RC, AC, SVB & berselius hang out as the Cubs were crapping the bed against the Tigers (but they did win the finale and the series) to ponder the state of the Cubs. Topics include:
The pitching situation, what with Drew Smyly sucking and Marcus Stroman with a weird injury;
Whether we would prefer a switch-up in the lineup construction;
Personnel decisions as we head closer to September call-ups;
A bit about the weird timing of the White Sox news if you missed it;
…and some stuff about broadcasters and streaming availability
Apologies for the lazy edit, ran out of time and have to do actual work here and there for a real job that pays money.
You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.
Seems the Cubs are sort of taking berselius’ advice. Despite some offensive hiccups lately to go with injuries to the pitching staff, the Cubs made out with a 3-2 home stand that probably should have been 5-0, but is better than the alternative where they completely collapse.
The Cubs currently sit three games out of first because the Texas Rangers were completely useless all weekend. The better news is that they are also a game ahead of the Reds in second place, hold the final wild card spot outright, and are within spitting distance of both the Giants and the Phillies for a higher seed.
The Cubs also have two additional games to play compared to their closest division rivals, one more than either San Francisco or Philly, and are ahead two games in the loss column for the closest wild card contenders behind them.
In this next week before the Cubs host the Brewers at Wrigley for Battle to the Death III, the schedule is allegedly easy since they face struggling Detroit (3) and Pittsburgh (4). It is highly unlikely the Cubs run the table against the Pirates in all 13 games, and since these are all MLB teams and baseball can be stupid, you can’t really bank on a 7-0 week. While 7-0 would be nice, I think something closer to 5-2 is probably more reasonable to expect, and anything less than that has to be considered disappointing or devastating depending on your perspective. Kind of glad the Brewers still haven’t run away with the division, but we’re now at 39 games remaining and time is running out, so wins are about as critical as they’re going to get.
Odds-wise, the Cubs playoff probability stands at 55% and they still have non-zero shots at winning the division and even scoring a bye. We can take a look at what comes next for the other teams this week:
Philly – SF (3) & STL (3)
SF – Philly (3) & ATL (3)
MIL – Twins (2) & SD (3)
AZ – Rangers (2) & CIN (4)
CIN – Angels (3) & AZ (4)
MIA – SD (3) & Nats (3)
I do not think I’m alone when I hope for mutually assured destruction from all those teams playing each other while the Cubs hopefully reignite their offense against some relatively soft competition. The Cubs should definitely take advantage, but honestly, I can’t tell them what to do.
As the Cubs continue to chip away at their deficits in both the division and wild card races, RC, SVB, and Berselius hang out to consider how to bridge the rotation until Stroman gets back (and hopefully doesn’t suck), Drew Smyly going to the bullpen, trying to get Seiya Suzuki right, and extending Cody Bellinger. Plus there’s some extended talk about some diaper commercial.
You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.
The Cubs enter this week having won a hard-fought series against the literal best team in baseball. They also did, once upon a time, win another series against the current best team in the American League as well. They also lost a bunch of winnable series but at this point, if you look at the breakdown, the only bad month was May when we thought the sky was falling. Every other month (including this one so far), the Cubs have been at or above .500, so that’s encouraging. You kind of wish they didn’t take that long to onboard Jameson Taillon and Michael Fulmer, or that Drew Smyly hadn’t turned back into a pumpkin, or that Marcus Stroman didn’t try to pitch through his nagging hip thing, but what’s done is done.
As of today:
Via MLB dot com
By math, the Cubs winning percentage (which is a decimal but whatever) is 0.517857 while the Reds are at 0.51754, so that’s why they’re above Cincinnati. Note that if the season ended today, the Cubs and Reds would probably be in a play-in game to fight for that final wild card spot, but for now the Cubs have two extra games to play and are one ahead in that critical loss column. They also aren’t that far away from the division lead, with 50 games to play. Here are the odds:
Via FanGraphs
It’s amazing what a few good series will do, and the Cubs have been on a tear, per this Tweet or Xeet or whatever they’re calling it, and sorry if it disappears whenever Elon and Zuckerberg finally kill each other in their alleged cage match:
Sixth-straight series win. 13 of the last 16. Cubs.
Swanson: 2B, BB, 2 RBI Happ: 2 RBI, R Bellinger: 2B, RBI, 2 R Candelario: 2 BB, RBI pic.twitter.com/b5uJbHjNlU
Since the Cubs are not going to win 50 straight games (although that would be fun), I’m hoping for three of every five going forward, which seems very doable given this schedule (with problem teams in bold):
August
3 @ Mets 3 @ TOR 2 v White Sox 3 v KC 3 @ DET 4 @ PIT 3 v MIL
September
4 @ CIN 3 v SF 4 v AZ 3 @ COL 3 @ AZ 3 v PIT 3 v COL 3 @ ATL 3 @ MIL (ends October 1)
While I don’t think the Cubs are going to run the table against Pittsburgh, that would be kind of fun and hilarious. August looks to be a much easier month, and the downward spiral for some of the Cubs’ opponents may be a good thing:
Mets traded five players and are 0-6 since the Trade Deadline
Reds acquired one reliever and are 0-6 since the Trade Deadline
D-backs acquired a closer and an OF and are 0-6 since the Trade Deadline
Angels acquired five players and are 0-6 since the Trade Deadline
Teams sure have a funny way of showing they actually want to win a wild-card berth since the trade deadline:#Dbacks lose 6 in a row.#Reds lose 6 in a row.#Angels lose 6 in a row.#Marlins lose 4 in a row.#Redsox lose 4 in a row#SFGiants lose 2 in a row to Oakland.
Putting aside the Nightengale curse, and the fact that trades haven’t helped the Diamondbacks, Reds, or Giants much, September might start easier before the Cubs head into trouble territory again. In my mind, the remaining 50 games in the schedule are fairly balanced in terms of “should be easier” and “might be tough” games. Winning two of every three games gets the team to 90 wins, while three of five gets them to 88 wins, both of which might be enough to secure the wild card and/or even the division if the Cubs triumph in their final head-to-heads against the Brewers and Reds.
Lots can happen between now and October, but it is fun to know that as of today, the Cubs are in, and sometimes, all you have to do is get in.
That was a fun series. Here’s some silly facts after the Cubs significantly improved their run differential.
The @Cubs have scored 150 runs in their first 20 games since the All-Star break, tied for the second most since the All-Star Break first took place in 1933, behind the California Angels with 161 in 1995. pic.twitter.com/mbMfaxyzJb
After the Draft, RC, Berselius, & BVS hang out to talk about the Cubs strategy, the All-Star festivities and what we liked versus what they need to change, and the usual stuff about whether this team is good enough to avoid a sell-off and make a pleasantly surprising postseason run.
You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.
I started thinking about this even before the Cubs laid a goose egg against the Cleveland Baseball Club the other night. I don’t actually recall the last time a club with a losing record, including the Cubs, had multiple All-Stars, but even though I’m not sharing tweets in case Elon Musk forgot to pay his server bill again, we heard from the players themselves that Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Dansby Swanson were selected to the All-Star Game, so that’s cool and all…
…except for the part where, as before, we lament the inconsistent offense and occasional missteps that have plagued this team while they stay within striking distance of a winnable division, yet have found themselves in a position where they have to hope other teams start losing. We are now a month from the trade deadline and the front office has been, well, overtly noncommittal to anything, from buying/selling to extending Marcus Stroman. I think we all kind of scratched our heads regarding the plan this offseason even after they had signed Swanson, but now there are some tidbits that are on my mind as we wait out this rain delay.
Christopher Morel: We waited through weeks and months’ worth of plate appearances given to guys like Luis Torrens, Edwin Rios, Miles Mastrobuoni, Eric Hosmer, and probably other guys I’ve tried to forget now as Morel killed minor league pitching and was not given as many reps as he probably should have gotten at third base. Granted that Nick Madrigal has been more than serviceable as a defensive third baseman and has suddenly shown an ability to get an occasional extra-base hit, but that seemed like a major waste and missed opportunity. Which brings us to…
Not doing more to shore up the offense: Despite the commitment of big money over the offseason, the fact that we still questioned the plan and had to squint to see what should have been a solid offense in a weak division suggests that more good bats could have been brought in to help this team out. I think many of us were high on Cody Bellinger and Trey Mancini and those moves were defensible, but I honestly don’t know what it is about putting on a Cubs uniform sometimes that makes supposedly good players forget how to hit. I imagine it has to do with good pitching always having the advantage, but that can only explain so much, right? And just like the Mets, we have the issue of…
Not clicking all at once: between the sometimes iffy bullpen, the obvious struggles for Jameson Taillon, and the occasional brain fart on defense, there is no margin for error for this team if they want to be competitive which stems from all those missed opportunities in both the offseason and in-game. It makes me wonder what the deal is with onboarding historically good starting pitchers and incorporating guys into the bullpen even with a vaunted Pitch Lab, but I’m guessing the baseball nerds who are smarter than me will just chalk that up to noise. An uncomfortable suspicion is that it might have to do with the coaching, no matter how likable they are, and maybe that’s something that needs to be addressed.
I think this team is obviously more talented than the one we were subjected to last year, and that’s what makes this middling performance even more flabbergasting, because like a misbehaving kid, we know they could be and should be better. I think a plan that improves the chances to success includes a better onboarding of pitching, a more malleable coaching scheme to help the hitters do what they are capable of, and strategy-building that squeezes as much as possible from the margins. This is very generic wording, but it makes sense, doesn’t it? Don’t give up outs, don’t do dumb stuff, because until the front office has a clear direction to shore up this new core that’s here for at least the next three years together, there is no room for error, and even when they’re better, stay vigilant to ensure that good habits stay and bad habits go away.
I still think guys like Seiya Suzuki can justify their contract, and that guys like Stroman are smart to keep around, but I guess we’ll see what happens once this rain delay is over and they actually start playing again. I wouldn’t mind a push for a playoff spot, but like we’ve been saying on the podcast for what seems like months now, honestly, we just want them to play better so we can see a path forward even if they fall short. Sometimes it sucks to be on the outside looking in, but when all we see are missed opportunities, I think that says something about the people entrusted to build this team…
Rice and Berselius hang out to basically kill half an hour talking about the Cubs, Trey Mancini’s shitty defense, some stuff about wildfires and the CBA, and wish everyone a fun Fourth of July as we prepare for the All-Star break and the trade deadline.
You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.
As you may have heard even if you did not get up in time for the games, the Cubs went to London and split the series with the Cardinals. Here’s from last time:
Per the division standings, the Cubs sit two games back of Milwaukee and are just 3.5 games back of Cincinnati.
Thanks to the game they didn’t play because two-game series, now that has become 2.5 games back of Milwaukee and three back of Cincinnati, which is kind of dumb because Cleveland didn’t do what they needed to, but the Reds did lose a pretty tight series to Atlanta. Does this mean the Reds are good? I don’t know, but they certainly looked the part, and it’s a good amount of fortune that the Cubs made up half a game on the leader.
Because of the re-balanced schedule, every game outside the division becomes much more interesting to me, so it would be nice for those division rivals to kind of tank those games. This may be easier for the opponent against the Reds, the wild-card leading Baltimore Orioles who would be sitting pretty if the Rays weren’t insanely good still despite figuratively missing some limbs. This is going to be an enigma for the Brewers, just a half-game back of said Reds, who have to play the Mets, and you all know how the Mets are doing. So we could see a different division leader by mid-week because of how close everyone is, and there’s a somewhat non-zero chance it could be the Cubs because the Phillies are having their own sets of issues, particularly on defense.
Updated from the last time:
Reds: 3 @ BAL, 3 vs SDP, 4 @ Nats, 3 @ Brewers (they also play the Brewers again coming out of the break)
Brewers: 4 @ Mets, 3 @ PIT, 4 vs Cubs, then those 3 against the Reds plus coming out of the break
Cardinals: 3 vs HOU, 3 vs Yankees, 4 @ Miami, 3 @ White Sox
Pirates: 3 vs SDP, 3 vs Brewers, 4 @ Dodgers, 3 @ Dbacks
Cubs: 3 vs PHI, 3 vs CLE, 4 @ Brewers (obviously the big series), 3 @ Yankees
With the off day as the Cubs try to reset their body clocks, we can instead do some scoreboard watching and will the Reds and Brewers to lose out. There were some encouraging signs from the London series even with the stupidity in the finale, and it’ll be up to the Cubs to take care of their own business with only one division matchup before the All-Star Game. A little help from outside the division will certainly be appreciated.
Given the lull between games as the Cubs traveled to London and have to do their whole tour and marketing thing before the weekend games, there isn’t much in the way of Cubs news especially since they aren’t getting any players in the next round of All-Star voting anyway. We talked a wee bit about London and All-Star stuff on the last Dreamcast but we also considered the rest of the season, where the Cubs still miraculously (or maybe not, it could go either way) have a shot at winning the division because the rest of the division is bad and I still don’t think the Reds are first-place good, although they certainly are on a tear and those wins still count.
I took a look at the playoff odds on FanGraphs the other day and then decided to wait for the Pirates to lose again before I did this. Over the weekend, all teams will be in action, and as of this moment, the odds say that the Brewers are still the odds-on favorite to win the Central while the Reds are projected to finish in fourth place behind the Cubs but just barely. Projections are good and all, but banked wins and losses still count, and it’s irksome to see a fumbling Cardinals team still projected with better odds to win the division than the Cubs. At least the Cubs have a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series, which is nonzero and triggers the Dumb and Dumber gif if I had it handy.
What is interesting is that behind the Brewers, the Cubs have the best odds of winning the Central, edging out the Cardinals and the Reds. It probably has to do with the remaining strength of schedule for all teams, but I don’t think the Reds care since they did dispatch the Astros and some other allegedly good team that I forgot in addition to mopping the floor with bottom dwellers. But this does make sense because if you look at the wild card standings, the Cubs are five games back of the Dodgers for that final spot, and they’d have to overtake the Brewers and Phillies to do it. We can reasonably assume that the Cubs are not catching the Dodgers, and if they have to leap the Brewers anyway, at that point they might as well just win the division.
Per the division standings, the Cubs sit two games back of Milwaukee and are just 3.5 games back of Cincinnati. Sweeping the Cardinals, which is always a tough ask even in a short two-game series, would bring the Cubs to 38-38 for a .500 record for the first time in a while. This weekend, I believe the only divisional matchup is this set in London between the Cardinals and the Cubs, while the others play outside their division.
Looking at the stretch before the All-Star Break, so up until July 9:
Reds: 3 vs ATL, 3 @ BAL, 3 vs SDP, 4 @ Nats, 3 @ Brewers (they also play the Brewers again coming out of the break)
Brewers: 3 @ CLE, 4 @ Mets, @ PIT, 4 vs Cubs, then those 3 against the Reds plus coming out of the break
Cardinals: 2 vs Cubs in London, 3 vs HOU, 3 vs Yankees, 4 @ Miami, 3 @ White Sox
Pirates: 4 @ Miami (including the one they already lost), 3 vs SDP, 3 vs Brewers, 4 @ Dodgers, 3 @ Dbacks
Cubs: 2 vs Cards in London, 3 vs PHI, 3 vs CLE, 4 @ Brewers (obviously the big series), 3 @ Yankees
I am not good enough at predicting baseball to say what will happen in these next couple weeks, but of course it would be nice for all the other teams to go 0-for while the Cubs run the table, at which point the wild card once again becomes a reality even if they stumble down the stretch. Every team the Cubs play have obvious flaws that can be exploited, but of course that can be said for the Cubs themselves. Nevertheless, everything starts with this weekend and getting back to .500, so go Cubs and may every other team implode like poorly designed submersibles.
