Tag: misael siverio

Misael Siverio Stats and Video

 

misael-siverio

Cuban News

  • The notable free agent news of the day is that the Cubs are unlikely to sign Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, per CSN’s Patrick Mooney. This is a good thing, I think, unless his price ends up dropping to the $10 million range. At that point, he might be a decent gamble.
  • The Cuban National Team is currently in the midst of a five-games series against a team of college players from the US. Lefty Misael Siverio took this opportunity to inconspicuously disappear into the ethnically-dense and culturally-rich city of Des Moines.

Siverio Scouting Report From Victor Mesa

Cuban National Team manager Victor Mesa told the USA today after the defection:

You may see the gentleman that defected working as a laborer. He came with us because he’s a left-hand thrower but he’s not that great of a pitcher.

That sharp intake of breath you just heard was the Red Sox’ front office gasping in admiration. That’s a grade 70 smear campaign right there. Agent Jaime Torres’s response seems to be along the lines of: “He’s left-handed, you idiots! Haven’t you ever heard of Jesse Orosco?” (Note: this is a loose translation.)

I would love to rebuke Mesa with the power of my spreadsheets, but I’m not sure he’s all that far off in his evaluation.

Video and Amateur Scouting Report

Siverio is twenty-four and was a starter for the Villa Clara team in la Serie Nacional that won the championship this year. He started twice in the final five-game set, which is available for online viewing. I have to admit that I find these games captivating, despite all the pointless noise from the stands. Cuban fans seem to have eschewed the vuvuzela craze in favor of actual trumpets, trombones, and something that sounds like a siren.

Misael’s main weapon seems to be a slow, sweeping curveball that he’s willing to throw in any count. His fastball sits at 86-87 miles per hour, and runs in on right-handed hitters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPzLtiROQ5A

Misael Siverio Stats

Tm Age G GS IP W L AB TBF H R ER ERA K BB BBI 2B 3B HR
2008 VC 19 22 16 51.7 5 2 62 26 4.53 48 28 5
2009 VC 20 29 4 66.0 6 2 50 12 1.64 64 31 4
2010 VC 21 30 1 67.3 5 3 272 300 82 36 35 4.68 79 22 5 9 1 7
2010* VC 21 7 0 8.7 0 2 40 46 15 10 10 10.38 7 4 0 1 0 2
2011 VC 22 18 17 101.0 9 7 373 429 86 40 35 3.12 94 47 4 16 2 5
2011* VC 22 3 2 10.3 1 2 35 44 7 6 5 4.36 4 5 1 1 0 1
2012 VC 23 20 13 80.0 5 5 312 359 93 37 33 3.71 55 38 4 18 2 3
2012* VC 23 2 0 5.3 1 0 24 24 8 2 2 3.38 3 0 0 2 0 1
2013-1 VC 24 10 10 62.7 5 5 227 247 55 17 13 1.87 42 13 2 7 1 3
2013-2 VC 24 10 10 55.7 4 2 209 232 55 12 12 1.94 39 21 3 8 1 1
2013* VC 24 2 2 10.0 0 0 36 40 11 4 4 3.60 4 1 0 2 0 1
Totals 153 75 518.7 41 30 524 187 3.24 439 210 33
Age IP K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9 K% BB% dt K/9 dt BB/9 dt HR/9 dt NERA
2008 19 51.7 8.4 4.9 10.8 0.9 8.1 5.1 1.4 4.56
2009 20 66.0 8.7 4.2 6.8 0.5 8.4 4.2 1 2.99
2010 21 67.3 10.6 2.9 11.0 0.9 26.3 7.3 10.4 3.6 1.3 5.39
2010* 21 8.7 7.3 4.2 15.6 2.1 15.2 8.7
2011 22 101.0 8.4 4.2 7.7 0.4 21.9 11.0 8.9 4.5 0.7 3.68
2011* 22 10.3 3.5 4.4 6.1 0.9 9.1 11.4
2012 23 80.0 6.2 4.3 10.5 0.3 15.3 10.6
2012* 23 5.3 5.1 0.0 13.5 1.7 12.5 0.0
2013-1 24 62.7 6.0 1.9 7.9 0.4 17.0 5.3
2013-2 24 55.7 6.3 3.4 8.9 0.2 16.8 9.1
2013* 24 10.0 3.6 0.9 9.9 0.9 10.0 2.5
518.67 7.6 3.6 9.1 0.6
*Playoffs
Notes: dt-prefixes indicate Clay Davenport’s translations. The 2013 season was split into a first half, in which everyone played, and a second in which 8 qualifying teams advanced.

The press has been trumpeting Siverio’s under-2 ERA in 2013, and this year does seem to have been a very good one for the pudgy left-hander, but I’m a little dubious as to the track record as a whole. After starting for most of the season as an 18-year old, Siverio was shifted to the bullpen for two years prior to a move back to the rotation at age 21. He also seems to have spent half the season in the ‘pen at age 23. When deciding whether to invest in a Cuban pitcher, “bounced in and out of the rotation” is not something you want to see on a resume. Let’s take a look at how he compares to some of the other defectors profiled so far.

Cuban Comps

Yrs Ages G GS IP TBF K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9 K% BB% ERA WHIP
Mig Alf G 2010-12 23-25 40 38 245 1021 6.2 2.3 8.8 0.6 16.5 6.2 3.49 1.23
Dalier 2010-13 24-27 62 59 396.7 1689 7.7 2.7 9.0 1.0 20.1 7.1 3.79 1.31
Odrisamer 2010-13 23-26 100 100 647.7 2785 6.8 3.7 8.5 0.5 17.5 9.6 3.38 1.35
Misael 2011-13 22-24 65 54 325 1216 6.7 3.5 8.7 0.4 17.5 9.1 2.88 1.35

I tried for at least three full seasons worth of recent data. For Siverio, I included his 2012, even though it includes 7 relief appearances mixed in with 13 starts. Siverio has an advantage in ERA, driven by his stellar results from 2013. Aside from that, his walk rate is higher than you would like, and his strikeout rate is not on the level of Dalier Hinojosa’s. His suppression of homeruns has been good, on the whole.

If you wanted to make the case for Siverio, it’s that he’s younger than the rest of the defectors, left-handed, and may have made some strides in 2013. Follow that path too frequently, and you may end up with more players in your AZL bullpen than you know what to do with. On the whole, I think that he and Odrisamer Despaigne are on a tier below Gonzalez and Hinojosa.

Previously profiled defectors are Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa, Odrisamer Despaigne, Dariel Alvarez and Aledmis Diaz, and Alexander Guerrero.

Dariel Alvarez Stats, Aledmis Diaz Stats, and Endless Cuban Comps

Aledmis-Diaz
Aledmis Diaz

Updates: If interested in more defector profiles and comparisons, here are Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa, Odrisamer Despaigne, Alexander Guerrero, and Misael Siverio.

In case you are looking for some info to browse through while waiting for Matt Garza to leave town.

I was initially planning to write up Misael Siverio, a Cuban lefty who disappeared into a cornfield in Des Moines Tuesday night, but a few position players have made the news recently, so I’ll run through them first.

Noticias de Cuba

Dariel Alvarez Stats

The Baltimore Sun is reporting that outfielder Dariel Alvarez has agreed to a deal with the Baltimore Orioles for $800k. Alvarez is 25 years old, 6’2″, 190 lbs, and defected in August of last year. Despite the fact that the Cubs aren’t signing him, I wanted to take a look at his numbers, given that his price was significantly less than some others (Puig, Soler, Cespedes, etc…) have received.

Team Age PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS R RBI SH SF HBP BB SO GIDP
2007 Cam 19 128 125 32 3 0 0 0 1 7 12 0 0 3 11
2008 Cam 20 117 108 29 3 4 1 1 0 16 15 3 0 6 11
2009 Cam 21 306 271 73 7 2 5 5 8 41 31 1 8 26 26
2010 Cam 22 325 299 82 13 1 11 5 10 43 41 4 1 8 13 27 13
2011 Cam 23 376 344 125 22 2 20 2 2 65 81 0 5 9 18 20 4
2012 Cam 24 319 283 77 10 0 8 2 2 31 36 1 3 6 26 18 13
Totals 1571 1430 418 58 9 45 15 23 203 216 92 113
Age PA AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K% dt AVG dt OBP dt SLG
2007 19 128 0.256 0.273 0.280 0.024 2 9 0.222 0.234 0.246
2008 20 117 0.269 0.299 0.398 0.130 5 9 0.225 0.244 0.333
2009 21 306 0.269 0.350 0.365 0.096 8 8 0.227 0.280 0.308
2010 22 325 0.274 0.321 0.435 0.161 4.0 8.3 0.234 0.266 0.367
2011 23 376 0.363 0.404 0.613 0.250 4.8 5.3 0.310 0.337 0.518
2012 24 319 0.272 0.343 0.392 0.120 8.2 5.6
Totals 1571 0.292 0.335 0.440 0.148 6 7

Not too shabby for $800k, right? The nice thing about looking at position players coming over from Cuba, though, is that there is a relatively extensive track record of Major League performance. With pitchers, it’s basically Aroldis Chapman, Jose Contreras, and the Hernandez brothers. With position players on the other hand, there are quite a few names we can look at in attempting to get a performance baseline.

Here are how some major leaguers compared to Alvarez in la Serie Nacional at similar ages. I tried for three years worth of data from each player, as close as I could get to their age 22-24 seasons, which were Alvarez’s three most recent.

Technical Note: I’m getting all of the data from pre-2010 seasons from Clay Davenport, who doesn’t bother to list things like plate appearances, sacrifices, and HBP. I wanted to include BB%, and K%, so I estimated PA in a half-assed manner. I won’t go into detail, but the bottom line is that the BB% and K% numbers I’m showing are likely a smidge higher than the reality.

Yrs Ages PA HR AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K%
Dariel Alvarez 2010-12 22-24 1020 39 0.307 0.347 0.488 0.181 5.6 6.4
Yoenis Cespedes 2008-10 22-24 1167 72 0.317 0.386 0.589 0.272 10 12
Henry Urrutia 2008-10 21-23 999 29 0.358 0.433 0.537 0.179 10 11
Leonys Martin 2008-10 20-22 1040 25 0.345 0.474 0.517 0.172 17 14
Kendrys Morales 2002-04 19-21 781 32 0.350 0.434 0.576 0.226 11 12
Dayan Viciedo 2006-08 17-19 925 32 0.296 0.390 0.479 0.184 11 13
Yasiel Puig 2009,’11 19,21 639 24 0.316 0.412 0.539 0.223 11 15

That helps to put the $800k in perspective. The flipside of all the mediocre pitching numbers that have shown up for prominent defectors is that the offensive numbers are really good. While Alvarez doesn’t strike out much, he falls well short of the numbers put up by some of the other defectors.

Aledmis Diaz Stats

Aledmis Diaz is a shortstop who also defected last summer. The Cubs have been connected. He is listed at 6′”1″, 185 pounds, and is said to have a strong arm. The media seems to have decided that his name is actually “Aledmys,” but the version with an “i” seems to show up in all the Cuban sources, so I’ll stick with that for the time being.

Diaz has been in the news recently for lying about his age. He claimed to be 23 to exempt himself from international signing restrictions, but MLB decided that he isn’t, and has barred him from signing until February. It’s not clear how old he actually is, but his birthday has been previously listed as August 1, 1990. If that’s true, then he should be free and clear to sign without restriction in February. If it’s actually sometime in 1991, as has been listed elsewhere, then there remains a possibility that he will have to wait, or take whatever offer a club will make in the confines of their budget restrictions. I’m assuming the August 1990 birthdate is correct.

Team Age PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS R RBI SH SF HBP BB SO GIDP
2008 VC 17 35 32 9 0 0 0 0 1 9 0 3 11
2009 VC 18 282 276 94 20 2 5 0 5 51 39 6 11
2010 VC 19 294 262 74 8 2 3 2 5 41 32 4 1 7 20 28 15
2010* VC 19 67 58 17 4 0 2 0 1 6 11 1 0 4 4 10 2
2011 VC 20 358 282 83 16 1 7 1 2 44 45 3 1 14 58 23 10
2011* VC 20 31 25 7 3 0 0 1 0 6 2 0 0 2 4 3 1
2012 VC 21 313 270 85 10 3 12 11 2 48 49 1 1 5 36 25 13
2012* VC 21 33 28 5 1 0 1 0 2 4 1 1 0 0 4 3 1
Totals 1413 1233 374 62 8 30 15 18 209 179 135 114
Age PA AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K% dt AVG dt OBP dt SLG
2008 17 35 0.281 0.313 0.281 0.000 9 31 0.242 0.242 0.242
2009 18 282 0.341 0.401 0.482 0.141 2 4 0.285 0.329 0.410
2010 19 294 0.282 0.348 0.363 0.080 6.8 9.5 0.243 0.289 0.309
2010* 19 67 0.293 0.379 0.466 0.172 6.0 14.9
2011 20 358 0.294 0.437 0.433 0.138 16.2 6.4 0.260 0.367 0.375
2011* 20 31 0.280 0.419 0.400 0.120 12.9 9.7
2012 21 313 0.315 0.404 0.507 0.193 11.5 8.0
2012* 21 33 0.179 0.281 0.321 0.143 12.1 9.1
Totals 0.303 0.372 0.440 0.136 10 8
*Playoffs

Overall, I think there is a lot to like here. Here’s a look out how his age 19-21 seasons compare to some other Cuban shortstops who have played in the US, with varying degrees of success.

Yrs Ages PA HR AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K%
Aledmis Diaz 2010-12 19-21 1096 25 0.293 0.395 0.432 0.139 11.5 8.4
Alexei Ramirez 2001-03 19-21 728 17 0.343 0.398 0.511 0.168 8 12
Yuni Betancourt 2002-04 19-21 958 19 0.291 0.333 0.442 0.151 6 9
Adeiny Hechavarria 2007-09 19-20 433 4 0.249 0.312 0.353 0.104 8 16
Yunel Escobar 2002-04 19-21 354 5 0.284 0.404 0.381 0.097 15 16

Diaz’s approach rates out as the best of the bunch. He struck out less than any of them and walked more than all but Escobar*. He showed less power than Ramirez did at that age, but put up a nearly identical OBP. Ramirez and Escobar have had pretty good careers, so the favorable comparison here speaks well of Diaz. If he can play good defense up the middle, the Cubs would be wise to make the effort, at least.

*I’m almost positive that these are Escobar’s stats, though Clay didn’t make the connection; the listing is “Yunier Escobar” in his database. The timeframe is right, though, as is the Cuban team (Industriales). In addition, here is a Cuban news report referring to Yunel as “Yunier” after his eye black incident last year. Even so, it’s a bit strange that he managed so few PA’s, even on a strong Industriales team. Maybe no one liked him there, either.

Odrisamer Despaigne Stats and a Comparison with Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Dalier Hinojosa

odrisamer-despaigne-2

Updates: If interested in more defector profiles and comparisons, here are Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa, Aledmis Diaz, Dariel Alvarez, Alexander Guerrero, and Misael Siverio.

I have previously profiled Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Dalier Hinojosa. This time it’s Odrisamer Despaigne, who defected two weeks ago by walking away from the national team at an airport in Paris. No word yet whether the Cubs have interest, as Despaigne’s defection is much more recent than the other two. He has been working out in front of teams in Barcelona.

Defector Updates

  • Both Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Dalier Hinojosa have been cleared to sign with Major League teams by the Treasury. Any day now we can expect an announcement on those two.
  • Hot off the presses, another Cuban pitcher has defected. This time in it is Misael Siverio, who left the team last night in Des Moines. Jesse Sanchez is doing his part in carrying the water for his agents, shaving a year off his age in his tweeted announcement. Or not. Who knows? His stats actually look pretty good at first glance. I’ll profile him next.
  • I haven’t seen any updates or stats on Leandro Linares, the 19-year old who would be subject to international signing restrictions.
  • When we last saw Alfredo Despaigne, Cuba’s mini Bo Jackson, he was mercilessly taking Dalier Hinojosa deep. Now it turns out that he is playing in the Mexican League on loan from Cuba, and he is crushing. He has hit five homers in 86 plate appearances en route to a .366/.384/.598 line. I’m guessing that someone in Cuba is confident enough that Despaigne won’t defect to loan him to Mexico, but they have obviously been wrong on that front before. Outside of perhaps Jose Abreu, no other Cuban’s defection would make as big a splash as the three-time MVP. Fingers crossed that he comes over after the Dodgers waste all their money on other schlubs and before the Yankees end their bid to get under the luxury tax.

Odrisamer Despaigne Profile

Despaigne isn’t as big as Gonzalez or Hinojosa, checking in at 6’0″, 200 lbs. He is 26 and has pitched for Industriales in la Serie Nacional since he was 19. Unfortunately, I haven’t found any detailed scouting reports on his stuff, though I’m sure that sort of thing will be publicized soon enough. Youtube isn’t much help, either, as it only turns up the following video:

I’m fascinated by this because I don’t know what’s going on. From what I gather, Marti is a Miami-based news organization whose primary focus is the goings-on in Cuba. They are profiling the latest rash of defectors in beisbol, the latest being Odrisamer, and they interview a sportswriter who has himself defected, Raul Arce. Presumably they are discussing the logistics of such a defection. So far, so good. But then there is a call to la Serie Nacional that has all the trappings of “gotcha” investigative journalism, but whose purpose in unclear. Are they gloating? Trying to demonstrate Cuban baseball’s dishonesty and/or incompetence? Is there a corrupt member of the organization facilitating these defections?

Odrisamer Despaigne Stats

Team Age G GS IP W L AB TBF H R ER ERA K BB BBI 2B 3B HR
2006 Ind 19 23 1 60.7 3 1 64 26 3.86 34 29 4
2007 Ind 20 28 0 65.0 5 2 70 20 2.77 37 22 4
2008 Ind 21 34 0 83.3 3 5 78 35 3.78 47 26 3
2009 Ind 22 28 9 100.7 6 6 113 54 4.83 79 47 8
2010 Ind 23 20 20 117.3 10 7 439 515 116 63 56 4.30 106 55 4 18 3 7
2010* Ind 23 6 6 37.3 3 1 140 165 37 12 9 2.17 27 19 0 3 1 1
2011 Ind 24 21 21 130.0 8 8 506 597 143 87 68 4.71 96 62 5 30 1 13
2012 Ind 25 24 24 169.3 13 8 602 699 131 56 49 2.60 128 66 2 16 1 6
2012* Ind 25 6 6 50.7 5 1 182 201 43 10 9 1.60 32 11 2 5 1 0
2013-1 Ind 26 12 12 83.7 5 2 308 339 76 29 24 2.58 55 25 5 8 2 5
2013-2 Ind 26 11 11 59.3 5 3 227 269 63 32 28 4.25 43 28 3 10 2 1
Totals 957.3 61 43 934 378 3.55 684 390 52

 

Age IP K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9 K% BB% dt K/9 dt BB/9 dt H/9 dt HR/9 dt NERA
2006 19 60.7 5.0 4.3 9.5 0.6 4.6 4.6 9.2 1.0 4.87
2007 20 65.0 5.1 3.0 9.7 0.6 5.4 3.7 11.1 1.3 3.96
2008 21 83.3 5.1 2.8 8.4 0.3 4.8 3.1 7.7 0.7 4.38
2009 22 100.7 7.1 4.2 10.1 0.7 6.8 4.2 9 1.0 4.82
2010 23 117.3 8.1 4.2 8.9 0.5 20.6 10.7 8.4 4.7 8.3 0.7 4.52
2010* 23 37.3 6.5 4.6 8.9 0.2 16.4 11.5
2011 24 130.0 6.6 4.3 9.9 0.9 16.1 10.4 7.0 4.5 8.8 1.0 5.45
2012 25 169.3 6.8 3.5 7.0 0.3 18.3 9.4
2012* 25 50.7 5.7 2.0 7.6 0.0 15.9 5.5
2013-1 26 83.7 5.9 2.7 8.2 0.5 16.2 7.4
2013-2 26 59.3 6.5 4.2 9.6 0.2 16.0 10.4
Totals 957.3 6.4 3.7 8.8 0.5
*Playoffs
** The 2013 season was split into two halves, with 8 teams advancing from the first round robin to play in the second half
Sources: beisbolencuba.com, claydavenport.com (any “dt” prefix indicates a Davenport translation)

Despaigne is a workhorse. Neither Gonzalez nor Hinojosa ever started more than 20 combined games in the regular and post season, whereas Odrisamer has done it every year since being shifted to the rotation in 2010. In 2012 he managed 30 starts and 220 innings between the regular season and playoffs, an impressive total in a league whose regular season is only 96 games long. In the 2012 playoffs, he averaged eight and a half innings in six starts, going 5-1. Clutch. Here is how he compares to Gonzalez and Hinojosa overall from 2010-2013:

G GS IP TBF K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9 K% BB% ERA WHIP
Mig Alf G 40 38 245 1021 6.2 2.3 8.8 0.6 16.5 6.2 3.49 1.23
Dalier 62 59 396.7 1689 7.7 2.7 9.0 1.0 20.1 7.1 3.79 1.31
Odris 100 100 647.7 2785 6.8 3.7 8.5 0.5 17.5 9.6 3.38 1.35

Overall, Odrisamer has a strange profile. His K-rate is slightly better than Gonzalez’s, but his control is easily the worst of the three. What he does seem to do well is prevent runs. He sports a lower hit rate against than either of the other two, and his home run rate is also very good. Who knows? Maybe he throws a knuckleball.

Overall, though, his numbers definitely don’t point to a pitcher who is a safe bet for a big investment. Of the three, I would probably bet on Dalier, despite the homers.