The Ryan Dempster Saga, Part 2

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Cubs might be getting close to a deal with the Dodgers for [Name Redacted].

David Kaplan says they're moving closer to a deal and a it may be a multi-team deal.

On CSN Chicago Kaplan talks a bit more in detail about it. 

After working the phones late last night and today, it appears that the Cubs are going to be very busy this weekend trying to close a handful of deals that could accelerate the rebuilding process exponentially. 

Team Theo and Co. are looking at a number of scenarios, with sources telling me this afternoon that a multi-team trade that would send Ryan Dempster to his preferred destination, the Los Angeles Dodgers while netting the Cubs a handful of prospects built around starting pitching is getting closer to happening.

Interesting.

Looking back at Ryan Dempster’s Cubs career

In August 2003 Ryan Dempster underwent Tommy John surgery while a member of the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds released him in November that year and the Cubs signed him as a free agent on January 21st, 2004. The Cubs were a contender at this time and while Dempster would not be ready to start the season, he could provide some help in the bullpen late in the season. On August 1st Dempster made his Cubs debut and threw .2 innings. He'd throw another 20 innings that season and ended the year with a sub 4 ERA, a 4.11 FIP and a strikeout rate near 7.9 per 9. ;

Dempster had always had trouble with his control and 2004 was no different. He walked more than 5.5 guys per 9. He returned to the Cubs for $2 million in 2005 and became the team's closer. He threw over 90 innings in what wasn't a very good season for the Cubs. He saved over 30 games, had a solid 3.13 ERA and 3.38 FIP. He was good for 1.9 fWAR and 2.1 rWAR. ;

2006 and 2007 didn't go as well for Dempster as he saw his ERA approach 5. He walked about 4.5 per 9 from 2005 through 2007 so things were a lot more difficult because of that. Dempster had always had a lot of potential, but he had poor control, which kept him from reaching that potential. ;

Following Dempster's impressive 2005 season the Cubs signed the reliever to a 3-year deal for more than $15 million. He'd end up earning $17 million over those years. Lou Piniella made what was seemingly a terrible decision in spring training 2008. He decided Ryan Dempster would be a starter. Dempster wouldn't let him down and he surprised damn near everybody. ;

He'd thrown over 100 innings only once since 2002 (115 innings in 2003). To help condition himself for the long season, Dempster ran up Camelback Mountain, which was kind of funny at the time. No way was this guy going to last 200+ innings. But he did. And he was one of the better starters in the league.

He posted a 2.96 ERA and a 3.41 FIP. His fWAR was 5.2 and his rWAR was 6.7. Re-signing Dempster became a necessity. Nobody thought the'd be as good as he was in 2008. He was a bit lucky and the Cubs didn't pay him to pitch that well either. Not even close. They signed to a 4-year deal for $52 million, which expires after this season ends. ;

Since 2008 Dempster has been very consistent. His xFIP in 2008 was 3.69. Since then it's been 3.76, 3.74, 3.70 and 3.74 this season. The run environment has changed so those aren't quite the same. His xFIP- (like ERA+, but less than 100 is above average) has been 85, 88, 94, 96 and 96 again this season. ;

Since 2008 only 16 pitchers have more fWAR than Dempster. Dempster came to the Cubs broken and put together an OK career in the bullpen before becoming a well above average starting pitcher. ;

He used his 10 & 5 rights to veto a trade to the Atlanta Braves and just beat up a Gatorade cooler in the dugout.

Soriano’s Contract: Disability Insurance

It makes sense for Major League Baseball teams, when handing out large multiyeared contracts that are “guaranteed,” to have an insurance policy to lessen the loss to the organization should the player suffer a career ending inury or be otherwise physically unable to play for the team. 

Given Alfonso Soriano’s contract, I thought I’d be interesting to take a look and see if the Cubs might be eligible to collect insurance on Soriano’s contract.  A certain individual, [named redacted], from [blog name redacted], has suggested continously that the Cubs might be able to use insurance on Soriano.  If they could, the story goes, it would greatly reduce the cost of releasing Soriano and save the franchise a lot of headaches in the years ahead.  Let’s take a look. 

First of all, It’s worthy to note that MLB contracts are guaranteed- the player is guaranteed to receive the full amount of money for the full number of years he is signed to, provided he doesn’t breach the contract.  Generally, these contracts are stacked in favor of the player, even when it comes to off-the-field injuries.  The exception is the hazardous activities clause written into MLB contracts, which allows the team to void the player’s contract should they engage in dangerous activities and become injured.  On the field injuries that end careers, are more common, however.  In this case, MLB teams have little choice but to pay out the contract to the player.  It is for this reason that MLB teams often purchase disability insurance for their players.

Major League Baseball does not have its own disability insurance program.  Instead, teams looking for insurance contract out as needed.  Perhaps a bit confusingly, contracts as a whole are not insured.  Policies are generally agreed upon for two or three years at a time, even if the length of the contract is longer.   This isn’t ideal for major league teams, particularly given the wealth of exceptionally long contracts signed in recent years, but it’s the maximum length insurance companies will agree to in order to protect their interests.  Who can blame them?  Contracts such as Soriano’s show why this is very smart thinking from the insurance companies.

Disability insurance generally is specified for players with career ending injruies.  However, if a player is out for two years due to Tommy John surgery or another injury that requires a long recovery time, teams can often collect temporary disability insurance.  Temporary disability insurance for MLB contracts is generally agreed upon with a 60 day, 90 day, or full season waiting period.  The player must be injured for the full length of the waiting period before the team can collect on the policy.  As with all insurance policies, the older or more injury prone the player, the more expensive the premium.  In 2002, the average premium for a MLB outfielder was $7.27 per $1000 insured.  Policies generally cover no more then 50-70% of the player’s contract, due to hesitance by the insurance companies to insure a higher percentage.

So, have the Cubs insured Alfonso Soriano’s policy? At what cost?  Unfortunately, these figures are not public, unlike salary or contract figures.  It would be very shortsighted of the Cubs not to have agreed on an insurance deal for Soriano, particularly given that much of his value was based on his speed, an ability that can decline rapidly.  However, given the incremental basis insurance policies are agreed upon, it’s likely the Cubs are on their second, or even possibly third policy on Soriano’s contract.  Given his injury problems and fragility, it’s likely that the current policy has a very high premium while actually covering very little of Soriano’s contract.  

None of this changes the fact that Soriano is not currently injured.  This means the Cubs are unfortunately on hold for the entire length, and amount of Soriano’s contract, regardless of his preformance, so long as he doesn’t breach his own contract.  Should Soriano suffer a temporary, or permanent career ending injury, it’s possible the Cubs may be able to collect on an insurance policy for Soriano’s contract.  however, they would have to prove that Soriano had really suffered a career ending injury, and not just a convienent phantom injury to opt out of his contract.  Even if they were able to do this, in all liklihood, the amount would probably be very small and rather insignificant, given the high amount of risk Soriano represents to potential insurers.
TL;DR: No 

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