Tag: National League

Two Weeks

I knew that I wrote something like this a while back, but I didn’t actually know it was from June, before the Cubs made enough of a run to actually get into buy mode. Since then, the Cubs have went on quite the run to get into the postseason picture, but are now unfortunately on the outside looking in, albeit not exactly 20 games back like certain other teams.

If you are consistent and emotionless and haven’t moved your goalposts, the Cubs have done basically what they were projected to do thus far, albeit a bit ass backwards given they were comfortably holding a wild card spot just a week ago. If, however, you have bought into the hype and the glorious potential of the team that did hold that wild card spot, then it is a major disappointment that they are at this point. As yet another counterpoint, the fact that they’re even this close for us to be frustrated like this is a blessing, and the good news is that there are two weeks left to do something about their situation if they don’t want to go home after October 1.

There is now virtually no shot for the Cubs to win the division, which may be good news for that final series in Milwaukee. Given that they are merely half a game back of Arizona (who obviously owns the tiebreaker after mopping the floor with the Cubs over the past two weeks), but tied with Miami (who owns the tiebreaker because the Cubs sucked against them earlier this season) and just barely up on the Reds (who owns the tiebreaker because the Cubs bullpen and offense both crapped out at the worst time). There are 12 games remaining for the Cubs, and a similar number for all those other teams, including the Giants (who the Cubs do have the tiebreaker over) who technically still have a chance.

In the immediate series, the Diamondbacks have to play those Giants, so some solid work from SF would be nice. The Reds play the Twins who are trying to clinch their division, and the Phillies are playing Atlanta, who is just three games up on Baltimore for home field through the World Series should they make it that far. They’re also 4.5 games up on the Dodgers for best record in the National League, with LA about to play in Detroit, so a beatdown of the Phillies might be in order after they failed to similarly beat down on Miami this past weekend.

As for the Cubs, we know the deal. They have three-game sets against the Pirates and the Rockies at home this week, and the following week must travel to Atlanta and Milwaukee to close out the season. 12-0 is extremely unlikely, and at this point the Cubs only have a 45.9% chance of earning a playoff spot, which is better than zero at least. We’ve gotten to the point where to get to the mythical 87 win mark that all but guarantees a wild card spot, the Cubs need to go 9-3. This requires essentially winning every series, and some help from the other teams. It’s doable, but the Cubs have made this bed for themselves where they are no longer fully in charge of their own fate.

In the coming two weeks, hopefully some arms can step up and eat innings, the bats actually wake up, and if by some miracle David Ross elects to play someone like Alexander Canario, he runs into a baseball or two because good lord do the Cubs need to find ways to score. The rules of baseball dictate that you must score at least one run to win a baseball match, and preferably more runs than the other team, so it’s just a matter of this team doing what we have seen them be capable of doing many times this season.

Strap in…or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

Fun With Cubs

The Cubs won another game, another series, are 11 games over .500, and have the tiebreaker over the Giants, having not lost ground in any race. Have some Morel bomb shots.

The Next Phase

Other than being the title of a pretty cool Star Trek episode, this coming week marks the next phase in the Cubs race towards extra baseball in October. As it stands, the Cubs stand 3.5 games back of NL Central leader Milwaukee, so they didn’t lose too much ground after an unfortunate (but ultimately acceptable) split in Cincinnati. They are also 2.5 games back of Philly for the top wild card spot and 3 games up on the final spot, so there is a cushion to work with should they falter this week. However, said teams behind the Cubs have all had their issues, which is why that cushion remains despite the hiccups with the bullpen and offense and possibly David Ross being a conundrum.

Let’s take a look at the week’s slate:

Cubs –> at home vs SF (3) & AZ (4); I’m hoping for 4-3 or better, basically they should avoid losing either series.

Reds –> vs Mariners (3) & STL (3); Mariners may be helpful as they are on a tear, but the Cardinals have lost some devil magic so who knows with them. Reds have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cubs so it would be best for the Reds to crash this week.

Diamondbacks –> they will host the Rockies (3) before heading to Chicago and I’m pretty sure the Rockies will be absolutely useless in that series, but strange things are afoot this time of year and the various Rockies playing for their next shot might not mind being spoilers.

Philly –> at Padres (3) & vs Marlins (3); the Padres just won a crucial series (for the Giants anyway) against SF before the Wrigley series so they might yet play spoiler some more, while the Marlins are suddenly one of the contenders tied for that final wild card spot so they should be suitably motivated to work over the Phillies.

Marlins –> 3 vs LA before their series in Philly, so maybe the Dodgers work them over since LA is still mathematically in the hunt for the top seed instead of their current second seed, either way the Dodgers are most likely earning a bye.

Giants –> after Wrigley, they’ll host the Rockies for 3 and as stated above, the Rockies are likely to be useless so it behooves the Cubs to win their series as they did earlier this season.

Brewers –> @ PIT (3) & @ Yankees (3); I expect the Pirates to be of no help and the Yankees did just sweep the Astros for the first time in a decade, but they’ve been trash for a while and the Brewers did channel the dark dimension for their most recent winning run before they ran into the Cubs, so if they continue to run the table the division may be slipping away, though if the Cubs hold serve they’ll keep that series at the end of the season very intriguing.

You wanted meaningful baseball in September, you got it.

The Critical Stretch

Well well, folks, another set of series that were not lost! At 69-61 (nice), I believe this is the first time all season the Cubs have been eight games over the mythical .500 mark. I’m looking at the breakdown and it would seem that other than that abysmal month of May, which somewhat coincidentally was when Cody Bellinger went on the injured list halfway through, the Cubs have been .500 or above in every calendar month, including 16-8 this August before they end the month against the Brewers at home. If not for the Brewers own win streak (and the fact that their opponents in that stretch have been absolutely useless), the Cubs might have clawed back some in the division, but we can talk about that soon.

The Schedule

As stated, the Cubs will finish August with three against the Brewers at Wrigley Field before a much needed off day, after which we will see the following through October 1:

  • 4 at Reds, including a doubleheader on day one (this ends their season series)
  • 3 vs Giants & 4 vs Diamondbacks at home
  • 3 @ Rockies and 3 @ Diamondbacks with off days after each series (but those are for travel)
  • 3 vs Pirates (ends season series) & 3 vs Rockies at home
  • 3 @ ATL and 3 @ Brewers to end the season (the division is potentially still in play at this point)

These are the 32 games that remain to solidify the Cubs’ position (or at least clinch that last playoff spot). The Rays snagged the final AL Wild Card spot with 86 wins while the Phillies did the same with 87 wins last season, so I think we want the Cubs to get to at least 86. This requires a record of 17-15 which is perfectly doable, but I tend to think they’ll do better than that.

The Cubs need to win the Reds series (3-1) to ensure they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. It would be best if they also win the series against the Giants as they did earlier this year, and also against the Diamondbacks, but those are likely going to be the tossup games. The nine games against the Rockies and Pirates should give them some cushion but as you saw with the “easy” schedule this past stretch, sweeps aren’t guaranteed even against bad teams. As suggested in the last Dreamcast, Atlanta might decide to rest some folks since they’re up big in the division and that would also depend on if they have a cushion against the Dodgers for the best league record, so maybe the Cubs catch a break. Regardless, because LA and ATL are so far above the rest, the Cubs will have to play in the wild card round pretty much no matter what, and the only question remaining is whether they’ll get to bat first or last in those games. Having to barely be above .500 the rest of the way is kind of nice, but just win and you’re in.

The Postseason Picture

The Reds had just lost their series to the Diamondbacks, and as of the end of the Giants game which they just won, Cincinnati and San Francisco are on the outside looking in. Miami is the next closest competitor, while the useless Padres are falling further behind.

In order, the wild cards are:

  • Philly (3 games up on the Cubs
  • Cubs
  • Arizona (half game back)

Then we have CIN & SF 1.5 games back of Arizona, and Miami three back with a large gap before you get down to the Padres who should be ashamed of themselves. This gives the Cubs some cushion, and as you saw on the schedule above, the Cubs will play each of Milwaukee, Arizona, and Cincinnati multiple times to get closer to the division and/or create separation in that wild card race. As of now, the Cubs sit four games back of the Brewers in the division and could end their series anywhere between a game back and seven games back. My hope is that they win at least one to keep the division hopes alive until that end-of-season series and to not allow the teams below them to catch up, but it might be rough with the Brewers big three pitchers coming to Wrigley, although they have been known to give up some runs.

If you were wondering about the American League, the division leaders are Baltimore, Seattle, and Minnesota. The Twins are mainly benefitting from the fact that everyone else in their division blows. Seattle has been on a tear and has leapfrogged the collapsing Texas Rangers to take over the division. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has the top wild card spot and could still overtake Baltimore, and Texas and Houston are in a virtual tie for the final two spots with Toronto and Boston being the only ones with a realistic shot to steal those spots.

September

I was way wrong about Jordan Wicks waiting until September and I’m thinking he’s up to stay for a bit since he was pretty good, and Drew Smyly has shown he’s trash as a starter, and Marcus Stroman is still broken. There are at this time two open spots on the 40-man roster, and at least one spot that could be cleared without batting an eye depending on what you think of Patrick Wisdom. The hope is that they can bring up a decent reliever (i.e., Luke Little, who has been fire and is apparently Rule 5 eligible soon anyway) or a bat (Pete Crow-Armstrong is probably easy money here). Coincidentally, the Reds series starts on September 1, so we’ll find out together. Again, Cubs just need to keep winning and they’re in.

Just Play Better

Seems the Cubs are sort of taking berselius’ advice. Despite some offensive hiccups lately to go with injuries to the pitching staff, the Cubs made out with a 3-2 home stand that probably should have been 5-0, but is better than the alternative where they completely collapse.

The Cubs currently sit three games out of first because the Texas Rangers were completely useless all weekend. The better news is that they are also a game ahead of the Reds in second place, hold the final wild card spot outright, and are within spitting distance of both the Giants and the Phillies for a higher seed.

The Cubs also have two additional games to play compared to their closest division rivals, one more than either San Francisco or Philly, and are ahead two games in the loss column for the closest wild card contenders behind them.

In this next week before the Cubs host the Brewers at Wrigley for Battle to the Death III, the schedule is allegedly easy since they face struggling Detroit (3) and Pittsburgh (4). It is highly unlikely the Cubs run the table against the Pirates in all 13 games, and since these are all MLB teams and baseball can be stupid, you can’t really bank on a 7-0 week. While 7-0 would be nice, I think something closer to 5-2 is probably more reasonable to expect, and anything less than that has to be considered disappointing or devastating depending on your perspective. Kind of glad the Brewers still haven’t run away with the division, but we’re now at 39 games remaining and time is running out, so wins are about as critical as they’re going to get.

Odds-wise, the Cubs playoff probability stands at 55% and they still have non-zero shots at winning the division and even scoring a bye. We can take a look at what comes next for the other teams this week:

  • Philly – SF (3) & STL (3)
  • SF – Philly (3) & ATL (3)
  • MIL – Twins (2) & SD (3)
  • AZ – Rangers (2) & CIN (4)
  • CIN – Angels (3) & AZ (4)
  • MIA – SD (3) & Nats (3)

I do not think I’m alone when I hope for mutually assured destruction from all those teams playing each other while the Cubs hopefully reignite their offense against some relatively soft competition. The Cubs should definitely take advantage, but honestly, I can’t tell them what to do.

The Season Does Not End Today

The Cubs enter this week having won a hard-fought series against the literal best team in baseball. They also did, once upon a time, win another series against the current best team in the American League as well. They also lost a bunch of winnable series but at this point, if you look at the breakdown, the only bad month was May when we thought the sky was falling. Every other month (including this one so far), the Cubs have been at or above .500, so that’s encouraging. You kind of wish they didn’t take that long to onboard Jameson Taillon and Michael Fulmer, or that Drew Smyly hadn’t turned back into a pumpkin, or that Marcus Stroman didn’t try to pitch through his nagging hip thing, but what’s done is done.

As of today:

Via MLB dot com

By math, the Cubs winning percentage (which is a decimal but whatever) is 0.517857 while the Reds are at 0.51754, so that’s why they’re above Cincinnati. Note that if the season ended today, the Cubs and Reds would probably be in a play-in game to fight for that final wild card spot, but for now the Cubs have two extra games to play and are one ahead in that critical loss column. They also aren’t that far away from the division lead, with 50 games to play. Here are the odds:

Via FanGraphs

It’s amazing what a few good series will do, and the Cubs have been on a tear, per this Tweet or Xeet or whatever they’re calling it, and sorry if it disappears whenever Elon and Zuckerberg finally kill each other in their alleged cage match:

Since the Cubs are not going to win 50 straight games (although that would be fun), I’m hoping for three of every five going forward, which seems very doable given this schedule (with problem teams in bold):

August

3 @ Mets
3 @ TOR
2 v White Sox
3 v KC
3 @ DET
4 @ PIT
3 v MIL

September

4 @ CIN
3 v SF
4 v AZ
3 @ COL
3 @ AZ
3 v PIT
3 v COL
3 @ ATL
3 @ MIL (ends October 1)

While I don’t think the Cubs are going to run the table against Pittsburgh, that would be kind of fun and hilarious. August looks to be a much easier month, and the downward spiral for some of the Cubs’ opponents may be a good thing:

Putting aside the Nightengale curse, and the fact that trades haven’t helped the Diamondbacks, Reds, or Giants much, September might start easier before the Cubs head into trouble territory again. In my mind, the remaining 50 games in the schedule are fairly balanced in terms of “should be easier” and “might be tough” games. Winning two of every three games gets the team to 90 wins, while three of five gets them to 88 wins, both of which might be enough to secure the wild card and/or even the division if the Cubs triumph in their final head-to-heads against the Brewers and Reds.

Lots can happen between now and October, but it is fun to know that as of today, the Cubs are in, and sometimes, all you have to do is get in.

Dreamcast 66: All-Star Edition

After the Draft, RC, Berselius, & BVS hang out to talk about the Cubs strategy, the All-Star festivities and what we liked versus what they need to change, and the usual stuff about whether this team is good enough to avoid a sell-off and make a pleasantly surprising postseason run.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast
Obstructed View Podcast
Dreamcast 66: All-Star Edition
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Dreamcast 64: Stay the Course

Here’s the latest episode where we talk about a bunch of random stuff:

  • The Cubs’ recent hot streak
  • Performances of various players including Seiya Suzuki and Mike Tauchman
  • The bullpen maybe finally getting it together
  • New rules stuff
  • Respect to Joey Votto and the Reds
  • Cubs potential All-Stars

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast
Obstructed View Podcast
Dreamcast 64: Stay the Course
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The Division is a Pipe Dream

Projections are just projections, and as they say, it’s in the hands of the players to play well and buck the narrative. Although it hasn’t been officially published yet, as we all surmised, the Cardinals are likely to repeat as NL Central division champs again:

Fuck.

FanGraphs already has the projections for the other four teams in the division, including the Cubs. The Cardinals entry will probably be live in the next day or so, but for now we can just add up all the crude WAR and put these teams in their projected order in the Central.

  1. St. Louis Cardinals (48.6)
  2. Milwaukee Brewers (44.4)
  3. Chicago Cubs (35.4)
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates (27.4)
  5. Cincinnati Reds (26.3)

Keep in mind that some of the more recent signings hadn’t been made yet for the other four teams before the Cardinals preview tweet. For example, the Reds just released Mike Moustakas while the Pirates reportedly brought back Andrew McCutchen and the Cubs are supposed to add Trey Mancini. Also keeping in mind that some of the players on the Cubs are either unproven per the ZiPS algorithm (so they’re understandable a bit more conservative on the projection) or are due for a step forward (we hope). But seeing that gap between the Cubs and the top two is somewhat discouraging.

This is about what we expected, though, and while the Cubs should be given plenty of credit for spending and winning the sneaky prize or whatever, it is difficult to stop wondering “what if” they had gotten some of the big names before settling on the players they did. I think there is a plan in place and I sincerely hope they’re right in using defense as their divisional market inefficiency. We’ll get a preview in about a month in snippets of spring training action, and we’ll see it for real come Opening Day.