In between searching for new employment and whatever else is going on in real life right now, I thought I’d temper some expectations and doom with some math. Funny enough, the only mention of “math” in the OV archives is one of the old comics about Joe Mather of all people, but I’m too lazy to grab something math-y from Al Gore’s internet, so this can stay and be fun. Incidentally, once upon a time when the Cubs sucked, I watched Joe Mather walk off an obviously superior Cardinals team at Wrigley, so strange things do happen in baseball.
We are at the point where we need more strange things to happen in favor of the Cubs. The problem, of course, is the prolonged slump in May and June that put them in this position in the first place (kind of the opposite of what happened last year). Having one of the first major bullpen fails that actually led to a loss after a hot streak was annoying but not unexpected. The problem is that certain clubs above the Cubs in the standings aren’t losing at the same time. Arizona and San Diego are too far away. Milwaukee has the division pretty much locked up. At 71-67, the Cubs have 24 games remaining to make up either the 10 game deficit in the division (probably not going to happen) or the 3.5 games (more like 4.5 with having lost pretty much every tiebreaker) between them and Atlanta, not to mention having to outplay the Mets, so it’s doable, just very very difficult and improbable.
The month of September has plenty of winnable games, but also a few land mines. Theoretically the Cubs can take Paul Skenes to school and then win their series against the Pirates despite laying a stinker in the opener, but that will be a tough task. Then the Yankees with a recovered Anthony Rizzo come into town, and that is not an easy matchup even if said Yankees have been struggling. Then a West Coast road trip to visit the Dodgers (not easy) and Coors (chaos incarnate) before a hopefully easier homestand against the A’s and Nationals. The last road trip of the year is three in Philly, who have the lead in their division but haven’t clinched anything yet, before finishing off the season at home against the Reds, who by that point you hope will be done.
With those 24 games remaining, the Cubs could go .500 (which would suck) and get to 83 wins, which would match last year’s surprising (yet ultimately disappointing) record, only this season we expected slightly better, so let’s not do that. Given that nobody wants to lose, the Cubs probably need anywhere from 86 to 90 wins to get that last wild card, so that’s between 15-9 (.625) and 19-5 (.792). Given their blitz through some easier competition and some of the matchups coming up, those are certainly still possible, as long as they don’t get fully embarrassed against the good teams and do what they need to against the bottom dwellers. While I would refrain from making any bets, I would also not completely dismiss this slim but still very real possibility. And even for those who gave up in June, at least you’re paying attention again, eh?
