Time: 6:10 PM CST
TV: NBCSCH (This used to be Comcast Sports Net) (use this to find your channel)
Radio: 670 the Score
Cubs
Happ CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Schwarber LF
Russell SS
Zobrist 2B
Heyward RF
Darvish SP
Marlins
Brinson CF
Dietrich LF
Castro 2B
Bour 1B
Anderson 3B
Maybin RF
Rojas SS
Holaday C
Despaigne SP
It's been 2 games, but the Cubs have played basically 3. Both teams will have very shallow bullpens, so it's very important that Darvish go deep today. As a team, the Cubs are slashing .183/.309/.376. Baez gets the day off: starting the season 0-10, BB, 3 SO will earn you that.
Raicel Iglesias is a right-handed Cuban pitcher who defected in October of last year. His first attempt failed, after which he hid out until running out of food and water. Iglesias is sometimes known as Raisel (which I actually believe is correct), and commonly misspelled as Raciel. He pitched for Isla de la Juventud in Cuba’s National Series for three seasons, will turn 24 in April, and will be a free agent in the major leagues as long as he is cleared by OFAC prior to July 2nd.
Iglesias was used primarily as a reliever in Cuba, and he’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds. He has gained fans among scouts in the States by virtue of his recent performances with the National team. Here’s Ben Badler:
While Iglesias threw 88-92 mph at the WBC in March, he was more impressive on Cuba’s U.S. tour, where he threw 92-95 mph. Igelsias also added and subtracted from a sweepy 76-81 mph breaking ball, varying the shape on it to get a surprising number of swings and misses on the pitch.
Raicel Iglesias Stats
Tm
Age
G
GS
IP
W
L
AB
TBF
H
R
ER
ERA
K
BB
BBI
2B
3B
HR
2011
IJV
21
28
0
64
3
2
229
271
58
37
30
4.22
42
31
3
5
2
5
2012
IJV
22
30
3
76.7
1
1
282
344
72
33
28
3.29
53
54
5
10
2
3
2013
IJV
23
15
2
53.7
4
2
182
209
35
12
10
1.68
50
20
2
10
1
1
2013.5
IJV
23
15
0
29
0
7
117
131
37
20
18
5.59
24
10
3
4
1
2
Totals
88
5
223
8
12
810
955
202
102
86
3.47
169
115
13
29
6
11
Age
IP
ERA-
K/9
BB/9
H/9
HR/9
K%
BB%
GB%
HRCON-
BABIP-
2011
21
64
80
5.9
4.4
8.2
0.7
6
3
7
77
90
2012
22
76.7
76
6.2
6.3
8.5
0.4
6
9
-2
51
101
2013
23
53.7
46
8.4
3.4
5.9
0.2
15
2
-2
41
89
2013.5
23
29
125
7.4
3.1
11.5
0.6
9
-1
0
103
119
Totals
78
6.8
4.6
8.1
0.4
8.6
4.3
1.0
66
98
It’s been a while since I profiled a pitcher, and I’m changing the way I show the numbers a bit. The peripheral percentages shown here (K%, BB%, GB%) are relative to league average. Positive numbers are good for K’s and GB’s, while negative numbers are good for BB’s. For ERA, homerun per contact, and BABIP, on the other hand, the numbers shown are a ratio of the player’s stats to league average. Numbers less than 100 are below league average, which is good for homers and earned runs.
Cuban Comps
Given that Iglesias has primarily been used as a reliever, I don’t think it would be all that meaningful to compare him to recent high-profile defectors like Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa and Odrisamer Despaigne. Cub farmhand Armando Rivero, on the other hand, does seem like a pretty good comp.
Yr
Age
G
GS
IP
ERA-
K/9
BB/9
K%
BB%
GB%
HRCON-
BABIP-
Raicel Iglesias
12-13
22-23
60
5
159.3
77
7.2
4.7
9.5
4.8
-1.6
58
101
Armando Rivero
10-11
22-23
48
0
98.7
64
7.8
3.6
11.0
0.9
1.4
82
97
Iglesias pitched quite a bit more than Rivero, but his control wasn’t as good. Rivero signed with the Cubs for $3.1 million last year, and rose rapidly through the farm system. Given the similarities, $3 million is not a bad initial bet for what Iglesias will receive. Demand for Cuban pitchers may be a little soft right now, however, given that Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez has yet to impress in Phillies camp, and Dalier Hinojosa only received $4.25 million from the Red Sox, so Iglesias may actually come fairly cheap.
Video
Despaigne, Gonzalez, and Hinojosa
In case you are curious as to how the aformentioned defectors shake out in the new data that I’ve acquired, here you go:
YR
Age
G
GS
IP
ERA-
K/9
BB/9
K%
BB%
GB%
HRCON-
BABIP-
Miguel A. Gzlz
09-12
22-25
52
51
342
59
6.7
2
7.0
-4.1
3.7
67
96
Dalier Hinojosa
10-13
24-27
56
54
365
77
7.7
2.7
10.0
-1.8
-0.8
117
100
Odrisamer Desp.
11-13
24-26
68
68
442
77
6.6
3.7
7.2
1.1
7.7
72
96
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez was a good pitcher in Cuba; the numbers relative to league average illustrate that better than my previous post on the subject. Given the the change in his agreement with the Phillies (from $48 million initially down to $12 million), and the middling reports from spring training, I wonder whether he is completely healthy these days. Odrisamer Despaigne, who is unsigned, but has been cleared, was pretty good at generating ground balls.
The notable free agent news of the day is that the Cubs are unlikely to sign Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, per CSN’s Patrick Mooney. This is a good thing, I think, unless his price ends up dropping to the $10 million range. At that point, he might be a decent gamble.
The Cuban National Team is currently in the midst of a five-games series against a team of college players from the US. Lefty Misael Siverio took this opportunity to inconspicuously disappear into the ethnically-dense and culturally-rich city of Des Moines.
Siverio Scouting Report From Victor Mesa
Cuban National Team manager Victor Mesa told the USA today after the defection:
You may see the gentleman that defected working as a laborer. He came with us because he’s a left-hand thrower but he’s not that great of a pitcher.
That sharp intake of breath you just heard was the Red Sox’ front office gasping in admiration. That’s a grade 70 smear campaign right there. Agent Jaime Torres’s response seems to be along the lines of: “He’s left-handed, you idiots! Haven’t you ever heard of Jesse Orosco?” (Note: this is a loose translation.)
I would love to rebuke Mesa with the power of my spreadsheets, but I’m not sure he’s all that far off in his evaluation.
Video and Amateur Scouting Report
Siverio is twenty-four and was a starter for the Villa Clara team in la Serie Nacional that won the championship this year. He started twice in the final five-game set, which is available for online viewing. I have to admit that I find these games captivating, despite all the pointless noise from the stands. Cuban fans seem to have eschewed the vuvuzela craze in favor of actual trumpets, trombones, and something that sounds like a siren.
Misael’s main weapon seems to be a slow, sweeping curveball that he’s willing to throw in any count. His fastball sits at 86-87 miles per hour, and runs in on right-handed hitters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPzLtiROQ5A
Misael Siverio Stats
Tm
Age
G
GS
IP
W
L
AB
TBF
H
R
ER
ERA
K
BB
BBI
2B
3B
HR
2008
VC
19
22
16
51.7
5
2
62
26
4.53
48
28
5
2009
VC
20
29
4
66.0
6
2
50
12
1.64
64
31
4
2010
VC
21
30
1
67.3
5
3
272
300
82
36
35
4.68
79
22
5
9
1
7
2010*
VC
21
7
0
8.7
0
2
40
46
15
10
10
10.38
7
4
0
1
0
2
2011
VC
22
18
17
101.0
9
7
373
429
86
40
35
3.12
94
47
4
16
2
5
2011*
VC
22
3
2
10.3
1
2
35
44
7
6
5
4.36
4
5
1
1
0
1
2012
VC
23
20
13
80.0
5
5
312
359
93
37
33
3.71
55
38
4
18
2
3
2012*
VC
23
2
0
5.3
1
0
24
24
8
2
2
3.38
3
0
0
2
0
1
2013-1
VC
24
10
10
62.7
5
5
227
247
55
17
13
1.87
42
13
2
7
1
3
2013-2
VC
24
10
10
55.7
4
2
209
232
55
12
12
1.94
39
21
3
8
1
1
2013*
VC
24
2
2
10.0
0
0
36
40
11
4
4
3.60
4
1
0
2
0
1
Totals
153
75
518.7
41
30
524
187
3.24
439
210
33
Age
IP
K/9
BB/9
H/9
HR/9
K%
BB%
dt K/9
dt BB/9
dt HR/9
dt NERA
2008
19
51.7
8.4
4.9
10.8
0.9
8.1
5.1
1.4
4.56
2009
20
66.0
8.7
4.2
6.8
0.5
8.4
4.2
1
2.99
2010
21
67.3
10.6
2.9
11.0
0.9
26.3
7.3
10.4
3.6
1.3
5.39
2010*
21
8.7
7.3
4.2
15.6
2.1
15.2
8.7
2011
22
101.0
8.4
4.2
7.7
0.4
21.9
11.0
8.9
4.5
0.7
3.68
2011*
22
10.3
3.5
4.4
6.1
0.9
9.1
11.4
2012
23
80.0
6.2
4.3
10.5
0.3
15.3
10.6
2012*
23
5.3
5.1
0.0
13.5
1.7
12.5
0.0
2013-1
24
62.7
6.0
1.9
7.9
0.4
17.0
5.3
2013-2
24
55.7
6.3
3.4
8.9
0.2
16.8
9.1
2013*
24
10.0
3.6
0.9
9.9
0.9
10.0
2.5
518.67
7.6
3.6
9.1
0.6
*Playoffs
Notes: dt-prefixes indicate Clay Davenport’s translations. The 2013 season was split into a first half, in which everyone played, and a second in which 8 qualifying teams advanced.
The press has been trumpeting Siverio’s under-2 ERA in 2013, and this year does seem to have been a very good one for the pudgy left-hander, but I’m a little dubious as to the track record as a whole. After starting for most of the season as an 18-year old, Siverio was shifted to the bullpen for two years prior to a move back to the rotation at age 21. He also seems to have spent half the season in the ‘pen at age 23. When deciding whether to invest in a Cuban pitcher, “bounced in and out of the rotation” is not something you want to see on a resume. Let’s take a look at how he compares to some of the other defectors profiled so far.
I tried for at least three full seasons worth of recent data. For Siverio, I included his 2012, even though it includes 7 relief appearances mixed in with 13 starts. Siverio has an advantage in ERA, driven by his stellar results from 2013. Aside from that, his walk rate is higher than you would like, and his strikeout rate is not on the level of Dalier Hinojosa’s. His suppression of homeruns has been good, on the whole.
If you wanted to make the case for Siverio, it’s that he’s younger than the rest of the defectors, left-handed, and may have made some strides in 2013. Follow that path too frequently, and you may end up with more players in your AZL bullpen than you know what to do with. On the whole, I think that he and Odrisamer Despaigne are on a tier below Gonzalez and Hinojosa.
I have previously profiled Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Dalier Hinojosa. This time it’s Odrisamer Despaigne, who defected two weeks ago by walking away from the national team at an airport in Paris. No word yet whether the Cubs have interest, as Despaigne’s defection is much more recent than the other two. He has been working out in front of teams in Barcelona.
Defector Updates
Both Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Dalier Hinojosa have been cleared to sign with Major League teams by the Treasury. Any day now we can expect an announcement on those two.
Hot off the presses, another Cuban pitcher has defected. This time in it is Misael Siverio, who left the team last night in Des Moines. Jesse Sanchez is doing his part in carrying the water for his agents, shaving a year off his age in his tweeted announcement. Or not. Who knows? His stats actually look pretty good at first glance. I’ll profile him next.
I haven’t seen any updates or stats on Leandro Linares, the 19-year old who would be subject to international signing restrictions.
When we last saw Alfredo Despaigne, Cuba’s mini Bo Jackson, he was mercilessly taking Dalier Hinojosa deep. Now it turns out that he is playing in the Mexican League on loan from Cuba, and he is crushing. He has hit five homers in 86 plate appearances en route to a .366/.384/.598 line. I’m guessing that someone in Cuba is confident enough that Despaigne won’t defect to loan him to Mexico, but they have obviously been wrong on that front before. Outside of perhaps Jose Abreu, no other Cuban’s defection would make as big a splash as the three-time MVP. Fingers crossed that he comes over after the Dodgers waste all their money on other schlubs and before the Yankees end their bid to get under the luxury tax.
Odrisamer Despaigne Profile
Despaigne isn’t as big as Gonzalez or Hinojosa, checking in at 6’0″, 200 lbs. He is 26 and has pitched for Industriales in la Serie Nacional since he was 19. Unfortunately, I haven’t found any detailed scouting reports on his stuff, though I’m sure that sort of thing will be publicized soon enough. Youtube isn’t much help, either, as it only turns up the following video:
I’m fascinated by this because I don’t know what’s going on. From what I gather, Marti is a Miami-based news organization whose primary focus is the goings-on in Cuba. They are profiling the latest rash of defectors in beisbol, the latest being Odrisamer, and they interview a sportswriter who has himself defected, Raul Arce. Presumably they are discussing the logistics of such a defection. So far, so good. But then there is a call to la Serie Nacional that has all the trappings of “gotcha” investigative journalism, but whose purpose in unclear. Are they gloating? Trying to demonstrate Cuban baseball’s dishonesty and/or incompetence? Is there a corrupt member of the organization facilitating these defections?
Odrisamer Despaigne Stats
Team
Age
G
GS
IP
W
L
AB
TBF
H
R
ER
ERA
K
BB
BBI
2B
3B
HR
2006
Ind
19
23
1
60.7
3
1
64
26
3.86
34
29
4
2007
Ind
20
28
0
65.0
5
2
70
20
2.77
37
22
4
2008
Ind
21
34
0
83.3
3
5
78
35
3.78
47
26
3
2009
Ind
22
28
9
100.7
6
6
113
54
4.83
79
47
8
2010
Ind
23
20
20
117.3
10
7
439
515
116
63
56
4.30
106
55
4
18
3
7
2010*
Ind
23
6
6
37.3
3
1
140
165
37
12
9
2.17
27
19
0
3
1
1
2011
Ind
24
21
21
130.0
8
8
506
597
143
87
68
4.71
96
62
5
30
1
13
2012
Ind
25
24
24
169.3
13
8
602
699
131
56
49
2.60
128
66
2
16
1
6
2012*
Ind
25
6
6
50.7
5
1
182
201
43
10
9
1.60
32
11
2
5
1
0
2013-1
Ind
26
12
12
83.7
5
2
308
339
76
29
24
2.58
55
25
5
8
2
5
2013-2
Ind
26
11
11
59.3
5
3
227
269
63
32
28
4.25
43
28
3
10
2
1
Totals
957.3
61
43
934
378
3.55
684
390
52
Age
IP
K/9
BB/9
H/9
HR/9
K%
BB%
dt K/9
dt BB/9
dt H/9
dt HR/9
dt NERA
2006
19
60.7
5.0
4.3
9.5
0.6
4.6
4.6
9.2
1.0
4.87
2007
20
65.0
5.1
3.0
9.7
0.6
5.4
3.7
11.1
1.3
3.96
2008
21
83.3
5.1
2.8
8.4
0.3
4.8
3.1
7.7
0.7
4.38
2009
22
100.7
7.1
4.2
10.1
0.7
6.8
4.2
9
1.0
4.82
2010
23
117.3
8.1
4.2
8.9
0.5
20.6
10.7
8.4
4.7
8.3
0.7
4.52
2010*
23
37.3
6.5
4.6
8.9
0.2
16.4
11.5
2011
24
130.0
6.6
4.3
9.9
0.9
16.1
10.4
7.0
4.5
8.8
1.0
5.45
2012
25
169.3
6.8
3.5
7.0
0.3
18.3
9.4
2012*
25
50.7
5.7
2.0
7.6
0.0
15.9
5.5
2013-1
26
83.7
5.9
2.7
8.2
0.5
16.2
7.4
2013-2
26
59.3
6.5
4.2
9.6
0.2
16.0
10.4
Totals
957.3
6.4
3.7
8.8
0.5
*Playoffs
** The 2013 season was split into two halves, with 8 teams advancing from the first round robin to play in the second half
Despaigne is a workhorse. Neither Gonzalez nor Hinojosa ever started more than 20 combined games in the regular and post season, whereas Odrisamer has done it every year since being shifted to the rotation in 2010. In 2012 he managed 30 starts and 220 innings between the regular season and playoffs, an impressive total in a league whose regular season is only 96 games long. In the 2012 playoffs, he averaged eight and a half innings in six starts, going 5-1. Clutch. Here is how he compares to Gonzalez and Hinojosa overall from 2010-2013:
G
GS
IP
TBF
K/9
BB/9
H/9
HR/9
K%
BB%
ERA
WHIP
Mig Alf G
40
38
245
1021
6.2
2.3
8.8
0.6
16.5
6.2
3.49
1.23
Dalier
62
59
396.7
1689
7.7
2.7
9.0
1.0
20.1
7.1
3.79
1.31
Odris
100
100
647.7
2785
6.8
3.7
8.5
0.5
17.5
9.6
3.38
1.35
Overall, Odrisamer has a strange profile. His K-rate is slightly better than Gonzalez’s, but his control is easily the worst of the three. What he does seem to do well is prevent runs. He sports a lower hit rate against than either of the other two, and his home run rate is also very good. Who knows? Maybe he throws a knuckleball.
Overall, though, his numbers definitely don’t point to a pitcher who is a safe bet for a big investment. Of the three, I would probably bet on Dalier, despite the homers.
Last week, I profiled Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, a Cuban defector drawing lots of attention on the free agent market. Gonzalez is still seeking approval from the US Treasury, but could sign with the Dodgers an MLB team soon. Dalier Hinojosa is also a right-hander looking for work. He defected a month after Gonzalez, but has received a fraction of the hype. Hinojosa has been connected to the Cubs, and I would guess that he has a decent shot of signing with the team. Hinojosa is 27, and is thus not subject to MLB’s international free agent budget restrictions.
Scouting Profile
Hinojosa is 6’2″, 210 pounds. At 27, he’s a year older than Gonzalez (allegedly), and actually has a relatively high profile on the interational scene. Twice he thrown perfect games in international competition, though both were less than nine innings. The first was a seven-inning affair against Sri-Lanka in the 2010 World University Chamionships, in which Dailer struck out 16 of the 21 batters he faced. The second was against Hong Kong in the 2010 Intercontinental Cup, and lasted only five innings. Both games seem to have been ended via the mercy rule, a decent reminder that no matter how bad Gerardo Concepcion is, Cuba still plays at a really high level compared to the rest of the world. Hinojosa allegedly throws a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s along with a slider, curve, and change.
As before, the “dt” prefix indicates a Davenport Translation. Unlike Gonzalez, Hinojosa has put up a pretty respectable strikeout rate, especially relative to his K-challenged league. Here’s a more refined breakdown of the two:
G
GS
IP
TBF
K/9
BB/9
H/9
HR/9
K%
BB%
ERA
WHIP
Mig Alf G
40
38
245
1021
6.2
2.3
8.8
0.6
16.5
6.2
3.49
1.23
Hinojosa
62
59
396.7
1689
7.7
2.7
9.0
1.0
20.1
7.1
3.79
1.31
These numbers are totals for 2010-2013, la Serie Nacional only. Hinojosa has a significantly larger sample, as Gonzalez was suspended for much of the 2012 season. More or less this data encompasses Gonzalez’s full season numbers for his age 23 and 24 year old seasons, and Hinojosa’s for ages 24-26. Dalier has the significant edge in strikeout rate, though gives back a bit in control. Where Dalier really suffers, though, is in his homerun rate; he really seems to have a dinger problem. Ordinarily I might take a wild stab at attributing this to the size of his home park, but we all know Guantanamo, his home team, plays in a massive, nearly-impenetrable facility.
As mentioned, I wouldn’t be surprised if he signs with the Cubs, especially if his price tag is significantly lower than the one attached to Gonzalez via rumor. Next up is Odrisamer Despaigne, who walked away from the team in a French airport last week. Cuban security is not what it used to be.
