Tag: logan watkins

JoT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-14-13

Alburquerque Isotops 1 @ Iowa Cubs 4

Chris Rusin made his 3rd start of the season for the I-Cubs on Sunday. He had his best start of the year. He had allowed 7 runs (6 earned) over his previous 11 innings of work while striking out only 6 and walking 6. On Sunday he threw 7 innings, allowed just 4 hits and a run while striking out 4 and walking no one.

Zach Putnam got the 2-inning save and didn't surrender any hits or runs. He walked 1 while striking out 3.

The Cubs had just 6 hits and Brian Bogusevic was the only Cub with more than one. He was 2-4 with a run scored. Brett Jackson got the day off and Bogusevic started in CF and led off. Darwin Barney filled in for Logan Watkins. Barney was 0-1 with a strikeout and 3 walks.

Ian Stewart began his rehab at Iowa and was 0-3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts.

Brad Nelson, Darnell McDonald and Luis Flores were each 1-4. Chris Rusin added a hit in 3 plate appearances.

Chattanooga Lookouts 3 @ Tennessee Smokies 7

Dae-Eun Rhee is off to an interesting start. He walked 3 and struckout only 1 in his first start last week, but allowed just 2 hits and a run in 4.1 innings. On Sunday he threw 6 innings, allowed just a single hit and no runs or walks while striking out 3. He's allowed just 3 hits in 10.1 innings, but has gotten a little lucky as far as BABIP goes. Better to be lucky than unlucky.

Rhee was once a prospect who had a high ceiling, but was derailed with injuries very early in his career. He either never fully recovered or simply didn't have the stuff to make it as a lot of people though.

Zach Rosscup strukcout 3 and walked 0 in an inning of work. He did allow 2 hits and a run though. Kevin Rhoderick allocked 2 hits and 2 runs while walking 1 and striking out 1 in an inning of work. Brian Schlitter struck out a batter and allowed a hit in his inning.

Jae-Hoon Ha was 3-3 with a double and a walk. LF Rubi Silva and 2B Ronald Torreyes also had multi-hit games. Torreyes was 2-3 with a walk and Silva was 2-4 with a strikeout.

ronald-torreyesTorreyes came of the DL on Friday and has 4 hits and 3 walks in 9 plate appearances. He was the best player the Cubs got in return from the Reds for Sean Marshall after the 2011 season (they also got Travis Wood). The guy can hit, but got off to a slow start in High A last season. He did turn it around late in the season and ended up with a respectable line.

He's just 20 years old and already in AA so he's very young for the level. He might be the youngest position player in the Southern League. Among players with 17 at-bats (qualifed hitters), Arismendy Alcantara is the 2nd youngest player and Torreyes is younger than him, as well as the player above Alcantara.

I'll have a prospect profile for Torreyes next week. I think Myles may have overlooked Torreyes in his prospect rankings.

Alcantara and Matt Szczur were each 1-4. Alcantara struckout once and Szczur struckout twice. Szczur stole his 5th base of the season. Jonathon Mota was 2-4.

Daytona Cubs 3 @ Tampa Yankees 1

Zach Cates walked 3 and struckout 4 in 6 innings of work. He allowed 4 hits and a run. Austin Reed pitched the next 2 innings and allowed 3 hits, no runs, no walks and struckout 2. Peacekeeper Frank Del Valle got his 2nd save and struckout the side in the 9th.

Stephen Bruno, Dustin Geiger and Micah Gibbs were each 2-4. One of the hits for Gibbs was a double. The only other hits in the Cubs lineup belonged to Ben Carhart (1-4) and Javier Baez (1-4). Each player doubled.

Kane County Cougars @ Wisconsin Timber Rattlers double header postponed

Journeymen of Tomorrow: 4-10-13

Iowa Cubs 3 @ Round Rock Express 2

The Cubs got their first win of the season behind a decent start from Drew Carpenter. Carpenter pitched 5 innings, allowed 3 hits and walked 2 while striking out 4. He gave up 2 runs, both of which were earned.

Yioannar Negren pitched 2.2 innings and gave up a couple hits, struckout 2 and walked 1 while allowing no runs. Blake Parker got the save as he worked 1.1 innings. He gave up a hit and struckout 2.

RF Ryan Sweeney was 2-5 with a strikeout and 3B Edwin Maysonet was 2-3 with a walk and a strikeout. Logan Watkins was 1-4 with a walk and Brett Jackson’s new swing was 0-3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts.

The Cubs took 6 walks last night. The other two were by Darnell McDonald who was 0-3 with a couple walks.

Chattanooga Lookouts 6 @ Tennessee Smokies

Dallas Beeler threw 6 OK innings. He allowed 6 hits and 2 runs while walking a batter and striking out 3. He also hit 3 batters. Kevin Rhoderick gave up 4 runs in 1.1 innings of work. He allowed 2 hits and 2 walks.

Frank Batista threw the final 1.2 innings and allowed a couple of hits while striking a batter out. Batista is another of the Cubs minor league pitchers who has decent control, but doesn’t strike out nearly enough batters.

The Smokies only had 6 hits so there’s not a lot to write about. CF Rubi Silva collected 2 of those hits in 4 plate appearances. One of the hits was a double. Arismendy Alcantara had a double in 4 plate appearances. Justin Bour walked and homered in 4 plate appearances.

Rafael Lopez and Johermyn Chavez had the other two hits.

Matt Szczur was 0-5 and Christian Villanueva was 0-4.

Clearwater Threshers 14 @ Daytona Cubs 9

Ben Wells did not strike a batter out in 4 innings of work. He walked 4, gave up a home run, allowed 7 hits and somehow only 4 runs scored. I mentioned awhile back that I was very surprised to see Wells at this level. I hope he makes it, but I expect he’ll be dropped to Class A at some point.

Austin Reed gave up 3 runs and recorded only an out. Ryan Searle was about the only decent pitcher for the Cubs last night. He threw 3.2 innings, allowed a hit, walked 1 and struckout 4.

Zeke DeVoss was 2-6 with a home run and 2 strikeouts. It was his 2nd home run of the season already. He was caught stealing the other time he reached base. It was his first of the year against 4 successful steals. I’m loving DeVoss’ 5 walk to 5 strikeout ratio. The power will eventually drop (slugging over .600) since he’s not that kind of hitter, but you’ve got to love what you’ve seen out of him since he signed.

John Andreoli was 3-6 with a double. Javier Baez continues to struggle. He was 0-5 with 3 strikeouts. He did take his 1st walk of the season, which is good. However, he has 1 walk and 11 strikeouts in 28 plate appearances. He’s also committed 4 errors in 6 games.

Dustin Geiger was 1-5 with a home run and a strikeout. He made 3 errors in Monday’s game and when I checked the score of this one early last night, he had already made another error. Stephen Bruno and Ben Carhart were each 2-5. Bruno struckout twice and Carhart doubled.

Taiwan Easterling was also 2-5 and he hit a home run, his first of the season.

Jorge Soler was 1-3 with a walk, strikeout, double and an ejection. There was apparently an incident when he slid into 2nd base during the 7th inning. The benches cleared, but nothing came of it. Then Soler went and grabbed a fucking bat and charged the Threshers dugout. Fucking bat in hand!

Chicago Cubs prospect Jorge Soler was ejected from his Class A team’s game Wednesday night after approaching the opposing team’s dugout wielding a bat following an earlier confrontation on the field.

According to the Daytona Beach News Journal, Soler — the 21-year-old Cuban whom the Cubs signed to a nine-year, $30 million deal last year — slid into second base during the seventh inning of the Florida State League game and had words with an opposing player for the Clearwater Threshers in Daytona Beach, Fla.

Players from both the Threshers and Soler’s Daytona Cubs came out to separate the two, and the sides returned to their dugouts. But according to the News Journal, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound Soler sprinted back out — with bat in hand — toward the Threshers’ side.

Soler was caught by Cubs teammates before he made it to the opposing dugout and never swung the bat, according to the News Journal.

There are some quotes from the manager at the link. I’m going to assume charing the opposing dugout with bat in hand is not in The Cubs Way manual. As such, I think it’s safe to say that Soler is going to have a sit down with some important people. I would also think there would be a suspension coming his way from Minor League Baseball. None of us saw the incident, but I can easily imagine this would be a very stiff penalty for Soler. If it’s not as bad as sounds, it probably won’t be. Baseball tends to look down on players going after an entire dugout, bat in hand.

Clinton LumberKings 10 @ Kane County Cougars 4

Taylor Scott couldn’t get past 2 innings of work after his stellar performance in his debut. He threw 2 innings, allowed 3 hits, walked 5 and struckout nobody. He gave up 4 runs. Nathan Dorris pitched 4 innings, allowed a hit and struckout 5.

Steve Perakslis put the game out of reach in his 2 innings of work. He allowed 5 hits and 5 runs on 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. Bijan Radenmacher walked 3 and struckout nobody in an inning of work.

Rock Shoulders was 2-5 with a strikeout. Nobody else had more than 1 hit. Gioskar Amaya was 0-4. Dan Vogelbach was 1-3 with a walk. Jeimer Candelario was 0-2 with 3 walks and the struggling Marco Hernandez was 0-5.

Journeymen of Tomorrow: 4-6-13

Iowa Cubs 3 @ Alburquerque Isotopes 8

There’s not a whole lot to like about the Iowa pitching staff. Brooks Raley threw 4 innings, allowed 7 hits and 4 runs. He struckout 3 and walked 2. Soon to be 29 year old Yoanner Negrin struckout 3 and walked 1 over 2 innings of work. Zach Putnam pitched 1.2 innings, allowed 3 hits and 3 runs while Rafael Dolis recorded an out and gave up 2 hits and a run.

Logan Watkins has gotten off to a good start this season. He hit very well the first couple games and last night he was 1-4 with a walk. Brett Jackson’s new swing was 1-4 with a strikeout and I’m not exactly sure why, but he was taken out of the game late. Ryan Sweeney was 3-3 with a walk.

That’s about all that happened for Iowa. They’ve started their season 0-3.

Tennessee Smokies 9 @ Pensacola Blue Wahoos

When I went to bed this game was 1-1 in the 9th inning so I thought the score was a misprint. Turns out the Smokies scored 8 runs in the top of the 12th inning.

Eric Jokisch pitched 6 strong innings. He allowed 3 hits and a run while striking out 7 and walking 2. The Smokies got 6 shutout innings from their bullpen. Kevin Rhoderick pitched 1 inning, Marcus Hatley 2, Frank Batista 2 and Brian Schlitter 1. Only Hatley’s performance is worthy of noting. He struckout 4 and walked 1. The Smokies gave up only 5 hits all night and walked 4 batters.

3 position players had performances worth noting. Matt Szczur was 2-7 with 3 RBI. Jae-Hoon Ha was 3-5 and Christian Villanueva was 2-5. Other than those 3, nothing really happened. Those 3 are also the ones who have been consistently hitting for the Smokies the first 3 games of the year.

Brevard County Manatees 2 @ Daytona Cubs 4

The Cubs had 3 pitchers pitch 3 innings apiece. Austin Kirk started, allowed 4 hits and a couple runs on 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. Yao-Lin Wang replaced him and struckout 4. Frank Del Valle finished the game and struckout 6 and walked 1.

Frank Del Valle was signed in June, 2011 and has been OK so far. His control has been good, but he hasn’t struckout a lot of batters. Maybe last night was the start of an improvement for him, but probably not.

Jorge Soler was 2-3 with a walk and his first home run of the year. He’s gotten off to a fantastic start so far. Stephen Bruno was 2-3 and Tim Saunders was 3-4. Javier Baez was 0-4 and has struggled a bit in this first series.

Quad Cities River Dogs 13 @ Kane County Cougars 10

Jose Arias put this game out of reach early, but somehow the Cougars came back to tie it. Arias allowed 7 hits and 7 runs in 1.2 innings. Nathan Dorris allowed a run in 2.1 innings while striking out 3 and walking 2. Then Ian Dickson mostly kept the game where it was as he threw 5 relief innings and allowed 2 runs, which allowed the Cougars to come back from down 8-1 to tie it in the 9th 10-10. They’d lose in the 13th. Steve Perakslis threw 2 innings, allowed 3 runs on 3 hits.

Rock Shoulders was 4-6 last night. The big game belongs to outfielder Oliver Zapata who was 3-6 with a triple and a home run and 5 RBI. Pin-Chieh Chen, Gioskar Amaya and Jeimer Candelario were each 2-6. Dan Vogelbach was 3-6 with a double. Catcher Willson Contreras was 3-5 with a double and a walk. Poor Marco Hernandez. Guy has been odd man out in this lineup a couple times already. He was 0-6.

Journeymen of Tomorrow 4/4/13

The minor league season is officially underway. All four full season affiliates began their season on Thursday. I would think these updates would evolve as the season goes on. I’d really like to highlight players we don’t typically consider prospects, as well as covering the prospects we all know about. My intention is to let the first part of that develop so as the season goes along and the performance accumulates, then it will be a good time to do that.

I don’t know about the rest of the you, but I couldn’t really care if the Iowa Cubs won or lost. We follow the minor leagues to get an idea how the players are doing. Those players, any of them really, who could wind up at the big league level helping the team in games we actually care about.

I’m not sure how Myles will do these on the weekend and hopefully they’re a bit different than mine. My plan isn’t to tell you who won or lost. I’ll provide the box score from milb.com and even the score, but I’m not going to talk about that inning the Tennessee Smokies let the game get away after they led off the inning with a single, infield hit and walk.

On Thursday, the Cubs minor league teams scored only 11 runs combined. If you add in the MLB team, the 5 teams scored a combined 14 runs. Four of them scored 3 and another 2. Only the Chicago Cubs won their game.

Iowa Cubs 3 @ Alburquerque Isotopes 10

The PCL is back. The league that’s sure to provide you some high scoring games did that on Opening Night. Even though the Cubs scored only 3 runs, both teams had 11 hits.

Cubs starter Chris Rusin was even decent. He threw 5 innings, allowed 3 runs, only 2 of which were earned, walked a couple and struckout 4. Casey Coleman and Rafael Dolis would throw a scoreless 6th and 8th inning, but they had trouble getting any Isotope out in the 7th.

Jensen Lewis recorded an out and gave up 4 hits and 5 runs. Zach Putnam finished the inning and allowed 2 more runs on 3 hits.

Brian Bogusevic (1B) had the best night among the hitters as he collected 3 hits, all doubles, in 5 plate appearances. Ty Wright (LF) and J.C. Boscan (C) were each 2-4.

Logan Watkins (2B) batted at the top of the order and was 1-5 with 3 strikeouts. Brett Jackson’s new swing went 1-4 with an HBP and 2 strikeouts. Brad Nelson (3B) added a couple walks in 4 plate appearances.

Tennessee Smokies 3 @ Pensacola Blue Wahoos 7

The Smokies allowed 4 home runs in 8 innings pitched. Starter Dallas Beeler gave up 3 of them in 5.1 innings. He also allowed 7 hits, struckout 5 and walked 1. Beeler also hit 2 batters. You won’t win many games when you give up that many baserunners and that many home runs.

A.J. Morris pitched 1.2 innings and allowed a hit, a home run, struckout 2 and walked 1. Tony Zych finished the game. He allowed 2 hits and 2 runs, neither of them earned, in an inning of work.

Matt Szczur was in LF and Jae Hoon Ha in CF. I guess I had expected Szczur to play CF and Ha in RF. Both of these players will have to stick in CF if they’re to have much value to the Cubs down the road.

Szczur got off to a fast start. He was 3-4 with a run scored. Arismendy Alcantara (SS) was 2-3 with a walk and a home run.

The middle of the Smokies lineup (3-6) combined to go 0-16 with 4 strikeouts. Jae Hoon Ha, Justin Bour (1B), Christian Villanueva (3B) and Rafael Lopez (C) were each 0-4 with a strikeout. Johermyn Chavez (RF) added the only other Cubs hit.

Brevard County Manatees 4 @ Daytona Cubs 3

Groundballer Ben Wells got the start for the Cubs and pitched pretty well in his debut. He’s young for the level. He lasted just 4 innings and if you look at the hits or runs allowed you might not think it was so hot. He gave up 7 hits and 2 runs scored, but more importantly than either of those, he struckout 4 and walked no one. If you could only know two things about a pitcher’s performance, you’d want to know his walks and strikeouts. Those are about as good as it gets in terms of predicting future success. Not that 4 innings will do anything like that, but it was a pretty good debut.

He was relieved by Sheldon McDonald who threw 2.2 innings, allowed 3 hits and a couple runs while striking out 3 and walking 1. Eduardo Figueroa threw 2.1 scoreless.

Zeke DeVoss led off and played CF for the Cubs. He was 1-3 with a walk and a strikeout. Tim Saunders doubled in a run and scored one himself in 4 plate appearances while Javier Baez was 0-3 with a sac fly. Jorge Soler singled twice in 4 plate appearances. Stephen Bruno (2B) and John Andreoli (LF) collected the only other two Cubs hits.

Soler was was also picked off 1st base.

Quad City River Bandits 7 @ Kane County Cougars 2

It’s a little more difficult to argue Pierce Johnson had a good night than it might have been for Ben Wells. While Johnson struckout 4 and walked 1 in his full season debut, he also gave up 6 hits and 5 runs in 2.1 innings. He kept the ball in the yard and the 1st rounder will have many more starts this season.

Johnson was relieved by Justin Amlung who threw 2.2 innings, allowed a run on 2 hits, walked 2 and struckout 2. Brian Smith struckout 4 in 2 innings while walking 2 and allowing a run.

Rock Shoulders hit a 2-run home run and struckout twice in 4 plate appearances. He drove in the only runs of the game for the Cougars who had only 5 hits on the night.

Pin-Chieh Chen and Gioskar Amaya combined to go 0-8 out of the top two spots in the order. Dan Vogelbach batted 3rd and went 2-4 (both singles). Jeimer Candelario was 1-3 with a walk and Willson Contreras was 1-2 and was hit by a pitch.

2013 Cubs Prospects Ratings

A little over 2 weeks ago, I wrote an article with Uncle Dave's help about a different way to rate prospects. Dave got the idea from Hockey's Future.

Dave's explanations of what each number grade (ceiling) represented was so awesome that I used it word for word. I did want to clarify something on the letter grades (floor). An A represents a player who could lose a grade off of his ceiling. A player with a 9 could become an 8. Nobody has a 100% chance of reaching their ceiling and even few people will have an A. Each other letter grade is another number the player could drop. A 7D could end up at a 3.

The ratings below are for the 15 positional prospects that Myles wrote about, along with 6 pitching prospects. There is a way to take these ratings and create a rankings, which we'll get to at the end, but for now, the list below does not represent a ranking of the prospects.

Dave and I each wrote about the player in our correspondence. I'm going to try and pick and choose parts of each of our comments to include with the players. if you don't like something that was said, it was probably Uncle Dave who said it.

2013 Cubs Prospects: Position Players

Javier Baez: 9F. His tools scream superstar potential, though his upside rating takes a .5 to 1 point hit if he's shifted over to third. To this point, patience has been the only thing holding him back from being a top 10 prospect. So far, it's terrible, but he's young and there's plenty of time to fix it. If he does, a switch to 3rd won't much matter, which is probably inevitable with Starlin Castro at SS anyway. He's still young enough that he could wind up a AAAA guy if everything goes wrong. His performance this year will go a long way in putting a finer focus on his evaluations.

Albert Almora: 8E. Unusual for a player so young to get an E, but his makeup and defense make it a very good bet that he hits the bigs at some point, even if it's as the next incarnation of Bobby Scales. Tools are a bit short for an elite prospect. He only has 145 professional plate appearances and has yet to play in a full season league. He'll go to Kane County this year, but right now he's a guy who's an all around good talent, but has done little to nothing.

Jorge Soler: 9F. Tools and potential are a bit below Baez given his defensive position but his absolute upside is a guy who hits .300 with 40 HR most years, which puts him in the 'perennial all-star' conversation. He has more power potential, speed and raw athleticism than anyone else in the farm system except for the next guy on the list (the power part). Maybe even the entire organization, MLB included. Again, he's at a pretty critical juncture that could see his letter rating improve significantly by the end of the year, or his number rating drop. Due to the small sample and low levels he's performed at, he still has a long way to go and can therefore drop considerably. It would be easy to rate Soler higher than Baez, but the fact that Baez can play SS gives him the edge.

Dan Vogelbach: 8.5E. I'm giving him a better letter grade than Soler due to his approach and his outlier power. Vogelbach's power potential is off the charts and he's shown great plate discipline too. It's tough to give a guy who hasn't gotten past Boise that good of a letter, but at the same time, it's tough for me to envision that Vogelbach has a floor lower than Brad Nelson, who I think is a pretty solid 3.5 now that the dust has settled.

Brett Jackson: 7C. He could still sniff Mike Cameron's career arc, and even if he doesn't I think he's all but sure to catch on as a fifth OF for someone as long as he's cost controlled. He had his worst season at AAA, but still had a 107 wRC+. Even in his worst minor league season, he was a better than average hitter and played a premium position. He'll have to cut down on the strikeouts, but this is still a guy who has fringe all-star potential. ZiPS has him at 2.5 fWAR this season and Oliver at 1.9 fWAR. His strikeouts prevent him from being an elite talent, but Jackson still has an MLB career ahead of him.

Gioskar Amaya: 8F. Could wind up as an 8.5 with another year under his belt by dint of playing a middle infield position. He's shifted from SS to 2nd, plays above average defense, but without outlier tools it's tough to consider him a sure-fire bet to hit the bigs at his age.

Arismendy Alcantara: 7.5E. That optimistic upside rating is based on his developing power and playing SS. Could be lower. Letter grade is a shade better than those above him due to his experience at the mid-minors level and lower ceiling. The numbers aren't eye-popping or anything, but he was in the middle of a really good year in a pitcher's league before getting injured. If the improvement from last year is real, he's more of a sure thing than Amaya. The potential is there as he showed more power a year ago, but we'll know more this year.

Jeimer Candelario: 6D. Does not seem like he has all-star upside (for the sake of comparison, he has 6 HR in 310 PA at A-, and Vogelbach hit 10 in 168). Candelario just finished his age 18 season and he played the entire season from July until the end in Boise. He has age on his side, but right now the numbers just don't support someone who is going to be able to hit like a traditional 3rd baseman.

Logan Watkins: 6C. As with Jackson, looks a good bet to catch on as a utilityman somewhere. Upside of blossoming into Jose Hernandez with less bat and more glove not particularly inspiring, though. Another decent comp might be Todd Walker than was mentioned in the comments here recently. He has plate discipline, bats left handed and plays up the middle, which are all the reasons why he's likely to play at the MLB level for at least a few years.

Dave Sappelt: 5.5C. Can play CF, and if the on-base skills he showed in a small number of ABs in 2012 are real, he could be useful. If he hits like he did at Iowa last year, he will not be useful. He has a passable walk rate and a low strikeout rate. He also wins the award for looking like the smallest player I had ever seen on tv during an Iowa Cubs game. From a distance, he looked his size could match that of any 12 year old in Des Moines.

Marco Hernandez: 6.5E. Has shown flashes of gap power but has a long way to develop. Apparent ability to stick at SS makes him a legit top-list prospect until he completely stops hitting. His BABIP has been high in the low minors and at A ball he was exposed for his free swinging ways. His strikeout rate went through the roof and only had an OK walk rate.

Christian Villanueva: 6.5D. Consistent power and on-base skills promising in the low minors, though he's not been young at any stop. Needs to show an upward arc this year to justify his upside rating, perhaps by improving his hit tool or making the climb to being a 25 HR-type of guy. He reminds me a bit of Placido Polanco in that he might end up an underrated 3rd baseman. I wouldn't be too terribly surprised to see Villanueva at 3rd in 2014 and Logan Watkins at 2nd base.
 Also in his favor, he was not blindsided by being traded for Ryan Dempster.

Junior Lake: 7E. Gap power and speed combo could play well if all goes right, especially if he sticks at SS. The fact that his best OBP to date has been .341 when repeating AA is a bit scary, though. If he doesn't take advantage of the PCL this year, there's a chance he washes out completely. You don't like seeing these sort of questions linger this long. Could be deserving a better letter grade due to his defense at SS. It's reportedly been MLB caliber for a couple years and guys who play good defense at SS, end up having at least a short career.

Matt Szczur: 5B. Has only performed well when old and repeating a level. His upside is limited by his age, though if he can add a bit more power and show the top end of his on-base skills he could be a useful regular. He'll never be a star, but his discipline improved last year. He struggled at AA and that's where he'll begin 2013. Makeup and glove make him a good bet to catch on as a fifth OF somewhere.

Josh Vitters: 4.5B. Last two years at age-appropriate stops in the minors were acceptable, though his value vanishes if he can't stick at 3B. Has already established value as a AAAA guy, so his floor is relatively high at this point. At the very least, Vitters will stick around the upper minors for awhile and maybe catch on at the MLB level from time to time with various teams.

2013 Cubs Prospects: Pitchers

The Cubs have 6 pitchers in their system that belong in the discussion with these 15 players. Unfortunately for the Cubs, most of them have very little professional experience, some of them have significant injury concerns above what you'd expect from any pitcher and they're mostly a very long way from reaching the big leagues.

Pitchers are harder to rate and/or rank than position players. Pitchers have a tendency to get injured. Injuries often don't heal completely and even prevent players from improving. Some of the times, they just get worse. Years ago, Baseball Prospectus came up with TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect).

Myself, and most others, even at BPro these days, would disagree with that, but it started for a reason: young pitchers are very difficult to project.

Dave and I ignored the inherit injury risk for pitchers with the exceptions of those who have already experienced them. If you didn't ignore this, almost all pitchers would receive a very low ceiling. This doesn't help us in terms of ratings the prospects. We can accept the reality that pitchers face while also sometimes ignoring that risk.

Arodys Vizcaino: 8F. There's a lot to like here, with two plus pitches and what appears to be pretty good control. It's pretty easy to imagine him being a classic front-end power pitcher. He's still young, throws hard and has been very impressive at the minor league level. His K-BB% was outstanding in the minor leagues and definitely indicates someone who could be a front of the rotation starter. However, he's recovering from TJS and we will need to monitor his recovery. Persistent arm trouble could keep him out of the bigs. We'll keep our fingers crossed on this one.

Dillon Maples: 8G. Second verse, same as the first, little bit louder and even though Maples appears to have a similar skillset as Vizcaino, a little bit worse. Hard throwing righty with a great curveball, signed in 2011 and has all of 10.1 professional innings to his name. Scouts haven't been too impressed with his mechanics and while 10.1 innings is nothing, he hasn't impressed them with his control. Still has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter, or a number 2, depending on which scout you read. Injury troubles this early are never a good sign. Also, he gets demerits for claiming on Twitter that the USA has the best national anthem in the world, which shows disturbing lack of judgement (or at least bad taste in music). Very low floor due to early injury history.

Duane Underwood: 8G. Another very live arm, but unsurprisingly lacks polish given his debut age last year was just 17. Among all the potential starters, he probably throws harder than any of them. He could get a bump in upside over Maples due to his easy velocity (said to hit 97 in live action) at such a young age, but there are a lot of questions with pitchers of this age. Won't really have a good feel for what he might be able to do until he has a couple of years under his belt. Could have 3 plus pitches, but all of them need work.

Pierce Johnson: 6D. Forearm troubles his junior year at Missouri State kept him out of the first round of the draft. The Cubs selected him with their first pick of the 2nd day. Showcases a good curveball and is fairly polished after three years at the University of Missouri. Ceiling isn't quite as high as some others on this list but I'd expect him to move up relatively quickly (could be in the high minors next year if all breaks right). He sits 90-92 and reaches 96. He only has 11 professional innings, but has good command and can strike some batters out. ETA is much sooner than the previous two pitchers.

Paul Blackburn: 7F. Throws fairly hard considering his age and stature, said to have good mechanics. His potential to physically mature gives him a slightly higher upside than we saw with Johnson. Still a long way off, so it will be a while before we can really refine this grade. Everything with Blackburn is projectability at this point. Scouts are hopeful his velocity ticks up some, which it should. They like his mound presence and polish. They think he could eventually have 3 plus pitches. Key word, eventually. The Cubs liked Blackburn a lot and he's more polished than Maples and Underwood so he could move more quickly through the system.

Juan Paniagua: 6E. Big arm, but unusually thin resume for his age. My sense is that he's basically the same developmentally as a first-year high school draftee, but he's 23 (supposedly). That makes it tough to imagine him as anything more than a bullpen arm or back-end starter as he just has too much to figure out. Raw talent requires giving him a fair upside rating, though. MLB lists his age as undetermined. According to documents, which can't possibly be trusted considering it's his third official document, he'll be 23 in less than a week and has a very long way to go. The Cubs signed him for $1.5 million so they really liked what they saw. He's currently having Visa issues and hasn't arrived in the US yet, which will only further delay what we know about him.

What if we wanted to combine the upside and floor so we could rank the players? This isn't something I'm particularly interested in. One of the reasons why I like this system so much is that it gets away from ranking and puts more focus on something that I think is more useful to us. Whether a guy is ranked 1st, 2nd or 3rd really doesn't tell us much about the player.

People do enjoy their rankings so we can use the upside and floor to create them in a more objective manner. Multiply the upside by 10 and subtract 5 from each letter below A. So a 5B player would be 45. Here they are.

Javier Baez 65
Jorge Soler 65
Dan Vogelbach 65
Albert Almora 60
Brett Jackson 60
Gioskar Amaya 55
Arismendy Alcantara 55
Arodys Vizcaino 55
Logan Watkins 50
Christian Villanueva 50
Junior Lake 50
Dillon Maples 50
Duane Underwood 50
Jeimer Candelario 45
Dave Sappelt 45
Marco Hernadez 45
Matt Szczur 45
Pierce Johnson 45
Paul Blackburn 45
Josh Vitters 40
Juan Paniagua 40

I'd like to thank Dave for being a tremendous help in understanding these ratings, helping me write this and for allowing me to waste so much of his time. It's at least his work as much as mine. Much thanks goes to Hockey's Future for the idea.

Daily Facepalm 3.3.13 – Shark named opening day starter, Garza probably to miss a month

dailyfacepalm

Matt Garza shut down, likely to miss first month of the season

Per Carrie Muskat, Garza experienced more pain related to his strained lat muscle during a throwing session today. He's been shut down a week by the trainers, and it's "likely" that he'll miss the first month of the season. Carlos Villanueva is probably the happiest guy in the clubhouse right now. His four innings with one run yesterday certainly helps too.

Re: Garza's trade prospects

Jeff Samardzija named opening day starter

My one-year-ago self is still shaking his head.

At least Scott Baker is doing okay

(Knocks on all available wooden surfaces). He's on track to come back in mid-April.

Other injury news

Castro's hamstring is inflamed, but he still feels okay enough to hit in the batting cages this weekend. Ian Stewart doesn't sound much closer to coming back from his injury. It sucks for Stewart, this is exactly the worst time of the year for a player in his situation to get injured.

What the hell does Logan Watkins eat, anyway?

Just read this bizarre article. Who the fuck has never eaten oatmeal, or an orange?

Steve Clevenger to get some time in at 1b, 2b, 3b in the spring

He's filling in for Rizzo during the WBC, but what has he done for the Cubs to really want his bat in the lineup? I'll take this as a slight on Brent Lillibridge. I don't really get the point of Clevenger backing up Rizzo, since they're both left handed. The same goes with Valbuena at 3b. I look forward to the epic string of profanities from AndCounting if Clevenger makes the team.

Bunt tournament update

Per muskat:

David DeJesus vs. Starlin Castro
Anthony Rizzo vs. Logan Watkins
Brent Lillibridge vs Michael Brenly
Edwin Maysonet vs Andy Lane (bullpen catcher)

Edwin Jackson vs. Casey Coleman
Hisanori Takahashi vs. Tim Buss (strength coach)
Jeff Samardzija vs Blake Parker
Travis Wood vs Nate Halm (video guy)

It's hard not to root for the video guy (dying laughing)

CrawfordWatch

Carl Crawford was shut down with nerve irritation in his surgically repaired left elbow. I would say that the Red Sox are really regretting this Soriano-like deal, but they're not even paying him anymore. 

Cubs roster updates

Last Update (2/21/2013): Removed Tony Campana from the 40-man roster. Added Scott Hairston to the 40-man roster.

Earlier this week the Cubs re-signed Shawn Camp to a 1-year, $1.35 million contract. They also made a series of moves in preparation of protecting players from next month's Rule 5 Draft. They added Logan Watkins to the roster along with Trey McNutt, Christian Villanueva and Robert Whitenack. They traded Jake Brigham to the Rangers for former top draft prospect Barrett Loux and a player to be named later.

Brigham was on the 40-man roster and Loux is not so that saved them a save. They also sold Bryan LaHair to Japan to aid them in their battle against ham. The Cubs roster now sits at 40 players.

While Loux was highly thought of prior to the draft, he wasn't expected to go in the 1st round and definitely not in the top 6 picks. He did and my guess would be it was so the Diamondbacks could save a little money. Been there, done that. Usually doesn't work out.

Here was Loux's scouting report at the time of the draft:

The Tigers spent heavily to sign high school pitchers Rick Porcello ($7 million contract in the first round) and Casey Crosby ($748,500 in the fifth) in 2007, and thought they also met the $800,000 asking price of Loux, their 24th-rounder. He changed his mind about signing and instead opted to attend Texas A&M, where his 2009 season was halted by bone chips in his elbow. After having the chips removed, Loux is healthy again and racking up strikeouts with a 90-92 mph fastball that touches 95. The 6-foot-5, 220-pounder throws with such ease that his fastball appears even harder. If he had a standout second pitch, he'd be a first-round pick, but he may have to settle for the sandwich round because his curveball and changeup are merely effective. His curveball was his best pitch in high school but hasn't been as sharp since his elbow surgery. He'll show an average changeup, though not on a consistent basis. Some teams have medical concerns about Loux, who missed two months of his high school senior season with a tender shoulder.

Loux will be 24 in April so he's not really a young prospect and has only two professional years of experience. He did perform rather well in AA last season, but the sub 20% strikeout rate could be a concern. He does throw strikes. He had a decent 3.48 ERA and the same is true for his 3.66 FIP. He was not ranked in the Rangers top 10 last year and may not find himself ranked in the Cubs top 10 this year.

However, he does become one of the more interesting starting pitching prospects in the Cubs organization simply because they lack anyone else who could be ready before the end of the century.

Below is the updated 40-man roster with salaries for each player through 2020.

Pitchers DOB B/T Ht Wt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Scott Baker 9/19/81 R-R 6'4" 215 5.5              
Michael Bowden 9/9/86 R-R 6'3" 215                
Alberto Cabrera 10/25/88 R-R 6'4" 210                
Shawn Camp 11/18/75 R-R 6'0" 205 1.35              
Casey Coleman 7/3/87 L-R 6'0" 185                
Rafael Dolis 1/10/88 R-R 6'4" 215                
Scott Feldman 2/7/83 L-R 6'6" 230 6              
Kyuji Fujikawa 7/21/80 L-R 6'0" 190 4 5.5            
Matt Garza 11/26/83 R-R 6'4" 215 Arb 4              
Edwin Jackson 9/9/83 R-R 6'3" 210 11 11 11 11        
Carlos Marmol 10/14/82 R-R 6'2" 215 9.8              
Trey McNutt 8/2/89 R-R 6'4" 220                
Brooks Raley 6/29/88 L-L 6'3" 185                
Hector Rondon 2/26/88 R-R 6'3" 180                
Chris Rusin 10/22/86 L-L 6'2" 195                
James Russell 1/8/86 L-L 6'4" 200 Arb 1              
Jeff Samardzija 1/23/85 R-R 6'5" 225 Arb 1              
Carlos Villanueva 11/28/83 R-R 6'2" 235 5 5            
Arodys Vizcaino 11/13/90 R-R 6'0" 190                
Robert Whitenack 11/20/88 R-R 6'5" 185                
Travis Wood 2/6/87 R-L 5'11" 175                
Catchers DOB B/T Ht Wt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Welington Castillo 4/24/87 R-R 5'10" 210                
Steve Clevenger 4/5/86 L-R 6'0" 195                
Dioner Navarro 2/9/84 S-R 5'9" 205 1.75              
Infielders DOB B/T Ht Wt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Darwin Barney 11/8/85 R-R 5'10" 185                
Starlin Castro 3/24/90 R-R 6'0" 190 5 5 6 7 9 10 11 16
Junior Lake 3/27/90 R-R 6'2" 215                
Anthony Rizzo 8/8/89 L-L 6'3" 220                
Ian Stewart 4/5/85 L-R 6'3" 215 Arb 2              
Luis Valbuena 11/30/85 L-R 5'10" 195                
Christian Villanueva 6/19/91 R-R 5'11" 160                
Josh Vitters 8/27/89 R-R 6'2" 200                
Logan Watkins 8/29/89 L-R 5'11" 170                
Outfielders DOB B/T Ht Wt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
David DeJesus 12/20/79 L-L 5'11" 190 4.25 6.5            
Scott Hairston 5/25/80 R-R 6'0" 205 2.5 2.5            
Brett Jackson 8/2/88 L-R 6'2" 210                
Dave Sappelt 1/2/87 R-R 5'9" 195                
Nate Schierholtz 2/15/84 L-R 6'1" 205 2.25              
Jorge Soler 2/25/92 R-R 6'3" 205 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33
Alfonso Soriano 1/7/76 R-R 6'1" 195 18 18            
Matt Szczur 7/20/89 R-R 6'1" 195                

I used to enjoy taking a look at how much the Cubs were scheduled to be paying out and how much they might have left based on a realistic estimated payroll. This was fun for me becuase if I knew how much money they had, I could estimate how many wins they could buy. Buying wins is a lot more fun when the wins actually mean something and the Cubs have no intention of buying wins now. They're trying to buy wins for later through the farm system and maybe getting lucky here or there.

Knowing how much the Cubs already have under contract is kind of irrelevant at this point except unless I'm interested in bookkeeping. I'm not.

This will probably be my last look at the Cubs roster in this way. I was never very good at updating it throughout the season, but it had always been available on the menu here and at ACB. And I had always taken a thorough look prior to the next season. Usually more than a couple times. This post will find its way onto the menu until later in the 2013 season. I might again be interested in this, but it won't be until keeping track of the money provides some incentive for me to do so. The Cubs will suck in 2013 and in all reality 2014 too. Maybe in 2015 and 2016. It's going to be awhile before this team contends and there's no point in figuring out how many wins the Cubs can buy. It just doesn't do anything for me when the Cubs won't be buying those wins.

The Way We Were- A look back at Logan Watkins in 2012

My fellow eFriends, I have returned from my sabbatical and will be writing up a few prospect recaps for some of the more interesting Cubs minor leaguers. So enjoy that.

Logan Watkins was drafted in the 21st round of the 2008 draft. He was a HS stud from Goddard KS which is a town as exactly small as it sounds. He was sent off to AZ for his age 18 season and in 107 AB's showed he was advanced for rookie ball. Watkins hit .325/.462/.363 (.414 wOBA, 140 wRC+) while playing 2B and some LF.

The following season he was promoted to the next level, a trend he has followed every single season thus far. In Boise Watkins put up a wRC+ of 118 which is pretty great for a 19 year old. It was pretty much the with a slash line similar to his AZ campaign, high BA, good eye at the plate but little to no slugging. However it was a good enough year that following the season Watkins made it to # 12 on John Sickels prospect list. He primarily stuck at 2B during his time in Boise but the following season in Peoria would see 22 games in CF and 19 at SS.

Peoria was the only stop where Watkins has struggled so far as his BA plummeted to .265. His wRC+ was 97 and he still was showing no power at all so I remember thinking at best he was going to be a utility at some point. However, to his credit he still had a OBP around 90 points higher than his BA. His good approach was still keeping him somewhat productive at the plate and any Cub prospect who can tell balls and strikes is a rarity in itself.

Watkins was promoted to Daytona the following year and while he was no longer even mentioned on Sickels prospect rankings he got himself back on track. His .281/.352/.404 line probably did set the world on fire but he finally was showing the ability to hit for extra bases. He hit 5 HR's and raised his wRC + to 111 in a pitcher friendly league. He also started to be more effective on the base paths stealing at a 21/26 rate.

This year Watkins continued his one level at a time progression spending the season at AA Tennessee. It was his best season so far as he posted a wRC+ of 130 while spending time at CF, SS in addition to 95 games at 2B. Watkins hit 9 home runs and 11 triples on his way to posting a .422 slugging %. He stole 28 bases in 35 attempts and continued his patient approach posting an OBP of .383. He was rewarded for his efforts by being named the Cubs minor league player of the year in addition to picking up mentions from ESPN and the hometown Wichita Eagle as a prospect on the rise. 

So now that we recapped what he's done the question is where is he going to end up.

Personally, I think Watkins is the 2B of the future. I enjoy Darwin Barney as much as the next guy but the fact of the matter is he can't hit worth a shit. As soon as he starts making millions in the arb process I think TheoJed finds a new team for the gold glover and promotes Watkins. Since Watkins has continued to play multiple positions at every level perhaps a year as a utility guy could be in the works to acclimate him to the bigs. For me the ETA is late 2013 with him being up for good starting in 2014. I like the fact that he does a little of everything, is a left handed bat and by all accounts is a leader in the clubhouse.

If he pans out he would give us a cost controlled 2B through the through the end of the decade and would be making league minimum through 2016/2017. He could definitely be a part of the next contending core group. Plus he's from KS so that's worth like +20 on the intangible scale.

However, he does not come from an organization like the Toronto Blue Jays so he's got one strike against him already.

Sources- Wichita Eagle, milb.com, Fangraphs, ESPN, Baseball Ref,

The Children Are Our Future – Minor League Update Sponsored by TGI Friday’s

AZL Cubs

Shawon Dunston, Jr.'s minor league career has not gotten off to a fast start. He was 0-4 last night. After spending 71 plate appearances at Boise he was demoted to the AZL Cubs where he's been an improved hitter, but nothing that gets you excited. On the season he's hit .228/.291/.347. Albert Almora was 1-4 with a double and now has 3 hits in 17 at-bats. Jorge Soler was 2-4 and after 6 games he's hitting .292/.320/.542. Lendy Castillo threw 4 solid innings on assignment after contracting David Patton Syndrome. The Cubs will have to activate Castillo within 14 days or they have to offer him back to Philly. Considering he's been in the AZL for two weeks, I don't think the Cubs care one way or the other. Nor should they.

Boise

Gioskar Amaya was 2-5 with a triple and is now hitting .322/.388/.534. He and Marco Hernandez were similarly ranked by evaluators prior to this season, but Amaya has separated himself from Hernandez who was 2-4 last night, but after a miserable time in Peoria, he only has a .600 OPS at Boise. Hernandez was playing SS while Amaya was at 2nd last night. Dan Vogelbach has 8 hits in 4 games and 3 of them are doubles. Dude can hit. 

Peoria

Wes Darvill was 2-4, but isn't hitting very well. Javier Baez continues to do what Baez does. He was 2-3 with a home run and a walk. The home run was the 11th of the season in just 50 games. He's added 8 doubles and 5 triples too. He's OPS'ing over 1.000 now. Zach Cates threw 5.1 innings, allowed 3 hits while striking out 7 and walking just 1. Sheldon McDonald and combined for 3.2 innings allowing just 2 hits, no runs, walking nobody and striking nobody out.

Daytona

Ronald Torreyes was hitless and the Daytona Cubs just got a less less interesting when Jae-Hoon Ha when unfortunately injured. Matt Szczur was promoted to AA to take his spot so there's not much to talk about with this team in my opinion. Robert Whitenack had a solid start, which reduced his ERA to 6.63 so there's that. 

Tennessee

Szczur led off and played CF last night, but was 0-4 with a couple strikeouts. His promotion was deserved on its own and it's unfortunate how he got to Tennessee, but he's there. He hit better than anyone could have expected at Daytona. He transformed himself into one of the organization's more patient hitters (13.4% walk rate) and he has the tools to play CF and be a productive leadoff hitter at the big league level. Junior Lake was 2-4 with a couple doubles and is now hitting .293/.343/.438. Greg Rohan and Juan Apodaca each added a couple hits and Logan Watkins had 1. Zach Rosscup struckout 6 in 3.2 innigns of relief and didn't allow a hit. He did allow a couple walks and a couple runs. 

Iowa

Not sure why it's even said anymore, but Brett Jackson struckout again last night. Just once this time. He's struckout in 10 consecutive games and has totaled 17 strikeouts over that time. July 17th is the only game in July in which he's played and didn't strikeout. Jackson's game log on First Inning goes back to June 21st and that July 17th game is the only game he didn't strikeout. Josh Vitters was 1-4 with a walk and some guy named Chris Volstad, can't be the Chris Volstad, actually pitched a very good game. He threw 8 scoreless innings, allowed 4 hits, 3 walks and 5 strikeouts. 

Obstructed View’s Top 20 Cubs Prospects

1. Brett Jackson OF AAA

The Math —  The 23 year old, 2009 1st round pick has a slash line .261/.339/.494. Astronomical strikeout rate (33.8%), but he still has a 114 wRC+.

The Good — Despite the K's Jackson has still been a productive player. He gets a ton of XHB's with his speed and has plenty of pop from CF. He steals bases very well. Plays a prime position and is one correction away from being a potential superstar.

The Bad — Strikes out like the love child of Adam Dunn & Mark Reynolds. His contact problem only seems to be getting worse. Walk rate is down as well.

Prediciton — Will finish the year in Iowa and maybe get a cup of coffee in Sept. Will win a starting job in 2013. Don't see a productive future for him unless he can get that K rate back to at least 25-30%. Likely hits in the .240/.320/.450 range. Maybe a couple 20/20 seasons. 

2. Javier Baez SS A

The Math — 19 years old. 2011 1st Round Pick. Slash line .303/.375/.484. wRC+ 160. He already has 13 stolen bases and has been caught just once.

The Good – Everything so far. He is even more impressive when you watch him play. Great swing and works the count to his favor. High energy player.

The Bad — Doesn't walk as much as you would like. A little swing a miss to his game. Too early to see any major flaws.

Prediction — Who the hell knows with a younger player, but considering an entire industry has sprung up to provide this very guesswork let me say that the only thing keeping Baez out of the top spot is that I tend to skew towards guys who have done well at the upper levels of the minors vs potential and projection. That said, Baez seems to possess all the tools necessary to become a big leaguer. I think we see him in Daytona next year or maybe in AA if he really takes off. Scouts believe he'll be moved to 3rd base, but he has more than enough bat to play there.

3. Jorge Soler OF AZL

The Math –– 20 years old. 2012 Int'l Free Agent. Huge contract.

The Good — Scouts love him. He looks like a ballplayer. 

The Bad — Nobody has seen him play yet. Its all projection.

Prediction — MB and I talked about not putting guys like Pierce Johnson or Almora on the list even though by virtue of having a heartbeat Johnson would be a top 5 arm in our system but I couldn't resist with Soler. I was a major bandwagon supporter for this guy and I like the fact that the scouts that BA & KG talk to both thought this guy was a top 10 pick. So lets just be conservative and say he will hit HR's the way Billy Hamilton steals bases.

4. Matt Szczur OF A+

The Math — 22 years old. 5th round in the 2010 draft. Large signing bonus. Improved walk rate leading to an OBP 100 points higher than his .273 average. Batting line is .273/.373/.383, which is good for a 126 wRC+. He's stolen 28 bases already this year and was voted the Midwest League's best defensive outfielder in 2011.

The Good — You have to love the fact that we are seeing an increase in walks as the level of competition increases. Especially considering this is his 2nd full year as a pro player. When you take a raw athlete like Szczur was out of college what you hope to see are adjustments as they focus and learn more about baseball and so far we have. Very good at stealing bases and plays an athletic CF.

The Bad — Not a lot of power so far. Have seen reports that talk about how he uses his athletic ability to get to balls in CF vs running the correct route. 

Prediction — Both of us are pretty high on this guy right now. I could see him being the leadoff hitter going into the 2014 season.

5. Josh Vitters 3B AAA

The Math — 22 years old. Drafted in the 1st round of the 2007 draft. Batting .302/.356/.509 with a wRC+ of 115. He's improved his walk rate to 6.7% while his strikeout rate remains what it's been the last 2 years. His .207 ISO is his best since it was .219 in 2009 (hadn't topped .180 since).

The Good — His production never dropped off a cliff as he advanced. He has been young at every level so far. Blossoming at the right time. Scouts have always raved about his swing.

The Bad — Never shown this kind of production before. Defense still a question mark at 3B and will never hit enough to be a force at 1B. Walk rate is still low. While he's young he's been in the minor leagues since 2007. Age is important, but so is service time. On the plus side, he's never stalled at any level. 

Prediction — Call me (dylanj) a Vitters believer. I think we have found a guy who will give us league average or better production at the league minimum for the next several years. Vitters wasn't a reach at 3, scouts always loved him (said he was the best high school bat in the country) and I think he will prove them right starting in 2013 when he locks down the starting 3B job.

6. Jeimer Candelario 3B A-

The Math –– 18 years old. 2010 International Free Agent. Born in the US, but moved to Dominican Republic. Baseball America says if he'd stayed in the US he'd have been drafted in the 1st round in the draft last month. Instead, the Cubs got him for $500,000, which is a bargain compared to what a team would have spent in the draft. All he's done so far is crush professional pitching. He's batting .337/.379/.517, which is good for a wRC+ of 174.

The Good — Everything so far. He's killed it at every level. One of the youngest players for his team at every level as well.

The Bad — Only been at two levels. Has a stiff body and won't stay at 3B so will need to keep hitting to keep value in LF or 1B. 

Prediction — This guy has as much potential as anybody in our system. He has what you want to find which is great stats to verify the love scouts show him. He is also doing it at a young age. He's too far away to make any MLB debut prediction but like Baez he has the tools needed to be an impact player.

7. Junior Lake SS AA

The Math — 22 years old. International Draft. He's hitting .286/.335/.404 (104 wRC+). He walked a lot early in the season and flashed a lot of power, but has since reverted to the guy who doesn't walk much and doesn't hit for much power. Still 22 and already in AA though.

The Good — At times has flashed about every tool you can. Incredible physical makeup. Strongest arm in the Cubs system IF or OF.

The Bad — Has never put together a complete season. Doesn't walk enough. Still a poor SS. 

Prediction — Really hard to say. I think the Cubs give him another year as a position player to make it or flame out before moving him the mound. He has a absolute cannon for an arm.

8. Dan Vogelbach 1B AZL

The Math — 19 year old drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft. All he's doing is hitting .331/.391/.629 (156 wRC+). Not even 100 plate appearances in his career so far so it's difficult to know how good he really is, but the guy can hit.

The Good — Scouts loved the bat coming out of the draft. Has hit so far. Lost some of the weight he had as a HS player.

The Bad — He's still a fat, questionable defensive 1B playing in the NL. Which means he needs to hit like a motherfucker to ever matter. 

Prediction — He hits well enough next year that he becomes a trade chip to an AL team and the Cubs move him.

9. Gioskar Amaya SS A-

The Math –– He posted a .377/.417/.510 line last year in the AZL (136 wRC+), but that was in large part because of .458 BABIP. He's been at Boise this season (minus one game at AAA) and has seen his BABIP dip nearly 100 points, but he's increased his walk rate slightly and has about the same strikeout rate. Despite the much lower BABIP, Amaya is hitting .306/.359/.482. That's good for a .399 wOBA and a wRC+ (151) even better than last year. Not a slugger, but has an ISO of .176. 

The Good — Hits the ball very well. Has produced everywhere he has been so far.

The Bad — Not a lot of power there. Needs to improve the walk rate. 

Prediction — Peoria next year. 

10. Ben Wells SP A (disabled list)

The Math — 19 year old drafted in the 7th round of the 2010 draft. Only 2.2 BB/9 in his first taste of pro ball last season and a nice 3.51 FIP. This season he'd increased his strikeout rate and also decreased his BB/9 below 2. He was having a fantastic season. He only had 3 starts this year last 5 innings or longer (longest was 5.2 innings). 

The Good — All his advanced stats are trending in the right direction even as he moves up in the system. Adding velocity to his pitches. Really heavy sinker could play well in Wrigley if he ever gets there.

The Bad — His elbow has exploded. Don't know if we will get the same guy back.

Prediction — We won't really know what we have here until 2014.Keep your fingers crossed.

11. Welington Castillo C AAA

The Math — 25 year old international free agent. He's been on the Cubs 40-man roster since 2010 and is more than likely out of options after this season. Batting .247/.395/.393 this year in AAA. Last year in AAA he accrued a lot of his value through power (.238 ISO), but this year it's been his ability to get on base (.153 ISO). He's been in AAA for parts of seasons going back to 2008. 

The Good — Has done about all you can in the minors by being a productive guy year in and year out. Had at taste of MLB action.

The Bad — May not be better than Clevenger. Probably not an everyday catcher. 

Prediciton — Should form a good tandem with Clevenger once Soto leaves. Expect to see him up full time starting next season.

12. Marco Hernandez SS A-

The Math — 19 year old international free agent. His .861 OPS in rookie ball last season (and his position) is why he's here. He's slumped this season. In 2008 the Cubs rookie team had Starlin Castro and Junior Lake split time and both made the league's top 20 prospects for Baseball America. In 2011 they had a couple other shortstops splitting time who made the same list in Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez. He has potential, but hasn't hit well after the promotion this year.

The Good — Best true SS in our system. Still young for his level.

The Bad — Has been pretty much awful this year. 

Prediction — Will probably head back to Peoria once Baez gets promoted. 

13. PJ Francescon SP A+

The Math – 23 year old drafted in the 40th round of the 2011 draft. He had an excellent pro debut last year striking out over 27% of the batters and walking under 5%. Strikeout rate has dropped to 15.8% in High A and the walk rate remains solid at just over 6%. He allowed only 4.7 hits per 9 in Peoria this year, but it's jumped to 9.2 in Daytona. He's a little old for Daytona, but was a late round pick who completed 4 years of college. 

The Good — Dominated Peoria earlier this year. Stuff seems to be improving. 

The Bad — Hasn't been nearly as good in Daytona so far. Small sample size but a 5.94 K/9 isn't going to cut it. 

Prediction — Will continue to be the best healthy starter we have by default until some of 2012 guys get their feet wet. Will probably start the year in Daytona next season.

14. Alberto Cabrera RP AAA

The Math — The 23 year old international free agent was a starter last season and not a very good one. He was converted to the bullpen this year and there's really only two things you need to know: he's thrown only 45.1 innings between AA and AAA and his K-BB% is .25. He has struckout 30.9% of the batters he faced this season and walked (plus hit by pitches) 5.9%. This is AA/AAA, but to give you an idea how good this is, the best reliever in history (Mariano Rivera) had his best season in 1996 and his K-BB% was .226. I'm not comparing him to Mo. That would be silly. I'm just providing a reference point for those unfamiliar with a good K-BB%. 

The Good — Has been totally filthy since moving the bullpen. Video game numbers. Keith Law described his fastball as one of the best he's seen from any prospect period. 97 mph with plus plus sink.

The Bad — It's only been about 50 IP so we don't have  big track record here. Law also said he lacked a true secondary pitch.

Prediction — We will see him in the pen this year. 

15. Ronald Torreyes 2B A+

The Math — 19 year old international free agent was the high upside player the Cubs received in the Sean Marshall trade. His only bad stint up to this season was 68 PA in 2010. He then tore that league up last year and had a 144 wRC+. He got off to a slow start this year, but has started hitting of late (season wRC+ of 91). He's young for Daytona too. His 4.6% walk rate in A ball last year has jumped to 7.6% this year in the more difficult league. His strikeout rate is just 6.6% and he's been a victim of BABIP this season (.240). 

The Good — Has really hit at every level despite being young. Walk rate improved this year. 

The Bad — It seems that his bat fell of a cliff this year but his BABIP is .240. Its always been over .350 before this season. 

Prediction — I'm still a big believer in this guy's bat. Before this season his career #'s were damn similar to Starlin Castro's. He's a long way from the majors but I think he is the best 2B prospect we have. I hope he gets a crack at AA next season but wouldn't be surprised if they make him repeat the level.

16. Michael Burgess OF AA

The Math –– The 23 year old was drafted in the 1st round by the Washington Nationals in 2007. The Cubs acquired him for Tom Gorzelanny. Burgess has been an above average hitter his entire career and this year in AA is no different. His .368 wOBA is good for a 126 wRC+. He got an 87 PA taste of AA in 2010 with the Nationals and struckout in 30% of his plate appearances. This year it's down to 15.9% and he walks in over 9% his plate appearances. He has the organization's strongest arm in the outfield and while his power is down a bit this year, Jim Bowden once called it "thunderous". 

The Good —  Been productive at every level. Cut down the K's. Always had a decent walk rate.

The Bad — Repeating AA. Old for the level. Might be an org type player. 

Prediction — Burgess is a hard guy to evaluate. On the numbers alone he seems pretty legit but the fact that nobody like BA or BP talks about this guy might mean scouts see something we don't. He needs to head on up to Iowa. 

17. Arismendy Alcantara SS A+

The Math — 20 year old international free agent is hitting .306/.341/.453 in a league with a .701 OPS. His wOBA and wRC+ is .367 and 128. Alcantara joins Javier Baez, Junior Lake, Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez on our list of shortstops. The Cubs are rich in talent up the middle. Arguments could be made for Alcantara being higher on this list. 

The Good — Terrific offense for the Florida State League at a premium position.  Excellent basestealer. 

The Bad — I've never heard anyone say his defense was even average. Scouts don't seem to be that excited by him.

Prediction — He gets bumped up to AA next season. 

18. Logan Watkins 2B AA

The Math — 22 year old drafted in the 21st round of the 2008 draft is from the home state (KS) of the two people writing this post. With the exception of 2010, Watkins numbers have been above average everywhere he's played. He has a solid walk rate of 11.4% and a decent strikeout rate (16.8%). He doesn't hit for a lot of power (career .378 slugging), but he does have above average speed. He's stolen 72 bases in his career and already has 16 this year (5 shy of the most he's had in his career in a season). He wasn't a great base-stealer early in his career, but the last 2 seasons he's stolen 37 bases and only been caught 9 times. After hitting all of 1 home run in his first 3 seasons he's muscled up and combined to hit 9 over the last 2. 

The Good — Plays multiple positions. Does a little bit of everything offensively. 

The Bad — Doesn't excel at anything. May not hit enough to make the bigs.

Prediction — Watkins could turn out to be a nice utility player. We will see him in Iowa in 2013. 

19. Zach Rosscup RP AA

The Math –– The 24 year old was drafted by the Rays in the 28th round of the 2009 draft. He's 24 already and hasn't even thrown 150 innings in his career, but the results have been there. Prior to this season he had FIPs of 2.38, 2.85, 1.83 and 3.50 at his various stops. He hasn't allowed a run this season, but has only thrown 9 innings. 

The Good – Was pretty good as a starter in Daytona last year and got hurt. Just recently made his debut working out of the pen so far this year and has been filthy. Has pitched well every at every level he has been at.

The Bad — Old for his level. Has trouble staying healthy. 

Prediction — If he can stay healthy and pitch like he has he will be the greatest pitcher of all time. This has a 0.00001% chance of happening. Let's just hope he can stay healthy for now.

20. Trey McNutt SP AA

The Math — The 23 year old was drafted in the 32nd round of the 2009 draft. He quickly took to pro ball and dominated the low minors (through High A). A big warning sign sounded in his brief 15.2 inning stint at AA as his strikeout rate plummeted from over 10 to just 7.5. Despite that, his career numbers were awesome to that point and he was ranked as the 48th prospect in baseball entering 2011. Since then he's remained at AA and has seen his strikeout rate drop 3 years in a row while his walk rate has gone the wrong direction too. 

The Good — Still has good stuff as I've heard the fastball is still in the mid 90's with a big breaking ball. This should translate well to the bullpen.

The Bad — Just totally fell off this year. At best we are looking a pen arm. 

Prediction — Becomes a serviceable relief pitcher. In Chicago by next year. Could pitch in the upper 90s out of the pen.