Tag: National League

All is Lost

I’ve been diligently looking for work and have some interviews here and there, hopefully something sticks soon. And I guess the timing is good for when I start an eventual new job because the Cubs’ season is over:

The Cubs now sit at 79-76 on the season. The Diamondbacks and Mets currently hold the last 2 National League Wild-Card spots with the Braves still challenging behind them in the standings.

“It was a tough year, obviously,” Kyle Hendricks said after Saturday’s loss. “Just up-and-down. It just seemed like we’d catch steam and then couldn’t maintain it.

“Just a really up-and-down year. Not surprising we’re at about .500. Just how it went for us this year. When we played our good baseball, played fundamental, we could beat anybody. But we just couldn’t put it together for the full year this year.”

Marquee Sports Network

Technically there are a week of games remaining, including the finale against the Nationals that has yet to be played as I clickety-clack, but (soon-to-be former) Cubs World Series hero Kyle Hendricks is correct in that the lack of consistency and the absolutely putrid months of May and June (seriously, what was up with that) killed the season. It’s a disappointment on many levels for a team we all thought could make some noise at the beginning of the year. At least they weren’t eliminated in like July like certain other Chicago-area teams.

As the Cubs play out the string, it was interesting to see Craig Counsell and Jameson Taillon address the fact that they were so far behind the Milwaukee Brewers (seriously, who saw this gap coming?) and how they really needed to work to catch up. Taillon reiterated the need to generate a 90-win team at minimum. Whether we expected the Brewers to be this good, or whether they deserve to be this good, is immaterial, as the Cubs could have and should have done more to address the flaws that we were all witness to during this season. I think there are plenty of positives to take into the next season, including how they did make a late season surge again (a bit too little and too late, of course), but as Counsell implied, some difficult decisions will be made as Jed Hoyer enters his final guaranteed season as president of baseball operations.

I can say with some level of certainty that guys like Kyle Hendricks (sad face) and Drew Smyly (meh) won’t be back. Whether Cody Bellinger opts out or not is up in the air, but with Pete Crow-Armstrong maturing into the everyday center fielder, Bellinger’s value if he stayed on the Cubs may take a hit, so that is worth monitoring as the offseason draws closer. I’m going to take an educated guess that the Cubs also upgrade their bench, at the minimum, and find a way to get more consistent relievers although we all know that bullpen arms are volatile.

The important thing is to raise the projection in the offseason, as this team will max out at 86 wins if they run the table in the remaining time. That is probably highly unlikely as they are hard pressed to sweep a Phillies club that needs to compete for the top seed, and a Reds team with very little to lose and some bright spots of their own, but as many have lamented throughout 2024, if a few of the saves hadn’t been blown and if a few more hits had dropped, things would be really different. So the issue is not only the projection, but luck and preparation. Whoever joins the club, whether it is a promotion from the minors, a trade, or a free agent signing, needs to be onboarded effectively. Slumps need to be nipped faster. Struggles need to be addressed with more urgency. I don’t envy the people in charge who have to deal with it.

Ricketts was selling Cubs Convention tickets pretty recently, so as we wait for the regular season to end and watch another World Series without the Cubs, let’s hope they give us something to be excited about in what we hope to be the inflection point of this “retool” period. Baseball is better when the Cubs are in the playoffs, and while I am thankful that they played meaningful games almost into the final week of the season, there is a lot of work to do to get them back into the dance.

In Before Getting the Live Chicken

In between searching for new employment and whatever else is going on in real life right now, I thought I’d temper some expectations and doom with some math. Funny enough, the only mention of “math” in the OV archives is one of the old comics about Joe Mather of all people, but I’m too lazy to grab something math-y from Al Gore’s internet, so this can stay and be fun. Incidentally, once upon a time when the Cubs sucked, I watched Joe Mather walk off an obviously superior Cardinals team at Wrigley, so strange things do happen in baseball.

We are at the point where we need more strange things to happen in favor of the Cubs. The problem, of course, is the prolonged slump in May and June that put them in this position in the first place (kind of the opposite of what happened last year). Having one of the first major bullpen fails that actually led to a loss after a hot streak was annoying but not unexpected. The problem is that certain clubs above the Cubs in the standings aren’t losing at the same time. Arizona and San Diego are too far away. Milwaukee has the division pretty much locked up. At 71-67, the Cubs have 24 games remaining to make up either the 10 game deficit in the division (probably not going to happen) or the 3.5 games (more like 4.5 with having lost pretty much every tiebreaker) between them and Atlanta, not to mention having to outplay the Mets, so it’s doable, just very very difficult and improbable.

The month of September has plenty of winnable games, but also a few land mines. Theoretically the Cubs can take Paul Skenes to school and then win their series against the Pirates despite laying a stinker in the opener, but that will be a tough task. Then the Yankees with a recovered Anthony Rizzo come into town, and that is not an easy matchup even if said Yankees have been struggling. Then a West Coast road trip to visit the Dodgers (not easy) and Coors (chaos incarnate) before a hopefully easier homestand against the A’s and Nationals. The last road trip of the year is three in Philly, who have the lead in their division but haven’t clinched anything yet, before finishing off the season at home against the Reds, who by that point you hope will be done.

With those 24 games remaining, the Cubs could go .500 (which would suck) and get to 83 wins, which would match last year’s surprising (yet ultimately disappointing) record, only this season we expected slightly better, so let’s not do that. Given that nobody wants to lose, the Cubs probably need anywhere from 86 to 90 wins to get that last wild card, so that’s between 15-9 (.625) and 19-5 (.792). Given their blitz through some easier competition and some of the matchups coming up, those are certainly still possible, as long as they don’t get fully embarrassed against the good teams and do what they need to against the bottom dwellers. While I would refrain from making any bets, I would also not completely dismiss this slim but still very real possibility. And even for those who gave up in June, at least you’re paying attention again, eh?

The Ever-Diminishing Odds

It’s a Cubs off day, so that’s about time to check in on our favorite squadron’s slim chances of making a difference this season…

  • Currently, the Cubs stand at 61-64, in third place in the NL Central, 11.5 games back of Milwaukee for the division (kiss that goodbye), and 5.5 games back of Atlanta for that final wild card spot.
  • To get that wild card, the Cubs will have to leapfrog the Cardinals, the Giants, the Mets, and the aforementioned Atlanta squadron.
  • Fangraphs odds give the Cubs virtually no chance (0.4%) of winning the division, no chance whatsoever of clinching a first round bye (dying laughing), and only a 3.1% overall chance of making the postseason by any means (cue Dumb and Dumber gif).

Given all this, I guess we continue to be thankful that most of the National League still blows and the Cubs haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet, unlike certain neighbors to the south. The road to the end of the season gets decidedly easier, though that won’t mean much if the Cubs can’t muster up a run, let alone many runs, in the games that remain. Here’s the schedule going forward for those curious…

  • Off day (that’s today!)
  • 3x Tigers at home
  • 3x @ Marlins
  • 3x @ Pirates (maybe they’ll miss Skenes or he’ll have been shut down because they’re cheap)
  • Off day
  • 3x @ Nats
  • 3x Pirates at home
  • Off day
  • 3x Yankees at home
  • 3x @ Dodgers (eww travel)
  • Off days
  • 3x @ Rockies (gross, Coors)
  • 3x A’s at home
  • 4x Nats at home
  • 3x @ Phillies (hope they clinched a bye or tops in the league by then so they can coast)
  • Off day
  • 3x Reds at home to close the season

Napkin math says they need at least 85 wins to even have a chance, which is two more than they got all last year. With 37 games remaining, that’s a 24-13 record. They should probably aim to do better than this, with some red-hot prospects in Iowa that might yet get the call in September, but as berselius says, play better and things might happen.

Off Day Items

The Cubs have actually won a couple series in a row, and if we conveniently ignore the cesspool of suck that was most of May through July, they’ve actually been playing much better baseball and reflecting what we thought they could be in spring training. The problem, of course, is all the losses they’ve already banked, but them’s the breaks and that’s baseball and all that jazz.

Looking at the standings, the Cubs enter their off day at 57-60, with 45 games remaining. They are chasing the Brewers and pretty much the entire division, down 8.5 games in the division before everyone else plays tonight, and 5.5 games behind the final wild card spot with at least four teams to chase in front of them. 45 games is still a lot, and if they want to guarantee a postseason berth given recent results, they’ll have to get something like 84 to 88 wins, which means potentially a 30-15 record is what they should be shooting for the rest of the season. That is obviously a better pace than what they’ve shown thus far, but stranger things have happened.

Playoff odds-wise, the Cubs currently have a 6.0% chance of making the postseason in any form, which is better than zero. They also have played pretty well against the American League, and August is full of interleague games, with some scuffling National League teams towards the end of the month. If ever they were to make a run, that would be this month, but with the trade deadline having passed, any help they can ask for will have to come from within. Let’s not take them for granted since they just won a game, but at least the Cubs get the White Sox for a weird two-game set and another day off on Sunday (?!) before truly going on the road again.

Dreamcast 90: This is Fine

RC & AC have passionate discussions about those wacky infield fly rules with interference baked in, along with some Cubs stuff you probably already are steamed about regarding the poor performances and what lies ahead. RC is moving back to Chicago soon but there might be one more episode on the off day right before the big road trip back east.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast
Obstructed View Podcast
Dreamcast 90: This is Fine
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Moving On From Disappointment

There’s no sugarcoating it, this has been a very horrible stretch for the Cubs and they probably need to have a team meeting or some kind of surprise call-up or trade or signing to spark…something. I’ve generally mellowed out after the Cubs did the thing back then that some people forgot, but it’s a lot more fun to follow a team that is winning, and at the least, even if they don’t win, at least try to play well. The issue is that they’re not winning AND they’re not playing well. That is hopefully something the brain trust figures out.

A full roster turnover isn’t happening in season due to many factors, so we have to start with the current guys on the active roster doing what we know they’re capable of. Having a team-wide systemic slump is incredible and reminiscent of many of our complaints this year and for many past Cubs squadrons. Having the bats wake up more consistently will go a long way.

Until they wake up, the Cubs need to play defense and have their bullpen hold the line. The catchers might not hit, but they have to frame pitches better and help hold baserunners. Guys in the field, whether former Gold Glove winners or guys who are just there out of some roster necessity, need to convert outs and get their pitchers out of innings. I love what the rotation has been doing recently, but wasting all those starts late is extremely irritating and I’m sure it can’t be fun for the team either. I do wonder how much of this is coaching, but I do think because we were all generally happy with the roster construction (like we had much of a choice, but it wasn’t supposed to suck), there’s only so much the manager and staff can do. But it wouldn’t hurt to brainstorm a bit.

We are entering a stretch of division matchups and hopefully weaker pitching that will help the Cubs find their offensive stroke again, though you can allow for some poor luck with batted balls lately too. With over 100 games remaining, there is time to let things improve internally, but hopefully there are plans in the works to really shake things up, whether it’s to motivate the troops or to change personnel. I am hopeful for a turnaround because the talent should be there, and I do think the front office agrees and will add regardless of their record at the deadline. But it’s up to those already here to make that decision easier.

Dreamcast 89: Therapy Session

The jabronis get together after a fairly frustrating and not-fun stretch of Cubs futility to talk ourselves off the ledge as there is plenty of season left and the Cubs are still miraculously maintaining a winning record. We admire Shota Imanaga from afar, talk about the M-guys, and consider the options moving forward.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast
Obstructed View Podcast
Dreamcast 89: Therapy Session
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Dreamcast 85: Unchecked Optimism

We’re mere hours from Opening Day if you consider anything less than 48 “mere,” so it’s time to do our season preview episode!

In this edition:

  • The great Shohei Ohtani gambling caper
  • Cubs roster, rotation, bullpen, lineup, and outlook
  • MLB predictions including awards and postseason

We’ll probably talk about the MLBPA snafus later on after we get a few games that actually count under our belt.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast
Obstructed View Podcast
Dreamcast 85: Unchecked Optimism
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Cubs Spring Training Pre/Postmortem

As of this writing, today marks the final official Cactus League game for the Cubs. They’ll do a two-game exhibition against the Cardinals, who are traveling west to face the Dodgers amidst all their drama, before the Cubs themselves head a tad east to deal with the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers.

Opening Day is just a few days away, and it might be a good time to quickly survey what we’ve observed so far in spring training.

Good Fortune

The Cubs may not always score, but they’ve amassed a winning Cactus League record (not that they fly flags for those things really), and more importantly, have avoided devastating injuries to most of the players who will hopefully help the team to a long awaited postseason berth. The chief injuries to note are with AC’s idol Nick Madrigal, who is currently penciled in to start today’s finale at 3B; Ian Happ, who played after a couple weeks off and now they’re slow playing him in case his hamstring isn’t all the way back yet; Patrick Wisdom, who has a back ailment that I can’t even make fun of because backs are the devil; and Jameson Taillon, who may only miss one or two starts depending on how things go.

I think we can be extremely thankful that Justin Steele still seems ready to start on Opening Day despite getting zapped on his knee by a comebacker. The only major injury is to Caleb Kilian, who had the shoulder muscle issue and will be out until at least mid-season which means another pitcher can snag his roster spot once the Cubs 60-day him. Overall, not terrible all things considered, knock on all the wood.

Good Performances

In their time on the field and working with coaches on the back fields, there have been many glowing reports of Cubs players looking to fly with the team to Texas. Of note is Christopher Morel, who has shown plenty of positives in his third base defense with the requisite learning curve errors thrown in. Seiya Suzuki has been blistering the ball all spring, his countryman Shota Imanaga has shown some nasty offerings in between managing his fastball to ensure it doesn’t end up 500 feet away, and various prospects including Matt Shaw and Ben Brown have given us something to look forward to come midseason or September. I’d say that there is no one likely to make the Opening Day roster that I would vehemently object to at this point.

Good Flexibility

There is built in versatility throughout the lineup, sure, but based on the fact that the Cubs are at the first luxury tax threshold (and effectively are over anyway once they factor in incentives and stuff), it seems like we are going to experience some ride-and-die in the first half and then hopefully reinforcements come the trade deadline whether from within or without. Jordan Montgomery might not be an option much longer since the news wire suggests he’s close to signing, but trades in midseason plus some payroll flexibility prior to the next luxury tax penalties kicking in will be possible.

Good Luck

If Craig Counsell brings some managerial smarts and magic, the Cubs can hopefully swing a few extra close games. The preseason projections show a jumble up top, and even the Pirates could make some noise if their prospects take a step forward, so none of this is a foregone conclusion. But perhaps the ball will bounce our way more often than not, and the Cubs can play as chaos personified.

Dreamcast 74: Fumes

Kind of sucky that we have actual jobs and lives and responsibilities that make it so our recording sessions often coincide with Cubs games, and also sucky that sometimes, the Cubs don’t win those games. But methinks most of what we said during this latest poop of a loss is still applicable as the Cubs remain in contention in the final week of the season, which is an objective fact even if their path is a bit more difficult due to various self-inflicted wounds. Herein:

  • Stroman’s return and pitcher usage with injuries and fatigue racking up
  • Using the best possible matchups
  • Play the rookies, maybe?
  • Award nominees like we actually had a vote

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast
Obstructed View Podcast
Dreamcast 74: Fumes
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