makes him a valuable backup, but no team that gives Barney 500 PA can reasonably aspire to contend without serious firepower everywhere else.

AAA

Logan Watkins must have taken a dump on Dale Sveum's desk last year, because after he was called up he was used quite sparingly. Watkins underperformed with the stick in AAA last year but still took his walks. He's not so punchless that pitchers can attack him directly, but he's probably never going to hit more than 6-8 HR a year. I'd like to see him break ST as the starting 2B and give him some time to see what you have, but the reality is probably utility 2B/CF at this point. 

AA

Arismendy Alcantara was shunted to 2B to make way for the Baez Express, which tore through the Southern League like $20 of Taco Bell through my digestive system. It might be a better fit for him (though I maintain CF could work equally well) anyways. Alcantara had a bit of a breakthrough season in 2013, and he'll start this year in AAA purgatory while his service clock becomes more tenable. Alcantara isn't going to embarass the PCL (or any league), and thus won't force the issue, but Arismendy should be a solid if unspectacular major league regular for the foreseeable future. 

A+

Wes Darvill got a taste of the AFL as Baez' replacement, but I think that was more out of the necessity for an infielder than Darvill's skills. He profiles probably as an upper-minors mainstay, perhaps grabbing a cup of coffee or two during his career. He's not particularly muscular or athletic but he makes it work. Tim Saunders is too old for this shit, and also too old to hit under the league average in A+. Stephen Bruno came back from an injury to further embarass the league he was placed in. He'll need to move relatively quickly, but he's only had 2 professional years and he went crazy in both of them. It'll be very interesting to see what happens when he faces actual pitching (his A- BABIP was .431, his A+ BABIP .472); he's not particularly fast, so those BABIPs are the result of him just being too good for the level. I'd look for an aggressive promotion here to see what you really have; it's difficult to gauge until then. 

A

Gioskar Amaya had a 2013 he'd rather forget. I thought he'd take a Great Leap Forward; instead, he tripped on his bat and lost 77 points of wOBA and over 240 points of OPS. The walks went down (but not a ton), the strikeouts stayed the same, and the BABIP fell to a normal level; the real loss was his power (which is what made him intriguing to start with). Hopefully Amaya finds it in 2014, and last year becomes a distant memory. Bradz A Penas sure can take a walk, but he can't do much of anything else. Punchless bats like his are just calling to be exposed against mid-90s heat and pitches that break hard and late.

A-

Daniel Lockhart (who I ALWAYS want to call Gilderoy) has a bat even more feckless than Zapenas'. It is entirely without feck. It's hard to envision him as anything more than organizational fodder but I've been wrong before. David Bote was much more promising in his second season of professional ball. I'd like to see him grab the lion's share of the starts in A ball next season. 

Rk 

Zak Blair (20th round, 2013) and Trevor Stevens (UDFA) are both old and neither had enough PA to really say anything constructive about. 

I thought 2B was a beacon of hope last year, and I was wrong. DeVoss moved off the position. Torreyes was traded. Watkins underperformed. At least Alcantara moved to the position (and it's feasible Baez ends up here when it all shakes up), and if Bruno stays at 2B he's got at least a shot to be a prospect in the future. All told, 2B is about middle-of-the-road as far as talent is concerned, with a few intriguing guys at the bottom and a few intriguing guys at the top. It's hard to ask for more than that.

 

 

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Logan Watkins

Logan-Watkins1aFor some reason, I was thinking that Logan Watkins was drafted in the 3rd round in 2008. He did sign for $600,000, which was probably 2nd round money considering the Cubs draft order that year (maybe even higher at that time), but he lasted until the 21st round. He had a strong committment to Wichita State.

Watkins weighs 175 pounds and stands 5-11. He's right-handed and bats left-handed. He turned 24 years old on August 29th.

Performance

The 2nd baseman had been better than league average at the plate prior to this season. Last year he had a very good season hitting .281/.383/.422. His wRC+ was 130. His first season of AAA didn't go as smoothly. He hit .243/.333/.379, which was good for a 90 wRC+. He was called up to Chicago at the beginning of August.

After beginning his MLB career with 2 hits in 6 plate appearances, he's managed just 1 hit in his last 19. He's walked twice and struckout 10 times. Watkins has typically had a walk rate above average and has mostly kept the ball in play. His 40% strikeout rate so far at the MLB level is nothing to be concerned with yet. The sample size isn't very large.

At AAA, he walked in 8% of his plate appearances, which was down from the 12.9% a year ago at AA. Watkins doesn't have a lot of power, but it's better than Matt Szczur's. He began his career with no home runs in his first two seasons and had just 6 of them over his first four. Those seasons totaled 1447 plate appearances. He's hit 17 over the last two seasons in the minor leagues (1060 plate appearances).

It's been a disappointing season for Watkins, but he was still deserving of the call up.

Scouting

A recent scouting report for Watkins is difficult to find. He was drafted as a SS and has played 106 minor league games at the position. From what I recall, he was a below average fielder at the position at the time of the draft, which explains why he was promptly moved away from shortstop. He's also been an above average fielder at 2nd base and can play all over the field. He won't hit for much power, but has shown good discipline in the minors and could keep the ball in play. He has above average speed and has swiped more than his fair share of bases in his career. He stole 28 last year at AA and 21 the year before. He stole only 10 this year, though. While he won't hit a lot of home runs, his ISO is much improved over the early part of his professional career.

Outlook

Watkins will get a shot to stick with the team, but his role will depend on a couple of things. First, he's going to have to hit better than he has so far and second, I'm not as certain about Darwin Barney's role with this team as a lot of Cubs fans might be. Barney has hit so poorly this season (57 wRC+) that he makes Starlin Castro's 2013 offensive performance look impressive.

I'm not convinced because I don't really know if it's possible to be so good at fielding that you can ignore how awful a hitter he is. Barney will be arbitration eligible after the season. How much do the Cubs really want to pay someone who is quite possibly the worst hitter in Major League Baseball? Can his fielding really be so awesome that you can overlook that?

If the Cubs decide they can't overlook that, Logan Watkins will likely get an early shot in the spring training to win that job.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2014 Cubs: A Bat Away From Normal

Any baseball fan likely realizes that the game is fundamentally different in 2013 than it was in, say, 1999 (the height of the "We Care About Steroids" era). In 1999, the league wOBA was .341; in 2013, it's .313. That's a titanic difference. Walks are at a 20-year low, and strikeouts this year are only lower than last year (and 19.7% of all PA). This seems to be understood by the vast, vast majority of Cubs fans.

On the other hand, there seems to be a disconnect at the team level. When people (myself included) look at a team that's offensively challenged, they have a tendency to overstate their putrescence. In reality, the Cubs are not much worse than the average team.

  League Cubs Difference
C .312 .333 .021
1B .332 .346 .014
2B .301 .242 -.059
SS .295 .281 -.014
3B .312 .311 -.001
RF .324 .308 -.016
CF .317 .319 .002
LF .319 .322 .003
Total     -.05
2B excl.     .009

Darwin Barney is a defensive wizard, but he's an offensive black hole. Luckily for the Cubs, not only is the bar for 2B offense quite low, the Cubs have 2 internal options that might be able to cheaply fill in as soon as 2014. The first, Logan Watkins, has a .327 wOBA in the PCL, which translates (roughly) to a .297 mark in the majors, and Alcantara's .360 translates to .302. Either one offers a substantial dip in defensive value, but I'm not sure that the tradeoff of 60 points of wOBA isn't worth it.

The other places the Cubs could upgrade are relatively easy to fix. SS has been a problem this year, but Castro is still expected to rebound (and he's been improving) and I'd expect him to at least hit the average SS this year. If you believe in Junior Lake, you could hope he gets you .319 in wOBA: your other option is to buy wOBA in free agency (and I'll detail a few ways that could happen soon). Other than those spots, the Cubs are as good or better than the league average; the only person they have to replace here is Dioner Navarro, and even omitting him, Castillo's .312 wOBA is exactly average for the position. 

If the Cubs wish to upgrade externally at 2B, RF, or CF (moving DeJesus to a corner – keep in mind you'd have to get a CF wOBA around .332 to offset the decreased RF production from Schierholtz), they've got a few options.

2B

Robinson Cano is a free agent, and he's on a fringe-HOF path as it is. He's going to command somewhere in the realm of 8/$184, in my opinion. I wouldn't touch it, but he'd instantly take 2B wOBA up around 120 points. Kelly Johnson is probably a 2/$10 guy, which is totally fine, and he brings a roughly league-averag wOBA to the position this year and next. He's a solid replacement option that you don't feel bad about putting on the bench when/if Alcantara is ready to take it over. Chase Utley is probably being extended, and is probably priced out of our range for what he is. 

CF

The big get here is Jacoby Ellsbury, if the Red Sox don't re-sign him. He is probably good for around .335 in the wOBA department, with the fringe benefit of competent defense there. A quick and dirty guess at his contract would be 4/71, so right at 17.8 AAV. That's pricey, but that's free agency. You could try to buy low on Curtis Granderson, but I wouldn't be that comfortable projecting more than a .330-.340 wOBA from him with poor outfield defense. If you could get him for 2/18 or something, you could probably talk, but his name will get him more than that.

RF

I've been carrying my torch for Shin-Soo Choo, and this is the reason why. He plays a sub-par RF, but he play it. He's on pace for a .388 wOBA season (and was projected for .372). I'd say the least optimistic projection for next year is .350, which is still 26 points better than the league average RF, AND you can keep the CF you already have (that's league average) in CF, where his bat plays. You could even move Choo to LF (which has lower offensive standards anyway, if not true historically), and keep Schierholtz there if you can find a platoon mate). Nelson Cruz is on option, too, but he's a horrific fielder, might be suspended/altered due to Biogenesis, is injury-prone, and is the kind of middling OBP – high SLG guy that we don't really need. 

If you replace Barney with even a mediocre wOBA, you're sitting at a league-average offense in this depressed environment. The replacement is essentially free, with 2 valid options in-house for the league minimum. The Cubs have a ton of money to play with, and there are options in free agency to cover their few holes offensively. Add in a return to form somewhat for Castro, a step forward from Rizzo, and some natural regression to the Cubs RISP BA, and it's not hard to envision a Cubs team that is at worst an average offensive club. 

Fun with MLE calculators: Javier Baez' projected line in the majors off of his AA stint is .187/.237/.546, 35.1 K%, 6.5 BB%.