Journeymen of Tomorrow: Week 6 Prospect Watch

Sorry it's late, and sorry about Week 5. I'd say it won't happen again, but with Leah on the warpath, I'd probably be lying.

AAA

Brett Jackson 2: Des Moines Nights has been incrementally better than he was two weeks ago. His peripherals are still bad (8.7%, 28.3% BB/K) and his BABIP is still .358, but he's good for a .259/.341/.432 slash which is league average for the PCL. He still has basically no chance at sticking as a starter in the outfield with his toolkit.

Logan Watkins has kept up an impressive walk rate (18.5%), something he's always been able to do but never to this degree. His ISO keeps climbing as he ages, as does his K rate (23.3%). The strikeout rate is not nearly as concerning as it normally would be given Watkins' apparently affinity for working deep in counts, but I would still not like to see it climb much higher. At .237/.384/.407 in AAA, he's got a wRC+ of 111, but his line is too unique given his low rate of balls in play that I don't put a tremendous stock in it. dmick89 is of the opinion that he'd be called up before Vitters at this point, and given his utility I'm not sure I disagree (though I think the Cubs think higher of Watkins at this point than Vitters and would want him to play every day).

Josh Vitters only has 44 PA on the year, and they haven't been particularly productive (.225/.295/.400). His balls haven't fallen in for hits and his peripherals are actually quite decent so far this year. Give me another 100 PA before I can tell you for sure how he's doing.

Nick Struck has had a terrible year this season, and he'd be in critical danger of being demoted to AA if the other starters hadn't been just as putrid as he's been. He just isn't getting strikeouts and he's giving up home runs at a rate unlike any he's had in his career. He's the owner of a 6.85 ERA and a 5.99 FIP, and in 5 starts he's only reached the 6th inning once.

AA

Ronald Torreyes has 103 PA so far this year, so we can start to glean a little information from his start. He's been wonderful so far, with a 14/6 BB/SO ratio and a .288/.408/.375 line. His power is down a bit from previous years, but other than that he's been as good as advertised if not better. The Marshall trade keeps looking like it was a very good one.

Arismendy Alcantara has been rather frustrating this seaons. His walks have actually gone up this year (as have his strikeouts), but his BABIP has dipped precipitously (to a still-normal .292). His speed is still there, as is his power, so the question really is whether or not his .292 (and not his ~.340) BABIP is the new normal. If so, and it is more likely than not, Alcantara really takes a hit in prospect status, ESPECIALLY if he can't stick at SS, which is a legitimate question.

Christian Villanueva continues to disappoint with his bat. He's stuck at .239/.308/.350 with relatively unchanged peripherals. He may just be outmatched, like many fringe-100 prospects are at AA. 

Matt Szczur has resumed his power outage, now with a .287/.365/.372 line on the season. His ISO sits at the lowest it's ever been at any point in his career.

Jae-Hoon Ha has been injured for a little bit, but before he left he had a .305/.408/.402 line. He hasn't had any power at all this year, but not only kept the plate discipline from last season but expanded upon it. I guess you're third tour of duty in AA will do that for you.

Kyle Hendricks was a player I was bullish on last year and so far I've been rewarded. He had a rough start to the year, but has turned it on lately. His ERA (2.63) and FIP (2.56) aren't far apart, and he's been unlucky if anything to start the season. He's not going to blow anyone away with his stuff but he could end up at the back of a rotation without too much trouble. He should find himself in AAA before the year is out. 

Until Tony Zych can strike out more batters than he walks, I'm no longer putting him on the list.

A+

Javier Baez has struggled at A+ for 229 PA now (over 2 seasons). The time to worry a little is fast approaching. This year, his BB/SO ratio is 5/42, and that 42 is good for a 29.4% rate. An awesome .244 ISO still puts him at 107 wRC+ for the season but it's so clearly unsustainable that I don't care how good his power is, he'll never put the ball in play.

It's time to hitch our wagons to the Jorge Soler hype-train. Like Baez, he has an elite ISO at A+. Unlike Baez, he has some plate discipline. He has an 11.2% walk rate and a 15.0% K rate, both pretty good. That's lead to a .290/.374/.559 line which is good for 7th in the FSL in terms of wOBA (.410). Only one player above him is 21 or younger, the 20-year old Miguel Sano (who also is the only player in the league that has more power than he does and is likely the only larger prospect). I'd love to see the Cubs FO promote him to AA.

Stephen Bruno has been banged up. He still sits at an unsustainable .362/.436/.478, in 78 PA. 

Zeke DeVoss flashed power earlier this year but hasn't followed up on it. His ISO is back to .124 and with it his line has eroded to .200/.375/.324. He just isn't a great prospect anymore, though I like surprises.

Ben Wells has been exquisitely mediocre.

Starling Peralta has to be injured or something. He's been absolutely disgustingly bad so far. 

A

Dillon Maples made his triumphant return to the game of baseball last week! I look forward to seeing him not be injured if at all possible. 

Pierce Johnson has been quite good so far. His ERA is 3.77 but his FIP is 2.47, and he's been all sorts of unlucky both with BABIP and strand rates. I'd like to seem him go deeper in starts but he has to be on a pitch count or something.

Gioskar Amaya has been the most disappointing Cubs prospect of the year. His line is now at .228/.258/.317, and he's backslid in every conceivable way. 

Jeimer Candelario sits at a .229/.352/.331 line so far. He's still young, but at that pace he'll probably end up repeating A ball. The plate discipline is there but his balls aren't falling in for hits. I couldn't tell you why because MILB.tv doesn't show games in A ball, yet.

Marco Hernandez needs to hit a lot more than he has this year. He's repeating A ball and doing as bad if not worse this year than last. It's going to be game over really quickly, and I'm dropping him from the prospect lists pretty soon. 

Dan Vogelbach's strength is finally, finally returning. He's at .288/.366/.448 on the year, with a 11.7% walk rate and a 12.4% K rate. His ISO is .160; still far away from what we'd expect, but it's been climbing rapidly. It would not surprise me if he ended the season with a line something like .310/.400/.540, which would be more than adequate given his struggles at the end of the year.

Rock Shoulders has a sweet name, and by POPULAR DEMAND I've included him here. He's also earned it, pretty much. He plays in the outfield which was a concern previously; it definitely makes him slightly more intriguing a prospect. He's crushed A-ball to the tune of .317/.400/.585, good for a wOBA of .441 (171 wRC+). At 21, you're really hoping that he gets promoted with some regularity; he's done a level a year which is more than fine for now. He needs to watch his strikeouts, but his patience at the plate has some to do with that (12.1% walks, 24.3% strikeouts).

Performance of the Week

Zach Rosscup had 3 appearances last week. In those appearances, he pitched 5.1 innings, allowed 2 hits, 1 walk, and struck out 7. On the season, his ERA is 1.08 in 16.2 innings pitched, with a SO/BB ratio of 25/5.

Prospect Performance of the Week

It's easy to give it to Jorge Soler here, so I will. Over the past 10, he's hit .314/.405/.771 with 3 HR, 1 3B, and 5 2B.

Journeymen of Tomorrow: Week 4 Prospect Watch

Each Saturday, I'm going to summarize the weekly performance top prospects at each level. Hopefully, this will give more of a snapshot of how our future Cubs are doing.

AAA

Brett Jackson 2: The Golden (Sombrero) Army is cooked. His peripherals are bad (8.5% BB, 32.2% K), he's hit-lucky (.375 BABIP), and he's still well under league-average at AAA. I'm pretty sure the dream of him ever putting together 150 starts in a season at the MLB level is over completely.

Logan Watkins almost has as many walks as strikeouts (21 to 24). His rate on each is ridiculous (23.1% and 26.4%). Without the power to make major-league pitching fear you, his walk rate is going to fall precipitiously (meanwhile, his strikeouts will likely increase). For that reason, I'm still a little concerned. It's also worth noting that his strikeout rate has never been nearly this high before (he's in the 16-19%) range. That's not great but it's not anathema to success, either. All things considered, a line of .243/.418/.429 is really good but not as great as it might seem. I'd say that Watkins would probably hit for a .210/.300/.360 line in the majors right now.

Josh Vitters is still injured.

Nick Struck has looked pretty poor this year. His FIP is in line with last year's (where his E-F was negative), so there might not truly be a reduced skillset, but he's striking out 4 batters in 15 innings. It's still crazily early to get any meaningful conclusions from 15 innings, though.

AA

Ronald Torreyes is going to be in prospect posts from now on. On the season, he's batting .333/.457/.444, good for a .422 wOBA on the year. He's struck out one time in 49 PA. I don't think he's going to keep that up (also unstainable given his history: a 14.3% walk rate).

Arismendy Alcantara has picked up where he left off last year. His wOBA is the same (.355 from .356), his ISO is up slightly (.145 to .159), and his line hasn't meaningfully changed in spite of a BABIP normalization. It's not all roses: Arismendy's K rate is approaching critical levels (22.8% in AA isn't far behind Brett Jackson), but he's offset that somewhat with an increased walk rate. 

Christian Villanueva is still having quite a rough year. His line (.218/.291/.333) is still Barney-esque, and that's not going to cut it. He has reduced his errors, though. That's good.

Matt Szczur continues to turn in a solid performance. After a power outage to begin the season, Szczur has worked his way up to a more-than-respectable line of .293/.368/.415. Crazily enough, the Smokies' outfield has been so good he still has the worst wRC+ of the group (at 132, it's still 12th among outfielders in the Southern League).

I'm including Jae-Hoon Ha in my lists now. He's clearly earned it and I'm big enough to admit that I was pretty wrong on him earlier. Sure, he's been hit-lucky this year. He still carries a .312/.413/.377 line. His power has been sapped this year and I expect it to return; when that happens, his line could get even better. He's walking a lot more this year than last (12.8% this year, 9.8% last year, 4.5% the year before). That's a step in the right direction.

Kyle Hendricks was kind of my darkhorse prospect pick this year. He hasn't completely borne it out yet, but he's still only 20 innings into the season. His FIP of 3.40 is fine, but his ERA is 4.05 (he's stranded only 67.7% of baserunners).

Tony Zych had a disastrous week. He's now walked twice as many batters as he's struck out, and his LOB% is only 47.1%. That's good for a 5.91 ERA off of a 4.61 FIP.

A+

Javier Baez is on the comeback trail. His line sits at .253/.283/.495. There are still some obvious issues with his game (and if he doesn't improve his patience, he's going to stop being a prospect at all very quickly), but he still has the upper-tier potential that scouts usually drool over. As for me, I hope they trade him soon in a package for someone more certain.

Jorge Soler has not been as great as he was before the suspension. I'm not at all worried, though, as his .276/.354/.431 line is still more than adequate for his level and experience.

Stephen Bruno has kept murdering the ball. He's still the owner of a .355/.437/.468 line this season, good for a .420 wOBA and a 9th place showing on the FSL leaderboard. Enjoy it while you can: his BABIP is .468.

Zeke DeVoss is interesting with respect to his SLG being lower than his OBP. On the other hand, his ISO is .164, so .247/.427/.411 really isnt so bad. His line is way more sustainable than Bruno's, and DeVoss has done really well so far this year. There really are a good deal of position prospects on the Cubs right now.

Ben Wells has been boring and serviceable so far. I don't know what more to say about him. 

Starling Peralta didn't pitch this week.

A

Pierce Johnson has rebounded from his first start being poor to have 3 consecutive good starts in a row. He's quickly showing that he's probably to good for A-ball, which is exactly what you want to see from such a heralded pick. He's 22 so look for an aggresive promotion; in fact, I'd be surprised if he WASN'T in Daytona by midseason.

Gioskar Amaya has REALLY struggled this year. He's lost his power and his patience, and his strikeouts continue to climb. I had him as the #6 prospect in the Cubs system last year and had this to say:

#6 (80) Gioskar Amaya 2B

I'm a huge Amaya fan. His plate discipline has always been solid (9% walk rate), and his power has developed every year. It's not common for 2B to put up ISOs of .200, but Amaya did last year. He's got to work on fighting his strikeouts, but the combination of speed, power, and patience make Amaya a potential great at 2B in the (distant) future.

I still believe in him, but he's got to show some of his old talents and fast. 2B is stacked everywhere in front of him (Watkins/Torreyes/DeVoss), so it's not a huge blow if he crashes and burns, but I like the kid's game and though he could be the best of them all.

Jeimer Candelario has seen his power and BABIP drop for the second consecutive year. He's walking a ton and his strikeouts are manageable, but he needs to flash some of the power he showed in 2011 if he wants to play a corner infield position.

Marco Hernandez continues to rebound after a poor performance to start the season. He sits at .266/.294/.359 on the season, which is about where he ended up last year. That'll obviously need to keep improving, especially given his decreased ability in the field this year.

We're all still waiting for Daniel Vogelbach to turn on the power at Kane County. His ISO sits at a meager .092 on the season, the primary driver of his .289/.337/.382 line. I expect him to still turn it on as the season progresses, and on a positive note, all accounts say he looks better at first this year. 

Performance of the Week

Ryan Sweeney definitely deserves to be in Chicago over Dave Sappelt right now. Over the past 10 games, Sweeney has crushed the ball to the tune of .378/.425/.757, with 3 HR, 2 3B, and 2 BB. I don't expect that he's going to be incredible, but Sappelt is really struggling right now so you might as well give Sweeney a shot. Best case scenario, you find some trade value you didn't have before, or even a credible replacement when our OF is inevitably shipped out for spare parts.

Prospect Performance of the Week

Pierce Johnson had 2 starts this week and allowed 0 earned runs in them. His line for the two starts: 10.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 13 SO. Hard to do much better than that!

The Children Are the Future- Cubs Minor League Update Sponsored by Phillip Morris

Iowa

It was a sloppy game for the Iowa Cubs as Vitters, Rizzo and Cardenas each committed an error. Brett Jackson went 1-5 with a triple and Nate Robertson continued his inspired campaign to be released within the first month.

Smokies

Rain Out

Daytona

There's just no way to sugarcoat it- Hayden Simpson was awful tonight. His final line was 2.2 IP 6H 6 ER and 4 BB to no strikes and a HR allowed. He worked from behind all night with a fastball between 85-87 mph. We all know the mono case and the elbow injury from last year but the bottom line is this- if the kid isn't right (and I don't see how he can be considering he has lost 10 mph off his fastball in less than 2 years) then shut him down until he gets better. He isn't learning anything from getting destroyed and until he is throwing harder than a 40 year old middle reliever its not going to get much better. Now, I was surprised to see that the future Mrs. Hayden Simpson responded to one of my tweets to Daytona announcers concerning Hayden's weight loss and we struck up a chat. She seems like a very nice person and apparently Hayden is slowly gaining weight back and really trying to get back to where he was in college. And honestly, despite the snark that Simpson gets around here its not his fault that the Cubs drafted the guy so early and its not his fault they continue to send him out to the wolves. I had really hoped the Theo/Jed regime would handle him a little better but at this point there isn't much reason to hope we get much out of him until he gets healthy and thats not a sure thing to ever happen. 

Peoria

It was about a week ago that MD and I were praising Patrick Franceson and since then he has pretty much sucked. So blame us. However the Asian Sensation that is Yao Lin Wang picked up another win. Wang went 2 IP and allowed no runs, no hits and just a walk. He still has an ERA of 0. I would really like to see him start considering he did well in that role in Boise but maybe they just want to limit his IP for now. 20 yr old OF Oliver Zapata went 3-4 and currently sports an OPS of 1.992.